Bill Bernstein Sheltered Sam 60/40 Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns

Data Source: from January 1985 to February 2023 (~38 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 28 February 2023
Live Update: Mar 20 2023

PORTFOLIO • LIVE PERFORMANCE (USD currency)

0.68%

1 Day

Mar 20 2023

1.53%

Current Month

March 2023

The Bill Bernstein Sheltered Sam 60/40 Portfolio is a High Risk portfolio and can be implemented with 12 ETFs.

It's exposed for 58.2% on the Stock Market and for 1.8% on Commodities.

In the last 30 Years, the Bill Bernstein Sheltered Sam 60/40 Portfolio obtained a 7.45% compound annual return, with a 9.15% standard deviation.

Asset Allocation and ETFs

The Bill Bernstein Sheltered Sam 60/40 Portfolio has the following asset allocation:

        58.2% Stocks
      
        40% Fixed Income
      
        1.8% Commodities

The Bill Bernstein Sheltered Sam 60/40 Portfolio can be implemented with the following ETFs:

Weight	Ticker	ETF Name	Investment Themes
15.00 %	VTV	Vanguard Value	Equity, U.S., Large Cap, Value
12.00 %	VV	Vanguard Large-Cap	Equity, U.S., Large Cap
9.00 %	IJS	iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value	Equity, U.S., Small Cap, Value
6.00 %	VNQ	Vanguard Real Estate	Real Estate, U.S.
4.20 %	EFV	iShares MSCI EAFE Value	Equity, EAFE, Large Cap, Value
3.00 %	EEM	iShares MSCI Emerging Markets	Equity, Emerging Markets, Large Cap
3.00 %	IJR	iShares Core S&P Small-Cap	Equity, U.S., Small Cap
3.00 %	VGK	Vanguard FTSE Europe	Equity, Developed Europe, Large Cap
3.00 %	VPL	Vanguard FTSE Pacific	Equity, Developed Asia Pacific, Large Cap
24.00 %	SHY	iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond	Bond, U.S., Short Term
16.00 %	TIP	iShares TIPS Bond	Bond, U.S., All-Term
1.80 %	GLTR	Aberdeen Standard Physical Precious Metals Basket Shares	Commodity, Broad Precious Metals

Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

Portfolio and ETF Returns as of Feb 28, 2023

The Bill Bernstein Sheltered Sam 60/40 Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.

Portfolio returns are calculated in USD, assuming:

No fees or capital gain taxes
a rebalancing of the components at the beginning of each year (at every January 1st). How do returns change with different rebalancing strategies?
the reinvestment of dividends

March 2023 return is calculated on the hypothesis of a newly built portfolio, with the starting asset allocation.

BILL BERNSTEIN SHELTERED SAM 60/40 PORTFOLIO RETURNS

Consolidated returns as of 28 February 2023

Live Update: Mar 20 2023

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	Chg (%)		Return (%)	Return (%) as of Feb 28, 2023
	1 Day	*Time ET^()**	Mar 2023	1M	6M	1Y	5Y	10Y	30Y	MAX (~38Y)
Bill Bernstein Sheltered Sam 60/40 Portfolio	0.68		-1.53	-2.48	2.12	-5.36	4.84	5.85	7.45	8.98
US Inflation Adjusted return				-3.02	0.54	-10.75	0.94	3.14	4.82	6.02
*Components*
VTV Vanguard Value	1.39	Mar 20 2023	-3.59	-3.24	5.02	-0.39	8.39	11.01	9.29	9.93
VV Vanguard Large-Cap	0.87	Mar 20 2023	-0.36	-2.40	0.97	-8.75	9.59	12.07	9.71	8.90
IJS iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value	1.22	Mar 20 2023	-9.35	-1.73	9.45	-0.24	7.77	10.41	10.74	12.91
VNQ Vanguard Real Estate	1.14	Mar 20 2023	-4.96	-5.86	-5.50	-13.27	7.07	6.31	8.64	7.02
EFV iShares MSCI EAFE Value	1.67	Mar 20 2023	-4.49	-2.20	16.15	1.22	1.28	3.60	5.82	9.96
EEM iShares MSCI Emerging Markets	0.37	Mar 20 2023	-1.26	-7.57	-1.58	-16.23	-2.35	0.92	5.83	7.41
IJR iShares Core S&P Small-Cap	1.46	Mar 20 2023	-7.84	-1.21	6.33	-3.60	7.80	10.87	10.28	11.48
VGK Vanguard FTSE Europe	1.58	Mar 20 2023	-2.88	-1.71	17.68	-0.96	3.75	5.42	7.38	8.67
VPL Vanguard FTSE Pacific	0.91	Mar 20 2023	-0.55	-5.58	4.40	-8.86	0.57	4.33	3.56	8.19
SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond	-0.12	Mar 20 2023	1.66	-0.99	-0.74	-3.01	0.65	0.50	3.00	4.43
TIP iShares TIPS Bond	0.09	Mar 20 2023	1.44	-1.35	-4.27	-11.42	2.21	0.98	5.20	6.82
GLTR Aberdeen Standard Physical Precious Metals Basket Shares	0.18	Mar 20 2023	7.13	-7.99	3.37	-13.43	5.22	-0.53	7.19	8.36

Returns over 1 year are annualized | Available data source: since Jan 1985

(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)

US Inflation is updated to Feb 2023. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 6.04% , 5Y: 3.86% , 10Y: 2.63% , 30Y: 2.51%

Live update: World Markets and Indexes

Portfolio Metrics as of Feb 28, 2023

Metrics of Bill Bernstein Sheltered Sam 60/40 Portfolio, updated as of 28 February 2023.

Portfolio metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:

No fees or capital gain taxes
a rebalancing of the components at the beginning of each year (at every January 1st). How do returns change with different rebalancing strategies?
the reinvestment of dividends

BILL BERNSTEIN SHELTERED SAM 60/40 PORTFOLIO

Portfolio Metrics

Data Source: 1 January 1985 - 28 February 2023 (~38 years)

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	Metrics as of Feb 28, 2023
	1M	3M	6M	1Y	3Y	5Y	10Y	20Y	30Y	MAX (~38Y)
Portfolio Return (%)	-2.48	-0.32	2.12	-5.36	5.95	4.84	5.85	7.22	7.45	8.98
US Inflation (%)	0.56	1.05	1.58	6.04	5.16	3.86	2.63	2.51	2.51	2.79
Infl. Adjusted Return (%)	-3.02	-1.36	0.54	-10.75	0.75	0.94	3.14	4.59	4.82	6.02
Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized.
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%)				14.27	12.60	11.16	8.94	9.64	9.15	9.31
Sharpe Ratio				-0.52	0.42	0.33	0.58	0.63	0.57	0.54
Sortino Ratio				-0.75	0.55	0.43	0.76	0.82	0.74	0.69
MAXIMUM DRAWDOWN
Drawdown Depth (%)				-14.09	-16.48	-16.48	-16.48	-34.12	-34.12	-34.12
Start (yyyy mm)				2022 04	2022 01	2022 01	2022 01	2007 11	2007 11	2007 11
Bottom (yyyy mm)				2022 09	2022 09	2022 09	2022 09	2009 02	2009 02	2009 02
Start to Bottom (# months)				6	9	9	9	16	16	16
Start to Recovery (# months) in progress				> 11	> 14	> 14	> 14	38	38	38
ROLLING PERIOD RETURNS - Annualized
Best Return (%)				37.75	19.30	17.49	13.39	11.89	10.05
Worst Return (%)				-29.82	-7.40	-0.65	3.64	5.71	7.39
% Positive Periods				84%	95%	100%	100%	100%	100%
MONTHS
Positive	0	1	3	6	23	39	81	163	243	315
Negative	1	2	3	6	13	21	39	77	117	143
% Positive	0%	33%	50%	50%	64%	65%	68%	68%	68%	69%
WITHDRAWAL RATES (WR)
Safe WR (%)					37.24	21.91	12.92	9.13	7.63	9.67
Perpetual WR (%)					0.74	0.94	3.05	4.39	4.60	5.68

Terms and Definitions

Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio
Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean
Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return.
Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation).
Maximum Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.
Rolling Returns: returns over a time frame (best, worst, % of positive returns).
Pos./Neg. Months: number of months with positive/negative return.
Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the original portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money (dollar amount withdrawal).
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year, while retaining the inflation adjusted portfolio balance (percentage withdrawal).

Portfolio Components Correlation

Correlation measures to what degree the returns of the two assets move in relation to each other.

Correlation coefficient is a numerical value between -1 and +1.

If one variable goes up by a certain amount, the correlation coefficient indicates which way the other variable moves and by how much.

Asset correlations are calculated based on monthly returns.

COMPONENTS MONTHLY CORRELATIONS

Monthly correlations as of 28 February 2023

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Asset	VTV	VV	IJS	VNQ	EFV	EEM	IJR	VGK	VPL	SHY	TIP	GLTR
VTV	1.00	0.92	0.92	0.79	0.87	0.59	0.92	0.88	0.80	0.50	0.78	0.29
VV	0.92	1.00	0.94	0.90	0.83	0.63	0.96	0.88	0.85	0.51	0.86	0.31
IJS	0.92	0.94	1.00	0.83	0.83	0.58	0.99	0.87	0.79	0.58	0.85	0.18
VNQ	0.79	0.90	0.83	1.00	0.78	0.70	0.84	0.83	0.86	0.52	0.86	0.45
EFV	0.87	0.83	0.83	0.78	1.00	0.85	0.82	0.99	0.95	0.73	0.79	0.54
EEM	0.59	0.63	0.58	0.70	0.85	1.00	0.58	0.82	0.92	0.77	0.67	0.67
IJR	0.92	0.96	0.99	0.84	0.82	0.58	1.00	0.87	0.80	0.58	0.87	0.19
VGK	0.88	0.88	0.87	0.83	0.99	0.82	0.87	1.00	0.95	0.72	0.86	0.54
VPL	0.80	0.85	0.79	0.86	0.95	0.92	0.80	0.95	1.00	0.77	0.84	0.64
SHY	0.50	0.51	0.58	0.52	0.73	0.77	0.58	0.72	0.77	1.00	0.74	0.48
TIP	0.78	0.86	0.85	0.86	0.79	0.67	0.87	0.86	0.84	0.74	1.00	0.34
GLTR	0.29	0.31	0.18	0.45	0.54	0.67	0.19	0.54	0.64	0.48	0.34	1.00


Asset	VTV	VV	IJS	VNQ	EFV	EEM	IJR	VGK	VPL	SHY	TIP	GLTR
VTV	1.00	0.93	0.90	0.79	0.88	0.70	0.90	0.89	0.83	-0.08	0.43	0.26
VV	0.93	1.00	0.86	0.84	0.80	0.71	0.90	0.88	0.84	0.05	0.60	0.31
IJS	0.90	0.86	1.00	0.76	0.84	0.72	0.99	0.83	0.82	-0.08	0.41	0.18
VNQ	0.79	0.84	0.76	1.00	0.70	0.64	0.79	0.79	0.73	0.11	0.66	0.31
EFV	0.88	0.80	0.84	0.70	1.00	0.81	0.82	0.96	0.91	-0.02	0.38	0.30
EEM	0.70	0.71	0.72	0.64	0.81	1.00	0.73	0.81	0.86	0.16	0.43	0.45
IJR	0.90	0.90	0.99	0.79	0.82	0.73	1.00	0.84	0.84	-0.04	0.47	0.20
VGK	0.89	0.88	0.83	0.79	0.96	0.81	0.84	1.00	0.91	0.10	0.54	0.38
VPL	0.83	0.84	0.82	0.73	0.91	0.86	0.84	0.91	1.00	0.16	0.53	0.34
SHY	-0.08	0.05	-0.08	0.11	-0.02	0.16	-0.04	0.10	0.16	1.00	0.59	0.22
TIP	0.43	0.60	0.41	0.66	0.38	0.43	0.47	0.54	0.53	0.59	1.00	0.40
GLTR	0.26	0.31	0.18	0.31	0.30	0.45	0.20	0.38	0.34	0.22	0.40	1.00


Asset	VTV	VV	IJS	VNQ	EFV	EEM	IJR	VGK	VPL	SHY	TIP	GLTR
VTV	1.00	0.94	0.88	0.67	0.83	0.66	0.88	0.84	0.77	-0.13	0.30	0.14
VV	0.94	1.00	0.84	0.72	0.79	0.68	0.87	0.85	0.80	-0.01	0.44	0.19
IJS	0.88	0.84	1.00	0.63	0.76	0.62	0.99	0.74	0.72	-0.12	0.27	0.08
VNQ	0.67	0.72	0.63	1.00	0.58	0.52	0.65	0.63	0.62	0.17	0.64	0.24
EFV	0.83	0.79	0.76	0.58	1.00	0.79	0.74	0.96	0.88	-0.04	0.34	0.19
EEM	0.66	0.68	0.62	0.52	0.79	1.00	0.61	0.77	0.85	0.14	0.43	0.38
IJR	0.88	0.87	0.99	0.65	0.74	0.61	1.00	0.75	0.73	-0.09	0.30	0.09
VGK	0.84	0.85	0.74	0.63	0.96	0.77	0.75	1.00	0.85	0.07	0.44	0.26
VPL	0.77	0.80	0.72	0.62	0.88	0.85	0.73	0.85	1.00	0.10	0.46	0.23
SHY	-0.13	-0.01	-0.12	0.17	-0.04	0.14	-0.09	0.07	0.10	1.00	0.59	0.25
TIP	0.30	0.44	0.27	0.64	0.34	0.43	0.30	0.44	0.46	0.59	1.00	0.44
GLTR	0.14	0.19	0.08	0.24	0.19	0.38	0.09	0.26	0.23	0.25	0.44	1.00


Asset	VTV	VV	IJS	VNQ	EFV	EEM	IJR	VGK	VPL	SHY	TIP	GLTR
VTV	1.00	0.95	0.85	0.64	0.81	0.70	0.80	0.83	0.66	-0.15	0.16	0.37
VV	0.95	1.00	0.82	0.61	0.78	0.72	0.82	0.84	0.67	-0.13	0.20	0.37
IJS	0.85	0.82	1.00	0.68	0.75	0.66	0.96	0.74	0.60	-0.17	0.12	0.38
VNQ	0.64	0.61	0.68	1.00	0.61	0.51	0.64	0.59	0.48	-0.02	0.32	0.37
EFV	0.81	0.78	0.75	0.61	1.00	0.78	0.72	0.94	0.83	-0.14	0.17	0.47
EEM	0.70	0.72	0.66	0.51	0.78	1.00	0.69	0.77	0.74	-0.09	0.19	0.60
IJR	0.80	0.82	0.96	0.64	0.72	0.69	1.00	0.74	0.63	-0.19	0.11	0.40
VGK	0.83	0.84	0.74	0.59	0.94	0.77	0.74	1.00	0.72	-0.10	0.20	0.44
VPL	0.66	0.67	0.60	0.48	0.83	0.74	0.63	0.72	1.00	-0.10	0.20	0.50
SHY	-0.15	-0.13	-0.17	-0.02	-0.14	-0.09	-0.19	-0.10	-0.10	1.00	0.62	0.01
TIP	0.16	0.20	0.12	0.32	0.17	0.19	0.11	0.20	0.20	0.62	1.00	0.26
GLTR	0.37	0.37	0.38	0.37	0.47	0.60	0.40	0.44	0.50	0.01	0.26	1.00


Asset	VTV	VV	IJS	VNQ	EFV	EEM	IJR	VGK	VPL	SHY	TIP	GLTR
VTV	1.00	0.95	0.86	0.63	0.83	0.68	0.81	0.79	0.55	-0.04	0.21	0.32
VV	0.95	1.00	0.83	0.60	0.81	0.69	0.84	0.79	0.57	-0.02	0.24	0.32
IJS	0.86	0.83	1.00	0.69	0.77	0.64	0.96	0.71	0.51	-0.10	0.14	0.34
VNQ	0.63	0.60	0.69	1.00	0.60	0.48	0.65	0.57	0.41	0.01	0.29	0.34
EFV	0.83	0.81	0.77	0.60	1.00	0.71	0.74	0.89	0.71	-0.02	0.21	0.41
EEM	0.68	0.69	0.64	0.48	0.71	1.00	0.66	0.68	0.59	0.02	0.21	0.44
IJR	0.81	0.84	0.96	0.65	0.74	0.66	1.00	0.70	0.51	-0.12	0.12	0.34
VGK	0.79	0.79	0.71	0.57	0.89	0.68	0.70	1.00	0.68	0.01	0.22	0.41
VPL	0.55	0.57	0.51	0.41	0.71	0.59	0.51	0.68	1.00	0.01	0.20	0.42
SHY	-0.04	-0.02	-0.10	0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.12	0.01	0.01	1.00	0.71	-0.03
TIP	0.21	0.24	0.14	0.29	0.21	0.21	0.12	0.22	0.20	0.71	1.00	0.14
GLTR	0.32	0.32	0.34	0.34	0.41	0.44	0.34	0.41	0.42	-0.03	0.14	1.00

Portfolio Dividends

In 2022, the Bill Bernstein Sheltered Sam 60/40 Portfolio granted a 2.45% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Bill Bernstein Sheltered Sam 60/40 Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.

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Capital Growth as of Feb 28, 2023

An investment of 1000$, since March 1993, now would be worth 8632.73$, with a total return of 763.27% (7.45% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 4106.31$, with a net total return of 310.63% (4.82% annualized).

An investment of 1000$, since January 1985, now would be worth 26618.80$, with a total return of 2561.88% (8.98% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 9317.11$, with a net total return of 831.71% (6.02% annualized).

Drawdowns

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	Drawdown period			Recovery period		Total
Drawdown	Start	Bottom	#Months	End	#Months	#Months
-34.12%	Nov 2007	Feb 2009	16	Dec 2010	22	38
-16.48%	Jan 2022	Sep 2022	9	in progress	5	14
-14.38%	Jan 2020	Mar 2020	3	Nov 2020	8	11
-11.25%	May 2011	Sep 2011	5	Feb 2012	5	10
-10.89%	May 1998	Aug 1998	4	Dec 1998	4	8
-10.65%	Jun 2002	Sep 2002	4	Jun 2003	9	13
-7.95%	Feb 2001	Sep 2001	8	Mar 2002	6	14
-7.94%	Sep 2018	Dec 2018	4	Apr 2019	4	8
-6.29%	Jun 2015	Jan 2016	8	Jun 2016	5	13
-6.11%	Feb 1994	Jun 1994	5	Apr 1995	10	15
-4.47%	Apr 2012	May 2012	2	Aug 2012	3	5
-3.90%	Apr 2004	Apr 2004	1	Sep 2004	5	6
-3.44%	May 2019	May 2019	1	Jun 2019	1	2
-3.25%	Sep 2000	Nov 2000	3	Dec 2000	1	4
-3.16%	Feb 2018	Mar 2018	2	Jul 2018	4	6
-3.11%	Jun 2007	Jul 2007	2	Sep 2007	2	4
-2.73%	Aug 1997	Aug 1997	1	Sep 1997	1	2
-2.73%	Sep 2014	Sep 2014	1	Nov 2014	2	3
-2.69%	Feb 1999	Feb 1999	1	Apr 1999	2	3
-2.59%	Oct 1997	Oct 1997	1	Dec 1997	2	3

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	Drawdown period			Recovery period		Total
Drawdown	Start	Bottom	#Months	End	#Months	#Months
-34.12%	Nov 2007	Feb 2009	16	Dec 2010	22	38
-16.48%	Jan 2022	Sep 2022	9	in progress	5	14
-16.09%	Sep 1987	Nov 1987	3	Jan 1989	14	17
-14.38%	Jan 2020	Mar 2020	3	Nov 2020	8	11
-11.25%	May 2011	Sep 2011	5	Feb 2012	5	10
-10.89%	May 1998	Aug 1998	4	Dec 1998	4	8
-10.65%	Jun 2002	Sep 2002	4	Jun 2003	9	13
-9.53%	Aug 1990	Sep 1990	2	Feb 1991	5	7
-7.95%	Feb 2001	Sep 2001	8	Mar 2002	6	14
-7.94%	Sep 2018	Dec 2018	4	Apr 2019	4	8
-6.29%	Jun 2015	Jan 2016	8	Jun 2016	5	13
-6.11%	Feb 1994	Jun 1994	5	Apr 1995	10	15
-5.45%	Jan 1990	Apr 1990	4	Jul 1990	3	7
-4.47%	Apr 2012	May 2012	2	Aug 2012	3	5
-3.90%	Apr 2004	Apr 2004	1	Sep 2004	5	6
-3.67%	Sep 1986	Sep 1986	1	Nov 1986	2	3
-3.44%	May 2019	May 2019	1	Jun 2019	1	2
-3.25%	Sep 2000	Nov 2000	3	Dec 2000	1	4
-3.16%	Feb 2018	Mar 2018	2	Jul 2018	4	6
-3.11%	Jun 2007	Jul 2007	2	Sep 2007	2	4

Rolling Returns ( more details)

Bill Bernstein Sheltered Sam 60/40 Portfolio: annualized rolling and average returns

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Rolling Period	*Return ()**			Negative Periods
Rolling Period	Average (%)	Best (%)	Worst (%)	Negative Periods
1 Year	9.34	37.75 Mar 2009 - Feb 2010	-29.82 Mar 2008 - Feb 2009	16.33%
2 Years	9.00	27.10 Apr 1985 - Mar 1987	-15.74 Mar 2007 - Feb 2009	6.90%
3 Years	8.71	19.30 Nov 1990 - Oct 1993	-7.40 Mar 2006 - Feb 2009	5.44%
5 Years	8.60	17.49 Jan 1985 - Dec 1989	-0.65 Mar 2004 - Feb 2009	0.25%
7 Years	8.57	15.27 Oct 1990 - Sep 1997	2.57 Mar 2002 - Feb 2009	0.00%
10 Years	8.50	13.39 Oct 1985 - Sep 1995	3.64 Mar 1999 - Feb 2009	0.00%
15 Years	8.21	13.38 Jan 1985 - Dec 1999	4.56 Oct 2007 - Sep 2022	0.00%
20 Years	8.27	11.89 Jan 1985 - Dec 2004	5.71 Apr 2000 - Mar 2020	0.00%
30 Years	8.51	10.05 Jan 1985 - Dec 2014	7.39 Oct 1992 - Sep 2022	0.00%

(*) Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods

If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Bill Bernstein Sheltered Sam 60/40 Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.

Seasonality

In which months is it better to invest in Bill Bernstein Sheltered Sam 60/40 Portfolio?

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.

For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.

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	Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%)	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Average Gain Frequency	1.47 60%	-0.72 40%	-1.16 60%	1.31 80%	0.41 80%	0.05 80%	1.96 100%	0.25 60%	-1.99 20%	0.89 60%	2.64 80%	0.27 60%
Capital Growth on monthly avg returns
100	101.47	100.74	99.57	100.88	101.28	101.33	103.32	103.57	101.51	102.41	105.11	105.39
Best	5.5 2019	2.5 2021	2.7 2021	6.0 2020	2.2 2020	4.1 2019	4.4 2022	2.9 2020	1.7 2019	5.1 2022	7.5 2020	3.5 2021
Worst	-2.6 2022	-4.5 2020	-9.5 2020	-4.2 2022	-3.4 2019	-5.4 2022	0.3 2019	-3.1 2022	-6.8 2022	-4.4 2018	-1.7 2021	-4.7 2018

Monthly Seasonality over the period Mar 2018 - Feb 2023

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	Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%)	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Average Gain Frequency	0.59 50%	0.04 60%	0.13 70%	1.05 90%	0.35 80%	0.07 70%	1.62 90%	-0.29 50%	-0.91 40%	1.27 70%	1.87 80%	0.30 60%
Capital Growth on monthly avg returns
100	100.59	100.64	100.77	101.83	102.18	102.25	103.91	103.61	102.67	103.97	105.92	106.24
Best	5.5 2019	2.9 2014	4.9 2016	6.0 2020	2.2 2020	4.1 2019	4.4 2022	2.9 2020	3.1 2013	5.1 2022	7.5 2020	3.5 2021
Worst	-2.6 2022	-4.5 2020	-9.5 2020	-4.2 2022	-3.4 2019	-5.4 2022	-1.2 2014	-3.7 2015	-6.8 2022	-4.4 2018	-1.7 2021	-4.7 2018

Monthly Seasonality over the period Mar 2013 - Feb 2023

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	Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%)	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Average Gain Frequency	0.97 67%	0.52 67%	0.87 74%	1.28 82%	0.88 71%	0.35 66%	1.01 68%	0.12 63%	-0.19 55%	0.50 66%	1.14 68%	1.62 79%
Capital Growth on monthly avg returns
100	100.97	101.50	102.38	103.69	104.60	104.97	106.03	106.15	105.95	106.49	107.70	109.44
Best	7.2 1987	5.8 1986	5.8 2009	7.7 2009	5.3 1990	4.1 2019	5.6 2009	5.4 1986	5.4 2010	7.0 2011	7.5 2020	7.5 1991
Worst	-7.3 2009	-7.4 2009	-9.5 2020	-4.2 2022	-5.0 2010	-5.4 2022	-5.5 2002	-8.5 1998	-6.8 2022	-12.8 1987	-4.4 2008	-4.7 2018

Monthly Seasonality over the period Jan 1985 - Feb 2023

Monthly/Yearly Returns

Bill Bernstein Sheltered Sam 60/40 Portfolio data source starts from January 1985: let's focus on monthly and yearly returns.

We are providing two different views:

Histogram: it shows the distribution of the returns recorded so far
Plain Table: it shows the detailed monthly and yearly returns

MONTHLY RETURNS HISTOGRAM

Jan 1985 - Feb 2023

315 Positive Months (69%) - 143 Negative Months (31%)

MONTHLY RETURNS TABLE

Jan 1985 - Feb 2023

(Scroll down to see all data)

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	Yearly Return(%)		Monthly Return(%)
Year	Total	Infl.Adj	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
2023	+2.28	+0.91	4.9	-2.5
2022	-10.58	-16.00	-2.6	-0.7	0.6	-4.2	0.5	-5.4	4.4	-3.1	-6.8	5.1	4.6	-2.5
2021	+14.69	+7.15	0.6	2.5	2.7	2.5	1.7	0.1	0.5	1.2	-2.5	3.1	-1.7	3.5
2020	+7.21	+5.77	-0.9	-4.5	-9.5	6.0	2.2	1.3	2.9	2.9	-1.9	-0.8	7.5	3.2
2019	+17.21	+14.59	5.5	1.6	0.5	1.9	-3.4	4.1	0.3	-0.8	1.7	1.5	1.3	2.0
2018	-5.00	-6.78	2.0	-3.0	-0.1	0.3	1.1	0.2	1.7	1.1	-0.4	-4.4	1.5	-4.7
2017	+11.37	+9.07	1.0	1.7	0.1	0.6	0.3	0.7	1.3	0.0	1.7	0.9	1.6	0.8
2016	+9.92	+7.69	-2.6	0.2	4.9	0.8	0.1	1.3	2.6	-0.1	0.3	-1.6	2.1	1.6
2015	-1.72	-2.44	-0.3	2.3	-0.4	0.4	0.1	-1.4	0.4	-3.7	-1.6	4.1	0.0	-1.4
2014	+6.04	+5.24	-1.5	2.9	0.5	0.6	1.3	1.5	-1.2	1.9	-2.7	2.2	0.8	-0.2
2013	+14.05	+12.37	2.8	0.3	1.9	1.6	-0.4	-1.6	3.3	-2.2	3.1	2.6	1.1	0.9
2012	+11.12	+9.22	3.9	1.8	1.2	-0.3	-4.2	2.9	0.7	1.5	1.6	-0.5	0.6	1.6
2011	+1.31	-1.61	1.0	2.5	0.2	2.9	-1.0	-1.1	-0.4	-3.6	-5.6	7.0	-0.4	0.5
2010	+12.35	+10.69	-1.8	1.6	4.2	1.9	-5.0	-2.8	4.6	-2.2	5.4	2.8	-0.7	4.4
2009	+18.56	+15.42	-7.3	-7.4	5.8	7.7	4.6	-0.5	5.6	3.2	3.2	-2.0	4.0	1.5
2008	-20.58	-20.66	-2.1	-0.8	0.2	2.3	0.9	-4.8	-0.5	0.6	-4.9	-12.5	-4.4	4.2
2007	+5.25	+1.12	1.3	-0.3	1.0	2.1	1.8	-1.1	-2.0	1.2	2.8	1.9	-2.4	-0.9
2006	+14.67	+11.83	3.6	0.0	1.7	1.2	-2.3	0.6	0.8	1.8	0.9	2.8	2.1	0.7
2005	+7.42	+3.87	-1.7	2.0	-1.4	-0.8	2.1	1.5	2.2	0.4	1.4	-2.0	2.5	1.2
2004	+12.90	+9.34	1.4	1.7	0.8	-3.9	1.4	1.8	-1.5	1.6	1.4	1.6	3.6	2.4
2003	+24.15	+21.86	-1.6	-0.6	-0.4	4.8	5.2	1.3	1.2	2.2	0.8	4.0	1.6	3.7
2002	-3.47	-5.71	-0.3	0.4	3.2	0.2	0.6	-2.6	-5.5	1.3	-4.2	1.6	2.8	-0.6
2001	+0.06	-1.47	2.9	-3.1	-2.7	4.1	0.9	-0.5	-0.5	-1.2	-5.1	1.5	2.7	1.3
2000	+6.26	+2.78	-2.5	0.2	3.9	-1.0	-0.7	1.9	0.5	3.1	-1.0	-0.2	-2.1	4.2
1999	+10.16	+7.28	0.7	-2.7	2.2	4.9	-1.3	2.7	-1.0	-1.0	-0.5	1.6	1.0	3.4
1998	+8.53	+6.81	0.6	3.6	2.7	0.6	-1.5	0.5	-1.6	-8.5	3.8	3.9	2.9	1.9
1997	+15.72	+13.78	1.5	0.7	-2.1	1.7	4.3	3.1	4.3	-2.7	4.3	-2.6	1.1	1.6
1996	+12.97	+9.34	1.8	-0.1	0.7	1.0	1.1	0.1	-2.5	1.7	2.7	1.7	4.2	0.0
1995	+22.13	+19.10	0.3	2.4	1.9	2.2	3.1	1.2	2.4	0.6	1.9	-1.0	2.9	2.4
1994	-1.78	-4.34	3.1	-2.4	-3.7	0.8	0.3	-1.2	2.3	2.3	-2.1	0.6	-2.8	1.3
1993	+19.41	+16.22	2.5	2.3	3.1	0.4	1.1	1.5	1.5	2.9	0.1	1.6	-2.2	3.0
1992	+8.86	+5.79	0.4	0.9	-1.4	1.5	2.3	-1.0	2.6	-0.5	0.9	-0.9	1.7	1.9
1991	+24.84	+21.12	3.4	4.8	1.6	1.1	2.7	-2.9	2.7	2.0	0.8	1.6	-2.4	7.5
1990	-3.41	-8.97	-4.0	0.3	0.4	-2.2	5.3	0.3	0.6	-6.1	-3.6	0.8	3.5	1.9
1989	+21.08	+15.70	3.9	-0.6	0.9	3.3	2.6	0.9	4.7	1.0	0.7	-1.4	1.6	1.8
1988	+14.93	+10.07	4.1	3.4	-0.6	0.7	-0.3	3.7	-0.2	-1.7	2.7	1.9	-0.8	1.2
1987	+3.35	-1.04	7.2	2.5	1.6	-0.7	-0.3	2.6	3.0	1.9	-1.4	-12.8	-2.3	3.5
1986	+21.08	+19.77	1.5	5.8	5.1	0.3	1.2	2.8	-1.9	5.4	-3.7	2.3	1.8	-0.8
1985	+28.54	+23.83	5.4	0.6	1.4	1.2	5.1	1.6	0.0	0.4	-1.6	3.3	4.5	3.6

Portofolio Returns, up to December 2010, are simulated. They have been calculated using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.

In particular, it has been used:

VTV - Vanguard Value: simulated historical serie, up to December 2004
VV - Vanguard Large-Cap: simulated historical serie, up to December 2004
IJS - iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value: simulated historical serie, up to December 2000
VNQ - Vanguard Real Estate: simulated historical serie, up to December 2004
EFV - iShares MSCI EAFE Value: simulated historical serie, up to December 2005
EEM - iShares MSCI Emerging Markets: simulated historical serie, up to December 2003
IJR - iShares Core S&P Small-Cap: simulated historical serie, up to December 2000
VGK - Vanguard FTSE Europe: simulated historical serie, up to December 2005
VPL - Vanguard FTSE Pacific: simulated historical serie, up to December 2005
SHY - iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond: simulated historical serie, up to December 2002
TIP - iShares TIPS Bond: simulated historical serie, up to December 2003
GLTR - Aberdeen Standard Physical Precious Metals Basket Shares: simulated historical serie, up to December 2010

Portfolio efficiency

Compared to the Bill Bernstein Sheltered Sam 60/40 Portfolio, the following portfolios granted a higher return over 30 Years and a less severe drawdown at the same time.

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	30 Years Stats (%)			% Allocation
Portfolio	Return▾	Dev.Std	Drawdown	Stocks	Bonds	Comm
Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Momentum	+9.38	9.41	-32.52	60	40	0
Stocks/Bonds 60/40	+7.88	9.46	-30.55	60	40	0
Couch Potato Scott Burns	+7.85	8.66	-27.04	50	50	0
Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Momentum	+7.82	6.84	-21.11	40	60	0
Golden Butterfly	+7.66	7.52	-17.79	40	40	20
Coffeehouse Bill Schultheis	+7.64	9.53	-33.93	60	40	0
Sheltered Sam 60/40 Bill Bernstein	+7.45	9.15	-34.12	58.2	40	1.8

Here's a list containing the Best Classic Portfolios, with the highest returns over 30 Years and High Risk categorization.

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	30 Years Stats (%)			% Allocation
Portfolio	Return▾	Dev.Std	Drawdown	Stocks	Bonds	Comm
Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Momentum	+9.38	9.41	-32.52	60	40	0
Simple Path to Wealth JL Collins	+8.61	11.61	-38.53	75	25	0
Late Sixties and Beyond Burton Malkiel	+8.34	11.59	-41.80	71	29	0
Yale Endowment David Swensen	+8.23	10.84	-39.48	70	30	0
Seven Value Scott Burns	+8.14	11.26	-41.22	71.5	28.5	0