Last Update: 30 April 2022

Implementing the Golden Butterfly Portfolio, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to obtain a positive return?

Considering all 3 years rolling periods, you would have obtained a positive returns 100.00% of times

Considering all 1 year rolling periods, you would have obtained a positive returns 90.43% of times

All the returns are calculated over the available historical serie, starting from January 1977 until April 2022.

In order to have complete information about the portfolio, please refer to the Golden Butterfly Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns page.

Rolling Returns

Golden Butterfly Portfolio: annualized rolling and average returns

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Rolling
Period
Return (*) Negative
Periods
Average (%) Best (%) Worst (%)
1 Year
10.42 49.49
Jul 1982 - Jun 1983
-14.81
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009
9.57%
2 Years
10.17 29.93
Dec 1978 - Nov 1980
-3.82
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009
1.73%
3 Years
9.99 23.04
Oct 1977 - Sep 1980
0.58
Mar 2006 - Feb 2009
0.00%
4 Years
9.80 22.68
Jul 1982 - Jun 1986
3.25
Jan 2015 - Dec 2018
0.00%
5 Years
9.74 20.44
Jul 1982 - Jun 1987
3.16
Apr 1998 - Mar 2003
0.00%
6 Years
9.72 18.22
Jun 1977 - May 1983
4.71
Jan 2013 - Dec 2018
0.00%
7 Years
9.63 17.47
Apr 1979 - Mar 1986
5.12
Apr 2013 - Mar 2020
0.00%
8 Years
9.63 17.57
Apr 1978 - Mar 1986
5.33
Apr 2012 - Mar 2020
0.00%
9 Years
9.60 17.34
Mar 1978 - Feb 1987
5.96
Mar 2000 - Feb 2009
0.00%
10 Years
9.55 16.77
Sep 1977 - Aug 1987
6.16
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009
0.00%
11 Years
9.49 15.19
Dec 1978 - Nov 1989
5.70
Mar 1998 - Feb 2009
0.00%
12 Years
9.45 14.86
Aug 1977 - Jul 1989
6.45
Jan 2007 - Dec 2018
0.00%
13 Years
9.40 14.11
Jan 1977 - Dec 1989
6.64
Apr 2007 - Mar 2020
0.00%
14 Years
9.37 13.76
Mar 1978 - Feb 1992
6.76
Apr 2006 - Mar 2020
0.00%
15 Years
9.37 13.54
Dec 1978 - Nov 1993
6.99
May 2007 - Apr 2022
0.00%
16 Years
9.36 13.57
Nov 1977 - Oct 1993
7.05
May 2006 - Apr 2022
0.00%
17 Years
9.34 13.26
Feb 1977 - Jan 1994
7.35
Feb 1999 - Jan 2016
0.00%
18 Years
9.32 13.07
Feb 1978 - Jan 1996
7.30
Jan 2001 - Dec 2018
0.00%
19 Years
9.31 12.86
Feb 1977 - Jan 1996
7.28
Jan 2000 - Dec 2018
0.00%
20 Years
9.27 12.90
Apr 1978 - Mar 1998
7.13
Jan 1999 - Dec 2018
0.00%
(*) Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods

Annualized Rolling Returns - 1 Year (12 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+10.42% +49.49%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1983
-14.81%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009
9.57%
51 out of 533
1 Year Annualized Rolling Returns over time
1 Year Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 2 Years (24 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+10.17% +29.93%
Dec 1978 - Nov 1980
-3.82%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009
1.73%
9 out of 521
2 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
2 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 3 Years (36 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+9.99% +23.04%
Oct 1977 - Sep 1980
+0.58%
Mar 2006 - Feb 2009
0.00%
0 out of 509
3 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
3 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 4 Years (48 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+9.80% +22.68%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1986
+3.25%
Jan 2015 - Dec 2018
0.00%
0 out of 497
4 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
4 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 5 Years (60 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+9.74% +20.44%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1987
+3.16%
Apr 1998 - Mar 2003
0.00%
0 out of 485
5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 6 Years (72 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+9.72% +18.22%
Jun 1977 - May 1983
+4.71%
Jan 2013 - Dec 2018
0.00%
0 out of 473
6 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
6 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 7 Years (84 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+9.63% +17.47%
Apr 1979 - Mar 1986
+5.12%
Apr 2013 - Mar 2020
0.00%
0 out of 461
7 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
7 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 8 Years (96 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+9.63% +17.57%
Apr 1978 - Mar 1986
+5.33%
Apr 2012 - Mar 2020
0.00%
0 out of 449
8 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
8 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 9 Years (108 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+9.60% +17.34%
Mar 1978 - Feb 1987
+5.96%
Mar 2000 - Feb 2009
0.00%
0 out of 437
9 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
9 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 10 Years (120 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+9.55% +16.77%
Sep 1977 - Aug 1987
+6.16%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009
0.00%
0 out of 425
10 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
10 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 11 Years (132 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+9.49% +15.19%
Dec 1978 - Nov 1989
+5.70%
Mar 1998 - Feb 2009
0.00%
0 out of 413
11 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
11 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 12 Years (144 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+9.45% +14.86%
Aug 1977 - Jul 1989
+6.45%
Jan 2007 - Dec 2018
0.00%
0 out of 401
12 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
12 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 13 Years (156 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+9.40% +14.11%
Jan 1977 - Dec 1989
+6.64%
Apr 2007 - Mar 2020
0.00%
0 out of 389
13 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
13 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 14 Years (168 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+9.37% +13.76%
Mar 1978 - Feb 1992
+6.76%
Apr 2006 - Mar 2020
0.00%
0 out of 377
14 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
14 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 15 Years (180 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+9.37% +13.54%
Dec 1978 - Nov 1993
+6.99%
May 2007 - Apr 2022
0.00%
0 out of 365
15 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
15 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 16 Years (192 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+9.36% +13.57%
Nov 1977 - Oct 1993
+7.05%
May 2006 - Apr 2022
0.00%
0 out of 353
16 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
16 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 17 Years (204 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+9.34% +13.26%
Feb 1977 - Jan 1994
+7.35%
Feb 1999 - Jan 2016
0.00%
0 out of 341
17 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
17 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 18 Years (216 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+9.32% +13.07%
Feb 1978 - Jan 1996
+7.30%
Jan 2001 - Dec 2018
0.00%
0 out of 329
18 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
18 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 19 Years (228 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+9.31% +12.86%
Feb 1977 - Jan 1996
+7.28%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2018
0.00%
0 out of 317
19 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
19 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 20 Years (240 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+9.27% +12.90%
Apr 1978 - Mar 1998
+7.13%
Jan 1999 - Dec 2018
0.00%
0 out of 305
20 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
20 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

In order to have complete information about the portfolio, please refer to the Golden Butterfly Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns page.

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