10-year Treasury Portfolio vs Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio Portfolio Comparison

Simulation Settings
Period: January 1871 - June 2025 (~155 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 30 June 2025
Initial Amount: 1$
Rebalancing: at every Jan 1st
Currency: USD
Inflation: US
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The minimum date range must be at least 12 months. 'Date To' cannot be beyond June 2025.
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Results
30 Years
(1995/07 - 2025/06)
All Data
(1871/01 - 2025/06)
Inflation Adjusted:
10-year Treasury Portfolio
1.00$
Invested Capital
July 1995
3.85$
Final Capital
June 2025
4.60%
Yearly Return
6.75%
Std Deviation
-23.19%
Max Drawdown
59months*
Recovery Period
* in progress
1.00$
Invested Capital
July 1995
1.83$
Final Capital
June 2025
2.04%
Yearly Return
6.75%
Std Deviation
-35.52%
Max Drawdown
61months*
Recovery Period
* in progress
1.00$
Invested Capital
January 1871
934.39$
Final Capital
June 2025
4.53%
Yearly Return
5.46%
Std Deviation
-23.19%
Max Drawdown
59months*
Recovery Period
* in progress
1.00$
Invested Capital
January 1871
36.36$
Final Capital
June 2025
2.35%
Yearly Return
5.46%
Std Deviation
-58.41%
Max Drawdown
543months
Recovery Period
Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio
1.00$
Invested Capital
July 1995
8.45$
Final Capital
June 2025
7.37%
Yearly Return
7.45%
Std Deviation
-20.58%
Max Drawdown
42months
Recovery Period
1.00$
Invested Capital
July 1995
4.01$
Final Capital
June 2025
4.74%
Yearly Return
7.45%
Std Deviation
-27.85%
Max Drawdown
46months*
Recovery Period
* in progress
1.00$
Invested Capital
January 1871
13.09 K$
Final Capital
June 2025
6.33%
Yearly Return
6.56%
Std Deviation
-37.02%
Max Drawdown
68months
Recovery Period
1.00$
Invested Capital
January 1871
509.51$
Final Capital
June 2025
4.12%
Yearly Return
6.56%
Std Deviation
-47.73%
Max Drawdown
124months
Recovery Period

As of June 2025, in the previous 30 Years, the 10-year Treasury Portfolio obtained a 4.60% compound annual return, with a 6.75% standard deviation. It suffered a maximum drawdown of -23.19% which has been ongoing for 59 months and is still in progress.

As of June 2025, in the previous 30 Years, the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio obtained a 7.37% compound annual return, with a 7.45% standard deviation. It suffered a maximum drawdown of -20.58% that required 42 months to be recovered.

Disclaimer: The simulations on this website are provided in good faith but should NOT be taken as investment advice. We are not liable for any errors or actions based on this information. The authors of the website are not affiliated with the portfolio creators, who are the sole owners of their intellectual property. The translation of asset allocations into ETFs is based on the interpretation of LazyPortfolioETF.com and may not exactly reflect the original intent of the portfolio creators. Content is for informational, educational, illustrative, and entertainment purposes only.
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Asset Allocations and ETFs

The compared portfolios have the following asset allocations.

10-year Treasury Portfolio
Weight
(%)		 Ticker Name
100.00
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond
Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio
Weight
(%)		 Ticker Name
30.00
VTI
Vanguard Total Stock Market
40.00
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond
15.00
IEI
iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond
7.50
DBC
Invesco DB Commodity Tracking
7.50
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust
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Portfolio Returns as of Jun 30, 2025

Returns are calculated in USD, assuming:
  • no fees or capital gain taxes.
  • rebalancing: at every Jan 1st.
  • dividend reinvestment, when applicable.
Return Comparison
Capital Growth
30 Years
(1995/07 - 2025/06)
All Data
(1871/01 - 2025/06)
Inflation Adjusted:
Swipe left to see all data
Initial Amount $ Final Amount $ Total Return (%) Annualized (%)
10-year Treasury
 1 $ 3.85 $ 285.23% 4.60%
Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio
Ray Dalio 		1 $ 8.45 $ 744.53% 7.37%
Jul 1995 Jun 2025

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Initial Amount $ Final Amount $ Total Return (%) Annualized (%)
10-year Treasury
 1 $ 1.83 $ 83.08% 2.04%
Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio
Ray Dalio 		1 $ 4.01 $ 301.37% 4.74%
Jul 1995 Jun 2025

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Initial Amount $ Final Amount $ Total Return (%) Annualized (%)
10-year Treasury
 1 $ 934.39 $ 93 339.27% 4.53%
Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio
Ray Dalio 		1 $ 13 092.92 $ 1 309 191.88% 6.33%
Jan 1871 Jun 2025

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Initial Amount $ Final Amount $ Total Return (%) Annualized (%)
10-year Treasury
 1 $ 36.36 $ 3 536.17% 2.35%
Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio
Ray Dalio 		1 $ 509.51 $ 50 850.76% 4.12%
Jan 1871 Jun 2025

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Return (%) as of Jun 30, 2025
YTD
(6M) 		1M 6M 1Y 5Y 10Y 30Y MAX
(~155Y)
https://www.lazyportfolioetf.com/wp-content/themes/dynamico-child/img/author/avatar_us_author.webp 10-year Treasury
-- Market Benchmark 		5.24 1.60 5.24 6.14 -2.55 1.17 4.60 4.53
https://www.lazyportfolioetf.com/wp-content/themes/dynamico-child/img/author/avatar_ray_dalio.webp All Weather Portfolio
Ray Dalio 		5.58 3.08 5.58 8.88 3.14 5.41 7.37 6.33
Returns over 1 year are annualized.
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Portfolio Metrics as of Jun 30, 2025

The following metrics, updated as of 30 June 2025, provide an overview of performance and risk, with the best value in each row highlighted within the table.

METRIC COMPARISON
Period: 1 July 2024 - 30 June 2025 (1 year)
Period: 1 July 2020 - 30 June 2025 (5 years)
Period: 1 July 2015 - 30 June 2025 (10 years)
Period: 1 July 1995 - 30 June 2025 (30 years)
Period: 1 January 1871 - 30 June 2025 (~155 years)
1 Year
5 Years
10 Years
30 Years
All (1871/01 - 2025/06)
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10-year Treasury All Weather Portfolio
Author Ray Dalio
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks 0% 30%
Fixed Income 100% 55%
Commodities 0% 15%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%) 6.14 8.88
Infl. Adjusted (%) 3.62 6.30
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -4.61 -3.45
Start to Recovery (months) 7 3
Longest Drawdown Depth (%) -4.61 -1.94
Start to Recovery (months) 7 4
Longest Negative Period (months) 8 8
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%) 6.33 7.03
Sharpe Ratio 0.24 0.60
Sortino Ratio 0.29 0.76
Ulcer Index 2.13 1.43
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 0.97 1.26
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 1.33 2.57
Metrics calculated over the period 1 July 2024 - 30 June 2025
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10-year Treasury All Weather Portfolio
Author Ray Dalio
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks 0% 30%
Fixed Income 100% 55%
Commodities 0% 15%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%) -2.55 3.14
Infl. Adjusted (%) -6.77 -1.33
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -23.19 -20.58
Start to Recovery (months) 59* 42
Longest Drawdown Depth (%) -23.19 -20.58
Start to Recovery (months) 59* 42
Longest Negative Period (months) 60* 45
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%) 7.51 10.40
Sharpe Ratio -0.70 0.04
Sortino Ratio -0.99 0.06
Ulcer Index 14.06 9.55
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation -0.34 0.30
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown -0.11 0.15
Metrics calculated over the period 1 July 2020 - 30 June 2025
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10-year Treasury All Weather Portfolio
Author Ray Dalio
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks 0% 30%
Fixed Income 100% 55%
Commodities 0% 15%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%) 1.17 5.41
Infl. Adjusted (%) -1.82 2.30
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -23.19 -20.58
Start to Recovery (months) 59* 42
Longest Drawdown Depth (%) -23.19 -20.58
Start to Recovery (months) 59* 42
Longest Negative Period (months) 103 46
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%) 6.59 8.45
Sharpe Ratio -0.10 0.42
Sortino Ratio -0.14 0.58
Ulcer Index 10.32 6.92
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 0.18 0.64
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 0.05 0.26
Metrics calculated over the period 1 July 2015 - 30 June 2025
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10-year Treasury All Weather Portfolio
Author Ray Dalio
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks 0% 30%
Fixed Income 100% 55%
Commodities 0% 15%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%) 4.60 7.37
Infl. Adjusted (%) 2.04 4.74
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -23.19 -20.58
Start to Recovery (months) 59* 42
Longest Drawdown Depth (%) -23.19 -20.58
Start to Recovery (months) 59* 42
Longest Negative Period (months) 126 46
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%) 6.75 7.45
Sharpe Ratio 0.35 0.68
Sortino Ratio 0.49 0.92
Ulcer Index 6.49 4.46
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 0.68 0.99
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 0.20 0.36
Metrics calculated over the period 1 July 1995 - 30 June 2025
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10-year Treasury All Weather Portfolio
Author Ray Dalio
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks 0% 30%
Fixed Income 100% 55%
Commodities 0% 15%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%) 4.53 6.33
Infl. Adjusted (%) 2.35 4.12
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -23.19 -37.02
Start to Recovery (months) 59* 68
Longest Drawdown Depth (%) -23.19 -37.02
Start to Recovery (months) 59* 68
Longest Negative Period (months) 126 84
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%) 5.46 6.56
Sharpe Ratio 0.10 0.35
Sortino Ratio 0.14 0.50
Ulcer Index 3.60 4.57
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 0.83 0.96
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 0.20 0.17
Metrics calculated over the period 1 January 1871 - 30 June 2025
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Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

DRAWDOWN COMPARISON
Period: 1 July 1995 - 30 June 2025 (30 years)
Period: 1 January 1871 - 30 June 2025 (~155 years)
30 Years
(1995/07 - 2025/06)

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10-year Treasury All Weather Portfolio
Drawdown
(%) 		Recovery
(#Months)		 From
To		 Drawdown
(%) 		Recovery
(#Months)		 From
To
-23.19 59* Aug 2020
In progress
-20.58 42 Jan 2022
Jun 2025
-11.57 9 Jan 2009
Sep 2009
-11.38 6 Jul 2008
Dec 2008
-9.34 23 Oct 1998
Aug 2000
-7.60 19 May 2013
Nov 2014
-7.18 34 Aug 2016
May 2019
-6.90 10 Feb 1996
Nov 1996
-6.66 17 Feb 2015
Jun 2016
-6.65 18 Jan 2009
Jun 2010
-6.60 9 Nov 2001
Jul 2002
-6.42 13 Aug 2016
Aug 2017
-5.68 7 Jun 2003
Dec 2003
-5.29 9 May 2013
Jan 2014
-4.85 7 Apr 2004
Oct 2004

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10-year Treasury All Weather Portfolio
Drawdown
(%) 		Recovery
(#Months)		 From
To		 Drawdown
(%) 		Recovery
(#Months)		 From
To
-37.02 68 Sep 1929
Apr 1935
-23.19 59* Aug 2020
In progress
-20.58 42 Jan 2022
Jun 2025
-17.43 37 Mar 1937
Mar 1940
-15.76 11 Jul 1979
May 1980
-14.57 17 Jul 1980
Nov 1981
-12.98 25 Dec 1968
Dec 1970
-12.31 21 Dec 1980
Aug 1982
-11.57 9 Jan 2009
Sep 2009
-11.38 6 Jul 2008
Dec 2008
-11.04 11 Mar 1974
Jan 1975
-10.89 4 Feb 1980
May 1980
-10.87 11 Mar 1987
Jan 1988
-10.14 19 Nov 1993
May 1995
-9.55 23 Oct 1906
Aug 1908

Rolling Returns

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the Simulation Settings.

You can explore the Rolling Returns for a single portfolio, or check the return differential, by switching on "Head To Head" toggle.

Rolling Returns Comparison
Annualized Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 January 1871 - 30 June 2025 (~155 years)


Head To Head (Ptf 1 vs Ptf 2):
US Inflation Adjusted:

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Yearly Returns

For each year, the following table provides the return and intra-year drawdown. The highlighted returns represent the highest values for that specific year.

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10-year Treasury All Weather Portfolio
Year Return
(%)		 Drawdown
(%)		 Return
(%)		 Drawdown
(%)
2025
 5.24 -1.24 5.58 -1.94
2024
 -0.63 -4.61 6.36 -3.73
2023
 3.65 -8.82 9.95 -9.25
2022
 -15.19 -16.91 -18.39 -20.58
2021
 -3.33 -5.73 8.27 -3.74
2020
 10.01 -2.02 15.88 -3.68
2019
 8.03 -2.59 17.93 -0.83
2018
 0.99 -3.19 -3.02 -4.71
2017
 2.55 -1.90 11.55 -0.49
2016
 1.00 -6.50 6.50 -6.42
2015
 1.51 -4.25 -3.23 -6.66
2014
 9.07 -1.05 12.89 -2.52
2013
 -6.09 -7.60 1.71 -5.29
2012
 3.66 -2.67 7.02 -1.33
2011
 15.64 -1.29 15.64 -2.00
2010
 9.37 -4.30 12.88 -0.69
2009
 -6.59 -6.65 2.71 -11.57
2008
 17.91 -4.15 2.38 -11.38
2007
 10.37 -1.85 11.88 -1.20
2006
 2.52 -2.87 6.93 -1.71
2005
 2.64 -3.19 8.55 -2.99
2004
 4.12 -4.85 9.41 -4.76
2003
 5.29 -5.68 13.96 -4.74
2002
 15.45 -4.13 7.77 -1.56
2001
 5.40 -5.21 -2.77 -4.61
2000
 17.28 -1.12 10.15 -2.26
1999
 -7.83 -8.11 6.28 -3.79
1998
 14.64 -1.61 11.05 -4.83
1997
 11.97 -2.02 13.54 -2.89
1996
 0.00 -6.90 8.27 -2.11
1995
 25.55 -1.23 27.44 0.00
1994
 -7.19 -9.56 -3.28 -6.83
1993
 12.97 -2.55 12.02 -1.98
1992
 7.23 -4.02 6.76 -2.23
1991
 18.91 -0.54 17.98 -1.86
1990
 7.70 -4.48 3.85 -5.51
1989
 17.84 -2.30 20.45 -1.14
1988
 6.90 -4.60 10.59 -1.93
1987
 -2.64 -10.87 3.47 -8.78
1986
 21.35 -3.93 20.56 -3.75
1985
 29.85 -3.33 28.68 -2.13
1984
 14.87 -7.99 8.03 -6.61
1983
 2.30 -6.29 7.06 -3.16
1982
 39.57 -2.66 31.65 -3.13
1981
 5.28 -7.42 -3.74 -11.76
1980
 -1.29 -11.52 10.35 -10.89
1979
 1.83 -8.62 19.26 -6.57
1978
 -0.74 -2.31 7.24 -3.43
1977
 0.53 -3.55 2.14 -2.83
1976
 15.29 -1.33 15.78 -1.12
1975
 5.52 -4.42 12.93 -5.16
1974
 4.05 -3.79 1.78 -11.04
1973
 3.29 -3.40 6.67 -2.66
1972
 2.35 -2.01 14.50 0.00
1971
 11.24 -7.34 14.60 -3.81
1970
 18.93 -5.54 10.73 -7.59
1969
 -5.63 -7.29 -7.07 -8.33
1968
 6.26 -3.63 5.61 -2.31
1967
 -3.08 -5.97 4.93 -2.43
1966
 5.46 -3.03 -0.21 -6.05
1965
 0.72 -1.64 4.08 -1.14
1964
 3.65 -0.06 7.34 -0.33
1963
 1.64 -0.38 6.73 -1.03
1962
 5.83 -0.48 0.34 -6.12
1961
 2.10 -1.70 7.57 -1.53
1960
 11.66 -0.41 8.59 -1.47
1959
 -1.12 -3.37 1.91 -2.83
1958
 -2.10 -5.86 9.85 -0.95
1957
 5.92 -3.36 1.56 -3.70
1956
 -2.68 -3.65 0.45 -3.72
1955
 -1.13 -2.16 6.44 -0.66
1954
 3.13 -0.84 17.99 -1.18
1953
 2.19 -3.70 0.83 -4.42
1952
 1.89 -1.78 4.21 -1.76
1951
 -0.56 -2.77 4.78 -2.55
1950
 -1.39 -1.65 9.14 -1.91
1949
 4.92 -0.12 8.58 -0.97
1948
 2.72 -0.72 1.89 -3.09
1947
 -1.38 -2.99 1.53 -1.94
1946
 0.36 -1.88 -0.92 -7.07
1945
 5.77 -0.94 15.78 -0.88
1944
 2.27 0.00 7.97 -0.39
1943
 1.98 -0.10 9.97 -2.77
1942
 1.78 -0.45 6.45 -3.58
1941
 2.73 -1.73 -1.20 -4.99
1940
 6.10 -1.80 1.87 -7.70
1939
 4.02 -4.74 2.79 -3.74
1938
 4.38 -0.49 10.37 -7.91
1937
 1.27 -2.41 -10.07 -12.18
1936
 5.37 -0.04 14.42 -2.08
1935
 4.30 -1.07 16.55 -1.39
1934
 7.94 -1.90 8.27 -3.11
1933
 1.81 -2.00 23.55 -7.04
1932
 8.90 -2.36 5.54 -10.85
1931
 -2.56 -4.95 -17.79 -21.07
1930
 4.57 -0.39 -5.90 -10.68
1929
 4.44 -1.50 -1.20 -10.34
1928
 0.97 -1.23 11.11 -1.64
1927
 6.82 0.00 14.04 -1.26
1926
 5.82 0.00 6.53 -2.18
1925
 5.31 -0.17 10.80 -1.86
1924
 7.49 -0.16 13.10 -0.48
1923
 4.19 -0.04 4.44 -3.38
1922
 5.64 -0.73 12.65 -1.45
1921
 13.13 0.00 9.83 -2.12
1920
 1.43 -3.24 -5.55 -5.68
1919
 2.57 -0.68 5.81 -2.69
1918
 4.60 -1.27 7.85 -0.84
1917
 -2.28 -4.06 -7.65 -7.65
1916
 3.78 -0.86 7.39 -0.65
1915
 4.51 -0.88 14.08 -0.61
1914
 1.79 -0.80 0.88 -4.99
1913
 1.68 -2.83 -0.05 -2.01
1912
 4.01 -0.15 3.48 -1.15
1911
 1.86 -1.26 3.28 -2.93
1910
 2.84 -0.36 0.15 -3.13
1909
 -0.85 -2.48 6.57 -0.53
1908
 5.53 -0.75 16.74 -0.51
1907
 -6.38 -7.33 -8.40 -8.70
1906
 3.21 -1.01 0.59 -3.33
1905
 2.69 -2.49 7.83 -1.78
1904
 0.53 -0.68 12.56 -0.84
1903
 2.04 -1.21 -4.67 -7.60
1902
 -0.08 -4.81 3.24 -2.40
1901
 4.10 -0.79 6.47 -2.76
1900
 6.14 -1.37 8.45 -1.38
1899
 7.64 -0.37 2.72 -2.13
1898
 2.65 -6.31 11.99 -4.26
1897
 11.31 -0.69 9.70 -0.85
1896
 2.95 -4.43 2.87 -5.53
1895
 7.80 -4.07 2.80 -4.23
1894
 4.33 -0.91 4.58 -1.05
1893
 3.79 -2.27 -4.72 -9.21
1892
 0.66 -1.54 3.45 -0.93
1891
 -0.82 -3.77 7.45 -2.60
1890
 -0.41 -2.94 -1.50 -4.15
1889
 2.36 -0.75 5.38 -0.71
1888
 5.24 -1.11 4.41 -1.57
1887
 0.62 -2.47 -0.36 -4.08
1886
 7.20 -0.14 5.02 -1.39
1885
 4.15 -0.70 11.99 -0.98
1884
 2.46 -2.98 -1.97 -5.63
1883
 6.44 -0.71 0.14 -2.08
1882
 5.46 -0.63 3.24 -1.91
1881
 8.87 -1.40 3.46 -3.20
1880
 12.45 -0.82 12.13 -2.30
1879
 7.32 -0.63 17.34 -0.47
1878
 2.37 -1.30 7.44 -0.16
1877
 -2.01 -3.27 1.94 -4.81
1876
 -2.30 -4.98 -0.20 -3.96
1875
 4.92 -3.56 7.61 -1.41
1874
 6.58 -3.03 7.35 -1.45
1873
 5.59 -5.41 1.49 -7.70
1872
 6.04 -2.60 5.32 -2.48
1871
 10.11 -1.22 8.01 -1.75
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