Data Source: from January 1978 to December 2021
Last Update: 31 December 2021
The Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio is exposed for 25% on the Stock Market and for 25% on Commodities.
It's a Medium Risk portfolio and it can be replicated with 4 ETFs.
In the last 10 years, the portfolio obtained a 5.98% compound annual return, with a 6.04% standard deviation.
In the last 25 years, a 7.00% compound annual return, with a 6.42% standard deviation.
Asset Allocation and ETFs
The Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio has the following asset allocation:
The Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio can be replicated with the following ETFs:
| Weight | Ticker | ETF Name | Investment Themes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25.00 % | VTI | Vanguard Total Stock Market | Equity, U.S., Large Cap | |
| 25.00 % | BIL | SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill | Bond, U.S., Ultra Short-Term | |
| 25.00 % | TLT | iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond | Bond, U.S., Long-Term | |
| 25.00 % | GLD | SPDR Gold Trust | Commodity, Gold |
Portfolio and ETF Returns
The Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.
| 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y(*) | 5Y(*) | 10Y(*) | 20Y(*) | 25Y(*) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio | +1.38 | +4.30 | +4.17 | +4.21 | +12.01 | +8.91 | +5.98 | +7.56 | +7.00 |
| --- Inflation Adjusted return | +0.91 | +2.05 | +0.74 | -2.72 | +8.19 | +5.82 | +3.78 | +5.13 | +4.61 |
| Components | |||||||||
|
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market |
+3.79 | +9.11 | +9.08 | +25.67 | +25.73 | +17.96 | +16.29 | +9.91 | +9.88 |
|
BIL SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill |
0.00 | -0.03 | -0.04 | -0.10 | +0.77 | +0.95 | +0.45 | +1.12 | +1.86 |
|
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond |
-2.01 | +3.18 | +3.55 | -4.60 | +8.75 | +6.68 | +4.51 | +6.76 | +7.00 |
|
GLD SPDR Gold Trust |
+3.30 | +4.10 | +3.22 | -4.15 | +12.13 | +9.30 | +1.18 | +9.51 | +6.30 |
- a rebalancing of the components at the beginning of each year (i.e. at every January 1st)
- the reinvestment of dividends
Inflation is updated to Dec 2021. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 7.12% , 3Y: 3.53% , 5Y: 2.92% , 10Y: 2.12% , 20Y: 2.31% , 25Y: 2.29%
In 2021, the portfolio granted a 0.73% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.
Historical Returns
Historical returns and stats of Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio. Total Returns and Inflation Adjusted Returns are both mentioned.
| Period | Return Dec 2021 update |
Return Inflation Adjusted |
Standard Deviation(*) |
Max Drawdown |
Months Pos - Neg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1M
Dec 2021
|
+1.38%
|
+0.91%
|
0.00%
|
1 - 0
|
|
|
3M
|
+4.30%
|
+2.05%
|
0.00%
|
3 - 0
|
|
|
6M
|
+4.17%
|
+0.74%
|
-2.73%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
|
5 - 1
|
|
|
YTD
|
+4.21%
|
-2.72%
|
6.32%
|
-4.43%
Jan 2021 - Mar 2021
|
7 - 5
58% pos
|
|
1Y
|
+4.21%
|
-2.72%
|
6.32%
|
-4.43%
Jan 2021 - Mar 2021
|
7 - 5
58% pos
|
|
3Y
|
+12.01%
annualized
|
+8.19%
annualized
|
6.80%
|
-4.43%
Jan 2021 - Mar 2021
|
26 - 10
72% pos
|
|
5Y
|
+8.91%
annualized
|
+5.82%
annualized
|
5.93%
|
-4.43%
Jan 2021 - Mar 2021
|
42 - 18
70% pos
|
|
10Y
|
+5.98%
annualized
|
+3.78%
annualized
|
6.04%
|
-6.98%
Aug 2016 - Dec 2016
|
71 - 49
59% pos
|
|
20Y
|
+7.56%
annualized
|
+5.13%
annualized
|
6.53%
|
-12.63%
Mar 2008 - Oct 2008
|
152 - 88
63% pos
|
|
25Y
|
+7.00%
annualized
|
+4.61%
annualized
|
6.42%
|
-12.63%
Mar 2008 - Oct 2008
|
190 - 110
63% pos
|
|
MAX
01 Jan 1978
|
+8.38%
annualized
|
+4.74%
annualized
|
7.17%
|
-12.63%
Mar 2008 - Oct 2008
|
340 - 188
64% pos
|
Portfolio efficiency
Is the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio actually efficient, compared to other Lazy Portfolios?
Similar portfolios, ordered by 5 Years annualized return.
These portfolios share asset allocation strategy and/or similar asset weights. Comparing their returns and drawdowns, you can get an idea of the risk you are facing implementing one of them.
5 Years Stats |
% Allocation |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | Return▾ | Drawdown | Stocks | Bonds | Comm. | ||
| All Weather Portfolio 2x Leveraged Ray Dalio |
+15.78% | -11.90% | 37.5 | 55 | 7.5 | Compare | |
| All Weather Portfolio with Bitcoin Ray Dalio |
+15.53% | -5.17% | 30 | 55 | 15 | Compare | |
| Permanent Portfolio with Bitcoin Harry Browne |
+14.78% | -4.61% | 25 | 50 | 25 | Compare | |
| Simplified Permanent Portfolio 2x Leveraged |
+14.26% | -9.99% | 25 | 50 | 25 | Compare | |
| All Weather Portfolio Ray Dalio |
+9.60% | -4.76% | 30 | 55 | 15 | Compare | |
| Permanent Portfolio Harry Browne |
+8.91% | -4.43% | 25 | 50 | 25 | ||
| Simplified Permanent Portfolio |
+8.74% | -3.82% | 25 | 50 | 25 | Compare | |
Best Classic Portfolios, with Medium Risk, ordered by 25 Years annualized return.
25 Years Stats |
% Allocation |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | Return▾ | Drawdown | Stocks | Bonds | Comm. | ||
| Couch Potato Scott Burns |
+8.33% | -27.03% | 50 | 50 | 0 | Compare | |
| All Weather Portfolio Ray Dalio |
+7.89% | -12.19% | 30 | 55 | 15 | Compare | |
| Robo Advisor 50 Betterment |
+7.63% | -30.72% | 49.9 | 50.1 | 0 | Compare | |
| Simplified Permanent Portfolio |
+7.48% | -13.28% | 25 | 50 | 25 | Compare | |
| Stocks/Bonds 40/60 |
+7.24% | -19.17% | 40 | 60 | 0 | Compare | |
Our overall ratings, assigned to the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio. The portfolio is classified as Medium Risk.
Less than 25%
25% - 49.99%
50% - 74.99%
At least 75%
| Medium Risk Portfolios |
All Portfolios |
||
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Years Ann. Return (Inflation Adjusted) |
+7.00%
(+4.61%) |
Average : 2.8 / 5
|
Average : 2.9 / 5
|
| Standard Deviation over 25 Years |
6.42% |
Excellent : 4.2 / 5
|
Excellent : 4.2 / 5
|
| Maximum Drawdown over 25 Years |
-12.63% |
Excellent : 5 / 5
|
Excellent : 4.4 / 5
|
| Easy to manage | 4 ETFs |
Good : 3.5 / 5
|
Good : 3.5 / 5
|
| Rating assigned considering all the Medium Risk Portfolios | Rating assigned considering all the Portfolios in the database |
Capital Growth
An investment of 1000$, since January 1997, now would be worth 5427.64$, with a total return of 442.76% (7.00% annualized).
The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 3081.95$, with a net total return of 208.19% (4.61% annualized).
Drawdowns
Worst drawdowns since January 1997 - Chart and Data
Drawdown period |
Recovery period |
Total |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drawdown | Start | Bottom | #Months | End | #Months | #Months |
| -12.63% | Mar 2008 | Oct 2008 | 8 | Aug 2009 | 10 | 18 |
| -6.98% | Aug 2016 | Dec 2016 | 5 | Aug 2017 | 8 | 13 |
| -6.86% | Oct 2012 | Jun 2013 | 9 | Feb 2014 | 8 | 17 |
| -6.73% | Feb 2015 | Dec 2015 | 11 | Apr 2016 | 4 | 15 |
| -5.43% | Sep 2000 | Mar 2001 | 7 | Mar 2002 | 12 | 19 |
| -5.34% | Jul 1998 | Aug 1998 | 2 | Oct 1998 | 2 | 4 |
| -4.43% | Jan 2021 | Mar 2021 | 3 | May 2021 | 2 | 5 |
| -4.25% | Feb 2018 | Oct 2018 | 9 | Feb 2019 | 4 | 13 |
| -4.20% | Apr 2004 | Apr 2004 | 1 | Oct 2004 | 6 | 7 |
| -4.02% | Jun 2002 | Jul 2002 | 2 | Dec 2002 | 5 | 7 |
| -3.54% | May 1999 | Aug 1999 | 4 | Oct 1999 | 2 | 6 |
| -3.30% | Sep 2020 | Oct 2020 | 2 | Dec 2020 | 2 | 4 |
| -3.07% | Dec 2009 | Jan 2010 | 2 | Apr 2010 | 3 | 5 |
| -2.73% | Sep 2021 | Sep 2021 | 1 | Oct 2021 | 1 | 2 |
| -2.62% | Sep 2014 | Sep 2014 | 1 | Dec 2014 | 3 | 4 |
| -2.58% | Apr 2000 | May 2000 | 2 | Jun 2000 | 1 | 3 |
| -2.34% | Jun 2003 | Jul 2003 | 2 | Aug 2003 | 1 | 3 |
| -2.33% | Mar 1997 | Mar 1997 | 1 | May 1997 | 2 | 3 |
| -2.12% | May 2006 | Jun 2006 | 2 | Aug 2006 | 2 | 4 |
| -2.06% | Feb 2003 | Mar 2003 | 2 | Apr 2003 | 1 | 3 |
Rolling Returns ( more details)
Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio: annualized rolling and average returns
| Return (*) | Negative Periods |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rolling Period | Average | Best | Worst | |
| 1 Year |
+8.62% |
+45.29% Feb 1979 - Jan 1980 |
-9.87% Oct 1980 - Sep 1981 |
11.99% |
| 2 Years |
+8.35% |
+30.12% Jul 1978 - Jun 1980 |
-4.36% Jul 1980 - Jun 1982 |
0.99% |
| 3 Years |
+8.01% |
+21.45% Jan 1978 - Dec 1980 |
+0.68% Oct 2012 - Sep 2015 |
0.00% |
| 5 Years |
+7.87% |
+16.49% May 1978 - Apr 1983 |
+2.72% Feb 2012 - Jan 2017 |
0.00% |
| 7 Years |
+7.79% |
+14.07% Apr 1979 - Mar 1986 |
+3.19% Nov 2011 - Oct 2018 |
0.00% |
| 10 Years |
+7.73% |
+13.00% Feb 1978 - Jan 1988 |
+5.58% Mar 2008 - Feb 2018 |
0.00% |
| 15 Years |
+7.63% |
+11.02% Jul 1978 - Jun 1993 |
+5.69% Aug 1987 - Jul 2002 |
0.00% |
| 20 Years |
+7.51% |
+10.28% May 1978 - Apr 1998 |
+6.11% Jan 1999 - Dec 2018 |
0.00% |
* Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods
If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.
Seasonality
Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Seasonality: in which months is it better to invest?
In the table below, the average monthly return is represented.
Below each return, it's also mentioned the probability of obtaining a positive monthly result (Win %).
Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.
| Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return (%) | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
| Average Win % |
0.94 73% |
0.17 57% |
0.14 57% |
0.91 75% |
0.76 70% |
0.59 57% |
0.71 59% |
1.05 66% |
0.63 59% |
0.19 59% |
1.11 70% |
1.12 70% |
| Best Year |
6.8 1980 |
4.0 1986 |
4.8 1986 |
5.9 1980 |
4.9 2003 |
7.7 1980 |
5.4 2020 |
9.6 1982 |
7.7 1979 |
6.7 1982 |
5.6 2008 |
9.3 1979 |
| Worst Year |
-4.6 1981 |
-2.7 1983 |
-9.3 1980 |
-4.2 2004 |
-2.4 1982 |
-3.5 2013 |
-2.2 2002 |
-4.1 1998 |
-2.7 2021 |
-8.5 2008 |
-5.3 1978 |
-2.6 2009 |
For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
Monthly/Yearly Returns
Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio monthly and yearly returns: how is the distribution of the returns recorded so far?
Yearly Return(%) |
Monthly Return(%) |
|||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Total | Infl.Adj | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
| 2021 |
+4.21 | -2.72 | -1.8 | -2.2 | -0.5 | 2.8 | 1.9 | -0.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | -2.7 | 2.8 | 0.0 | 1.4 |
| 2020 |
+16.10 | +14.61 | 3.1 | -0.3 | -1.3 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 5.4 | 0.1 | -1.8 | -1.5 | 1.7 | 2.7 |
| 2019 |
+16.17 | +13.60 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 4.1 | 0.5 | 4.2 | -1.1 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.9 |
| 2018 |
-1.76 | -3.61 | 1.3 | -2.2 | 0.4 | -0.6 | 0.9 | -0.5 | 0.0 | 0.8 | -0.8 | -2.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 2017 |
+10.97 | +8.69 | 2.0 | 2.1 | -0.3 | 1.1 | 0.7 | -0.1 | 0.9 | 2.0 | -0.8 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| 2016 |
+5.54 | +3.42 | 1.3 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 1.4 | -1.1 | 4.2 | 2.0 | -1.1 | -0.2 | -2.5 | -3.3 | -0.1 |
| 2015 |
-3.06 | -3.67 | 3.9 | -1.8 | -0.6 | -0.8 | -0.1 | -1.8 | -0.1 | -0.9 | -0.7 | 2.4 | -1.7 | -0.7 |
| 2014 |
+9.40 | +8.69 | 1.6 | 2.9 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 2.1 | -1.3 | 2.4 | -2.6 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| 2013 |
-2.08 | -3.54 | 0.4 | -0.6 | 1.2 | -0.2 | -2.4 | -3.5 | 2.6 | -0.2 | 0.3 | 1.6 | -0.9 | -0.2 |
| 2012 |
+6.41 | +4.57 | 4.0 | -0.3 | -0.5 | 0.9 | -1.2 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | -1.4 | 0.4 | -0.9 |
| 2011 |
+11.11 | +7.81 | -1.9 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 3.5 | 0.1 | -1.7 | 2.6 | 4.2 | -1.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | -1.7 |
| 2010 |
+13.92 | +12.31 | -0.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 2.8 | 0.0 | 0.7 | -0.1 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 1.5 |
| 2009 |
+7.85 | +4.90 | -3.8 | -2.5 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 3.3 | -1.2 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 3.2 | -0.3 | 5.4 | -2.6 |
| 2008 |
+0.87 | +0.89 | 1.8 | 0.8 | -1.3 | -0.7 | 0.1 | -0.1 | -0.6 | -1.5 | -0.6 | -8.5 | 5.6 | 6.5 |
| 2007 |
+12.69 | +8.25 | 1.0 | 1.2 | -0.3 | 1.9 | -0.1 | -1.1 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 3.8 | 2.8 | -0.2 | 1.6 |
| 2006 |
+10.94 | +8.21 | 3.0 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 3.0 | -1.1 | -1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | -0.2 | 1.5 | 3.1 | -0.7 |
| 2005 |
+8.91 | +5.40 | -0.6 | 0.9 | -0.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.8 | -0.1 | 1.0 | 1.1 | -1.3 | 2.9 | 2.1 |
| 2004 |
+6.83 | +3.38 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.8 | -4.2 | 0.6 | 1.0 | -0.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 |
| 2003 |
+13.32 | +11.06 | 0.6 | -1.0 | -1.1 | 2.5 | 4.9 | -1.1 | -1.3 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 2.6 |
| 2002 |
+5.85 | +3.29 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 1.4 | -1.8 | -2.2 | 2.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 2.6 |
| 2001 |
-0.52 | -2.09 | 0.3 | -1.7 | -2.5 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.6 | -0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2000 |
+2.40 | -1.00 | -1.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | -1.5 | -1.1 | 3.2 | -0.9 | 2.5 | -1.6 | -0.7 | -1.0 | 1.7 |
| 1999 |
+5.17 | +2.43 | 1.0 | -1.9 | 0.3 | 2.0 | -2.4 | 0.6 | -1.4 | -0.3 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 1.8 |
| 1998 |
+10.09 | +8.35 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.3 | -1.6 | 1.8 | -1.3 | -4.1 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| 1997 |
+7.19 | +5.40 | -0.3 | 0.9 | -2.3 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 3.1 | -1.7 | 2.9 | -1.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| 1996 |
+5.08 | +1.65 | 2.0 | -1.0 | -0.3 | 0.0 | 0.7 | -0.2 | -1.1 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 2.2 | -0.9 |
| 1995 |
+18.11 | +15.20 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| 1994 |
-1.37 | -3.87 | 0.5 | -1.3 | -1.5 | -0.9 | 0.9 | -0.8 | 1.2 | 1.1 | -0.5 | -0.3 | -0.8 | 0.8 |
| 1993 |
+12.00 | +8.93 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 0.0 | -0.9 | 1.6 | -0.9 | 2.1 |
| 1992 |
+3.57 | +0.59 | -0.7 | 0.5 | -1.6 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 3.1 | -1.5 | 1.3 | -0.8 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| 1991 |
+11.72 | +8.48 | 0.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 1.4 | -0.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | -0.5 | 3.8 |
| 1990 |
+1.11 | -4.84 | -1.5 | 0.0 | -1.8 | -1.3 | 3.1 | -0.1 | 1.4 | -2.2 | 0.6 | -1.4 | 3.1 | 1.5 |
| 1989 |
+12.90 | +7.89 | 1.3 | -1.2 | 0.7 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 2.5 | -0.4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 2.7 | 0.1 |
| 1988 |
+4.39 | -0.02 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.7 | -0.3 | 0.0 | 1.5 | -0.5 | -1.0 | 0.6 | 2.1 | -0.3 | 0.4 |
| 1987 |
+7.42 | +2.96 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | -0.2 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 0.4 | -0.9 | -4.8 | -0.1 | 1.6 |
| 1986 |
+17.64 | +16.26 | 2.2 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 2.5 | -1.3 | 4.6 | -0.5 | -0.1 | 0.5 | -0.8 |
| 1985 |
+20.47 | +16.07 | 3.3 | -2.0 | 4.1 | 0.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 1.1 | -1.5 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 3.2 |
| 1984 |
+2.22 | -1.75 | -0.3 | 0.1 | -0.4 | -0.9 | -2.0 | 0.6 | -0.7 | 4.3 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 0.0 | -0.2 |
| 1983 |
+3.46 | -0.31 | 2.5 | -2.7 | 1.3 | 3.9 | -0.1 | 0.3 | -1.8 | -0.2 | 1.4 | -2.3 | 2.7 | -1.4 |
| 1982 |
+23.27 | +18.73 | -1.3 | -2.1 | -2.2 | 5.0 | -2.4 | -1.5 | 2.8 | 9.6 | 1.6 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 2.6 |
| 1981 |
-5.34 | -13.09 | -4.6 | -1.2 | 3.5 | -2.9 | 1.9 | -2.4 | -1.5 | -1.4 | -1.5 | 3.5 | 4.0 | -2.4 |
| 1980 |
+13.65 | +1.16 | 6.8 | -2.3 | -9.3 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 7.7 | -1.4 | 0.8 | 2.0 | -1.5 | 2.8 | -1.3 |
| 1979 |
+39.77 | +23.41 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 7.7 | -4.5 | 5.1 | 9.3 |
| 1978 |
+12.78 | +3.48 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 2.6 | -0.4 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | -5.3 | 5.0 |
* Note: Portofolio Returns, up to December 2007, are simulated. They have been calculated using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.
In particular, it has been used:
- VTI - Vanguard Total Stock Market: simulated historical serie, up to December 2001
- BIL - SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
- TLT - iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond: simulated historical serie, up to December 2002
- GLD - SPDR Gold Trust: simulated historical serie, up to December 2004