The Tyler Golden Butterfly Portfolio can be implemented with 5 ETFs. This portfolio has a high risk, indicating it can undergo considerable value changes. It is appropriate for investors with a high risk tolerance who are aiming for higher returns and can handle notable drawdowns.

The portfolio asset allocation is: 40% on the Stock Market, 40% on Fixed Income, 20% on Commodities. In general, bonds are useful for mitigating overall portfolio risk, especially if they are issued by national entities or highly reliable companies. This portfolio has a 40% allocation to bonds, leading to its classification as high risk.

As of May 2026, in the previous 30 Years, the Tyler Golden Butterfly Portfolio obtained a 8.05% compound annual return, with a 7.97% standard deviation. It suffered a maximum drawdown of -17.79% that required 30 months to be recovered.

Disclaimer: The simulations on this website are provided in good faith but should NOT be taken as investment advice. We are not liable for any errors or actions based on this information. The authors of the website are not affiliated with the portfolio creators, who are the sole owners of their intellectual property. The translation of asset allocations into ETFs is based on the interpretation of LazyPortfolioETF.com and may not exactly reflect the original intent of the portfolio creators. Content is for informational, educational, illustrative, and entertainment purposes only.
Book Cover: Mastering ETF Investing
LazyPortfolioETF.com Logo
Your practical guide to Building Wealth.
Master ETF Investing & maximize profits with Lazy Portfolios & Passive Strategies.
English Book Italian Book

Table of contents

Asset Allocation and ETFs

To effectively implement the asset allocation of the Tyler Golden Butterfly Portfolio, investors can utilize the following selection of ETFs. These ETFs have been chosen specifically for their ability to represent each asset class within the portfolio and facilitate ease of management.

40% Stocks
40% Fixed Income
20% Commodities

Loading data
Please wait
Weight
(%)		 ETF
Ticker		 ETF
Currency		 ETF Name Investment Themes (Orig.Currency)
20.00
IJS
USD iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value Equity, U.S., Small Cap, Value (USD)
20.00
VTI
USD Vanguard Total Stock Market Equity, U.S., Large Cap (USD)
20.00
TLT
USD iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Bond, U.S., Long-Term (USD)
20.00
SHY
USD iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond Bond, U.S., Short Term (USD)
20.00
GLD
USD SPDR Gold Trust Commodity, Gold (USD)

Portfolio and ETF Returns as of May 31, 2026

TYLER GOLDEN BUTTERFLY PORTFOLIO
Capital Growth
Inflation Adj:
Swipe left to see all data
Swipe left to see all data
Swipe left to see all data
Show Live Returns: June 2026
Chg (%) Return (%) Return (%) as of May 31, 2026
1 Day Time ET(*) Jun 2026 YTD
(5M) 		1M 6M 1Y 5Y 10Y 30Y MAX
(~99Y)
Investment Return 0.41 -1.06 6.45 1.08 6.76 22.93 7.00 8.26 8.05 8.54
US Inflation Adjusted Return 3.91 0.60 3.90 17.99 2.42 4.72 5.35 5.38
Component Returns
IJS
USD iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value 0.97 Jun 26 2026 5.19 15.13 1.08 16.03 38.64 5.87 10.15 10.01 12.82
VTI
USD Vanguard Total Stock Market -0.20 Jun 26 2026 -2.49 11.46 5.18 11.44 30.03 12.88 15.11 10.28 10.35
TLT
USD iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond 0.01 Jun 26 2026 2.27 -0.14 0.53 -2.79 3.91 -6.11 -1.42 4.71 4.86
SHY
USD iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond 0.12 Jun 26 2026 0.16 0.54 0.08 0.83 3.32 1.69 1.66 2.97 4.25
GLD
USD SPDR Gold Trust 1.13 Jun 26 2026 -10.43 5.25 -1.54 7.54 37.39 18.52 13.65 8.19 5.48
Returns over 1 year are annualized
(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)
The live monthly return is calculated by assuming, for each asset, the weight defined by the base asset allocation.
US Inflation is updated to May 2026. Inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 4.18% , 5Y: 4.47% , 10Y: 3.38% , 30Y: 2.56%
Swipe left to see all data

Loading data
Please wait

Loading data
Please wait

Loading data
Please wait

Loading data
Please wait

Loading data
Please wait

Learn about historical correlations here: see how the main asset classes relate to each other.

Portfolio Metrics as of May 31, 2026

TYLER GOLDEN BUTTERFLY PORTFOLIO
Advanced Metrics
1 January 1927 - 31 May 2026 (~99 years)
Swipe left to see all data
Metrics as of May 31, 2026
YTD
(5M) 		1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
(~99Y)
Investment Return (%)
6.45 1.08 -0.78 6.76 22.93 14.94 7.00 8.26 7.81 8.05 8.54
Growth of 1$ 1.06 1.01 0.99 1.07 1.23 1.52 1.40 2.21 4.50 10.20 3.5K
Infl. Adjusted Return (%)
3.91 0.60 -2.72 3.90 17.99 11.30 2.42 4.72 5.12 5.35 5.38
US Inflation (%) 2.44 0.47 1.99 2.75 4.18 3.27 4.47 3.38 2.57 2.56 3.00
Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized.
DRAWDOWN
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
 Current 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -0.78 -5.05 -8.08 -17.79 -17.79 -17.79 -17.79 -48.31
Start to Recovery (# months)
3* 3* 5 30 30 30 30 70
Start (yyyy mm) 2026 03 2023 08 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 1929 09
Start to Bottom (# months) 1 3 9 9 9 9 33
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2026 03 2023 10 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 1932 05
Bottom to End (# months) 2 2 21 21 21 21 37
End (yyyy mm) - 2023 12 2024 06 2024 06 2024 06 2024 06 1935 06
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same		 -3.42
same
same
same
same		 -23.45
Start to Recovery (# months)
7 71
Start (yyyy mm) 2026 03 2024 12 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 1937 03
Start to Bottom (# months) 1 1 9 9 9 9 13
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2026 03 2024 12 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 1938 03
Bottom to End (# months) 2 6 21 21 21 21 58
End (yyyy mm) - 2025 06 2024 06 2024 06 2024 06 2024 06 1943 01
Longest negative period (# months)
3* 6 35 39 39 39 74
Start (yyyy mm) 2026 03 2024 12 2021 06 2020 08 2020 08 2020 08 1927 01
End (yyyy mm) 2026 05 2025 05 2024 04 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 1933 02
Annualized Return (%) -3.09 -0.45 -0.13 -0.11 -0.11 -0.11 -0.28
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
Adjusting for units held makes the drawdown reflect real performance, just like in the no-cash-flow case.
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -2.72 -5.86 -8.95 -23.47 -23.47 -23.47 -23.47 -34.73
Start to Recovery (# months)
3* 3* 5 51 51 51 51 44
Start (yyyy mm) 2026 03 2023 08 2021 06 2021 06 2021 06 2021 06 1929 09
Start to Bottom (# months) 1 3 16 16 16 16 33
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2026 03 2023 10 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 1932 05
Bottom to End (# months) 2 2 35 35 35 35 11
End (yyyy mm) - 2023 12 2025 08 2025 08 2025 08 2025 08 1933 04
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same		 -3.80
same
same
same
same		 -27.60
Start to Recovery (# months)
7 96
Start (yyyy mm) 2026 03 2024 12 2021 06 2021 06 2021 06 2021 06 1946 06
Start to Bottom (# months) 1 1 16 16 16 16 21
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2026 03 2024 12 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 1948 02
Bottom to End (# months) 2 6 35 35 35 35 75
End (yyyy mm) - 2025 06 2025 08 2025 08 2025 08 2025 08 1954 05
Longest negative period (# months)
4* 7 50 71 71 71 151
Start (yyyy mm) 2026 02 2024 10 2021 06 2017 12 2017 12 2017 12 1936 12
End (yyyy mm) 2026 05 2025 04 2025 07 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 1949 06
Annualized Return (%) -0.03 -1.25 -0.56 -0.18 -0.18 -0.18 -0.01
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
Adjusting for units held makes the drawdown reflect real performance, just like in the no-cash-flow case.
RISK INDICATORS
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Standard Deviation (%) 8.45 9.26 10.20 8.82 8.34 7.97 8.81
Sharpe Ratio 2.25 1.11 0.35 0.69 0.75 0.73 0.59
Sortino Ratio 2.66 1.46 0.48 0.94 1.02 0.98 0.82
Ulcer Index 1.51 2.21 6.44 4.76 4.11 3.59 6.87
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 2.71 1.61 0.69 0.94 0.94 1.01 0.97
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 4.54 1.85 0.39 0.46 0.44 0.45 0.18
Positive Months (%)
91.66 72.22 61.66 68.33 65.41 66.11 65.29
Positive Months 11 26 37 82 157 238 779
Negative Months 1 10 23 38 83 122 414
LONG TERM RETURNS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 8.26 9.07 10.44 17.05
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 4.68 4.68 2.31
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 4.72 7.18 7.89 9.91
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 1.87 1.87 0.35
TIMEFRAMES
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
 1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
··· As of May 2026 - Over the previous 30Y
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 26.55 17.94 13.45 10.44 8.54 8.05
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -14.81 0.58 3.16 4.68 6.85
Positive Periods (%) 88.8 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 24.39 15.18 11.16 7.89 6.21 5.35
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -20.83 -4.79 -0.14 1.87 4.16
Positive Periods (%) 84.2 90.4 99.6 100.0 100.0 100.0
95% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative
3.11 4.53 5.22 5.99 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
95% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%) 4.06 6.18 7.56 10.44 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
99% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative
4.68 7.24 9.06 14.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
99% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%) 5.67 8.97 11.50 14.58 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Short term VaRs: analytical | 1+ year VaRs: historical data
Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) 87.72 28.85 18.34 11.30 7.36 6.67
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) --- --- --- 2.05 4.60 5.27
% based on initial capital, inflation-adj. monthly withdrawals afterwards | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
··· All available data (Jan 1927 - May 2026)
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 72.34 24.69 20.88 17.05 13.89 12.46
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -32.17 -17.91 -6.33 2.31 4.53 5.91
Positive Periods (%) 83.2 95.6 97.1 100.0 100.0 100.0
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 84.55 24.38 19.68 9.91 7.73 7.37
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -24.69 -11.40 -4.33 0.35 2.36 3.19
Positive Periods (%) 74.4 87.9 95.8 100.0 100.0 100.0
95% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative
3.47 5.09 5.94 7.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
95% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%) 4.52 6.92 8.53 14.39 13.89 4.75 0.00 0.00 0.00
99% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative
5.20 8.09 10.18 18.36 28.78 14.21 0.00 0.00 0.00
99% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%) 6.30 10.00 12.89 24.33 36.17 20.37 0.00 0.00 0.00
Short term VaRs: analytical | 1+ year VaRs: historical data
Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) 84.48 26.30 16.08 8.78 5.31 4.23
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) --- --- --- 0.35 1.98 2.60
% based on initial capital, inflation-adj. monthly withdrawals afterwards | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
  • Annualized Portfolio Return: the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio. When cashflows are involved, it is calculated using the Money-Weighted Rate of Return (MWRR), based on the Modified Dietz formula.
  • Deepest/Longest Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. The deepest (or maximum) drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained. The longest drawdown is the period observed from a peak to the subsequent peak with the greatest duration. When cashflows are involved, portfolio values are normalized by the invested capital (i.e. owned quotes) at each time step: this isolates the effect of market performance from capital contributions, avoiding misleading drawdowns caused by large inflows that artificially lift portfolio value and, as a result, the drawdowns match the ones without cash flows.
  • Longest negative period: it's the maximum period for which an overall negative return has been observed.
  • Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean.
  • Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return.
  • Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation).
  • Ulcer Index: it's a measure of downside risk that quantifies the depth and duration of drawdowns in an investment portfolio.
  • Best/Worst 10Y returns: the best and the worst 10-year return over a time frame.
  • Rolling Returns: N-year returns over a time frame, calculated over all the available data source (best, worst, % of positive returns). Each rolling period, longer than the longest negative period, yielded a non-negative minimum return.
  • Value at Risk (VaR): it's an evaluation of a cumulative worst-case loss (in absolute value), associated with a probability (95%-99%) and a time horizon. For short term, it's calculated based on the expected return and standard deviation, assuming a normal distribution of monthly returns. For long term is retrieved by the historical rolling return data.
  • Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR): it represents the average expected loss if that worst-case threshold (95%-99%) is ever crossed.
  • Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money in any case (money amount withdrawal).
    For instance: Your initial invested capital is 100.000$; withdrawal rate (annualized) is 4%. This means that, in the first month, you will withdraw 100.000 * 4% * 1/12 = 333.33$. The second month, you’ll withdraw 333.33$ plus the inflation monthly rate. You’ll continue adjusting your withdraw monthly for inflation.
  • Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too.
Book Cover: Mastering ETF Investing
LazyPortfolioETF.com Logo
Your practical guide to Building Wealth.
Master ETF Investing & maximize profits with Lazy Portfolios & Passive Strategies.
English Book Italian Book

Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

TYLER GOLDEN BUTTERFLY PORTFOLIO
Drawdown periods
Inflation Adj:
Swipe left to see all data
Swipe left to see all data

Rolling Return Analysis

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

TYLER GOLDEN BUTTERFLY PORTFOLIO
Annualized Rolling Returns — Over Time & Distribution

Holding Periods and Returns

Holding periods are based on rolling periods: each rolling window represents the return an investor would have achieved by holding the investment for a fixed period (e.g., 10, 20, or 30 years) starting from different dates.

TYLER GOLDEN BUTTERFLY PORTFOLIO
Annualized Rolling Returns
Inflation Adj:
Percentiles: – Changes pending. Click 'Update' to refresh

Loading data
Please wait

Loading data
Please wait

Loading data
Please wait

Loading data
Please wait

Time to Target

What it shows: Months to reach your target capital from each historical entry point, accounting for your initial investment and periodic contributions.

TYLER GOLDEN BUTTERFLY PORTFOLIO
Time to reach your Target Capital

Monthly Returns and Seasonality

This section provides a visual/tabular representation of the performance variability in the Tyler Golden Butterfly Portfolio over time. It illustrates the distribution of monthly returns, showcasing the range and frequency of positive and negative returns.

TYLER GOLDEN BUTTERFLY PORTFOLIO
Monthly Returns Distribution

Loading data
Please wait
Monthly Seasonality Analysis
99 full years are available for analysis

Returns, up to December 2004, have been derived using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.

You can find additional information on extended Data Sources here.

In particular, the series derived from equivalent datasets are:

  • iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value (IJS), up to December 2000
  • Vanguard Total Stock Market (VTI), up to December 2001
  • iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT), up to December 2002
  • iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond (SHY), up to December 2002
  • SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), up to December 2004

Portfolio efficiency

Compare Tyler Golden Butterfly Portfolio performance and efficiency against top portfolios to identify strengths and areas for improvement.


Loading data
Please wait
Swipe left to see all data
Allocation
Stocks Bonds Comm Ann.
Return▾		 Standard
Deviation		 Ulcer
Index		 Deepest
Drawdown		 Longest
Drawdown		 Longest
Neg.Period		 Avg
Rank

Loading data
Please wait
Swipe left to see all data
Allocation
Stocks Bonds Comm Ann.
Return▾		 Standard
Deviation		 Ulcer
Index		 Deepest
Drawdown		 Longest
Drawdown		 Longest
Neg.Period		 Avg
Rank

Loading data
Please wait
Swipe left to see all data
Allocation
Stocks Bonds Comm Ann.
Return▾		 Standard
Deviation		 Ulcer
Index		 Deepest
Drawdown		 Longest
Drawdown		 Longest
Neg.Period		 Avg
Rank
Select Portfolios

Loading data
Please wait
Compare
Book Cover: Mastering ETF Investing
LazyPortfolioETF.com Logo
Your practical guide to Building Wealth.
Master ETF Investing & maximize profits with Lazy Portfolios & Passive Strategies.
English Book Italian Book