Data Source: from January 1978 to September 2021

Last Update: 30 September 2021

The Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio is exposed for 25% on the Stock Market and for 25% on Commodities.

It's a Medium Risk portfolio and it can be replicated with 4 ETFs.

In the last 10 years, the portfolio obtained a 5.73% compound annual return, with a 6.07% standard deviation.

In the last 25 years, a 6.93% compound annual return, with a 6.42% standard deviation.

In 2020, the portfolio granted a 0.94% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.

Asset Allocation and ETFs

The Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio has the following asset allocation:

25% Stocks
50% Fixed Income
25% Commodities

The Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio can be replicated with the following ETFs:

Weight Ticker ETF Name Investment Themes
25.00 % VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market Equity, U.S., Large Cap
25.00 % TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Bond, U.S., Long-Term
25.00 % BIL SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill Bond, U.S., Ultra Short-Term
25.00 % GLD SPDR Gold Trust Commodity, Gold
Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

Portfolio and ETF Returns

The Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.

HARRY BROWNE PERMANENT PORTFOLIO RETURNS (%)
Last Update: 30 September 2021
Swipe left to see all data
1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y(*) 5Y(*) 10Y(*) 20Y(*) 25Y(*)
Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio -2.73 -0.13 +4.54 +2.74 +10.08 +6.72 +5.73 +7.36 +6.93
Components
VTI
Vanguard Total Stock Market
-4.46 -0.03 +8.10 +32.16 +16.05 +16.88 +16.60 +10.07 +9.79
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond
-2.91 +0.36 +7.41 -10.30 +9.25 +3.19 +4.33 +6.48 +7.06
BIL
SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill
+0.01 -0.01 -0.04 -0.06 +0.96 +0.96 +0.45 +1.15 +1.92
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust
-3.22 -0.85 +2.66 -7.28 +13.35 +5.50 +0.38 +8.97 +6.02
(*) annualized
Portfolio returns are calculated assuming:
  • a rebalancing of the components at the beginning of each year (i.e. at every January 1st)
  • the reinvestment of dividends

If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.

Historical Returns

Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio - Historical returns and stats.

HARRY BROWNE PERMANENT PORTFOLIO
Last Update: 30 September 2021
Swipe left to see all data
Period Returns
Sep 2021
Standard
Deviation *
Max
Drawdown
Months
Pos - Neg
1M
-2.73%
-2.73%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
0 - 1
3M
-0.13%
-2.73%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
2 - 1
6M
+4.54%
-2.73%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
4 - 2
YTD
-0.09%
-4.43%
Jan 2021 - Mar 2021
4 - 5
1Y
+2.74%
6.56%
-4.43%
Jan 2021 - Mar 2021
6 - 6
3Y
+10.08%
annualized
6.94%
-4.43%
Jan 2021 - Mar 2021
25 - 11
5Y
+6.72%
annualized
6.26%
-5.77%
Oct 2016 - Dec 2016
39 - 21
10Y
+5.73%
annualized
6.07%
-6.98%
Aug 2016 - Dec 2016
70 - 50
20Y
+7.36%
annualized
6.51%
-12.62%
Mar 2008 - Oct 2008
151 - 89
25Y
+6.93%
annualized
6.42%
-12.62%
Mar 2008 - Oct 2008
189 - 111
MAX
01 Jan 1978
+8.33%
annualized
7.18%
-12.62%
Mar 2008 - Oct 2008
337 - 188
* Annualized St.Dev. of monthly returns

Similar portfolios, ordered by 5 Years annualized return.

These portfolios share asset allocation strategy and/or similar asset weights. Comparing their returns and drawdowns, you can get an idea of the risk you are facing implementing one of them.

5 Years Stats
% Allocation
Portfolio Return Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm.
All Weather Portfolio with Bitcoin
Ray Dalio
+14.24% -5.32% 30 55 15 Compare
Permanent Portfolio with Bitcoin
Harry Browne
+13.42% -5.19% 25 50 25 Compare
All Weather Portfolio
Ray Dalio
+7.52% -5.71% 30 55 15 Compare
Permanent Portfolio
Harry Browne
+6.72% -5.77% 25 50 25

Best Classic Portfolios, with Medium Risk, ordered by 25 Years annualized return.

25 Years Stats
% Allocation
Portfolio Return Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm.
Couch Potato
Scott Burns
+8.32% -27.03% 50 50 0 Compare
All Weather Portfolio
Ray Dalio
+7.92% -12.19% 30 55 15 Compare
Robo Advisor 50
Betterment
+7.70% -30.72% 49.9 50.1 0 Compare
Stocks/Bonds 40/60
+7.27% -19.17% 40 60 0 Compare
Dynamic 40/60 Income
+7.22% -29.85% 40 60 0 Compare

See all portfolios

Capital Growth

Time Range:

Drawdowns

Time Range:

Rolling Returns ( more details)

Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio: annualized rolling and average returns

Swipe left to see all data
Return (*) Negative
Periods
Rolling Period Average Best Worst
1 Year
+8.64% +45.29%
Feb 1979 - Jan 1980
-9.87%
Oct 1980 - Sep 1981
12.06%
2 Years
+8.35% +30.12%
Jul 1978 - Jun 1980
-4.36%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1982
1.00%
3 Years
+7.98% +21.45%
Jan 1978 - Dec 1980
+0.68%
Oct 2012 - Sep 2015
0.00%
5 Years
+7.86% +16.49%
May 1978 - Apr 1983
+2.72%
Feb 2012 - Jan 2017
0.00%
7 Years
+7.80% +14.07%
Apr 1979 - Mar 1986
+3.19%
Nov 2011 - Oct 2018
0.00%
10 Years
+7.74% +13.00%
Feb 1978 - Jan 1988
+5.58%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2018
0.00%
15 Years
+7.64% +11.02%
Jul 1978 - Jun 1993
+5.69%
Aug 1987 - Jul 2002
0.00%
20 Years
+7.51% +10.28%
May 1978 - Apr 1998
+6.11%
Jan 1999 - Dec 2018
0.00%

* Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods

If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.

Seasonality and Yearly/Monthly Returns

Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Seasonality: in which months is it better to invest?

In the table below, the average monthly return is represented.

Below each return, it's also mentioned the probability of obtaining a positive monthly result (Win %).

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.

Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Win %
0.94
73%
0.17
57%
0.14
57%
0.91
75%
0.76
70%
0.59
57%
0.71
59%
1.05
66%
0.63
59%
0.13
58%
1.14
70%
1.12
70%
Best
Year
6.8
1980
4.0
1986
4.9
1986
5.9
1980
4.9
2003
7.7
1980
5.4
2020
9.6
1982
7.7
1979
6.7
1982
5.6
2008
9.3
1979
Worst
Year
-4.6
1981
-2.7
1983
-9.3
1980
-4.2
2004
-2.4
2013
-3.5
2013
-2.3
2002
-4.2
1998
-2.7
2021
-8.5
2008
-5.3
1978
-2.6
2009
Statistics calculated for the period Jan 1978 - Sep 2021

For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.

Monthly Returns of Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio

Swipe left to see all data
Months
Year Return Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2021
-0.09% -1.8 -2.2 -0.5 2.8 1.9 -0.1 1.9 0.7 -2.7
2020
+16.10% 3.1 -0.3 -1.3 4.8 1.3 1.3 5.4 0.1 -1.8 -1.5 1.7 2.7
2019
+16.17% 3.0 0.5 1.4 0.5 0.3 4.1 0.5 4.2 -1.1 0.9 0.1 0.9
2018
-1.76% 1.3 -2.2 0.4 -0.6 0.9 -0.5 0.0 0.8 -0.8 -2.2 1.1 0.2
2017
+10.97% 2.0 2.2 -0.3 1.1 0.7 -0.1 0.9 2.0 -0.8 0.4 1.1 1.3
2016
+5.54% 1.3 3.6 1.3 1.4 -1.1 4.2 2.0 -1.1 -0.2 -2.5 -3.3 -0.1
2015
-3.06% 3.9 -1.8 -0.6 -0.8 -0.1 -1.8 -0.1 -0.9 -0.7 2.4 -1.7 -0.7
2014
+9.40% 1.6 2.9 -0.5 0.7 0.5 2.1 -1.3 2.4 -2.6 0.7 1.4 1.2
2013
-2.08% 0.4 -0.6 1.2 -0.2 -2.4 -3.5 2.6 -0.2 0.3 1.6 -0.9 -0.2
2012
+6.41% 4.0 -0.3 -0.5 0.9 -1.2 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.2 -1.4 0.4 -0.9
2011
+11.11% -1.9 2.8 0.5 3.6 0.1 -1.7 2.7 4.2 -1.4 2.7 0.9 -1.7
2010
+13.92% -0.5 1.6 1.0 2.8 0.0 0.7 -0.1 2.6 2.6 0.7 0.3 1.5
2009
+7.85% -3.9 -2.5 2.0 0.1 3.3 -1.2 2.8 1.5 3.2 -0.3 5.5 -2.6
2008
+0.87% 1.8 0.8 -1.3 -0.7 0.1 -0.1 -0.6 -1.5 -0.6 -8.5 5.6 6.5
2007
+12.69% 1.0 1.2 -0.3 1.9 -0.1 -1.1 0.6 1.2 3.8 2.8 -0.3 1.6
2006
+10.94% 3.0 0.1 0.5 3.0 -1.1 -1.0 1.5 1.0 -0.2 1.5 3.1 -0.7
2005
+8.91% -0.6 0.9 -0.9 0.8 0.8 1.8 -0.1 1.0 1.1 -1.3 2.9 2.2
2004
+6.83% 0.1 0.7 1.8 -4.2 0.6 1.0 -0.8 2.1 1.2 1.5 2.2 0.6
2003
+13.32% 0.7 -1.0 -1.1 2.5 4.9 -1.1 -1.3 2.4 1.9 0.8 1.3 2.6
2002
+5.85% 0.6 1.2 0.3 0.4 1.4 -1.8 -2.3 2.1 0.1 0.0 1.1 2.6
2001
-0.52% 0.3 -1.7 -2.5 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.6 -0.1 0.0
2000
+2.40% -1.2 2.4 0.9 -1.5 -1.1 3.2 -0.9 2.5 -1.6 -0.7 -1.0 1.7
1999
+5.17% 1.0 -1.9 0.4 2.0 -2.4 0.6 -1.4 -0.3 3.6 1.8 0.2 1.8
1998
+10.09% 2.0 1.1 1.8 1.3 -1.6 1.9 -1.3 -4.2 4.3 1.3 2.1 1.2
1997
+7.19% -0.3 0.9 -2.3 1.3 2.6 1.0 3.1 -1.7 2.9 -1.5 0.5 0.7
1996
+5.08% 2.0 -1.0 -0.4 0.0 0.7 -0.2 -1.2 0.7 1.7 1.4 2.2 -1.0
1995
+18.11% 0.8 1.9 2.0 1.0 2.6 1.4 0.6 0.9 1.7 0.5 2.2 1.2
1994
-1.37% 0.5 -1.3 -1.5 -0.9 1.0 -0.8 1.3 1.2 -0.5 -0.3 -0.8 0.8
1993
+12.00% 0.8 0.8 1.5 0.8 2.6 1.3 2.0 0.0 -1.0 1.6 -0.9 2.1
1992
+3.57% -0.7 0.5 -1.6 0.0 1.0 0.3 3.1 -1.5 1.3 -0.8 0.9 1.1
1991
+11.72% 0.3 1.8 0.5 0.7 1.4 -0.9 1.5 0.8 1.0 0.7 -0.5 3.9
1990
+1.11% -1.5 0.0 -1.8 -1.3 3.1 -0.1 1.4 -2.2 0.6 -1.4 3.1 1.5
1989
+12.90% 1.3 -1.2 0.7 1.8 1.1 2.3 2.5 -0.4 0.5 0.8 2.7 0.1
1988
+4.39% 1.0 0.1 0.7 -0.3 0.0 1.5 -0.5 -1.0 0.6 2.1 -0.3 0.4
1987
+7.42% 4.4 2.0 1.3 0.5 -0.3 1.4 2.1 0.4 -1.0 -4.8 -0.1 1.6
1986
+17.64% 2.2 4.0 4.9 0.1 0.5 2.5 -1.3 4.6 -0.5 -0.1 0.5 -0.8
1985
+20.47% 3.3 -2.1 4.2 0.1 3.3 1.4 0.5 1.1 -1.5 2.2 3.3 3.3
1984
+2.22% -0.3 0.1 -0.4 -0.9 -2.0 0.6 -0.7 4.3 0.7 1.3 0.0 -0.2
1983
+3.46% 2.5 -2.7 1.3 3.9 -0.1 0.3 -1.8 -0.2 1.4 -2.3 2.8 -1.5
1982
+23.27% -1.3 -2.1 -2.2 5.0 -2.4 -1.5 2.8 9.6 1.6 6.7 3.2 2.6
1981
-5.34% -4.6 -1.2 3.5 -2.9 1.9 -2.4 -1.5 -1.4 -1.5 3.5 4.0 -2.4
1980
+13.65% 6.8 -2.3 -9.3 5.9 3.9 7.7 -1.4 0.8 2.0 -1.5 2.8 -1.3
1979
+39.77% 2.7 1.0 1.0 0.7 3.5 2.4 2.2 3.6 7.7 -4.5 5.1 9.3
1978
+12.78% 0.1 0.9 0.8 0.5 2.6 -0.4 4.4 2.8 0.9 0.3 -5.3 5.0

* Note:
Portofolio Returns, up to December 2007, are simulated. They have been calculated using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.

In particular, it has been used:

  • VTI - Vanguard Total Stock Market: simulated historical serie, up to December 2001
  • TLT - iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond: simulated historical serie, up to December 2002
  • BIL - SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
  • GLD - SPDR Gold Trust: simulated historical serie, up to December 2004
Share this page