Last Update: 31 August 2021

Implementing the Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to obtain a positive return?

Considering all 10 years rolling periods, you would have obtained a positive returns 100.00% of times

Considering all 5 years rolling periods, you would have obtained a positive returns 97.70% of times

All the returns are calculated over the available historical serie, starting from June 1991 until August 2021.

In order to have complete information about the portfolio, please refer to the Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns page.

Rolling Returns

Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio: annualized rolling and average returns

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Return (*) Negative
Periods
Rolling Period Average Best Worst
1 Year
+9.31% +48.60%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2010
-37.94%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009
18.75%
2 Years
+8.64% +33.36%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2011
-20.48%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009
15.59%
3 Years
+8.30% +22.28%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2012
-11.70%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2003
15.24%
4 Years
+8.24% +18.94%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2013
-5.49%
Mar 2005 - Feb 2009
10.76%
5 Years
+8.08% +18.54%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2014
-2.51%
Mar 2004 - Feb 2009
2.30%
6 Years
+7.88% +16.78%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2015
+2.44%
Mar 1997 - Feb 2003
0.00%
7 Years
+7.73% +15.57%
Jan 1993 - Dec 1999
+0.75%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2009
0.00%
8 Years
+7.60% +14.83%
Apr 1992 - Mar 2000
-0.36%
Mar 2001 - Feb 2009
0.75%
9 Years
+7.40% +13.57%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2018
-1.44%
Mar 2000 - Feb 2009
1.17%
10 Years
+7.22% +12.28%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2019
+0.51%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009
0.00%
11 Years
+7.18% +11.70%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2020
+1.24%
Mar 1998 - Feb 2009
0.00%
12 Years
+7.20% +12.80%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2021
+2.89%
Mar 1997 - Feb 2009
0.00%
13 Years
+7.09% +10.12%
Dec 1994 - Nov 2007
+3.63%
Mar 1996 - Feb 2009
0.00%
14 Years
+7.14% +9.89%
Feb 1993 - Jan 2007
+4.65%
Oct 1997 - Sep 2011
0.00%
15 Years
+7.18% +10.42%
Nov 1992 - Oct 2007
+4.62%
Mar 1994 - Feb 2009
0.00%
16 Years
+7.16% +9.99%
Jul 1991 - Jun 2007
+4.49%
Mar 2000 - Feb 2016
0.00%
17 Years
+7.10% +9.11%
Jun 1991 - May 2008
+4.93%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2016
0.00%
18 Years
+7.17% +9.71%
Apr 2003 - Mar 2021
+5.50%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2018
0.00%
19 Years
+7.15% +9.35%
Sep 2002 - Aug 2021
+4.98%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2018
0.00%
20 Years
+7.18% +8.39%
Dec 1994 - Nov 2014
+4.72%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020
0.00%

* Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods

Annualized Rolling Returns - 1 Year (12 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+9.31% +48.60%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2010
-37.94%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009
18.75%
66 out of 352

Annualized Rolling Returns - 2 Years (24 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+8.64% +33.36%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2011
-20.48%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009
15.59%
53 out of 340

Annualized Rolling Returns - 3 Years (36 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+8.30% +22.28%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2012
-11.70%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2003
15.24%
50 out of 328

Annualized Rolling Returns - 4 Years (48 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+8.24% +18.94%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2013
-5.49%
Mar 2005 - Feb 2009
10.76%
34 out of 316

Annualized Rolling Returns - 5 Years (60 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+8.08% +18.54%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2014
-2.51%
Mar 2004 - Feb 2009
2.30%
7 out of 304

Annualized Rolling Returns - 6 Years (72 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+7.88% +16.78%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2015
+2.44%
Mar 1997 - Feb 2003
0.00%
0 out of 292

Annualized Rolling Returns - 7 Years (84 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+7.73% +15.57%
Jan 1993 - Dec 1999
+0.75%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2009
0.00%
0 out of 280

Annualized Rolling Returns - 8 Years (96 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+7.60% +14.83%
Apr 1992 - Mar 2000
-0.36%
Mar 2001 - Feb 2009
0.75%
2 out of 268

Annualized Rolling Returns - 9 Years (108 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+7.40% +13.57%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2018
-1.44%
Mar 2000 - Feb 2009
1.17%
3 out of 256

Annualized Rolling Returns - 10 Years (120 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+7.22% +12.28%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2019
+0.51%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009
0.00%
0 out of 244

Annualized Rolling Returns - 11 Years (132 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+7.18% +11.70%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2020
+1.24%
Mar 1998 - Feb 2009
0.00%
0 out of 232

Annualized Rolling Returns - 12 Years (144 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+7.20% +12.80%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2021
+2.89%
Mar 1997 - Feb 2009
0.00%
0 out of 220

Annualized Rolling Returns - 13 Years (156 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+7.09% +10.12%
Dec 1994 - Nov 2007
+3.63%
Mar 1996 - Feb 2009
0.00%
0 out of 208

Annualized Rolling Returns - 14 Years (168 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+7.14% +9.89%
Feb 1993 - Jan 2007
+4.65%
Oct 1997 - Sep 2011
0.00%
0 out of 196

Annualized Rolling Returns - 15 Years (180 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+7.18% +10.42%
Nov 1992 - Oct 2007
+4.62%
Mar 1994 - Feb 2009
0.00%
0 out of 184

Annualized Rolling Returns - 16 Years (192 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+7.16% +9.99%
Jul 1991 - Jun 2007
+4.49%
Mar 2000 - Feb 2016
0.00%
0 out of 172

Annualized Rolling Returns - 17 Years (204 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+7.10% +9.11%
Jun 1991 - May 2008
+4.93%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2016
0.00%
0 out of 160

Annualized Rolling Returns - 18 Years (216 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+7.17% +9.71%
Apr 2003 - Mar 2021
+5.50%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2018
0.00%
0 out of 148

Annualized Rolling Returns - 19 Years (228 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+7.15% +9.35%
Sep 2002 - Aug 2021
+4.98%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2018
0.00%
0 out of 136

Annualized Rolling Returns - 20 Years (240 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+7.18% +8.39%
Dec 1994 - Nov 2014
+4.72%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020
0.00%
0 out of 124

In order to have complete information about the portfolio, please refer to the Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns page.

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