Data Source: from June 1991 to September 2021
Last Update: 30 September 2021
The Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio is exposed for 80% on the Stock Market.
It's a Very High Risk portfolio and it can be replicated with 4 ETFs.
In the last 10 years, the portfolio obtained a 11.38% compound annual return, with a 10.82% standard deviation.
In the last 25 years, a 8.02% compound annual return, with a 12.54% standard deviation.
In 2020, the portfolio granted a 1.89% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.
Asset Allocation and ETFs
The Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio has the following asset allocation:
The Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio can be replicated with the following ETFs:
| Weight | Ticker | ETF Name | Investment Themes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50.00 % | VTI | Vanguard Total Stock Market | Equity, U.S., Large Cap | |
| 30.00 % | VEU | Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US | Equity, Global ex-US, Large Cap | |
| 10.00 % | TIP | iShares TIPS Bond | Bond, U.S., All-Term | |
| 10.00 % | BND | Vanguard Total Bond Market | Bond, U.S., All-Term |
Portfolio and ETF Returns
The Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.
| 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y(*) | 5Y(*) | 10Y(*) | 20Y(*) | 25Y(*) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio | -3.50 | -0.83 | +5.36 | +23.20 | +11.87 | +11.94 | +11.38 | +8.47 | +8.02 |
| Components | |||||||||
|
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market |
-4.46 | -0.03 | +8.10 | +32.16 | +16.05 | +16.88 | +16.60 | +10.07 | +9.79 |
|
VEU Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US |
-3.33 | -3.26 | +1.87 | +23.82 | +8.34 | +9.04 | +7.99 | +7.18 | +5.40 |
|
TIP iShares TIPS Bond |
-0.78 | +1.71 | +4.97 | +4.88 | +7.23 | +4.13 | +2.97 | +4.99 | +5.88 |
|
BND Vanguard Total Bond Market |
-1.01 | -0.05 | +1.88 | -1.04 | +5.36 | +2.88 | +2.88 | +4.09 | +4.86 |
- a rebalancing of the components at the beginning of each year (i.e. at every January 1st)
- the reinvestment of dividends
If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.
Historical Returns
Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio - Historical returns and stats.
| Period | Returns Sep 2021 |
Standard Deviation * |
Max Drawdown |
Months Pos - Neg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1M
|
-3.50%
|
-3.50%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
|
0 - 1 | |
|
3M
|
-0.83%
|
-3.50%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
|
2 - 1 | |
|
6M
|
+5.36%
|
-3.50%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
|
5 - 1 | |
|
YTD
|
+9.59%
|
-3.50%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
|
7 - 2 | |
|
1Y
|
+23.20%
|
10.87%
|
-3.50%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
|
9 - 3 |
|
3Y
|
+11.87%
annualized
|
14.72%
|
-17.10%
Jan 2020 - Mar 2020
|
25 - 11 |
|
5Y
|
+11.94%
annualized
|
11.89%
|
-17.10%
Jan 2020 - Mar 2020
|
45 - 15 |
|
10Y
|
+11.38%
annualized
|
10.82%
|
-17.10%
Jan 2020 - Mar 2020
|
84 - 36 |
|
20Y
|
+8.47%
annualized
|
12.24%
|
-44.07%
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
|
155 - 85 |
|
25Y
|
+8.02%
annualized
|
12.54%
|
-44.07%
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
|
189 - 111 |
|
MAX
01 Jun 1991
|
+8.51%
annualized
|
11.88%
|
-44.07%
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
|
234 - 130 |
Best Classic Portfolios, with Very High Risk, ordered by 25 Years annualized return.
25 Years Stats |
% Allocation |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | Return▾ | Drawdown | Stocks | Bonds | Comm. | ||
| Technology |
+13.30% | -81.08% | 100 | 0 | 0 | Compare | |
| US Stocks |
+9.79% | -50.84% | 100 | 0 | 0 | Compare | |
| Warren Buffett |
+9.32% | -45.53% | 90 | 10 | 0 | Compare | |
| Aggressive Global Income |
+9.18% | -52.62% | 80 | 20 | 0 | Compare | |
| Stocks/Bonds 80/20 |
+9.12% | -41.09% | 80 | 20 | 0 | Compare | |
Capital Growth
Drawdowns
Rolling Returns ( more details)
Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio: annualized rolling and average returns
| Return (*) | Negative Periods |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rolling Period | Average | Best | Worst | |
| 1 Year |
+9.35% |
+48.60% Mar 2009 - Feb 2010 |
-37.94% Mar 2008 - Feb 2009 |
18.70% |
| 2 Years |
+8.66% |
+33.36% Mar 2009 - Feb 2011 |
-20.48% Mar 2007 - Feb 2009 |
15.54% |
| 3 Years |
+8.31% |
+22.28% Mar 2009 - Feb 2012 |
-11.70% Apr 2000 - Mar 2003 |
15.20% |
| 5 Years |
+8.09% |
+18.54% Mar 2009 - Feb 2014 |
-2.51% Mar 2004 - Feb 2009 |
2.30% |
| 7 Years |
+7.73% |
+15.57% Jan 1993 - Dec 1999 |
+0.75% Mar 2002 - Feb 2009 |
0.00% |
| 10 Years |
+7.23% |
+12.28% Mar 2009 - Feb 2019 |
+0.51% Mar 1999 - Feb 2009 |
0.00% |
| 15 Years |
+7.19% |
+10.42% Nov 1992 - Oct 2007 |
+4.62% Mar 1994 - Feb 2009 |
0.00% |
| 20 Years |
+7.19% |
+8.47% Oct 2001 - Sep 2021 |
+4.72% Apr 2000 - Mar 2020 |
0.00% |
* Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods
If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.
Seasonality and Yearly/Monthly Returns
Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio Seasonality: in which months is it better to invest?
In the table below, the average monthly return is represented.
Below each return, it's also mentioned the probability of obtaining a positive monthly result (Win %).
Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.
| Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return (%) | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
| Average Win % |
0.30 57% |
0.24 57% |
0.75 63% |
2.13 83% |
0.50 63% |
0.17 48% |
1.04 65% |
-0.01 65% |
-0.02 61% |
0.82 63% |
1.27 70% |
1.77 77% |
| Best Year |
6.8 2019 |
5.7 1998 |
7.7 2009 |
9.0 2009 |
7.5 2009 |
5.6 2019 |
7.3 2009 |
4.8 2020 |
7.8 2010 |
9.0 2011 |
9.8 2020 |
7.3 1991 |
| Worst Year |
-8.1 2009 |
-8.2 2009 |
-11.5 2020 |
-4.3 2000 |
-7.1 2010 |
-6.3 2008 |
-6.7 2002 |
-11.7 1998 |
-8.5 2008 |
-16.0 2008 |
-5.7 2000 |
-6.0 2018 |
For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
Monthly Returns of Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio
| Months | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Return | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
| 2021 |
+9.59% | -0.1 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 1.9 | -3.5 | |||
| 2020 |
+15.71% | -0.6 | -5.7 | -11.5 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 4.4 | 4.8 | -2.4 | -1.7 | 9.8 | 4.2 |
| 2019 |
+23.60% | 6.8 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 2.9 | -4.7 | 5.6 | 0.2 | -1.3 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.7 |
| 2018 |
-7.02% | 4.1 | -3.7 | -1.0 | 0.3 | 0.9 | -0.2 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.1 | -6.5 | 1.6 | -6.0 |
| 2017 |
+19.47% | 2.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| 2016 |
+8.61% | -4.3 | -0.5 | 6.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 3.4 | 0.2 | 0.7 | -1.8 | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| 2015 |
-1.37% | -0.8 | 4.3 | -1.0 | 1.8 | 0.2 | -1.9 | 0.9 | -5.5 | -2.6 | 5.9 | -0.1 | -1.9 |
| 2014 |
+5.85% | -3.0 | 4.2 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.9 | 1.9 | -1.5 | 2.6 | -2.8 | 1.6 | 1.3 | -1.2 |
| 2013 |
+19.92% | 3.3 | 0.3 | 2.2 | 2.1 | -0.3 | -2.3 | 4.5 | -2.4 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| 2012 |
+14.85% | 4.9 | 3.7 | 1.1 | -0.6 | -6.4 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 2.4 | -0.7 | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| 2011 |
-1.60% | 1.3 | 2.8 | 0.3 | 3.5 | -1.4 | -1.2 | -1.3 | -5.3 | -7.4 | 9.0 | -0.8 | 0.0 |
| 2010 |
+13.49% | -3.2 | 2.0 | 5.2 | 1.0 | -7.1 | -3.1 | 6.6 | -3.0 | 7.8 | 3.4 | -1.2 | 5.7 |
| 2009 |
+26.98% | -8.1 | -8.2 | 7.7 | 9.0 | 7.5 | -0.4 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 4.2 | -2.2 | 4.8 | 1.6 |
| 2008 |
-30.83% | -4.9 | -1.1 | -0.4 | 3.9 | 1.3 | -6.3 | -1.5 | -0.6 | -8.5 | -16.0 | -4.8 | 4.5 |
| 2007 |
+9.23% | 1.2 | -0.5 | 1.4 | 3.3 | 2.6 | -0.8 | -1.8 | 0.7 | 4.1 | 3.0 | -3.1 | -1.0 |
| 2006 |
+16.29% | 3.7 | -0.1 | 1.7 | 2.0 | -3.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| 2005 |
+8.31% | -1.7 | 2.3 | -1.9 | -1.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 1.7 | -2.4 | 3.2 | 1.8 |
| 2004 |
+13.90% | 2.0 | 1.8 | -0.1 | -2.8 | 1.0 | 1.8 | -2.6 | 0.7 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 4.4 | 3.4 |
| 2003 |
+28.68% | -2.5 | -1.0 | -0.4 | 7.2 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 4.7 |
| 2002 |
-12.27% | -1.7 | -0.4 | 3.3 | -1.7 | -0.1 | -4.5 | -6.7 | 1.0 | -7.4 | 4.5 | 4.1 | -2.7 |
| 2001 |
-9.93% | 2.6 | -6.8 | -5.2 | 6.2 | -0.3 | -1.9 | -1.1 | -3.5 | -7.1 | 2.5 | 4.1 | 1.0 |
| 2000 |
-7.07% | -3.9 | 2.5 | 4.3 | -4.3 | -2.5 | 3.9 | -2.1 | 4.3 | -3.7 | -1.6 | -5.7 | 2.4 |
| 1999 |
+20.36% | 1.8 | -3.0 | 3.5 | 4.0 | -2.7 | 3.8 | -1.1 | -0.4 | -0.8 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 6.7 |
| 1998 |
+18.10% | 1.4 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 0.8 | -1.7 | 1.9 | -0.8 | -11.7 | 3.1 | 6.7 | 4.8 | 4.3 |
| 1997 |
+17.48% | 2.0 | 0.5 | -2.6 | 2.7 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 5.2 | -4.7 | 5.0 | -4.1 | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| 1996 |
+12.38% | 1.6 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.0 | -3.7 | 1.5 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 4.9 | -1.5 |
| 1995 |
+23.21% | 0.4 | 1.0 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 3.6 | 0.0 | 2.6 | -1.0 | 3.3 | 2.1 |
| 1994 |
+1.95% | 4.9 | -1.5 | -3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | -0.7 | 2.1 | 2.7 | -2.2 | 1.6 | -3.6 | 1.2 |
| 1993 |
+16.83% | 0.9 | 1.8 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | -0.3 | 1.5 | 4.0 | -1.0 | 1.3 | -4.2 | 3.0 |
| 1992 |
+1.70% | -1.2 | -0.2 | -3.5 | 0.6 | 2.7 | -2.0 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.1 | -1.2 | 2.5 | 1.6 |
* Note: Portofolio Returns, up to December 2007, are simulated. They have been calculated using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.
In particular, it has been used:
- VTI - Vanguard Total Stock Market: simulated historical serie, up to December 2001
- VEU - Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
- TIP - iShares TIPS Bond: simulated historical serie, up to December 2003
- BND - Vanguard Total Bond Market: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007