Consolidated Returns as of 31 May 2023
Live Update: Jun 02 2023
The Marvin Appel One-Decision Portfolio is a Medium Risk portfolio and can be implemented with 5 ETFs.
It's exposed for 50% on the Stock Market.
In the last 30 Years, the Marvin Appel One-Decision Portfolio obtained a 6.84% compound annual return, with a 8.25% standard deviation.
Asset Allocation and ETFs
The Marvin Appel One-Decision Portfolio has the following asset allocation:
The Marvin Appel One-Decision Portfolio can be implemented with the following ETFs:
Weight (%) | Ticker | ETF Name | Investment Themes |
---|---|---|---|
20.00 |
SPY
|
SPDR S&P 500 | Equity, U.S., Large Cap |
20.00 |
VNQ
|
Vanguard Real Estate | Real Estate, U.S. |
10.00 |
IJS
|
iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value | Equity, U.S., Small Cap, Value |
30.00 |
BIL
|
SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill | Bond, U.S., Ultra Short-Term |
20.00 |
LQD
|
iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond | Bond, U.S., All-Term |
Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.
Portfolio and ETF Returns as of May 31, 2023
The Marvin Appel One-Decision Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.
- No fees or capital gain taxes
- a rebalancing of the components at the beginning of each year (at every January 1st). How do returns change with different rebalancing strategies?
- the reinvestment of dividends
Chg (%) | Return (%) | Return (%) as of May 31, 2023 | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 Day | Time ET(*) | Jun 2023 | 1M | 6M | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | 30Y |
MAX
(~95Y) |
||
Marvin Appel One-Decision Portfolio | 1.17 | 1.53 | -1.28 | -0.50 | -2.78 | 4.58 | 5.37 | 6.84 | 7.20 | ||
US Inflation Adjusted return | -1.28 | -2.35 | -6.32 | 0.74 | 2.62 | 4.23 | 4.03 | ||||
Components | |||||||||||
SPY
|
SPDR S&P 500 | 1.45 | Jun 02 2023 | 2.41 | 0.46 | 3.37 | 2.92 | 10.94 | 11.90 | 9.71 | 9.02 |
VNQ
|
Vanguard Real Estate | 2.44 | Jun 02 2023 | 2.45 | -3.96 | -6.98 | -15.87 | 4.07 | 5.34 | 8.35 | 6.94 |
IJS
|
iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value | 4.49 | Jun 02 2023 | 5.32 | -3.66 | -9.53 | -8.86 | 3.20 | 8.10 | 10.13 | 12.72 |
BIL
|
SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill | 0.01 | Jun 02 2023 | 0.07 | 0.38 | 2.15 | 3.16 | 1.33 | 0.77 | 2.20 | 3.99 |
LQD
|
iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond | -0.27 | Jun 02 2023 | 0.04 | -1.76 | 1.82 | -2.52 | 1.68 | 2.34 | 5.20 | 4.63 |
In 2022, the Marvin Appel One-Decision Portfolio granted a 1.90% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Marvin Appel One-Decision Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.
Portfolio Metrics as of May 31, 2023
Metrics of Marvin Appel One-Decision Portfolio, updated as of 31 May 2023.
- No fees or capital gain taxes
- a rebalancing of the components at the beginning of each year (at every January 1st). How do returns change with different rebalancing strategies?
- the reinvestment of dividends
Metrics as of May 31, 2023 | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | 20Y | 30Y |
MAX
(~95Y) |
|
Portfolio Return (%) | -1.28 | -0.42 | -0.50 | -2.78 | 5.05 | 4.58 | 5.37 | 6.18 | 6.84 | 7.20 |
US Inflation (%) | 0.00 | 0.84 | 1.90 | 3.79 | 5.77 | 3.81 | 2.68 | 2.55 | 2.51 | 3.05 |
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) | -1.28 | -1.25 | -2.35 | -6.32 | -0.68 | 0.74 | 2.62 | 3.55 | 4.23 | 4.03 |
Waiting for updates, inflation of May 2023 is temporarily set to 0%. Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized. | ||||||||||
RISK INDICATORS | ||||||||||
Standard Deviation (%) | 12.98 | 10.34 | 10.63 | 8.49 | 9.12 | 8.25 | 9.37 | |||
Sharpe Ratio | -0.46 | 0.39 | 0.31 | 0.54 | 0.55 | 0.56 | 0.34 | |||
Sortino Ratio | -0.67 | 0.53 | 0.40 | 0.71 | 0.70 | 0.72 | 0.47 | |||
MAXIMUM DRAWDOWN | ||||||||||
Drawdown Depth (%) | -9.12 | -16.74 | -16.74 | -16.74 | -31.96 | -31.96 | -47.77 | |||
Start (yyyy mm) | 2022 08 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 2007 06 | 2007 06 | 1929 09 | |||
Bottom (yyyy mm) | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2009 02 | 2009 02 | 1932 05 | |||
Start to Bottom (# months) | 2 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 21 | 21 | 33 | |||
Start to Recovery (# months) in progress |
6
|
> 17
|
> 17
|
> 17
|
41
|
41
|
83
|
|||
ROLLING PERIOD RETURNS - Annualized | ||||||||||
Best Return (%) | 60.03 | 22.71 | 20.24 | 15.47 | 13.00 | 11.95 | ||||
Worst Return (%) | -34.89 | -17.20 | -5.17 | -0.03 | 3.03 | 4.74 | ||||
% Positive Periods | 81% | 92% | 96% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||||
MONTHS | ||||||||||
Positive | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 22 | 40 | 84 | 167 | 252 | 755 |
Negative | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 20 | 36 | 73 | 108 | 390 |
% Positive | 0% | 67% | 50% | 50% | 61% | 67% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 66% |
WITHDRAWAL RATES (WR) | ||||||||||
Safe WR (%) | 36.75 | 22.03 | 12.58 | 7.68 | 6.77 | 3.67 | ||||
Perpetual WR (%) | 0.00 | 0.73 | 2.55 | 3.43 | 4.06 | 3.87 |
- Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio
- Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean
- Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return.
- Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation).
- Maximum Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.
- Rolling Returns: returns over a time frame (best, worst, % of positive returns).
- Pos./Neg. Months: number of months with positive/negative return.
- Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the original portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money (dollar amount withdrawal).
- Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year, while retaining the inflation adjusted portfolio balance (percentage withdrawal).
Portfolio Components Correlation
Correlation measures to what degree the returns of the two assets move in relation to each other.
If one variable goes up by a certain amount, the correlation coefficient indicates which way the other variable moves and by how much.
Asset correlations are calculated based on monthly returns.
Asset |
SPY
|
VNQ
|
IJS
|
BIL
|
LQD
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SPY
|
-
|
0.91
|
0.86
|
-0.03
|
0.82
|
VNQ
|
0.91
|
-
|
0.87
|
-0.10
|
0.88
|
IJS
|
0.86
|
0.87
|
-
|
-0.25
|
0.58
|
BIL
|
-0.03
|
-0.10
|
-0.25
|
-
|
0.13
|
LQD
|
0.82
|
0.88
|
0.58
|
0.13
|
-
|
Asset |
SPY
|
VNQ
|
IJS
|
BIL
|
LQD
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SPY
|
-
|
0.85
|
0.85
|
-0.16
|
0.63
|
VNQ
|
0.85
|
-
|
0.76
|
-0.21
|
0.65
|
IJS
|
0.85
|
0.76
|
-
|
-0.29
|
0.44
|
BIL
|
-0.16
|
-0.21
|
-0.29
|
-
|
0.05
|
LQD
|
0.63
|
0.65
|
0.44
|
0.05
|
-
|
Asset |
SPY
|
VNQ
|
IJS
|
BIL
|
LQD
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SPY
|
-
|
0.72
|
0.82
|
-0.12
|
0.55
|
VNQ
|
0.72
|
-
|
0.65
|
-0.16
|
0.66
|
IJS
|
0.82
|
0.65
|
-
|
-0.23
|
0.36
|
BIL
|
-0.12
|
-0.16
|
-0.23
|
-
|
0.03
|
LQD
|
0.55
|
0.66
|
0.36
|
0.03
|
-
|
Asset |
SPY
|
VNQ
|
IJS
|
BIL
|
LQD
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SPY
|
-
|
0.60
|
0.81
|
-0.02
|
0.32
|
VNQ
|
0.60
|
-
|
0.68
|
-0.02
|
0.42
|
IJS
|
0.81
|
0.68
|
-
|
-0.04
|
0.23
|
BIL
|
-0.02
|
-0.02
|
-0.04
|
-
|
0.00
|
LQD
|
0.32
|
0.42
|
0.23
|
0.00
|
-
|
Asset |
SPY
|
VNQ
|
IJS
|
BIL
|
LQD
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SPY
|
-
|
0.82
|
0.92
|
-0.03
|
0.19
|
VNQ
|
0.82
|
-
|
0.83
|
0.00
|
0.22
|
IJS
|
0.92
|
0.83
|
-
|
-0.03
|
0.17
|
BIL
|
-0.03
|
0.00
|
-0.03
|
-
|
0.10
|
LQD
|
0.19
|
0.22
|
0.17
|
0.10
|
-
|
If you want to learn more about historical correlations, you can find out here how the main asset class are correlated to each other.
Capital Growth as of May 31, 2023
The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 3462.03$, with a net total return of 246.20% (4.23% annualized).
The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 43386.66$, with a net total return of 4238.67% (4.03% annualized).
Drawdowns
A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.
Drawdown period |
Recovery period |
Total |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Drawdown | Start | Bottom | #Months | End | #Months | #Months |
-31.96% | Jun 2007 | Feb 2009 | 21 | Oct 2010 | 20 | 41 |
-16.74% | Jan 2022 | Sep 2022 | 9 | in progress | 8 | 17 |
-13.04% | Feb 2020 | Mar 2020 | 2 | Nov 2020 | 8 | 10 |
-8.52% | Jun 2011 | Sep 2011 | 4 | Jan 2012 | 4 | 8 |
-8.13% | Jul 1998 | Aug 1998 | 2 | Dec 1998 | 4 | 6 |
-7.23% | Apr 2002 | Sep 2002 | 6 | May 2003 | 8 | 14 |
-6.99% | Sep 2018 | Dec 2018 | 4 | Mar 2019 | 3 | 7 |
-5.02% | Feb 1994 | Nov 1994 | 10 | Mar 1995 | 4 | 14 |
-4.76% | Apr 2015 | Sep 2015 | 6 | Mar 2016 | 6 | 12 |
-4.65% | Apr 2004 | Apr 2004 | 1 | Aug 2004 | 4 | 5 |
-3.58% | Aug 2001 | Sep 2001 | 2 | Dec 2001 | 3 | 5 |
-3.49% | Feb 2001 | Mar 2001 | 2 | Jun 2001 | 3 | 5 |
-3.21% | Aug 2016 | Oct 2016 | 3 | Jan 2017 | 3 | 6 |
-3.16% | Jul 1999 | Sep 1999 | 3 | Dec 1999 | 3 | 6 |
-3.06% | Feb 2018 | Feb 2018 | 1 | Jun 2018 | 4 | 5 |
-2.81% | May 2012 | May 2012 | 1 | Jul 2012 | 2 | 3 |
-2.73% | Sep 2021 | Sep 2021 | 1 | Oct 2021 | 1 | 2 |
-2.72% | May 2013 | Aug 2013 | 4 | Oct 2013 | 2 | 6 |
-2.54% | Sep 2014 | Sep 2014 | 1 | Oct 2014 | 1 | 2 |
-2.36% | Aug 2005 | Oct 2005 | 3 | Nov 2005 | 1 | 4 |
Drawdown period |
Recovery period |
Total |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Drawdown | Start | Bottom | #Months | End | #Months | #Months |
-47.77% | Sep 1929 | May 1932 | 33 | Jul 1936 | 50 | 83 |
-31.96% | Jun 2007 | Feb 2009 | 21 | Oct 2010 | 20 | 41 |
-23.43% | Aug 1937 | Mar 1938 | 8 | Jan 1943 | 58 | 66 |
-18.44% | Dec 1972 | Sep 1974 | 22 | Jun 1975 | 9 | 31 |
-16.74% | Jan 2022 | Sep 2022 | 9 | in progress | 8 | 17 |
-13.04% | Feb 2020 | Mar 2020 | 2 | Nov 2020 | 8 | 10 |
-12.38% | Sep 1987 | Nov 1987 | 3 | Sep 1988 | 10 | 13 |
-10.40% | Dec 1968 | Jun 1970 | 19 | Nov 1970 | 5 | 24 |
-9.56% | Dec 1961 | Jun 1962 | 7 | Jan 1963 | 7 | 14 |
-8.87% | Jun 1946 | Sep 1946 | 4 | Apr 1948 | 19 | 23 |
-8.52% | Jun 2011 | Sep 2011 | 4 | Jan 2012 | 4 | 8 |
-8.13% | Jul 1998 | Aug 1998 | 2 | Dec 1998 | 4 | 6 |
-7.50% | Jul 1990 | Oct 1990 | 4 | Jan 1991 | 3 | 7 |
-7.23% | Apr 2002 | Sep 2002 | 6 | May 2003 | 8 | 14 |
-6.99% | Sep 2018 | Dec 2018 | 4 | Mar 2019 | 3 | 7 |
-6.81% | Sep 1979 | Oct 1979 | 2 | Jan 1980 | 3 | 5 |
-6.77% | Feb 1980 | Mar 1980 | 2 | May 1980 | 2 | 4 |
-6.55% | Nov 1948 | May 1949 | 7 | Oct 1949 | 5 | 12 |
-6.32% | May 1966 | Aug 1966 | 4 | Jan 1967 | 5 | 9 |
-5.77% | Sep 1978 | Oct 1978 | 2 | Jan 1979 | 3 | 5 |
Rolling Returns ( more details)
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
Rolling Period |
Annualized Return (%) | Negative Periods |
|||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Average | Latest | Best | Worst | ||
1 Year |
7.68 | -2.78 |
60.03 Jul 1932 - Jun 1933 |
-34.89 Jul 1931 - Jun 1932 |
18.69% |
2 Years |
7.49 | -2.31 |
25.43 Mar 2009 - Feb 2011 |
-24.62 Jun 1930 - May 1932 |
9.54% |
3 Years |
7.45 | 5.05 |
22.71 Jul 1982 - Jun 1985 |
-17.20 Jul 1929 - Jun 1932 |
8.29% |
5 Years |
7.57 | 4.58 |
20.24 Aug 1982 - Jul 1987 |
-5.17 Apr 1928 - Mar 1933 |
4.05% |
7 Years |
7.66 | 4.99 |
18.16 Apr 1980 - Mar 1987 |
-0.37 Apr 1928 - Mar 1935 |
0.09% |
10 Years |
7.73 | 5.37 |
15.47 Jan 1975 - Dec 1984 |
-0.03 Sep 1929 - Aug 1939 |
0.10% |
15 Years |
7.88 | 5.41 |
14.71 Oct 1974 - Sep 1989 |
1.95 Sep 1929 - Aug 1944 |
0.00% |
20 Years |
8.04 | 6.18 |
13.00 Mar 1978 - Feb 1998 |
3.03 Sep 1929 - Aug 1949 |
0.00% |
30 Years |
8.25 | 6.84 |
11.95 Jan 1975 - Dec 2004 |
4.74 Oct 1929 - Sep 1959 |
0.00% |
If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Marvin Appel One-Decision Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.
Previous vs subsequent Returns
Considering all 10-year rolling periods, is there a relationship between past and future returns, at a given date?
In the following chart, we show how past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis) are related.
Neighboring data is aggregated and occurrences are indicated. It is possible to zoom by clicking or drawing the desired area
The annualized return of the last 10 years has been 5.37% (updated at May 31, 2023).
Seasonality
In which months is it better to invest in Marvin Appel One-Decision Portfolio?
For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Return (%) | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
Average Gain Frequency |
1.57
80% |
-0.92
40% |
-0.81
80% |
1.28
80% |
-0.15
40% |
0.50
80% |
2.26
100% |
0.40
80% |
-2.05
20% |
0.71
60% |
2.29
80% |
-0.03
60% |
Capital Growth on monthly avg returns | ||||||||||||
100
|
101.57
|
100.64
|
99.82
|
101.10
|
100.95
|
101.45
|
103.74
|
104.16
|
102.03
|
102.76
|
105.11
|
105.08
|
Best |
5.9 2019 |
1.9 2021 |
2.3 2021 |
6.0 2020 |
2.0 2020 |
3.2 2019 |
5.0 2022 |
1.6 2018 |
1.3 2019 |
3.5 2021 |
6.4 2020 |
3.7 2021 |
Worst |
-3.9 2022 |
-3.7 2020 |
-9.7 2020 |
-4.5 2022 |
-2.0 2019 |
-4.6 2022 |
0.9 2019 |
-3.1 2022 |
-6.2 2022 |
-3.5 2018 |
-1.0 2021 |
-4.3 2018 |
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Return (%) | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
Average Gain Frequency |
0.72
80% |
-0.22
60% |
0.13
80% |
0.67
80% |
0.35
70% |
0.37
70% |
1.75
90% |
-0.22
50% |
-0.97
30% |
1.14
70% |
1.57
90% |
0.29
70% |
Capital Growth on monthly avg returns | ||||||||||||
100
|
100.72
|
100.50
|
100.63
|
101.31
|
101.67
|
102.04
|
103.83
|
103.60
|
102.60
|
103.77
|
105.40
|
105.71
|
Best |
5.9 2019 |
2.6 2014 |
5.0 2016 |
6.0 2020 |
2.0 2020 |
3.2 2019 |
5.0 2022 |
2.3 2014 |
2.3 2013 |
3.5 2014 |
6.4 2020 |
3.7 2021 |
Worst |
-3.9 2022 |
-3.7 2020 |
-9.7 2020 |
-4.5 2022 |
-2.0 2019 |
-4.6 2022 |
-0.8 2014 |
-3.1 2015 |
-6.2 2022 |
-3.5 2018 |
-1.0 2021 |
-4.3 2018 |
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Return (%) | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
Average Gain Frequency |
1.02
71% |
0.22
61% |
0.57
71% |
0.89
68% |
0.17
66% |
0.77
65% |
1.12
69% |
0.68
62% |
-0.25
52% |
0.30
64% |
0.75
65% |
1.19
77% |
Capital Growth on monthly avg returns | ||||||||||||
100
|
101.02
|
101.24
|
101.82
|
102.72
|
102.90
|
103.69
|
104.84
|
105.55
|
105.29
|
105.61
|
106.40
|
107.66
|
Best |
8.2 1975 |
6.5 1931 |
5.0 2016 |
19.7 1933 |
9.1 1933 |
11.8 1938 |
14.3 1932 |
17.0 1932 |
6.9 1939 |
7.1 1982 |
6.9 1928 |
6.2 2008 |
Worst |
-6.8 2009 |
-9.6 1933 |
-13.4 1938 |
-8.8 1932 |
-11.6 1940 |
-8.0 1930 |
-5.7 1933 |
-6.1 1998 |
-13.1 1931 |
-12.1 2008 |
-5.9 1929 |
-4.9 1931 |
Monthly/Yearly Returns
Marvin Appel One-Decision Portfolio data source starts from January 1928: let's focus on monthly and yearly returns.
- Histogram: it shows the distribution of the returns recorded so far
- Plain Table: it shows the detailed monthly and yearly returns
Yearly Return(%) |
Monthly Return(%) |
|||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Total | Infl.Adj | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
2023 |
+2.42 | +0.20 | 5.7 | -2.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 | -1.3 | |||||||
2022 |
-13.18 | -18.44 | -3.9 | -1.5 | 1.4 | -4.5 | -0.3 | -4.6 | 5.0 | -3.1 | -6.2 | 3.4 | 3.8 | -2.8 |
2021 |
+16.51 | +8.85 | 0.1 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | -2.7 | 3.5 | -1.0 | 3.7 |
2020 |
+5.32 | +3.90 | 0.1 | -3.7 | -9.7 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 1.5 | -1.8 | -0.9 | 6.4 | 2.0 |
2019 |
+18.51 | +15.87 | 5.9 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | -2.0 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.2 |
2018 |
-3.64 | -5.44 | 0.2 | -3.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.6 | -0.7 | -3.5 | 1.3 | -4.3 |
2017 |
+8.07 | +5.84 | 0.2 | 1.9 | -0.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 0.9 | -0.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
2016 |
+8.52 | +6.31 | -2.2 | 0.3 | 5.0 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 2.2 | 2.4 | -0.6 | -0.3 | -2.3 | 1.2 | 1.9 |
2015 |
-0.25 | -0.97 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | -1.4 | 0.0 | -1.7 | 1.4 | -3.1 | -0.1 | 3.5 | 0.2 | -0.7 |
2014 |
+11.14 | +10.31 | 0.2 | 2.6 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | -0.8 | 2.3 | -2.5 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
2013 |
+10.43 | +8.80 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 2.2 | -0.9 | -1.3 | 2.2 | -2.6 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 0.1 | 0.8 |
2012 |
+10.65 | +8.76 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | -2.8 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.7 | -0.5 | 0.1 | 1.3 |
2011 |
+3.87 | +0.88 | 1.1 | 2.3 | -0.2 | 2.4 | 0.1 | -1.4 | 0.1 | -3.0 | -4.5 | 6.7 | -1.5 | 2.1 |
2010 |
+13.01 | +11.34 | -1.8 | 2.3 | 4.2 | 2.9 | -3.9 | -2.3 | 4.4 | -1.3 | 3.7 | 2.1 | -0.5 | 3.1 |
2009 |
+15.30 | +12.24 | -6.8 | -8.1 | 2.9 | 9.1 | 2.2 | 0.1 | 5.5 | 4.1 | 2.9 | -2.1 | 3.4 | 2.4 |
2008 |
-16.74 | -16.82 | -1.1 | -1.6 | 1.1 | 2.7 | 0.2 | -4.9 | 0.9 | 1.3 | -4.2 | -12.1 | -5.3 | 6.2 |
2007 |
-0.68 | -4.58 | 2.4 | -0.6 | -0.1 | 1.3 | 1.0 | -2.4 | -2.9 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.1 | -3.0 | -1.3 |
2006 |
+14.45 | +11.62 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 1.6 | -0.4 | -1.6 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 2.9 | 2.1 | -0.2 |
2005 |
+5.08 | +1.61 | -2.2 | 1.2 | -1.1 | 0.6 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 2.7 | -0.9 | 0.2 | -1.7 | 2.4 | 0.1 |
2004 |
+12.05 | +8.52 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.3 | -4.6 | 1.8 | 1.5 | -0.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 2.2 |
2003 |
+18.87 | +16.67 | -1.6 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 2.6 |
2002 |
-2.42 | -4.69 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 2.5 | -0.2 | 0.1 | -1.2 | -4.0 | 0.6 | -2.7 | 0.2 | 2.4 | -0.4 |
2001 |
+4.32 | +2.72 | 2.3 | -2.4 | -1.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -3.5 | 0.4 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
2000 |
+9.42 | +5.83 | -1.3 | 0.2 | 3.4 | 0.6 | -0.2 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.0 | -0.9 | -1.2 | 3.5 |
1999 |
+4.70 | +1.97 | 0.4 | -2.2 | 1.0 | 3.6 | 0.2 | 1.4 | -1.4 | -0.7 | -1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 2.1 |
1998 |
+5.32 | +3.65 | 0.3 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 0.0 | -0.8 | 1.1 | -2.2 | -6.1 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.8 |
1997 |
+17.36 | +15.40 | 1.7 | 0.3 | -1.2 | 1.2 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 3.6 | -1.2 | 4.1 | -1.1 | 1.4 | 1.6 |
1996 |
+15.52 | +11.81 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | -1.3 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 3.6 | 1.9 |
1995 |
+19.02 | +16.08 | 0.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 1.8 | -0.7 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
1994 |
-1.28 | -3.85 | 1.9 | -1.2 | -2.8 | 0.1 | 0.3 | -1.0 | 1.3 | 1.7 | -1.4 | -0.2 | -1.8 | 2.0 |
1993 |
+11.41 | +8.43 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | -1.5 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | -1.8 | 0.8 |
1992 |
+9.68 | +6.58 | 0.9 | 0.5 | -0.9 | 0.6 | 1.8 | -0.4 | 2.7 | -0.4 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 1.6 |
1991 |
+23.01 | +19.36 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 1.7 | -2.0 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | -1.3 | 5.9 |
1990 |
-1.89 | -7.54 | -3.3 | 0.5 | 1.1 | -1.4 | 3.3 | 0.6 | -0.2 | -4.5 | -2.5 | -0.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 |
1989 |
+15.28 | +10.16 | 2.8 | -0.6 | 1.2 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 3.7 | 0.6 | -0.1 | -0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
1988 |
+12.57 | +7.81 | 3.5 | 2.9 | -0.5 | 0.5 | -0.3 | 3.1 | 0.1 | -0.7 | 2.1 | 1.2 | -1.1 | 1.3 |
1987 |
+2.00 | -2.33 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | -1.4 | 0.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | -1.2 | -10.0 | -1.4 | 3.3 |
1986 |
+13.98 | +12.75 | 1.3 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 2.8 | -1.9 | 3.5 | -3.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | -1.1 |
1985 |
+20.92 | +16.49 | 4.2 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.0 | -1.3 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 3.1 |
1984 |
+12.26 | +7.99 | 1.3 | -0.9 | 0.4 | 0.6 | -2.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 1.5 |
1983 |
+19.12 | +14.77 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 0.5 | 1.8 | -1.5 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
1982 |
+23.18 | +18.64 | -0.3 | -0.9 | 0.0 | 2.8 | 0.0 | -1.5 | 1.0 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 1.9 |
1981 |
+6.73 | -2.01 | -0.1 | 0.5 | 2.8 | -0.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | -0.6 | -2.5 | -2.6 | 4.4 | 4.2 | -1.2 |
1980 |
+17.14 | +4.11 | 2.9 | -1.2 | -5.6 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 2.7 | 2.5 | -0.4 |
1979 |
+17.24 | +3.48 | 3.1 | -0.4 | 3.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 4.9 | -0.6 | -6.2 | 3.3 | 2.1 |
1978 |
+7.38 | -1.50 | -1.8 | 0.3 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 0.2 | -0.3 | 2.8 | 3.1 | -0.1 | -5.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 |
1977 |
+6.67 | -0.03 | -0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 2.9 | -0.3 | 0.1 | 0.3 | -0.9 | 2.7 | 0.7 |
1976 |
+25.20 | +19.39 | 7.5 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | -1.2 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 2.1 | 4.2 |
1975 |
+21.70 | +13.80 | 8.2 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 3.8 | -2.3 | -1.0 | -2.5 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 1.0 |
1974 |
-10.56 | -20.39 | 1.6 | 1.1 | -1.5 | -2.6 | -2.3 | -0.3 | -3.4 | -3.8 | -2.2 | 4.8 | -1.6 | -0.6 |
1973 |
-6.39 | -13.88 | -0.6 | -2.3 | 0.3 | -2.0 | -1.4 | 0.3 | 1.7 | -1.2 | 3.8 | 0.8 | -5.9 | 0.3 |
1972 |
+8.28 | +4.72 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 1.2 | -1.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 1.9 | -0.2 |
1971 |
+8.61 | +5.17 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | -2.5 | -0.3 | -2.2 | 2.9 | 0.2 | -1.8 | 0.0 | 4.6 |
1970 |
+8.28 | +2.56 | -3.1 | 4.4 | 0.3 | -5.0 | -2.5 | -1.3 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 2.4 | -0.2 | 4.0 | 3.1 |
1969 |
-0.95 | -6.73 | 0.1 | -1.9 | 2.2 | 1.8 | -0.1 | -2.4 | -2.2 | 2.2 | -1.5 | 3.5 | -1.5 | -1.0 |
1968 |
+8.59 | +3.69 | -0.8 | -1.2 | 0.5 | 4.3 | 0.8 | 1.2 | -0.2 | 2.9 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 2.5 | -2.4 |
1967 |
+11.78 | +8.48 | 4.4 | 0.1 | 2.6 | 2.1 | -2.6 | 0.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.1 | -1.8 | 0.2 | 1.8 |
1966 |
-0.03 | -3.37 | 0.8 | -0.9 | -0.1 | 1.4 | -2.2 | -0.5 | -0.2 | -3.6 | 0.8 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 1.3 |
1965 |
+7.42 | +5.39 | 2.0 | 0.2 | -0.4 | 2.0 | -0.1 | -2.2 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.6 | -0.3 | 0.5 |
1964 |
+7.72 | +6.69 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.0 | -0.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | -0.2 | 0.3 |
1963 |
+8.66 | +6.90 | 2.4 | -1.6 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | -1.2 | -0.2 | 2.5 | -0.7 | 1.6 | -0.5 | 1.2 |
1962 |
-0.86 | -2.16 | -1.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | -2.6 | -3.7 | -3.5 | 3.1 | 1.2 | -1.7 | 0.7 | 4.8 | 1.1 |
1961 |
+9.51 | +8.78 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -2.0 | 1.6 | 0.8 | -1.1 | 1.5 | 2.1 | -0.1 |
1960 |
+3.46 | +2.07 | -3.3 | 1.2 | 0.1 | -0.6 | 1.4 | 1.6 | -0.5 | 1.7 | -2.6 | 0.0 | 2.1 | 2.6 |
1959 |
+4.93 | +3.14 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | -0.1 | 1.9 | -0.7 | -2.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.4 |
1958 |
+15.16 | +13.17 | 2.1 | -1.2 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.7 | -0.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 2.8 |
1957 |
-0.23 | -3.04 | -1.5 | -0.8 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 0.1 | 0.9 | -2.3 | -2.4 | -1.0 | 1.7 | -0.5 |
1956 |
+2.65 | -0.32 | -1.6 | 2.0 | 3.5 | -0.3 | -3.0 | 2.3 | 2.7 | -2.2 | -2.2 | 0.6 | -0.6 | 1.8 |
1955 |
+8.77 | +8.36 | 0.4 | -0.2 | -0.6 | 1.5 | -0.4 | 4.0 | 2.9 | -0.9 | 0.4 | -1.9 | 4.0 | -0.4 |
1954 |
+17.75 | +18.63 | 2.3 | -0.3 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 1.2 | -0.4 | 2.9 | -2.5 | 4.4 | -1.7 | 4.4 | 2.8 |
1953 |
+3.01 | +2.24 | 0.0 | -0.5 | -0.8 | -0.9 | 0.0 | -0.3 | 2.1 | -2.3 | 0.7 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
1952 |
+6.69 | +5.89 | 0.8 | -1.9 | 2.4 | -2.0 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | -0.9 | -1.2 | 0.2 | 2.6 | 1.9 |
1951 |
+7.69 | +1.60 | 3.1 | 0.2 | -1.2 | 2.3 | -2.3 | -1.4 | 3.8 | 2.6 | -0.5 | -0.8 | -0.2 | 2.2 |
1950 |
+12.10 | +5.82 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | -3.2 | 0.6 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 2.8 |
1949 |
+6.86 | +9.12 | 0.2 | -1.9 | 1.6 | -1.0 | -1.8 | 0.1 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 2.5 |
1948 |
+2.07 | -0.89 | -1.8 | -2.1 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 4.3 | 0.2 | -2.7 | 0.6 | -1.3 | 3.6 | -5.5 | 1.8 |
1947 |
+5.70 | -2.89 | 1.7 | -0.2 | -0.3 | -1.5 | 0.1 | 3.0 | 2.3 | -0.9 | -0.3 | 1.4 | -1.1 | 1.3 |
1946 |
+2.54 | -13.20 | 4.3 | -2.8 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.8 | -1.3 | -0.7 | -3.0 | -4.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 2.8 |
1945 |
+17.56 | +14.97 | 1.1 | 3.3 | -2.2 | 4.8 | 0.7 | 0.0 | -1.0 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 |
1944 |
+12.01 | +9.49 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 1.2 | -0.3 | 2.4 | 3.0 | -0.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 2.2 |
1943 |
+13.73 | +10.46 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 0.4 | 2.8 | 1.4 | -2.8 | 0.8 | 1.6 | -0.5 | -3.9 | 3.5 |
1942 |
+7.74 | -1.19 | 0.8 | -1.6 | -2.8 | -2.1 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 3.5 | -0.7 | 3.0 |
1941 |
-3.99 | -12.66 | -2.0 | -0.5 | 0.9 | -2.6 | 0.6 | 3.2 | 3.3 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -2.8 | -1.7 | -2.0 |
1940 |
-0.89 | -1.59 | -1.3 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.1 | -11.6 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 2.4 | -1.2 | 0.5 |
1939 |
-0.68 | -0.68 | -3.3 | 1.8 | -6.4 | 0.0 | 3.2 | -2.9 | 5.1 | -3.5 | 6.9 | -0.2 | -2.1 | 1.5 |
1938 |
+10.93 | +14.10 | 0.6 | 3.0 | -13.4 | 6.4 | -2.3 | 11.8 | 3.7 | -1.7 | 0.5 | 4.2 | -2.3 | 2.0 |
1937 |
-10.52 | -13.01 | 2.8 | 1.5 | -0.2 | -3.5 | 0.4 | -1.7 | 5.7 | -2.0 | -5.8 | -3.5 | -3.1 | -1.0 |
1936 |
+13.90 | +12.28 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 1.3 | -4.2 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 3.6 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 4.2 | 0.4 | -0.4 |
1935 |
+16.78 | +13.40 | -2.2 | -2.3 | -2.0 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
1934 |
+2.19 | +0.66 | 5.8 | -1.3 | 0.6 | -0.9 | -3.7 | 1.4 | -5.2 | 2.6 | -0.1 | -0.9 | 4.3 | 0.2 |
1933 |
+21.91 | +20.99 | 0.5 | -9.6 | 1.2 | 19.7 | 9.1 | 7.9 | -5.7 | 6.9 | -7.3 | -5.7 | 5.7 | 1.1 |
1932 |
-1.37 | +9.93 | -1.5 | 3.4 | -5.3 | -8.8 | -9.5 | 0.2 | 14.3 | 17.0 | -1.4 | -6.7 | -2.3 | 2.9 |
1931 |
-15.40 | -6.70 | 3.4 | 6.5 | -2.9 | -4.1 | -5.7 | 7.2 | -2.8 | 1.3 | -13.1 | 3.4 | -2.9 | -4.9 |
1930 |
-6.85 | -0.49 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 4.9 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -8.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | -5.7 | -3.3 | -0.2 | -2.5 |
1929 |
-2.21 | -2.78 | 3.0 | -0.2 | 0.0 | 1.3 | -1.9 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 5.5 | -2.5 | -10.6 | -5.9 | 1.5 |
1928 |
+12.69 | +14.01 | -0.8 | -1.4 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 0.1 | -2.8 | 0.0 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 6.9 | -0.4 |
Portofolio Returns, up to December 2007, are simulated. They have been calculated using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.
In particular, it has been used:
- SPY - SPDR S&P 500: simulated historical serie, up to December 1993
- VNQ - Vanguard Real Estate: simulated historical serie, up to December 2004
- IJS - iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value: simulated historical serie, up to December 2000
- BIL - SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
- LQD - iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond: simulated historical serie, up to December 2002
Portfolio efficiency
Compared to the Marvin Appel One-Decision Portfolio, the following portfolios granted a higher return over 30 Years and a less severe drawdown at the same time.
30 Years Stats (%) |
% Allocation |
|||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Portfolio | Return▾ | Dev.Std | Drawdown | Stocks | Bonds | Comm | ||
Stocks/Bonds 60/40 | +7.93 | 9.46 | -30.55 | 60 | 40 | 0 | ||
Couch Potato | +7.88 | 8.66 | -27.04 | 50 | 50 | 0 | ||
Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Momentum | +7.77 | 6.87 | -21.11 | 40 | 60 | 0 | ||
Golden Butterfly | +7.52 | 7.52 | -17.79 | 40 | 40 | 20 | ||
Robo Advisor 50 | +7.29 | 9.24 | -30.72 | 49.9 | 50.1 | 0 | ||
Dimensional 2030 Retirement Income | +7.25 | 9.17 | -31.78 | 55.9 | 44.1 | 0 | ||
Marc Faber Portfolio | +7.20 | 9.54 | -28.82 | 50 | 25 | 25 | ||
All Weather Portfolio | +7.19 | 7.21 | -20.19 | 30 | 55 | 15 | ||
Edge Select Moderate | +7.18 | 8.84 | -29.58 | 53 | 47 | 0 | ||
Sandwich Portfolio | +7.08 | 8.23 | -28.96 | 55 | 45 | 0 | ||
Global Market Portfolio | +6.96 | 8.14 | -25.90 | 45 | 55 | 0 | ||
Dynamic 40/60 Income | +6.88 | 8.02 | -29.84 | 40 | 60 | 0 | ||
One-Decision Portfolio | +6.84 | 8.25 | -31.96 | 50 | 50 | 0 |
Here's a list containing the Best Classic Portfolios, with the highest returns over 30 Years
and Medium Risk categorization.30 Years Stats (%) |
% Allocation |
|||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Portfolio | Return▾ | Dev.Std | Drawdown | Stocks | Bonds | Comm | ||
Couch Potato | +7.88 | 8.66 | -27.04 | 50 | 50 | 0 | ||
Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Momentum | +7.77 | 6.87 | -21.11 | 40 | 60 | 0 | ||
Robo Advisor 50 | +7.29 | 9.24 | -30.72 | 49.9 | 50.1 | 0 | ||
All Weather Portfolio | +7.19 | 7.21 | -20.19 | 30 | 55 | 15 | ||
Global Market Portfolio | +6.96 | 8.14 | -25.90 | 45 | 55 | 0 |