Last Update: 31 July 2022

Implementing the Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to obtain a positive return?

Considering all 10 years rolling periods, you would have obtained a positive returns 100.00% of times

Considering all 4 years rolling periods, you would have obtained a positive returns 96.43% of times

All the returns are calculated over the available historical serie, starting from January 1986 until July 2022.

In order to have complete information about the portfolio, please refer to the Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns page.

Rolling Returns

Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio: annualized rolling and average returns

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Rolling
Period
Return (*) Negative
Periods
Average (%) Best (%) Worst (%)
1 Year
9.24 46.17
Apr 2020 - Mar 2021
-34.04
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009
20.79%
2 Years
8.61 30.92
Mar 2009 - Feb 2011
-18.55
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009
12.02%
3 Years
8.36 20.22
Apr 2003 - Mar 2006
-9.55
Mar 2006 - Feb 2009
10.15%
4 Years
8.21 17.68
Apr 2003 - Mar 2007
-4.70
Mar 2005 - Feb 2009
3.57%
5 Years
8.21 17.42
Mar 2009 - Feb 2014
-1.78
Mar 2004 - Feb 2009
1.05%
6 Years
8.16 15.48
Mar 2009 - Feb 2015
2.65
Oct 2005 - Sep 2011
0.00%
7 Years
8.11 14.87
Oct 1990 - Sep 1997
1.23
Mar 2002 - Feb 2009
0.00%
8 Years
8.09 13.38
Apr 1992 - Mar 2000
0.66
Mar 2001 - Feb 2009
0.00%
9 Years
8.08 13.95
Jan 1991 - Dec 1999
-0.40
Mar 2000 - Feb 2009
0.30%
10 Years
8.03 13.10
Oct 1990 - Sep 2000
1.74
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009
0.00%
11 Years
7.95 12.44
Feb 1986 - Jan 1997
1.87
Mar 1998 - Feb 2009
0.00%
12 Years
7.87 12.69
Jan 1986 - Dec 1997
3.35
Mar 1997 - Feb 2009
0.00%
13 Years
7.76 12.66
Feb 1986 - Jan 1999
3.98
Mar 1996 - Feb 2009
0.00%
14 Years
7.61 13.10
Jan 1986 - Dec 1999
4.70
Oct 1997 - Sep 2011
0.00%
15 Years
7.56 11.92
Feb 1986 - Jan 2001
4.83
Mar 1994 - Feb 2009
0.00%
16 Years
7.58 10.72
Jan 1986 - Dec 2001
4.74
Mar 2000 - Feb 2016
0.00%
17 Years
7.62 10.58
Nov 1990 - Oct 2007
5.45
Jan 2000 - Dec 2016
0.00%
18 Years
7.67 10.27
Feb 1986 - Jan 2004
5.60
Mar 1998 - Feb 2016
0.00%
19 Years
7.67 10.43
Jan 1986 - Dec 2004
5.31
Jan 2000 - Dec 2018
0.00%
20 Years
7.60 10.46
Feb 1986 - Jan 2006
4.80
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020
0.00%
(*) Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods

Annualized Rolling Returns - 1 Year (12 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+9.24% +46.17%
Apr 2020 - Mar 2021
-34.04%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009
20.79%
89 out of 428
1 Year Annualized Rolling Returns over time
1 Year Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 2 Years (24 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+8.61% +30.92%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2011
-18.55%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009
12.02%
50 out of 416
2 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
2 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 3 Years (36 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+8.36% +20.22%
Apr 2003 - Mar 2006
-9.55%
Mar 2006 - Feb 2009
10.15%
41 out of 404
3 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
3 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 4 Years (48 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+8.21% +17.68%
Apr 2003 - Mar 2007
-4.70%
Mar 2005 - Feb 2009
3.57%
14 out of 392
4 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
4 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 5 Years (60 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+8.21% +17.42%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2014
-1.78%
Mar 2004 - Feb 2009
1.05%
4 out of 380
5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 6 Years (72 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+8.16% +15.48%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2015
+2.65%
Oct 2005 - Sep 2011
0.00%
0 out of 368
6 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
6 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 7 Years (84 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+8.11% +14.87%
Oct 1990 - Sep 1997
+1.23%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2009
0.00%
0 out of 356
7 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
7 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 8 Years (96 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+8.09% +13.38%
Apr 1992 - Mar 2000
+0.66%
Mar 2001 - Feb 2009
0.00%
0 out of 344
8 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
8 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 9 Years (108 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+8.08% +13.95%
Jan 1991 - Dec 1999
-0.40%
Mar 2000 - Feb 2009
0.30%
1 out of 332
9 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
9 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 10 Years (120 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+8.03% +13.10%
Oct 1990 - Sep 2000
+1.74%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009
0.00%
0 out of 320
10 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
10 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 11 Years (132 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+7.95% +12.44%
Feb 1986 - Jan 1997
+1.87%
Mar 1998 - Feb 2009
0.00%
0 out of 308
11 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
11 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 12 Years (144 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+7.87% +12.69%
Jan 1986 - Dec 1997
+3.35%
Mar 1997 - Feb 2009
0.00%
0 out of 296
12 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
12 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 13 Years (156 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+7.76% +12.66%
Feb 1986 - Jan 1999
+3.98%
Mar 1996 - Feb 2009
0.00%
0 out of 284
13 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
13 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 14 Years (168 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+7.61% +13.10%
Jan 1986 - Dec 1999
+4.70%
Oct 1997 - Sep 2011
0.00%
0 out of 272
14 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
14 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 15 Years (180 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+7.56% +11.92%
Feb 1986 - Jan 2001
+4.83%
Mar 1994 - Feb 2009
0.00%
0 out of 260
15 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
15 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 16 Years (192 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+7.58% +10.72%
Jan 1986 - Dec 2001
+4.74%
Mar 2000 - Feb 2016
0.00%
0 out of 248
16 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
16 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 17 Years (204 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+7.62% +10.58%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2007
+5.45%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2016
0.00%
0 out of 236
17 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
17 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 18 Years (216 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+7.67% +10.27%
Feb 1986 - Jan 2004
+5.60%
Mar 1998 - Feb 2016
0.00%
0 out of 224
18 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
18 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 19 Years (228 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+7.67% +10.43%
Jan 1986 - Dec 2004
+5.31%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2018
0.00%
0 out of 212
19 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
19 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 20 Years (240 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+7.60% +10.46%
Feb 1986 - Jan 2006
+4.80%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020
0.00%
0 out of 200
20 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time
20 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

In order to have complete information about the portfolio, please refer to the Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns page.

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