Data Source: from January 1995 to December 2021

Last Update: 31 December 2021

The Burton Malkiel Late Thirties to Early Forties Portfolio is exposed for 85% on the Stock Market.

It's a Very High Risk portfolio and it can be replicated with 8 ETFs.

In the last 10 years, the portfolio obtained a 10.72% compound annual return, with a 11.16% standard deviation.

In the last 25 years, a 8.65% compound annual return, with a 13.77% standard deviation.

Asset Allocation and ETFs

The Burton Malkiel Late Thirties to Early Forties Portfolio has the following asset allocation:

85% Stocks
15% Fixed Income
0% Commodities

The Burton Malkiel Late Thirties to Early Forties Portfolio can be replicated with the following ETFs:

Weight Ticker ETF Name Investment Themes
32.50 % VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market Equity, U.S., Large Cap
16.25 % EFA iShares MSCI EAFE Equity, EAFE, Large Cap
16.25 % EEM iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Equity, Emerging Markets, Large Cap
10.00 % VIG Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Equity, U.S., Large Cap
10.00 % VNQ Vanguard Real Estate Real Estate, U.S.
5.00 % EMB iShares JP Morgan USD Em Mkts Bd Bond, Emerging Markets, All-Term
5.00 % BIL SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill Bond, U.S., Ultra Short-Term
5.00 % LQD iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond Bond, U.S., All-Term
Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

Portfolio and ETF Returns

The Burton Malkiel Late Thirties to Early Forties Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.

BURTON MALKIEL LATE THIRTIES TO EARLY FORTIES PORTFOLIO RETURNS (%)
Last Update: 31 December 2021
Swipe left to see all data
1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y(*) 5Y(*) 10Y(*) 20Y(*) 25Y(*)
Burton Malkiel Late Thirties to Early Forties Portfolio +4.13 +6.33 +4.64 +15.84 +17.46 +12.56 +10.72 +9.04 +8.65
--- Inflation Adjusted return +3.64 +4.03 +1.20 +8.13 +13.46 +9.36 +8.43 +6.58 +6.21
Components
VTI
Vanguard Total Stock Market
+3.79 +9.11 +9.08 +25.67 +25.73 +17.96 +16.29 +9.91 +9.88
EFA
iShares MSCI EAFE
+4.41 +2.84 +1.71 +11.46 +13.53 +9.55 +7.92 +6.26 +5.22
EEM
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets
+1.53 -1.57 -10.09 -3.61 +10.06 +9.16 +4.73 +8.87 +5.94
VIG
Vanguard Dividend Appreciation
+6.52 +12.34 +11.98 +23.77 +22.79 +17.25 +14.44 +10.05 +10.22
VNQ
Vanguard Real Estate
+9.69 +15.03 +15.74 +40.52 +19.96 +11.22 +11.50 +10.89 +9.94
EMB
iShares JP Morgan USD Em Mkts Bd
+2.16 +0.40 -0.82 -2.24 +5.98 +4.41 +4.59 +7.91 +9.09
BIL
SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill
0.00 -0.03 -0.04 -0.10 +0.77 +0.95 +0.45 +1.12 +1.86
LQD
iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond
-0.03 +0.38 -0.08 -1.85 +8.53 +5.66 +4.94 +5.65 +5.93
(*) annualized
Portfolio returns are calculated assuming:
  • a rebalancing of the components at the beginning of each year (i.e. at every January 1st)
  • the reinvestment of dividends

Inflation is updated to Dec 2021. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 7.12% , 3Y: 3.53% , 5Y: 2.92% , 10Y: 2.12% , 20Y: 2.31% , 25Y: 2.29%

In 2021, the portfolio granted a 2.23% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Burton Malkiel Late Thirties to Early Forties Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.

Historical Returns

Historical returns and stats of Burton Malkiel Late Thirties to Early Forties Portfolio. Total Returns and Inflation Adjusted Returns are both mentioned.

BURTON MALKIEL LATE THIRTIES TO EARLY FORTIES PORTFOLIO
Last Update: 31 December 2021
Swipe left to see all data
Period Return
Dec 2021
update
Return
Inflation
Adjusted
Standard
Deviation(*)
Max
Drawdown
Months
Pos - Neg
1M
Dec 2021
+4.13%
+3.64%
0.00%
1 - 0
3M
+6.33%
+4.03%
-2.28%
Nov 2021 - Nov 2021
2 - 1
6M
+4.64%
+1.20%
-3.97%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
4 - 2
YTD
+15.84%
+8.13%
8.33%
-3.97%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
9 - 3
75% pos
1Y
+15.84%
+8.13%
8.33%
-3.97%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
9 - 3
75% pos
3Y
+17.46%
annualized
+13.46%
annualized
14.49%
-19.36%
Jan 2020 - Mar 2020
26 - 10
72% pos
5Y
+12.56%
annualized
+9.36%
annualized
12.63%
-19.36%
Jan 2020 - Mar 2020
44 - 16
73% pos
10Y
+10.72%
annualized
+8.43%
annualized
11.16%
-19.36%
Jan 2020 - Mar 2020
82 - 38
68% pos
20Y
+9.04%
annualized
+6.58%
annualized
13.53%
-48.28%
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
158 - 82
66% pos
25Y
+8.65%
annualized
+6.21%
annualized
13.77%
-48.28%
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
192 - 108
64% pos
MAX
01 Jan 1995
+9.37%
annualized
+6.87%
annualized
13.39%
-48.28%
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
212 - 112
65% pos
(*)Annualized St.Dev. of monthly returns

Portfolio efficiency

Is the Burton Malkiel Late Thirties to Early Forties Portfolio actually efficient, compared to other Lazy Portfolios?

Best Classic Portfolios, with Very High Risk, ordered by 25 Years annualized return.

25 Years Stats
% Allocation
Portfolio Return Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm.
Technology
+13.30% -81.08% 100 0 0 Compare
US Stocks
+9.88% -50.84% 100 0 0 Compare
Warren Buffett Portfolio
Warren Buffett
+9.38% -45.53% 90 10 0 Compare
Aggressive Global Income
+9.25% -52.62% 80 20 0 Compare
Stocks/Bonds 80/20
+9.17% -41.09% 80 20 0 Compare

See all portfolios

Our overall ratings, assigned to the Burton Malkiel Late Thirties to Early Forties Portfolio. The portfolio is classified as Very High Risk.

Very High Risk
Bond weight:
Less than 25%
High Risk
Bond weight:
25% - 49.99%
Medium Risk
Bond weight:
50% - 74.99%
Low Risk
Bond weight:
At least 75%
Very High Risk
Portfolios
All
Portfolios
25 Years Ann. Return
(Inflation Adjusted)
+8.65%
(+6.21%)
Average : 3 / 5
Good : 4 / 5
Standard Deviation
over 25 Years
13.77%
Excellent : 4.1 / 5
Average : 2.5 / 5
Maximum Drawdown
over 25 Years
-48.28%
Excellent : 4.1 / 5
Bad : 1.8 / 5
Easy to manage 8 ETFs
Bad : 1.5 / 5
Bad : 1.5 / 5
Rating assigned considering all the Very High Risk Portfolios Rating assigned considering all the Portfolios in the database

Capital Growth

Time Range:

An investment of 1000$, since January 1997, now would be worth 7949.95$, with a total return of 694.99% (8.65% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 4514.18$, with a net total return of 351.42% (6.21% annualized).

Drawdowns

Time Range:

Worst drawdowns since January 1997 - Chart and Data

Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months
-48.28% Nov 2007 Feb 2009 16 Apr 2011 26 42
-21.55% Sep 2000 Sep 2002 25 Oct 2003 13 38
-19.36% Jan 2020 Mar 2020 3 Aug 2020 5 8
-18.70% May 1998 Aug 1998 4 Mar 1999 7 11
-17.20% May 2011 Sep 2011 5 Sep 2012 12 17
-11.04% Feb 2018 Dec 2018 11 Apr 2019 4 15
-10.51% May 2015 Feb 2016 10 Jul 2016 5 15
-6.18% Apr 2004 Apr 2004 1 Oct 2004 6 7
-6.08% Aug 1997 Oct 1997 3 Feb 1998 4 7
-4.51% May 2019 May 2019 1 Jun 2019 1 2
-4.37% Apr 2000 May 2000 2 Aug 2000 3 5
-3.97% Sep 2021 Sep 2021 1 Oct 2021 1 2
-3.91% May 2006 May 2006 1 Aug 2006 3 4
-3.75% Jul 1999 Sep 1999 3 Nov 1999 2 5
-3.67% Sep 2020 Oct 2020 2 Nov 2020 1 3
-3.65% May 2013 Jun 2013 2 Jul 2013 1 3
-3.59% Jun 2007 Jul 2007 2 Sep 2007 2 4
-3.56% Mar 2005 Apr 2005 2 Jun 2005 2 4
-3.52% Sep 2014 Sep 2014 1 Nov 2014 2 3
-3.52% Jan 2000 Jan 2000 1 Mar 2000 2 3

Rolling Returns ( more details)

Burton Malkiel Late Thirties to Early Forties Portfolio: annualized rolling and average returns

Swipe left to see all data
Return (*) Negative
Periods
Rolling Period Average Best Worst
1 Year
+10.14% +57.14%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2010
-41.31%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009
21.41%
2 Years
+9.04% +37.96%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2011
-22.98%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009
15.28%
3 Years
+8.57% +25.05%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2012
-11.83%
Mar 2006 - Feb 2009
13.84%
5 Years
+8.23% +19.97%
Nov 2002 - Oct 2007
-1.97%
Mar 2004 - Feb 2009
1.13%
7 Years
+7.99% +13.39%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2016
+1.83%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2009
0.00%
10 Years
+8.18% +12.91%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2019
+2.84%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009
0.00%
15 Years
+7.96% +10.43%
Feb 2003 - Jan 2018
+6.41%
Apr 2005 - Mar 2020
0.00%
20 Years
+7.98% +9.44%
Mar 1995 - Feb 2015
+6.06%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020
0.00%

* Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods

If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Burton Malkiel Late Thirties to Early Forties Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.

Seasonality

Burton Malkiel Late Thirties to Early Forties Portfolio Seasonality: in which months is it better to invest?

In the table below, the average monthly return is represented.

Below each return, it's also mentioned the probability of obtaining a positive monthly result (Win %).

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.

Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Win %
0.29
44%
0.24
67%
1.03
78%
2.40
78%
0.35
59%
0.54
63%
0.99
59%
-0.39
56%
0.02
63%
0.84
63%
1.58
74%
2.03
81%
Best
Year
7.8
2019
6.0
1998
8.1
2009
11.8
2009
7.8
2009
5.4
2019
8.2
2009
4.2
2020
7.8
2010
10.4
2011
9.9
2020
7.9
1999
Worst
Year
-9.3
2009
-9.6
2009
-13.2
2020
-6.2
2004
-7.3
2010
-7.6
2008
-7.5
2002
-14.9
1998
-9.3
2001
-18.7
2008
-6.6
2008
-6.1
2018
Statistics calculated for the period Jan 1995 - Dec 2021

For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.

Monthly/Yearly Returns

Burton Malkiel Late Thirties to Early Forties Portfolio monthly and yearly returns: how is the distribution of the returns recorded so far?

MONTHLY RETURNS HISTOGRAM
212 Positive Months (65%) - 112 Negative Months (35%)
Jan 1995 - Dec 2021
Swipe left to see all data
Yearly Return(%)
Monthly Return(%)
Year Total Infl.Adj Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2021
+15.84 +8.13 -0.2 1.7 2.5 3.7 1.3 1.2 0.6 1.9 -4.0 4.5 -2.3 4.1
2020
+12.75 +11.30 -1.1 -6.0 -13.2 8.6 4.1 2.8 4.7 4.2 -2.2 -1.5 9.9 4.2
2019
+24.10 +21.35 7.8 1.9 1.6 2.5 -4.5 5.4 0.2 -0.9 1.6 2.0 1.5 3.1
2018
-7.61 -9.35 3.9 -4.4 -0.4 -0.3 0.7 -0.4 2.8 0.7 0.1 -6.3 2.4 -6.1
2017
+20.64 +18.16 2.5 2.6 0.9 1.4 1.6 0.7 2.4 0.5 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.5
2016
+8.99 +6.80 -4.1 -0.4 7.5 0.5 0.2 1.8 3.6 0.0 0.4 -2.1 0.1 1.7
2015
-2.65 -3.26 -0.3 3.7 -0.9 1.3 -0.3 -2.4 0.7 -5.9 -2.1 6.0 -0.3 -1.7
2014
+7.18 +6.49 -3.3 4.3 0.9 1.0 2.1 1.6 -1.2 2.7 -3.5 2.6 1.2 -1.1
2013
+16.37 +14.64 3.1 0.2 2.0 2.7 -1.3 -2.4 3.8 -3.0 4.6 3.7 0.7 1.6
2012
+15.81 +13.81 5.4 3.4 1.2 -0.4 -6.6 4.3 1.1 1.7 2.2 -0.6 1.1 2.7
2011
-2.39 -5.29 0.8 2.7 0.7 3.4 -1.0 -1.4 -1.3 -5.7 -8.9 10.4 -1.2 0.3
2010
+14.99 +13.36 -4.0 2.3 6.0 1.3 -7.3 -3.2 7.7 -2.8 7.8 3.3 -1.6 5.7
2009
+31.14 +27.55 -9.3 -9.6 8.1 11.8 7.8 -0.6 8.2 3.3 5.2 -2.5 5.3 2.4
2008
-32.91 -32.89 -5.1 -1.2 0.0 4.9 1.2 -7.6 -1.1 -0.6 -8.5 -18.7 -6.6 6.7
2007
+8.39 +4.11 1.9 -1.3 1.5 3.1 2.6 -1.1 -2.5 1.5 5.1 3.8 -4.6 -1.5
2006
+21.40 +18.42 5.3 0.3 1.9 1.7 -3.9 0.5 1.4 2.4 0.7 4.2 3.5 1.7
2005
+11.93 +8.32 -1.7 3.1 -3.3 -0.3 2.6 2.3 4.1 0.4 2.2 -2.9 3.7 1.5
2004
+16.16 +12.40 2.4 1.5 0.7 -6.2 1.8 1.8 -2.3 2.5 2.3 2.5 4.7 3.8
2003
+34.34 +31.66 -1.5 -0.7 0.1 8.0 5.1 2.7 2.7 1.3 0.6 5.2 1.9 5.0
2002
-10.16 -12.33 -0.6 0.6 3.9 -0.7 -0.4 -4.2 -7.5 1.6 -7.4 3.0 3.3 -1.6
2001
-1.34 -2.90 5.6 -6.0 -4.8 5.8 0.5 -0.2 -1.6 -1.1 -9.3 3.0 6.2 2.1
2000
-4.91 -8.07 -3.5 1.2 3.2 -2.6 -1.8 3.7 -0.3 3.0 -2.8 -2.4 -5.2 3.0
1999
+22.20 +19.01 -0.1 -1.5 3.8 6.4 -2.1 3.8 -2.1 -0.4 -1.2 3.6 2.9 7.9
1998
+8.06 +6.35 -0.5 6.0 3.7 0.2 -3.3 0.1 -1.3 -14.9 4.8 6.9 5.0 3.0
1997
+13.64 +11.75 2.7 0.8 -2.8 1.7 5.6 4.0 4.5 -5.1 5.2 -5.9 1.4 1.5
1996
+17.87 +14.01 3.4 0.2 1.1 2.3 1.5 0.1 -3.8 2.4 3.7 0.7 4.9 0.4
1995
+19.80 +16.84 -1.6 1.2 1.9 2.8 3.4 1.3 3.2 -0.1 2.3 -1.7 2.8 2.8

* Note:
Portofolio Returns, up to December 2007, are simulated. They have been calculated using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.

In particular, it has been used:

  • VTI - Vanguard Total Stock Market: simulated historical serie, up to December 2001
  • EFA - iShares MSCI EAFE: simulated historical serie, up to December 2001
  • EEM - iShares MSCI Emerging Markets: simulated historical serie, up to December 2003
  • VIG - Vanguard Dividend Appreciation: simulated historical serie, up to December 2006
  • VNQ - Vanguard Real Estate: simulated historical serie, up to December 2004
  • EMB - iShares JP Morgan USD Em Mkts Bd: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
  • BIL - SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
  • LQD - iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond: simulated historical serie, up to December 2002
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