Consolidated Returns as of 28 February 2023
Live Update: Mar 20 2023, 04:00PM Eastern Time
The Bogleheads Three Funds Portfolio is a Very High Risk portfolio and can be implemented with 3 ETFs.
It's exposed for 80% on the Stock Market.
In the last 30 Years, the Bogleheads Three Funds Portfolio obtained a 7.73% compound annual return, with a 12.29% standard deviation.
Asset Allocation and ETFs
The Bogleheads Three Funds Portfolio has the following asset allocation:
The Bogleheads Three Funds Portfolio can be implemented with the following ETFs:
Weight | Ticker | ETF Name | Investment Themes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
50.00 % | VTI | Vanguard Total Stock Market | Equity, U.S., Large Cap | |
30.00 % | VEU | Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US | Equity, Global ex-US, Large Cap | |
20.00 % | BND | Vanguard Total Bond Market | Bond, U.S., All-Term |
Portfolio and ETF Returns as of Feb 28, 2023
The Bogleheads Three Funds Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.
- No fees or capital gain taxes
- a rebalancing of the components at the beginning of each year (at every January 1st). How do returns change with different rebalancing strategies?
- the reinvestment of dividends
Chg (%) | Return (%) | Return (%) as of Feb 28, 2023 |
||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 Day | Time ET(*) | Mar 2023 | 1M | 6M | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | 30Y |
MAX
(~53Y) |
|
Bogleheads Three Funds Portfolio | 0.65 | -0.77 | -3.10 | 2.42 | -8.31 | 5.50 | 7.55 | 7.73 | 9.36 | |
US Inflation Adjusted return | -3.64 | 0.83 | -13.52 | 1.59 | 4.80 | 5.09 | 5.17 | |||
Components | ||||||||||
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market |
0.87 |
04:00PM Mar 20 2023 |
-1.32 | -2.40 | 1.41 | -8.31 | 9.34 | 11.82 | 9.64 | 9.03 |
VEU Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US |
1.01 |
04:00PM Mar 20 2023 |
-1.77 | -4.39 | 7.42 | -7.28 | 1.97 | 4.24 | 5.50 | 8.03 |
BND Vanguard Total Bond Market |
-0.43 |
04:00PM Mar 20 2023 |
2.08 | -2.90 | -2.30 | -9.97 | 0.49 | 1.05 | 4.25 | 4.49 |
US Inflation is updated to Feb 2023. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 6.04% , 5Y: 3.86% , 10Y: 2.63% , 30Y: 2.51%
Portfolio Metrics as of Feb 28, 2023
Metrics of Bogleheads Three Funds Portfolio, updated as of 28 February 2023.
- No fees or capital gain taxes
- a rebalancing of the components at the beginning of each year (at every January 1st). How do returns change with different rebalancing strategies?
- the reinvestment of dividends
Metrics as of Feb 28, 2023 | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | 20Y | 30Y |
MAX
(~53Y) |
|
Portfolio Return (%) |
-3.10 | -0.43 | 2.42 | -8.31 | 6.66 | 5.50 | 7.55 | 8.39 | 7.73 | 9.36 |
US Inflation (%) | 0.56 | 1.05 | 1.58 | 6.04 | 5.16 | 3.86 | 2.63 | 2.51 | 2.51 | 3.98 |
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) |
-3.64 | -1.47 | 0.83 | -13.52 | 1.42 | 1.59 | 4.80 | 5.73 | 5.09 | 5.17 |
Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized. | ||||||||||
RISK INDICATORS | ||||||||||
Standard Deviation (%) | 18.86 | 16.67 | 14.74 | 11.92 | 12.55 | 12.29 | 12.60 | |||
Sharpe Ratio | -0.55 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 0.58 | 0.58 | 0.45 | 0.43 | |||
Sortino Ratio | -0.80 | 0.48 | 0.39 | 0.77 | 0.76 | 0.59 | 0.57 | |||
MAXIMUM DRAWDOWN | ||||||||||
Drawdown Depth (%) | -18.60 | -23.18 | -23.18 | -23.18 | -43.68 | -43.68 | -43.68 | |||
Start (yyyy mm) | 2022 04 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 2007 11 | 2007 11 | 2007 11 | |||
Bottom (yyyy mm) | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2009 02 | 2009 02 | 2009 02 | |||
Start to Bottom (# months) | 6 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 16 | 16 | |||
Start to Recovery (# months) in progress |
> 11
|
> 14
|
> 14
|
> 14
|
42
|
42
|
42
|
|||
ROLLING PERIOD RETURNS - Annualized | ||||||||||
Best Return (%) | 53.63 | 35.11 | 29.05 | 18.74 | 15.10 | 13.08 | ||||
Worst Return (%) | -37.11 | -12.10 | -2.39 | 0.39 | 4.66 | 7.41 | ||||
% Positive Periods | 81% | 89% | 99% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||||
MONTHS | ||||||||||
Positive | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 22 | 38 | 80 | 157 | 229 | 405 |
Negative | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 22 | 40 | 83 | 131 | 233 |
% Positive | 0% | 33% | 50% | 50% | 61% | 63% | 67% | 65% | 64% | 63% |
WITHDRAWAL RATES (WR) | ||||||||||
Safe WR (%) | 39.36 | 22.67 | 14.36 | 10.02 | 7.60 | 5.03 | ||||
Perpetual WR (%) | 1.40 | 1.56 | 4.58 | 5.42 | 4.85 | 4.91 |
- Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio
- Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean
- Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return.
- Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation).
- Maximum Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.
- Rolling Returns: returns over a time frame (best, worst, % of positive returns).
- Pos./Neg. Months: number of months with positive/negative return.
- Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the original portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money (dollar amount withdrawal).
- Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year, while retaining the inflation adjusted portfolio balance (percentage withdrawal).
Portfolio Components Correlation
Correlation measures to what degree the returns of the two assets move in relation to each other.
If one variable goes up by a certain amount, the correlation coefficient indicates which way the other variable moves and by how much.
Asset correlations are calculated based on monthly returns.
|
|
|
||
---|---|---|---|---|
Asset | VTI | VEU | BND | |
VTI |
1.00
|
0.84
|
0.72
|
|
VEU |
0.84
|
1.00
|
0.89
|
|
BND |
0.72
|
0.89
|
1.00
|
|
|
|
||
---|---|---|---|---|
Asset | VTI | VEU | BND | |
VTI |
1.00
|
0.88
|
0.44
|
|
VEU |
0.88
|
1.00
|
0.49
|
|
BND |
0.44
|
0.49
|
1.00
|
|
|
|
||
---|---|---|---|---|
Asset | VTI | VEU | BND | |
VTI |
1.00
|
0.85
|
0.33
|
|
VEU |
0.85
|
1.00
|
0.40
|
|
BND |
0.33
|
0.40
|
1.00
|
|
|
|
||
---|---|---|---|---|
Asset | VTI | VEU | BND | |
VTI |
1.00
|
0.82
|
0.14
|
|
VEU |
0.82
|
1.00
|
0.15
|
|
BND |
0.14
|
0.15
|
1.00
|
|
|
|
||
---|---|---|---|---|
Asset | VTI | VEU | BND | |
VTI |
1.00
|
0.79
|
0.22
|
|
VEU |
0.79
|
1.00
|
0.19
|
|
BND |
0.22
|
0.19
|
1.00
|
Portfolio Dividends
In 2022, the Bogleheads Three Funds Portfolio granted a 1.89% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Bogleheads Three Funds Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.
Capital Growth as of Feb 28, 2023
The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 4437.53$, with a net total return of 343.75% (5.09% annualized).
The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 14575.76$, with a net total return of 1357.58% (5.17% annualized).
Drawdowns
Drawdown period |
Recovery period |
Total |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Drawdown | Start | Bottom | #Months | End | #Months | #Months |
-43.68% | Nov 2007 | Feb 2009 | 16 | Apr 2011 | 26 | 42 |
-33.38% | Apr 2000 | Sep 2002 | 30 | Dec 2004 | 27 | 57 |
-23.18% | Jan 2022 | Sep 2022 | 9 | in progress | 5 | 14 |
-17.01% | Jan 2020 | Mar 2020 | 3 | Jul 2020 | 4 | 7 |
-15.77% | May 2011 | Sep 2011 | 5 | Sep 2012 | 12 | 17 |
-12.46% | Jul 1998 | Aug 1998 | 2 | Nov 1998 | 3 | 5 |
-10.53% | Feb 2018 | Dec 2018 | 11 | Apr 2019 | 4 | 15 |
-9.88% | Jun 2015 | Feb 2016 | 9 | Jul 2016 | 5 | 14 |
-4.84% | Feb 1994 | Mar 1994 | 2 | Aug 1994 | 5 | 7 |
-4.68% | May 2019 | May 2019 | 1 | Jun 2019 | 1 | 2 |
-4.61% | Aug 1997 | Aug 1997 | 1 | Sep 1997 | 1 | 2 |
-4.16% | Nov 1993 | Nov 1993 | 1 | Jan 1994 | 2 | 3 |
-4.11% | Oct 1997 | Oct 1997 | 1 | Jan 1998 | 3 | 4 |
-4.06% | Sep 1994 | Nov 1994 | 3 | Mar 1995 | 4 | 7 |
-3.99% | Jan 2000 | Jan 2000 | 1 | Mar 2000 | 2 | 3 |
-3.98% | Sep 2020 | Oct 2020 | 2 | Nov 2020 | 1 | 3 |
-3.77% | Jun 1996 | Jul 1996 | 2 | Sep 1996 | 2 | 4 |
-3.53% | Sep 2021 | Sep 2021 | 1 | Oct 2021 | 1 | 2 |
-3.34% | Mar 2005 | Apr 2005 | 2 | Jul 2005 | 3 | 5 |
-3.08% | May 2006 | Jun 2006 | 2 | Sep 2006 | 3 | 5 |
Drawdown period |
Recovery period |
Total |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Drawdown | Start | Bottom | #Months | End | #Months | #Months |
-43.68% | Nov 2007 | Feb 2009 | 16 | Apr 2011 | 26 | 42 |
-34.07% | Jan 1973 | Sep 1974 | 21 | Jan 1976 | 16 | 37 |
-33.38% | Apr 2000 | Sep 2002 | 30 | Dec 2004 | 27 | 57 |
-23.18% | Jan 2022 | Sep 2022 | 9 | in progress | 5 | 14 |
-19.21% | Sep 1987 | Nov 1987 | 3 | Jan 1989 | 14 | 17 |
-17.24% | Jan 1970 | Jun 1970 | 6 | Dec 1970 | 6 | 12 |
-17.01% | Jan 2020 | Mar 2020 | 3 | Jul 2020 | 4 | 7 |
-15.77% | May 2011 | Sep 2011 | 5 | Sep 2012 | 12 | 17 |
-15.31% | Jan 1990 | Sep 1990 | 9 | Feb 1991 | 5 | 14 |
-14.03% | Dec 1980 | Jul 1982 | 20 | Oct 1982 | 3 | 23 |
-12.46% | Jul 1998 | Aug 1998 | 2 | Nov 1998 | 3 | 5 |
-10.53% | Feb 2018 | Dec 2018 | 11 | Apr 2019 | 4 | 15 |
-10.43% | Feb 1980 | Mar 1980 | 2 | Jun 1980 | 3 | 5 |
-9.88% | Jun 2015 | Feb 2016 | 9 | Jul 2016 | 5 | 14 |
-8.16% | Dec 1983 | May 1984 | 6 | Aug 1984 | 3 | 9 |
-7.76% | Oct 1978 | Oct 1978 | 1 | Jan 1979 | 3 | 4 |
-7.03% | Oct 1979 | Oct 1979 | 1 | Dec 1979 | 2 | 3 |
-5.15% | May 1971 | Jul 1971 | 3 | Dec 1971 | 5 | 8 |
-4.89% | Sep 1986 | Oct 1986 | 2 | Jan 1987 | 3 | 5 |
-4.84% | Feb 1994 | Mar 1994 | 2 | Aug 1994 | 5 | 7 |
Rolling Returns ( more details)
Bogleheads Three Funds Portfolio: annualized rolling and average returns
Rolling Period |
Return (*) | Negative Periods |
||
---|---|---|---|---|
Average (%) | Best (%) | Worst (%) | ||
1 Year |
10.60 |
53.63 Jul 1982 - Jun 1983 |
-37.11 Mar 2008 - Feb 2009 |
19.30% |
2 Years |
10.22 |
38.80 Oct 1985 - Sep 1987 |
-20.26 Mar 2007 - Feb 2009 |
12.36% |
3 Years |
9.94 |
35.11 Aug 1984 - Jul 1987 |
-12.10 Apr 2000 - Mar 2003 |
10.61% |
5 Years |
9.92 |
29.05 Aug 1982 - Jul 1987 |
-2.39 Mar 2004 - Feb 2009 |
1.38% |
7 Years |
9.99 |
23.27 Aug 1982 - Jul 1989 |
0.64 Mar 2002 - Feb 2009 |
0.00% |
10 Years |
10.11 |
18.74 Sep 1977 - Aug 1987 |
0.39 Mar 1999 - Feb 2009 |
0.00% |
15 Years |
10.11 |
17.18 Oct 1974 - Sep 1989 |
4.53 Mar 1994 - Feb 2009 |
0.00% |
20 Years |
10.00 |
15.10 Apr 1980 - Mar 2000 |
4.66 Apr 2000 - Mar 2020 |
0.00% |
30 Years |
9.98 |
13.08 Jul 1970 - Jun 2000 |
7.41 Apr 1990 - Mar 2020 |
0.00% |
If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Bogleheads Three Funds Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.
Seasonality
In which months is it better to invest in Bogleheads Three Funds Portfolio?
For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Return (%) | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
Average Gain Frequency |
1.69
40% |
-1.38
40% |
-1.62
60% |
1.63
80% |
0.41
80% |
0.48
60% |
2.75
100% |
0.55
60% |
-2.48
40% |
0.62
60% |
3.76
80% |
0.05
60% |
Capital Growth on monthly avg returns | ||||||||||||
100
|
101.69
|
100.28
|
98.66
|
100.26
|
100.68
|
101.16
|
103.95
|
104.52
|
101.93
|
102.56
|
106.42
|
106.47
|
Best |
6.8 2019 |
2.3 2019 |
2.1 2021 |
8.8 2020 |
4.1 2020 |
5.6 2019 |
6.0 2022 |
4.6 2020 |
1.6 2019 |
4.7 2022 |
9.8 2020 |
4.1 2020 |
Worst |
-4.2 2022 |
-5.6 2020 |
-11.5 2020 |
-7.3 2022 |
-4.7 2019 |
-6.7 2022 |
0.2 2019 |
-3.7 2022 |
-8.3 2022 |
-6.4 2018 |
-2.0 2021 |
-5.8 2018 |
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Return (%) | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
Average Gain Frequency |
0.65
40% |
-0.04
50% |
0.06
70% |
1.49
90% |
0.63
80% |
0.12
60% |
2.31
90% |
-0.18
60% |
-1.08
50% |
1.39
70% |
2.43
80% |
0.21
60% |
Capital Growth on monthly avg returns | ||||||||||||
100
|
100.65
|
100.62
|
100.68
|
102.19
|
102.83
|
102.95
|
105.33
|
105.15
|
104.01
|
105.46
|
108.02
|
108.25
|
Best |
6.8 2019 |
4.3 2015 |
6.1 2016 |
8.8 2020 |
4.1 2020 |
5.6 2019 |
6.0 2022 |
4.6 2020 |
4.4 2013 |
5.9 2015 |
9.8 2020 |
4.1 2020 |
Worst |
-4.3 2016 |
-5.6 2020 |
-11.5 2020 |
-7.3 2022 |
-4.7 2019 |
-6.7 2022 |
-1.5 2014 |
-5.5 2015 |
-8.3 2022 |
-6.4 2018 |
-2.0 2021 |
-5.8 2018 |
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Return (%) | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
Average Gain Frequency |
0.99
59% |
0.49
54% |
0.90
66% |
1.47
77% |
0.51
60% |
0.40
51% |
0.90
60% |
0.38
60% |
-0.33
62% |
0.77
60% |
1.67
74% |
1.62
77% |
Capital Growth on monthly avg returns | ||||||||||||
100
|
100.99
|
101.49
|
102.40
|
103.91
|
104.44
|
104.86
|
105.80
|
106.21
|
105.85
|
106.67
|
108.45
|
110.21
|
Best |
10.7 1975 |
7.3 1986 |
7.5 1986 |
9.3 2009 |
8.2 1990 |
5.6 2019 |
7.7 1989 |
10.3 1982 |
7.7 2010 |
12.9 1974 |
9.8 2020 |
7.3 1971 |
Worst |
-8.3 2009 |
-8.0 2009 |
-11.5 2020 |
-8.4 1970 |
-7.0 2010 |
-6.7 2022 |
-6.9 2002 |
-11.8 1998 |
-8.3 2022 |
-15.3 2008 |
-8.7 1973 |
-5.8 2018 |
Monthly/Yearly Returns
Bogleheads Three Funds Portfolio data source starts from January 1970: let's focus on monthly and yearly returns.
- Histogram: it shows the distribution of the returns recorded so far
- Plain Table: it shows the detailed monthly and yearly returns
Yearly Return(%) |
Monthly Return(%) |
|||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Total | Infl.Adj | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
2023 |
+3.42 | +2.03 | 6.7 | -3.1 | ||||||||||
2022 |
-17.06 | -22.09 | -4.2 | -2.4 | 0.9 | -7.3 | 0.5 | -6.7 | 6.0 | -3.7 | -8.3 | 4.7 | 7.1 | -3.7 |
2021 |
+14.95 | +7.39 | -0.2 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 1.9 | -3.5 | 4.3 | -2.0 | 3.0 |
2020 |
+15.39 | +13.84 | -0.7 | -5.6 | -11.5 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 4.3 | 4.6 | -2.3 | -1.7 | 9.8 | 4.1 |
2019 |
+23.65 | +20.89 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 2.9 | -4.7 | 5.6 | 0.2 | -1.3 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.7 |
2018 |
-6.89 | -8.63 | 4.1 | -3.7 | -1.0 | 0.2 | 0.9 | -0.3 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.1 | -6.4 | 1.6 | -5.8 |
2017 |
+19.54 | +17.07 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.3 |
2016 |
+8.39 | +6.19 | -4.3 | -0.5 | 6.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 3.4 | 0.2 | 0.6 | -1.8 | 1.1 | 1.7 |
2015 |
-1.14 | -1.86 | -0.9 | 4.3 | -0.9 | 1.7 | 0.2 | -1.9 | 0.9 | -5.5 | -2.5 | 5.9 | -0.2 | -1.9 |
2014 |
+6.07 | +5.28 | -3.0 | 4.2 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 1.8 | 1.8 | -1.5 | 2.6 | -2.6 | 1.6 | 1.4 | -1.1 |
2013 |
+20.56 | +18.78 | 3.3 | 0.3 | 2.2 | 2.1 | -0.1 | -2.1 | 4.5 | -2.4 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 1.8 |
2012 |
+14.53 | +12.57 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 1.2 | -0.7 | -6.5 | 4.0 | 0.8 | 2.2 | 2.3 | -0.7 | 1.0 | 2.0 |
2011 |
-2.14 | -4.95 | 1.3 | 2.7 | 0.1 | 3.4 | -1.3 | -1.3 | -1.5 | -5.2 | -7.3 | 8.8 | -0.9 | 0.1 |
2010 |
+13.50 | +11.82 | -3.3 | 2.2 | 5.1 | 0.8 | -7.0 | -3.0 | 6.7 | -3.0 | 7.7 | 3.1 | -1.1 | 5.7 |
2009 |
+26.45 | +23.10 | -8.3 | -8.0 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 7.4 | -0.4 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 4.1 | -2.3 | 4.7 | 1.7 |
2008 |
-30.15 | -30.22 | -5.2 | -1.3 | -0.4 | 4.1 | 1.2 | -6.5 | -1.4 | -0.6 | -8.2 | -15.3 | -4.4 | 4.4 |
2007 |
+8.73 | +4.46 | 1.2 | -0.5 | 1.4 | 3.3 | 2.7 | -0.8 | -1.9 | 0.8 | 4.0 | 2.9 | -3.4 | -1.0 |
2006 |
+16.69 | +13.80 | 3.6 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 2.0 | -3.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 |
2005 |
+8.30 | +4.73 | -1.6 | 2.3 | -1.9 | -1.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 1.6 | -2.4 | 3.2 | 1.8 |
2004 |
+13.49 | +9.91 | 2.0 | 1.7 | -0.2 | -2.6 | 0.8 | 1.9 | -2.6 | 0.6 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 4.4 | 3.3 |
2003 |
+28.27 | +25.91 | -2.5 | -1.2 | -0.2 | 7.3 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 4.7 |
2002 |
-13.11 | -15.13 | -1.7 | -0.4 | 3.2 | -1.8 | -0.2 | -4.6 | -6.9 | 0.7 | -7.6 | 4.9 | 4.2 | -2.9 |
2001 |
-9.84 | -11.22 | 2.6 | -6.8 | -5.3 | 6.1 | -0.4 | -1.8 | -1.0 | -3.4 | -7.1 | 2.5 | 4.2 | 1.1 |
2000 |
-7.69 | -10.72 | -4.0 | 2.3 | 4.2 | -4.3 | -2.5 | 3.9 | -2.1 | 4.2 | -3.6 | -1.7 | -5.9 | 2.3 |
1999 |
+20.73 | +17.57 | 1.8 | -2.9 | 3.6 | 4.0 | -2.7 | 3.8 | -1.1 | -0.4 | -0.7 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 6.7 |
1998 |
+18.03 | +16.16 | 1.4 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 0.8 | -1.7 | 1.9 | -0.8 | -11.8 | 3.0 | 6.7 | 4.8 | 4.3 |
1997 |
+17.15 | +15.19 | 2.1 | 0.5 | -2.5 | 2.6 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 5.0 | -4.6 | 4.9 | -4.1 | 1.6 | 1.4 |
1996 |
+12.60 | +8.98 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | -0.1 | -3.7 | 1.5 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 4.8 | -1.4 |
1995 |
+22.72 | +19.69 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 3.6 | -0.1 | 2.6 | -1.0 | 3.2 | 2.1 |
1994 |
+2.31 | -0.35 | 4.8 | -1.3 | -3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | -0.7 | 2.0 | 2.7 | -2.1 | 1.6 | -3.6 | 1.1 |
1993 |
+16.23 | +13.12 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 2.7 | -0.4 | 1.4 | 3.8 | -1.0 | 1.3 | -4.2 | 3.0 |
1992 |
+1.54 | -1.32 | -1.0 | -0.3 | -3.4 | 0.7 | 2.6 | -2.0 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.1 | -1.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 |
1991 |
+22.09 | +18.46 | 3.2 | 6.9 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 2.1 | -4.3 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.7 | -3.4 | 7.3 |
1990 |
-8.74 | -14.00 | -5.0 | -1.0 | -1.7 | -2.4 | 8.2 | 0.0 | 0.3 | -7.7 | -6.2 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 2.2 |
1989 |
+20.64 | +15.29 | 4.2 | -0.9 | 0.4 | 3.2 | 1.1 | -0.2 | 7.7 | -0.2 | 1.4 | -2.1 | 2.3 | 2.2 |
1988 |
+17.83 | +12.84 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 0.9 | 1.0 | -1.0 | 2.0 | 0.1 | -3.2 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.9 |
1987 |
+10.76 | +6.06 | 10.2 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 4.6 | -1.8 | -15.1 | -3.1 | 4.2 |
1986 |
+29.32 | +27.92 | 1.2 | 7.3 | 7.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 3.6 | -0.5 | 6.1 | -4.6 | -0.3 | 2.8 | 0.5 |
1985 |
+35.27 | +30.32 | 7.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.2 | 0.2 | -2.3 | 4.2 | 6.1 | 4.3 |
1984 |
+4.95 | +0.96 | -0.6 | -3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | -5.0 | 2.0 | -0.7 | 9.0 | 0.3 | 0.9 | -0.6 | 2.1 |
1983 |
+19.49 | +15.12 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 6.5 | 0.1 | 3.2 | -3.0 | 0.8 | 1.8 | -1.8 | 2.5 | -0.6 |
1982 |
+16.05 | +11.77 | -2.3 | -4.3 | -1.2 | 3.5 | -2.5 | -2.7 | -1.3 | 10.3 | 1.7 | 10.0 | 3.8 | 1.3 |
1981 |
-1.38 | -9.46 | -3.3 | 0.9 | 3.9 | -1.7 | 1.5 | -0.7 | -0.6 | -4.7 | -4.5 | 5.9 | 5.4 | -2.8 |
1980 |
+24.15 | +10.34 | 4.4 | -1.4 | -9.1 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 0.4 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 8.8 | -2.6 |
1979 |
+15.99 | +2.38 | 3.9 | -2.5 | 5.0 | 0.3 | -1.0 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 4.9 | 0.0 | -7.0 | 5.5 | 2.0 |
1978 |
+13.84 | +4.42 | -4.0 | -0.3 | 3.1 | 7.2 | 2.1 | -0.4 | 5.2 | 3.8 | 0.1 | -7.8 | 3.3 | 1.7 |
1977 |
+3.33 | -3.16 | -3.2 | -0.6 | -0.1 | 1.0 | -0.2 | 4.6 | -0.6 | -0.3 | 0.6 | -2.6 | 3.8 | 1.1 |
1976 |
+16.66 | +11.25 | 9.6 | -0.3 | 1.9 | -1.2 | -1.5 | 3.7 | -0.8 | -0.2 | 1.8 | -2.0 | 0.6 | 4.5 |
1975 |
+29.64 | +21.24 | 10.7 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 3.6 | 5.0 | 4.2 | -5.6 | -1.9 | -3.3 | 5.5 | 2.5 | -0.7 |
1974 |
-18.66 | -27.59 | 0.0 | 0.3 | -2.1 | -3.6 | -2.3 | -1.5 | -5.5 | -6.4 | -7.4 | 12.9 | -2.2 | -1.2 |
1973 |
-11.64 | -18.72 | -1.9 | -3.3 | -0.3 | -3.5 | -1.3 | -0.5 | 3.4 | -1.5 | 4.6 | 0.1 | -8.7 | 1.2 |
1972 |
+21.03 | +17.05 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 2.0 | -1.2 | 0.4 | 3.3 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 4.5 | 1.4 |
1971 |
+20.20 | +16.40 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 4.6 | 2.9 | -3.0 | 0.4 | -2.7 | 4.4 | 0.6 | -2.3 | 0.5 | 7.3 |
1970 |
+1.50 | -3.86 | -6.0 | 5.4 | -0.3 | -8.4 | -5.1 | -3.6 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 3.0 | -1.2 | 5.3 | 4.5 |
Portofolio Returns, up to December 2007, are simulated. They have been calculated using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.
In particular, it has been used:
- VTI - Vanguard Total Stock Market: simulated historical serie, up to December 2001
- VEU - Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
- BND - Vanguard Total Bond Market: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
Portfolio efficiency
Compared to the Bogleheads Three Funds Portfolio, the following portfolios granted a higher return over 30 Years and a less severe drawdown at the same time.
30 Years Stats (%) |
% Allocation |
|||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Portfolio | Return▾ | Dev.Std | Drawdown | Stocks | Bonds | Comm | ||
Stocks/Bonds 80/20 Momentum |
+10.78 | 12.19 | -43.61 | 80 | 20 | 0 | ||
US Stocks Minimum Volatility |
+9.51 | 13.66 | -43.27 | 100 | 0 | 0 | ||
Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Momentum |
+9.38 | 9.41 | -32.52 | 60 | 40 | 0 | ||
Stocks/Bonds 80/20 |
+8.84 | 12.34 | -41.09 | 80 | 20 | 0 | ||
Simple Path to Wealth JL Collins |
+8.61 | 11.61 | -38.53 | 75 | 25 | 0 | ||
Late Sixties and Beyond Burton Malkiel |
+8.34 | 11.59 | -41.80 | 71 | 29 | 0 | ||
Yale Endowment David Swensen |
+8.23 | 10.84 | -39.48 | 70 | 30 | 0 | ||
Seven Value Scott Burns |
+8.14 | 11.26 | -41.22 | 71.5 | 28.5 | 0 | ||
Talmud Portfolio Roger Gibson |
+8.06 | 10.67 | -40.17 | 66.7 | 33.3 | 0 | ||
Sheltered Sam 70/30 Bill Bernstein |
+7.95 | 10.60 | -39.73 | 67.9 | 30 | 2.1 | ||
Family Taxable Portfolio Ted Aronson |
+7.94 | 11.56 | -38.46 | 70 | 30 | 0 | ||
Six Ways from Sunday Scott Burns |
+7.90 | 10.87 | -39.14 | 66.7 | 33.3 | 0 | ||
Stocks/Bonds 60/40 |
+7.88 | 9.46 | -30.55 | 60 | 40 | 0 | ||
Lazy Portfolio David Swensen |
+7.88 | 10.78 | -40.89 | 70 | 30 | 0 | ||
Edge Select Moderately Aggressive Merrill Lynch |
+7.86 | 11.04 | -38.23 | 69 | 31 | 0 | ||
Couch Potato Scott Burns |
+7.85 | 8.66 | -27.04 | 50 | 50 | 0 | ||
Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Momentum |
+7.82 | 6.84 | -21.11 | 40 | 60 | 0 | ||
Gone Fishin' Portfolio Alexander Green |
+7.77 | 12.03 | -43.02 | 65 | 30 | 5 | ||
Jane Bryant Quinn Portfolio Jane Bryant Quinn |
+7.75 | 10.66 | -39.55 | 70 | 30 | 0 | ||
Three Funds Bogleheads |
+7.73 | 12.29 | -43.68 | 80 | 20 | 0 |
Here's a list containing the Best Classic Portfolios, with the highest returns over 30 Years and Very High Risk categorization.
30 Years Stats (%) |
% Allocation |
|||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Portfolio | Return▾ | Dev.Std | Drawdown | Stocks | Bonds | Comm | ||
Technology |
+13.03 | 23.91 | -81.08 | 100 | 0 | 0 | ||
US Stocks Momentum |
+11.99 | 15.12 | -53.85 | 100 | 0 | 0 | ||
Stocks/Bonds 80/20 Momentum |
+10.78 | 12.19 | -43.61 | 80 | 20 | 0 | ||
US Stocks |
+9.64 | 15.38 | -50.84 | 100 | 0 | 0 | ||
US Stocks Value |
+9.57 | 15.20 | -55.41 | 100 | 0 | 0 |