Marvin Appel One-Decision Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns

Data Source: from January 1928 to March 2024 (~96 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 31 March 2024
Live Update: Apr 19 2024
PORTFOLIO • LIVE PERFORMANCE (USD currency)
0.06%
1 Day
Apr 19 2024
4.04%
Current Month
April 2024

The Marvin Appel One-Decision Portfolio is a Medium Risk portfolio and can be implemented with 5 ETFs.

It's exposed for 50% on the Stock Market.

In the last 30 Years, the Marvin Appel One-Decision Portfolio obtained a 7.15% compound annual return, with a 8.40% standard deviation.

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Asset Allocation and ETFs

The Marvin Appel One-Decision Portfolio has the following asset allocation:

50% Stocks
50% Fixed Income
0% Commodities

The Marvin Appel One-Decision Portfolio can be implemented with the following ETFs:

Weight
(%)		 Investment Themes (Orig.Currency) ETF
Ticker		 ETF
Currency		 ETF Name
20.00 Equity, U.S., Large Cap (USD)
SPY
USD SPDR S&P 500
20.00 Real Estate, U.S. (USD)
VNQ
USD Vanguard Real Estate
10.00 Equity, U.S., Small Cap, Value (USD)
IJS
USD iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value
30.00 Bond, U.S., Ultra Short-Term (USD)
BIL
USD SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill
20.00 Bond, U.S., All-Term (USD)
LQD
USD iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond

Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

Portfolio and ETF Returns as of Mar 31, 2024

The Marvin Appel One-Decision Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.

Returns are calculated in USD, assuming: April 2024 return is calculated on the hypothesis of a newly built portfolio, with the starting asset allocation.
MARVIN APPEL ONE-DECISION PORTFOLIO
Consolidated returns as of 31 March 2024
Live Update: Apr 19 2024
Swipe left to see all data
  Chg (%) Return (%) Return (%) as of Mar 31, 2024
  1 Day Time ET(*) Apr 2024 1M 6M 1Y 5Y 10Y 30Y MAX
(~96Y)
Marvin Appel One-Decision Portfolio 0.06 -4.04 1.66 11.88 10.82 5.85 5.79 7.15 7.26
US Inflation Adjusted return 1.28 10.11 7.09 1.59 2.87 4.49 4.08
Components
SPY
USD SPDR S&P 500 -0.87 Apr 19 2024 -5.34 3.27 23.24 29.63 14.96 12.85 10.54 9.87
VNQ
USD Vanguard Real Estate 0.48 Apr 19 2024 -8.65 1.09 15.70 7.62 3.48 6.11 8.74 7.00
IJS
USD iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value 1.16 Apr 19 2024 -6.96 3.38 15.84 11.55 8.54 7.75 10.46 12.61
BIL
USD SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill 0.01 Apr 19 2024 0.31 0.41 2.64 5.21 1.87 1.22 2.27 3.32
LQD
USD iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond 0.10 Apr 19 2024 -3.22 1.54 9.13 3.63 1.39 2.59 5.26 5.16
Returns over 1 year are annualized | Available data source: since Jan 1928
(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)
US Inflation is updated to Mar 2024. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 3.48% , 5Y: 4.19% , 10Y: 2.84% , 30Y: 2.54%
Live update: World Markets and Indexes

In 2023, the Marvin Appel One-Decision Portfolio granted a 3.73% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Marvin Appel One-Decision Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.

Capital Growth as of Mar 31, 2024

An investment of 1$, since April 1994, now would be worth 7.94$, with a total return of 693.75% (7.15% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 3.74$, with a net total return of 273.96% (4.49% annualized).
An investment of 1$, since January 1928, now would be worth 850.79$, with a total return of 84979.15% (7.26% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 47.16$, with a net total return of 4616.07% (4.08% annualized).
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Portfolio Metrics as of Mar 31, 2024

Metrics of Marvin Appel One-Decision Portfolio, updated as of 31 March 2024.

Metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:
MARVIN APPEL ONE-DECISION PORTFOLIO
Advanced Metrics
Data Source: 1 January 1928 - 31 March 2024 (~96 years)
Swipe left to see all data
Metrics as of Mar 31, 2024
1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
(~96Y)
Investment Return (%) 1.66 1.87 11.88 10.82 3.54 5.85 5.79 5.99 7.15 7.26
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) details 1.28 0.73 10.11 7.09 -1.98 1.59 2.87 3.31 4.49 4.08
US Inflation (%) 0.38 1.13 1.61 3.48 5.63 4.19 2.84 2.59 2.54 3.05
Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized.
DRAWDOWN
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -7.22 -16.74 -16.74 -16.74 -31.96 -31.96 -47.77
Start to Recovery (# months) details 5 27* 27* 27* 41 41 83
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 08 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2007 06 2007 06 1929 09
Start to Bottom (# months) 3 9 9 9 21 21 33
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2009 02 2009 02 1932 05
Bottom to End (# months) 2 18 18 18 20 20 50
End (yyyy mm) 2023 12 - - - 2010 10 2010 10 1936 07
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same as
deepest
same as
deepest
same as
deepest
same as
deepest
same as
deepest
same as
deepest
same as
deepest
Start to Recovery (# months) details
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 08 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2007 06 2007 06 1929 09
Start to Bottom (# months) 3 9 9 9 21 21 33
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2009 02 2009 02 1932 05
Bottom to End (# months) 2 18 18 18 20 20 50
End (yyyy mm) 2023 12 - - - 2010 10 2010 10 1936 07
Longest negative period (# months) details 7 31 32 32 60 64 154
Period Start (yyyy mm) 2023 04 2021 04 2021 03 2021 03 2004 04 2003 11 1929 09
Period End (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2009 03 2009 02 1942 06
Annualized Return (%) -5.14 -1.12 -0.23 -0.23 -1.18 -0.07 -0.08
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -8.09 -21.11 -21.11 -21.11 -33.86 -33.86 -34.04
Start to Recovery (# months) details 5 27* 27* 27* 47 47 45
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 08 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2007 06 2007 06 1929 09
Start to Bottom (# months) 3 9 9 9 21 21 33
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2009 02 2009 02 1932 05
Bottom to End (# months) 2 18 18 18 26 26 12
End (yyyy mm) 2023 12 - - - 2011 04 2011 04 1933 05
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same as
deepest
same as
deepest
same as
deepest
same as
deepest
same as
deepest
same as
deepest		 -25.75
Start to Recovery (# months) details 96
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 08 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2007 06 2007 06 1937 03
Start to Bottom (# months) 3 9 9 9 21 21 62
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2009 02 2009 02 1942 04
Bottom to End (# months) 2 18 18 18 26 26 34
End (yyyy mm) 2023 12 - - - 2011 04 2011 04 1945 02
Longest negative period (# months) details 7 36* 55 72 72 116 173
Period Start (yyyy mm) 2023 04 2021 04 2019 04 2017 11 2017 11 1999 07 1965 11
Period End (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2024 03 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2009 02 1980 03
Annualized Return (%) -8.18 -1.98 -0.85 -0.04 -0.04 -0.12 -0.03
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
RISK INDICATORS
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Standard Deviation (%) 10.29 11.06 10.92 8.92 9.37 8.40 9.39
Sharpe Ratio 0.55 0.09 0.36 0.51 0.50 0.58 0.35
Sortino Ratio 0.83 0.13 0.48 0.69 0.64 0.75 0.47
Ulcer Index 2.58 8.00 6.64 4.91 6.61 5.54 7.73
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 1.05 0.32 0.54 0.65 0.64 0.85 0.77
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 1.50 0.21 0.35 0.35 0.19 0.22 0.15
% Positive Months details 58% 55% 65% 68% 67% 69% 65%
Positive Months 7 20 39 82 163 251 761
Negative Months 5 16 21 38 77 109 394
LONG TERM RETURNS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 5.79 10.00 10.19 15.47
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 4.82 3.02 -0.03
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 2.87 8.10 8.10 10.11
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 1.98 0.42 -1.86
ROLLING PERIODS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Over the latest 30Y
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 36.76 18.23 14.69 10.19 8.26 7.15
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -26.73 -7.87 -1.50 3.02 5.73
% Positive Periods 84% 93% 99% 100% 100% 100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 85.05 28.37 17.87 10.19 6.76 6.80
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - 0.50 3.26 4.98
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 33.70 15.47 12.38 8.10 5.83 4.49
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -26.74 -9.83 -4.03 0.42 3.08
% Positive Periods 81% 85% 95% 100% 100% 100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 85.05 28.37 17.87 10.19 6.76 6.80
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - 0.50 3.26 4.98
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Over all the available data source (Jan 1928 - Mar 2024)
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 60.03 22.71 20.24 15.47 13.00 11.95
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -34.89 -17.20 -5.17 -0.03 3.03 4.74
% Positive Periods 81% 91% 95% 99% 100% 100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 84.74 27.02 16.61 8.87 5.10 4.00
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - - 1.26 1.98
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 71.38 18.57 16.58 10.11 8.29 7.18
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -27.71 -10.63 -5.11 -1.86 1.15 1.95
% Positive Periods 71% 82% 88% 94% 100% 100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 84.74 27.02 16.61 8.87 5.10 4.00
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - - 1.26 1.98
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Terms and Definitions
  • Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio.
  • Deepest/Longest Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. The deepest (or maximum) drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained. The longest drawdown is the period observed from a peak to the subsequent peak with the greatest duration.
  • Longest negative period: it's the maximum period for which an overall negative return has been observed.
  • Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean.
  • Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return.
  • Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation).
  • Ulcer Index: it's a measure of downside risk that quantifies the depth and duration of drawdowns in an investment portfolio.
  • Best/Worst 10Y returns: the best and the worst 10-year return over a time frame.
  • Rolling Returns: N-year returns over a time frame, calculated over all the available data source (best, worst, % of positive returns). Each rolling period, longer than the longest negative period, yielded a non-negative minimum return.
  • Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money in any case (money amount withdrawal).
    For instance: Your initial invested capital is 100.000$; withdrawal rate (annualized) is 4%. This means that, in the first month, you will withdraw 100.000 * 4% * 1/12 = 333.33$. The second month, you’ll withdraw 333.33$ plus the inflation monthly rate. You’ll continue adjusting your withdraw monthly for inflation.
  • Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too.

Portfolio Components Correlation

Correlation measures to what degree the returns of the two assets move in relation to each other.

Correlation coefficient is a numerical value between -1 and +1. If one variable goes up by a certain amount, the correlation coefficient indicates which way the other variable moves and by how much.
Asset correlations are calculated based on monthly returns.
COMPONENTS MONTHLY CORRELATIONS
Monthly correlations as of 31 March 2024
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If you want to learn more about historical correlations, you can find out here how the main asset class are correlated to each other.

Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

MARVIN APPEL ONE-DECISION PORTFOLIO
Drawdown periods
Drawdown periods - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 April 1994 - 31 March 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1928 - 31 March 2024 (~96 years)
Inflation Adjusted:
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Rolling Returns

( more details)

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

MARVIN APPEL ONE-DECISION PORTFOLIO
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 April 1994 - 31 March 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1928 - 31 March 2024 (~96 years)
Inflation Adjusted:

If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Marvin Appel One-Decision Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.

Seasonality

In which months is it better to invest in Marvin Appel One-Decision Portfolio?

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.
For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
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Monthly Returns

This section provides a visual/tabular representation of the performance variability in the Marvin Appel One-Decision Portfolio over time. It illustrates the distribution of monthly returns, showcasing the range and frequency of positive and negative returns.

MARVIN APPEL ONE-DECISION PORTFOLIO
Monthly Returns Distribution
Data Source: 1 April 1994 - 31 March 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1928 - 31 March 2024 (~96 years)
251 Positive Months (70%) - 109 Negative Months (30%)
761 Positive Months (66%) - 394 Negative Months (34%)
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(Scroll down to see all data)
Investment Returns, up to December 2007, have been derived using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.
You can find additional information on extended Data Sources here.

In particular, the series derived from equivalent datasets are:
  • SPY - SPDR S&P 500 (SPY), up to December 1993
  • VNQ - Vanguard Real Estate (VNQ), up to December 2004
  • IJS - iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value (IJS), up to December 2000
  • BIL - SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill (BIL), up to December 2007
  • LQD - iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD), up to December 2002

Portfolio efficiency

The following portfolios granted a higher return over 30 Years and a less severe drawdown at the same time.

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In the following table, you can compare the current portfolio with a list of famous portfolios. Metrics are calculated over the last 30 Years.

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