Consolidated Returns as of 31 March 2024
Holding the Mebane Faber GAA Global Asset Allocation Portfolio, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to obtain a positive return?
Considering all the available data source (~39 years), the longest period with a negative return lasted 45 months (from June 2005 to February 2009).
This means that every rolling period of 46 months or above has always granted a positive return.
To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the Mebane Faber GAA Global Asset Allocation Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns page.
Previous vs subsequent Returns
Considering all 10-year rolling periods, is there a relationship between past and future returns, at a given date?
In the following chart, we show how past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis) are related.
Neighboring data is aggregated and occurrences are indicated. It is possible to zoom by clicking or drawing the desired area
The annualized return of the last 10 years has been 4.83% (updated at Mar 31, 2024).
Rolling Returns
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
Annualized Rolling Returns - 1 Year (12 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +9.06% |
+40.72%
May 1985 - Apr 1986 |
-23.45%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009 |
13.04%
60 out of 460 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +6.47% |
+38.52%
May 1985 - Apr 1986 |
-24.44%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2022 |
19.35%
89 out of 460 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 2 Years (24 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +8.95% |
+29.82%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1987 |
-9.38%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009 |
8.71%
39 out of 448 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +5.88% |
+26.59%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1987 |
-12.93%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2023 |
13.39%
60 out of 448 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 3 Years (36 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +8.60% |
+20.88%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1988 |
-3.09%
Mar 2006 - Feb 2009 |
2.29%
10 out of 436 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +5.82% |
+17.35%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1988 |
-5.92%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2023 |
8.03%
35 out of 436 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 4 Years (48 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +8.50% |
+18.24%
Oct 1985 - Sep 1989 |
+0.11%
Mar 2005 - Feb 2009 |
0.00%
0 out of 424 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +5.61% |
+14.13%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1988 |
-3.60%
Nov 2019 - Oct 2023 |
4.95%
21 out of 424 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 5 Years (60 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +7.93% |
+18.63%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1989 |
+1.83%
Mar 2004 - Feb 2009 |
0.00%
0 out of 412 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +5.24% |
+14.44%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1989 |
-1.37%
Oct 2017 - Sep 2022 |
2.91%
12 out of 412 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 6 Years (72 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +7.69% |
+15.73%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1991 |
+2.66%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 400 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +5.13% |
+11.24%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1991 |
-1.05%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2023 |
1.00%
4 out of 400 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 7 Years (84 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +7.93% |
+16.25%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1991 |
+3.59%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 388 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +5.31% |
+11.85%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1991 |
+0.07%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 388 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 8 Years (96 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +7.92% |
+14.91%
May 1985 - Apr 1993 |
+3.22%
Oct 2014 - Sep 2022 |
0.00%
0 out of 376 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +5.34% |
+10.74%
May 1985 - Apr 1993 |
+0.39%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2022 |
0.00%
0 out of 376 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 9 Years (108 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +8.14% |
+15.07%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1993 |
+3.31%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 364 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +5.55% |
+10.97%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1993 |
+0.39%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 364 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 10 Years (120 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +8.05% |
+13.18%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1994 |
+3.74%
Nov 2013 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 352 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +5.50% |
+9.25%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1994 |
+0.93%
Nov 2013 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 352 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 11 Years (132 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +8.05% |
+13.84%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1995 |
+3.94%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 340 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +5.65% |
+10.00%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1995 |
+1.30%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 340 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 12 Years (144 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +8.17% |
+13.47%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1996 |
+4.41%
Nov 2011 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 328 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +5.58% |
+9.65%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1996 |
+1.79%
Nov 2011 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 328 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 13 Years (156 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +7.83% |
+12.99%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1998 |
+4.64%
Nov 2010 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 316 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +5.39% |
+9.39%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1998 |
+1.95%
Nov 2010 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 316 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 14 Years (168 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +7.68% |
+12.77%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1998 |
+5.35%
Nov 2009 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 304 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +5.25% |
+9.25%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1998 |
+2.74%
Nov 2009 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 304 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 15 Years (180 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +7.80% |
+12.72%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1999 |
+4.44%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2022 |
0.00%
0 out of 292 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +5.26% |
+9.25%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1999 |
+2.01%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2022 |
0.00%
0 out of 292 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 16 Years (192 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +7.73% |
+12.23%
Jan 1985 - Dec 2000 |
+4.38%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 280 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +5.25% |
+8.75%
Jan 1985 - Dec 2000 |
+1.90%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 280 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 17 Years (204 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +7.77% |
+11.33%
Jan 1985 - Dec 2001 |
+4.91%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 268 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +5.35% |
+7.98%
Jan 1985 - Dec 2001 |
+2.35%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 268 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 18 Years (216 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +7.90% |
+10.85%
Jan 1985 - Dec 2002 |
+5.37%
Oct 2005 - Sep 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 256 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +5.45% |
+7.55%
Jan 1985 - Dec 2002 |
+2.85%
Oct 2005 - Sep 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 256 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 19 Years (228 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +7.97% |
+11.31%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2004 |
+5.56%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 244 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +5.46% |
+8.06%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2004 |
+2.94%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 244 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 20 Years (240 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +7.93% |
+11.32%
Jan 1985 - Dec 2004 |
+5.91%
Nov 2003 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 232 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +5.30% |
+8.04%
Jan 1985 - Dec 2004 |
+3.25%
Nov 2003 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 232 |
To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the Mebane Faber GAA Global Asset Allocation Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns page.