Data Source: from June 1991 to December 2021

Last Update: 31 December 2021

The Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio is exposed for 80% on the Stock Market.

It's a Very High Risk portfolio and it can be replicated with 4 ETFs.

In the last 10 years, the portfolio obtained a 11.12% compound annual return, with a 10.61% standard deviation.

In the last 25 years, a 8.07% compound annual return, with a 12.55% standard deviation.

Asset Allocation and ETFs

The Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio has the following asset allocation:

80% Stocks
20% Fixed Income
0% Commodities

The Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio can be replicated with the following ETFs:

Weight Ticker ETF Name Investment Themes
50.00 % VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market Equity, U.S., Large Cap
30.00 % VEU Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Equity, Global ex-US, Large Cap
10.00 % TIP iShares TIPS Bond Bond, U.S., All-Term
10.00 % BND Vanguard Total Bond Market Bond, U.S., All-Term
Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

Portfolio and ETF Returns

The Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.

BOGLEHEADS FOUR FUNDS PORTFOLIO RETURNS (%)
Last Update: 31 December 2021
Swipe left to see all data
1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y(*) 5Y(*) 10Y(*) 20Y(*) 25Y(*)
Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio +3.08 +5.58 +4.70 +15.70 +18.28 +12.95 +11.12 +8.36 +8.07
--- Inflation Adjusted return +2.60 +3.30 +1.26 +8.01 +14.24 +9.74 +8.82 +5.91 +5.65
Components
VTI
Vanguard Total Stock Market
+3.79 +9.11 +9.08 +25.67 +25.73 +17.96 +16.29 +9.91 +9.88
VEU
Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US
+3.69 +1.96 -1.37 +8.28 +13.60 +9.89 +7.57 +6.87 +5.48
TIP
iShares TIPS Bond
+0.40 +2.39 +4.14 +5.67 +8.26 +5.18 +2.93 +5.18 +5.79
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
-0.31 -0.04 -0.08 -1.86 +4.78 +3.54 +2.75 +4.09 +4.73
(*) annualized
Portfolio returns are calculated assuming:
  • a rebalancing of the components at the beginning of each year (i.e. at every January 1st)
  • the reinvestment of dividends

Inflation is updated to Dec 2021. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 7.12% , 3Y: 3.53% , 5Y: 2.92% , 10Y: 2.12% , 20Y: 2.31% , 25Y: 2.29%

In 2021, the portfolio granted a 2.38% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.

Historical Returns

Historical returns and stats of Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio. Total Returns and Inflation Adjusted Returns are both mentioned.

BOGLEHEADS FOUR FUNDS PORTFOLIO
Last Update: 31 December 2021
Swipe left to see all data
Period Return
Dec 2021
update
Return
Inflation
Adjusted
Standard
Deviation(*)
Max
Drawdown
Months
Pos - Neg
1M
Dec 2021
+3.08%
+2.60%
0.00%
1 - 0
3M
+5.58%
+3.30%
-1.92%
Nov 2021 - Nov 2021
2 - 1
6M
+4.70%
+1.26%
-3.50%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
4 - 2
YTD
+15.70%
+8.01%
7.43%
-3.50%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
9 - 3
75% pos
1Y
+15.70%
+8.01%
7.43%
-3.50%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
9 - 3
75% pos
3Y
+18.28%
annualized
+14.24%
annualized
13.69%
-17.11%
Jan 2020 - Mar 2020
26 - 10
72% pos
5Y
+12.95%
annualized
+9.74%
annualized
12.02%
-17.11%
Jan 2020 - Mar 2020
45 - 15
75% pos
10Y
+11.12%
annualized
+8.82%
annualized
10.61%
-17.11%
Jan 2020 - Mar 2020
85 - 35
71% pos
20Y
+8.36%
annualized
+5.91%
annualized
12.26%
-44.08%
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
154 - 86
64% pos
25Y
+8.07%
annualized
+5.65%
annualized
12.55%
-44.08%
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
189 - 111
63% pos
MAX
01 Jun 1991
+8.63%
annualized
+6.08%
annualized
11.87%
-44.08%
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
236 - 131
64% pos
(*)Annualized St.Dev. of monthly returns

Portfolio efficiency

Is the Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio actually efficient, compared to other Lazy Portfolios?

Best Classic Portfolios, with Very High Risk, ordered by 25 Years annualized return.

25 Years Stats
% Allocation
Portfolio Return Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm.
Technology
+13.30% -81.08% 100 0 0 Compare
US Stocks
+9.88% -50.84% 100 0 0 Compare
Warren Buffett Portfolio
Warren Buffett
+9.38% -45.53% 90 10 0 Compare
Aggressive Global Income
+9.25% -52.62% 80 20 0 Compare
Stocks/Bonds 80/20
+9.17% -41.09% 80 20 0 Compare

See all portfolios

Our overall ratings, assigned to the Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio. The portfolio is classified as Very High Risk.

Very High Risk
Bond weight:
Less than 25%
High Risk
Bond weight:
25% - 49.99%
Medium Risk
Bond weight:
50% - 74.99%
Low Risk
Bond weight:
At least 75%
Very High Risk
Portfolios
All
Portfolios
25 Years Ann. Return
(Inflation Adjusted)
+8.07%
(+5.65%)
Average : 2.2 / 5
Good : 3.6 / 5
Standard Deviation
over 25 Years
12.55%
Excellent : 4.7 / 5
Average : 2.8 / 5
Maximum Drawdown
over 25 Years
-44.08%
Excellent : 5 / 5
Average : 2.2 / 5
Easy to manage 4 ETFs
Good : 3.5 / 5
Good : 3.5 / 5
Rating assigned considering all the Very High Risk Portfolios Rating assigned considering all the Portfolios in the database

Capital Growth

Time Range:

An investment of 1000$, since January 1997, now would be worth 6961.06$, with a total return of 596.11% (8.07% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 3952.66$, with a net total return of 295.27% (5.65% annualized).

Drawdowns

Time Range:

Worst drawdowns since January 1997 - Chart and Data

Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months
-44.08% Nov 2007 Feb 2009 16 Apr 2011 26 42
-32.45% Apr 2000 Sep 2002 30 Nov 2004 26 56
-17.11% Jan 2020 Mar 2020 3 Jul 2020 4 7
-15.64% May 2011 Sep 2011 5 Mar 2012 6 11
-12.43% Jul 1998 Aug 1998 2 Nov 1998 3 5
-10.69% Feb 2018 Dec 2018 11 Apr 2019 4 15
-10.05% Jun 2015 Feb 2016 9 Jul 2016 5 14
-6.92% Apr 2012 May 2012 2 Sep 2012 4 6
-4.69% May 2019 May 2019 1 Jun 2019 1 2
-4.68% Aug 1997 Aug 1997 1 Sep 1997 1 2
-4.05% Oct 1997 Oct 1997 1 Jan 1998 3 4
-4.01% Sep 2020 Oct 2020 2 Nov 2020 1 3
-3.93% Jan 2000 Jan 2000 1 Mar 2000 2 3
-3.50% Sep 2021 Sep 2021 1 Oct 2021 1 2
-3.23% Mar 2005 Apr 2005 2 Jul 2005 3 5
-3.01% May 2006 Jun 2006 2 Sep 2006 3 5
-2.99% Feb 1999 Feb 1999 1 Mar 1999 1 2
-2.96% Jan 2014 Jan 2014 1 Feb 2014 1 2
-2.81% Sep 2014 Sep 2014 1 Nov 2014 2 3
-2.72% May 1999 May 1999 1 Jun 1999 1 2

Rolling Returns ( more details)

Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio: annualized rolling and average returns

Swipe left to see all data
Return (*) Negative
Periods
Rolling Period Average Best Worst
1 Year
+9.45% +48.60%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2010
-37.94%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009
18.54%
2 Years
+8.73% +33.36%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2011
-20.48%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009
15.41%
3 Years
+8.38% +22.28%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2012
-11.70%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2003
15.06%
5 Years
+8.14% +18.54%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2014
-2.51%
Mar 2004 - Feb 2009
2.27%
7 Years
+7.76% +15.57%
Jan 1993 - Dec 1999
+0.75%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2009
0.00%
10 Years
+7.28% +12.28%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2019
+0.52%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009
0.00%
15 Years
+7.20% +10.42%
Nov 1992 - Oct 2007
+4.62%
Mar 1994 - Feb 2009
0.00%
20 Years
+7.22% +8.57%
Nov 2001 - Oct 2021
+4.72%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020
0.00%

* Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods

If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.

Seasonality

Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio Seasonality: in which months is it better to invest?

In the table below, the average monthly return is represented.

Below each return, it's also mentioned the probability of obtaining a positive monthly result (Win %).

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.

Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Win %
0.30
57%
0.24
57%
0.75
63%
2.13
83%
0.50
63%
0.17
48%
1.04
65%
-0.01
65%
-0.02
61%
0.94
65%
1.17
68%
1.81
77%
Best
Year
6.8
2019
5.7
1998
7.7
2009
9.0
2009
7.5
2009
5.5
2019
7.3
2009
4.8
2020
7.8
2010
9.0
2011
9.8
2020
7.3
1991
Worst
Year
-8.1
2009
-8.2
2009
-11.5
2020
-4.3
2000
-7.1
2010
-6.3
2008
-6.7
2002
-11.7
1998
-8.5
2008
-15.9
2008
-5.7
2000
-5.9
2018
Statistics calculated for the period Jun 1991 - Dec 2021

For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.

Monthly/Yearly Returns

Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio monthly and yearly returns: how is the distribution of the returns recorded so far?

MONTHLY RETURNS HISTOGRAM
236 Positive Months (64%) - 131 Negative Months (36%)
Jun 1991 - Dec 2021
Swipe left to see all data
Yearly Return(%)
Monthly Return(%)
Year Total Infl.Adj Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2021
+15.70 +8.01 -0.1 1.9 2.2 3.6 1.3 1.3 0.8 1.9 -3.5 4.4 -1.9 3.1
2020
+15.71 +14.22 -0.6 -5.7 -11.5 8.9 4.1 2.5 4.4 4.8 -2.4 -1.7 9.8 4.2
2019
+23.60 +20.87 6.8 2.3 1.4 2.9 -4.7 5.5 0.2 -1.3 1.6 2.1 2.3 2.7
2018
-7.02 -8.77 4.1 -3.7 -1.0 0.3 0.9 -0.2 2.5 1.2 0.1 -6.5 1.6 -5.9
2017
+19.47 +17.01 2.3 2.3 0.9 1.3 1.5 0.6 2.1 0.5 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.4
2016
+8.61 +6.43 -4.3 -0.5 6.2 1.0 0.6 0.4 3.4 0.2 0.7 -1.8 1.1 1.6
2015
-1.37 -2.00 -0.8 4.3 -1.0 1.8 0.2 -1.9 0.9 -5.5 -2.6 5.9 -0.1 -1.9
2014
+5.85 +5.16 -3.0 4.2 0.3 0.7 1.9 1.9 -1.5 2.6 -2.8 1.6 1.3 -1.2
2013
+19.92 +18.13 3.3 0.3 2.2 2.1 -0.3 -2.3 4.5 -2.4 4.5 3.4 1.5 1.8
2012
+14.85 +12.86 4.9 3.7 1.1 -0.6 -6.4 3.9 0.9 2.2 2.4 -0.7 1.0 2.0
2011
-1.60 -4.53 1.3 2.8 0.2 3.5 -1.4 -1.2 -1.3 -5.3 -7.4 9.0 -0.8 0.0
2010
+13.49 +11.88 -3.2 2.0 5.2 0.9 -7.1 -3.1 6.6 -3.0 7.8 3.4 -1.2 5.7
2009
+26.98 +23.51 -8.1 -8.2 7.7 9.0 7.5 -0.4 7.3 3.0 4.2 -2.2 4.8 1.6
2008
-30.83 -30.82 -4.9 -1.1 -0.4 3.9 1.3 -6.3 -1.4 -0.6 -8.5 -15.9 -4.8 4.5
2007
+9.23 +4.92 1.2 -0.5 1.4 3.3 2.6 -0.8 -1.8 0.7 4.1 3.0 -3.1 -1.0
2006
+16.29 +13.43 3.7 -0.1 1.7 2.0 -3.0 0.0 0.6 2.2 1.3 3.1 2.5 1.3
2005
+8.31 +4.82 -1.7 2.3 -1.9 -1.4 2.1 0.9 2.9 0.7 1.7 -2.4 3.2 1.8
2004
+13.90 +10.21 2.0 1.8 -0.1 -2.8 1.0 1.8 -2.6 0.7 1.7 2.1 4.4 3.4
2003
+28.68 +26.11 -2.4 -1.0 -0.4 7.2 5.4 1.5 1.4 2.2 0.8 5.0 1.5 4.7
2002
-12.27 -14.40 -1.7 -0.4 3.3 -1.6 -0.1 -4.5 -6.7 1.0 -7.4 4.5 4.1 -2.7
2001
-9.93 -11.35 2.6 -6.8 -5.2 6.2 -0.3 -1.9 -1.1 -3.5 -7.1 2.5 4.1 1.0
2000
-7.07 -10.15 -3.9 2.5 4.3 -4.3 -2.5 3.9 -2.1 4.3 -3.7 -1.6 -5.7 2.4
1999
+20.36 +17.22 1.8 -3.0 3.5 4.0 -2.7 3.8 -1.1 -0.4 -0.8 4.4 3.0 6.7
1998
+18.10 +16.23 1.4 5.7 3.6 0.8 -1.6 1.9 -0.8 -11.7 3.1 6.7 4.8 4.3
1997
+17.48 +15.52 2.0 0.5 -2.6 2.7 5.7 4.1 5.2 -4.7 5.0 -4.0 1.7 1.4
1996
+12.38 +8.70 1.5 0.4 1.0 2.3 0.9 0.0 -3.7 1.4 3.8 0.9 4.9 -1.5
1995
+23.21 +20.17 0.4 1.0 3.3 2.5 2.2 1.2 3.6 0.0 2.6 -1.0 3.3 2.1
1994
+1.95 -0.63 4.9 -1.5 -3.8 1.3 0.4 -0.7 2.1 2.7 -2.2 1.6 -3.5 1.2
1993
+16.83 +13.64 0.9 1.8 4.3 2.0 2.7 -0.3 1.5 4.0 -1.0 1.3 -4.2 3.0
1992
+1.70 -1.23 -1.2 -0.2 -3.5 0.5 2.7 -2.0 1.7 0.9 0.1 -1.2 2.5 1.5
1991
- - -4.2 3.9 0.9 1.7 1.6 -3.3 7.3

* Note:
Portofolio Returns, up to December 2007, are simulated. They have been calculated using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.

In particular, it has been used:

  • VTI - Vanguard Total Stock Market: simulated historical serie, up to December 2001
  • VEU - Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
  • TIP - iShares TIPS Bond: simulated historical serie, up to December 2003
  • BND - Vanguard Total Bond Market: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
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