Bitcoin (^BTC): Historical Returns

Data Source: from January 2009 to June 2024 (~16 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 30 June 2024
Live Update: Jul 15 2024, 09:59PM Eastern Time
Category: Commodities
Bitcoin (^BTC) Commodity
Currency: USD
COMMODITY • LIVE PERFORMANCE (USD currency)
6.69%
1 Day
Jul 15 2024, 09:59PM Eastern Time
3.19%
Current Month
July 2024

In the last 10 Years, the Bitcoin (^BTC) Commodity obtained a 59.49% compound annual return, with a 75.39% standard deviation. It suffered a maximum drawdown of -75.57% that required 35 months to be recovered.

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The Bitcoin (^BTC) Commodity is part of the following Lazy Portfolios:

Portfolio Name Author ^BTC Weight Currency
Stocks/Bonds 60/40 with Bitcoin 2.00% USD
Stocks/Bonds 40/60 with Bitcoin 2.00% USD
All Weather Portfolio with Bitcoin Ray Dalio 2.00% USD
Permanent Portfolio with Bitcoin Harry Browne 2.00% USD
Golden Butterfly with Bitcoin 2.00% USD
Desert Portfolio with Bitcoin Gyroscopic Investing 2.00% USD
Analyze your Portfolio: Backtest Now!
Explore historical data since 1871 and fine-tune your investment strategy for better results.

Investment Returns as of Jun 30, 2024

The Bitcoin (^BTC) Commodity guaranteed the following returns.

Returns are calculated in USD, assuming:
  • no fees or capital gain taxes.
  • the actual US Inflation rates.
BITCOIN (^BTC) COMMODITY
Consolidated returns as of 30 June 2024
Live Update: Jul 15 2024, 09:59PM Eastern Time
Swipe left to see all data
  Chg (%) Return (%) Return (%) as of Jun 30, 2024
  1 Day Time ET(*) Jul 2024 1M 6M 1Y 5Y 10Y MAX
(~16Y)
Bitcoin (^BTC) Commodity 6.69 3.19 -7.13 48.30 105.66 42.10 59.49 144.83
US Inflation Adjusted return -7.08 46.26 99.71 36.41 55.13 138.71
Returns over 1 year are annualized | Available data source: since Jan 2009
(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)
US Inflation is updated to Jun 2024. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 2.98% , 5Y: 4.17% , 10Y: 2.81%
Need other portfolios? Select your currency here

Capital Growth as of Jun 30, 2024

An investment of 1$, since July 2014, now would be worth 106.52$, with a total return of 10552.26% (59.49% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 80.72$, with a net total return of 7972.36% (55.13% annualized).

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An investment of 1$, since January 2009, now would be worth 1065225.89$, with a total return of 106522488.94% (144.83% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 719333.47$, with a net total return of 71933246.72% (138.71% annualized).

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Investment Metrics as of Jun 30, 2024

Metrics of Bitcoin (^BTC) Commodity, updated as of 30 June 2024, provide a comprehensive overview of the portfolio's performance and risk characteristics.

These metrics include detailed data on returns, volatility, drawdowns and other key performance indicators. By examining them, you can gain insights into how the portfolio has performed over various time periods and understand its risk profile.

Metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:
  • no fees or capital gain taxes.
  • the actual US Inflation rates.
BITCOIN (^BTC) COMMODITY
Advanced Metrics
Data Source: 1 January 2009 - 30 June 2024 (~16 years)
Swipe left to see all data
Metrics as of Jun 30, 2024
1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y MAX
(~16Y)
Investment Return (%) -7.13 -12.13 48.30 105.66 21.39 42.10 59.49 144.83
Infl. Adjusted Return (%)
-7.08 -12.36 46.26 99.71 15.64 36.41 55.13 138.71
US Inflation (%) -0.06 0.26 1.40 2.98 4.97 4.17 2.81 2.57
Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized.
DRAWDOWN
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y MAX
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -15.00 -73.01 -73.01 -75.57 -81.56
Start to Recovery (# months)
3* 29 29 35 19
Start (yyyy mm) 2024 04 2021 11 2021 11 2018 01 2011 07
Start to Bottom (# months) 1 14 14 13 5
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2024 04 2022 12 2022 12 2019 01 2011 11
Bottom to End (# months) 2 15 15 22 14
End (yyyy mm) - 2024 03 2024 03 2020 11 2013 01
Longest Drawdown Depth (%) -14.92
same

same

same
-80.88
Start to Recovery (# months)
4 39
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 07 2021 11 2021 11 2018 01 2013 12
Start to Bottom (# months) 2 14 14 13 14
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 08 2022 12 2022 12 2019 01 2015 01
Bottom to End (# months) 2 15 15 22 25
End (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2024 03 2024 03 2020 11 2017 02
Longest negative period (# months)
3 30 35 35 40
Period Start (yyyy mm) 2023 07 2021 11 2021 03 2021 03 2013 12
Period End (yyyy mm) 2023 09 2024 04 2024 01 2024 01 2017 03
Annualized Return (%) -38.70 -0.45 -1.98 -1.98 -1.76
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -15.52 -75.04 -75.10 -76.03 -81.75
Start to Recovery (# months)
4 29 36 35 19
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 07 2021 11 2021 04 2018 01 2011 07
Start to Bottom (# months) 2 14 21 13 5
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 08 2022 12 2022 12 2019 01 2011 11
Bottom to End (# months) 2 15 15 22 14
End (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2024 03 2024 03 2020 11 2013 01
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same

same

same
-75.10 -80.93
Start to Recovery (# months)
36 41
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 07 2021 11 2021 04 2021 04 2013 12
Start to Bottom (# months) 2 14 21 21 14
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 08 2022 12 2022 12 2022 12 2015 01
Bottom to End (# months) 2 15 15 15 27
End (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2024 03 2024 03 2024 03 2017 04
Longest negative period (# months)
3 32* 39* 60 60
Period Start (yyyy mm) 2023 07 2021 11 2021 04 2018 01 2018 01
Period End (yyyy mm) 2023 09 2024 06 2024 06 2022 12 2022 12
Annualized Return (%) -41.28 -3.77 -3.18 -0.62 -0.62
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
RISK INDICATORS
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y MAX
Standard Deviation (%) 56.03 62.17 68.40 75.39 185.26
Sharpe Ratio 1.79 0.30 0.59 0.77 0.76
Sortino Ratio 2.85 0.45 0.88 1.19 2.11
Ulcer Index 7.71 44.67 37.28 40.49 43.45
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 1.89 0.34 0.62 0.79 0.78
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 7.05 0.29 0.58 0.79 1.78
Positive Months (%)
66.66 55.55 53.33 55.00 62.90
Positive Months 8 20 32 66 117
Negative Months 4 16 28 54 69
LONG TERM RETURNS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y MAX
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 59.49 238.67
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 41.93
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 55.13 232.83
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 38.08
TIMEFRAMES
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y MAX
··· Over the latest 10Y
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 1368.90 260.89 169.20 59.49
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -73.56 1.64 3.17
Positive Periods (%) 72.4 100.0 100.0 100.0
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 1338.26 253.93 163.51 55.13
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -74.08 -3.66 -0.62
Positive Periods (%) 72.4 98.8 98.3 100.0
95% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative
29.65 43.56 50.80
95% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%) 38.68 59.21 72.93
99% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative
44.48 69.25 87.13
99% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%) 53.92 85.60 110.25
Short term VaRs: analytical
Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) 48.40 15.87 14.50 21.13
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) --- --- --- 20.86
% based on initial capital, inflation-adj. monthly withdrawals afterwards | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
··· All available data (Jan 2009 - Jun 2024)
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 23946.19 1738.60 575.68 238.67
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -73.76 -13.13 3.17 41.93
Positive Periods (%) 77.1 99.3 100.0 100.0
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 23132.51 1699.80 561.70 232.83
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -74.08 -14.08 -0.62 38.08
Positive Periods (%) 71.4 98.6 99.2 100.0
95% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative
73.99 110.42 131.59 61.81 0.00 0.00
95% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%) 96.19 148.87 185.97 67.99 0.00 0.00
99% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative
110.43 173.54 220.86 73.56 0.00 0.00
99% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%) 133.62 213.71 277.67 73.76 44.77 0.00
Short term VaRs: analytical | 1+ year VaRs: historical data
Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) 31.98 11.22 10.18 9.69
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) --- --- --- 9.30
% based on initial capital, inflation-adj. monthly withdrawals afterwards | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Terms and Definitions
  • Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio.
  • Deepest/Longest Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. The deepest (or maximum) drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained. The longest drawdown is the period observed from a peak to the subsequent peak with the greatest duration.
  • Longest negative period: it's the maximum period for which an overall negative return has been observed.
  • Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean.
  • Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return.
  • Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation).
  • Ulcer Index: it's a measure of downside risk that quantifies the depth and duration of drawdowns in an investment portfolio.
  • Best/Worst 10Y returns: the best and the worst 10-year return over a time frame.
  • Rolling Returns: N-year returns over a time frame, calculated over all the available data source (best, worst, % of positive returns). Each rolling period, longer than the longest negative period, yielded a non-negative minimum return.
  • Value at Risk (VaR): it's an evaluation of a cumulative worst-case loss (in absolute value), associated with a probability (95%-99%) and a time horizon. For short term, it's calculated based on the expected return and standard deviation, assuming a normal distribution of monthly returns. For long term is retrieved by the historical rolling return data.
  • Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR): it represents the average expected loss if that worst-case threshold (95%-99%) is ever crossed.
  • Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money in any case (money amount withdrawal).
    For instance: Your initial invested capital is 100.000$; withdrawal rate (annualized) is 4%. This means that, in the first month, you will withdraw 100.000 * 4% * 1/12 = 333.33$. The second month, you’ll withdraw 333.33$ plus the inflation monthly rate. You’ll continue adjusting your withdraw monthly for inflation.
  • Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too.
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Correlations as of Jun 30, 2024

Correlation measures to what degree the returns of two assets move in relation to each other. It is a statistical measure that describes the extent to which the returns of one asset are related to the returns of another asset.

The following table shows the monthly correlations of Bitcoin (^BTC) Commodity vs the main Asset Classes, over different timeframes. Columns are sortable (click on table header to sort).

BITCOIN (^BTC) COMMODITY
Monthly correlations as of 30 June 2024
Swipe left to see all data
Correlation vs ^BTC
Asset Class 1 Year 5 Years 10 Years Since
Jan 2009
VTI
US Total Stock Market
0.34
0.55
0.35
0.15
SPY
US Large Cap Blend
0.34
0.53
0.35
0.15
IJH
US Mid Cap Blend
0.40
0.57
0.32
0.12
IJR
US Small Cap Blend
0.29
0.52
0.27
0.13
VNQ
US REITs
0.29
0.48
0.25
0.07
QQQ
US Technology
0.24
0.51
0.32
0.13
PFF
US Preferred Stocks
0.07
0.45
0.29
0.06
EFA
EAFE Stocks
0.38
0.45
0.31
0.14
VT
World All Countries
0.34
0.52
0.34
0.14
EEM
Emerging Markets
0.25
0.34
0.21
0.05
BND
US Total Bond Market
0.05
0.26
0.17
0.08
TLT
US Long Term Treasuries
0.12
0.12
0.07
-0.03
BIL
US Cash
0.05
-0.03
-0.03
-0.09
TIP
US TIPS
0.07
0.37
0.24
0.10
LQD
US Invest. Grade Bonds
0.06
0.32
0.22
0.10
HYG
US High Yield Bonds
0.11
0.47
0.31
0.11
CWB
US Convertible Bonds
0.18
0.54
0.30
0.12
BNDX
International Bonds
0.13
0.34
0.24
0.10
EMB
Emerg. Market Bonds
0.29
0.36
0.27
0.06
GLD
Gold
0.33
0.20
0.12
0.00
DBC
Commodities
-0.35
0.18
0.18
0.07
Terms and Definitions
Correlation values range between -1 and +1
  • A correlation of +1 indicates that the returns of the two assets move in perfect synchrony; when one asset's returns go up, the other asset's returns also go up by the same percentage, and vice versa. This perfect positive correlation implies that the assets perform similarly in different market conditions.
  • A correlation of -1 indicates a perfect inverse relationship between the returns of the two assets. When one asset's returns go up, the other asset's returns go down by the same percentage. This perfect negative correlation suggests that the assets move in opposite directions, providing a diversification benefit by reducing overall portfolio risk.
  • A correlation of 0 means that there is no linear relationship between the returns of the two assets. The returns of one asset do not predict the returns of the other.
Learn about historical correlations here: see how the main asset classes relate to each other.

Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

BITCOIN (^BTC) COMMODITY
Drawdown periods
Drawdown periods - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 July 2014 - 30 June 2024 (10 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 2009 - 30 June 2024 (~16 years)
Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Returns

( more details)

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

BITCOIN (^BTC) COMMODITY
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 July 2014 - 30 June 2024 (10 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 2009 - 30 June 2024 (~16 years)
Inflation Adjusted:

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If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Bitcoin (^BTC) Commodity: Rolling Returns page.

Seasonality

In which months is it better to invest in Bitcoin (^BTC) Commodity?

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.

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For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.

Monthly Returns

This section provides a visual/tabular representation of the performance variability in the Bitcoin (^BTC) Commodity over time. It illustrates the distribution of monthly returns, showcasing the range and frequency of positive and negative returns.

BITCOIN (^BTC) COMMODITY
Monthly Returns Distribution
Data Source: 1 July 2014 - 30 June 2024 (10 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 2009 - 30 June 2024 (~16 years)
66 Positive Months (55%) - 54 Negative Months (45%)
117 Positive Months (63%) - 69 Negative Months (37%)

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The first official book of
Build wealth
with Lazy Portfolios and Passive Investing