When holding the Tyler Golden Butterfly To GBP Bond Hedged Portfolio, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?
Over the selected period (~76 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 31 months (from December 1967 to June 1970).
This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 32 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.
Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.
Tyler Golden Butterfly To GBP Bond Hedged Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns
Previous vs subsequent Returns
Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?
The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).
Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.
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As of Mar 31, 2026, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 5.75%.
Rolling Returns
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
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Rolling Period Analysis
By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.
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| Worst | Median | Best | Negative Periods |
|---|---|---|---|
|
-15.96%
Jun 1969 - May 1970 |
+9.97% |
+62.25%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1983 |
11.39%
103 out of 904 |
|
-20.78%
Jun 1969 - May 1970 |
+5.44% |
+56.53%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1983 |
24.34%
220 out of 904 |
|
-6.65%
Jul 1968 - Jun 1970 |
+9.71% |
+35.62%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1976 |
2.24%
20 out of 892 |
|
-11.62%
Jul 1968 - Jun 1970 |
+5.56% |
+25.34%
Feb 1982 - Jan 1984 |
17.83%
159 out of 892 |
|
+1.13%
Dec 1968 - Nov 1971 |
+9.22% |
+29.58%
Mar 1982 - Feb 1985 |
0.00%
0 out of 880 |
|
-5.91%
Dec 1968 - Nov 1971 |
+5.21% |
+23.08%
Mar 1982 - Feb 1985 |
10.57%
93 out of 880 |
|
+1.71%
Apr 2022 - Mar 2026 |
+9.01% |
+26.02%
Apr 1982 - Mar 1986 |
0.00%
0 out of 868 |
|
-3.47%
Nov 1986 - Oct 1990 |
+5.30% |
+20.51%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1986 |
5.53%
48 out of 868 |
|
+3.13%
Apr 2021 - Mar 2026 |
+9.05% |
+22.95%
Mar 1982 - Feb 1987 |
0.00%
0 out of 856 |
|
-1.84%
Apr 2021 - Mar 2026 |
+5.31% |
+17.53%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1987 |
2.80%
24 out of 856 |
|
+4.73%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2023 |
+9.28% |
+22.32%
Mar 1979 - Feb 1985 |
0.00%
0 out of 844 |
|
-3.24%
Oct 1968 - Sep 1974 |
+5.50% |
+14.23%
Feb 1981 - Jan 1987 |
2.61%
22 out of 844 |
|
+4.58%
Nov 2016 - Oct 2023 |
+9.47% |
+21.23%
Mar 1978 - Feb 1985 |
0.00%
0 out of 832 |
|
-1.92%
Oct 1968 - Sep 1975 |
+5.71% |
+13.25%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1989 |
2.64%
22 out of 832 |
|
+5.38%
Feb 2018 - Jan 2026 |
+9.52% |
+21.10%
Feb 1975 - Jan 1983 |
0.00%
0 out of 820 |
|
-0.25%
Oct 1967 - Sep 1975 |
+5.65% |
+11.66%
Aug 1979 - Jul 1987 |
0.49%
4 out of 820 |
|
+4.96%
Apr 2017 - Mar 2026 |
+9.43% |
+22.02%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1983 |
0.00%
0 out of 808 |
|
-0.39%
Feb 1969 - Jan 1978 |
+5.72% |
+10.17%
Mar 1978 - Feb 1987 |
0.62%
5 out of 808 |
|
+5.75%
Apr 2016 - Mar 2026 |
+9.48% |
+21.11%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1984 |
0.00%
0 out of 796 |
|
-0.37%
Dec 1968 - Nov 1978 |
+5.88% |
+10.55%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2000 |
0.38%
3 out of 796 |
|
+5.31%
Apr 2015 - Mar 2026 |
+9.34% |
+19.86%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1985 |
0.00%
0 out of 784 |
|
+0.02%
Aug 1968 - Jul 1979 |
+5.99% |
+11.15%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1993 |
0.00%
0 out of 784 |
|
+5.96%
Apr 2014 - Mar 2026 |
+9.39% |
+20.71%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1986 |
0.00%
0 out of 772 |
|
+0.31%
Feb 1969 - Jan 1981 |
+5.90% |
+10.47%
Feb 1982 - Jan 1994 |
0.00%
0 out of 772 |
|
+5.56%
Apr 2013 - Mar 2026 |
+9.21% |
+19.57%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1987 |
0.00%
0 out of 760 |
|
+0.39%
Oct 1968 - Sep 1981 |
+5.95% |
+9.89%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1995 |
0.00%
0 out of 760 |
|
+5.91%
Apr 2012 - Mar 2026 |
+9.50% |
+18.69%
Apr 1972 - Mar 1986 |
0.00%
0 out of 748 |
|
+0.35%
Jul 1968 - Jun 1982 |
+5.97% |
+9.97%
Jun 1982 - May 1996 |
0.00%
0 out of 748 |
|
+6.28%
Apr 2011 - Mar 2026 |
+9.55% |
+18.53%
Nov 1971 - Oct 1986 |
0.00%
0 out of 736 |
|
+1.37%
Aug 1967 - Jul 1982 |
+5.99% |
+9.85%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1997 |
0.00%
0 out of 736 |
|
+6.59%
Apr 2010 - Mar 2026 |
+9.54% |
+18.44%
Jul 1970 - Jun 1986 |
0.00%
0 out of 724 |
|
+1.95%
Apr 1966 - Mar 1982 |
+5.90% |
+9.83%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1998 |
0.00%
0 out of 724 |
|
+7.30%
Apr 2009 - Mar 2026 |
+9.69% |
+17.95%
Jul 1970 - Jun 1987 |
0.00%
0 out of 712 |
|
+1.99%
Jun 1965 - May 1982 |
+5.83% |
+9.53%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1999 |
0.00%
0 out of 712 |
|
+7.25%
Apr 2008 - Mar 2026 |
+9.81% |
+16.80%
Jul 1970 - Jun 1988 |
0.00%
0 out of 700 |
|
+2.11%
Jul 1964 - Jun 1982 |
+5.76% |
+9.44%
Jul 1982 - Jun 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 700 |
|
+7.27%
Apr 2007 - Mar 2026 |
+9.89% |
+17.06%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1993 |
0.00%
0 out of 688 |
|
+2.26%
Apr 1961 - Mar 1980 |
+5.82% |
+9.34%
Jul 1982 - Jun 2001 |
0.00%
0 out of 688 |
|
+6.90%
Apr 2006 - Mar 2026 |
+10.11% |
+16.25%
Sep 1966 - Aug 1986 |
0.00%
0 out of 676 |
|
+2.29%
Apr 1962 - Mar 1982 |
+5.82% |
+9.12%
Jun 1982 - May 2002 |
0.00%
0 out of 676 |
|
+7.12%
Feb 2001 - Jan 2026 |
+11.29% |
+15.37%
Jul 1970 - Jun 1995 |
0.00%
0 out of 616 |
|
+2.98%
Jun 1957 - May 1982 |
+6.07% |
+8.21%
Jun 1982 - May 2007 |
0.00%
0 out of 616 |
|
+7.37%
Apr 1996 - Mar 2026 |
+12.13% |
+14.47%
Sep 1970 - Aug 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 556 |
|
+2.92%
Feb 1951 - Jan 1981 |
+5.81% |
+8.11%
Jul 1982 - Jun 2012 |
0.00%
0 out of 556 |
Tyler Golden Butterfly To GBP Bond Hedged Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns

