Last Update: 31 December 2020
The Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio is exposed for 25% on the Stock Market and for 25% on Commodities.
It's a Medium Risk portfolio and it can be replicated with 4 ETFs.
In the last 10 years, the portfolio obtained a 6.66% compound annual return, with a 6.18% standard deviation.
In 2020, the portfolio granted a 0.94% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.
Asset Allocation and ETFs
The Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio has the following asset allocation:
The Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio can be replicated with the following ETFs:
Weight | Ticker | ETF Name | Investment Themes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
25.00 % | VTI | Vanguard Total Stock Market | Equity, U.S., Large Cap | |
25.00 % | TLT | iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond | Bond, U.S., Long-Term | |
25.00 % | BIL | SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill | Bond, U.S., Ultra Short-Term | |
25.00 % | GLD | SPDR Gold Trust | Commodity, Gold |
Portfolio and ETF Returns
The Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.
1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y(*) | 5Y(*) | 10Y(*) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio | +2.68 | +2.83 | +6.53 | +16.10 | +9.83 | +9.19 | +6.66 |
Components | |||||||
VTI - Vanguard Total Stock Market | +4.68 | +14.75 | +25.36 | +21.03 | +14.45 | +15.44 | +13.77 |
TLT - iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond | -1.23 | -2.98 | -3.05 | +18.15 | +9.88 | +7.95 | +8.12 |
BIL - SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.01 | +0.40 | +1.39 | +0.99 | +0.46 |
GLD - SPDR Gold Trust | +7.01 | +0.70 | +6.57 | +24.81 | +12.99 | +11.94 | +2.55 |
- a rebalancing of the components at the beginning of each year (i.e. at every January 1st)
- the reinvestment of dividends
If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.
Historical Returns
Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio - Historical returns and stats.
Period | Returns Dec 2020 |
Standard Deviation * |
Max Drawdown |
Months Pos - Neg |
---|---|---|---|---|
1M
|
+2.68%
|
0.00%
|
1 - 0 | |
3M
|
+2.83%
|
-1.51%
Oct 2020 - Oct 2020
|
2 - 1 | |
6M
|
+6.53%
|
-3.30%
Sep 2020 - Oct 2020
|
4 - 2 | |
YTD
|
+16.10%
|
7.93%
|
-3.30%
Sep 2020 - Oct 2020
|
8 - 4 |
1Y
|
+16.10%
|
7.93%
|
-3.30%
Sep 2020 - Oct 2020
|
8 - 4 |
3Y
|
+9.83%
annualized
|
6.42%
|
-4.27%
Feb 2018 - Oct 2018
|
26 - 10 |
5Y
|
+9.19%
annualized
|
6.20%
|
-6.98%
Aug 2016 - Dec 2016
|
41 - 19 |
10Y
|
+6.66%
annualized
|
6.18%
|
-6.98%
Aug 2016 - Dec 2016
|
72 - 48 |
MAX
01 Jan 1978
|
+8.48%
annualized
|
7.18%
|
-12.62%
Mar 2008 - Oct 2008
|
333 - 183 |
* Annualized St.Dev. of monthly returns
Best Medium Risk Porftolios, ordered by 10Y annualized return.
Portfolio | 10Y Return ▾ | Stocks | Bonds | Comm. | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Couch Potato Scott Burns |
+8.93% | 50 | 50 | 0 | Compare | |
Stocks/Bonds 40/60 |
+7.90% | 40 | 60 | 0 | Compare | |
All Weather Portfolio Ray Dalio |
+7.77% | 30 | 55 | 15 | Compare | |
Robo Advisor 50 Betterment |
+6.98% | 49.9 | 50.1 | 0 | Compare | |
Edge Select Moderately Conservative Merrill Lynch |
+6.93% | 37 | 63 | 0 | Compare |
Capital Growth
Drawdowns
Rolling Returns ( more details)
Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio: annualized rolling and average returns
Return (*) | Negative Periods |
|||
---|---|---|---|---|
Rolling Period | Average | Best | Worst | |
1 Year |
+8.68% |
+45.29% Feb 1979 - Jan 1980 |
-9.87% Oct 1980 - Sep 1981 |
12.28% |
2 Years |
+8.29% |
+30.12% Jul 1978 - Jun 1980 |
-4.36% Jul 1980 - Jun 1982 |
1.01% |
3 Years |
+7.95% |
+21.45% Jan 1978 - Dec 1980 |
+0.68% Oct 2012 - Sep 2015 |
0.00% |
5 Years |
+7.88% |
+16.49% May 1978 - Apr 1983 |
+2.72% Feb 2012 - Jan 2017 |
0.00% |
7 Years |
+7.83% |
+14.07% Apr 1979 - Mar 1986 |
+3.19% Nov 2011 - Oct 2018 |
0.00% |
10 Years |
+7.78% |
+13.00% Feb 1978 - Jan 1988 |
+5.58% Mar 2008 - Feb 2018 |
0.00% |
15 Years |
+7.65% |
+11.02% Jul 1978 - Jun 1993 |
+5.69% Aug 1987 - Jul 2002 |
0.00% |
* Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods
If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.
Seasonality and Yearly/Monthly Returns
Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Seasonality
Months | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Return (%) | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
Average | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
Best |
6.8 1980 |
4.0 1986 |
4.9 1986 |
5.9 1980 |
4.9 2003 |
7.7 1980 |
5.4 2020 |
9.6 1982 |
7.7 1979 |
6.7 1982 |
5.6 2008 |
9.3 1979 |
Worst |
-4.6 1981 |
-2.7 1983 |
-9.3 1980 |
-4.2 2004 |
-2.4 2013 |
-3.5 2013 |
-2.3 2002 |
-4.2 1998 |
-2.6 2014 |
-8.5 2008 |
-5.3 1978 |
-2.6 2009 |
Gain Frequency |
74 | 58 | 58 | 74 | 70 | 58 | 58 | 65 | 60 | 58 | 70 | 70 |
Detail of Monthly Returns
Months | |||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Return | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
2020 |
+16.10% | 3.1 | -0.3 | -1.3 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 5.4 | 0.1 | -1.8 | -1.5 | 1.7 | 2.7 |
2019 |
+16.17% | 3.0 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 4.1 | 0.5 | 4.2 | -1.1 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.9 |
2018 |
-1.76% | 1.3 | -2.2 | 0.4 | -0.6 | 0.9 | -0.5 | 0.0 | 0.8 | -0.8 | -2.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
2017 |
+10.97% | 2.0 | 2.2 | -0.3 | 1.1 | 0.7 | -0.1 | 0.9 | 2.0 | -0.8 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 1.3 |
2016 |
+5.54% | 1.3 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 1.4 | -1.1 | 4.2 | 2.0 | -1.1 | -0.2 | -2.5 | -3.3 | -0.1 |
2015 |
-3.06% | 3.9 | -1.8 | -0.6 | -0.8 | -0.1 | -1.8 | -0.1 | -0.9 | -0.7 | 2.4 | -1.7 | -0.7 |
2014 |
+9.40% | 1.6 | 2.9 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 2.1 | -1.3 | 2.4 | -2.6 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.2 |
2013 |
-2.08% | 0.4 | -0.6 | 1.2 | -0.2 | -2.4 | -3.5 | 2.6 | -0.2 | 0.3 | 1.6 | -0.9 | -0.2 |
2012 |
+6.41% | 4.0 | -0.3 | -0.5 | 0.9 | -1.2 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | -1.4 | 0.4 | -0.9 |
2011 |
+11.11% | -1.9 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 3.6 | 0.1 | -1.7 | 2.7 | 4.2 | -1.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | -1.7 |
2010 |
+13.92% | -0.5 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 2.8 | 0.0 | 0.7 | -0.1 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 1.5 |
2009 |
+7.85% | -3.9 | -2.5 | 2.0 | 0.1 | 3.3 | -1.2 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 3.2 | -0.3 | 5.5 | -2.6 |
2008 |
+0.87% | 1.8 | 0.8 | -1.3 | -0.7 | 0.1 | -0.1 | -0.6 | -1.5 | -0.6 | -8.5 | 5.6 | 6.5 |
2007 |
+12.69% | 1.0 | 1.2 | -0.3 | 1.9 | -0.1 | -1.1 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 3.8 | 2.8 | -0.3 | 1.6 |
2006 |
+10.94% | 3.0 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 3.0 | -1.1 | -1.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.2 | 1.5 | 3.1 | -0.7 |
2005 |
+8.91% | -0.6 | 0.9 | -0.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.8 | -0.1 | 1.0 | 1.1 | -1.3 | 2.9 | 2.2 |
2004 |
+6.83% | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.8 | -4.2 | 0.6 | 1.0 | -0.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 |
2003 |
+13.32% | 0.7 | -1.0 | -1.1 | 2.5 | 4.9 | -1.1 | -1.3 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 2.6 |
2002 |
+5.85% | 0.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 1.4 | -1.8 | -2.3 | 2.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 2.6 |
2001 |
-0.52% | 0.3 | -1.7 | -2.5 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.6 | -0.1 | 0.0 |
2000 |
+2.40% | -1.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | -1.5 | -1.1 | 3.2 | -0.9 | 2.5 | -1.6 | -0.7 | -1.0 | 1.7 |
1999 |
+5.17% | 1.0 | -1.9 | 0.4 | 2.0 | -2.4 | 0.6 | -1.4 | -0.3 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 1.8 |
1998 |
+10.09% | 2.0 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.3 | -1.6 | 1.9 | -1.3 | -4.2 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.2 |
1997 |
+7.19% | -0.3 | 0.9 | -2.3 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 3.1 | -1.7 | 2.9 | -1.5 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
1996 |
+5.08% | 2.0 | -1.0 | -0.4 | 0.0 | 0.7 | -0.2 | -1.2 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 2.2 | -1.0 |
1995 |
+18.11% | 0.8 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
1994 |
-1.37% | 0.5 | -1.3 | -1.5 | -0.9 | 1.0 | -0.8 | 1.3 | 1.2 | -0.5 | -0.3 | -0.8 | 0.8 |
1993 |
+12.00% | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 0.0 | -1.0 | 1.6 | -0.9 | 2.1 |
1992 |
+3.57% | -0.7 | 0.5 | -1.6 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 3.1 | -1.5 | 1.3 | -0.8 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
1991 |
+11.72% | 0.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 1.4 | -0.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | -0.5 | 3.9 |
1990 |
+1.11% | -1.5 | 0.0 | -1.8 | -1.3 | 3.1 | -0.1 | 1.4 | -2.2 | 0.6 | -1.4 | 3.1 | 1.5 |
1989 |
+12.90% | 1.3 | -1.2 | 0.7 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 2.5 | -0.4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 2.7 | 0.1 |
1988 |
+4.39% | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.7 | -0.3 | 0.0 | 1.5 | -0.5 | -1.0 | 0.6 | 2.1 | -0.3 | 0.4 |
1987 |
+7.42% | 4.4 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | -0.3 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 0.4 | -1.0 | -4.8 | -0.1 | 1.6 |
1986 |
+17.64% | 2.2 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 2.5 | -1.3 | 4.6 | -0.5 | -0.1 | 0.5 | -0.8 |
1985 |
+20.47% | 3.3 | -2.1 | 4.2 | 0.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 1.1 | -1.5 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 3.3 |
1984 |
+2.22% | -0.3 | 0.1 | -0.4 | -0.9 | -2.0 | 0.6 | -0.7 | 4.3 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 0.0 | -0.2 |
1983 |
+3.46% | 2.5 | -2.7 | 1.3 | 3.9 | -0.1 | 0.3 | -1.8 | -0.2 | 1.4 | -2.3 | 2.8 | -1.5 |
1982 |
+23.27% | -1.3 | -2.1 | -2.2 | 5.0 | -2.4 | -1.5 | 2.8 | 9.6 | 1.6 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 2.6 |
1981 |
-5.34% | -4.6 | -1.2 | 3.5 | -2.9 | 1.9 | -2.4 | -1.5 | -1.4 | -1.5 | 3.5 | 4.0 | -2.4 |
1980 |
+13.65% | 6.8 | -2.3 | -9.3 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 7.7 | -1.4 | 0.8 | 2.0 | -1.5 | 2.8 | -1.3 |
1979 |
+39.77% | 2.7 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 3.6 | 7.7 | -4.5 | 5.1 | 9.3 |
1978 |
+12.78% | 0.1 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 2.6 | -0.4 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | -5.3 | 5.0 |
* Note: Portofolio Returns, up to December 2007, are simulated. They have been calculated using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.
In particular, it has been used:
VTI - Vanguard Total Stock Market: simulated historical serie, up to December 2001
TLT - iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond: simulated historical serie, up to December 2002
BIL - SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
GLD - SPDR Gold Trust: simulated historical serie, up to December 2004