Last Update: 31 March 2021
The Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio is exposed for 80% on the Stock Market.
It's a Very High Risk portfolio and it can be replicated with 4 ETFs.
In the last 10 years, the portfolio obtained a 9.3% compound annual return, with a 11.27% standard deviation.
In 2020, the portfolio granted a 1.89% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.
Asset Allocation and ETFs
The Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio has the following asset allocation:
The Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio can be replicated with the following ETFs:
Weight | Ticker | ETF Name | Investment Themes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
50.00 % | VTI | Vanguard Total Stock Market | Equity, U.S., Large Cap | |
30.00 % | VEU | Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US | Equity, Global ex-US, Large Cap | |
10.00 % | TIP | iShares TIPS Bond | Bond, U.S., All-Term | |
10.00 % | BND | Vanguard Total Bond Market | Bond, U.S., All-Term |
Portfolio and ETF Returns
The Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.
1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y(*) | 5Y(*) | 10Y(*) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio | +2.22 | +4.02 | +16.94 | +45.19 | +11.68 | +12.15 | +9.30 |
Components | |||||||
VTI - Vanguard Total Stock Market | +3.65 | +6.54 | +22.26 | +62.90 | +17.17 | +16.69 | +13.80 |
VEU - Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US | +1.74 | +4.25 | +21.55 | +51.30 | +6.72 | +10.17 | +5.21 |
TIP - iShares TIPS Bond | -0.26 | -1.68 | -0.09 | +7.61 | +5.50 | +3.71 | +3.28 |
BND - Vanguard Total Bond Market | -1.27 | -3.64 | -2.86 | +1.56 | +4.67 | +3.08 | +3.32 |
- a rebalancing of the components at the beginning of each year (i.e. at every January 1st)
- the reinvestment of dividends
If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.
Historical Returns
Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio - Historical returns and stats.
Period | Returns Mar 2021 |
Standard Deviation * |
Max Drawdown |
Months Pos - Neg |
---|---|---|---|---|
1M
|
+2.22%
|
0.00%
|
1 - 0 | |
3M
|
+4.02%
|
-0.11%
Jan 2021 - Jan 2021
|
2 - 1 | |
6M
|
+16.94%
|
-1.70%
Oct 2020 - Oct 2020
|
4 - 2 | |
YTD
|
+4.02%
|
-0.11%
Jan 2021 - Jan 2021
|
2 - 1 | |
1Y
|
+45.19%
|
12.26%
|
-4.01%
Sep 2020 - Oct 2020
|
9 - 3 |
3Y
|
+11.68%
annualized
|
14.46%
|
-17.10%
Jan 2020 - Mar 2020
|
25 - 11 |
5Y
|
+12.15%
annualized
|
11.71%
|
-17.10%
Jan 2020 - Mar 2020
|
46 - 14 |
10Y
|
+9.30%
annualized
|
11.27%
|
-17.10%
Jan 2020 - Mar 2020
|
80 - 40 |
MAX
01 Jan 2001
|
+7.13%
annualized
|
12.53%
|
-44.07%
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
|
152 - 91 |
* Annualized St.Dev. of monthly returns
Best Very High Risk Porftolios, ordered by 10Y annualized return.
Portfolio | 10Y Return ▾ | Stocks | Bonds | Comm. | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Technology |
+19.92% | 100 | 0 | 0 | Compare | |
US Stocks |
+13.80% | 100 | 0 | 0 | Compare | |
Warren Buffett |
+12.75% | 90 | 10 | 0 | Compare | |
Stocks/Bonds 80/20 |
+11.80% | 80 | 20 | 0 | Compare | |
Second Grader's Starter Paul Farrell |
+10.29% | 90 | 10 | 0 | Compare |
Capital Growth
Drawdowns
Rolling Returns ( more details)
Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio: annualized rolling and average returns
Return (*) | Negative Periods |
|||
---|---|---|---|---|
Rolling Period | Average | Best | Worst | |
1 Year |
+8.10% |
+48.60% Mar 2009 - Feb 2010 |
-37.94% Mar 2008 - Feb 2009 |
22.41% |
2 Years |
+7.86% |
+33.36% Mar 2009 - Feb 2011 |
-20.48% Mar 2007 - Feb 2009 |
15.45% |
3 Years |
+7.90% |
+22.28% Mar 2009 - Feb 2012 |
-10.56% Mar 2006 - Feb 2009 |
12.98% |
5 Years |
+7.62% |
+18.54% Mar 2009 - Feb 2014 |
-2.51% Mar 2004 - Feb 2009 |
1.63% |
7 Years |
+7.23% |
+12.65% Mar 2009 - Feb 2016 |
+0.75% Mar 2002 - Feb 2009 |
0.00% |
10 Years |
+7.45% |
+12.28% Mar 2009 - Feb 2019 |
+4.60% Feb 2001 - Jan 2011 |
0.00% |
15 Years |
+7.46% |
+9.57% Feb 2003 - Jan 2018 |
+5.06% Feb 2001 - Jan 2016 |
0.00% |
* Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods
If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.
Seasonality and Yearly/Monthly Returns
Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio Seasonality
Months | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Return (%) | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
Average | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 2.4 | 0.3 | -0.2 | 1.1 | 0.0 | -0.3 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 1.2 |
Best |
6.8 2019 |
4.3 2015 |
7.7 2009 |
9.0 2009 |
7.5 2009 |
5.6 2019 |
7.3 2009 |
4.8 2020 |
7.8 2010 |
9.0 2011 |
9.8 2020 |
5.7 2010 |
Worst |
-8.1 2009 |
-8.2 2009 |
-11.5 2020 |
-2.8 2004 |
-7.1 2010 |
-6.3 2008 |
-6.7 2002 |
-5.5 2015 |
-8.5 2008 |
-16.0 2008 |
-4.8 2008 |
-6.0 2018 |
Gain Frequency |
48 | 52 | 62 | 80 | 60 | 45 | 65 | 65 | 65 | 65 | 75 | 70 |
Detail of Monthly Returns
Months | |||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Return | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
2021 |
+4.02% | -0.1 | 1.9 | 2.2 | |||||||||
2020 |
+15.71% | -0.6 | -5.7 | -11.5 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 4.4 | 4.8 | -2.4 | -1.7 | 9.8 | 4.2 |
2019 |
+23.60% | 6.8 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 2.9 | -4.7 | 5.6 | 0.2 | -1.3 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.7 |
2018 |
-7.02% | 4.1 | -3.7 | -1.0 | 0.3 | 0.9 | -0.2 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.1 | -6.5 | 1.6 | -6.0 |
2017 |
+19.47% | 2.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.4 |
2016 |
+8.61% | -4.3 | -0.5 | 6.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 3.4 | 0.2 | 0.7 | -1.8 | 1.2 | 1.6 |
2015 |
-1.37% | -0.8 | 4.3 | -1.0 | 1.8 | 0.2 | -1.9 | 0.9 | -5.5 | -2.6 | 5.9 | -0.1 | -1.9 |
2014 |
+5.85% | -3.0 | 4.2 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.9 | 1.9 | -1.5 | 2.6 | -2.8 | 1.6 | 1.3 | -1.2 |
2013 |
+19.92% | 3.3 | 0.3 | 2.2 | 2.1 | -0.3 | -2.3 | 4.5 | -2.4 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 1.8 |
2012 |
+14.85% | 4.9 | 3.7 | 1.1 | -0.6 | -6.4 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 2.4 | -0.7 | 1.0 | 2.0 |
2011 |
-1.60% | 1.3 | 2.8 | 0.3 | 3.5 | -1.4 | -1.2 | -1.3 | -5.3 | -7.4 | 9.0 | -0.8 | 0.0 |
2010 |
+13.49% | -3.2 | 2.0 | 5.2 | 1.0 | -7.1 | -3.1 | 6.6 | -3.0 | 7.8 | 3.4 | -1.2 | 5.7 |
2009 |
+26.98% | -8.1 | -8.2 | 7.7 | 9.0 | 7.5 | -0.4 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 4.2 | -2.2 | 4.8 | 1.6 |
2008 |
-30.83% | -4.9 | -1.1 | -0.4 | 3.9 | 1.3 | -6.3 | -1.5 | -0.6 | -8.5 | -16.0 | -4.8 | 4.5 |
2007 |
+9.23% | 1.2 | -0.5 | 1.4 | 3.3 | 2.6 | -0.8 | -1.8 | 0.7 | 4.1 | 3.0 | -3.1 | -1.0 |
2006 |
+16.29% | 3.7 | -0.1 | 1.7 | 2.0 | -3.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.3 |
2005 |
+8.31% | -1.7 | 2.3 | -1.9 | -1.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 1.7 | -2.4 | 3.2 | 1.8 |
2004 |
+13.90% | 2.0 | 1.8 | -0.1 | -2.8 | 1.0 | 1.8 | -2.6 | 0.7 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 4.4 | 3.4 |
2003 |
+28.68% | -2.5 | -1.0 | -0.4 | 7.2 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 4.7 |
2002 |
-12.27% | -1.7 | -0.4 | 3.3 | -1.7 | -0.1 | -4.5 | -6.7 | 1.0 | -7.4 | 4.5 | 4.1 | -2.7 |
2001 |
-9.93% | 2.6 | -6.8 | -5.2 | 6.2 | -0.3 | -1.9 | -1.1 | -3.5 | -7.1 | 2.5 | 4.1 | 1.0 |
* Note: Portofolio Returns, up to December 2007, are simulated. They have been calculated using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.
In particular, it has been used:
VTI - Vanguard Total Stock Market: simulated historical serie, up to December 2001
VEU - Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
TIP - iShares TIPS Bond: simulated historical serie, up to December 2003
BND - Vanguard Total Bond Market: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007