Burton Malkiel Late Thirties to Early Forties Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns

Data Source: from January 1985 to March 2024 (~39 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 31 March 2024
Live Update: Apr 17 2024
PORTFOLIO • LIVE PERFORMANCE (USD currency)
0.24%
1 Day
Apr 17 2024
4.47%
Current Month
April 2024

The Burton Malkiel Late Thirties to Early Forties Portfolio is a Very High Risk portfolio and can be implemented with 8 ETFs.

It's exposed for 85% on the Stock Market.

In the last 30 Years, the Burton Malkiel Late Thirties to Early Forties Portfolio obtained a 8.50% compound annual return, with a 13.55% standard deviation.

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Asset Allocation and ETFs

The Burton Malkiel Late Thirties to Early Forties Portfolio has the following asset allocation:

85% Stocks
15% Fixed Income
0% Commodities

The Burton Malkiel Late Thirties to Early Forties Portfolio can be implemented with the following ETFs:

Weight
(%)		 Investment Themes (Orig.Currency) ETF
Ticker		 ETF
Currency		 ETF Name
32.50 Equity, U.S., Large Cap (USD)
VTI
USD Vanguard Total Stock Market
16.25 Equity, Emerging Markets, Large Cap (USD)
EEM
USD iShares MSCI Emerging Markets
16.25 Equity, EAFE, Large Cap (USD)
EFA
USD iShares MSCI EAFE
10.00 Equity, U.S., Large Cap (USD)
VIG
USD Vanguard Dividend Appreciation
10.00 Real Estate, U.S. (USD)
VNQ
USD Vanguard Real Estate
5.00 Bond, U.S., Ultra Short-Term (USD)
BIL
USD SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill
5.00 Bond, Emerging Markets, All-Term (USD)
EMB
USD iShares JP Morgan USD Em Mkts Bd
5.00 Bond, U.S., All-Term (USD)
LQD
USD iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond

Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

Portfolio and ETF Returns as of Mar 31, 2024

The Burton Malkiel Late Thirties to Early Forties Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.

Returns are calculated in USD, assuming: April 2024 return is calculated on the hypothesis of a newly built portfolio, with the starting asset allocation.
BURTON MALKIEL LATE THIRTIES TO EARLY FORTIES PORTFOLIO
Consolidated returns as of 31 March 2024
Live Update: Apr 17 2024
Swipe left to see all data
  Chg (%) Return (%) Return (%) as of Mar 31, 2024
  1 Day Time ET(*) Apr 2024 1M 6M 1Y 5Y 10Y 30Y MAX
(~39Y)
Burton Malkiel Late Thirties to Early Forties Portfolio -0.24 -4.47 2.49 16.46 16.56 8.06 7.42 8.50 10.32
US Inflation Adjusted return 2.11 14.62 12.65 3.71 4.46 5.82 7.31
Components
VTI
USD Vanguard Total Stock Market -0.59 Apr 17 2024 -4.70 2.90 22.88 28.85 14.15 12.23 10.49 11.30
EEM
USD iShares MSCI Emerging Markets -0.08 Apr 17 2024 -3.33 2.73 10.33 6.95 1.43 2.24 5.08 8.72
EFA
USD iShares MSCI EAFE 0.07 Apr 17 2024 -4.46 3.38 17.34 15.17 7.34 4.77 4.97 7.89
VIG
USD Vanguard Dividend Appreciation -0.37 Apr 17 2024 -5.08 2.37 18.16 20.38 12.75 11.43 10.76 11.51
VNQ
USD Vanguard Real Estate -0.73 Apr 17 2024 -9.10 1.09 15.70 7.62 3.48 6.11 8.74 9.19
BIL
USD SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill 0.01 Apr 17 2024 0.25 0.41 2.64 5.21 1.87 1.22 2.27 3.11
EMB
USD iShares JP Morgan USD Em Mkts Bd 0.78 Apr 17 2024 -2.20 1.99 11.43 9.24 0.30 2.45 9.05 9.46
LQD
USD iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond 0.55 Apr 17 2024 -3.13 1.54 9.13 3.63 1.39 2.59 5.26 6.69
Returns over 1 year are annualized | Available data source: since Jan 1985
(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)
US Inflation is updated to Mar 2024. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 3.48% , 5Y: 4.19% , 10Y: 2.84% , 30Y: 2.54%
Live update: World Markets and Indexes

In 2023, the Burton Malkiel Late Thirties to Early Forties Portfolio granted a 2.96% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Burton Malkiel Late Thirties to Early Forties Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.

Capital Growth as of Mar 31, 2024

An investment of 1$, since April 1994, now would be worth 11.57$, with a total return of 1057.27% (8.50% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 5.45$, with a net total return of 445.22% (5.82% annualized).
An investment of 1$, since January 1985, now would be worth 47.26$, with a total return of 4626.26% (10.32% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 15.97$, with a net total return of 1496.97% (7.31% annualized).
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Portfolio Metrics as of Mar 31, 2024

Metrics of Burton Malkiel Late Thirties to Early Forties Portfolio, updated as of 31 March 2024.

Metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:
BURTON MALKIEL LATE THIRTIES TO EARLY FORTIES PORTFOLIO
Advanced Metrics
Data Source: 1 January 1985 - 31 March 2024 (~39 years)
Swipe left to see all data
Metrics as of Mar 31, 2024
1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
(~39Y)
Investment Return (%) 2.49 5.03 16.46 16.56 4.09 8.06 7.42 7.85 8.50 10.32
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) details 2.11 3.86 14.62 12.65 -1.46 3.71 4.46 5.12 5.82 7.31
US Inflation (%) 0.38 1.13 1.61 3.48 5.63 4.19 2.84 2.59 2.54 2.80
Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized.
DRAWDOWN
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -9.38 -24.26 -24.26 -24.26 -48.28 -48.28 -48.28
Start to Recovery (# months) details 5 27 27 27 42 42 42
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 08 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2007 11 2007 11 2007 11
Start to Bottom (# months) 3 9 9 9 16 16 16
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2009 02 2009 02 2009 02
Bottom to End (# months) 2 18 18 18 26 26 26
End (yyyy mm) 2023 12 2024 03 2024 03 2024 03 2011 04 2011 04 2011 04
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same as
deepest
same as
deepest
same as
deepest
same as
deepest
same as
deepest
same as
deepest
same as
deepest
Start to Recovery (# months) details
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 08 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2007 11 2007 11 2007 11
Start to Bottom (# months) 3 9 9 9 16 16 16
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2009 02 2009 02 2009 02
Bottom to End (# months) 2 18 18 18 26 26 26
End (yyyy mm) 2023 12 2024 03 2024 03 2024 03 2011 04 2011 04 2011 04
Longest negative period (# months) details 7 31 34 34 60 63 63
Period Start (yyyy mm) 2023 04 2021 04 2021 01 2021 01 2004 04 2003 12 2003 12
Period End (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2009 03 2009 02 2009 02
Annualized Return (%) -4.16 -2.21 -0.62 -0.62 -0.56 -0.22 -0.22
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -10.23 -28.81 -28.81 -28.81 -49.13 -49.13 -49.13
Start to Recovery (# months) details 5 31* 31* 31* 63 63 63
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 08 2021 09 2021 09 2021 09 2007 11 2007 11 2007 11
Start to Bottom (# months) 3 13 13 13 16 16 16
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2009 02 2009 02 2009 02
Bottom to End (# months) 2 18 18 18 47 47 47
End (yyyy mm) 2023 12 - - - 2013 01 2013 01 2013 01
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same as
deepest
same as
deepest
same as
deepest
same as
deepest
same as
deepest
same as
deepest
same as
deepest
Start to Recovery (# months) details
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 08 2021 09 2021 09 2021 09 2007 11 2007 11 2007 11
Start to Bottom (# months) 3 13 13 13 16 16 16
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2009 02 2009 02 2009 02
Bottom to End (# months) 2 18 18 18 47 47 47
End (yyyy mm) 2023 12 - - - 2013 01 2013 01 2013 01
Longest negative period (# months) details 7 36* 54 69 69 131 131
Period Start (yyyy mm) 2023 04 2021 04 2019 05 2018 02 2018 02 1998 04 1998 04
Period End (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2024 03 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2009 02 2009 02
Annualized Return (%) -7.23 -1.46 -0.05 -0.18 -0.18 -0.19 -0.19
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
RISK INDICATORS
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Standard Deviation (%) 12.78 14.96 15.51 12.83 14.05 13.55 13.70
Sharpe Ratio 0.89 0.11 0.40 0.48 0.46 0.46 0.46
Sortino Ratio 1.28 0.15 0.53 0.65 0.60 0.60 0.60
Ulcer Index 3.44 10.82 9.12 7.01 10.88 9.83 9.07
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 1.30 0.27 0.52 0.58 0.56 0.63 0.75
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 1.77 0.17 0.33 0.31 0.16 0.18 0.21
% Positive Months details 58% 55% 60% 62% 63% 64% 65%
Positive Months 7 20 36 75 153 231 307
Negative Months 5 16 24 45 87 129 164
LONG TERM RETURNS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 7.42 12.91 12.91 15.78
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 5.07 2.84 2.84
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 4.46 10.95 10.95 12.26
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 3.08 0.25 0.25
ROLLING PERIODS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Over the latest 30Y
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 57.14 25.05 19.97 12.91 9.44 8.50
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -41.31 -11.83 -1.97 2.84 6.06
% Positive Periods 77% 87% 99% 100% 100% 100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 73.13 25.05 16.12 9.51 6.73 7.55
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - 0.31 3.64 6.16
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 53.83 22.13 17.13 10.95 7.04 5.82
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -41.31 -13.71 -4.49 0.25 3.90
% Positive Periods 72% 82% 93% 100% 100% 100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 73.13 25.05 16.12 9.51 6.73 7.55
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - 0.31 3.64 6.16
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Over all the available data source (Jan 1985 - Mar 2024)
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 57.14 25.05 20.20 15.78 13.03 11.23
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -41.31 -11.83 -1.97 2.84 6.06 7.78
% Positive Periods 78% 90% 99% 100% 100% 100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 73.13 25.05 16.12 9.51 6.73 6.81
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - 0.31 3.64 5.37
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 53.83 22.13 17.13 12.26 9.70 8.28
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -41.31 -13.71 -4.49 0.25 3.90 5.13
% Positive Periods 74% 86% 95% 100% 100% 100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 73.13 25.05 16.12 9.51 6.73 6.81
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - 0.31 3.64 5.37
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Terms and Definitions
  • Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio.
  • Deepest/Longest Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. The deepest (or maximum) drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained. The longest drawdown is the period observed from a peak to the subsequent peak with the greatest duration.
  • Longest negative period: it's the maximum period for which an overall negative return has been observed.
  • Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean.
  • Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return.
  • Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation).
  • Ulcer Index: it's a measure of downside risk that quantifies the depth and duration of drawdowns in an investment portfolio.
  • Best/Worst 10Y returns: the best and the worst 10-year return over a time frame.
  • Rolling Returns: N-year returns over a time frame, calculated over all the available data source (best, worst, % of positive returns). Each rolling period, longer than the longest negative period, yielded a non-negative minimum return.
  • Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money in any case (money amount withdrawal).
    For instance: Your initial invested capital is 100.000$; withdrawal rate (annualized) is 4%. This means that, in the first month, you will withdraw 100.000 * 4% * 1/12 = 333.33$. The second month, you’ll withdraw 333.33$ plus the inflation monthly rate. You’ll continue adjusting your withdraw monthly for inflation.
  • Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too.

Portfolio Components Correlation

Correlation measures to what degree the returns of the two assets move in relation to each other.

Correlation coefficient is a numerical value between -1 and +1. If one variable goes up by a certain amount, the correlation coefficient indicates which way the other variable moves and by how much.
Asset correlations are calculated based on monthly returns.
COMPONENTS MONTHLY CORRELATIONS
Monthly correlations as of 31 March 2024
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If you want to learn more about historical correlations, you can find out here how the main asset class are correlated to each other.

Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

BURTON MALKIEL LATE THIRTIES TO EARLY FORTIES PORTFOLIO
Drawdown periods
Drawdown periods - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 April 1994 - 31 March 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1985 - 31 March 2024 (~39 years)
Inflation Adjusted:
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Rolling Returns

( more details)

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

BURTON MALKIEL LATE THIRTIES TO EARLY FORTIES PORTFOLIO
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 April 1994 - 31 March 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1985 - 31 March 2024 (~39 years)
Inflation Adjusted:

If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Burton Malkiel Late Thirties to Early Forties Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.

Seasonality

In which months is it better to invest in Burton Malkiel Late Thirties to Early Forties Portfolio?

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.
For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
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Monthly Returns

This section provides a visual/tabular representation of the performance variability in the Burton Malkiel Late Thirties to Early Forties Portfolio over time. It illustrates the distribution of monthly returns, showcasing the range and frequency of positive and negative returns.

BURTON MALKIEL LATE THIRTIES TO EARLY FORTIES PORTFOLIO
Monthly Returns Distribution
Data Source: 1 April 1994 - 31 March 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1985 - 31 March 2024 (~39 years)
231 Positive Months (64%) - 129 Negative Months (36%)
307 Positive Months (65%) - 164 Negative Months (35%)
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(Scroll down to see all data)
Investment Returns, up to December 2007, have been derived using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.
You can find additional information on extended Data Sources here.

In particular, the series derived from equivalent datasets are:
  • VTI - Vanguard Total Stock Market (VTI), up to December 2001
  • EEM - iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM), up to December 2003
  • EFA - iShares MSCI EAFE (EFA), up to December 2001
  • VIG - Vanguard Dividend Appreciation (VIG), up to December 2006
  • VNQ - Vanguard Real Estate (VNQ), up to December 2004
  • BIL - SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill (BIL), up to December 2007
  • EMB - iShares JP Morgan USD Em Mkts Bd (EMB), up to December 2007
  • LQD - iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD), up to December 2002

Portfolio efficiency

The following portfolios granted a higher return over 30 Years and a less severe drawdown at the same time.

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In the following table, you can compare the current portfolio with a list of famous portfolios. Metrics are calculated over the last 30 Years.

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