Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns

Last Update: 30 September 2020

The Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio is exposed for 25% on the Stock Market and for 25% on Commodities.

It's a Medium Risk portfolio and it can be replicated with 4 ETFs.

In the last 10 years, the portfolio obtained a 6.62% compound annual return, with a 6.10% standard deviation.

In 2019, the portfolio granted a 1.73% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.

Asset Allocation and ETFs

The Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio has the following asset allocation:

        25% Stocks
      
        50% Fixed Income
      
        25% Commodities

The Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio can be replicated with the following ETFs:

Weight	Ticker	ETF Name	Investment Themes
25.00 %	VTI	Vanguard Total Stock Market	Equity, U.S., Large Cap
25.00 %	BIL	SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill	Bond, U.S., Ultra Short-Term
25.00 %	TLT	iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond	Bond, U.S., Long-Term
25.00 %	GLD	SPDR Gold Trust	Commodity, Gold

Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

Portfolio and ETF Returns

The Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.

HARRY BROWNE PERMANENT PORTFOLIO RETURNS (%)

Last Update: 30 September 2020

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	1M	3M	6M	1Y	*3Y^()**	*5Y^()**	*10Y^()**
Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio	-1.82	+3.59	+11.41	+15.09	+9.83	+8.55	+6.62
*Components*
VTI - Vanguard Total Stock Market	-3.54	+9.24	+33.25	+14.90	+11.63	+13.68	+13.48
BIL - SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill	-0.02	-0.01	-0.05	+0.78	+1.45	+0.98	+0.46
TLT - iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond	+0.77	-0.07	-0.30	+16.11	+11.92	+8.26	+7.36
GLD - SPDR Gold Trust	-4.17	+5.83	+19.64	+27.54	+13.36	+10.63	+3.31

(*) annualized

Portfolio returns are calculated assuming:

a rebalancing of the components at the beginning of each year (i.e. at every January 1st)
the reinvestment of dividends

If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.

Historical Returns

Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio - Historical returns and stats.

HARRY BROWNE PERMANENT PORTFOLIO

Last Update: 30 September 2020

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Period	Returns Sep 2020	Standard Deviation *	Max Drawdown	Months Pos - Neg
1M	-1.82%		-1.82% Sep 2020 - Sep 2020	0 - 1
3M	+3.59%		-1.82% Sep 2020 - Sep 2020	2 - 1
6M	+11.41%		-1.82% Sep 2020 - Sep 2020	5 - 1
YTD	+12.90%		-1.82% Sep 2020 - Sep 2020	6 - 3
1Y	+15.09%	7.39%	-1.82% Sep 2020 - Sep 2020	9 - 3
3Y	+9.83% annualized	6.18%	-4.27% Feb 2018 - Oct 2018	27 - 9
5Y	+8.55% annualized	6.22%	-6.98% Aug 2016 - Dec 2016	40 - 20
10Y	+6.62% annualized	6.10%	-6.98% Aug 2016 - Dec 2016	73 - 47
MAX 01 Jan 1978	+8.46% annualized	7.19%	-12.62% Mar 2008 - Oct 2008	331 - 182

* Annualized St.Dev. of monthly returns

Best Medium Risk Porftolios, ordered by 10Y annualized return.

Portfolio	10Y Return ▾	Stocks	Bonds	Comm.
Couch Potato Scott Burns	+8.67%	50	50	0	Compare
Stocks/Bonds 40/60	+7.64%	40	60	0	Compare
All Weather Portfolio Ray Dalio	+7.44%	30	55	15	Compare
Permanent Portfolio Harry Browne	+6.62%	25	50	25
Edge Select Moderately Conservative Merrill Lynch	+6.58%	37	63	0	Compare

See all portfolios

Capital Growth

Time Range:

Drawdowns

Time Range:

Worst drawdowns since September 2010.

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	Drawdown period			Recovery period		Total
Drawdown	Start	Bottom	#Months	End	#Months	#Months
-6.98%	Aug 2016	Dec 2016	5	Aug 2017	8	13
-6.84%	Oct 2012	Jun 2013	9	Feb 2014	8	17
-6.70%	Feb 2015	Dec 2015	11	Apr 2016	4	15
-4.27%	Feb 2018	Oct 2018	9	Feb 2019	4	13
-2.62%	Sep 2014	Sep 2014	1	Dec 2014	3	4
-1.85%	Jan 2011	Jan 2011	1	Feb 2011	1	2
-1.82%	Sep 2020	Sep 2020	1	in progress	0	1
-1.69%	Dec 2011	Dec 2011	1	Jan 2012	1	2
-1.68%	Feb 2020	Mar 2020	2	Apr 2020	1	3
-1.66%	Jun 2011	Jun 2011	1	Jul 2011	1	2
-1.40%	Sep 2011	Sep 2011	1	Oct 2011	1	2
-1.26%	Jul 2014	Jul 2014	1	Aug 2014	1	2
-1.19%	May 2012	May 2012	1	Jul 2012	2	3
-1.12%	May 2016	May 2016	1	Jun 2016	1	2
-1.10%	Sep 2019	Sep 2019	1	Dec 2019	3	4
-0.87%	Feb 2012	Mar 2012	2	Apr 2012	1	3
-0.83%	Sep 2017	Sep 2017	1	Nov 2017	2	3
-0.52%	Mar 2014	Mar 2014	1	Apr 2014	1	2

Worst drawdowns since December 1977.

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	Drawdown period			Recovery period		Total
Drawdown	Start	Bottom	#Months	End	#Months	#Months
-12.62%	Mar 2008	Oct 2008	8	Aug 2009	10	18
-11.68%	Dec 1980	Mar 1982	16	Aug 1982	5	21
-11.38%	Feb 1980	Mar 1980	2	Jun 1980	3	5
-6.98%	Aug 2016	Dec 2016	5	Aug 2017	8	13
-6.84%	Oct 2012	Jun 2013	9	Feb 2014	8	17
-6.70%	Feb 2015	Dec 2015	11	Apr 2016	4	15
-5.79%	Sep 1987	Nov 1987	3	Jan 1989	14	17
-5.42%	Sep 2000	Mar 2001	7	Mar 2002	12	19
-5.35%	Jul 1998	Aug 1998	2	Oct 1998	2	4
-5.31%	Nov 1978	Nov 1978	1	Jan 1979	2	3
-5.13%	Jul 1983	Jul 1984	13	Oct 1984	3	16
-4.53%	Jan 1990	Apr 1990	4	Dec 1990	8	12
-4.50%	Oct 1979	Oct 1979	1	Nov 1979	1	2
-4.27%	Feb 2018	Oct 2018	9	Feb 2019	4	13
-4.20%	Apr 2004	Apr 2004	1	Oct 2004	6	7
-4.02%	Jun 2002	Jul 2002	2	Dec 2002	5	7
-3.63%	Feb 1994	Apr 1994	3	Feb 1995	10	13
-3.55%	May 1999	Aug 1999	4	Oct 1999	2	6
-3.07%	Dec 2009	Jan 2010	2	Apr 2010	3	5
-2.70%	Feb 1983	Feb 1983	1	Apr 1983	2	3

Rolling Returns

Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio: annualized rolling and average returns

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	*Return ()**			Negative Periods
Rolling Period	Average	Best	Worst	Negative Periods
1 Year	+8.64%	+45.29% Feb 1979 - Jan 1980	-9.87% Oct 1980 - Sep 1981	12.35%
2 Years	+8.25%	+30.12% Jul 1978 - Jun 1980	-4.36% Jul 1980 - Jun 1982	1.02%
3 Years	+7.94%	+21.45% Jan 1978 - Dec 1980	+0.68% Oct 2012 - Sep 2015	0.00%
5 Years	+7.87%	+16.49% May 1978 - Apr 1983	+2.72% Feb 2012 - Jan 2017	0.00%
7 Years	+7.83%	+14.07% Apr 1979 - Mar 1986	+3.19% Nov 2011 - Oct 2018	0.00%
10 Years	+7.79%	+13.00% Feb 1978 - Jan 1988	+5.58% Mar 2008 - Feb 2018	0.00%
15 Years	+7.65%	+11.02% Jul 1978 - Jun 1993	+5.69% Aug 1987 - Jul 2002	0.00%

* Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods

Seasonality and Yearly/Monthly Returns

Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Seasonality

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	Months
Return (%)	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Average	1.0	0.2	0.2	0.9	0.7	0.6	0.7	1.1	0.7	0.2	1.1	1.1
Best	6.8 1980	4.0 1986	4.9 1986	5.9 1980	4.9 2003	7.7 1980	5.4 2020	9.6 1982	7.7 1979	6.7 1982	5.6 2008	9.3 1979
Worst	-4.6 1981	-2.7 1983	-9.3 1980	-4.2 2004	-2.4 2013	-3.5 2013	-2.3 2002	-4.2 1998	-2.6 2014	-8.5 2008	-5.3 1978	-2.6 2009
Gain Frequency	74	58	58	74	70	58	58	65	60	60	69	69

Detail of Monthly Returns

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		Months
Year	Return	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
2020	+12.90%	3.1	-0.3	-1.3	4.8	1.3	1.3	5.4	0.1	-1.8
2019	+16.17%	3.0	0.5	1.4	0.5	0.3	4.1	0.5	4.2	-1.1	0.9	0.1	0.9
2018	-1.76%	1.3	-2.2	0.4	-0.6	0.9	-0.5	0.0	0.8	-0.8	-2.2	1.1	0.2
2017	+10.97%	2.0	2.2	-0.3	1.1	0.7	-0.1	0.9	2.0	-0.8	0.4	1.1	1.3
2016	+5.54%	1.3	3.6	1.3	1.4	-1.1	4.2	2.0	-1.1	-0.2	-2.5	-3.3	-0.1
2015	-3.06%	3.9	-1.8	-0.6	-0.8	-0.1	-1.8	-0.1	-0.9	-0.7	2.4	-1.7	-0.7
2014	+9.40%	1.6	2.9	-0.5	0.7	0.5	2.1	-1.3	2.4	-2.6	0.7	1.4	1.2
2013	-2.08%	0.4	-0.6	1.2	-0.2	-2.4	-3.5	2.6	-0.2	0.3	1.6	-0.9	-0.2
2012	+6.41%	4.0	-0.3	-0.5	0.9	-1.2	1.2	1.4	1.6	1.2	-1.4	0.4	-0.9
2011	+11.11%	-1.9	2.8	0.5	3.6	0.1	-1.7	2.7	4.2	-1.4	2.7	0.9	-1.7
2010	+13.92%	-0.5	1.6	1.0	2.8	0.0	0.7	-0.1	2.6	2.6	0.7	0.3	1.5
2009	+7.85%	-3.9	-2.5	2.0	0.1	3.3	-1.2	2.8	1.5	3.2	-0.3	5.5	-2.6
2008	+0.87%	1.8	0.8	-1.3	-0.7	0.1	-0.1	-0.6	-1.5	-0.6	-8.5	5.6	6.5
2007	+12.69%	1.0	1.2	-0.3	1.9	-0.1	-1.1	0.6	1.2	3.8	2.8	-0.3	1.6
2006	+10.94%	3.0	0.1	0.5	3.0	-1.1	-1.0	1.5	1.0	-0.2	1.5	3.1	-0.7
2005	+8.91%	-0.6	0.9	-0.9	0.8	0.8	1.8	-0.1	1.0	1.1	-1.3	2.9	2.2
2004	+6.83%	0.1	0.7	1.8	-4.2	0.6	1.0	-0.8	2.1	1.2	1.5	2.2	0.6
2003	+13.32%	0.7	-1.0	-1.1	2.5	4.9	-1.1	-1.3	2.4	1.9	0.8	1.3	2.6
2002	+5.85%	0.6	1.2	0.3	0.4	1.4	-1.8	-2.3	2.1	0.1	0.0	1.1	2.6
2001	-0.52%	0.3	-1.7	-2.5	1.8	0.8	0.2	0.2	-0.1	0.2	0.6	-0.1	0.0
2000	+2.40%	-1.2	2.4	0.9	-1.5	-1.1	3.2	-0.9	2.5	-1.6	-0.7	-1.0	1.7
1999	+5.17%	1.0	-1.9	0.4	2.0	-2.4	0.6	-1.4	-0.3	3.6	1.8	0.2	1.8
1998	+10.09%	2.0	1.1	1.8	1.3	-1.6	1.9	-1.3	-4.2	4.3	1.3	2.1	1.2
1997	+7.19%	-0.3	0.9	-2.3	1.3	2.6	1.0	3.1	-1.7	2.9	-1.5	0.5	0.7
1996	+5.08%	2.0	-1.0	-0.4	0.0	0.7	-0.2	-1.2	0.7	1.7	1.4	2.2	-1.0
1995	+18.11%	0.8	1.9	2.0	1.0	2.6	1.4	0.6	0.9	1.7	0.5	2.2	1.2
1994	-1.37%	0.5	-1.3	-1.5	-0.9	1.0	-0.8	1.3	1.2	-0.5	-0.3	-0.8	0.8
1993	+12.00%	0.8	0.8	1.5	0.8	2.6	1.3	2.0	0.0	-1.0	1.6	-0.9	2.1
1992	+3.57%	-0.7	0.5	-1.6	0.0	1.0	0.3	3.1	-1.5	1.3	-0.8	0.9	1.1
1991	+11.72%	0.3	1.8	0.5	0.7	1.4	-0.9	1.5	0.8	1.0	0.7	-0.5	3.9
1990	+1.11%	-1.5	0.0	-1.8	-1.3	3.1	-0.1	1.4	-2.2	0.6	-1.4	3.1	1.5
1989	+12.90%	1.3	-1.2	0.7	1.8	1.1	2.3	2.5	-0.4	0.5	0.8	2.7	0.1
1988	+4.39%	1.0	0.1	0.7	-0.3	0.0	1.5	-0.5	-1.0	0.6	2.1	-0.3	0.4
1987	+7.42%	4.4	2.0	1.3	0.5	-0.3	1.4	2.1	0.4	-1.0	-4.8	-0.1	1.6
1986	+17.64%	2.2	4.0	4.9	0.1	0.5	2.5	-1.3	4.6	-0.5	-0.1	0.5	-0.8
1985	+20.47%	3.3	-2.1	4.2	0.1	3.3	1.4	0.5	1.1	-1.5	2.2	3.3	3.3
1984	+2.22%	-0.3	0.1	-0.4	-0.9	-2.0	0.6	-0.7	4.3	0.7	1.3	0.0	-0.2
1983	+3.46%	2.5	-2.7	1.3	3.9	-0.1	0.3	-1.8	-0.2	1.4	-2.3	2.8	-1.5
1982	+23.27%	-1.3	-2.1	-2.2	5.0	-2.4	-1.5	2.8	9.6	1.6	6.7	3.2	2.6
1981	-5.34%	-4.6	-1.2	3.5	-2.9	1.9	-2.4	-1.5	-1.4	-1.5	3.5	4.0	-2.4
1980	+13.65%	6.8	-2.3	-9.3	5.9	3.9	7.7	-1.4	0.8	2.0	-1.5	2.8	-1.3
1979	+39.77%	2.7	1.0	1.0	0.7	3.5	2.4	2.2	3.6	7.7	-4.5	5.1	9.3
1978	+12.78%	0.1	0.9	0.8	0.5	2.6	-0.4	4.4	2.8	0.9	0.3	-5.3	5.0

* Note:
Portofolio Returns, up to December 2007, are simulated. They have been calculated using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.

In particular, it has been used:

VTI - Vanguard Total Stock Market: simulated historical serie, up to December 2001

BIL - SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007

TLT - iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond: simulated historical serie, up to December 2002

GLD - SPDR Gold Trust: simulated historical serie, up to December 2004