Last Update: 31 August 2021

Implementing the Andrew Tobias Portfolio, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to obtain a positive return?

Considering all 10 years rolling periods, you would have obtained a positive returns 100.00% of times

Considering all 4 years rolling periods, you would have obtained a positive returns 93.70% of times

All the returns are calculated over the available historical serie, starting from January 1986 until August 2021.

In order to have complete information about the portfolio, please refer to the Andrew Tobias Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns page.

Rolling Returns

Andrew Tobias Portfolio: annualized rolling and average returns

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Return (*) Negative
Periods
Rolling Period Average Best Worst
1 Year
+8.16% +38.50%
Feb 1986 - Jan 1987
-30.85%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009
19.66%
2 Years
+7.43% +24.93%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2011
-16.21%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009
12.59%
3 Years
+7.21% +19.98%
Feb 1986 - Jan 1989
-9.37%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2003
11.20%
4 Years
+7.09% +18.78%
Jan 1986 - Dec 1989
-3.45%
Mar 2005 - Feb 2009
6.30%
5 Years
+7.02% +15.19%
Jan 1995 - Dec 1999
-1.21%
Mar 2004 - Feb 2009
1.08%
6 Years
+6.94% +13.88%
Jan 1986 - Dec 1991
+2.17%
Jun 2006 - May 2012
0.00%
7 Years
+6.95% +13.43%
Jan 1993 - Dec 1999
+1.55%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2009
0.00%
8 Years
+6.95% +12.75%
Feb 1986 - Jan 1994
+0.48%
Mar 2001 - Feb 2009
0.00%
9 Years
+6.91% +12.36%
Jan 1991 - Dec 1999
-0.43%
Mar 2000 - Feb 2009
0.62%
10 Years
+6.85% +11.83%
Jan 1986 - Dec 1995
+1.44%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009
0.00%
11 Years
+6.81% +11.66%
Jan 1986 - Dec 1996
+2.02%
Mar 1998 - Feb 2009
0.00%
12 Years
+6.73% +11.75%
Feb 1986 - Jan 1998
+2.69%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2011
0.00%
13 Years
+6.61% +12.03%
Feb 1986 - Jan 1999
+3.37%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2012
0.00%
14 Years
+6.57% +12.63%
Jan 1986 - Dec 1999
+4.15%
Jun 1998 - May 2012
0.00%
15 Years
+6.54% +11.36%
Feb 1986 - Jan 2001
+4.15%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2015
0.00%
16 Years
+6.53% +9.99%
Jan 1986 - Dec 2001
+3.76%
Mar 2000 - Feb 2016
0.00%
17 Years
+6.56% +9.15%
Oct 1990 - Sep 2007
+4.02%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2016
0.00%
18 Years
+6.59% +9.56%
Jan 1986 - Dec 2003
+4.50%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2018
0.00%
19 Years
+6.54% +9.63%
Jan 1986 - Dec 2004
+4.05%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2018
0.00%
20 Years
+6.53% +9.59%
Feb 1986 - Jan 2006
+3.88%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020
0.00%

* Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods

Annualized Rolling Returns - 1 Year (12 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+8.16% +38.50%
Feb 1986 - Jan 1987
-30.85%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009
19.66%
82 out of 417

Annualized Rolling Returns - 2 Years (24 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+7.43% +24.93%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2011
-16.21%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009
12.59%
51 out of 405

Annualized Rolling Returns - 3 Years (36 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+7.21% +19.98%
Feb 1986 - Jan 1989
-9.37%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2003
11.20%
44 out of 393

Annualized Rolling Returns - 4 Years (48 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+7.09% +18.78%
Jan 1986 - Dec 1989
-3.45%
Mar 2005 - Feb 2009
6.30%
24 out of 381

Annualized Rolling Returns - 5 Years (60 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+7.02% +15.19%
Jan 1995 - Dec 1999
-1.21%
Mar 2004 - Feb 2009
1.08%
4 out of 369

Annualized Rolling Returns - 6 Years (72 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+6.94% +13.88%
Jan 1986 - Dec 1991
+2.17%
Jun 2006 - May 2012
0.00%
0 out of 357

Annualized Rolling Returns - 7 Years (84 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+6.95% +13.43%
Jan 1993 - Dec 1999
+1.55%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2009
0.00%
0 out of 345

Annualized Rolling Returns - 8 Years (96 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+6.95% +12.75%
Feb 1986 - Jan 1994
+0.48%
Mar 2001 - Feb 2009
0.00%
0 out of 333

Annualized Rolling Returns - 9 Years (108 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+6.91% +12.36%
Jan 1991 - Dec 1999
-0.43%
Mar 2000 - Feb 2009
0.62%
2 out of 321

Annualized Rolling Returns - 10 Years (120 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+6.85% +11.83%
Jan 1986 - Dec 1995
+1.44%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009
0.00%
0 out of 309

Annualized Rolling Returns - 11 Years (132 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+6.81% +11.66%
Jan 1986 - Dec 1996
+2.02%
Mar 1998 - Feb 2009
0.00%
0 out of 297

Annualized Rolling Returns - 12 Years (144 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+6.73% +11.75%
Feb 1986 - Jan 1998
+2.69%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2011
0.00%
0 out of 285

Annualized Rolling Returns - 13 Years (156 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+6.61% +12.03%
Feb 1986 - Jan 1999
+3.37%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2012
0.00%
0 out of 273

Annualized Rolling Returns - 14 Years (168 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+6.57% +12.63%
Jan 1986 - Dec 1999
+4.15%
Jun 1998 - May 2012
0.00%
0 out of 261

Annualized Rolling Returns - 15 Years (180 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+6.54% +11.36%
Feb 1986 - Jan 2001
+4.15%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2015
0.00%
0 out of 249

Annualized Rolling Returns - 16 Years (192 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+6.53% +9.99%
Jan 1986 - Dec 2001
+3.76%
Mar 2000 - Feb 2016
0.00%
0 out of 237

Annualized Rolling Returns - 17 Years (204 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+6.56% +9.15%
Oct 1990 - Sep 2007
+4.02%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2016
0.00%
0 out of 225

Annualized Rolling Returns - 18 Years (216 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+6.59% +9.56%
Jan 1986 - Dec 2003
+4.50%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2018
0.00%
0 out of 213

Annualized Rolling Returns - 19 Years (228 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+6.54% +9.63%
Jan 1986 - Dec 2004
+4.05%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2018
0.00%
0 out of 201

Annualized Rolling Returns - 20 Years (240 months)

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Average
Return
Best
Return
Worst
Return
Negative
Periods
+6.53% +9.59%
Feb 1986 - Jan 2006
+3.88%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020
0.00%
0 out of 189

In order to have complete information about the portfolio, please refer to the Andrew Tobias Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns page.

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