Data Source: from January 1994 to September 2021
Last Update: 30 September 2021
The David Swensen Lazy Portfolio is exposed for 70% on the Stock Market.
It's a High Risk portfolio and it can be replicated with 6 ETFs.
In the last 10 years, the portfolio obtained a 9.75% compound annual return, with a 9.22% standard deviation.
In the last 25 years, a 8.43% compound annual return, with a 10.81% standard deviation.
In 2020, the portfolio granted a 2.03% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the David Swensen Lazy Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.
Asset Allocation and ETFs
The David Swensen Lazy Portfolio has the following asset allocation:
The David Swensen Lazy Portfolio can be replicated with the following ETFs:
| Weight | Ticker | ETF Name | Investment Themes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30.00 % | VTI | Vanguard Total Stock Market | Equity, U.S., Large Cap | |
| 20.00 % | VNQ | Vanguard Real Estate | Real Estate, U.S. | |
| 15.00 % | VEU | Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US | Equity, Global ex-US, Large Cap | |
| 5.00 % | EEM | iShares MSCI Emerging Markets | Equity, Emerging Markets, Large Cap | |
| 15.00 % | IEI | iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond | Bond, U.S., Intermediate-Term | |
| 15.00 % | TIP | iShares TIPS Bond | Bond, U.S., All-Term |
Portfolio and ETF Returns
The David Swensen Lazy Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.
| 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y(*) | 5Y(*) | 10Y(*) | 20Y(*) | 25Y(*) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Swensen Lazy Portfolio | -3.57 | -0.56 | +5.88 | +20.75 | +10.90 | +9.51 | +9.75 | +8.63 | +8.43 |
| Components | |||||||||
|
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market |
-4.46 | -0.03 | +8.10 | +32.16 | +16.05 | +16.88 | +16.60 | +10.07 | +9.79 |
|
VNQ Vanguard Real Estate |
-5.68 | +0.62 | +12.29 | +33.49 | +11.96 | +7.52 | +11.52 | +10.37 | +10.07 |
|
VEU Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US |
-3.33 | -3.26 | +1.87 | +23.82 | +8.34 | +9.04 | +7.99 | +7.18 | +5.40 |
|
EEM iShares MSCI Emerging Markets |
-3.87 | -8.65 | -5.14 | +15.96 | +7.76 | +8.29 | +5.81 | +10.20 | +6.12 |
|
IEI iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond |
-0.82 | -0.10 | +0.57 | -1.82 | +4.52 | +2.09 | +2.02 | +3.87 | +4.74 |
|
TIP iShares TIPS Bond |
-0.78 | +1.71 | +4.97 | +4.88 | +7.23 | +4.13 | +2.97 | +4.99 | +5.88 |
- a rebalancing of the components at the beginning of each year (i.e. at every January 1st)
- the reinvestment of dividends
If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the David Swensen Lazy Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.
Historical Returns
David Swensen Lazy Portfolio - Historical returns and stats.
| Period | Returns Sep 2021 |
Standard Deviation * |
Max Drawdown |
Months Pos - Neg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1M
|
-3.57%
|
-3.57%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
|
0 - 1 | |
|
3M
|
-0.56%
|
-3.57%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
|
2 - 1 | |
|
6M
|
+5.88%
|
-3.57%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
|
5 - 1 | |
|
YTD
|
+10.04%
|
-3.57%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
|
8 - 1 | |
|
1Y
|
+20.75%
|
9.30%
|
-3.57%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
|
10 - 2 |
|
3Y
|
+10.90%
annualized
|
12.26%
|
-14.65%
Feb 2020 - Mar 2020
|
28 - 8 |
|
5Y
|
+9.51%
annualized
|
9.96%
|
-14.65%
Feb 2020 - Mar 2020
|
48 - 12 |
|
10Y
|
+9.75%
annualized
|
9.22%
|
-14.65%
Feb 2020 - Mar 2020
|
87 - 33 |
|
20Y
|
+8.63%
annualized
|
11.00%
|
-40.88%
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
|
167 - 73 |
|
25Y
|
+8.43%
annualized
|
10.81%
|
-40.88%
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
|
204 - 96 |
|
MAX
01 Jan 1994
|
+8.44%
annualized
|
10.48%
|
-40.88%
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
|
228 - 105 |
Best Classic Portfolios, with High Risk, ordered by 25 Years annualized return.
25 Years Stats |
% Allocation |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | Return▾ | Drawdown | Stocks | Bonds | Comm. | ||
| Yale Endowment David Swensen |
+8.94% | -39.46% | 70 | 30 | 0 | Compare | |
| Simple Path to Wealth JL Collins |
+8.92% | -38.54% | 75 | 25 | 0 | Compare | |
| Talmud Portfolio Roger Gibson |
+8.85% | -40.18% | 66.67 | 33.33 | 0 | Compare | |
| Late Sixties and Beyond Burton Malkiel |
+8.64% | -41.80% | 71 | 29 | 0 | Compare | |
| Lazy Portfolio David Swensen |
+8.43% | -40.88% | 70 | 30 | 0 | ||
Capital Growth
Drawdowns
Rolling Returns ( more details)
David Swensen Lazy Portfolio: annualized rolling and average returns
| Return (*) | Negative Periods |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rolling Period | Average | Best | Worst | |
| 1 Year |
+9.20% |
+48.80% Mar 2009 - Feb 2010 |
-35.77% Mar 2008 - Feb 2009 |
17.08% |
| 2 Years |
+8.69% |
+34.03% Mar 2009 - Feb 2011 |
-19.80% Mar 2007 - Feb 2009 |
10.65% |
| 3 Years |
+8.43% |
+23.62% Mar 2009 - Feb 2012 |
-9.57% Mar 2006 - Feb 2009 |
8.72% |
| 5 Years |
+8.12% |
+17.95% Mar 2009 - Feb 2014 |
-1.29% Mar 2004 - Feb 2009 |
0.73% |
| 7 Years |
+7.94% |
+12.97% Mar 2009 - Feb 2016 |
+2.61% Mar 2002 - Feb 2009 |
0.00% |
| 10 Years |
+8.07% |
+11.76% Mar 2009 - Feb 2019 |
+3.38% Mar 1999 - Feb 2009 |
0.00% |
| 15 Years |
+7.79% |
+9.34% Feb 2003 - Jan 2018 |
+5.58% Mar 1994 - Feb 2009 |
0.00% |
| 20 Years |
+7.95% |
+9.29% Dec 1994 - Nov 2014 |
+6.35% Apr 2000 - Mar 2020 |
0.00% |
* Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods
If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the David Swensen Lazy Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.
Seasonality and Yearly/Monthly Returns
David Swensen Lazy Portfolio Seasonality: in which months is it better to invest?
In the table below, the average monthly return is represented.
Below each return, it's also mentioned the probability of obtaining a positive monthly result (Win %).
Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.
| Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return (%) | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
| Average Win % |
0.50 64% |
0.02 64% |
0.83 75% |
1.88 86% |
0.46 64% |
0.48 68% |
1.08 68% |
0.07 64% |
0.15 57% |
0.43 63% |
1.19 67% |
1.64 81% |
| Best Year |
6.9 2019 |
3.5 2014 |
6.7 2009 |
10.3 2009 |
5.5 2009 |
3.9 2019 |
6.8 2009 |
4.4 2009 |
5.8 2010 |
8.6 2011 |
7.8 2020 |
6.0 2008 |
| Worst Year |
-8.5 2009 |
-9.0 2009 |
-10.6 2020 |
-5.9 2004 |
-5.3 2010 |
-5.9 2008 |
-4.6 2002 |
-9.1 1998 |
-7.0 2011 |
-16.8 2008 |
-6.5 2008 |
-5.0 2018 |
For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
Monthly Returns of David Swensen Lazy Portfolio
| Months | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Return | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
| 2021 |
+10.04% | 0.1 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | -3.6 | |||
| 2020 |
+10.56% | 0.0 | -4.5 | -10.6 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 3.1 | -1.9 | -1.5 | 7.8 | 3.4 |
| 2019 |
+21.27% | 6.9 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.8 | -2.7 | 3.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 2.1 |
| 2018 |
-5.67% | 1.7 | -4.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 1.3 | -0.7 | -4.8 | 2.2 | -5.0 |
| 2017 |
+13.94% | 1.7 | 2.2 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| 2016 |
+7.74% | -2.9 | -0.2 | 6.3 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 2.2 | 3.1 | -0.8 | 0.2 | -2.3 | -0.2 | 1.8 |
| 2015 |
-0.95% | 1.3 | 1.6 | -0.3 | 0.1 | -0.2 | -2.2 | 1.4 | -4.8 | -1.0 | 4.7 | -0.3 | -1.0 |
| 2014 |
+9.97% | -0.9 | 3.5 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.4 | -0.8 | 2.4 | -3.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | -0.5 |
| 2013 |
+10.89% | 2.6 | 0.4 | 1.9 | 2.7 | -2.0 | -2.3 | 3.0 | -3.2 | 3.8 | 3.1 | -0.2 | 0.8 |
| 2012 |
+13.49% | 4.8 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | -4.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | -0.6 | 0.7 | 2.1 |
| 2011 |
+2.21% | 1.3 | 2.5 | 0.2 | 3.6 | -0.4 | -1.4 | 0.1 | -4.3 | -7.0 | 8.6 | -1.2 | 0.9 |
| 2010 |
+15.37% | -2.9 | 2.3 | 5.2 | 2.4 | -5.3 | -2.6 | 6.2 | -1.8 | 5.8 | 3.3 | -1.4 | 4.1 |
| 2009 |
+24.86% | -8.5 | -9.0 | 6.7 | 10.3 | 5.5 | -1.0 | 6.8 | 4.4 | 4.5 | -2.3 | 5.0 | 2.2 |
| 2008 |
-25.53% | -2.6 | -0.8 | 1.0 | 3.4 | 0.7 | -5.9 | -0.3 | 0.2 | -5.4 | -16.8 | -6.5 | 6.0 |
| 2007 |
+5.59% | 2.5 | -0.7 | 0.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | -2.1 | -2.1 | 2.0 | 3.8 | 2.9 | -3.2 | -1.5 |
| 2006 |
+17.84% | 4.2 | 0.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | -2.8 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 0.3 |
| 2005 |
+8.97% | -2.7 | 2.2 | -1.8 | 0.6 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 3.1 | -0.1 | 1.5 | -2.5 | 3.0 | 1.5 |
| 2004 |
+16.10% | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | -5.9 | 2.2 | 1.6 | -1.4 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 3.4 |
| 2003 |
+26.85% | -1.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 3.8 |
| 2002 |
-3.41% | -0.7 | 0.6 | 3.0 | -0.3 | 0.4 | -1.9 | -4.6 | 1.3 | -4.4 | 1.1 | 3.2 | -0.7 |
| 2001 |
-1.71% | 2.5 | -4.4 | -3.1 | 4.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | -0.9 | -1.0 | -4.9 | 1.3 | 3.3 | 1.2 |
| 2000 |
+3.13% | -2.3 | 1.5 | 3.6 | -1.5 | -1.4 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 1.9 | -1.5 | -2.0 | -2.6 | 3.6 |
| 1999 |
+12.70% | 0.6 | -2.6 | 2.5 | 5.0 | -1.6 | 2.1 | -1.6 | -0.5 | -1.2 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 5.2 |
| 1998 |
+8.13% | 0.4 | 3.4 | 2.8 | -0.1 | -1.6 | 1.0 | -1.7 | -9.1 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 2.3 |
| 1997 |
+15.35% | 1.5 | 0.3 | -2.0 | 1.3 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 4.4 | -3.8 | 5.3 | -3.3 | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| 1996 |
+15.04% | 1.7 | -0.2 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | -2.4 | 1.6 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 4.4 | 1.2 |
| 1995 |
+20.31% | -0.4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 2.1 | -1.0 | 2.5 | 2.8 |
| 1994 |
-2.86% | 3.8 | -2.3 | -4.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | -1.2 | 1.9 | 2.4 | -2.5 | 0.2 | -3.1 | 2.0 |
* Note: Portofolio Returns, up to December 2007, are simulated. They have been calculated using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.
In particular, it has been used:
- VTI - Vanguard Total Stock Market: simulated historical serie, up to December 2001
- VNQ - Vanguard Real Estate: simulated historical serie, up to December 2004
- VEU - Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
- EEM - iShares MSCI Emerging Markets: simulated historical serie, up to December 2003
- IEI - iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
- TIP - iShares TIPS Bond: simulated historical serie, up to December 2003