Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio vs Marvin Appel One-Decision Portfolio Portfolio Comparison

Simulation Settings
Period: January 1928 - April 2025 (~97 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 30 April 2025
Rebalancing: at every Jan 1st
Currency: USD
Inflation: US
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Results
30 Years
All (since January 1928)
Inflation Adjusted:
Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio
1.00$
Initial Capital
May 1995
7.38$
Final Capital
April 2025
6.89%
Yearly Return
6.66%
Std Deviation
-15.92%
Max Drawdown
27months
Recovery Period
1.00$
Initial Capital
May 1995
3.50$
Final Capital
April 2025
4.27%
Yearly Return
6.66%
Std Deviation
-23.09%
Max Drawdown
57months*
Recovery Period
* in progress
1.00$
Initial Capital
January 1928
514.64$
Final Capital
April 2025
6.62%
Yearly Return
6.87%
Std Deviation
-30.61%
Max Drawdown
46months
Recovery Period
1.00$
Initial Capital
January 1928
27.86$
Final Capital
April 2025
3.48%
Yearly Return
6.87%
Std Deviation
-24.75%
Max Drawdown
114months
Recovery Period
Marvin Appel One-Decision Portfolio
1.00$
Initial Capital
May 1995
7.82$
Final Capital
April 2025
7.09%
Yearly Return
8.51%
Std Deviation
-31.96%
Max Drawdown
41months
Recovery Period
1.00$
Initial Capital
May 1995
3.71$
Final Capital
April 2025
4.47%
Yearly Return
8.51%
Std Deviation
-33.86%
Max Drawdown
47months
Recovery Period
1.00$
Initial Capital
January 1928
890.39$
Final Capital
April 2025
7.23%
Yearly Return
9.38%
Std Deviation
-47.77%
Max Drawdown
83months
Recovery Period
1.00$
Initial Capital
January 1928
48.20$
Final Capital
April 2025
4.06%
Yearly Return
9.38%
Std Deviation
-34.04%
Max Drawdown
45months
Recovery Period

As of April 2025, in the previous 30 Years, the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio obtained a 6.89% compound annual return, with a 6.66% standard deviation. It suffered a maximum drawdown of -15.92% that required 27 months to be recovered.

As of April 2025, in the previous 30 Years, the Marvin Appel One-Decision Portfolio obtained a 7.09% compound annual return, with a 8.51% standard deviation. It suffered a maximum drawdown of -31.96% that required 41 months to be recovered.

Disclaimer: The simulations on this website are provided in good faith but should NOT be taken as investment advice. We are not liable for any errors or actions based on this information. The authors of the website are not affiliated with the portfolio creators, who are the sole owners of their intellectual property. The translation of asset allocations into ETFs is based on the interpretation of LazyPortfolioETF.com and may not exactly reflect the original intent of the portfolio creators. Content is for informational, educational, illustrative, and entertainment purposes only.
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Asset Allocations and ETFs

The compared portfolios have the following asset allocations.

Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio
Weight
(%)		 Ticker Name
25.00
VTI
Vanguard Total Stock Market
25.00
BIL
SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill
25.00
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond
25.00
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust
Marvin Appel One-Decision Portfolio
Weight
(%)		 Ticker Name
20.00
SPY
SPDR S&P 500
20.00
VNQ
Vanguard Real Estate
10.00
IJS
iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value
30.00
BIL
SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill
20.00
LQD
iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond
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Portfolio Returns as of Apr 30, 2025

Returns are calculated in USD, assuming:
  • no fees or capital gain taxes.
  • rebalancing: at every Jan 1st.
  • dividend reinvestment, when applicable.
RETURN COMPARISON
Period: 1 January 1928 - 30 April 2025 (~97 years)
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Return (%) as of Apr 30, 2025
YTD
(4M) 		1M 6M 1Y 5Y 10Y 30Y MAX
(~97Y)
//www.lazyportfolioetf.com/wp-content/themes/dynamico-child/img/author/avatar_harry_browne.webp Permanent Portfolio
Harry Browne 		6.20 1.11 4.94 16.56 5.73 6.08 6.89 6.62
//www.lazyportfolioetf.com/wp-content/themes/dynamico-child/img/author/avatar_marvin_appel.webp One-Decision Portfolio
Marvin Appel 		-1.65 -1.15 -1.45 8.32 6.71 5.46 7.09 7.23
Return over 1 year are annualized.
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Capital Growth as of Apr 30, 2025

Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio: an investment of 1$, since May 1995, now would be worth 7.38$, with a total return of 638.15% (6.89% annualized).

Marvin Appel One-Decision Portfolio: an investment of 1$, since May 1995, now would be worth 7.82$, with a total return of 681.72% (7.09% annualized).


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Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio: an investment of 1$, since January 1928, now would be worth 514.64$, with a total return of 51363.51% (6.62% annualized).

Marvin Appel One-Decision Portfolio: an investment of 1$, since January 1928, now would be worth 890.39$, with a total return of 88939.21% (7.23% annualized).


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Portfolio Metrics as of Apr 30, 2025

The following metrics, updated as of 30 April 2025, provide an overview of performance and risk, with the best value in each row highlighted within the table.

METRIC COMPARISON
Period: 1 May 2024 - 30 April 2025 (1 year)
Period: 1 May 2020 - 30 April 2025 (5 years)
Period: 1 May 2015 - 30 April 2025 (10 years)
Period: 1 May 1995 - 30 April 2025 (30 years)
Period: 1 January 1928 - 30 April 2025 (~97 years)
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Permanent Portfolio One-Decision Portfolio
Author Harry Browne Marvin Appel
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks 25% 50%
Fixed Income 50% 50%
Commodities 25% 0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%) 16.56 8.32
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) 14.19 6.12
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -2.51 -4.94
Start to Recovery (months) 2 5*
Longest Drawdown Depth (%) -0.13 -4.94
Start to Recovery (months) 2 5*
Longest Negative Period (months) 3 8*
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%) 4.90 7.63
Sharpe Ratio 2.40 0.46
Sortino Ratio 2.87 0.61
Ulcer Index 0.70 2.15
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 3.38 1.09
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 6.59 1.68
Metrics calculated over the period 1 May 2024 - 30 April 2025
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Permanent Portfolio One-Decision Portfolio
Author Harry Browne Marvin Appel
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks 25% 50%
Fixed Income 50% 50%
Commodities 25% 0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%) 5.73 6.71
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) 1.14 2.08
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -15.92 -16.74
Start to Recovery (months) 27 31
Longest Drawdown Depth (%) -15.92 -16.74
Start to Recovery (months) 27 31
Longest Negative Period (months) 40 32
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%) 8.43 10.03
Sharpe Ratio 0.38 0.42
Sortino Ratio 0.52 0.57
Ulcer Index 5.91 6.34
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 0.68 0.67
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 0.36 0.40
Metrics calculated over the period 1 May 2020 - 30 April 2025
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Permanent Portfolio One-Decision Portfolio
Author Harry Browne Marvin Appel
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks 25% 50%
Fixed Income 50% 50%
Commodities 25% 0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%) 6.08 5.46
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) 2.92 2.32
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -15.92 -16.74
Start to Recovery (months) 27 31
Longest Drawdown Depth (%) -15.92 -16.74
Start to Recovery (months) 27 31
Longest Negative Period (months) 40 32
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%) 7.28 9.18
Sharpe Ratio 0.60 0.40
Sortino Ratio 0.85 0.54
Ulcer Index 4.48 4.92
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 0.84 0.59
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 0.38 0.33
Metrics calculated over the period 1 May 2015 - 30 April 2025
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Permanent Portfolio One-Decision Portfolio
Author Harry Browne Marvin Appel
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks 25% 50%
Fixed Income 50% 50%
Commodities 25% 0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%) 6.89 7.09
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) 4.27 4.47
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -15.92 -31.96
Start to Recovery (months) 27 41
Longest Drawdown Depth (%) -15.92 -31.96
Start to Recovery (months) 27 41
Longest Negative Period (months) 40 64
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%) 6.66 8.51
Sharpe Ratio 0.69 0.57
Sortino Ratio 0.96 0.73
Ulcer Index 3.20 5.55
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 1.03 0.83
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 0.43 0.22
Metrics calculated over the period 1 May 1995 - 30 April 2025
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Permanent Portfolio One-Decision Portfolio
Author Harry Browne Marvin Appel
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks 25% 50%
Fixed Income 50% 50%
Commodities 25% 0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%) 6.62 7.23
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) 3.48 4.06
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -30.61 -47.77
Start to Recovery (months) 46 83
Longest Drawdown Depth (%) -14.17 -47.77
Start to Recovery (months) 53 83
Longest Negative Period (months) 68 154
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%) 6.87 9.38
Sharpe Ratio 0.48 0.41
Sortino Ratio 0.71 0.57
Ulcer Index 4.27 7.69
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 0.96 0.77
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 0.22 0.15
Metrics calculated over the period 1 January 1928 - 30 April 2025
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Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

DRAWDOWN COMPARISON
Period: 1 May 1995 - 30 April 2025 (30 years)
Period: 1 January 1928 - 30 April 2025 (~97 years)

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Permanent Portfolio One-Decision Portfolio
Drawdown
(%) 		Recovery
(#Months)		 From
To		 Drawdown
(%) 		Recovery
(#Months)		 From
To
-31.96 41 Jun 2007
Oct 2010
-16.74 31 Jan 2022
Jul 2024
-15.92 27 Jan 2022
Mar 2024
-13.04 10 Feb 2020
Nov 2020
-12.63 18 Mar 2008
Aug 2009
-8.52 8 Jun 2011
Jan 2012
-8.13 6 Jul 1998
Dec 1998
-7.23 14 Apr 2002
May 2003
-6.99 7 Sep 2018
Mar 2019
-6.98 13 Aug 2016
Aug 2017
-6.86 17 Oct 2012
Feb 2014
-6.73 15 Feb 2015
Apr 2016
-5.43 19 Sep 2000
Mar 2002
-5.34 4 Jul 1998
Oct 1998
-4.94 5* Dec 2024
In progress

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Permanent Portfolio One-Decision Portfolio
Drawdown
(%) 		Recovery
(#Months)		 From
To		 Drawdown
(%) 		Recovery
(#Months)		 From
To
-47.77 83 Sep 1929
Jul 1936
-31.96 41 Jun 2007
Oct 2010
-30.61 46 Sep 1929
Jun 1933
-23.43 66 Aug 1937
Jan 1943
-18.44 31 Dec 1972
Jun 1975
-16.74 31 Jan 2022
Jul 2024
-15.92 27 Jan 2022
Mar 2024
-14.17 53 Mar 1937
Jul 1941
-13.04 10 Feb 2020
Nov 2020
-12.63 18 Mar 2008
Aug 2009
-12.38 13 Sep 1987
Sep 1988
-11.68 21 Dec 1980
Aug 1982
-11.38 5 Feb 1980
Jun 1980
-11.15 10 Apr 1974
Jan 1975
-10.91 21 May 1969
Jan 1971

Rolling Returns

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the Simulation Settings.

You can explore the Rolling Returns for a single portfolio, or check the return differential, by switching on "Head To Head" toggle.

Rolling Returns Comparison
Annualized Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 January 1928 - 30 April 2025 (~97 years)


Head To Head (Ptf 1 vs Ptf 2):
US Inflation Adjusted:

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Yearly Returns

For each year, the following table provides the return and intra-year drawdown. The highlighted returns represent the highest values for that specific year.

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Permanent Portfolio One-Decision Portfolio
Year Return
(%)		 Drawdown
(%)		 Return
(%)		 Drawdown
(%)
2025
 6.20 0.00 -1.65 -3.37
2024
 11.90 -2.51 8.40 -3.55
2023
 11.55 -5.68 12.43 -7.22
2022
 -12.53 -15.92 -13.18 -16.74
2021
 4.21 -4.43 16.51 -2.73
2020
 16.10 -3.30 5.32 -13.04
2019
 16.17 -1.10 18.51 -2.02
2018
 -1.76 -4.25 -3.64 -6.99
2017
 10.97 -0.83 8.07 -0.59
2016
 5.54 -6.98 8.52 -3.21
2015
 -3.06 -6.73 -0.25 -4.76
2014
 9.40 -2.62 11.14 -2.54
2013
 -2.08 -6.04 10.43 -2.72
2012
 6.41 -1.83 10.65 -2.81
2011
 11.11 -1.85 3.87 -8.52
2010
 13.92 -0.53 13.01 -6.14
2009
 7.85 -6.22 15.30 -14.35
2008
 0.87 -12.63 -16.74 -22.59
2007
 12.69 -1.20 -0.68 -5.17
2006
 10.94 -2.12 14.45 -1.98
2005
 8.91 -1.25 5.08 -2.36
2004
 6.83 -4.20 12.05 -4.65
2003
 13.32 -2.34 18.87 -1.57
2002
 5.85 -4.02 -2.42 -7.23
2001
 -0.52 -4.13 4.32 -3.58
2000
 2.40 -3.23 9.42 -2.13
1999
 5.17 -3.54 4.70 -3.16
1998
 10.09 -5.34 5.32 -8.13
1997
 7.19 -2.33 17.36 -1.24
1996
 5.08 -2.02 15.52 -1.31
1995
 18.11 0.00 19.02 -0.66
1994
 -1.37 -3.63 -1.28 -5.02
1993
 12.00 -0.99 11.41 -1.82
1992
 3.57 -1.77 9.68 -0.89
1991
 11.72 -0.88 23.01 -1.99
1990
 1.11 -4.53 -1.89 -7.50
1989
 12.90 -1.18 15.28 -0.97
1988
 4.39 -1.50 12.57 -1.14
1987
 7.42 -5.78 2.00 -12.38
1986
 17.64 -1.28 13.98 -2.95
1985
 20.47 -2.05 20.92 -1.32
1984
 2.22 -3.58 12.26 -2.55
1983
 3.46 -2.83 19.12 -1.46
1982
 23.27 -5.51 23.18 -1.47
1981
 -5.34 -9.88 6.73 -5.61
1980
 13.65 -11.38 17.14 -6.77
1979
 39.77 -4.50 17.24 -6.81
1978
 12.78 -5.31 7.38 -5.77
1977
 6.43 -2.00 6.67 -0.92
1976
 11.22 -2.75 25.20 -1.17
1975
 6.98 -7.00 21.70 -5.67
1974
 12.43 -11.15 -10.56 -15.06
1973
 15.65 -6.85 -6.39 -6.65
1972
 18.84 -1.56 8.28 -1.29
1971
 12.86 -1.09 8.61 -4.84
1970
 7.89 -4.68 8.28 -8.62
1969
 -6.38 -8.20 -0.95 -4.58
1968
 9.27 -1.10 8.59 -2.35
1967
 6.11 -1.37 11.78 -2.65
1966
 -0.04 -3.86 -0.03 -6.32
1965
 4.59 -0.95 7.42 -2.29
1964
 6.00 -0.25 7.72 -0.79
1963
 6.05 -0.74 8.66 -1.64
1962
 -0.23 -4.93 -0.86 -9.52
1961
 6.50 -1.00 9.51 -1.97
1960
 5.64 -1.14 3.46 -3.30
1959
 2.72 -1.85 4.93 -3.33
1958
 9.97 -0.31 15.16 -1.24
1957
 0.57 -2.86 -0.23 -5.65
1956
 1.35 -2.43 2.65 -4.39
1955
 6.24 -0.67 8.77 -2.41
1954
 14.12 -0.94 17.75 -2.51
1953
 -0.87 -4.16 3.01 -2.68
1952
 3.37 -1.26 6.69 -2.02
1951
 4.37 -1.85 7.69 -3.72
1950
 7.47 -1.53 12.10 -3.16
1949
 6.13 -1.15 6.86 -3.12
1948
 1.16 -2.70 2.07 -5.48
1947
 3.61 -1.52 5.70 -1.97
1946
 -0.66 -5.77 2.54 -8.87
1945
 12.40 -0.87 17.56 -2.23
1944
 5.95 -0.36 12.01 -0.72
1943
 8.33 -2.35 13.73 -4.78
1942
 5.04 -3.00 7.74 -6.44
1941
 -1.49 -3.80 -3.99 -6.60
1940
 -0.01 -6.09 -0.89 -11.63
1939
 1.75 -3.29 -0.68 -7.87
1938
 8.45 -6.59 10.93 -13.41
1937
 -8.65 -10.20 -10.52 -14.62
1936
 10.39 -1.85 13.90 -4.16
1935
 12.79 -1.85 16.78 -6.35
1934
 5.72 -3.27 2.19 -8.93
1933
 28.60 -5.74 21.91 -12.56
1932
 2.17 -10.03 -1.37 -21.80
1931
 -12.64 -16.23 -15.40 -23.17
1930
 -4.39 -9.07 -6.85 -15.85
1929
 -0.83 -9.26 -2.21 -17.97
1928
 10.25 -1.14 12.69 -2.87
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