Data Source: from January 1994 to December 2021
Last Update: 31 December 2021
The David Swensen Lazy Portfolio is exposed for 70% on the Stock Market.
It's a High Risk portfolio and it can be replicated with 6 ETFs.
In the last 10 years, the portfolio obtained a 9.58% compound annual return, with a 9.01% standard deviation.
In the last 25 years, a 8.41% compound annual return, with a 10.83% standard deviation.
Asset Allocation and ETFs
The David Swensen Lazy Portfolio has the following asset allocation:
The David Swensen Lazy Portfolio can be replicated with the following ETFs:
| Weight | Ticker | ETF Name | Investment Themes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30.00 % | VTI | Vanguard Total Stock Market | Equity, U.S., Large Cap | |
| 20.00 % | VNQ | Vanguard Real Estate | Real Estate, U.S. | |
| 15.00 % | VEU | Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US | Equity, Global ex-US, Large Cap | |
| 5.00 % | EEM | iShares MSCI Emerging Markets | Equity, Emerging Markets, Large Cap | |
| 15.00 % | IEI | iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond | Bond, U.S., Intermediate-Term | |
| 15.00 % | TIP | iShares TIPS Bond | Bond, U.S., All-Term |
Portfolio and ETF Returns
The David Swensen Lazy Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.
| 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y(*) | 5Y(*) | 10Y(*) | 20Y(*) | 25Y(*) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Swensen Lazy Portfolio | +4.00 | +6.63 | +6.03 | +17.34 | +16.30 | +11.08 | +9.58 | +8.67 | +8.41 |
| --- Inflation Adjusted return | +3.51 | +4.32 | +2.55 | +9.53 | +12.34 | +7.92 | +7.31 | +6.22 | +5.98 |
| Components | |||||||||
|
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market |
+3.79 | +9.11 | +9.08 | +25.67 | +25.73 | +17.96 | +16.29 | +9.91 | +9.88 |
|
VNQ Vanguard Real Estate |
+9.69 | +15.03 | +15.74 | +40.52 | +19.96 | +11.22 | +11.50 | +10.89 | +9.94 |
|
VEU Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US |
+3.69 | +1.96 | -1.37 | +8.28 | +13.60 | +9.89 | +7.57 | +6.87 | +5.48 |
|
EEM iShares MSCI Emerging Markets |
+1.53 | -1.57 | -10.09 | -3.61 | +10.06 | +9.16 | +4.73 | +8.87 | +5.94 |
|
IEI iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond |
-0.40 | -0.91 | -1.01 | -2.54 | +3.28 | +2.48 | +1.84 | +3.90 | +4.58 |
|
TIP iShares TIPS Bond |
+0.40 | +2.39 | +4.14 | +5.67 | +8.26 | +5.18 | +2.93 | +5.18 | +5.79 |
- a rebalancing of the components at the beginning of each year (i.e. at every January 1st)
- the reinvestment of dividends
Inflation is updated to Dec 2021. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 7.12% , 3Y: 3.53% , 5Y: 2.92% , 10Y: 2.12% , 20Y: 2.31% , 25Y: 2.29%
In 2021, the portfolio granted a 2.51% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the David Swensen Lazy Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.
Historical Returns
Historical returns and stats of David Swensen Lazy Portfolio. Total Returns and Inflation Adjusted Returns are both mentioned.
| Period | Return Dec 2021 update |
Return Inflation Adjusted |
Standard Deviation(*) |
Max Drawdown |
Months Pos - Neg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1M
Dec 2021
|
+4.00%
|
+3.51%
|
0.00%
|
1 - 0
|
|
|
3M
|
+6.63%
|
+4.32%
|
-1.59%
Nov 2021 - Nov 2021
|
2 - 1
|
|
|
6M
|
+6.03%
|
+2.55%
|
-3.57%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
|
4 - 2
|
|
|
YTD
|
+17.34%
|
+9.53%
|
7.54%
|
-3.57%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
|
10 - 2
83% pos
|
|
1Y
|
+17.34%
|
+9.53%
|
7.54%
|
-3.57%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
|
10 - 2
83% pos
|
|
3Y
|
+16.30%
annualized
|
+12.34%
annualized
|
11.58%
|
-14.66%
Feb 2020 - Mar 2020
|
29 - 7
81% pos
|
|
5Y
|
+11.08%
annualized
|
+7.92%
annualized
|
10.10%
|
-14.66%
Feb 2020 - Mar 2020
|
49 - 11
82% pos
|
|
10Y
|
+9.58%
annualized
|
+7.31%
annualized
|
9.01%
|
-14.66%
Feb 2020 - Mar 2020
|
87 - 33
73% pos
|
|
20Y
|
+8.67%
annualized
|
+6.22%
annualized
|
11.04%
|
-40.89%
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
|
166 - 74
69% pos
|
|
25Y
|
+8.41%
annualized
|
+5.98%
annualized
|
10.83%
|
-40.89%
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
|
203 - 97
68% pos
|
|
MAX
01 Jan 1994
|
+8.61%
annualized
|
+6.12%
annualized
|
10.48%
|
-40.89%
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
|
230 - 106
68% pos
|
Portfolio efficiency
Is the David Swensen Lazy Portfolio actually efficient, compared to other Lazy Portfolios?
Best Classic Portfolios, with High Risk, ordered by 25 Years annualized return.
25 Years Stats |
% Allocation |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | Return▾ | Drawdown | Stocks | Bonds | Comm. | ||
| Simple Path to Wealth JL Collins |
+8.96% | -38.54% | 75 | 25 | 0 | Compare | |
| Yale Endowment David Swensen |
+8.94% | -39.46% | 70 | 30 | 0 | Compare | |
| Talmud Portfolio Roger Gibson |
+8.80% | -40.18% | 66.67 | 33.33 | 0 | Compare | |
| Late Sixties and Beyond Burton Malkiel |
+8.63% | -41.80% | 71 | 29 | 0 | Compare | |
| Lazy Portfolio David Swensen |
+8.41% | -40.88% | 70 | 30 | 0 | ||
Our overall ratings, assigned to the David Swensen Lazy Portfolio. The portfolio is classified as High Risk.
Less than 25%
25% - 49.99%
50% - 74.99%
At least 75%
| High Risk Portfolios |
All Portfolios |
||
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Years Ann. Return (Inflation Adjusted) |
+8.41%
(+5.98%) |
Good : 3.8 / 5
|
Good : 3.8 / 5
|
| Standard Deviation over 25 Years |
10.83% |
Average : 2.2 / 5
|
Good : 3.2 / 5
|
| Maximum Drawdown over 25 Years |
-40.89% |
Poor : 1 / 5
|
Average : 2.4 / 5
|
| Easy to manage | 6 ETFs |
Average : 2.5 / 5
|
Average : 2.5 / 5
|
| Rating assigned considering all the High Risk Portfolios | Rating assigned considering all the Portfolios in the database |
Capital Growth
An investment of 1000$, since January 1997, now would be worth 7522.19$, with a total return of 652.22% (8.41% annualized).
The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 4271.29$, with a net total return of 327.13% (5.98% annualized).
Drawdowns
Worst drawdowns since January 1997 - Chart and Data
Drawdown period |
Recovery period |
Total |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drawdown | Start | Bottom | #Months | End | #Months | #Months |
| -40.89% | Nov 2007 | Feb 2009 | 16 | Dec 2010 | 22 | 38 |
| -14.66% | Feb 2020 | Mar 2020 | 2 | Aug 2020 | 5 | 7 |
| -12.40% | May 2011 | Sep 2011 | 5 | Feb 2012 | 5 | 10 |
| -11.28% | Apr 1998 | Aug 1998 | 5 | Dec 1998 | 4 | 9 |
| -10.67% | Sep 2000 | Sep 2002 | 25 | May 2003 | 8 | 33 |
| -8.18% | Sep 2018 | Dec 2018 | 4 | Mar 2019 | 3 | 7 |
| -6.84% | Mar 2015 | Sep 2015 | 7 | Jun 2016 | 9 | 16 |
| -5.90% | Apr 2004 | Apr 2004 | 1 | Sep 2004 | 5 | 6 |
| -4.74% | May 2012 | May 2012 | 1 | Aug 2012 | 3 | 4 |
| -4.57% | May 2013 | Aug 2013 | 4 | Oct 2013 | 2 | 6 |
| -4.14% | Jun 2007 | Jul 2007 | 2 | Sep 2007 | 2 | 4 |
| -3.96% | Feb 2018 | Feb 2018 | 1 | Aug 2018 | 6 | 7 |
| -3.79% | Aug 1997 | Aug 1997 | 1 | Sep 1997 | 1 | 2 |
| -3.57% | Sep 2021 | Sep 2021 | 1 | Oct 2021 | 1 | 2 |
| -3.50% | Sep 2014 | Sep 2014 | 1 | Nov 2014 | 2 | 3 |
| -3.44% | Sep 2020 | Oct 2020 | 2 | Nov 2020 | 1 | 3 |
| -3.28% | Oct 1997 | Oct 1997 | 1 | Jan 1998 | 3 | 4 |
| -3.25% | Jul 1999 | Sep 1999 | 3 | Nov 1999 | 2 | 5 |
| -3.03% | Aug 2016 | Nov 2016 | 4 | Jan 2017 | 2 | 6 |
| -2.88% | Apr 2000 | May 2000 | 2 | Jun 2000 | 1 | 3 |
Rolling Returns ( more details)
David Swensen Lazy Portfolio: annualized rolling and average returns
| Return (*) | Negative Periods |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rolling Period | Average | Best | Worst | |
| 1 Year |
+9.30% |
+48.80% Mar 2009 - Feb 2010 |
-35.77% Mar 2008 - Feb 2009 |
16.92% |
| 2 Years |
+8.74% |
+34.03% Mar 2009 - Feb 2011 |
-19.80% Mar 2007 - Feb 2009 |
10.54% |
| 3 Years |
+8.49% |
+23.62% Mar 2009 - Feb 2012 |
-9.56% Mar 2006 - Feb 2009 |
8.64% |
| 5 Years |
+8.15% |
+17.95% Mar 2009 - Feb 2014 |
-1.29% Mar 2004 - Feb 2009 |
0.72% |
| 7 Years |
+7.94% |
+12.97% Mar 2009 - Feb 2016 |
+2.61% Mar 2002 - Feb 2009 |
0.00% |
| 10 Years |
+8.09% |
+11.76% Mar 2009 - Feb 2019 |
+3.38% Mar 1999 - Feb 2009 |
0.00% |
| 15 Years |
+7.78% |
+9.34% Feb 2003 - Jan 2018 |
+5.58% Mar 1994 - Feb 2009 |
0.00% |
| 20 Years |
+7.97% |
+9.29% Dec 1994 - Nov 2014 |
+6.35% Apr 2000 - Mar 2020 |
0.00% |
* Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods
If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the David Swensen Lazy Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.
Seasonality
David Swensen Lazy Portfolio Seasonality: in which months is it better to invest?
In the table below, the average monthly return is represented.
Below each return, it's also mentioned the probability of obtaining a positive monthly result (Win %).
Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.
| Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return (%) | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
| Average Win % |
0.50 64% |
0.02 64% |
0.82 75% |
1.88 86% |
0.46 64% |
0.48 68% |
1.08 68% |
0.07 64% |
0.15 57% |
0.56 64% |
1.09 64% |
1.73 82% |
| Best Year |
6.9 2019 |
3.5 2014 |
6.7 2009 |
10.3 2009 |
5.5 2009 |
3.9 2019 |
6.7 2009 |
4.4 2009 |
5.8 2010 |
8.6 2011 |
7.8 2020 |
6.0 2008 |
| Worst Year |
-8.5 2009 |
-9.0 2009 |
-10.6 2020 |
-5.9 2004 |
-5.3 2010 |
-5.9 2008 |
-4.6 2002 |
-9.1 1998 |
-7.0 2011 |
-16.8 2008 |
-6.5 2008 |
-5.0 2018 |
For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
Monthly/Yearly Returns
David Swensen Lazy Portfolio monthly and yearly returns: how is the distribution of the returns recorded so far?
Yearly Return(%) |
Monthly Return(%) |
|||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Total | Infl.Adj | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
| 2021 |
+17.34 | +9.53 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | -3.6 | 4.2 | -1.6 | 4.0 |
| 2020 |
+10.56 | +9.14 | 0.0 | -4.5 | -10.6 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 3.1 | -1.9 | -1.5 | 7.8 | 3.4 |
| 2019 |
+21.27 | +18.59 | 6.9 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.7 | -2.7 | 3.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 2.1 |
| 2018 |
-5.67 | -7.45 | 1.7 | -4.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 1.3 | -0.7 | -4.8 | 2.2 | -5.0 |
| 2017 |
+13.94 | +11.59 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| 2016 |
+7.74 | +5.57 | -2.9 | -0.2 | 6.3 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 2.2 | 3.1 | -0.8 | 0.2 | -2.3 | -0.2 | 1.8 |
| 2015 |
-0.95 | -1.58 | 1.3 | 1.6 | -0.2 | 0.1 | -0.2 | -2.2 | 1.4 | -4.8 | -0.9 | 4.7 | -0.3 | -1.0 |
| 2014 |
+9.97 | +9.26 | -0.9 | 3.5 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.4 | -0.8 | 2.4 | -3.5 | 3.3 | 1.2 | -0.5 |
| 2013 |
+10.89 | +9.24 | 2.6 | 0.4 | 1.9 | 2.7 | -2.0 | -2.3 | 3.0 | -3.2 | 3.8 | 3.1 | -0.2 | 0.8 |
| 2012 |
+13.49 | +11.52 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | -4.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | -0.6 | 0.7 | 2.1 |
| 2011 |
+2.21 | -0.83 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 0.2 | 3.6 | -0.4 | -1.4 | 0.1 | -4.3 | -7.0 | 8.6 | -1.2 | 0.9 |
| 2010 |
+15.37 | +13.73 | -2.9 | 2.2 | 5.2 | 2.4 | -5.3 | -2.6 | 6.1 | -1.8 | 5.8 | 3.3 | -1.4 | 4.1 |
| 2009 |
+24.86 | +21.44 | -8.5 | -9.0 | 6.7 | 10.3 | 5.5 | -1.0 | 6.7 | 4.4 | 4.5 | -2.3 | 5.0 | 2.2 |
| 2008 |
-25.53 | -25.51 | -2.6 | -0.8 | 0.9 | 3.4 | 0.7 | -5.9 | -0.3 | 0.2 | -5.4 | -16.8 | -6.5 | 6.0 |
| 2007 |
+5.59 | +1.42 | 2.5 | -0.6 | 0.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | -2.1 | -2.1 | 2.0 | 3.8 | 2.9 | -3.2 | -1.5 |
| 2006 |
+17.84 | +14.93 | 4.2 | 0.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | -2.8 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 0.3 |
| 2005 |
+8.97 | +5.45 | -2.7 | 2.2 | -1.8 | 0.6 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 3.1 | -0.1 | 1.5 | -2.5 | 3.0 | 1.4 |
| 2004 |
+16.10 | +12.34 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | -5.9 | 2.2 | 1.6 | -1.4 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 3.4 |
| 2003 |
+26.85 | +24.32 | -1.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 3.8 |
| 2002 |
-3.41 | -5.75 | -0.7 | 0.6 | 3.0 | -0.3 | 0.4 | -1.9 | -4.6 | 1.3 | -4.4 | 1.1 | 3.2 | -0.7 |
| 2001 |
-1.71 | -3.26 | 2.5 | -4.4 | -3.1 | 4.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | -0.9 | -1.0 | -4.9 | 1.3 | 3.3 | 1.2 |
| 2000 |
+3.13 | -0.30 | -2.3 | 1.5 | 3.6 | -1.5 | -1.4 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 1.9 | -1.5 | -2.0 | -2.6 | 3.6 |
| 1999 |
+12.70 | +9.77 | 0.6 | -2.6 | 2.5 | 5.0 | -1.6 | 2.1 | -1.6 | -0.5 | -1.1 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 5.2 |
| 1998 |
+8.13 | +6.42 | 0.4 | 3.4 | 2.8 | -0.1 | -1.6 | 1.0 | -1.7 | -9.1 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 2.3 |
| 1997 |
+15.35 | +13.42 | 1.5 | 0.3 | -2.0 | 1.3 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 4.4 | -3.8 | 5.3 | -3.3 | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| 1996 |
+15.04 | +11.28 | 1.7 | -0.2 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | -2.4 | 1.6 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 4.4 | 1.2 |
| 1995 |
+20.31 | +17.34 | -0.3 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 2.1 | -1.0 | 2.5 | 2.8 |
| 1994 |
-2.86 | -5.32 | 3.8 | -2.3 | -4.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | -1.2 | 1.9 | 2.4 | -2.5 | 0.2 | -3.1 | 2.0 |
* Note: Portofolio Returns, up to December 2007, are simulated. They have been calculated using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.
In particular, it has been used:
- VTI - Vanguard Total Stock Market: simulated historical serie, up to December 2001
- VNQ - Vanguard Real Estate: simulated historical serie, up to December 2004
- VEU - Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
- EEM - iShares MSCI Emerging Markets: simulated historical serie, up to December 2003
- IEI - iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
- TIP - iShares TIPS Bond: simulated historical serie, up to December 2003