Last Update: 28 February 2023

Implementing the Golden Butterfly Portfolio, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to obtain a positive return?

Considering all 7 years rolling periods, you would have obtained a positive returns 100.00% of times

Considering all 2 years rolling periods, you would have obtained a positive returns 91.87% of times

All the returns are calculated over the available historical serie, starting from January 1927 until February 2023.

In order to have complete information about the portfolio, please refer to the Golden Butterfly Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns page.

Rolling Returns

Golden Butterfly Portfolio: annualized rolling and average returns

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Rolling
Period
Return (*) Negative
Periods
Average (%) Best (%) Worst (%)
1 Year
8.89 72.34
Jul 1932 - Jun 1933
-32.17
Jul 1931 - Jun 1932
17.06%
2 Years
8.68 35.24
Jul 1932 - Jun 1934
-24.76
Jun 1930 - May 1932
8.13%
3 Years
8.58 24.69
Jul 1932 - Jun 1935
-17.91
Jul 1929 - Jun 1932
4.47%
4 Years
8.57 24.33
Jul 1932 - Jun 1936
-10.94
Jun 1928 - May 1932
3.70%
5 Years
8.62 20.88
Jun 1932 - May 1937
-6.33
Jun 1927 - May 1932
2.92%
6 Years
8.72 20.45
Oct 1974 - Sep 1980
-1.38
Jan 1927 - Dec 1932
0.37%
7 Years
8.76 17.54
Jun 1976 - May 1983
1.97
Apr 1928 - Mar 1935
0.00%
8 Years
8.79 17.57
Apr 1978 - Mar 1986
1.93
Apr 1930 - Mar 1938
0.00%
9 Years
8.82 17.76
Oct 1974 - Sep 1983
1.96
Apr 1929 - Mar 1938
0.00%
10 Years
8.83 17.05
Sep 1976 - Aug 1986
2.31
Sep 1929 - Aug 1939
0.00%
11 Years
8.85 16.70
Sep 1976 - Aug 1987
2.18
Sep 1929 - Aug 1940
0.00%
12 Years
8.88 17.08
Oct 1974 - Sep 1986
2.49
May 1930 - Apr 1942
0.00%
13 Years
8.91 16.80
Oct 1974 - Sep 1987
2.08
Sep 1929 - Aug 1942
0.00%
14 Years
8.93 15.43
Oct 1974 - Sep 1988
2.96
May 1928 - Apr 1942
0.00%
15 Years
8.96 15.38
Oct 1974 - Sep 1989
3.74
Oct 1927 - Sep 1942
0.00%
20 Years
9.08 13.89
Jul 1970 - Jun 1990
4.53
Sep 1929 - Aug 1949
0.00%
30 Years
9.31 12.46
Jul 1970 - Jun 2000
5.91
Oct 1929 - Sep 1959
0.00%
(*) Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods

Annualized Rolling Returns - 1 Year (12 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+8.89% +72.34%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1933
-32.17%
Jul 1931 - Jun 1932
17.06%
195 out of 1143
1 Year Annualized Rolling Returns over time
1 Year Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 2 Years (24 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+8.68% +35.24%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1934
-24.76%
Jun 1930 - May 1932
8.13%
92 out of 1131
2 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
2 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 3 Years (36 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+8.58% +24.69%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1935
-17.91%
Jul 1929 - Jun 1932
4.47%
50 out of 1119
3 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
3 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 4 Years (48 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+8.57% +24.33%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1936
-10.94%
Jun 1928 - May 1932
3.70%
41 out of 1107
4 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
4 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 5 Years (60 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+8.62% +20.88%
Jun 1932 - May 1937
-6.33%
Jun 1927 - May 1932
2.92%
32 out of 1095
5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 6 Years (72 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+8.72% +20.45%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1980
-1.38%
Jan 1927 - Dec 1932
0.37%
4 out of 1083
6 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
6 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 7 Years (84 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+8.76% +17.54%
Jun 1976 - May 1983
+1.97%
Apr 1928 - Mar 1935
0.00%
0 out of 1071
7 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
7 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 8 Years (96 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+8.79% +17.57%
Apr 1978 - Mar 1986
+1.93%
Apr 1930 - Mar 1938
0.00%
0 out of 1059
8 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
8 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 9 Years (108 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+8.82% +17.76%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1983
+1.96%
Apr 1929 - Mar 1938
0.00%
0 out of 1047
9 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
9 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 10 Years (120 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+8.83% +17.05%
Sep 1976 - Aug 1986
+2.31%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1939
0.00%
0 out of 1035
10 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
10 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 11 Years (132 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+8.85% +16.70%
Sep 1976 - Aug 1987
+2.18%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1940
0.00%
0 out of 1023
11 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
11 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 12 Years (144 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+8.88% +17.08%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1986
+2.49%
May 1930 - Apr 1942
0.00%
0 out of 1011
12 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
12 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 13 Years (156 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+8.91% +16.80%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1987
+2.08%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1942
0.00%
0 out of 999
13 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
13 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 14 Years (168 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+8.93% +15.43%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1988
+2.96%
May 1928 - Apr 1942
0.00%
0 out of 987
14 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
14 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 15 Years (180 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+8.96% +15.38%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1989
+3.74%
Oct 1927 - Sep 1942
0.00%
0 out of 975
15 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
15 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 20 Years (240 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+9.08% +13.89%
Jul 1970 - Jun 1990
+4.53%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1949
0.00%
0 out of 915
20 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
20 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 30 Years (360 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+9.31% +12.46%
Jul 1970 - Jun 2000
+5.91%
Oct 1929 - Sep 1959
0.00%
0 out of 795
30 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
30 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

In order to have complete information about the portfolio, please refer to the Golden Butterfly Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns page.

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