Last Update: 31 March 2023

Implementing the Frank Armstrong Ideal Index Portfolio, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to obtain a positive return?

Considering all 6 years rolling periods, you would have obtained a positive returns 100.00% of times

Considering all 2 years rolling periods, you would have obtained a positive returns 90.42% of times

All the returns are calculated over the available historical serie, starting from January 1970 until March 2023.

In order to have complete information about the portfolio, please refer to the Frank Armstrong Ideal Index Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns page.

Rolling Returns

Frank Armstrong Ideal Index Portfolio: annualized rolling and average returns

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Rolling
Period
Return (*) Negative
Periods
Average (%) Best (%) Worst (%)
1 Year
10.13 48.42
Jul 1982 - Jun 1983
-34.14
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009
19.75%
2 Years
9.86 35.19
May 1985 - Apr 1987
-18.86
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009
9.58%
3 Years
9.67 32.10
Aug 1984 - Jul 1987
-9.11
Mar 2006 - Feb 2009
7.45%
4 Years
9.65 27.58
Aug 1982 - Jul 1986
-4.10
Mar 2005 - Feb 2009
1.18%
5 Years
9.75 27.40
Aug 1982 - Jul 1987
-1.14
Mar 2004 - Feb 2009
0.69%
6 Years
9.83 23.04
Oct 1981 - Sep 1987
2.26
Apr 2014 - Mar 2020
0.00%
7 Years
9.87 22.08
Aug 1982 - Jul 1989
2.11
Mar 2002 - Feb 2009
0.00%
8 Years
9.91 19.99
Jun 1979 - May 1987
1.49
Mar 2001 - Feb 2009
0.00%
9 Years
9.96 19.82
Apr 1978 - Mar 1987
1.41
Mar 2000 - Feb 2009
0.00%
10 Years
9.99 19.33
Sep 1977 - Aug 1987
2.74
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009
0.00%
11 Years
9.99 18.62
Sep 1976 - Aug 1987
2.53
Mar 1998 - Feb 2009
0.00%
12 Years
9.99 18.65
Oct 1974 - Sep 1986
3.66
Mar 1997 - Feb 2009
0.00%
13 Years
10.02 19.28
Oct 1974 - Sep 1987
3.50
Apr 2007 - Mar 2020
0.00%
14 Years
9.99 17.75
Oct 1974 - Sep 1988
4.14
Apr 2006 - Mar 2020
0.00%
15 Years
9.98 17.85
Oct 1974 - Sep 1989
3.92
Oct 2007 - Sep 2022
0.00%
20 Years
9.85 14.99
Oct 1974 - Sep 1994
5.01
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020
0.00%
30 Years
9.77 12.67
Jan 1975 - Dec 2004
6.75
Apr 1990 - Mar 2020
0.00%
(*) Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods

Annualized Rolling Returns - 1 Year (12 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+10.13% +48.42%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1983
-34.14%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009
19.75%
124 out of 628
1 Year Annualized Rolling Returns over time
1 Year Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 2 Years (24 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+9.86% +35.19%
May 1985 - Apr 1987
-18.86%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009
9.58%
59 out of 616
2 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
2 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 3 Years (36 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+9.67% +32.10%
Aug 1984 - Jul 1987
-9.11%
Mar 2006 - Feb 2009
7.45%
45 out of 604
3 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
3 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 4 Years (48 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+9.65% +27.58%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1986
-4.10%
Mar 2005 - Feb 2009
1.18%
7 out of 592
4 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
4 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 5 Years (60 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+9.75% +27.40%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1987
-1.14%
Mar 2004 - Feb 2009
0.69%
4 out of 580
5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 6 Years (72 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+9.83% +23.04%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1987
+2.26%
Apr 2014 - Mar 2020
0.00%
0 out of 568
6 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
6 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 7 Years (84 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+9.87% +22.08%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1989
+2.11%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2009
0.00%
0 out of 556
7 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
7 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 8 Years (96 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+9.91% +19.99%
Jun 1979 - May 1987
+1.49%
Mar 2001 - Feb 2009
0.00%
0 out of 544
8 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
8 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 9 Years (108 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+9.96% +19.82%
Apr 1978 - Mar 1987
+1.41%
Mar 2000 - Feb 2009
0.00%
0 out of 532
9 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
9 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 10 Years (120 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+9.99% +19.33%
Sep 1977 - Aug 1987
+2.74%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009
0.00%
0 out of 520
10 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
10 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 11 Years (132 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+9.99% +18.62%
Sep 1976 - Aug 1987
+2.53%
Mar 1998 - Feb 2009
0.00%
0 out of 508
11 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
11 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 12 Years (144 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+9.99% +18.65%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1986
+3.66%
Mar 1997 - Feb 2009
0.00%
0 out of 496
12 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
12 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 13 Years (156 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+10.02% +19.28%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1987
+3.50%
Apr 2007 - Mar 2020
0.00%
0 out of 484
13 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
13 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 14 Years (168 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+9.99% +17.75%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1988
+4.14%
Apr 2006 - Mar 2020
0.00%
0 out of 472
14 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
14 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 15 Years (180 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+9.98% +17.85%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1989
+3.92%
Oct 2007 - Sep 2022
0.00%
0 out of 460
15 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
15 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 20 Years (240 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+9.85% +14.99%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1994
+5.01%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020
0.00%
0 out of 400
20 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
20 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 30 Years (360 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+9.77% +12.67%
Jan 1975 - Dec 2004
+6.75%
Apr 1990 - Mar 2020
0.00%
0 out of 280
30 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
30 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

In order to have complete information about the portfolio, please refer to the Frank Armstrong Ideal Index Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns page.

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