The Lazy Team High Yield Bonds Income Portfolio: Rolling Returns

Simulation Settings
Period: January 1985 - June 2025 (~41 years)
Initial Amount: 1$
Rebalancing: at every Jan 1st
Currency: USD
Inflation: US
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When holding the The Lazy Team High Yield Bonds Income Portfolio, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~41 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 65 months (from May 2017 to September 2022).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 66 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?

The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).

Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.

THE LAZY TEAM HIGH YIELD BONDS INCOME PORTFOLIO
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Time Period: 1 July 1995 - 30 June 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1985 - 30 June 2025 (~41 years)
30 Years
(1995/07 - 2025/06)
All Data
(1985/01 - 2025/06)

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As of Jun 30, 2025, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 3.71%.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

THE LAZY TEAM HIGH YIELD BONDS INCOME PORTFOLIO
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 July 1995 - 30 June 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1985 - 30 June 2025 (~41 years)
30 Years
(1995/07 - 2025/06)
All Data
(1985/01 - 2025/06)
US Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

THE LAZY TEAM HIGH YIELD BONDS INCOME PORTFOLIO
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 January 1985 - 30 June 2025 (~41 years)
Over Time
Histogram
US Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-23.97%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2008
+7.93% +41.19%
Dec 2008 - Nov 2009
14.53%
69 out of 475
-26.75%
Oct 2021 - Sep 2022
+5.23% +40.84%
Nov 2008 - Oct 2009
24.84%
118 out of 475
-10.66%
Dec 2006 - Nov 2008
+7.29% +27.64%
Nov 2008 - Oct 2010
7.34%
34 out of 463
-14.26%
Jan 2021 - Dec 2022
+4.45% +27.04%
Nov 2008 - Oct 2010
12.74%
59 out of 463
-4.61%
Oct 2019 - Sep 2022
+7.49% +20.32%
Nov 2008 - Oct 2011
7.54%
34 out of 451
-9.14%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2023
+4.78% +18.57%
Nov 2008 - Oct 2011
12.42%
56 out of 451
-2.26%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2008
+7.54% +18.32%
Nov 2008 - Oct 2012
4.10%
18 out of 439
-6.49%
Nov 2019 - Oct 2023
+5.03% +16.41%
Nov 2008 - Oct 2012
12.76%
56 out of 439
-0.82%
Oct 2017 - Sep 2022
+8.02% +14.75%
Feb 1991 - Jan 1996
0.47%
2 out of 427
-4.41%
Oct 2017 - Sep 2022
+5.42% +12.89%
Nov 2008 - Oct 2013
10.30%
44 out of 427
+0.16%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2023
+8.15% +14.64%
Dec 1990 - Nov 1996
0.00%
0 out of 415
-3.46%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2023
+5.25% +11.72%
Nov 2008 - Oct 2014
9.40%
39 out of 415
+1.13%
Nov 2016 - Oct 2023
+8.12% +14.83%
Oct 1990 - Sep 1997
0.00%
0 out of 403
-2.29%
Nov 2016 - Oct 2023
+5.55% +11.66%
Oct 1990 - Sep 1997
9.43%
38 out of 403
+1.28%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2022
+8.10% +13.34%
May 1990 - Apr 1998
0.00%
0 out of 391
-1.55%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2022
+5.34% +10.13%
May 1990 - Apr 1998
8.18%
32 out of 391
+1.60%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2023
+8.01% +12.14%
Nov 1990 - Oct 1999
0.00%
0 out of 379
-1.28%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2023
+5.35% +9.30%
Nov 1990 - Oct 1999
5.28%
20 out of 379
+1.84%
Oct 2012 - Sep 2022
+8.03% +11.95%
Oct 1987 - Sep 1997
0.00%
0 out of 367
-0.68%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2022
+5.52% +8.82%
Oct 1990 - Sep 2000
4.36%
16 out of 367
+2.07%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2023
+8.18% +11.53%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2001
0.00%
0 out of 355
-0.53%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2023
+5.65% +8.67%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2001
1.13%
4 out of 355
+2.90%
Nov 2011 - Oct 2023
+8.21% +11.76%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1997
0.00%
0 out of 343
+0.27%
May 2013 - Apr 2025
+5.65% +8.45%
Jul 1991 - Jun 2003
0.00%
0 out of 343
+3.21%
Nov 2010 - Oct 2023
+7.92% +11.86%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1998
0.00%
0 out of 331
+0.55%
Nov 2010 - Oct 2023
+5.43% +8.87%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2003
0.00%
0 out of 331
+4.04%
Jun 2011 - May 2025
+7.99% +11.59%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2004
0.00%
0 out of 319
+1.42%
May 2011 - Apr 2025
+5.52% +8.78%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2004
0.00%
0 out of 319
+3.95%
Oct 2007 - Sep 2022
+7.96% +11.23%
Oct 1990 - Sep 2005
0.00%
0 out of 307
+1.54%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2022
+5.47% +8.26%
Oct 1990 - Sep 2005
0.00%
0 out of 307
+3.98%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2023
+7.75% +10.94%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2006
0.00%
0 out of 295
+1.50%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2023
+5.35% +8.10%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2006
0.00%
0 out of 295
+4.09%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023
+7.87% +10.63%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2007
0.00%
0 out of 283
+1.54%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023
+5.42% +7.74%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2007
0.00%
0 out of 283
+4.31%
Nov 2005 - Oct 2023
+8.25% +10.62%
May 1985 - Apr 2003
0.00%
0 out of 271
+1.79%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2022
+5.60% +7.36%
May 1985 - Apr 2003
0.00%
0 out of 271
+4.34%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2023
+8.21% +10.73%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2004
0.00%
0 out of 259
+1.75%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2023
+5.68% +7.51%
Apr 1985 - Mar 2004
0.00%
0 out of 259
+4.66%
Nov 2003 - Oct 2023
+8.09% +10.67%
Jan 1985 - Dec 2004
0.00%
0 out of 247
+2.03%
Nov 2003 - Oct 2023
+5.55% +7.44%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2010
0.00%
0 out of 247
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