10-year Treasury Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns

Data Source: from January 1871 to March 2024 (~153 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 31 March 2024
Live Update: Apr 23 2024
PORTFOLIO • LIVE PERFORMANCE (USD currency)
0.13%
1 Day
Apr 23 2024
2.66%
Current Month
April 2024

The 10-year Treasury Portfolio is a Low Risk portfolio and can be implemented with 1 ETF.

It's exposed for 0% on the Stock Market.

In the last 30 Years, the 10-year Treasury Portfolio obtained a 4.85% compound annual return, with a 6.78% standard deviation.

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Asset Allocation and ETFs

The 10-year Treasury Portfolio has the following asset allocation:

0% Stocks
100% Fixed Income
0% Commodities

The 10-year Treasury Portfolio can be implemented with the following ETFs:

Weight
(%)		 Investment Themes (Orig.Currency) ETF
Ticker		 ETF
Currency		 ETF Name
100.00 Bond, U.S., Intermediate-Term (USD)
IEF
USD iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond

Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

Portfolio and ETF Returns as of Mar 31, 2024

The 10-year Treasury Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.

Returns are calculated in USD, assuming:
  • no fees or capital gain taxes.
  • the reinvestment of dividends.
  • the actual US Inflation rates.
10-YEAR TREASURY PORTFOLIO
Consolidated returns as of 31 March 2024
Live Update: Apr 23 2024
Swipe left to see all data
  Chg (%) Return (%) Return (%) as of Mar 31, 2024
  1 Day Time ET(*) Apr 2024 1M 6M 1Y 5Y 10Y 30Y MAX
(~153Y)
10-year Treasury Portfolio 0.13 -2.66 0.73 5.02 -1.56 -0.61 1.16 4.85 4.52
US Inflation Adjusted return 0.35 3.36 -4.87 -4.61 -1.63 2.25 2.35
Returns over 1 year are annualized | Available data source: since Jan 1871
(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)
US Inflation is updated to Mar 2024. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 3.48% , 5Y: 4.19% , 10Y: 2.84% , 30Y: 2.54%
Live update: World Markets and Indexes

In 2023, the 10-year Treasury Portfolio granted a 2.97% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the 10-year Treasury Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.

Capital Growth as of Mar 31, 2024

An investment of 1$, since April 1994, now would be worth 4.14$, with a total return of 314.12% (4.85% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 1.95$, with a net total return of 95.10% (2.25% annualized).
An investment of 1$, since January 1871, now would be worth 881.92$, with a total return of 88092.14% (4.52% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 35.25$, with a net total return of 3424.67% (2.35% annualized).
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Portfolio Metrics as of Mar 31, 2024

Metrics of 10-year Treasury Portfolio, updated as of 31 March 2024.

Metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:
  • no fees or capital gain taxes.
  • the reinvestment of dividends.
  • the actual US Inflation rates.
10-YEAR TREASURY PORTFOLIO
Advanced Metrics
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 31 March 2024 (~153 years)
Swipe left to see all data
Metrics as of Mar 31, 2024
1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
(~153Y)
Investment Return (%) 0.73 -1.30 5.02 -1.56 -3.82 -0.61 1.16 3.04 4.85 4.52
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) details 0.35 -2.40 3.36 -4.87 -8.95 -4.61 -1.63 0.44 2.25 2.35
US Inflation (%) 0.38 1.13 1.61 3.48 5.63 4.19 2.84 2.59 2.54 2.12
Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized.
DRAWDOWN
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -8.81 -20.50 -23.18 -23.18 -23.18 -23.18 -23.18
Start to Recovery (# months) details 11* 32* 44* 44* 44* 44* 44*
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 05 2021 08 2020 08 2020 08 2020 08 2020 08 2020 08
Start to Bottom (# months) 6 27 39 39 39 39 39
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10
Bottom to End (# months) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
End (yyyy mm) - - - - - - -
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same as
deepest
same as
deepest
same as
deepest
same as
deepest
same as
deepest
same as
deepest		 -3.78
Start to Recovery (# months) details 46
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 05 2021 08 2020 08 2020 08 2020 08 2020 08 1950 01
Start to Bottom (# months) 6 27 39 39 39 39 42
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 1953 06
Bottom to End (# months) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4
End (yyyy mm) - - - - - - 1953 10
Longest negative period (# months) details 12* 36* 60* 107 126 126 126
Period Start (yyyy mm) 2023 04 2021 04 2019 04 2014 12 2013 05 2013 05 2013 05
Period End (yyyy mm) 2024 03 2024 03 2024 03 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10
Annualized Return (%) -1.56 -3.82 -0.61 -0.12 -0.04 -0.04 -0.04
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -10.15 -29.68 -35.52 -35.52 -35.52 -35.52 -58.41
Start to Recovery (# months) details 11* 32* 46* 46* 46* 46* 543
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 05 2021 08 2020 06 2020 06 2020 06 2020 06 1941 05
Start to Bottom (# months) 6 27 41 41 41 41 485
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 1981 09
Bottom to End (# months) 5 5 5 5 5 5 58
End (yyyy mm) - - - - - - 1986 07
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same as
deepest
same as
deepest
same as
deepest
same as
deepest
same as
deepest
same as
deepest
same as
deepest
Start to Recovery (# months) details
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 05 2021 08 2020 06 2020 06 2020 06 2020 06 1941 05
Start to Bottom (# months) 6 27 41 41 41 41 485
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 1981 09
Bottom to End (# months) 5 5 5 5 5 5 58
End (yyyy mm) - - - - - - 1986 07
Longest negative period (# months) details 12* 36* 60* 120* 189 189 1025
Period Start (yyyy mm) 2023 04 2021 04 2019 04 2014 04 2008 02 2008 02 1896 05
Period End (yyyy mm) 2024 03 2024 03 2024 03 2024 03 2023 10 2023 10 1981 09
Annualized Return (%) -4.87 -8.95 -4.61 -1.63 -0.16 -0.16 -0.02
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
RISK INDICATORS
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Standard Deviation (%) 7.65 8.31 7.63 6.46 6.57 6.78 5.45
Sharpe Ratio -0.89 -0.76 -0.33 -0.01 0.26 0.38 0.10
Sortino Ratio -1.51 -1.12 -0.48 -0.01 0.37 0.55 0.15
Ulcer Index 3.94 12.32 11.70 8.74 6.54 5.65 3.32
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation -0.20 -0.46 -0.08 0.18 0.46 0.72 0.83
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown -0.18 -0.19 -0.03 0.05 0.13 0.21 0.20
% Positive Months details 41% 41% 48% 50% 52% 56% 65%
Positive Months 5 15 29 61 127 203 1210
Negative Months 7 21 31 59 113 157 629
LONG TERM RETURNS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 1.16 6.52 9.01 15.70
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 0.38 0.38 0.37
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized -1.63 4.68 6.38 11.31
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized -2.27 -2.27 -5.68
ROLLING PERIODS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Over the latest 30Y
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 25.55 13.00 9.80 9.01 7.27 4.85
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -16.44 -7.79 -0.75 0.38 2.99
% Positive Periods 74% 91% 97% 100% 100% 100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 87.50 26.75 19.05 9.88 6.06 5.87
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - - 0.49 2.86
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 22.45 10.54 7.48 6.38 4.91 2.25
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -22.45 -12.78 -4.61 -2.27 0.41
% Positive Periods 66% 82% 88% 89% 100% 100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 87.50 26.75 19.05 9.88 6.06 5.87
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - - 0.49 2.86
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Over all the available data source (Jan 1871 - Mar 2024)
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 44.35 23.66 23.75 15.70 12.08 10.36
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -16.44 -7.79 -0.75 0.37 1.54 1.94
% Positive Periods 81% 93% 98% 100% 100% 100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 87.50 26.06 14.07 7.49 3.58 2.37
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - - - -
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 41.30 19.98 19.55 11.31 8.50 7.14
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -22.45 -13.92 -12.17 -5.68 -3.10 -1.47
% Positive Periods 63% 70% 69% 67% 72% 80%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 87.50 26.06 14.07 7.49 3.58 2.37
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - - - -
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Terms and Definitions
  • Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio.
  • Deepest/Longest Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. The deepest (or maximum) drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained. The longest drawdown is the period observed from a peak to the subsequent peak with the greatest duration.
  • Longest negative period: it's the maximum period for which an overall negative return has been observed.
  • Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean.
  • Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return.
  • Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation).
  • Ulcer Index: it's a measure of downside risk that quantifies the depth and duration of drawdowns in an investment portfolio.
  • Best/Worst 10Y returns: the best and the worst 10-year return over a time frame.
  • Rolling Returns: N-year returns over a time frame, calculated over all the available data source (best, worst, % of positive returns). Each rolling period, longer than the longest negative period, yielded a non-negative minimum return.
  • Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money in any case (money amount withdrawal).
    For instance: Your initial invested capital is 100.000$; withdrawal rate (annualized) is 4%. This means that, in the first month, you will withdraw 100.000 * 4% * 1/12 = 333.33$. The second month, you’ll withdraw 333.33$ plus the inflation monthly rate. You’ll continue adjusting your withdraw monthly for inflation.
  • Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too.

Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

10-YEAR TREASURY PORTFOLIO
Drawdown periods
Drawdown periods - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 April 1994 - 31 March 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 31 March 2024 (~153 years)
Inflation Adjusted:
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Rolling Returns

( more details)

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

10-YEAR TREASURY PORTFOLIO
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 April 1994 - 31 March 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 31 March 2024 (~153 years)
Inflation Adjusted:

If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the 10-year Treasury Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.

Seasonality

In which months is it better to invest in 10-year Treasury Portfolio?

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.
For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
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Monthly Returns

This section provides a visual/tabular representation of the performance variability in the 10-year Treasury Portfolio over time. It illustrates the distribution of monthly returns, showcasing the range and frequency of positive and negative returns.

10-YEAR TREASURY PORTFOLIO
Monthly Returns Distribution
Data Source: 1 April 1994 - 31 March 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 31 March 2024 (~153 years)
203 Positive Months (56%) - 157 Negative Months (44%)
1210 Positive Months (66%) - 629 Negative Months (34%)
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(Scroll down to see all data)
Investment Returns, up to December 2002, have been derived using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.
You can find additional information on extended Data Sources here.

In particular, the series derived from equivalent datasets are:
  • IEF - iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond (IEF), up to December 2002

Portfolio efficiency

The following portfolios granted a higher return over 30 Years and a less severe drawdown at the same time.

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In the following table, you can compare the current portfolio with a list of famous portfolios. Metrics are calculated over the last 30 Years.

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