Consolidated Returns as of 31 March 2024
Holding the Alpha Architect Robust Portfolio, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to obtain a positive return?
Considering all the available data source (~42 years), the longest period with a negative return lasted 62 months (from January 2004 to February 2009).
This means that every rolling period of 63 months or above has always granted a positive return.
To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the Alpha Architect Robust Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns page.
Previous vs subsequent Returns
Considering all 10-year rolling periods, is there a relationship between past and future returns, at a given date?
In the following chart, we show how past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis) are related.
Neighboring data is aggregated and occurrences are indicated. It is possible to zoom by clicking or drawing the desired area
The annualized return of the last 10 years has been 6.95% (updated at Mar 31, 2024).
Rolling Returns
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
Annualized Rolling Returns - 1 Year (12 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +12.63% |
+48.51%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1983 |
-40.18%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009 |
16.73%
83 out of 496 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +9.73% |
+44.92%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1983 |
-40.19%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009 |
23.19%
115 out of 496 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 2 Years (24 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +12.15% |
+32.49%
Sep 1985 - Aug 1987 |
-21.39%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009 |
10.12%
49 out of 484 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +8.75% |
+28.81%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2011 |
-22.97%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009 |
14.26%
69 out of 484 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 3 Years (36 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +11.09% |
+31.02%
Aug 1984 - Jul 1987 |
-11.22%
Mar 2006 - Feb 2009 |
5.93%
28 out of 472 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +8.09% |
+27.19%
Aug 1984 - Jul 1987 |
-13.11%
Mar 2006 - Feb 2009 |
11.65%
55 out of 472 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 4 Years (48 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +10.77% |
+25.96%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1986 |
-5.31%
Mar 2005 - Feb 2009 |
4.13%
19 out of 460 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +7.68% |
+22.23%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1986 |
-7.65%
Mar 2005 - Feb 2009 |
9.78%
45 out of 460 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 5 Years (60 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +10.52% |
+26.57%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1987 |
-1.74%
Mar 2004 - Feb 2009 |
0.67%
3 out of 448 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +7.79% |
+22.72%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1987 |
-4.27%
Mar 2004 - Feb 2009 |
5.36%
24 out of 448 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 6 Years (72 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +10.47% |
+20.93%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1988 |
+2.19%
Oct 2005 - Sep 2011 |
0.00%
0 out of 436 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +7.55% |
+17.04%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1988 |
-0.02%
Oct 2005 - Sep 2011 |
0.23%
1 out of 436 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 7 Years (84 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +10.46% |
+21.62%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1989 |
+3.26%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2009 |
0.00%
0 out of 424 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +7.75% |
+17.45%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1989 |
+0.66%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2009 |
0.00%
0 out of 424 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 8 Years (96 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +10.83% |
+19.37%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1990 |
+2.20%
Mar 2001 - Feb 2009 |
0.00%
0 out of 412 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +8.05% |
+15.10%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1990 |
-0.19%
Mar 2001 - Feb 2009 |
0.24%
1 out of 412 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 9 Years (108 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +10.80% |
+18.62%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1991 |
+3.00%
Mar 2000 - Feb 2009 |
0.00%
0 out of 400 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +7.83% |
+14.29%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1991 |
+0.47%
Mar 2000 - Feb 2009 |
0.00%
0 out of 400 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 10 Years (120 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +10.56% |
+17.98%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1992 |
+4.41%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009 |
0.00%
0 out of 388 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +7.95% |
+13.75%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1992 |
+1.77%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009 |
0.00%
0 out of 388 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 11 Years (132 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +10.27% |
+17.52%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1993 |
+4.55%
Jan 2008 - Dec 2018 |
0.00%
0 out of 376 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +7.73% |
+13.39%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1993 |
+2.00%
Mar 1998 - Feb 2009 |
0.00%
0 out of 376 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 12 Years (144 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +10.51% |
+16.55%
Mar 1982 - Feb 1994 |
+4.20%
Apr 2008 - Mar 2020 |
0.00%
0 out of 364 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +7.87% |
+12.38%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1994 |
+2.56%
Apr 2008 - Mar 2020 |
0.00%
0 out of 364 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 13 Years (156 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +9.10% |
+16.58%
Aug 1984 - Jul 1997 |
+4.06%
Apr 2007 - Mar 2020 |
0.00%
0 out of 352 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +6.74% |
+12.77%
Aug 1984 - Jul 1997 |
+2.24%
Apr 2007 - Mar 2020 |
0.00%
0 out of 352 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 14 Years (168 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +9.11% |
+16.36%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1996 |
+4.66%
Apr 2006 - Mar 2020 |
0.00%
0 out of 340 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +6.65% |
+12.44%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1996 |
+2.76%
Apr 2006 - Mar 2020 |
0.00%
0 out of 340 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 15 Years (180 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +9.47% |
+17.05%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1997 |
+4.84%
Oct 2007 - Sep 2022 |
0.00%
0 out of 328 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +6.97% |
+13.23%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1997 |
+2.41%
Oct 2007 - Sep 2022 |
0.00%
0 out of 328 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 16 Years (192 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +9.32% |
+16.69%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1998 |
+4.72%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 316 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +6.79% |
+12.98%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1998 |
+2.23%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 316 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 17 Years (204 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +9.49% |
+16.60%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1999 |
+5.36%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 304 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +6.91% |
+12.97%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1999 |
+2.78%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 304 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 18 Years (216 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +9.78% |
+16.38%
Jul 1982 - Jun 2000 |
+5.95%
Nov 2005 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 292 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +7.17% |
+12.72%
Jul 1982 - Jun 2000 |
+3.42%
Nov 2005 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 292 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 19 Years (228 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +9.75% |
+15.64%
Feb 1982 - Jan 2001 |
+6.41%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 280 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +7.08% |
+11.92%
Feb 1982 - Jan 2001 |
+3.77%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 280 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 20 Years (240 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +9.79% |
+14.68%
Apr 1982 - Mar 2002 |
+6.34%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020 |
0.00%
0 out of 268 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +7.13% |
+11.10%
Apr 1982 - Mar 2002 |
+4.17%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020 |
0.00%
0 out of 268 |
To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the Alpha Architect Robust Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns page.