Data Source: from January 1994 to December 2021
Last Update: 31 December 2021
The Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderate Portfolio is exposed for 53% on the Stock Market.
It's a High Risk portfolio and it can be replicated with 12 ETFs.
In the last 10 years, the portfolio obtained a 8.83% compound annual return, with a 7.49% standard deviation.
In the last 25 years, a 7.55% compound annual return, with a 8.73% standard deviation.
Asset Allocation and ETFs
The Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderate Portfolio has the following asset allocation:
The Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderate Portfolio can be replicated with the following ETFs:
| Weight | Ticker | ETF Name | Investment Themes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19.00 % | VUG | Vanguard Growth | Equity, U.S., Large Cap, Growth | |
| 13.00 % | VEU | Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US | Equity, Global ex-US, Large Cap | |
| 12.00 % | VTV | Vanguard Value | Equity, U.S., Large Cap, Value | |
| 5.00 % | EEM | iShares MSCI Emerging Markets | Equity, Emerging Markets, Large Cap | |
| 2.00 % | IJS | iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value | Equity, U.S., Small Cap, Value | |
| 2.00 % | IJT | iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Growth | Equity, U.S., Small Cap, Growth | |
| 14.00 % | IEI | iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond | Bond, U.S., Intermediate-Term | |
| 14.00 % | LQD | iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond | Bond, U.S., All-Term | |
| 11.00 % | MBB | iShares MBS | Bond, U.S., Long-Term | |
| 4.00 % | HYG | iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond | Bond, U.S., Intermediate-Term | |
| 2.00 % | BIL | SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill | Bond, U.S., Ultra Short-Term | |
| 2.00 % | BNDX | Vanguard Total International Bond | Bond, Developed Markets, All-Term |
Portfolio and ETF Returns
The Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderate Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.
| 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y(*) | 5Y(*) | 10Y(*) | 20Y(*) | 25Y(*) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderate Portfolio | +2.01 | +3.77 | +2.82 | +9.66 | +14.26 | +10.38 | +8.83 | +7.55 | +7.55 |
| --- Inflation Adjusted return | +1.53 | +1.53 | -0.56 | +2.37 | +10.36 | +7.25 | +6.57 | +5.12 | +5.14 |
| Components | |||||||||
|
VUG Vanguard Growth |
+1.57 | +10.75 | +12.16 | +27.34 | +34.75 | +24.75 | +19.30 | +10.83 | +10.88 |
|
VEU Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US |
+3.69 | +1.96 | -1.37 | +8.28 | +13.60 | +9.89 | +7.57 | +6.87 | +5.48 |
|
VTV Vanguard Value |
+6.95 | +9.34 | +8.31 | +26.51 | +17.58 | +12.48 | +13.74 | +8.48 | +8.66 |
|
EEM iShares MSCI Emerging Markets |
+1.53 | -1.57 | -10.09 | -3.61 | +10.06 | +9.16 | +4.73 | +8.87 | +5.94 |
|
IJS iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value |
+4.12 | +4.30 | +0.09 | +30.53 | +18.47 | +10.04 | +13.33 | +9.82 | +10.48 |
|
IJT iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Growth |
+4.86 | +6.91 | +5.11 | +22.37 | +20.85 | +14.08 | +15.16 | +11.20 | +10.39 |
|
IEI iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond |
-0.40 | -0.91 | -1.01 | -2.54 | +3.28 | +2.48 | +1.84 | +3.90 | +4.58 |
|
LQD iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond |
-0.03 | +0.38 | -0.08 | -1.85 | +8.53 | +5.66 | +4.94 | +5.65 | +5.93 |
|
MBB iShares MBS |
-0.13 | -0.64 | -0.49 | -1.43 | +2.89 | +2.39 | +2.06 | +3.40 | +4.13 |
|
HYG iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond |
+2.28 | +0.77 | +1.12 | +3.75 | +7.34 | +5.14 | +5.23 | +5.81 | +5.51 |
|
BIL SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill |
0.00 | -0.03 | -0.04 | -0.10 | +0.77 | +0.95 | +0.45 | +1.12 | +1.86 |
|
BNDX Vanguard Total International Bond |
-0.74 | -0.14 | -0.17 | -2.28 | +3.32 | +3.03 | +3.80 | +4.96 | +5.22 |
- a rebalancing of the components at the beginning of each year (i.e. at every January 1st)
- the reinvestment of dividends
Inflation is updated to Dec 2021. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 7.12% , 3Y: 3.53% , 5Y: 2.92% , 10Y: 2.12% , 20Y: 2.31% , 25Y: 2.29%
In 2021, the portfolio granted a 1.77% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderate Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.
Historical Returns
Historical returns and stats of Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderate Portfolio. Total Returns and Inflation Adjusted Returns are both mentioned.
| Period | Return Dec 2021 update |
Return Inflation Adjusted |
Standard Deviation(*) |
Max Drawdown |
Months Pos - Neg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1M
Dec 2021
|
+2.01%
|
+1.53%
|
0.00%
|
1 - 0
|
|
|
3M
|
+3.77%
|
+1.53%
|
-1.14%
Nov 2021 - Nov 2021
|
2 - 1
|
|
|
6M
|
+2.82%
|
-0.56%
|
-2.75%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
|
4 - 2
|
|
|
YTD
|
+9.66%
|
+2.37%
|
5.19%
|
-2.75%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
|
9 - 3
75% pos
|
|
1Y
|
+9.66%
|
+2.37%
|
5.19%
|
-2.75%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
|
9 - 3
75% pos
|
|
3Y
|
+14.26%
annualized
|
+10.36%
annualized
|
9.57%
|
-10.96%
Feb 2020 - Mar 2020
|
27 - 9
75% pos
|
|
5Y
|
+10.38%
annualized
|
+7.25%
annualized
|
8.43%
|
-10.96%
Feb 2020 - Mar 2020
|
44 - 16
73% pos
|
|
10Y
|
+8.83%
annualized
|
+6.57%
annualized
|
7.49%
|
-10.96%
Feb 2020 - Mar 2020
|
83 - 37
69% pos
|
|
20Y
|
+7.55%
annualized
|
+5.12%
annualized
|
8.53%
|
-29.58%
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
|
158 - 82
66% pos
|
|
25Y
|
+7.55%
annualized
|
+5.14%
annualized
|
8.73%
|
-29.58%
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
|
195 - 105
65% pos
|
|
MAX
01 Jan 1994
|
+7.87%
annualized
|
+5.40%
annualized
|
8.50%
|
-29.58%
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
|
222 - 114
66% pos
|
Portfolio efficiency
Is the Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderate Portfolio actually efficient, compared to other Lazy Portfolios?
Best Classic Portfolios, with High Risk, ordered by 25 Years annualized return.
25 Years Stats |
% Allocation |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | Return▾ | Drawdown | Stocks | Bonds | Comm. | ||
| Simple Path to Wealth JL Collins |
+8.96% | -38.54% | 75 | 25 | 0 | Compare | |
| Yale Endowment David Swensen |
+8.94% | -39.46% | 70 | 30 | 0 | Compare | |
| Talmud Portfolio Roger Gibson |
+8.80% | -40.18% | 66.67 | 33.33 | 0 | Compare | |
| Late Sixties and Beyond Burton Malkiel |
+8.63% | -41.80% | 71 | 29 | 0 | Compare | |
| Lazy Portfolio David Swensen |
+8.41% | -40.88% | 70 | 30 | 0 | Compare | |
Our overall ratings, assigned to the Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderate Portfolio. The portfolio is classified as High Risk.
Less than 25%
25% - 49.99%
50% - 74.99%
At least 75%
| High Risk Portfolios |
All Portfolios |
||
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Years Ann. Return (Inflation Adjusted) |
+7.55%
(+5.14%) |
Average : 2.5 / 5
|
Good : 3.3 / 5
|
| Standard Deviation over 25 Years |
8.73% |
Excellent : 4.3 / 5
|
Good : 3.6 / 5
|
| Maximum Drawdown over 25 Years |
-29.58% |
Excellent : 5 / 5
|
Good : 3.2 / 5
|
| Easy to manage | 12 ETFs |
Poor : 1 / 5
|
Poor : 1 / 5
|
| Rating assigned considering all the High Risk Portfolios | Rating assigned considering all the Portfolios in the database |
Capital Growth
An investment of 1000$, since January 1997, now would be worth 6168.28$, with a total return of 516.83% (7.55% annualized).
The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 3502.50$, with a net total return of 250.25% (5.14% annualized).
Drawdowns
Worst drawdowns since January 1997 - Chart and Data
Drawdown period |
Recovery period |
Total |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drawdown | Start | Bottom | #Months | End | #Months | #Months |
| -29.58% | Nov 2007 | Feb 2009 | 16 | Apr 2010 | 14 | 30 |
| -15.42% | Sep 2000 | Sep 2002 | 25 | Oct 2003 | 13 | 38 |
| -10.96% | Feb 2020 | Mar 2020 | 2 | Jul 2020 | 4 | 6 |
| -9.65% | May 2011 | Sep 2011 | 5 | Feb 2012 | 5 | 10 |
| -7.97% | Jul 1998 | Aug 1998 | 2 | Nov 1998 | 3 | 5 |
| -7.17% | Sep 2018 | Dec 2018 | 4 | Mar 2019 | 3 | 7 |
| -6.44% | May 2015 | Feb 2016 | 10 | Jun 2016 | 4 | 14 |
| -5.89% | May 2010 | Jun 2010 | 2 | Sep 2010 | 3 | 5 |
| -4.35% | Apr 2012 | May 2012 | 2 | Aug 2012 | 3 | 5 |
| -4.08% | Aug 1997 | Aug 1997 | 1 | Jan 1998 | 5 | 6 |
| -3.85% | Apr 2000 | May 2000 | 2 | Aug 2000 | 3 | 5 |
| -3.52% | Feb 2018 | Apr 2018 | 3 | Aug 2018 | 4 | 7 |
| -3.06% | May 2019 | May 2019 | 1 | Jun 2019 | 1 | 2 |
| -3.02% | Jan 2000 | Jan 2000 | 1 | Mar 2000 | 2 | 3 |
| -2.87% | Sep 2020 | Oct 2020 | 2 | Nov 2020 | 1 | 3 |
| -2.82% | Apr 2004 | Apr 2004 | 1 | Sep 2004 | 5 | 6 |
| -2.80% | May 2013 | Jun 2013 | 2 | Jul 2013 | 1 | 3 |
| -2.75% | Sep 2021 | Sep 2021 | 1 | Oct 2021 | 1 | 2 |
| -2.46% | May 2006 | May 2006 | 1 | Aug 2006 | 3 | 4 |
| -2.45% | Mar 2005 | Apr 2005 | 2 | Jun 2005 | 2 | 4 |
Rolling Returns ( more details)
Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderate Portfolio: annualized rolling and average returns
| Return (*) | Negative Periods |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rolling Period | Average | Best | Worst | |
| 1 Year |
+8.39% |
+36.29% Mar 2009 - Feb 2010 |
-25.06% Mar 2008 - Feb 2009 |
17.85% |
| 2 Years |
+7.96% |
+25.19% Mar 2009 - Feb 2011 |
-11.86% Mar 2007 - Feb 2009 |
11.82% |
| 3 Years |
+7.69% |
+18.22% Mar 2009 - Feb 2012 |
-5.06% Mar 2006 - Feb 2009 |
7.31% |
| 5 Years |
+7.33% |
+15.33% Jan 1995 - Dec 1999 |
+0.08% Mar 2004 - Feb 2009 |
0.00% |
| 7 Years |
+7.00% |
+10.50% May 1994 - Apr 2001 |
+2.57% Mar 2002 - Feb 2009 |
0.00% |
| 10 Years |
+7.07% |
+9.97% Mar 2009 - Feb 2019 |
+2.74% Mar 1999 - Feb 2009 |
0.00% |
| 15 Years |
+6.88% |
+8.31% Feb 2003 - Jan 2018 |
+5.55% Feb 2001 - Jan 2016 |
0.00% |
| 20 Years |
+6.99% |
+8.25% Dec 1994 - Nov 2014 |
+5.44% Apr 2000 - Mar 2020 |
0.00% |
* Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods
If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderate Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.
Seasonality
Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderate Portfolio Seasonality: in which months is it better to invest?
In the table below, the average monthly return is represented.
Below each return, it's also mentioned the probability of obtaining a positive monthly result (Win %).
Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.
| Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return (%) | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
| Average Win % |
0.51 64% |
0.16 54% |
0.48 71% |
1.64 79% |
0.37 64% |
0.47 64% |
0.87 64% |
0.09 64% |
0.15 57% |
0.83 64% |
1.13 68% |
1.26 79% |
| Best Year |
5.4 2019 |
4.0 1998 |
5.1 2009 |
6.9 2009 |
4.9 2009 |
4.4 2019 |
6.0 2009 |
3.1 2020 |
5.3 2010 |
6.5 2011 |
6.8 2020 |
5.1 2008 |
| Worst Year |
-5.4 2009 |
-6.0 2009 |
-7.9 2020 |
-2.8 2004 |
-4.7 2010 |
-4.4 2008 |
-3.8 2002 |
-7.8 1998 |
-7.0 2008 |
-10.0 2008 |
-3.2 2000 |
-3.5 2018 |
For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
Monthly/Yearly Returns
Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderate Portfolio monthly and yearly returns: how is the distribution of the returns recorded so far?
Yearly Return(%) |
Monthly Return(%) |
|||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Total | Infl.Adj | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
| 2021 |
+9.66 | +2.37 | -0.1 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 1.3 | -2.8 | 2.9 | -1.1 | 2.0 |
| 2020 |
+13.88 | +12.42 | 0.1 | -3.3 | -7.9 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 3.7 | 3.1 | -1.8 | -1.1 | 6.8 | 2.8 |
| 2019 |
+19.44 | +16.79 | 5.4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | -3.1 | 4.4 | 0.3 | -0.2 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 2.1 |
| 2018 |
-4.47 | -6.27 | 2.6 | -2.7 | -0.5 | -0.3 | 1.1 | -0.2 | 1.9 | 1.1 | -0.1 | -4.8 | 1.1 | -3.5 |
| 2017 |
+15.00 | +12.64 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| 2016 |
+7.31 | +5.15 | -2.5 | 0.0 | 4.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 2.5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | -1.5 | 0.0 | 1.2 |
| 2015 |
-1.02 | -1.64 | 0.0 | 2.7 | -1.0 | 1.4 | -0.1 | -1.6 | 0.7 | -3.8 | -1.4 | 4.1 | -0.3 | -1.6 |
| 2014 |
+6.15 | +5.47 | -1.7 | 2.9 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 1.8 | 1.2 | -1.0 | 2.4 | -2.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | -0.8 |
| 2013 |
+12.89 | +11.21 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | -0.7 | -2.1 | 3.1 | -1.7 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| 2012 |
+11.74 | +9.80 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 0.6 | -0.1 | -4.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.8 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 1.4 |
| 2011 |
+1.36 | -1.65 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 2.7 | -0.4 | -1.0 | -0.3 | -3.3 | -5.0 | 6.5 | -1.0 | 0.7 |
| 2010 |
+11.88 | +10.30 | -1.9 | 1.7 | 3.5 | 1.1 | -4.7 | -1.2 | 4.9 | -1.6 | 5.3 | 2.3 | -0.9 | 3.4 |
| 2009 |
+21.52 | +18.20 | -5.4 | -6.0 | 5.1 | 6.9 | 4.9 | 0.2 | 6.0 | 1.7 | 3.6 | -1.5 | 3.9 | 1.0 |
| 2008 |
-18.62 | -18.60 | -2.8 | -0.6 | -0.3 | 2.8 | 0.5 | -4.4 | -0.8 | -0.1 | -7.0 | -10.0 | -1.9 | 5.1 |
| 2007 |
+8.20 | +3.93 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 2.4 | 1.6 | -0.6 | -1.3 | 1.2 | 3.3 | 2.4 | -2.1 | -0.6 |
| 2006 |
+12.10 | +9.34 | 2.7 | -0.1 | 0.8 | 1.3 | -2.5 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2005 |
+6.80 | +3.35 | -0.8 | 1.6 | -1.9 | -0.6 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.9 | -1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 |
| 2004 |
+10.27 | +6.70 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | -2.8 | 0.4 | 1.4 | -1.6 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 2.5 |
| 2003 |
+21.24 | +18.82 | -1.5 | -0.3 | 0.1 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 3.8 |
| 2002 |
-5.21 | -7.50 | -0.4 | -0.1 | 1.7 | -0.9 | 0.1 | -3.1 | -3.8 | 1.2 | -4.0 | 3.0 | 2.5 | -1.2 |
| 2001 |
-2.83 | -4.36 | 2.8 | -4.3 | -3.5 | 3.7 | 0.2 | -1.1 | 0.2 | -1.7 | -4.2 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 0.5 |
| 2000 |
-1.46 | -4.73 | -3.0 | 1.1 | 3.7 | -2.4 | -1.5 | 3.1 | -1.1 | 3.1 | -2.4 | -0.7 | -3.2 | 2.1 |
| 1999 |
+14.10 | +11.13 | 1.5 | -2.4 | 2.9 | 2.9 | -2.1 | 3.0 | -1.1 | -0.4 | -0.3 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 4.5 |
| 1998 |
+14.87 | +13.05 | 1.1 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 0.6 | -1.3 | 1.4 | -0.2 | -7.8 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 2.9 |
| 1997 |
+14.53 | +12.62 | 2.2 | 0.7 | -2.3 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 4.2 | -4.1 | 3.7 | -2.7 | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| 1996 |
+10.99 | +7.37 | 1.9 | -0.3 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.6 | -2.4 | 1.0 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 4.1 | -1.2 |
| 1995 |
+22.46 | +19.44 | 0.6 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 0.2 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 2.7 | 1.9 |
| 1994 |
-0.46 | -2.98 | 3.3 | -2.2 | -3.7 | 0.7 | 0.6 | -0.7 | 2.0 | 2.4 | -1.9 | 1.2 | -2.6 | 0.7 |
* Note: Portofolio Returns, up to December 2013, are simulated. They have been calculated using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.
In particular, it has been used:
- VUG - Vanguard Growth: simulated historical serie, up to December 2004
- VEU - Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
- VTV - Vanguard Value: simulated historical serie, up to December 2004
- EEM - iShares MSCI Emerging Markets: simulated historical serie, up to December 2003
- IJS - iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value: simulated historical serie, up to December 2000
- IJT - iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Growth: simulated historical serie, up to December 2000
- IEI - iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
- LQD - iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond: simulated historical serie, up to December 2002
- MBB - iShares MBS: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
- HYG - iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
- BIL - SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
- BNDX - Vanguard Total International Bond: simulated historical serie, up to December 2013