Bogleheads Three Funds Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns

Last Update: 31 January 2020

The Bogleheads Three Funds Portfolio is exposed for 80% on the Stock Market.

It's a Very High Risk portfolio and it can be replicated with 3 ETFs.

In the last 10 years, the portfolio obtained a 9.43% compound annual return, with a 10.36% standard deviation.

Asset Allocation and ETFs

The Bogleheads Three Funds Portfolio has the following asset allocation:

        80% Stocks
      
        20% Fixed Income
      
        0% Commodities

The Bogleheads Three Funds Portfolio can be replicated with the following ETFs:

Weight	Ticker	ETF Name	Investment Themes
50.00 %	VTI	Vanguard Total Stock Market	Equity, U.S., Large Cap
30.00 %	VEU	Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US	Equity, Global ex-US, Large Cap
20.00 %	BND	Vanguard Total Bond Market	Bond, U.S., All-Term

Historical Returns

Bogleheads Three Funds Portfolio - Historical returns and stats.

Returns, capital growth, stats are calculated assuming a rebalancing of the portfolio at the beginning of each year (i.e. at every January 1st).

BOGLEHEADS THREE FUNDS PORTFOLIO

Last Update: 31 January 2020

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Period	Returns Jan 2020	Standard Deviation *	Max Drawdown	Months Pos - Neg
1M	-0.66%		-0.66% Jan 2020 - Jan 2020	0 - 1
3M	+4.32%		-0.66% Jan 2020 - Jan 2020	2 - 1
6M	+6.91%		-1.29% Aug 2019 - Aug 2019	4 - 2
YTD	-0.66%		-0.66% Jan 2020 - Jan 2020	0 - 1
1Y	+15.06%	8.54%	-4.68% May 2019 - May 2019	9 - 3
3Y	+10.18% annualized	9.21%	-10.54% Feb 2018 - Dec 2018	28 - 8
5Y	+8.13% annualized	9.32%	-10.54% Feb 2018 - Dec 2018	43 - 17
10Y	+9.43% annualized	10.36%	-15.77% May 2011 - Sep 2011	82 - 38
MAX 01 Jan 1987	+8.50% annualized	11.85%	-43.68% Nov 2007 - Feb 2009	258 - 139

* Annualized St.Dev. of monthly returns

Best Very High Risk Porftolios, ordered by 10Y annualized return.

Portfolio	10Y Return ▾	#ETF	Stocks	Bonds
Technology	+18.98%	1	100	0
US Stocks	+13.83%	1	100	0
Warren Buffett	+12.70%	2	90	10
Second Grader's Starter Paul Farrell	+10.41%	3	90	10
Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Paul Merriman	+9.99%	10	100	0

See all portfolios

Capital Growth

Time Range:

Drawdowns

Time Range:

Worst drawdowns since January 2010.

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	Drawdown period			Recovery period		Total
Drawdown	Start	Bottom	#Months	End	#Months	#Months
-15.77%	May 2011	Sep 2011	5	Sep 2012	12	17
-10.54%	Feb 2018	Dec 2018	11	Apr 2019	4	15
-9.89%	Jun 2015	Feb 2016	9	Jul 2016	5	14
-9.83%	May 2010	Jun 2010	2	Sep 2010	3	5
-4.68%	May 2019	May 2019	1	Jun 2019	1	2
-3.01%	Jan 2014	Jan 2014	1	Feb 2014	1	2
-2.62%	Sep 2014	Sep 2014	1	Nov 2014	2	3
-2.36%	Aug 2013	Aug 2013	1	Sep 2013	1	2
-2.13%	May 2013	Jun 2013	2	Jul 2013	1	3
-1.99%	Dec 2014	Jan 2015	2	Feb 2015	1	3
-1.80%	Oct 2016	Oct 2016	1	Dec 2016	2	3
-1.50%	Jul 2014	Jul 2014	1	Aug 2014	1	2
-1.29%	Aug 2019	Aug 2019	1	Sep 2019	1	2
-1.10%	Nov 2010	Nov 2010	1	Dec 2010	1	2
-0.90%	Mar 2015	Mar 2015	1	Apr 2015	1	2
-0.73%	Oct 2012	Oct 2012	1	Nov 2012	1	2
-0.66%	Jan 2020	Jan 2020	1	in progress	0	1

Worst drawdowns since December 1986.

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	Drawdown period			Recovery period		Total
Drawdown	Start	Bottom	#Months	End	#Months	#Months
-43.68%	Nov 2007	Feb 2009	16	Apr 2011	26	42
-33.38%	Apr 2000	Sep 2002	30	Dec 2004	27	57
-19.21%	Sep 1987	Nov 1987	3	Jan 1989	14	17
-15.77%	May 2011	Sep 2011	5	Sep 2012	12	17
-15.31%	Jan 1990	Sep 1990	9	Feb 1991	5	14
-12.47%	Jul 1998	Aug 1998	2	Nov 1998	3	5
-10.54%	Feb 2018	Dec 2018	11	Apr 2019	4	15
-9.89%	Jun 2015	Feb 2016	9	Jul 2016	5	14
-4.83%	Feb 1994	Mar 1994	2	Aug 1994	5	7
-4.68%	May 2019	May 2019	1	Jun 2019	1	2
-4.66%	Jan 1992	Mar 1992	3	Nov 1992	8	11
-4.61%	Aug 1997	Aug 1997	1	Sep 1997	1	2
-4.27%	Jun 1991	Jun 1991	1	Aug 1991	2	3
-4.16%	Nov 1993	Nov 1993	1	Jan 1994	2	3
-4.11%	Oct 1997	Oct 1997	1	Jan 1998	3	4
-4.06%	Sep 1994	Nov 1994	3	Mar 1995	4	7
-3.99%	Jan 2000	Jan 2000	1	Mar 2000	2	3
-3.77%	Jun 1996	Jul 1996	2	Sep 1996	2	4
-3.37%	Nov 1991	Nov 1991	1	Dec 1991	1	2
-3.33%	Mar 2005	Apr 2005	2	Jul 2005	3	5

Rolling Returns

Bogleheads Three Funds Portfolio: annualized rolling and average returns

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	*Return ()**			Negative Periods
Rolling Period	Average	Best	Worst	Negative Periods
1 Year	+8.77%	+48.26% Mar 2009 - Feb 2010	-37.11% Mar 2008 - Feb 2009	19.43%
2 Years	+8.43%	+33.09% Mar 2009 - Feb 2011	-20.26% Mar 2007 - Feb 2009	14.17%
3 Years	+8.24%	+21.87% Mar 2009 - Feb 2012	-12.10% Apr 2000 - Mar 2003	13.81%
5 Years	+8.08%	+18.37% Mar 2009 - Feb 2014	-2.39% Mar 2004 - Feb 2009	2.37%
7 Years	+8.03%	+15.51% Jan 1993 - Dec 1999	+0.64% Mar 2002 - Feb 2009	0.00%
10 Years	+7.81%	+13.59% Oct 1990 - Sep 2000	+0.39% Mar 1999 - Feb 2009	0.00%
15 Years	+7.36%	+10.23% Nov 1992 - Oct 2007	+4.53% Mar 1994 - Feb 2009	0.00%

* Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods

Yearly Returns - Monthly Returns Heatmap

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		Months
Year	Return	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
2020	-0.66%	-0.7
2019	+23.65%	6.8	2.3	1.4	2.9	-4.7	5.6	0.2	-1.3	1.6	2.2	2.3	2.7
2018	-6.89%	4.1	-3.7	-1.0	0.2	0.9	-0.3	2.5	1.2	0.1	-6.4	1.6	-5.8
2017	+19.54%	2.2	2.4	0.9	1.3	1.6	0.6	2.1	0.4	1.7	1.7	1.7	1.3
2016	+8.39%	-4.3	-0.6	6.1	1.0	0.6	0.3	3.4	0.3	0.6	-1.8	1.1	1.7
2015	-1.14%	-0.9	4.3	-0.9	1.7	0.2	-1.9	0.9	-5.5	-2.5	5.9	-0.2	-1.9
2014	+6.07%	-3.0	4.2	0.4	0.6	1.8	1.8	-1.5	2.6	-2.6	1.6	1.4	-1.1
2013	+20.56%	3.3	0.3	2.2	2.1	-0.1	-2.1	4.5	-2.4	4.4	3.4	1.5	1.8
2012	+14.53%	4.7	3.8	1.2	-0.7	-6.5	4.0	0.8	2.2	2.4	-0.7	1.0	2.0
2011	-2.14%	1.3	2.7	0.1	3.4	-1.3	-1.3	-1.5	-5.2	-7.4	8.8	-0.9	0.1
2010	+13.50%	-3.3	2.2	5.1	0.8	-7.0	-3.1	6.7	-3.0	7.7	3.1	-1.1	5.7
2009	+26.45%	-8.3	-8.0	7.1	9.3	7.4	-0.4	7.4	3.0	4.1	-2.3	4.7	1.7
2008	-30.15%	-5.2	-1.3	-0.4	4.1	1.2	-6.5	-1.4	-0.6	-8.2	-15.3	-4.4	4.4
2007	+8.73%	1.2	-0.5	1.4	3.3	2.7	-0.8	-1.9	0.8	4.0	2.9	-3.4	-1.0
2006	+16.69%	3.7	0.0	1.8	2.0	-3.0	0.0	0.6	2.3	1.3	3.2	2.6	1.5
2005	+8.30%	-1.6	2.3	-1.9	-1.4	2.2	0.9	3.1	0.6	1.6	-2.4	3.2	1.8
2004	+13.49%	2.0	1.7	-0.2	-2.6	0.8	1.9	-2.6	0.6	1.8	2.1	4.4	3.3
2003	+28.27%	-2.5	-1.2	-0.2	7.3	5.1	1.6	1.5	2.1	0.8	4.9	1.5	4.7
2002	-13.11%	-1.7	-0.5	3.2	-1.8	-0.2	-4.6	-6.9	0.7	-7.6	4.9	4.2	-2.9
2001	-9.84%	2.6	-6.8	-5.3	6.1	-0.4	-1.8	-1.0	-3.4	-7.1	2.5	4.2	1.1
2000	-7.69%	-4.0	2.3	4.2	-4.3	-2.5	3.9	-2.1	4.2	-3.6	-1.7	-5.9	2.3
1999	+20.73%	1.8	-2.9	3.6	4.0	-2.7	3.8	-1.1	-0.4	-0.8	4.4	3.0	6.7
1998	+18.03%	1.4	5.7	3.6	0.8	-1.7	1.9	-0.8	-11.8	3.0	6.7	4.8	4.3
1997	+17.15%	2.1	0.5	-2.5	2.6	5.7	4.1	5.0	-4.6	4.9	-4.1	1.6	1.4
1996	+12.60%	1.6	0.6	1.0	2.3	0.9	-0.1	-3.7	1.5	3.7	0.8	4.8	-1.4
1995	+22.72%	0.3	1.0	3.3	2.6	2.1	1.2	3.6	-0.1	2.6	-1.0	3.2	2.1
1994	+2.31%	4.8	-1.3	-3.6	1.3	0.4	-0.7	2.0	2.7	-2.1	1.6	-3.6	1.1
1993	+16.23%	0.9	1.7	4.4	2.0	2.7	-0.4	1.4	3.8	-1.0	1.3	-4.2	3.0
1992	+1.54%	-1.0	-0.3	-3.4	0.7	2.6	-2.0	1.5	0.9	0.1	-1.1	2.4	1.4
1991	+22.09%	3.2	6.9	0.1	0.9	2.1	-4.3	3.9	0.9	1.4	1.7	-3.4	7.3
1990	-8.74%	-5.0	-1.1	-1.7	-2.4	8.2	0.0	0.3	-7.7	-6.2	3.9	1.5	2.2
1989	+20.64%	4.2	-0.9	0.4	3.3	1.1	-0.2	7.7	-0.2	1.4	-2.1	2.3	2.2
1988	+17.83%	3.9	4.8	0.9	1.0	-1.0	2.0	0.1	-3.2	3.2	3.0	1.1	0.9
1987	+10.76%	10.2	3.3	4.4	2.1	0.3	1.2	2.1	4.6	-1.8	-15.1	-3.1	4.2

* Note:
Portofolio Returns, up to December 2007, are simulated. They have been calculated using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.

In particular, it has been used:

VTI - Vanguard Total Stock Market: simulated historical serie, up to December 2001

VEU - Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007

BND - Vanguard Total Bond Market: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007