Data Source: from January 1972 to December 2021
Last Update: 31 December 2021
The 10-year Treasury Portfolio is exposed for 0% on the Stock Market.
It's a Low Risk portfolio and it can be replicated with 1 ETF.
In the last 10 years, the portfolio obtained a 2.62% compound annual return, with a 5.28% standard deviation.
In the last 25 years, a 5.57% compound annual return, with a 6.43% standard deviation.
Asset Allocation and ETFs
The 10-year Treasury Portfolio has the following asset allocation:
The 10-year Treasury Portfolio can be replicated with the following ETFs:
| Weight | Ticker | ETF Name | Investment Themes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100.00 % | IEF | iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond | Bond, U.S., Intermediate-Term |
Portfolio and ETF Returns
The 10-year Treasury Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.
| 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y(*) | 5Y(*) | 10Y(*) | 20Y(*) | 25Y(*) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year Treasury Portfolio | -0.52 | +0.12 | +0.08 | -3.33 | +4.73 | +3.54 | +2.62 | +5.00 | +5.57 |
| --- Inflation Adjusted return | -0.99 | -2.05 | -3.21 | -9.76 | +1.16 | +0.60 | +0.49 | +2.63 | +3.21 |
| Components | |||||||||
|
IEF iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond |
-0.52 | +0.12 | +0.08 | -3.33 | +4.73 | +3.54 | +2.62 | +5.00 | +5.57 |
- the reinvestment of dividends
Inflation is updated to Dec 2021. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 7.12% , 3Y: 3.53% , 5Y: 2.92% , 10Y: 2.12% , 20Y: 2.31% , 25Y: 2.29%
In 2021, the portfolio granted a 0.80% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the 10-year Treasury Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.
Historical Returns
Historical returns and stats of 10-year Treasury Portfolio. Total Returns and Inflation Adjusted Returns are both mentioned.
| Period | Return Dec 2021 update |
Return Inflation Adjusted |
Standard Deviation(*) |
Max Drawdown |
Months Pos - Neg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1M
Dec 2021
|
-0.52%
|
-0.99%
|
-0.52%
Dec 2021 - Dec 2021
|
0 - 1
|
|
|
3M
|
+0.12%
|
-2.05%
|
-0.52%
Dec 2021 - Dec 2021
|
1 - 2
|
|
|
6M
|
+0.08%
|
-3.21%
|
-2.42%
Aug 2021 - Oct 2021
|
2 - 4
|
|
|
YTD
|
-3.33%
|
-9.76%
|
4.71%
|
-5.73%
Jan 2021 - Mar 2021
|
5 - 7
42% pos
|
|
1Y
|
-3.33%
|
-9.76%
|
4.71%
|
-5.73%
Jan 2021 - Mar 2021
|
5 - 7
42% pos
|
|
3Y
|
+4.73%
annualized
|
+1.16%
annualized
|
5.57%
|
-7.54%
Aug 2020 - Mar 2021
|
21 - 15
58% pos
|
|
5Y
|
+3.54%
annualized
|
+0.60%
annualized
|
4.95%
|
-7.54%
Aug 2020 - Mar 2021
|
35 - 25
58% pos
|
|
10Y
|
+2.62%
annualized
|
+0.49%
annualized
|
5.28%
|
-7.60%
May 2013 - Dec 2013
|
63 - 57
53% pos
|
|
20Y
|
+5.00%
annualized
|
+2.63%
annualized
|
6.39%
|
-7.60%
May 2013 - Dec 2013
|
136 - 104
57% pos
|
|
25Y
|
+5.57%
annualized
|
+3.21%
annualized
|
6.43%
|
-9.34%
Oct 1998 - Jan 2000
|
173 - 127
58% pos
|
|
MAX
01 Jan 1972
|
+7.14%
annualized
|
+3.10%
annualized
|
7.69%
|
-15.76%
Jul 1979 - Feb 1980
|
358 - 242
60% pos
|
Portfolio efficiency
Is the 10-year Treasury Portfolio actually efficient, compared to other Lazy Portfolios?
Best Classic Portfolios, with Low Risk, ordered by 25 Years annualized return.
25 Years Stats |
% Allocation |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | Return▾ | Drawdown | Stocks | Bonds | Comm. | ||
| High Yield Bonds Income |
+6.94% | -23.98% | 0 | 100 | 0 | Compare | |
| All Country World 20/80 |
+6.13% | -14.04% | 20 | 80 | 0 | Compare | |
| Stocks/Bonds 20/80 |
+6.06% | -8.42% | 20 | 80 | 0 | Compare | |
| Vanguard LifeStrategy Income Fund Vanguard |
+5.87% | -10.54% | 20 | 80 | 0 | Compare | |
| US Inflation Protection |
+5.79% | -11.79% | 0 | 100 | 0 | Compare | |
Our overall ratings, assigned to the 10-year Treasury Portfolio. The portfolio is classified as Low Risk.
Less than 25%
25% - 49.99%
50% - 74.99%
At least 75%
| Low Risk Portfolios |
All Portfolios |
||
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Years Ann. Return (Inflation Adjusted) |
+5.57%
(+3.21%) |
Good : 4 / 5
|
Bad : 2 / 5
|
| Standard Deviation over 25 Years |
6.43% |
Poor : 1 / 5
|
Excellent : 4.2 / 5
|
| Maximum Drawdown over 25 Years |
-9.34% |
Good : 3.3 / 5
|
Excellent : 4.7 / 5
|
| Easy to manage | 1 ETF |
Excellent : 5 / 5
|
Excellent : 5 / 5
|
| Rating assigned considering all the Low Risk Portfolios | Rating assigned considering all the Portfolios in the database |
Capital Growth
An investment of 1000$, since January 1997, now would be worth 3879.13$, with a total return of 287.91% (5.57% annualized).
The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 2202.67$, with a net total return of 120.27% (3.21% annualized).
Drawdowns
Worst drawdowns since January 1997 - Chart and Data
Drawdown period |
Recovery period |
Total |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drawdown | Start | Bottom | #Months | End | #Months | #Months |
| -9.34% | Oct 1998 | Jan 2000 | 16 | Aug 2000 | 7 | 23 |
| -7.60% | May 2013 | Dec 2013 | 8 | Nov 2014 | 11 | 19 |
| -7.54% | Aug 2020 | Mar 2021 | 8 | in progress | 9 | 17 |
| -7.18% | Aug 2016 | Apr 2018 | 21 | May 2019 | 13 | 34 |
| -6.65% | Jan 2009 | Jun 2009 | 6 | Jun 2010 | 12 | 18 |
| -6.60% | Nov 2001 | Mar 2002 | 5 | Jul 2002 | 4 | 9 |
| -5.68% | Jun 2003 | Jul 2003 | 2 | Dec 2003 | 5 | 7 |
| -4.85% | Apr 2004 | May 2004 | 2 | Oct 2004 | 5 | 7 |
| -4.67% | Sep 2010 | Mar 2011 | 7 | Jul 2011 | 4 | 11 |
| -4.25% | Feb 2015 | Jun 2015 | 5 | Jan 2016 | 7 | 12 |
| -4.15% | Apr 2008 | May 2008 | 2 | Nov 2008 | 6 | 8 |
| -4.13% | Oct 2002 | Nov 2002 | 2 | Feb 2003 | 3 | 5 |
| -4.08% | Jul 2005 | May 2006 | 11 | Sep 2006 | 4 | 15 |
| -2.97% | Apr 2001 | May 2001 | 2 | Jul 2001 | 2 | 4 |
| -2.67% | Feb 2012 | Mar 2012 | 2 | May 2012 | 2 | 4 |
| -2.59% | Sep 2019 | Dec 2019 | 4 | Jan 2020 | 1 | 5 |
| -2.22% | Dec 2012 | Jan 2013 | 2 | Apr 2013 | 3 | 5 |
| -2.02% | Mar 1997 | Mar 1997 | 1 | May 1997 | 2 | 3 |
| -1.98% | Nov 2004 | Nov 2004 | 1 | Jan 2005 | 2 | 3 |
| -1.85% | May 2007 | Jun 2007 | 2 | Jul 2007 | 1 | 3 |
Rolling Returns ( more details)
10-year Treasury Portfolio: annualized rolling and average returns
| Return (*) | Negative Periods |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rolling Period | Average | Best | Worst | |
| 1 Year |
+7.64% |
+44.35% Apr 1985 - Mar 1986 |
-11.12% Mar 1979 - Feb 1980 |
18.00% |
| 2 Years |
+7.62% |
+34.91% Jul 1984 - Jun 1986 |
-5.88% Oct 1979 - Sep 1981 |
6.41% |
| 3 Years |
+7.61% |
+23.66% Sep 1983 - Aug 1986 |
-2.91% Oct 1978 - Sep 1981 |
3.36% |
| 5 Years |
+7.68% |
+23.75% Sep 1981 - Aug 1986 |
-0.08% Oct 1976 - Sep 1981 |
0.18% |
| 7 Years |
+7.80% |
+17.44% Mar 1980 - Feb 1987 |
+1.36% Oct 2011 - Sep 2018 |
0.00% |
| 10 Years |
+8.15% |
+15.70% Oct 1981 - Sep 1991 |
+2.62% Jan 2012 - Dec 2021 |
0.00% |
| 15 Years |
+8.34% |
+13.03% Oct 1981 - Sep 1996 |
+4.14% Oct 2003 - Sep 2018 |
0.00% |
| 20 Years |
+8.37% |
+12.08% Oct 1981 - Sep 2001 |
+4.69% Nov 2001 - Oct 2021 |
0.00% |
* Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods
If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the 10-year Treasury Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.
Seasonality
10-year Treasury Portfolio Seasonality: in which months is it better to invest?
In the table below, the average monthly return is represented.
Below each return, it's also mentioned the probability of obtaining a positive monthly result (Win %).
Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.
| Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return (%) | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
| Average Win % |
0.39 56% |
0.20 58% |
0.12 50% |
0.26 58% |
0.78 58% |
0.82 66% |
0.48 62% |
0.99 66% |
0.88 60% |
0.70 54% |
0.91 66% |
0.67 62% |
| Best Year |
4.6 1988 |
7.2 1986 |
5.8 1986 |
12.4 1980 |
7.9 1985 |
5.6 1986 |
6.3 1984 |
6.0 1982 |
7.3 1982 |
7.6 1981 |
9.4 1981 |
5.4 1991 |
| Worst Year |
-3.9 1980 |
-7.9 1980 |
-3.9 1994 |
-4.3 2004 |
-4.7 1984 |
-2.7 1982 |
-5.0 2003 |
-3.7 1980 |
-3.2 1987 |
-7.0 1979 |
-4.2 2016 |
-4.4 2009 |
For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
Monthly/Yearly Returns
10-year Treasury Portfolio monthly and yearly returns: how is the distribution of the returns recorded so far?
Yearly Return(%) |
Monthly Return(%) |
|||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Total | Infl.Adj | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
| 2021 |
-3.33 | -9.76 | -1.1 | -2.4 | -2.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -0.4 | -1.6 | -0.4 | 1.1 | -0.5 |
| 2020 |
+10.01 | +8.59 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.9 | -1.0 | 0.3 | -1.4 | 0.3 | -0.2 |
| 2019 |
+8.03 | +5.64 | 0.7 | -0.5 | 2.7 | -0.5 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 3.9 | -1.2 | 0.2 | -0.7 | -0.9 |
| 2018 |
+0.99 | -0.91 | -2.2 | -0.9 | 1.2 | -1.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | -0.5 | 1.0 | -1.2 | -0.3 | 1.3 | 2.8 |
| 2017 |
+2.55 | +0.44 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 0.8 | -0.5 | 0.4 | 1.5 | -1.4 | -0.2 | -0.3 | 0.2 |
| 2016 |
+1.00 | -1.03 | 3.3 | 1.5 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.1 | 3.1 | 0.2 | -1.0 | 0.2 | -1.5 | -4.2 | -0.1 |
| 2015 |
+1.51 | +0.86 | 4.3 | -2.5 | 0.9 | -0.6 | -0.4 | -1.6 | 1.5 | 0.1 | 1.6 | -0.6 | -0.4 | -0.5 |
| 2014 |
+9.07 | +8.36 | 3.1 | 0.4 | -0.6 | 0.8 | 1.8 | -0.2 | -0.2 | 1.9 | -1.0 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.1 |
| 2013 |
-6.09 | -7.49 | -1.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 1.5 | -3.1 | -2.5 | -0.4 | -1.4 | 1.8 | 0.8 | -0.9 | -2.1 |
| 2012 |
+3.66 | +1.87 | 0.9 | -1.1 | -1.6 | 2.5 | 2.9 | -0.4 | 1.4 | -0.1 | -0.3 | -0.4 | 1.0 | -0.9 |
| 2011 |
+15.64 | +12.20 | 0.0 | -0.2 | -0.2 | 1.8 | 2.5 | -0.5 | 3.2 | 4.7 | 2.2 | -1.3 | 0.6 | 2.0 |
| 2010 |
+9.37 | +7.82 | 2.4 | 0.3 | -1.1 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 3.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.9 | -3.4 |
| 2009 |
-6.59 | -9.15 | -3.9 | -0.7 | 3.3 | -2.7 | -2.1 | -0.6 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.1 | -0.1 | 2.0 | -4.4 |
| 2008 |
+17.91 | +17.93 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | -2.4 | -1.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 1.5 | -0.1 | -0.9 | 7.8 | 5.2 |
| 2007 |
+10.37 | +6.02 | -0.4 | 2.1 | -0.1 | 0.6 | -1.4 | -0.5 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 4.0 | 0.0 |
| 2006 |
+2.52 | -0.01 | -0.7 | -0.1 | -1.4 | -0.6 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 1.3 | -1.3 |
| 2005 |
+2.64 | -0.67 | 0.9 | -1.4 | -0.4 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | -2.2 | 2.0 | -1.8 | -1.2 | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| 2004 |
+4.12 | +0.76 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | -4.3 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 2.8 | 0.3 | 1.0 | -2.0 | 1.2 |
| 2003 |
+5.29 | +3.19 | -0.8 | 2.2 | -0.4 | 0.1 | 3.8 | -0.7 | -5.0 | 0.7 | 5.0 | -1.5 | 0.0 | 2.0 |
| 2002 |
+15.45 | +12.65 | 0.4 | 1.9 | -3.7 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 4.6 | -2.2 | -2.0 | 3.6 |
| 2001 |
+5.40 | +3.74 | -0.1 | 2.5 | 0.3 | -2.8 | -0.2 | 0.5 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.8 | -3.4 | -1.9 |
| 2000 |
+17.28 | +13.38 | -1.1 | 2.5 | 3.4 | -1.0 | 0.1 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 2.8 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 2.7 | 3.2 |
| 1999 |
-7.83 | -10.23 | 0.3 | -4.5 | 0.7 | -0.4 | -1.7 | -0.8 | -0.3 | 0.0 | 1.1 | -0.4 | -0.7 | -1.5 |
| 1998 |
+14.64 | +12.83 | 2.2 | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 5.3 | -1.2 | -0.4 | 1.1 |
| 1997 |
+11.97 | +10.10 | -0.2 | 0.3 | -2.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 4.2 | -1.8 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 0.3 | 1.3 |
| 1996 |
-0.00 | -3.27 | 0.3 | -3.5 | -1.0 | -1.8 | -0.8 | 1.4 | 0.1 | -0.6 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.8 | -2.2 |
| 1995 |
+25.55 | +22.45 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 6.2 | 1.2 | -1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 1.8 |
| 1994 |
-7.19 | -9.54 | 1.5 | -2.8 | -3.9 | -1.5 | -0.2 | -0.6 | 2.2 | 0.1 | -2.4 | -0.7 | 0.0 | 1.1 |
| 1993 |
+12.97 | +9.89 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | -0.3 | 3.2 | 0.3 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | -2.5 | 0.5 |
| 1992 |
+7.23 | +4.14 | -3.6 | 0.9 | -1.3 | 0.1 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 2.4 | -2.6 | -0.5 | 2.4 |
| 1991 |
+18.91 | +15.47 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | -0.5 | 1.0 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 5.4 |
| 1990 |
+7.70 | +1.36 | -2.7 | 0.2 | -0.2 | -1.8 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 1.2 | -2.6 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 1.9 |
| 1989 |
+17.84 | +12.62 | 1.6 | -1.2 | 0.9 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.6 | -2.3 | 0.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.0 |
| 1988 |
+6.90 | +2.38 | 4.6 | 1.4 | -2.0 | -1.2 | -1.4 | 3.3 | -1.2 | -0.1 | 3.3 | 2.2 | -1.9 | 0.2 |
| 1987 |
-2.64 | -6.69 | 1.0 | 0.5 | -1.6 | -4.1 | -1.2 | 1.4 | -1.1 | -1.5 | -3.2 | 5.7 | 0.0 | 1.8 |
| 1986 |
+21.35 | +19.93 | 0.2 | 7.2 | 5.8 | 0.7 | -3.9 | 5.6 | 0.7 | 3.4 | -2.9 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 0.0 |
| 1985 |
+29.85 | +25.11 | 3.2 | -3.3 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 7.9 | 1.0 | -1.1 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 4.6 |
| 1984 |
+14.87 | +10.41 | 1.9 | -1.1 | -1.7 | -0.6 | -4.7 | 1.5 | 6.3 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| 1983 |
+2.30 | -1.44 | -1.8 | 4.2 | -1.3 | 3.0 | -2.4 | 0.0 | -3.7 | -0.3 | 4.2 | -0.8 | 1.6 | -0.1 |
| 1982 |
+39.57 | +34.43 | 0.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 2.8 | 2.0 | -2.7 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 7.3 | 7.1 | 0.4 | 3.5 |
| 1981 |
+5.28 | -3.33 | -0.4 | -3.0 | 2.8 | -4.1 | 4.5 | -0.8 | -3.0 | -2.5 | -0.8 | 7.6 | 9.4 | -3.4 |
| 1980 |
-1.29 | -12.15 | -3.9 | -7.9 | 1.5 | 12.4 | 4.0 | 1.8 | -3.2 | -3.7 | -0.8 | -2.4 | -0.4 | 2.7 |
| 1979 |
+1.83 | -10.09 | 2.1 | -0.7 | 1.2 | -0.8 | 2.7 | 2.4 | -0.6 | -0.7 | -0.5 | -7.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 1978 |
-0.74 | -8.93 | -0.4 | 0.0 | -0.1 | 0.1 | -0.5 | -0.6 | 1.1 | 1.8 | -0.4 | -1.9 | 1.4 | -1.1 |
| 1977 |
+0.53 | -5.76 | -3.6 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 1.9 | -0.9 | 1.6 | -0.3 | -0.8 | 1.1 | -0.9 |
| 1976 |
+15.29 | +9.77 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 0.6 | -1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 3.5 | 2.0 |
| 1975 |
+5.52 | -1.50 | -0.3 | 1.1 | -3.1 | -1.3 | 2.5 | 1.2 | -1.0 | 0.5 | -1.0 | 4.6 | -0.9 | 3.3 |
| 1974 |
+4.05 | -7.18 | -0.1 | 0.5 | -2.2 | -1.1 | 1.6 | -0.2 | -1.1 | -0.8 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2.3 |
| 1973 |
+3.29 | -5.19 | -0.4 | -0.2 | -0.1 | 0.8 | -1.1 | 0.5 | -2.8 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | -0.9 |
| 1972 |
+2.35 | -1.02 | -1.0 | 0.9 | -0.1 | 0.4 | 1.2 | -0.2 | 0.7 | -1.7 | -0.3 | 1.5 | 1.5 | -0.4 |
* Note: Portofolio Returns, up to December 2002, are simulated. They have been calculated using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.
In particular, it has been used:
- IEF - iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond: simulated historical serie, up to December 2002