Data Source: from January 1978 to September 2021
Last Update: 30 September 2021
The Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio is exposed for 25% on the Stock Market and for 25% on Commodities.
It's a Medium Risk portfolio and it can be replicated with 4 ETFs.
In the last 10 years, the portfolio obtained a 5.73% compound annual return, with a 6.07% standard deviation.
In the last 25 years, a 6.93% compound annual return, with a 6.42% standard deviation.
In 2020, the portfolio granted a 0.94% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.
Asset Allocation and ETFs
The Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio has the following asset allocation:
The Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio can be replicated with the following ETFs:
| Weight | Ticker | ETF Name | Investment Themes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25.00 % | VTI | Vanguard Total Stock Market | Equity, U.S., Large Cap | |
| 25.00 % | TLT | iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond | Bond, U.S., Long-Term | |
| 25.00 % | BIL | SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill | Bond, U.S., Ultra Short-Term | |
| 25.00 % | GLD | SPDR Gold Trust | Commodity, Gold |
Portfolio and ETF Returns
The Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.
| 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y(*) | 5Y(*) | 10Y(*) | 20Y(*) | 25Y(*) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio | -2.73 | -0.13 | +4.54 | +2.74 | +10.08 | +6.72 | +5.73 | +7.36 | +6.93 |
| Components | |||||||||
|
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market |
-4.46 | -0.03 | +8.10 | +32.16 | +16.05 | +16.88 | +16.60 | +10.07 | +9.79 |
|
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond |
-2.91 | +0.36 | +7.41 | -10.30 | +9.25 | +3.19 | +4.33 | +6.48 | +7.06 |
|
BIL SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill |
+0.01 | -0.01 | -0.04 | -0.06 | +0.96 | +0.96 | +0.45 | +1.15 | +1.92 |
|
GLD SPDR Gold Trust |
-3.22 | -0.85 | +2.66 | -7.28 | +13.35 | +5.50 | +0.38 | +8.97 | +6.02 |
- a rebalancing of the components at the beginning of each year (i.e. at every January 1st)
- the reinvestment of dividends
If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.
Historical Returns
Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio - Historical returns and stats.
| Period | Returns Sep 2021 |
Standard Deviation * |
Max Drawdown |
Months Pos - Neg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1M
|
-2.73%
|
-2.73%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
|
0 - 1 | |
|
3M
|
-0.13%
|
-2.73%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
|
2 - 1 | |
|
6M
|
+4.54%
|
-2.73%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
|
4 - 2 | |
|
YTD
|
-0.09%
|
-4.43%
Jan 2021 - Mar 2021
|
4 - 5 | |
|
1Y
|
+2.74%
|
6.56%
|
-4.43%
Jan 2021 - Mar 2021
|
6 - 6 |
|
3Y
|
+10.08%
annualized
|
6.94%
|
-4.43%
Jan 2021 - Mar 2021
|
25 - 11 |
|
5Y
|
+6.72%
annualized
|
6.26%
|
-5.77%
Oct 2016 - Dec 2016
|
39 - 21 |
|
10Y
|
+5.73%
annualized
|
6.07%
|
-6.98%
Aug 2016 - Dec 2016
|
70 - 50 |
|
20Y
|
+7.36%
annualized
|
6.51%
|
-12.62%
Mar 2008 - Oct 2008
|
151 - 89 |
|
25Y
|
+6.93%
annualized
|
6.42%
|
-12.62%
Mar 2008 - Oct 2008
|
189 - 111 |
|
MAX
01 Jan 1978
|
+8.33%
annualized
|
7.18%
|
-12.62%
Mar 2008 - Oct 2008
|
337 - 188 |
Similar portfolios, ordered by 5 Years annualized return.
These portfolios share asset allocation strategy and/or similar asset weights. Comparing their returns and drawdowns, you can get an idea of the risk you are facing implementing one of them.
5 Years Stats |
% Allocation |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | Return▾ | Drawdown | Stocks | Bonds | Comm. | ||
| All Weather Portfolio with Bitcoin Ray Dalio |
+14.24% | -5.32% | 30 | 55 | 15 | Compare | |
| Permanent Portfolio with Bitcoin Harry Browne |
+13.42% | -5.19% | 25 | 50 | 25 | Compare | |
| All Weather Portfolio Ray Dalio |
+7.52% | -5.71% | 30 | 55 | 15 | Compare | |
| Permanent Portfolio Harry Browne |
+6.72% | -5.77% | 25 | 50 | 25 | ||
Best Classic Portfolios, with Medium Risk, ordered by 25 Years annualized return.
25 Years Stats |
% Allocation |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | Return▾ | Drawdown | Stocks | Bonds | Comm. | ||
| Couch Potato Scott Burns |
+8.32% | -27.03% | 50 | 50 | 0 | Compare | |
| All Weather Portfolio Ray Dalio |
+7.92% | -12.19% | 30 | 55 | 15 | Compare | |
| Robo Advisor 50 Betterment |
+7.70% | -30.72% | 49.9 | 50.1 | 0 | Compare | |
| Stocks/Bonds 40/60 |
+7.27% | -19.17% | 40 | 60 | 0 | Compare | |
| Dynamic 40/60 Income |
+7.22% | -29.85% | 40 | 60 | 0 | Compare | |
Capital Growth
Drawdowns
Rolling Returns ( more details)
Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio: annualized rolling and average returns
| Return (*) | Negative Periods |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rolling Period | Average | Best | Worst | |
| 1 Year |
+8.64% |
+45.29% Feb 1979 - Jan 1980 |
-9.87% Oct 1980 - Sep 1981 |
12.06% |
| 2 Years |
+8.35% |
+30.12% Jul 1978 - Jun 1980 |
-4.36% Jul 1980 - Jun 1982 |
1.00% |
| 3 Years |
+7.98% |
+21.45% Jan 1978 - Dec 1980 |
+0.68% Oct 2012 - Sep 2015 |
0.00% |
| 5 Years |
+7.86% |
+16.49% May 1978 - Apr 1983 |
+2.72% Feb 2012 - Jan 2017 |
0.00% |
| 7 Years |
+7.80% |
+14.07% Apr 1979 - Mar 1986 |
+3.19% Nov 2011 - Oct 2018 |
0.00% |
| 10 Years |
+7.74% |
+13.00% Feb 1978 - Jan 1988 |
+5.58% Mar 2008 - Feb 2018 |
0.00% |
| 15 Years |
+7.64% |
+11.02% Jul 1978 - Jun 1993 |
+5.69% Aug 1987 - Jul 2002 |
0.00% |
| 20 Years |
+7.51% |
+10.28% May 1978 - Apr 1998 |
+6.11% Jan 1999 - Dec 2018 |
0.00% |
* Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods
If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.
Seasonality and Yearly/Monthly Returns
Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Seasonality: in which months is it better to invest?
In the table below, the average monthly return is represented.
Below each return, it's also mentioned the probability of obtaining a positive monthly result (Win %).
Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.
| Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return (%) | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
| Average Win % |
0.94 73% |
0.17 57% |
0.14 57% |
0.91 75% |
0.76 70% |
0.59 57% |
0.71 59% |
1.05 66% |
0.63 59% |
0.13 58% |
1.14 70% |
1.12 70% |
| Best Year |
6.8 1980 |
4.0 1986 |
4.9 1986 |
5.9 1980 |
4.9 2003 |
7.7 1980 |
5.4 2020 |
9.6 1982 |
7.7 1979 |
6.7 1982 |
5.6 2008 |
9.3 1979 |
| Worst Year |
-4.6 1981 |
-2.7 1983 |
-9.3 1980 |
-4.2 2004 |
-2.4 2013 |
-3.5 2013 |
-2.3 2002 |
-4.2 1998 |
-2.7 2021 |
-8.5 2008 |
-5.3 1978 |
-2.6 2009 |
For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
Monthly Returns of Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio
| Months | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Return | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
| 2021 |
-0.09% | -1.8 | -2.2 | -0.5 | 2.8 | 1.9 | -0.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | -2.7 | |||
| 2020 |
+16.10% | 3.1 | -0.3 | -1.3 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 5.4 | 0.1 | -1.8 | -1.5 | 1.7 | 2.7 |
| 2019 |
+16.17% | 3.0 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 4.1 | 0.5 | 4.2 | -1.1 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.9 |
| 2018 |
-1.76% | 1.3 | -2.2 | 0.4 | -0.6 | 0.9 | -0.5 | 0.0 | 0.8 | -0.8 | -2.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 2017 |
+10.97% | 2.0 | 2.2 | -0.3 | 1.1 | 0.7 | -0.1 | 0.9 | 2.0 | -0.8 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| 2016 |
+5.54% | 1.3 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 1.4 | -1.1 | 4.2 | 2.0 | -1.1 | -0.2 | -2.5 | -3.3 | -0.1 |
| 2015 |
-3.06% | 3.9 | -1.8 | -0.6 | -0.8 | -0.1 | -1.8 | -0.1 | -0.9 | -0.7 | 2.4 | -1.7 | -0.7 |
| 2014 |
+9.40% | 1.6 | 2.9 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 2.1 | -1.3 | 2.4 | -2.6 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| 2013 |
-2.08% | 0.4 | -0.6 | 1.2 | -0.2 | -2.4 | -3.5 | 2.6 | -0.2 | 0.3 | 1.6 | -0.9 | -0.2 |
| 2012 |
+6.41% | 4.0 | -0.3 | -0.5 | 0.9 | -1.2 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | -1.4 | 0.4 | -0.9 |
| 2011 |
+11.11% | -1.9 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 3.6 | 0.1 | -1.7 | 2.7 | 4.2 | -1.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | -1.7 |
| 2010 |
+13.92% | -0.5 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 2.8 | 0.0 | 0.7 | -0.1 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 1.5 |
| 2009 |
+7.85% | -3.9 | -2.5 | 2.0 | 0.1 | 3.3 | -1.2 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 3.2 | -0.3 | 5.5 | -2.6 |
| 2008 |
+0.87% | 1.8 | 0.8 | -1.3 | -0.7 | 0.1 | -0.1 | -0.6 | -1.5 | -0.6 | -8.5 | 5.6 | 6.5 |
| 2007 |
+12.69% | 1.0 | 1.2 | -0.3 | 1.9 | -0.1 | -1.1 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 3.8 | 2.8 | -0.3 | 1.6 |
| 2006 |
+10.94% | 3.0 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 3.0 | -1.1 | -1.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.2 | 1.5 | 3.1 | -0.7 |
| 2005 |
+8.91% | -0.6 | 0.9 | -0.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.8 | -0.1 | 1.0 | 1.1 | -1.3 | 2.9 | 2.2 |
| 2004 |
+6.83% | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.8 | -4.2 | 0.6 | 1.0 | -0.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 |
| 2003 |
+13.32% | 0.7 | -1.0 | -1.1 | 2.5 | 4.9 | -1.1 | -1.3 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 2.6 |
| 2002 |
+5.85% | 0.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 1.4 | -1.8 | -2.3 | 2.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 2.6 |
| 2001 |
-0.52% | 0.3 | -1.7 | -2.5 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.6 | -0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2000 |
+2.40% | -1.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | -1.5 | -1.1 | 3.2 | -0.9 | 2.5 | -1.6 | -0.7 | -1.0 | 1.7 |
| 1999 |
+5.17% | 1.0 | -1.9 | 0.4 | 2.0 | -2.4 | 0.6 | -1.4 | -0.3 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 1.8 |
| 1998 |
+10.09% | 2.0 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.3 | -1.6 | 1.9 | -1.3 | -4.2 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| 1997 |
+7.19% | -0.3 | 0.9 | -2.3 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 3.1 | -1.7 | 2.9 | -1.5 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| 1996 |
+5.08% | 2.0 | -1.0 | -0.4 | 0.0 | 0.7 | -0.2 | -1.2 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 2.2 | -1.0 |
| 1995 |
+18.11% | 0.8 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| 1994 |
-1.37% | 0.5 | -1.3 | -1.5 | -0.9 | 1.0 | -0.8 | 1.3 | 1.2 | -0.5 | -0.3 | -0.8 | 0.8 |
| 1993 |
+12.00% | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 0.0 | -1.0 | 1.6 | -0.9 | 2.1 |
| 1992 |
+3.57% | -0.7 | 0.5 | -1.6 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 3.1 | -1.5 | 1.3 | -0.8 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| 1991 |
+11.72% | 0.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 1.4 | -0.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | -0.5 | 3.9 |
| 1990 |
+1.11% | -1.5 | 0.0 | -1.8 | -1.3 | 3.1 | -0.1 | 1.4 | -2.2 | 0.6 | -1.4 | 3.1 | 1.5 |
| 1989 |
+12.90% | 1.3 | -1.2 | 0.7 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 2.5 | -0.4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 2.7 | 0.1 |
| 1988 |
+4.39% | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.7 | -0.3 | 0.0 | 1.5 | -0.5 | -1.0 | 0.6 | 2.1 | -0.3 | 0.4 |
| 1987 |
+7.42% | 4.4 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | -0.3 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 0.4 | -1.0 | -4.8 | -0.1 | 1.6 |
| 1986 |
+17.64% | 2.2 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 2.5 | -1.3 | 4.6 | -0.5 | -0.1 | 0.5 | -0.8 |
| 1985 |
+20.47% | 3.3 | -2.1 | 4.2 | 0.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 1.1 | -1.5 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 3.3 |
| 1984 |
+2.22% | -0.3 | 0.1 | -0.4 | -0.9 | -2.0 | 0.6 | -0.7 | 4.3 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 0.0 | -0.2 |
| 1983 |
+3.46% | 2.5 | -2.7 | 1.3 | 3.9 | -0.1 | 0.3 | -1.8 | -0.2 | 1.4 | -2.3 | 2.8 | -1.5 |
| 1982 |
+23.27% | -1.3 | -2.1 | -2.2 | 5.0 | -2.4 | -1.5 | 2.8 | 9.6 | 1.6 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 2.6 |
| 1981 |
-5.34% | -4.6 | -1.2 | 3.5 | -2.9 | 1.9 | -2.4 | -1.5 | -1.4 | -1.5 | 3.5 | 4.0 | -2.4 |
| 1980 |
+13.65% | 6.8 | -2.3 | -9.3 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 7.7 | -1.4 | 0.8 | 2.0 | -1.5 | 2.8 | -1.3 |
| 1979 |
+39.77% | 2.7 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 3.6 | 7.7 | -4.5 | 5.1 | 9.3 |
| 1978 |
+12.78% | 0.1 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 2.6 | -0.4 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | -5.3 | 5.0 |
* Note: Portofolio Returns, up to December 2007, are simulated. They have been calculated using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.
In particular, it has been used:
- VTI - Vanguard Total Stock Market: simulated historical serie, up to December 2001
- TLT - iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond: simulated historical serie, up to December 2002
- BIL - SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
- GLD - SPDR Gold Trust: simulated historical serie, up to December 2004