Data Source: from January 1986 to December 2021

Last Update: 31 December 2021

The Andrew Tobias Portfolio is exposed for 66.67% on the Stock Market.

It's a High Risk portfolio and it can be replicated with 3 ETFs.

In the last 10 years, the portfolio obtained a 8.56% compound annual return, with a 8.60% standard deviation.

In the last 25 years, a 6.57% compound annual return, with a 10.03% standard deviation.

Asset Allocation and ETFs

The Andrew Tobias Portfolio has the following asset allocation:

66.67% Stocks
33.33% Fixed Income
0% Commodities

The Andrew Tobias Portfolio can be replicated with the following ETFs:

Weight Ticker ETF Name Investment Themes
33.34 % VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market Equity, U.S., Large Cap
33.33 % EFA iShares MSCI EAFE Equity, EAFE, Large Cap
33.33 % SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond Bond, U.S., Short Term
Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

Portfolio and ETF Returns

The Andrew Tobias Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.

ANDREW TOBIAS PORTFOLIO RETURNS (%)
Last Update: 31 December 2021
Swipe left to see all data
1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y(*) 5Y(*) 10Y(*) 20Y(*) 25Y(*)
Andrew Tobias Portfolio +2.77 +4.01 +3.62 +12.14 +13.74 +9.86 +8.56 +6.62 +6.57
--- Inflation Adjusted return +2.29 +1.76 +0.22 +4.68 +9.86 +6.74 +6.31 +4.21 +4.19
Components
VTI
Vanguard Total Stock Market 		+3.79 +9.11 +9.08 +25.67 +25.73 +17.96 +16.29 +9.91 +9.88
EFA
iShares MSCI EAFE 		+4.41 +2.84 +1.71 +11.46 +13.53 +9.55 +7.92 +6.26 +5.22
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond 		-0.21 -0.60 -0.57 -0.72 +1.88 +1.47 +0.95 +2.17 +3.01
(*) annualized
Portfolio returns are calculated assuming:
  • a rebalancing of the components at the beginning of each year (i.e. at every January 1st)
  • the reinvestment of dividends

Inflation is updated to Dec 2021. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 7.12% , 3Y: 3.53% , 5Y: 2.92% , 10Y: 2.12% , 20Y: 2.31% , 25Y: 2.29%

In 2021, the portfolio granted a 1.80% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Andrew Tobias Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.

Readings that may interest you
How to Adult: Personal Finance for the Real World
Summary of Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations ...
Ray Dalio: A Biography of the Legendary Investor

Historical Returns

Historical returns and stats of Andrew Tobias Portfolio. Total Returns and Inflation Adjusted Returns are both mentioned.

ANDREW TOBIAS PORTFOLIO
Last Update: 31 December 2021
Swipe left to see all data
Period Return
Dec 2021
update		 Return
Inflation
Adjusted		 Standard
Deviation(*)		 Max
Drawdown		 Months
Pos - Neg
1M
Dec 2021
+2.77%
+2.29%
0.00%
1 - 0
3M
+4.01%
+1.76%
-2.07%
Nov 2021 - Nov 2021
2 - 1
6M
+3.62%
+0.22%
-2.75%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
4 - 2
YTD
+12.14%
+4.68%
6.27%
-2.75%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
9 - 3
75% pos
1Y
+12.14%
+4.68%
6.27%
-2.75%
Sep 2021 - Sep 2021
9 - 3
75% pos
3Y
+13.74%
annualized
+9.86%
annualized
10.82%
-13.71%
Jan 2020 - Mar 2020
25 - 11
69% pos
5Y
+9.86%
annualized
+6.74%
annualized
9.50%
-13.71%
Jan 2020 - Mar 2020
44 - 16
73% pos
10Y
+8.56%
annualized
+6.31%
annualized
8.60%
-13.71%
Jan 2020 - Mar 2020
82 - 38
68% pos
20Y
+6.62%
annualized
+4.21%
annualized
9.86%
-36.42%
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
151 - 89
63% pos
25Y
+6.57%
annualized
+4.19%
annualized
10.03%
-36.42%
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
189 - 111
63% pos
MAX
01 Jan 1986
+8.10%
annualized
+5.32%
annualized
9.90%
-36.42%
Nov 2007 - Feb 2009
282 - 150
65% pos
(*)Annualized St.Dev. of monthly returns

Portfolio efficiency

Is the Andrew Tobias Portfolio actually efficient, compared to other Lazy Portfolios?

Best Classic Portfolios, with High Risk, ordered by 25 Years annualized return.

25 Years Stats
% Allocation
Portfolio Return▾ Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm.
Simple Path to Wealth
JL Collins		 +8.96% -38.54% 75 25 0 Compare
Yale Endowment
David Swensen		 +8.94% -39.46% 70 30 0 Compare
Talmud Portfolio
Roger Gibson		 +8.80% -40.18% 66.67 33.33 0 Compare
Late Sixties and Beyond
Burton Malkiel		 +8.63% -41.80% 71 29 0 Compare
Lazy Portfolio
David Swensen		 +8.41% -40.88% 70 30 0 Compare

See all portfolios

Our overall ratings, assigned to the Andrew Tobias Portfolio. The portfolio is classified as High Risk.

Very High Risk
Bond weight:
Less than 25%
High Risk
Bond weight:
25% - 49.99%
Medium Risk
Bond weight:
50% - 74.99%
Low Risk
Bond weight:
At least 75%
High Risk
Portfolios		 All
Portfolios
25 Years Ann. Return
(Inflation Adjusted)		 +6.57%
(+4.19%)
Poor : 1 / 5
Average : 2.6 / 5
Standard Deviation
over 25 Years		 10.03%
Average : 3 / 5
Good : 3.4 / 5
Maximum Drawdown
over 25 Years		 -36.42%
Average : 2.4 / 5
Average : 2.7 / 5
Easy to manage 3 ETFs
Good : 4 / 5
Good : 4 / 5
Rating assigned considering all the High Risk Portfolios Rating assigned considering all the Portfolios in the database

Capital Growth

Time Range:

An investment of 1000$, since January 1997, now would be worth 4912.20$, with a total return of 391.22% (6.57% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 2789.27$, with a net total return of 178.93% (4.19% annualized).

Drawdowns

Time Range:

Worst drawdowns since January 1997 - Chart and Data

Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months
-36.42% Nov 2007 Feb 2009 16 Apr 2011 26 42
-25.91% Apr 2000 Sep 2002 30 Oct 2004 25 55
-13.71% Jan 2020 Mar 2020 3 Aug 2020 5 8
-13.69% May 2011 Sep 2011 5 Dec 2012 15 20
-9.73% Jul 1998 Aug 1998 2 Nov 1998 3 5
-8.88% Feb 2018 Dec 2018 11 Apr 2019 4 15
-8.81% Jun 2015 Feb 2016 9 Dec 2016 10 19
-3.79% May 2019 May 2019 1 Jun 2019 1 2
-3.65% Sep 2020 Oct 2020 2 Nov 2020 1 3
-3.64% Jan 2000 Jan 2000 1 Mar 2000 2 3
-3.41% Aug 1997 Aug 1997 1 Sep 1997 1 2
-3.18% Oct 1997 Oct 1997 1 Jan 1998 3 4
-2.75% Sep 2021 Sep 2021 1 Oct 2021 1 2
-2.72% Jan 2014 Jan 2014 1 Feb 2014 1 2
-2.58% Mar 2005 Apr 2005 2 Jul 2005 3 5
-2.38% May 2006 May 2006 1 Aug 2006 3 4
-2.27% Feb 1999 Feb 1999 1 Mar 1999 1 2
-2.24% May 1999 May 1999 1 Jun 1999 1 2
-2.24% Jun 2007 Jul 2007 2 Sep 2007 2 4
-2.09% Jul 2014 Sep 2014 3 Feb 2015 5 8

Rolling Returns ( more details)

Andrew Tobias Portfolio: annualized rolling and average returns

Swipe left to see all data
Return (*) Negative
Periods
Rolling Period Average Best Worst
1 Year
 +8.24% +38.50%
Feb 1986 - Jan 1987 		-30.85%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009 		19.48%
2 Years
 +7.47% +24.93%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2011 		-16.21%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009 		12.47%
3 Years
 +7.25% +19.98%
Feb 1986 - Jan 1989 		-9.38%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2003 		11.08%
5 Years
 +7.05% +15.19%
Jan 1995 - Dec 1999 		-1.21%
Mar 2004 - Feb 2009 		1.07%
7 Years
 +6.95% +13.43%
Jan 1993 - Dec 1999 		+1.55%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2009 		0.00%
10 Years
 +6.87% +11.83%
Feb 1986 - Jan 1996 		+1.44%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009 		0.00%
15 Years
 +6.53% +11.36%
Feb 1986 - Jan 2001 		+4.15%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2015 		0.00%
20 Years
 +6.53% +9.59%
Feb 1986 - Jan 2006 		+3.88%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020 		0.00%

* Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods

If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Andrew Tobias Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.

Seasonality

Andrew Tobias Portfolio Seasonality: in which months is it better to invest?

In the table below, the average monthly return is represented.

Below each return, it's also mentioned the probability of obtaining a positive monthly result (Win %).

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.

Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Win %		 0.52
58% 		0.63
61% 		0.86
58% 		1.75
81% 		0.54
67% 		0.24
56% 		0.99
69% 		0.00
64% 		-0.12
58% 		0.47
61% 		0.88
69% 		1.56
81%
Best
Year		 8.4
1987 		6.3
1986 		7.0
1986 		7.1
2009 		7.0
1990 		4.6
2019 		7.0
1989 		5.4
1986 		6.3
2010 		6.7
2011 		8.5
2020 		5.6
1991
Worst
Year		 -7.4
2009 		-6.8
2009 		-8.5
2020 		-3.5
2000 		-6.2
2010 		-5.5
2008 		-5.2
2002 		-9.2
1998 		-6.2
2008 		-11.9
1987 		-4.1
1993 		-4.6
2018
Statistics calculated for the period Jan 1986 - Dec 2021

For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.

Monthly/Yearly Returns

Andrew Tobias Portfolio monthly and yearly returns: how is the distribution of the returns recorded so far?

MONTHLY RETURNS HISTOGRAM
282 Positive Months (65%) - 150 Negative Months (35%)
Jan 1986 - Dec 2021
Swipe left to see all data
Yearly Return(%)
Monthly Return(%)
Year Total Infl.Adj Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2021
 +12.14 +4.68 -0.4 1.8 2.1 2.7 1.3 0.4 0.9 1.5 -2.7 3.3 -2.1 2.8
2020
 +10.55 +9.13 -0.8 -4.9 -8.5 5.9 3.3 1.8 2.6 3.9 -1.9 -1.8 8.5 3.3
2019
 +18.69 +16.07 5.1 2.1 1.0 2.4 -3.8 4.6 -0.2 -1.2 1.6 2.0 1.7 2.1
2018
 -5.85 -7.63 3.3 -2.9 -0.9 0.6 0.4 -0.3 2.0 0.6 0.3 -5.2 1.0 -4.6
2017
 +15.52 +13.15 1.8 1.6 1.1 1.3 1.6 0.4 1.6 0.1 1.6 1.3 1.2 0.9
2016
 +5.01 +2.90 -3.5 -1.1 4.5 1.0 0.5 -0.5 2.6 0.2 0.6 -1.5 0.8 1.6
2015
 -0.07 -0.70 -0.5 3.9 -0.8 1.5 0.5 -1.6 1.3 -4.6 -2.3 4.7 -0.1 -1.5
2014
 +2.26 +1.60 -2.7 3.6 0.0 0.6 1.3 1.2 -1.6 1.5 -2.0 1.0 0.9 -1.4
2013
 +18.36 +16.59 3.1 0.0 1.8 2.2 -0.2 -1.4 3.8 -1.8 4.1 2.7 1.2 1.7
2012
 +11.85 +9.92 3.5 3.0 1.2 -0.9 -5.9 3.7 0.4 2.0 1.8 -0.3 1.2 2.0
2011
 -3.28 -6.15 1.4 2.4 -0.7 3.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.5 -4.9 -6.0 6.7 -0.8 -0.3
2010
 +9.28 +7.74 -2.6 1.3 4.1 -0.1 -6.2 -2.5 5.9 -2.7 6.3 2.7 -1.5 5.0
2009
 +18.73 +15.48 -7.4 -6.8 5.3 7.1 6.1 -0.4 6.1 3.0 2.9 -1.8 3.6 1.0
2008
 -23.80 -23.78 -4.1 -0.8 -0.1 3.0 0.9 -5.5 -1.1 -0.7 -6.2 -11.0 -3.4 2.9
2007
 +7.55 +3.31 1.1 -0.3 1.5 2.7 2.0 -0.6 -1.7 0.6 3.3 2.2 -2.2 -1.2
2006
 +15.13 +12.30 3.1 -0.2 2.1 2.1 -2.4 0.1 0.5 1.9 1.0 2.6 2.0 1.6
2005
 +7.05 +3.59 -1.5 1.9 -1.5 -1.1 1.1 0.8 2.3 1.1 1.4 -1.9 2.4 1.9
2004
 +10.80 +7.22 1.3 1.4 -0.2 -2.2 0.9 1.8 -2.6 0.7 1.2 1.9 3.5 2.9
2003
 +24.42 +21.94 -2.4 -1.1 -0.4 6.2 4.2 1.3 1.2 1.9 1.0 4.3 1.4 4.9
2002
 -9.29 -11.49 -2.1 0.0 2.7 -0.5 -0.1 -3.0 -5.2 0.2 -5.9 3.3 3.2 -2.0
2001
 -8.37 -9.81 1.7 -5.4 -4.0 5.0 -0.8 -1.7 -0.6 -2.4 -5.3 2.0 2.9 0.7
2000
 -5.34 -8.49 -3.6 2.0 3.4 -3.5 -1.8 3.2 -1.8 3.0 -2.8 -1.2 -4.0 2.1
1999
 +21.21 +18.05 1.7 -2.3 3.1 3.5 -2.2 3.5 0.1 0.3 0.0 3.5 3.1 5.5
1998
 +15.71 +13.88 1.9 4.5 2.9 0.8 -0.7 1.3 -0.6 -9.2 2.0 5.6 3.6 3.3
1997
 +12.04 +10.17 0.7 0.5 -1.8 2.1 5.2 3.3 3.4 -3.4 3.7 -3.2 0.6 0.8
1996
 +10.01 +6.42 1.3 0.4 1.0 2.1 0.5 0.1 -2.9 1.1 2.9 0.5 3.7 -1.1
1995
 +17.29 +14.40 -0.1 0.3 3.1 2.3 1.3 0.7 3.3 -0.4 2.0 -0.9 2.7 1.9
1994
 +3.04 +0.43 4.6 -0.9 -2.8 1.3 0.3 -0.1 1.4 2.1 -1.7 1.6 -3.3 0.8
1993
 +15.62 +12.46 0.8 1.7 4.3 2.9 2.1 -0.7 1.5 3.4 -1.1 1.1 -4.1 3.0
1992
 +0.36 -2.54 -1.0 -0.7 -3.2 0.6 2.7 -1.7 0.8 1.7 -0.1 -1.6 1.7 1.2
1991
 +17.79 +14.38 2.5 6.2 -0.5 1.0 1.5 -3.7 3.3 0.4 1.9 1.6 -2.8 5.6
1990
 -6.98 -12.46 -3.6 -1.5 -2.3 -1.7 7.0 0.1 0.8 -6.1 -5.5 4.5 0.1 1.9
1989
 +17.49 +12.28 3.2 -0.4 0.1 2.7 0.3 -0.1 7.0 -0.7 1.8 -1.6 2.3 2.0
1988
 +16.22 +11.31 3.2 4.2 1.6 1.0 -1.0 0.9 0.4 -3.0 2.6 3.0 1.7 0.5
1987
 +12.63 +7.95 8.4 2.6 4.7 3.0 0.4 0.5 1.5 4.4 -1.3 -11.9 -1.9 3.0
1986
 +29.43 +27.91 1.3 6.3 7.0 2.6 0.2 3.7 0.7 5.4 -3.3 -1.3 2.8 1.2

* Note:
Portofolio Returns, up to December 2002, are simulated. They have been calculated using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.

In particular, it has been used:

  • VTI - Vanguard Total Stock Market: simulated historical serie, up to December 2001
  • EFA - iShares MSCI EAFE: simulated historical serie, up to December 2001
  • SHY - iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond: simulated historical serie, up to December 2002
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