10-year Treasury Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns

Data Source: from January 1871 to November 2023 (~153 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 30 November 2023
Live Update: Dec 01 2023
PORTFOLIO • LIVE PERFORMANCE (USD currency)
0.94%
1 Day
Dec 01 2023
0.94%
Current Month
December 2023

The 10-year Treasury Portfolio is a Low Risk portfolio and can be implemented with 1 ETF.

It's exposed for 0% on the Stock Market.

In the last 30 Years, the 10-year Treasury Portfolio obtained a 4.59% compound annual return, with a 6.81% standard deviation.

Table of contents

Asset Allocation and ETFs

The 10-year Treasury Portfolio has the following asset allocation:

0% Stocks
100% Fixed Income
0% Commodities

The 10-year Treasury Portfolio can be implemented with the following ETFs:

Weight (%) Ticker Currency ETF Name Investment Themes
100.00
IEF
USD iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Bond, U.S., Intermediate-Term

Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

Portfolio and ETF Returns as of Nov 30, 2023

The 10-year Treasury Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.

Returns are calculated in USD, assuming:
  • no fees or capital gain taxes.
  • the reinvestment of dividends.
10-YEAR TREASURY PORTFOLIO
Consolidated returns as of 30 November 2023
Live Update: Dec 01 2023
Swipe left to see all data
  Chg (%) Return (%) Return (%) as of Nov 30, 2023
  1 Day Time ET(*) Dec 2023 1M 6M 1Y 5Y 10Y 30Y MAX
(~153Y)
10-year Treasury Portfolio 0.94 0.94 4.55 -3.28 -1.61 0.01 0.99 4.59 4.52
US Inflation Adjusted return 4.55 -4.39 -4.79 -3.90 -1.78 2.02 2.35
Returns over 1 year are annualized | Available data source: since Jan 1871
(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)
US Inflation is updated to Oct 2023. Waiting for updates, inflation of Nov 2023 is set to 0%. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 3.35% , 5Y: 4.07% , 10Y: 2.82% , 30Y: 2.52%

In 2022, the 10-year Treasury Portfolio granted a 1.61% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the 10-year Treasury Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.

Capital Growth as of Nov 30, 2023

An investment of 1$, since December 1993, now would be worth 3.85$, with a total return of 284.72% (4.59% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 1.82$, with a net total return of 82.31% (2.02% annualized).
An investment of 1$, since January 1871, now would be worth 861.06$, with a total return of 86006.00% (4.52% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 34.91$, with a net total return of 3390.79% (2.35% annualized).

Portfolio Metrics as of Nov 30, 2023

Metrics of 10-year Treasury Portfolio, updated as of 30 November 2023.

Metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:
  • no fees or capital gain taxes.
  • the reinvestment of dividends.
10-YEAR TREASURY PORTFOLIO
Advanced Metrics
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 30 November 2023 (~153 years)
Swipe left to see all data
Metrics as of Nov 30, 2023
1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
(~153Y)
Investment Return (%) 4.55 -0.68 -3.28 -1.61 -6.52 0.01 0.99 3.22 4.59 4.52
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) details 4.55 -0.89 -4.39 -4.79 -11.59 -3.90 -1.78 0.62 2.02 2.35
US Inflation (%) 0.00 0.21 1.17 3.35 5.74 4.07 2.82 2.59 2.52 2.12
Waiting for updates, inflation of Nov 2023 is temporarily set to 0%. Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized.
DRAWDOWN
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -8.81 -21.86 -23.18 -23.18 -23.18 -23.18 -23.18
Start to Recovery (# months) details 7* 36* 40* 40* 40* 40* 40*
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 05 2020 12 2020 08 2020 08 2020 08 2020 08 2020 08
Start to Bottom (# months) 6 35 39 39 39 39 39
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10
Bottom to End (# months) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
End (yyyy mm) - - - - - - -
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest
-3.78
Start to Recovery (# months) details 46
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 05 2020 12 2020 08 2020 08 2020 08 2020 08 1950 01
Start to Bottom (# months) 6 35 39 39 39 39 42
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 1953 06
Bottom to End (# months) 1 1 1 1 1 1 4
End (yyyy mm) - - - - - - 1953 10
Longest negative period (# months) details 12* 36* 59 107 126 126 126
Period Start (yyyy mm) 2022 12 2020 12 2018 12 2014 12 2013 05 2013 05 2013 05
Period End (yyyy mm) 2023 11 2023 11 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10
Annualized Return (%) -1.61 -6.52 -0.89 -0.12 -0.04 -0.04 -0.04
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -10.32 -33.91 -35.41 -35.41 -35.41 -35.41 -58.48
Start to Recovery (# months) details 10* 36* 42* 42* 42* 42* 543
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 02 2020 12 2020 06 2020 06 2020 06 2020 06 1941 05
Start to Bottom (# months) 9 35 41 41 41 41 485
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 1981 09
Bottom to End (# months) 1 1 1 1 1 1 58
End (yyyy mm) - - - - - - 1986 07
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest
Start to Recovery (# months) details
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 02 2020 12 2020 06 2020 06 2020 06 2020 06 1941 05
Start to Bottom (# months) 9 35 41 41 41 41 485
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 1981 09
Bottom to End (# months) 1 1 1 1 1 1 58
End (yyyy mm) - - - - - - 1986 07
Longest negative period (# months) details 12* 36* 60* 120* 191 191 1025
Period Start (yyyy mm) 2022 12 2020 12 2018 12 2013 12 2007 12 2007 12 1896 05
Period End (yyyy mm) 2023 11 2023 11 2023 11 2023 11 2023 10 2023 10 1981 09
Annualized Return (%) -4.79 -11.59 -3.90 -1.78 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
RISK INDICATORS
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Standard Deviation (%) 8.89 8.03 7.58 6.42 6.53 6.81 5.45
Sharpe Ratio -0.73 -1.05 -0.22 -0.01 0.30 0.35 0.10
Sortino Ratio -1.22 -1.58 -0.32 -0.01 0.43 0.49 0.15
Ulcer Index 3.90 12.64 10.82 8.15 6.15 5.53 3.22
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation -0.18 -0.81 0.00 0.15 0.49 0.67 0.83
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown -0.18 -0.30 0.00 0.04 0.14 0.20 0.19
% Positive Months details 33% 33% 48% 50% 53% 56% 65%
Positive Months 4 12 29 60 128 202 1207
Negative Months 8 24 31 60 112 158 628
LONG TERM RETURNS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 0.99 6.52 9.01 15.70
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 0.38 0.38 0.37
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized -1.78 4.70 6.38 11.31
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized -2.28 -2.28 -5.69
ROLLING PERIOD RETURNS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Over the latest 30Y
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 25.55 13.00 9.80 9.01 7.27 4.59
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -16.44 -7.79 -0.75 0.38 2.99
% Positive Periods 73% 92% 98% 100% 100% 100%
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 22.44 10.49 7.50 6.38 4.93 2.02
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -22.45 -12.78 -4.44 -2.28 0.41
% Positive Periods 65% 84% 89% 91% 100% 100%
Over all the available data source (Jan 1871 - Nov 2023)
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 44.35 23.66 23.75 15.70 12.08 10.36
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -16.44 -7.79 -0.75 0.37 1.54 1.94
% Positive Periods 81% 93% 99% 100% 100% 100%
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 41.16 19.98 19.55 11.31 8.50 7.14
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -22.45 -13.92 -12.17 -5.69 -3.10 -1.47
% Positive Periods 62% 71% 69% 67% 72% 80%
WITHDRAWAL RATES (WR)
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Safe WR (%) 28.53 20.57 10.48 6.35 5.50 4.10
Perpetual WR (%) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.61 1.98 2.30
Terms and Definitions
  • Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio
  • Deepest/Longest Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. The deepest (or maximum) drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained. The longest drawdown is the period observed from a peak to the subsequent peak with the greatest duration.
  • Longest negative period: it's the maximum period for which an overall negative return has been observed
  • Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean
  • Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return
  • Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation)
  • Ulcer Index: it's a measure of downside risk that quantifies the depth and duration of drawdowns in an investment portfolio
  • Best/Worst 10Y returns: the best and the worst 10-year return over a time frame
  • Rolling Returns: N-year returns over a time frame, calculated over all the available data source (best, worst, % of positive returns). Each rolling period, longer than the longest negative period, yielded a non-negative minimum return.
  • Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the original portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money (dollar amount withdrawal).
  • Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year, while retaining the inflation adjusted portfolio balance (percentage withdrawal).
Analyze your Portfolio: Backtest Now!
Explore historical data since 1871 and fine-tune your investment strategy for better results.

Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

10-YEAR TREASURY PORTFOLIO
Drawdown periods
Drawdown periods - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 December 1993 - 30 November 2023 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 30 November 2023 (~153 years)
Inflation Adjusted:
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months Ulcer Index
-23.18% Aug 2020 Oct 2023 39 in progress 1 40 13.19
-9.56% Feb 1994 Nov 1994 10 May 1995 6 16 6.64
-9.34% Oct 1998 Jan 2000 16 Aug 2000 7 23 5.17
-7.60% May 2013 Dec 2013 8 Nov 2014 11 19 4.38
-7.18% Aug 2016 Apr 2018 21 May 2019 13 34 4.82
-6.90% Feb 1996 May 1996 4 Nov 1996 6 10 4.58
-6.65% Jan 2009 Jun 2009 6 Jun 2010 12 18 4.33
-6.60% Nov 2001 Mar 2002 5 Jul 2002 4 9 3.77
-5.68% Jun 2003 Jul 2003 2 Dec 2003 5 7 2.83
-4.85% Apr 2004 May 2004 2 Oct 2004 5 7 2.96
-4.67% Sep 2010 Mar 2011 7 Jul 2011 4 11 2.74
-4.25% Feb 2015 Jun 2015 5 Jan 2016 7 12 2.34
-4.15% Apr 2008 May 2008 2 Nov 2008 6 8 2.19
-4.13% Oct 2002 Nov 2002 2 Feb 2003 3 5 2.02
-4.08% Jul 2005 May 2006 11 Sep 2006 4 15 2.49
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months Ulcer Index
-35.41% Jun 2020 Oct 2023 41 in progress 1 42 21.21
-12.13% Oct 1998 Jan 2000 16 Dec 2000 11 27 7.07
-11.68% Feb 1994 Nov 1994 10 May 1995 6 16 8.19
-11.55% Aug 2016 Oct 2018 27 Aug 2019 10 37 7.26
-9.06% Jan 2009 Dec 2009 12 Aug 2010 8 20 6.12
-8.46% Jan 1996 May 1996 5 Jul 1997 14 19 5.00
-8.44% Aug 2012 Dec 2013 17 Jan 2015 13 30 4.82
-7.87% Jul 2005 May 2006 11 Nov 2007 18 29 4.10
-7.18% Nov 2001 Mar 2002 5 Jul 2002 4 9 4.06
-6.87% Sep 2010 Mar 2011 7 Aug 2011 5 12 3.90
-6.23% Feb 2015 Jun 2015 5 Feb 2016 8 13 3.58
-5.88% Jun 2003 Jul 2003 2 Jan 2004 6 8 2.97
-5.71% Apr 2004 May 2004 2 Jun 2005 13 15 2.97
-5.52% Apr 2008 May 2008 2 Nov 2008 6 8 3.79
-4.29% Oct 2002 Nov 2002 2 May 2003 6 8 1.86
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months Ulcer Index
-23.18% Aug 2020 Oct 2023 39 in progress 1 40 13.19
-15.76% Jul 1979 Feb 1980 8 May 1980 3 11 7.54
-14.57% Jul 1980 Sep 1981 15 Nov 1981 2 17 9.19
-10.87% Mar 1987 Sep 1987 7 Jan 1988 4 11 5.88
-10.14% Nov 1993 Nov 1994 13 May 1995 6 19 6.64
-9.34% Oct 1998 Jan 2000 16 Aug 2000 7 23 5.17
-9.06% Sep 1968 Dec 1969 16 Sep 1970 9 25 4.34
-7.99% Feb 1984 May 1984 4 Aug 1984 3 7 4.01
-7.78% May 1958 Sep 1959 17 Jul 1960 10 27 4.90
-7.60% May 2013 Dec 2013 8 Nov 2014 11 19 4.38
-7.34% Apr 1971 Jul 1971 4 Oct 1971 3 7 4.31
-7.33% May 1907 Dec 1907 8 Jan 1911 37 45 2.89
-7.19% Sep 1931 Jan 1932 5 Jul 1932 6 11 3.56
-7.18% Aug 2016 Apr 2018 21 May 2019 13 34 4.82
-6.90% Feb 1996 May 1996 4 Nov 1996 6 10 4.58
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months Ulcer Index
-58.48% May 1941 Sep 1981 485 Jul 1986 58 543 32.02
-51.09% Jul 1901 Jun 1920 228 Apr 1929 106 334 19.09
-35.41% Jun 2020 Oct 2023 41 in progress 1 42 21.21
-15.73% Jul 1879 Jan 1880 7 Jan 1881 12 19 7.75
-13.79% Aug 1897 May 1898 10 Jan 1899 8 18 5.19
-13.55% Jul 1892 Feb 1893 8 Dec 1893 10 18 7.12
-13.51% Mar 1987 Sep 1987 7 Jun 1989 21 28 6.32
-13.30% Jul 1876 Jan 1877 7 Jan 1878 12 19 6.65
-12.71% Oct 1993 Nov 1994 14 Jun 1995 7 21 8.09
-12.13% Oct 1998 Jan 2000 16 Dec 2000 11 27 7.07
-11.55% Aug 2016 Oct 2018 27 Aug 2019 10 37 7.26
-9.95% Feb 1899 Nov 1899 10 Dec 1900 13 23 6.14
-9.06% Jan 2009 Dec 2009 12 Aug 2010 8 20 6.12
-8.46% Jan 1996 May 1996 5 Jul 1997 14 19 5.00
-8.44% Aug 2012 Dec 2013 17 Jan 2015 13 30 4.82

Rolling Returns

( more details)

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

10-YEAR TREASURY PORTFOLIO
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 December 1993 - 30 November 2023 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 30 November 2023 (~153 years)
Inflation Adjusted:
Swipe left to see all data
Rolling
Period
Worst Period
15th Percentile
50th Percentile
85th Percentile
Best Period
Latest Negative
Periods
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
1Y -16.44 11/2021
10/2022
0.83$ -3.05 0.96$ 5.57 1.05$ 13.51 1.13$ 25.55 01/1995
12/1995
1.25$ -1.61 26.07%
2Y -10.33 11/2020
10/2022
0.80$ 0.66 1.01$ 5.57 1.11$ 10.52 1.22$ 15.68 10/1996
09/1998
1.33$ -8.20 11.87%
3Y -7.79 11/2020
10/2023
0.78$ 1.66 1.05$ 5.89 1.18$ 8.96 1.29$ 13.00 06/2000
05/2003
1.44$ -6.52 7.38%
5Y -0.75 11/2017
10/2022
0.96$ 2.19 1.11$ 5.79 1.32$ 8.32 1.49$ 9.80 02/2000
01/2005
1.59$ 0.01 1.66%
7Y -1.15 11/2016
10/2023
0.92$ 2.81 1.21$ 6.13 1.51$ 7.69 1.67$ 10.08 11/1994
10/2001
1.95$ 0.10 2.89%
10Y 0.38 11/2012
10/2022
1.03$ 3.64 1.43$ 5.93 1.77$ 7.33 2.02$ 9.01 11/1994
10/2004
2.36$ 0.99 0.00%
15Y 2.09 12/2008
11/2023
1.36$ 4.29 1.87$ 5.81 2.33$ 7.33 2.88$ 7.94 12/1994
11/2009
3.14$ 2.09 0.00%
20Y 2.99 11/2003
10/2023
1.80$ 4.20 2.27$ 5.76 3.06$ 6.60 3.58$ 7.27 02/1995
01/2015
4.06$ 3.22 0.00%
30Y 4.59 12/1993
11/2023
3.84$ 4.59 3.84$ 4.59 3.84$ 4.59 3.84$ 4.59 12/1993
11/2023
3.84$ 4.59 0.00%
Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods
Swipe left to see all data
Rolling
Period
Worst Period
15th Percentile
50th Percentile
85th Percentile
Best Period
Latest Negative
Periods
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
1Y -22.45 11/2021
10/2022
0.77$ -5.53 0.94$ 3.59 1.03$ 11.00 1.10$ 22.44 01/1995
12/1995
1.22$ -4.79 34.10%
2Y -16.18 11/2020
10/2022
0.70$ -1.36 0.97$ 3.50 1.07$ 8.20 1.17$ 13.61 10/1996
09/1998
1.29$ -12.75 27.00%
3Y -12.78 11/2020
10/2023
0.66$ -0.16 0.99$ 3.38 1.10$ 6.65 1.21$ 10.49 06/2000
05/2003
1.34$ -11.59 15.69%
5Y -4.44 11/2018
10/2023
0.79$ 0.29 1.01$ 3.30 1.17$ 5.80 1.32$ 7.50 07/2007
06/2012
1.43$ -3.90 10.96%
7Y -4.50 11/2016
10/2023
0.72$ 0.98 1.07$ 3.79 1.29$ 5.29 1.43$ 7.39 11/1994
10/2001
1.64$ -3.32 9.03%
10Y -2.28 11/2013
10/2023
0.79$ 1.80 1.19$ 3.72 1.44$ 4.73 1.58$ 6.38 11/1994
10/2004
1.85$ -1.78 8.71%
15Y -0.40 12/2008
11/2023
0.94$ 2.13 1.37$ 3.47 1.66$ 4.81 2.02$ 5.32 12/1994
11/2009
2.17$ -0.40 1.10%
20Y 0.41 11/2003
10/2023
1.08$ 1.63 1.38$ 3.54 2.00$ 4.35 2.34$ 4.93 02/1995
01/2015
2.61$ 0.62 0.00%
30Y 2.02 12/1993
11/2023
1.82$ 2.02 1.82$ 2.02 1.82$ 2.02 1.82$ 2.02 12/1993
11/2023
1.82$ 2.02 0.00%
Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods
Swipe left to see all data
Rolling
Period
Worst Period
15th Percentile
50th Percentile
85th Percentile
Best Period
Latest Negative
Periods
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
1Y -16.44 11/2021
10/2022
0.83$ -0.74 0.99$ 3.91 1.03$ 9.78 1.09$ 44.35 04/1985
03/1986
1.44$ -1.61 18.75%
2Y -10.33 11/2020
10/2022
0.80$ 0.79 1.01$ 3.71 1.07$ 8.81 1.18$ 34.91 07/1984
06/1986
1.82$ -8.20 9.82%
3Y -7.79 11/2020
10/2023
0.78$ 1.29 1.03$ 3.86 1.12$ 8.13 1.26$ 23.66 09/1983
08/1986
1.89$ -6.52 6.06%
5Y -0.75 11/2017
10/2022
0.96$ 1.58 1.08$ 4.15 1.22$ 7.55 1.43$ 23.75 09/1981
08/1986
2.90$ 0.01 0.90%
7Y -1.15 11/2016
10/2023
0.92$ 1.80 1.13$ 4.07 1.32$ 7.24 1.63$ 17.44 03/1980
02/1987
3.08$ 0.10 0.46%
10Y 0.37 10/1949
09/1959
1.03$ 2.03 1.22$ 4.19 1.50$ 7.43 2.04$ 15.70 10/1981
09/1991
4.29$ 0.99 0.00%
15Y 0.98 02/1945
01/1960
1.15$ 2.14 1.37$ 4.04 1.81$ 7.94 3.14$ 13.03 10/1981
09/1996
6.28$ 2.09 0.00%
20Y 1.54 01/1940
12/1959
1.35$ 2.41 1.61$ 3.95 2.16$ 8.06 4.71$ 12.08 10/1981
09/2001
9.77$ 3.22 0.00%
30Y 1.94 01/1940
12/1969
1.77$ 2.67 2.20$ 3.83 3.08$ 8.17 10.54$ 10.36 10/1981
09/2011
19.26$ 4.59 0.00%
Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods
Swipe left to see all data
Rolling
Period
Worst Period
15th Percentile
50th Percentile
85th Percentile
Best Period
Latest Negative
Periods
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
1Y -22.45 11/2021
10/2022
0.77$ -5.94 0.94$ 2.31 1.02$ 11.19 1.11$ 41.16 04/1985
03/1986
1.41$ -4.79 37.01%
2Y -16.18 11/2020
10/2022
0.70$ -3.25 0.93$ 2.56 1.05$ 9.02 1.18$ 31.29 07/1984
06/1986
1.72$ -12.75 31.95%
3Y -13.92 02/1917
01/1920
0.63$ -2.32 0.93$ 2.45 1.07$ 8.08 1.26$ 19.98 09/1983
08/1986
1.72$ -11.59 28.72%
5Y -12.17 07/1915
06/1920
0.52$ -1.95 0.90$ 2.51 1.13$ 7.34 1.42$ 19.55 09/1981
08/1986
2.44$ -3.90 30.69%
7Y -8.73 06/1913
05/1920
0.52$ -1.77 0.88$ 2.48 1.18$ 7.28 1.63$ 13.11 10/1981
09/1988
2.36$ -3.32 29.00%
10Y -5.69 10/1971
09/1981
0.55$ -1.59 0.85$ 2.54 1.28$ 6.68 1.90$ 11.31 10/1981
09/1991
2.91$ -1.78 32.40%
15Y -4.52 07/1905
06/1920
0.49$ -1.17 0.83$ 2.36 1.41$ 6.02 2.40$ 9.13 10/1981
09/1996
3.71$ -0.40 28.14%
20Y -3.10 07/1900
06/1920
0.53$ -0.91 0.83$ 2.22 1.55$ 5.50 2.91$ 8.50 10/1981
09/2001
5.11$ 0.62 27.57%
30Y -1.47 09/1951
08/1981
0.64$ -0.32 0.90$ 1.96 1.79$ 4.36 3.59$ 7.14 10/1981
09/2011
7.91$ 2.02 19.72%
Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods

If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the 10-year Treasury Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.

Seasonality

In which months is it better to invest in 10-year Treasury Portfolio?

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.
For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Gain Frequency
0.90
60%
-0.70
20%
0.73
60%
-0.53
60%
0.60
80%
0.03
60%
1.04
80%
-0.41
20%
-2.07
20%
-1.00
20%
1.78
80%
-0.08
20%
Best 3.6
2023
3.0
2020
3.7
2023
1.0
2021
3.0
2019
1.2
2019
3.0
2022
3.9
2019
0.3
2020
0.2
2019
4.6
2023
2.8
2018
Worst -2.1
2022
-3.3
2023
-4.1
2022
-4.2
2022
-1.4
2023
-1.3
2023
-0.7
2023
-3.9
2022
-4.7
2022
-1.9
2023
-0.7
2019
-1.5
2022
Monthly Seasonality over the period Feb 1871 - Nov 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Gain Frequency
1.33
70%
-0.43
40%
0.51
60%
-0.29
50%
0.61
70%
0.11
50%
0.66
70%
0.14
50%
-1.22
30%
-0.61
20%
0.66
60%
-0.27
30%
Best 4.3
2015
3.0
2020
3.7
2023
1.1
2017
3.0
2019
3.1
2016
3.0
2022
3.9
2019
1.6
2015
1.5
2014
4.6
2023
2.8
2018
Worst -2.2
2018
-3.3
2023
-4.1
2022
-4.2
2022
-1.4
2023
-1.6
2015
-0.7
2023
-3.9
2022
-4.7
2022
-1.9
2023
-4.2
2016
-2.1
2013
Monthly Seasonality over the period Feb 1871 - Nov 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Gain Frequency
0.27
66%
0.38
68%
0.37
68%
0.22
64%
0.46
67%
0.46
68%
0.15
60%
0.35
61%
0.41
65%
0.41
61%
0.66
72%
0.45
66%
Best 5.7
1968
7.2
1986
5.8
1986
12.4
1980
7.9
1985
5.6
1986
6.3
1984
6.0
1982
7.3
1982
7.6
1981
9.4
1981
5.4
1991
Worst -3.9
1980
-7.9
1980
-4.1
2022
-4.6
1970
-4.7
1984
-2.7
1967
-5.0
2003
-3.9
2022
-4.7
2022
-7.0
1979
-4.2
2016
-4.4
2009
Monthly Seasonality over the period Feb 1871 - Nov 2023

Monthly Returns

This section provides a visual/tabular representation of the performance variability in the 10-year Treasury Portfolio over time. It illustrates the distribution of monthly returns, showcasing the range and frequency of positive and negative returns.

10-YEAR TREASURY PORTFOLIO
Monthly Returns Distribution
Data Source: 1 December 1993 - 30 November 2023 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 30 November 2023 (~153 years)
202 Positive Months (56%) - 158 Negative Months (44%)
1207 Positive Months (66%) - 628 Negative Months (34%)
Swipe left to see all data
(Scroll down to see all data)
Investment Returns, up to December 2002, are simulated.
They have been derived using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.

In particular, the series derived from equivalent datasets are:
  • IEF - iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond, up to December 2002

Portfolio efficiency

The following portfolios granted a higher return over 30 Years and a less severe drawdown at the same time.

Swipe left to see all data
30 Years Stats (%)
% Allocation
Portfolio Author Return Dev.Std Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm
Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Momentum +7.75 6.99 -21.11 40 60 0
Golden Butterfly Tyler +7.46 7.68 -17.79 40 40 20
All Weather Portfolio Ray Dalio +7.19 7.39 -20.58 30 55 15
Stocks/Bonds 40/60 +6.83 6.98 -19.17 40 60 0
Simplified Permanent Portfolio +6.75 6.88 -16.43 25 50 25
Zefiro Portfolio Zefiro SCF +6.52 7.48 -20.61 20 50 30
Edge Select Moderately Conservative Merrill Lynch +6.49 6.86 -20.48 37 63 0
Desert Portfolio Gyroscopic Investing +6.48 5.50 -14.72 30 60 10
Permanent Portfolio Harry Browne +6.37 6.58 -15.92 25 50 25
Lifepath Fund iShares +6.37 7.00 -21.23 40.4 59.6 0
LifeStrategy Conservative Growth Vanguard +6.23 6.89 -21.90 40 60 0
Sheltered Sam 40/60 Bill Bernstein +6.18 6.47 -22.05 38.8 60 1.2
Paul Boyer Portfolio Paul Boyer +6.05 7.50 -18.04 25 50 25
Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Momentum +6.01 4.94 -17.91 20 80 0
Larry Portfolio Larry Swedroe +5.81 5.57 -15.96 30 70 0
All Country World 20/80 +5.64 5.63 -17.97 20 80 0
Sheltered Sam 30/70 Bill Bernstein +5.62 5.22 -16.58 29.1 70 0.9
Stocks/Bonds 20/80 +5.54 4.90 -16.57 20 80 0
Dimensional Retirement Income Fund DFA +5.36 4.79 -12.91 20.4 79.6 0
LifeStrategy Income Fund Vanguard +5.33 4.77 -16.61 20 80 0
Eliminate Fat Tails Larry Swedroe +5.30 6.36 -18.42 30 70 0
Edge Select Conservative Merrill Lynch +5.12 4.26 -12.44 21 79 0
All Country World Bonds +5.11 4.61 -17.60 0 100 0
Developed World ex-US 20/80 +5.08 5.26 -16.80 20 80 0
Sheltered Sam 20/80 Bill Bernstein +5.04 4.14 -11.24 19.4 80 0.6
Robo Advisor 20 Betterment +5.01 4.18 -12.16 19.9 80.1 0
US Inflation Protection +4.90 6.05 -14.76 0 100 0
Total Bond Developed World ex-US +4.69 4.57 -14.88 0 100 0
10-year Treasury +4.59 6.81 -23.18 0 100 0

Here's a list containing the Best Classic Portfolios, with the highest returns over 30 Years and Low Risk categorization.

Swipe left to see all data
30 Years Stats (%)
% Allocation
Portfolio Author Return Dev.Std Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm
High Yield Bonds Income +6.42 8.80 -23.97 0 100 0
Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Momentum +6.01 4.94 -17.91 20 80 0
All Country World 20/80 +5.64 5.63 -17.97 20 80 0
Stocks/Bonds 20/80 +5.54 4.90 -16.57 20 80 0
Dimensional Retirement Income Fund DFA +5.36 4.79 -12.91 20.4 79.6 0
Analyze your Portfolio: Backtest Now!
Explore historical data since 1871 and fine-tune your investment strategy for better results.