Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns

Simulation Settings

Period: January 1871 - June 2025 (~155 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 30 June 2025
Live Update available for July 2025

Initial Amount: 1$

Rebalancing: at every Jan 1^st

Currency: USD

Inflation: US

(Change Settings)

Results

30 Years
(1995/07 - 2025/06)

All Data
(1871/01 - 2025/06)

Live
(Jul 2025)

Inflation Adjusted:

Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio

1.00$
Invested Capital
July 1995
7.29$
Final Capital
June 2025
6.85%
Yearly Return
6.65%
Std Deviation
-15.92%
Max Drawdown
27months
Recovery Period

1.00$
Invested Capital
July 1995
3.46$
Final Capital
June 2025
4.23%
Yearly Return
6.65%
Std Deviation
-23.09%
Max Drawdown
59months
Recovery Period

1.00$
Invested Capital
January 1871
6.66 K$
Final Capital
June 2025
5.86%
Yearly Return
5.81%
Std Deviation
-30.61%
Max Drawdown
46months
Recovery Period

1.00$
Invested Capital
January 1871
259.30$
Final Capital
June 2025
3.66%
Yearly Return
5.81%
Std Deviation
-45.48%
Max Drawdown
182months
Recovery Period

---

1 Day: ---

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Month: ---

The Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio can be implemented with 4 ETFs. This portfolio has a medium risk, signifying moderate fluctuations in value. It is suitable for investors with a balanced approach to risk and return, seeking steady growth while tolerating some level of volatility.

The portfolio asset allocation is: 25% on the Stock Market, 50% on Fixed Income, 25% on Commodities. In general, bonds are useful for mitigating overall portfolio risk, especially if they are issued by national entities or highly reliable companies. This portfolio has a 50% allocation to bonds, leading to its classification as medium risk.

As of June 2025, in the previous 30 Years, the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio obtained a 6.85% compound annual return, with a 6.65% standard deviation. It suffered a maximum drawdown of -15.92% that required 27 months to be recovered.

Disclaimer: The simulations on this website are provided in good faith but should NOT be taken as investment advice. We are not liable for any errors or actions based on this information. The authors of the website are not affiliated with the portfolio creators, who are the sole owners of their intellectual property. The translation of asset allocations into ETFs is based on the interpretation of LazyPortfolioETF.com and may not exactly reflect the original intent of the portfolio creators. Content is for informational, educational, illustrative, and entertainment purposes only.

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Asset Allocation and ETFs

To effectively implement the asset allocation of the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio, investors can utilize the following selection of ETFs. These ETFs have been chosen specifically for their ability to represent each asset class within the portfolio and facilitate ease of management.

          25% Stocks
        
          50% Fixed Income
        
          25% Commodities

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Weight (%)	ETF Ticker	ETF Currency	ETF Name	Investment Themes (Orig.Currency)
25.00	VTI	USD	Vanguard Total Stock Market	Equity, U.S., Large Cap (USD)
25.00	BIL	USD	SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill	Bond, U.S., Ultra Short-Term (USD)
25.00	TLT	USD	iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond	Bond, U.S., Long-Term (USD)
25.00	GLD	USD	SPDR Gold Trust	Commodity, Gold (USD)

Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

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Portfolio and ETF Returns as of Jun 30, 2025

Returns are calculated in USD, assuming:

no fees or capital gain taxes.
rebalancing: at every January 1^st. How do returns change with different rebalancing strategies?
dividend reinvestment, when applicable.
the actual US Inflation rates.

HARRY BROWNE PERMANENT PORTFOLIO

Capital Growth

30 Years
(1995/07 - 2025/06)

All Data
(1871/01 - 2025/06)

Inflation Adjusted:

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		Initial Amount $	Final Amount $	Total Return (%)	Annualized (%)
	Permanent Portfolio Harry Browne	1 $	7.29 $	628.85%	6.85%
		Jul 1995	Jun 2025

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		Initial Amount $	Final Amount $	Total Return (%)	Annualized (%)
	Permanent Portfolio Harry Browne	1 $	3.46 $	246.40%	4.23%
		Jul 1995	Jun 2025

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		Initial Amount $	Final Amount $	Total Return (%)	Annualized (%)
	Permanent Portfolio Harry Browne	1 $	6 663.35 $	666 234.64%	5.86%
		Jan 1871	Jun 2025

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		Initial Amount $	Final Amount $	Total Return (%)	Annualized (%)
	Permanent Portfolio Harry Browne	1 $	259.30 $	25 830.24%	3.66%
		Jan 1871	Jun 2025

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Show Live Returns: July 2025			Chg (%)		Return (%)	Return (%) as of Jun 30, 2025
			1 Day	Time ET^(*)	---	YTD (6M)	1M	6M	1Y	5Y	10Y	30Y	MAX (~155Y)
Investment Return			---		---	9.09	2.03	9.09	15.44	5.74	6.58	6.85	5.86
US Inflation Adjusted Return						8.08	2.03	8.08	12.70	1.17	3.43	4.23	3.66
Show Components
VTI	USD	Vanguard Total Stock Market	---	---	---	5.56	5.16	5.56	15.08	15.87	12.90	10.36	9.21
BIL	USD	SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill	---	---	---	2.06	0.33	2.06	4.64	2.68	1.82	2.27	4.00
TLT	USD	iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond	---	---	---	2.86	2.66	2.86	0.22	-9.22	-0.29	4.70	4.73
GLD	USD	SPDR Gold Trust	---	---	---	25.90	0.41	25.90	41.77	12.74	10.49	7.10	3.21
Returns over 1 year are annualized
(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)
The live monthly return is calculated by assuming, for each asset, the weight defined by the base asset allocation.
US Inflation is updated to May 2025. Pending updates, the monthly inflation is set at 0% for the subsequent periods. Inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 2.43% , 5Y: 4.53% , 10Y: 3.04% , 30Y: 2.51%

In 2024, the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio granted a 2.65% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.

Readings that may interest you

Portfolio Metrics as of Jun 30, 2025

Metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:

no fees or capital gain taxes.
rebalancing: at every January 1^st. How do returns change with different rebalancing strategies?
dividend reinvestment, when applicable.
the actual US Inflation rates.

HARRY BROWNE PERMANENT PORTFOLIO

Advanced Metrics

1 January 1871 - 30 June 2025 (~155 years)

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	Metrics as of Jun 30, 2025
	YTD (6M)	1M	3M	6M	1Y	3Y	5Y	10Y	20Y	30Y	MAX (~155Y)
Investment Return (%)	9.09	2.03	3.87	9.09	15.44	10.26	5.74	6.58	7.01	6.85	5.86
Growth of 1$	1.09	1.02	1.04	1.09	1.15	1.34	1.32	1.89	3.88	7.29	6.7K
Infl. Adjusted Return (%)	8.08	2.03	3.56	8.08	12.70	7.23	1.17	3.43	4.35	4.23	3.66
US Inflation (%)	0.94	0.00	0.30	0.94	2.43	2.82	4.53	3.04	2.55	2.51	2.12
Pending updates, the monthly inflation of Jun 2025 and beyond is set at 0%. Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized.
DRAWDOWN Inflation Adjusted: Inflation Adjusted:				Current	1Y	3Y	5Y	10Y	20Y	30Y	MAX
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%)				0.00	-2.51	-7.15	-15.92	-15.92	-15.92	-15.92	-30.61
Start to Recovery (# months)					2	6	27	27	27	27	46
Start (yyyy mm)					2024 12	2022 08	2022 01	2022 01	2022 01	2022 01	1929 09
Start to Bottom (# months)					1	2	9	9	9	9	33
Bottom (yyyy mm)					2024 12	2022 09	2022 09	2022 09	2022 09	2022 09	1932 05
Bottom to End (# months)					1	4	18	18	18	18	13
End (yyyy mm)					2025 01	2023 01	2024 03	2024 03	2024 03	2024 03	1933 06
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)					-0.13	same	same	same	same	same	-14.17
Start to Recovery (# months)					2	same	same	same	same	same	53
Start (yyyy mm)					2024 10	2022 08	2022 01	2022 01	2022 01	2022 01	1937 03
Start to Bottom (# months)					1	2	9	9	9	9	13
Bottom (yyyy mm)					2024 10	2022 09	2022 09	2022 09	2022 09	2022 09	1938 03
Bottom to End (# months)					1	4	18	18	18	18	40
End (yyyy mm)					2024 11	2023 01	2024 03	2024 03	2024 03	2024 03	1941 07
Longest negative period (# months)					3	15	40	40	40	40	80
Start (yyyy mm)					2024 10	2022 08	2020 07	2020 07	2020 07	2020 07	1925 11
End (yyyy mm)					2024 12	2023 10	2023 10	2023 10	2023 10	2023 10	1932 06
Annualized Return (%)					-5.14	-1.23	-0.31	-0.31	-0.31	-0.31	0.00
Adjusting for units held makes the drawdown reflect real performance, just like in the no-cash-flow case.
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%)				0.00	-2.89	-7.92	-23.09	-23.09	-23.09	-23.09	-45.48
Start to Recovery (# months)					3	9	59	59	59	59	182
Start (yyyy mm)					2024 12	2022 08	2020 08	2020 08	2020 08	2020 08	1911 07
Start to Bottom (# months)					1	3	27	27	27	27	108
Bottom (yyyy mm)					2024 12	2022 10	2022 10	2022 10	2022 10	2022 10	1920 06
Bottom to End (# months)					2	6	32	32	32	32	74
End (yyyy mm)					2025 02	2023 04	2025 06	2025 06	2025 06	2025 06	1926 08
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)					same	same	same	same	same	same	same
Start to Recovery (# months)					same	same	same	same	same	same	same
Start (yyyy mm)					2024 12	2022 08	2020 08	2020 08	2020 08	2020 08	1911 07
Start to Bottom (# months)					1	3	27	27	27	27	108
Bottom (yyyy mm)					2024 12	2022 10	2022 10	2022 10	2022 10	2022 10	1920 06
Bottom to End (# months)					2	6	32	32	32	32	74
End (yyyy mm)					2025 02	2023 04	2025 06	2025 06	2025 06	2025 06	1926 08
Longest negative period (# months)					4	16	58	87	87	87	341
Start (yyyy mm)					2024 10	2022 07	2020 08	2016 08	2016 08	2016 08	1892 02
End (yyyy mm)					2025 01	2023 10	2025 05	2023 10	2023 10	2023 10	1920 06
Annualized Return (%)					-0.31	-2.83	-0.19	-0.11	-0.11	-0.11	-0.01
Adjusting for units held makes the drawdown reflect real performance, just like in the no-cash-flow case.
RISK INDICATORS					1Y	3Y	5Y	10Y	20Y	30Y	MAX
Standard Deviation (%)					4.86	8.50	8.44	7.25	7.16	6.65	5.81
Sharpe Ratio					2.22	0.68	0.36	0.66	0.76	0.69	0.32
Sortino Ratio					2.69	0.92	0.50	0.92	1.07	0.96	0.48
Ulcer Index					0.70	2.40	5.91	4.44	3.73	3.20	3.52
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation					3.18	1.21	0.68	0.91	0.98	1.03	1.01
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown					6.14	1.43	0.36	0.41	0.44	0.43	0.19
Positive Months (%)					83.33	66.66	60.00	61.66	60.83	63.33	64.29
Positive Months					10	24	36	74	146	228	1192
Negative Months					2	12	24	46	94	132	662
LONG TERM RETURNS Inflation Adjusted: Inflation Adjusted:					1Y	3Y	5Y	10Y	20Y	30Y	MAX
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized								6.58	7.45	9.82	15.81
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized								6.58	3.32	3.32	2.28
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized								3.43	5.58	7.16	9.44
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized								3.43	0.78	0.78	-4.49
TIMEFRAMES Inflation Adjusted: Inflation Adjusted:		1M	3M	6M	1Y	3Y	5Y	10Y	20Y	30Y	MAX
··· As of Jun 2025 - Over the previous 30Y
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized					24.07	15.69	11.16	9.82	7.56	6.85
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized					-14.61	-1.51	2.72	3.32	6.11	6.85
Positive Periods (%)					86.5	98.7	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized					21.15	14.01	8.49	7.16	5.23	4.23
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized					-20.75	-6.85	-0.29	0.78	3.51	4.23
Positive Periods (%)					79.0	88.6	99.3	100.0	100.0	100.0
95% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative		2.59	3.76	4.31	4.32	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
95% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%)		3.38	5.14	6.26	8.20	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
99% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative		3.90	6.02	7.51	12.31	2.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
99% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%)		4.73	7.46	9.55	13.57	3.72	0.00	0.00	0.00
Short term VaRs: analytical \| 1+ year VaRs: historical data
Safe Withdrawal Rate (%)					88.12	29.10	18.88	10.78	6.99	5.93
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%)					---	---	---	0.82	3.73	4.22
% based on initial capital, inflation-adj. monthly withdrawals afterwards \| Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
··· All available data (Jan 1871 - Jun 2025)
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized					46.69	22.66	17.20	15.81	11.96	10.48
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized					-20.29	-10.10	-2.35	2.28	3.13	3.28
Positive Periods (%)					84.2	97.9	99.0	100.0	100.0	100.0
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized					57.08	16.08	12.65	9.44	7.54	6.34
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized					-20.75	-12.87	-10.46	-4.49	-1.29	0.32
Positive Periods (%)					69.6	84.2	88.2	89.3	97.0	100.0
95% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative		2.27	3.31	3.82	3.86	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
95% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%)		2.96	4.51	5.52	7.54	2.96	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
99% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative		3.41	5.29	6.61	10.06	8.27	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
99% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%)		4.14	6.55	8.40	13.84	17.81	4.03	0.00	0.00	0.00
Short term VaRs: analytical \| 1+ year VaRs: historical data
Safe Withdrawal Rate (%)					86.80	26.20	14.45	7.67	4.42	3.32
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%)					---	---	---	---	---	0.46
% based on initial capital, inflation-adj. monthly withdrawals afterwards \| Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com

Terms and Definitions

Annualized Portfolio Return: the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio. When cashflows are involved, it is calculated using the Money-Weighted Rate of Return (MWRR), based on the Modified Dietz formula.
Deepest/Longest Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. The deepest (or maximum) drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained. The longest drawdown is the period observed from a peak to the subsequent peak with the greatest duration. When cashflows are involved, portfolio values are normalized by the invested capital (i.e. owned quotes) at each time step: this isolates the effect of market performance from capital contributions, avoiding misleading drawdowns caused by large inflows that artificially lift portfolio value and, as a result, the drawdowns match the ones without cash flows.
Longest negative period: it's the maximum period for which an overall negative return has been observed.
Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean.
Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return.
Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation).
Ulcer Index: it's a measure of downside risk that quantifies the depth and duration of drawdowns in an investment portfolio.
Best/Worst 10Y returns: the best and the worst 10-year return over a time frame.
Rolling Returns: N-year returns over a time frame, calculated over all the available data source (best, worst, % of positive returns). Each rolling period, longer than the longest negative period, yielded a non-negative minimum return.
Value at Risk (VaR): it's an evaluation of a cumulative worst-case loss (in absolute value), associated with a probability (95%-99%) and a time horizon. For short term, it's calculated based on the expected return and standard deviation, assuming a normal distribution of monthly returns. For long term is retrieved by the historical rolling return data.
Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR): it represents the average expected loss if that worst-case threshold (95%-99%) is ever crossed.
Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money in any case (money amount withdrawal).
For instance: Your initial invested capital is 100.000$; withdrawal rate (annualized) is 4%. This means that, in the first month, you will withdraw 100.000 * 4% * 1/12 = 333.33$. The second month, you’ll withdraw 333.33$ plus the inflation monthly rate. You’ll continue adjusting your withdraw monthly for inflation.
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too.

Talking about withdrawal rates, how would you manage your early retirement with the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio? Read more here

Portfolio Components Correlation

Correlation measures to what degree the returns of two assets move in relation to each other. It is a statistical measure that describes the extent to which the returns of one asset are related to the returns of another asset.

COMPONENTS MONTHLY CORRELATIONS

Monthly correlations as of 30 June 2025

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Terms and Definitions

Correlation values range between -1 and +1

A correlation of +1 indicates that the returns of the two assets move in perfect synchrony; when one asset's returns go up, the other asset's returns also go up by the same percentage, and vice versa. This perfect positive correlation implies that the assets perform similarly in different market conditions.
A correlation of -1 indicates a perfect inverse relationship between the returns of the two assets. When one asset's returns go up, the other asset's returns go down by the same percentage. This perfect negative correlation suggests that the assets move in opposite directions, providing a diversification benefit by reducing overall portfolio risk.
A correlation of 0 means that there is no linear relationship between the returns of the two assets. The returns of one asset do not predict the returns of the other.

Learn about historical correlations here: see how the main asset classes relate to each other.

Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

HARRY BROWNE PERMANENT PORTFOLIO

Drawdown periods

Drawdown periods - Inflation Adjusted

1 July 1995 - 30 June 2025 (30 Years)

1 January 1871 - 30 June 2025 (~155 years)

30 Years
(1995/07 - 2025/06)

All Data
(1871/01 - 2025/06)

Inflation Adjusted:

Chart Table Range

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Rolling Returns

For a detailed rolling return analysis, click here
Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio: Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

HARRY BROWNE PERMANENT PORTFOLIO

Annualized Rolling Returns

Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted

1 July 1995 - 30 June 2025 (30 Years)

1 January 1871 - 30 June 2025 (~155 years)

30 Years
(1995/07 - 2025/06)

All Data
(1871/01 - 2025/06)

Inflation Adjusted:

Return Chart Capital Chart Table

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The values shown for the rolling periods represent key statistical points: the minimum, maximum, median, and the 15th and 85th percentiles. These percentiles give insight into the distribution of the data, indicating the range within which the central 70% of the values lie, while the median represents the middle value.

Seasonality

In which months is it better to invest in Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio?

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past. They are retrieved considering the time period from January 1871 to June 2025.

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For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.

Monthly Returns

This section provides a visual/tabular representation of the performance variability in the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio over time. It illustrates the distribution of monthly returns, showcasing the range and frequency of positive and negative returns.

HARRY BROWNE PERMANENT PORTFOLIO

Monthly Returns Distribution

1 July 1995 - 30 June 2025 (30 Years)

1 January 1871 - 30 June 2025 (~155 years)

228 Positive Months (63%) - 132 Negative Months (37%)

1192 Positive Months (64%) - 662 Negative Months (36%)

30 Years
(1995/07 - 2025/06)

All Data
(1871/01 - 2025/06)

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Methodology

Returns, up to December 2007, have been derived using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.
You can find additional information on extended Data Sources here.

In particular, the series derived from equivalent datasets are:

Vanguard Total Stock Market (VTI), up to December 2001
SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill (BIL), up to December 2007
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT), up to December 2002
SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), up to December 2004

Portfolio efficiency

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Table of contents

Resources & Extras

Asset Allocation and ETFs

Portfolio and ETF Returns as of Jun 30, 2025

Portfolio Metrics as of Jun 30, 2025

Portfolio Components Correlation

Drawdowns

Rolling Returns

Seasonality

Monthly Returns

Portfolio efficiency