Data Source: from March 1987 to August 2022
Consolidated Returns as of 31 August 2022
Live Update: Sep 23 2022
PORTFOLIO • LIVE PERFORMANCE (USD currency)
1.43%
1 Day
Sep 23 2022
6.00%
Current Month
September 2022

The Marc Faber Portfolio is a High Risk portfolio and can be implemented with 6 ETFs.

It's exposed for 50% on the Stock Market and for 25% on Commodities.

In the last 30 Years, the Marc Faber Portfolio obtained a 7.57% compound annual return, with a 9.27% standard deviation.

Asset Allocation and ETFs

The Marc Faber Portfolio has the following asset allocation:

50% Stocks
25% Fixed Income
25% Commodities

The Marc Faber Portfolio can be implemented with the following ETFs:

Weight Ticker ETF Name Investment Themes
25.00 %
VNQ Vanguard Real Estate Real Estate, U.S.
13.00 %
VV Vanguard Large-Cap Equity, U.S., Large Cap
8.00 %
VEA Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Equity, EAFE, Large Cap
4.00 %
EEM iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Equity, Emerging Markets, Large Cap
25.00 %
BND Vanguard Total Bond Market Bond, U.S., All-Term
25.00 %
GLD SPDR Gold Trust Commodity, Gold
Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

Portfolio and ETF Returns

The Marc Faber Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.

According to the available data source, let's assume we built the portfolio on March 1987.

Portfolio returns are calculated in USD, assuming: September 2022 return is calculated on the hypothesis of a newly built portfolio, with the starting asset allocation.
MARC FABER PORTFOLIO RETURNS
Consolidated returns as of 31 August 2022
Live Update: Sep 23 2022
Swipe left to see all data
  Chg (%) Return (%)
Return (%) as of Aug 31, 2022
  1 Day Time ET(*) Sep 2022 1M 6M 1Y 5Y(*) 10Y(*) 30Y(*)
Marc Faber Portfolio -1.43 -6.00 -3.92 -9.71 -11.20 4.94 4.81 7.57
US Inflation Adjusted return -3.89 -13.51 -17.98 1.07 2.21 4.94
Components
VNQ
Vanguard Real Estate
-1.33 Sep 23 2022 -9.32 -6.01 -8.22 -11.98 5.92 7.50 9.48
VV
Vanguard Large-Cap
-1.84 Sep 23 2022 -6.61 -3.88 -9.63 -13.29 11.67 12.96 9.98
VEA
Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets
-3.27 Sep 23 2022 -8.27 -5.82 -14.09 -20.21 1.96 5.41 5.12
EEM
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets
-2.47 Sep 23 2022 -8.75 -1.33 -14.89 -22.97 -0.38 2.12 6.05
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
-0.28 Sep 23 2022 -3.28 -2.80 -7.85 -11.72 0.49 1.21 4.51
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust
-1.73 Sep 23 2022 -3.93 -2.94 -10.71 -6.14 4.83 -0.31 5.26
(*) Returns over 1 year are annualized
(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)

US Inflation is updated to Aug 2022. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 8.26% , 5Y: 3.82% , 10Y: 2.54% , 30Y: 2.51%

COMPONENTS MONTHLY CORRELATIONS
Monthly correlations as of 31 August 2022
Swipe left to see all data
 
 
 
 
 
 
Asset VNQ VV VEA EEM BND GLD
VNQ
1.00
0.90
0.84
0.46
0.45
0.41
VV
0.90
1.00
0.92
0.64
0.69
0.27
VEA
0.84
0.92
1.00
0.75
0.67
0.27
EEM
0.46
0.64
0.75
1.00
0.53
0.03
BND
0.45
0.69
0.67
0.53
1.00
-0.01
GLD
0.41
0.27
0.27
0.03
-0.01
1.00
 
 
 
 
 
 
Asset VNQ VV VEA EEM BND GLD
VNQ
1.00
0.80
0.75
0.53
0.42
0.16
VV
0.80
1.00
0.91
0.72
0.36
0.15
VEA
0.75
0.91
1.00
0.83
0.32
0.16
EEM
0.53
0.72
0.83
1.00
0.24
0.22
BND
0.42
0.36
0.32
0.24
1.00
0.36
GLD
0.16
0.15
0.16
0.22
0.36
1.00
 
 
 
 
 
 
Asset VNQ VV VEA EEM BND GLD
VNQ
1.00
0.68
0.62
0.45
0.48
0.13
VV
0.68
1.00
0.87
0.66
0.25
0.05
VEA
0.62
0.87
1.00
0.81
0.26
0.08
EEM
0.45
0.66
0.81
1.00
0.24
0.21
BND
0.48
0.25
0.26
0.24
1.00
0.40
GLD
0.13
0.05
0.08
0.21
0.40
1.00
 
 
 
 
 
 
Asset VNQ VV VEA EEM BND GLD
VNQ
1.00
0.60
0.58
0.50
0.26
0.12
VV
0.60
1.00
0.81
0.71
0.11
0.02
VEA
0.58
0.81
1.00
0.78
0.10
0.17
EEM
0.50
0.71
0.78
1.00
0.09
0.24
BND
0.26
0.11
0.10
0.09
1.00
0.26
GLD
0.12
0.02
0.17
0.24
0.26
1.00
 
 
 
 
 
 
Asset VNQ VV VEA EEM BND GLD
VNQ
1.00
0.60
0.52
0.47
0.25
0.08
VV
0.60
1.00
0.73
0.68
0.14
-0.04
VEA
0.52
0.73
1.00
0.67
0.08
0.13
EEM
0.47
0.68
0.67
1.00
0.13
0.11
BND
0.25
0.14
0.08
0.13
1.00
0.16
GLD
0.08
-0.04
0.13
0.11
0.16
1.00

Portfolio Dividends

In 2021, the Marc Faber Portfolio granted a 1.94% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Marc Faber Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.

Historical Returns as of Aug 31, 2022

Historical returns and stats of Marc Faber Portfolio. Total Returns and Inflation Adjusted Returns are both mentioned.

MARC FABER PORTFOLIO
Consolidated returns as of 31 August 2022
Data Source: from March 1987 to August 2022
Swipe left to see all data
Period Return (%)
as of Aug 2022
Return (%)
Infl.Adj.
Standard
Deviation (%)
Max
Drawdown (%)
Months
Pos - Neg
1M
Aug 2022
-3.92
-3.89
-3.92
Aug 2022 - Aug 2022
0 - 1
3M
-5.24
-6.48
-5.24
Jun 2022 - Aug 2022
1 - 2
6M
-9.71
-13.51
-11.03
Apr 2022 - Aug 2022
2 - 4
YTD
-13.72
-18.78
-13.72
Jan 2022 - Aug 2022
2 - 6
1Y
-11.20
-17.98
11.34
-13.72
Jan 2022 - Aug 2022
4 - 8
33% pos
3Y(*)
3.82
-1.03
11.31
-13.72
Jan 2022 - Aug 2022
20 - 16
56% pos
5Y(*)
4.94
1.07
9.79
-13.72
Jan 2022 - Aug 2022
36 - 24
60% pos
10Y(*)
4.81
2.21
8.61
-13.72
Jan 2022 - Aug 2022
70 - 50
58% pos
15Y(*)
6.00
3.53
11.02
-28.82
Jun 2008 - Feb 2009
106 - 74
59% pos
20Y(*)
8.10
5.46
10.36
-28.82
Jun 2008 - Feb 2009
148 - 92
62% pos
25Y(*)
7.29
4.70
9.85
-28.82
Jun 2008 - Feb 2009
187 - 113
62% pos
30Y(*)
7.57
4.94
9.27
-28.82
Jun 2008 - Feb 2009
228 - 132
63% pos
MAX(*)
01 Mar 1987
7.38
4.47
8.93
-28.82
Jun 2008 - Feb 2009
273 - 153
64% pos
(*) Returns over 1 year are annualized

Returns and stats are calculated assuming a yearly rebalancing of the components weight. How do returns change with different rebalancing strategies?

Capital Growth as of Aug 31, 2022

An investment of 1000$, since September 1992, now would be worth 8927.59$, with a total return of 792.76% (7.57% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 4247.20$, with a net total return of 324.72% (4.94% annualized).
An investment of 1000$, since March 1987, now would be worth 12531.76$, with a total return of 1153.18% (7.38% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 4722.08$, with a net total return of 372.21% (4.47% annualized).

Drawdowns

Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months
-28.82% Jun 2008 Feb 2009 9 Mar 2010 13 22
-13.72% Jan 2022 Aug 2022 8 in progress 8
-11.30% Feb 2020 Mar 2020 2 Jul 2020 4 6
-10.47% May 1998 Aug 1998 4 Apr 1999 8 12
-7.96% Sep 2011 Sep 2011 1 Jan 2012 4 5
-7.74% Feb 2015 Sep 2015 8 Apr 2016 7 15
-7.73% Aug 2016 Nov 2016 4 Jul 2017 8 12
-7.35% Apr 2004 Apr 2004 1 Sep 2004 5 6
-7.32% May 2013 Jun 2013 2 Feb 2014 8 10
-6.80% Jun 2002 Oct 2002 5 May 2003 7 12
-6.45% Feb 1994 Nov 1994 10 May 1995 6 16
-5.23% Feb 2018 Dec 2018 11 Jan 2019 1 12
-4.70% May 2012 May 2012 1 Aug 2012 3 4
-4.55% Jun 2007 Jul 2007 2 Sep 2007 2 4
-4.37% Feb 2001 Mar 2001 2 Jun 2001 3 5
-4.12% Sep 2014 Sep 2014 1 Jan 2015 4 5
-3.91% Sep 2020 Oct 2020 2 Dec 2020 2 4
-3.86% May 2010 Jun 2010 2 Sep 2010 3 5
-3.70% Sep 2021 Sep 2021 1 Dec 2021 3 4
-3.69% May 1999 Aug 1999 4 Nov 1999 3 7
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months
-28.82% Jun 2008 Feb 2009 9 Mar 2010 13 22
-13.72% Jan 2022 Aug 2022 8 in progress 8
-11.30% Feb 2020 Mar 2020 2 Jul 2020 4 6
-10.47% May 1998 Aug 1998 4 Apr 1999 8 12
-8.47% Jan 1990 Oct 1990 10 Feb 1991 4 14
-8.47% Sep 1987 Oct 1987 2 Oct 1988 12 14
-7.96% Sep 2011 Sep 2011 1 Jan 2012 4 5
-7.74% Feb 2015 Sep 2015 8 Apr 2016 7 15
-7.73% Aug 2016 Nov 2016 4 Jul 2017 8 12
-7.35% Apr 2004 Apr 2004 1 Sep 2004 5 6
-7.32% May 2013 Jun 2013 2 Feb 2014 8 10
-6.80% Jun 2002 Oct 2002 5 May 2003 7 12
-6.45% Feb 1994 Nov 1994 10 May 1995 6 16
-5.23% Feb 2018 Dec 2018 11 Jan 2019 1 12
-4.70% May 2012 May 2012 1 Aug 2012 3 4
-4.55% Jun 2007 Jul 2007 2 Sep 2007 2 4
-4.37% Feb 2001 Mar 2001 2 Jun 2001 3 5
-4.12% Sep 2014 Sep 2014 1 Jan 2015 4 5
-3.91% Sep 2020 Oct 2020 2 Dec 2020 2 4
-3.86% May 2010 Jun 2010 2 Sep 2010 3 5

Rolling Returns ( more details)

Marc Faber Portfolio: annualized rolling and average returns

Swipe left to see all data
Rolling
Period
Return (*) Negative
Periods
Average (%) Best (%) Worst (%)
1 Year
8.16 42.34
Apr 2009 - Mar 2010
-27.56
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009
12.29%
2 Years
8.06 31.23
Mar 2009 - Feb 2011
-12.17
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009
3.47%
3 Years
7.98 23.08
Mar 2009 - Feb 2012
-3.16
Apr 2006 - Mar 2009
1.02%
5 Years
7.95 17.27
Nov 2002 - Oct 2007
2.82
Oct 1997 - Sep 2002
0.00%
7 Years
7.94 12.89
Nov 2000 - Oct 2007
3.58
Apr 2013 - Mar 2020
0.00%
10 Years
8.07 11.86
Oct 2002 - Sep 2012
4.81
Sep 2012 - Aug 2022
0.00%
15 Years
8.28 9.81
Nov 1992 - Oct 2007
5.98
Mar 1994 - Feb 2009
0.00%
20 Years
8.33 9.36
Nov 1990 - Oct 2010
6.91
Mar 1989 - Feb 2009
0.00%
(*) Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods

If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Marc Faber Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.

Seasonality

Marc Faber Portfolio: in which months is it better to invest?

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.

For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Win %
0.75
66%
0.20
54%
0.49
56%
1.27
81%
0.50
61%
0.22
58%
1.26
75%
0.09
67%
0.40
51%
-0.08
51%
0.74
63%
1.71
86%
Best
Year
6.1
2012
4.2
2014
4.6
1993
7.8
2009
5.9
2009
4.7
2016
5.8
2009
4.4
2009
5.3
2007
7.5
2011
6.8
2009
8.0
2008
Worst
Year
-6.1
2009
-6.6
2009
-8.3
2020
-7.3
2004
-4.7
2012
-4.5
2022
-4.4
2002
-7.1
1998
-8.0
2011
-17.5
2008
-3.3
2007
-2.2
2018
Statistics calculated for the period Mar 1987 - Aug 2022

Monthly/Yearly Returns

Marc Faber Portfolio monthly and yearly returns: how is the distribution of the returns recorded so far?

MONTHLY RETURNS HISTOGRAM
273 Positive Months (64%) - 153 Negative Months (36%)
Mar 1987 - Aug 2022
Swipe left to see all data
Yearly Return(%)
Monthly Return(%)
Year Total Infl.Adj Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2022
-13.72 -18.78 -4.1 -0.3 1.5 -4.5 -1.7 -4.5 3.3 -3.9
2021
+12.98 +5.55 -1.1 -0.5 1.5 4.2 2.4 -0.4 2.2 1.1 -3.7 3.7 -1.4 4.5
2020
+11.15 +9.66 1.5 -3.3 -8.3 7.0 2.4 2.2 5.5 1.2 -2.5 -1.5 3.5 3.8
2019
+20.49 +17.80 6.0 0.6 1.5 0.7 -0.8 4.2 0.4 3.0 0.1 1.7 -0.6 2.0
2018
-4.39 -6.18 0.9 -3.8 0.9 -0.2 0.8 -0.1 0.4 0.5 -0.9 -2.5 1.9 -2.2
2017
+11.79 +9.48 2.2 2.5 -0.3 1.1 0.6 0.2 1.8 1.4 -0.5 0.2 1.2 1.1
2016
+6.97 +4.80 -0.5 2.7 4.3 1.1 -1.2 4.7 2.7 -1.9 0.0 -2.9 -3.2 1.2
2015
-2.47 -3.18 4.1 -1.5 -0.3 -0.9 -0.1 -2.4 0.1 -2.6 -0.3 3.8 -2.0 -0.2
2014
+9.60 +8.78 1.1 4.2 -0.5 1.4 0.7 2.3 -1.3 1.8 -4.1 2.5 1.0 0.4
2013
-1.18 -2.64 1.6 -0.8 1.5 1.0 -3.6 -3.9 3.1 -1.7 1.6 2.5 -2.0 -0.2
2012
+11.20 +9.30 6.1 0.1 1.2 0.6 -4.7 3.3 1.2 1.8 1.4 -1.2 0.2 0.9
2011
+4.97 +1.95 -0.4 3.5 0.0 5.0 -0.3 -1.9 2.4 0.5 -8.0 7.5 -0.8 -1.8
2010
+19.36 +17.60 -2.6 2.8 3.9 3.6 -2.7 -1.2 3.3 0.5 4.6 3.2 -0.5 3.3
2009
+22.95 +19.69 -6.1 -6.6 2.5 7.8 5.9 -2.2 5.8 4.4 4.7 -0.9 6.8 0.1
2008
-16.28 -16.36 1.1 0.4 -0.3 1.7 0.4 -3.6 -0.2 -2.1 -1.5 -17.5 -1.9 8.0
2007
+8.25 +4.00 3.2 -0.1 -0.3 1.6 0.0 -2.9 -1.7 2.3 5.3 3.7 -3.3 0.4
2006
+20.89 +17.89 5.7 0.1 2.5 2.9 -2.2 -0.1 2.4 1.4 -0.2 3.1 4.1 -0.5
2005
+11.20 +7.53 -3.4 2.4 -1.7 1.5 0.8 2.7 2.3 -0.3 2.7 -1.8 3.5 2.3
2004
+13.91 +10.32 0.7 1.0 3.1 -7.3 2.2 1.5 -0.8 3.7 1.1 2.8 4.0 1.6
2003
+23.98 +21.70 0.1 -1.2 -0.5 3.5 5.1 0.1 1.9 2.4 2.5 1.8 2.3 3.9
2002
+4.97 +2.53 0.1 1.9 2.7 0.4 2.1 -1.3 -4.4 1.3 -1.8 -0.7 2.4 2.3
2001
+1.95 +0.39 0.6 -2.2 -2.2 2.8 1.0 1.3 -0.9 0.9 -1.1 -1.2 2.1 1.0
2000
+4.65 +1.22 -1.9 0.9 1.2 0.3 -0.6 3.4 1.0 0.1 -0.5 -2.4 -0.2 3.4
1999
+7.25 +4.45 -0.1 -1.2 0.7 4.7 -2.1 0.3 -1.6 -0.3 2.8 0.9 0.2 2.9
1998
+2.17 +0.55 1.4 0.8 2.1 0.3 -2.1 0.6 -2.2 -7.1 4.7 1.7 2.2 0.2
1997
+5.23 +3.47 -0.8 1.2 -1.6 -0.2 3.0 2.0 2.2 -2.5 4.6 -3.4 0.1 0.8
1996
+12.19 +8.58 2.5 -0.4 -0.1 0.2 0.7 0.3 -0.8 1.4 1.5 1.4 2.6 2.2
1995
+13.03 +10.23 -1.2 1.2 2.0 0.9 2.3 1.0 1.0 0.1 1.5 -0.9 1.9 2.5
1994
-3.18 -5.70 1.5 -1.2 -2.8 -0.4 0.9 -0.8 0.9 1.6 -1.3 -1.1 -2.2 2.0
1993
+19.45 +16.26 2.6 2.2 4.6 0.8 1.6 1.6 2.7 0.3 -0.1 1.5 -2.7 3.2
1992
+3.34 +0.43 0.6 -0.9 -2.2 0.2 2.9 -0.8 3.2 -1.0 1.3 -1.3 0.7 0.8
1991
+19.75 +16.19 2.7 2.9 1.9 1.4 1.8 -1.9 1.6 0.3 2.0 1.0 -0.9 5.7
1990
-4.94 -10.41 -1.9 -0.9 -2.8 -1.3 2.8 0.2 2.2 -4.1 -2.3 -0.6 2.8 1.0
1989
+13.95 +8.88 1.4 -0.6 -0.2 2.1 0.6 1.4 3.5 0.1 1.4 -0.5 2.9 1.1
1988
+7.03 +2.50 2.5 1.0 1.2 0.0 -0.5 1.7 0.1 -1.7 0.1 2.0 0.1 0.4
1987
- - 1.2 1.7 -0.6 1.1 2.0 0.0 -0.9 -7.6 1.1 1.7

Portofolio Returns, up to December 2007, are simulated. They have been calculated using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.

In particular, it has been used:

  • VNQ - Vanguard Real Estate: simulated historical serie, up to December 2004
  • VV - Vanguard Large-Cap: simulated historical serie, up to December 2004
  • VEA - Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
  • EEM - iShares MSCI Emerging Markets: simulated historical serie, up to December 2003
  • BND - Vanguard Total Bond Market: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
  • GLD - SPDR Gold Trust: simulated historical serie, up to December 2004

Portfolio efficiency

Is the Marc Faber Portfolio actually efficient, compared to other Lazy Portfolios?

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Sep 2022 return refers to period 01-23 September 2022.
Last update: Sep 23 2022.
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