Data Source: from January 1994 to December 2021
Last Update: 31 December 2021
The Bill Bernstein Coward's Portfolio is exposed for 60% on the Stock Market.
It's a High Risk portfolio and it can be replicated with 10 ETFs.
In the last 10 years, the portfolio obtained a 8.73% compound annual return, with a 8.25% standard deviation.
In the last 25 years, a 7.46% compound annual return, with a 9.46% standard deviation.
Asset Allocation and ETFs
The Bill Bernstein Coward's Portfolio has the following asset allocation:
The Bill Bernstein Coward's Portfolio can be replicated with the following ETFs:
| Weight | Ticker | ETF Name | Investment Themes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.00 % | VV | Vanguard Large-Cap | Equity, U.S., Large Cap | |
| 10.00 % | IJS | iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value | Equity, U.S., Small Cap, Value | |
| 10.00 % | VTV | Vanguard Value | Equity, U.S., Large Cap, Value | |
| 5.00 % | IJR | iShares Core S&P Small-Cap | Equity, U.S., Small Cap | |
| 5.00 % | EEM | iShares MSCI Emerging Markets | Equity, Emerging Markets, Large Cap | |
| 5.00 % | VGK | Vanguard FTSE Europe | Equity, Developed Europe, Large Cap | |
| 5.00 % | VPL | Vanguard FTSE Pacific | Equity, Developed Asia Pacific, Large Cap | |
| 5.00 % | VNQ | Vanguard Real Estate | Real Estate, U.S. | |
| 28.00 % | SHY | iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond | Bond, U.S., Short Term | |
| 12.00 % | LQD | iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond | Bond, U.S., All-Term |
Portfolio and ETF Returns
The Bill Bernstein Coward's Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.
| 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y(*) | 5Y(*) | 10Y(*) | 20Y(*) | 25Y(*) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Bernstein Coward's Portfolio | +3.13 | +4.27 | +2.96 | +13.47 | +13.23 | +9.10 | +8.73 | +7.36 | +7.46 |
| --- Inflation Adjusted return | +2.65 | +2.02 | -0.42 | +5.92 | +9.37 | +6.00 | +6.47 | +4.94 | +5.05 |
| Components | |||||||||
|
VV Vanguard Large-Cap |
+4.17 | +10.38 | +10.81 | +27.40 | +26.47 | +18.72 | +16.63 | +9.69 | +9.88 |
|
IJS iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value |
+4.12 | +4.30 | +0.09 | +30.53 | +18.47 | +10.04 | +13.33 | +9.82 | +10.48 |
|
VTV Vanguard Value |
+6.95 | +9.34 | +8.31 | +26.51 | +17.58 | +12.48 | +13.74 | +8.48 | +8.66 |
|
IJR iShares Core S&P Small-Cap |
+4.50 | +5.57 | +2.49 | +26.60 | +20.05 | +12.37 | +14.47 | +10.68 | +10.37 |
|
EEM iShares MSCI Emerging Markets |
+1.53 | -1.57 | -10.09 | -3.61 | +10.06 | +9.16 | +4.73 | +8.87 | +5.94 |
|
VGK Vanguard FTSE Europe |
+5.20 | +5.08 | +3.11 | +16.88 | +15.69 | +10.84 | +8.67 | +6.52 | +6.50 |
|
VPL Vanguard FTSE Pacific |
+3.01 | -1.90 | -2.99 | +1.12 | +11.71 | +8.99 | +7.95 | +6.65 | +3.51 |
|
VNQ Vanguard Real Estate |
+9.69 | +15.03 | +15.74 | +40.52 | +19.96 | +11.22 | +11.50 | +10.89 | +9.94 |
|
SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond |
-0.21 | -0.60 | -0.57 | -0.72 | +1.88 | +1.47 | +0.95 | +2.17 | +3.01 |
|
LQD iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond |
-0.03 | +0.38 | -0.08 | -1.85 | +8.53 | +5.66 | +4.94 | +5.65 | +5.93 |
- a rebalancing of the components at the beginning of each year (i.e. at every January 1st)
- the reinvestment of dividends
Inflation is updated to Dec 2021. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 7.12% , 3Y: 3.53% , 5Y: 2.92% , 10Y: 2.12% , 20Y: 2.31% , 25Y: 2.29%
In 2021, the portfolio granted a 1.73% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Bill Bernstein Coward's Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.
Historical Returns
Historical returns and stats of Bill Bernstein Coward's Portfolio. Total Returns and Inflation Adjusted Returns are both mentioned.
| Period | Return Dec 2021 update |
Return Inflation Adjusted |
Standard Deviation(*) |
Max Drawdown |
Months Pos - Neg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1M
Dec 2021
|
+3.13%
|
+2.65%
|
0.00%
|
1 - 0
|
|
|
3M
|
+4.27%
|
+2.02%
|
-1.73%
Nov 2021 - Nov 2021
|
2 - 1
|
|
|
6M
|
+2.96%
|
-0.42%
|
-2.51%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
|
3 - 3
|
|
|
YTD
|
+13.47%
|
+5.92%
|
5.97%
|
-2.51%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
|
9 - 3
75% pos
|
|
1Y
|
+13.47%
|
+5.92%
|
5.97%
|
-2.51%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
|
9 - 3
75% pos
|
|
3Y
|
+13.23%
annualized
|
+9.37%
annualized
|
11.00%
|
-15.13%
Jan 2020 - Mar 2020
|
26 - 10
72% pos
|
|
5Y
|
+9.10%
annualized
|
+6.00%
annualized
|
9.56%
|
-15.13%
Jan 2020 - Mar 2020
|
43 - 17
72% pos
|
|
10Y
|
+8.73%
annualized
|
+6.47%
annualized
|
8.25%
|
-15.13%
Jan 2020 - Mar 2020
|
85 - 35
71% pos
|
|
20Y
|
+7.36%
annualized
|
+4.94%
annualized
|
9.47%
|
-33.85%
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
|
161 - 79
67% pos
|
|
25Y
|
+7.46%
annualized
|
+5.05%
annualized
|
9.46%
|
-33.85%
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
|
198 - 102
66% pos
|
|
MAX
01 Jan 1994
|
+7.81%
annualized
|
+5.34%
annualized
|
9.18%
|
-33.85%
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
|
227 - 109
68% pos
|
Portfolio efficiency
Is the Bill Bernstein Coward's Portfolio actually efficient, compared to other Lazy Portfolios?
Best Classic Portfolios, with High Risk, ordered by 25 Years annualized return.
25 Years Stats |
% Allocation |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | Return▾ | Drawdown | Stocks | Bonds | Comm. | ||
| Simple Path to Wealth JL Collins |
+8.96% | -38.54% | 75 | 25 | 0 | Compare | |
| Yale Endowment David Swensen |
+8.94% | -39.46% | 70 | 30 | 0 | Compare | |
| Talmud Portfolio Roger Gibson |
+8.80% | -40.18% | 66.67 | 33.33 | 0 | Compare | |
| Late Sixties and Beyond Burton Malkiel |
+8.63% | -41.80% | 71 | 29 | 0 | Compare | |
| Lazy Portfolio David Swensen |
+8.41% | -40.88% | 70 | 30 | 0 | Compare | |
Our overall ratings, assigned to the Bill Bernstein Coward's Portfolio. The portfolio is classified as High Risk.
Less than 25%
25% - 49.99%
50% - 74.99%
At least 75%
| High Risk Portfolios |
All Portfolios |
||
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Years Ann. Return (Inflation Adjusted) |
+7.46%
(+5.05%) |
Average : 2.4 / 5
|
Good : 3.2 / 5
|
| Standard Deviation over 25 Years |
9.46% |
Good : 3.5 / 5
|
Good : 3.5 / 5
|
| Maximum Drawdown over 25 Years |
-33.85% |
Good : 3.4 / 5
|
Average : 2.9 / 5
|
| Easy to manage | 10 ETFs |
Poor : 1 / 5
|
Poor : 1 / 5
|
| Rating assigned considering all the High Risk Portfolios | Rating assigned considering all the Portfolios in the database |
Capital Growth
An investment of 1000$, since January 1997, now would be worth 6037.40$, with a total return of 503.74% (7.46% annualized).
The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 3428.19$, with a net total return of 242.82% (5.05% annualized).
Drawdowns
Worst drawdowns since January 1997 - Chart and Data
Drawdown period |
Recovery period |
Total |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drawdown | Start | Bottom | #Months | End | #Months | #Months |
| -33.85% | Nov 2007 | Feb 2009 | 16 | Dec 2010 | 22 | 38 |
| -15.13% | Jan 2020 | Mar 2020 | 3 | Nov 2020 | 8 | 11 |
| -11.86% | May 2011 | Sep 2011 | 5 | Feb 2012 | 5 | 10 |
| -11.84% | Feb 2001 | Sep 2002 | 20 | Jul 2003 | 10 | 30 |
| -11.38% | May 1998 | Aug 1998 | 4 | Dec 1998 | 4 | 8 |
| -8.66% | Sep 2018 | Dec 2018 | 4 | Apr 2019 | 4 | 8 |
| -6.47% | Jun 2015 | Jan 2016 | 8 | Jun 2016 | 5 | 13 |
| -4.88% | Apr 2012 | May 2012 | 2 | Aug 2012 | 3 | 5 |
| -4.68% | Sep 2000 | Nov 2000 | 3 | Jan 2001 | 2 | 5 |
| -3.72% | May 2019 | May 2019 | 1 | Jun 2019 | 1 | 2 |
| -3.48% | Apr 2004 | Apr 2004 | 1 | Sep 2004 | 5 | 6 |
| -3.23% | Jun 2007 | Jul 2007 | 2 | Sep 2007 | 2 | 4 |
| -3.19% | Feb 2018 | Mar 2018 | 2 | Jul 2018 | 4 | 6 |
| -2.92% | Oct 1997 | Oct 1997 | 1 | Feb 1998 | 4 | 5 |
| -2.77% | Aug 1997 | Aug 1997 | 1 | Sep 1997 | 1 | 2 |
| -2.66% | Feb 1999 | Feb 1999 | 1 | Apr 1999 | 2 | 3 |
| -2.66% | Jul 1999 | Sep 1999 | 3 | Nov 1999 | 2 | 5 |
| -2.62% | Apr 2000 | May 2000 | 2 | Aug 2000 | 3 | 5 |
| -2.60% | Sep 2014 | Sep 2014 | 1 | Nov 2014 | 2 | 3 |
| -2.60% | May 2006 | May 2006 | 1 | Aug 2006 | 3 | 4 |
Rolling Returns ( more details)
Bill Bernstein Coward's Portfolio: annualized rolling and average returns
| Return (*) | Negative Periods |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rolling Period | Average | Best | Worst | |
| 1 Year |
+8.39% |
+38.05% Mar 2009 - Feb 2010 |
-28.57% Mar 2008 - Feb 2009 |
17.23% |
| 2 Years |
+7.86% |
+26.64% Mar 2009 - Feb 2011 |
-15.55% Mar 2007 - Feb 2009 |
10.22% |
| 3 Years |
+7.63% |
+18.22% Mar 2009 - Feb 2012 |
-7.36% Mar 2006 - Feb 2009 |
8.97% |
| 5 Years |
+7.33% |
+15.26% Mar 2009 - Feb 2014 |
-0.84% Mar 2004 - Feb 2009 |
0.72% |
| 7 Years |
+7.09% |
+10.85% Apr 2009 - Mar 2016 |
+2.09% Mar 2002 - Feb 2009 |
0.00% |
| 10 Years |
+7.12% |
+10.29% Mar 2009 - Feb 2019 |
+3.20% Mar 1999 - Feb 2009 |
0.00% |
| 15 Years |
+6.84% |
+8.34% Feb 2003 - Jan 2018 |
+5.46% Apr 2005 - Mar 2020 |
0.00% |
| 20 Years |
+7.08% |
+8.39% Dec 1994 - Nov 2014 |
+5.49% Apr 2000 - Mar 2020 |
0.00% |
* Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods
If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Bill Bernstein Coward's Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.
Seasonality
Bill Bernstein Coward's Portfolio Seasonality: in which months is it better to invest?
In the table below, the average monthly return is represented.
Below each return, it's also mentioned the probability of obtaining a positive monthly result (Win %).
Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.
| Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return (%) | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
| Average Win % |
0.35 61% |
0.14 64% |
0.67 71% |
1.69 82% |
0.40 64% |
0.45 64% |
0.72 61% |
0.01 64% |
0.15 57% |
0.67 64% |
1.20 75% |
1.51 82% |
| Best Year |
5.9 2019 |
4.0 1998 |
5.3 2016 |
8.4 2009 |
4.7 2003 |
4.4 2019 |
6.2 2009 |
3.0 2000 |
5.4 2010 |
7.2 2011 |
8.1 2020 |
4.9 2008 |
| Worst Year |
-7.3 2009 |
-7.5 2009 |
-10.1 2020 |
-3.5 2004 |
-5.1 2010 |
-5.3 2008 |
-5.4 2002 |
-8.8 1998 |
-5.6 2011 |
-11.2 2008 |
-4.1 2008 |
-4.9 2018 |
For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
Monthly/Yearly Returns
Bill Bernstein Coward's Portfolio monthly and yearly returns: how is the distribution of the returns recorded so far?
Yearly Return(%) |
Monthly Return(%) |
|||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Total | Infl.Adj | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
| 2021 |
+13.47 | +5.92 | 0.6 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.3 | -2.5 | 2.9 | -1.7 | 3.1 |
| 2020 |
+8.12 | +6.74 | -1.2 | -4.5 | -10.1 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 2.6 | -1.8 | -0.6 | 8.1 | 3.3 |
| 2019 |
+18.34 | +15.72 | 5.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 2.1 | -3.7 | 4.4 | 0.3 | -0.9 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 2.1 |
| 2018 |
-5.49 | -7.27 | 2.1 | -3.1 | -0.1 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.2 | -0.5 | -4.8 | 1.4 | -4.9 |
| 2017 |
+12.63 | +10.31 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 1.4 | -0.1 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| 2016 |
+10.13 | +7.92 | -3.0 | 0.0 | 5.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 2.7 | 0.1 | 0.3 | -1.8 | 2.2 | 1.7 |
| 2015 |
-1.45 | -2.08 | -0.5 | 2.6 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | -1.3 | 0.3 | -3.8 | -1.4 | 4.1 | 0.2 | -1.5 |
| 2014 |
+6.21 | +5.52 | -1.9 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | -1.3 | 2.2 | -2.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | -0.1 |
| 2013 |
+16.08 | +14.35 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 1.9 | 1.7 | -0.1 | -1.3 | 3.3 | -2.1 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| 2012 |
+11.64 | +9.71 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | -0.5 | -4.4 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.7 | -0.5 | 0.5 | 1.9 |
| 2011 |
-0.01 | -2.98 | 0.8 | 2.3 | 0.1 | 2.5 | -0.6 | -1.1 | -0.9 | -4.0 | -5.6 | 7.2 | -0.9 | 0.9 |
| 2010 |
+12.72 | +11.12 | -1.9 | 1.9 | 4.2 | 1.9 | -5.1 | -2.6 | 5.0 | -2.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | -0.4 | 4.4 |
| 2009 |
+18.27 | +15.03 | -7.3 | -7.5 | 4.9 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 0.1 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 3.2 | -2.3 | 3.6 | 2.0 |
| 2008 |
-19.69 | -19.68 | -2.5 | -1.2 | 0.1 | 2.8 | 0.7 | -5.3 | 0.0 | 0.6 | -5.4 | -11.2 | -4.1 | 4.9 |
| 2007 |
+4.57 | +0.44 | 1.3 | -0.4 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 1.9 | -1.0 | -2.2 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 1.9 | -2.9 | -1.0 |
| 2006 |
+14.41 | +11.59 | 3.6 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 1.1 | -2.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 2005 |
+6.99 | +3.53 | -1.6 | 1.9 | -1.7 | -0.9 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 0.1 | 1.1 | -2.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 2004 |
+12.14 | +8.52 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | -3.5 | 0.9 | 1.9 | -1.7 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 3.6 | 2.3 |
| 2003 |
+23.63 | +21.17 | -1.9 | -1.0 | 0.0 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 3.9 |
| 2002 |
-5.60 | -7.88 | -0.4 | 0.2 | 3.0 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -2.8 | -5.4 | 0.7 | -4.3 | 2.2 | 2.8 | -1.2 |
| 2001 |
-0.05 | -1.62 | 3.2 | -3.6 | -2.8 | 4.0 | 0.7 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -1.3 | -5.4 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 1.5 |
| 2000 |
+3.31 | -0.13 | -2.6 | 1.0 | 3.3 | -1.5 | -1.2 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 3.0 | -1.1 | -0.7 | -2.9 | 4.0 |
| 1999 |
+12.80 | +9.86 | 0.7 | -2.7 | 2.5 | 4.6 | -1.0 | 3.0 | -1.0 | -1.1 | -0.6 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 4.1 |
| 1998 |
+8.26 | +6.54 | 0.3 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 0.4 | -1.7 | 0.6 | -1.6 | -8.8 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 2.3 |
| 1997 |
+15.65 | +13.72 | 1.8 | 0.5 | -1.8 | 1.7 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 4.0 | -2.8 | 4.3 | -2.9 | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| 1996 |
+13.38 | +9.67 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | -2.7 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 4.1 | 0.1 |
| 1995 |
+21.63 | +18.63 | 0.3 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 1.9 | -1.0 | 2.8 | 2.3 |
| 1994 |
-1.24 | -3.74 | 3.1 | -2.2 | -3.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | -1.0 | 1.9 | 2.5 | -1.8 | 0.8 | -2.9 | 0.9 |
* Note: Portofolio Returns, up to December 2005, are simulated. They have been calculated using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.
In particular, it has been used:
- VV - Vanguard Large-Cap: simulated historical serie, up to December 2004
- IJS - iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value: simulated historical serie, up to December 2000
- VTV - Vanguard Value: simulated historical serie, up to December 2004
- IJR - iShares Core S&P Small-Cap: simulated historical serie, up to December 2000
- EEM - iShares MSCI Emerging Markets: simulated historical serie, up to December 2003
- VGK - Vanguard FTSE Europe: simulated historical serie, up to December 2005
- VPL - Vanguard FTSE Pacific: simulated historical serie, up to December 2005
- VNQ - Vanguard Real Estate: simulated historical serie, up to December 2004
- SHY - iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond: simulated historical serie, up to December 2002
- LQD - iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond: simulated historical serie, up to December 2002