Marvin Appel One-Decision Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns

Data Source: from January 1928 to February 2024 (~96 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 29 February 2024
Live Update: Mar 01 2024
PORTFOLIO • LIVE PERFORMANCE (USD currency)
0.59%
1 Day
Mar 01 2024
0.59%
Current Month
March 2024

The Marvin Appel One-Decision Portfolio is a Medium Risk portfolio and can be implemented with 5 ETFs.

It's exposed for 50% on the Stock Market.

In the last 30 Years, the Marvin Appel One-Decision Portfolio obtained a 6.99% compound annual return, with a 8.42% standard deviation.

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Asset Allocation and ETFs

The Marvin Appel One-Decision Portfolio has the following asset allocation:

50% Stocks
50% Fixed Income
0% Commodities

The Marvin Appel One-Decision Portfolio can be implemented with the following ETFs:

Weight (%) Ticker Currency ETF Name Investment Themes
20.00
SPY
USD SPDR S&P 500 Equity, U.S., Large Cap
20.00
VNQ
USD Vanguard Real Estate Real Estate, U.S.
10.00
IJS
USD iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value Equity, U.S., Small Cap, Value
30.00
BIL
USD SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill Bond, U.S., Ultra Short-Term
20.00
LQD
USD iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond Bond, U.S., All-Term

Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

Portfolio and ETF Returns as of Feb 29, 2024

The Marvin Appel One-Decision Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.

Returns are calculated in USD, assuming: March 2024 return is calculated on the hypothesis of a newly built portfolio, with the starting asset allocation.
MARVIN APPEL ONE-DECISION PORTFOLIO
Consolidated returns as of 29 February 2024
Live Update: Mar 01 2024
Swipe left to see all data
  Chg (%) Return (%) Return (%) as of Feb 29, 2024
  1 Day Time ET(*) Mar 2024 1M 6M 1Y 5Y 10Y 30Y MAX
(~96Y)
Marvin Appel One-Decision Portfolio 0.59 0.59 1.43 6.03 9.54 5.81 5.66 6.99 7.25
US Inflation Adjusted return 1.43 4.84 6.65 1.64 2.81 4.36 4.08
Components
SPY
USD SPDR S&P 500 0.94 Mar 01 2024 0.94 5.22 13.68 30.18 14.63 12.58 10.26 9.84
VNQ
USD Vanguard Real Estate 1.19 Mar 01 2024 1.19 1.98 6.13 4.14 4.12 6.04 8.49 6.99
IJS
USD iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value 0.32 Mar 01 2024 0.32 2.37 5.01 0.91 6.96 7.54 10.17 12.58
BIL
USD SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill 0.03 Mar 01 2024 0.03 0.44 2.62 5.20 1.82 1.18 2.26 3.32
LQD
USD iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond 0.61 Mar 01 2024 0.61 -1.93 3.66 5.99 1.67 2.43 5.11 5.15
Returns over 1 year are annualized | Available data source: since Jan 1928
(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)
US Inflation is updated to Jan 2024. Pending updates, the monthly inflation is set at 0% for the subsequent periods. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 2.71% , 5Y: 4.10% , 10Y: 2.77% , 30Y: 2.52%

In 2023, the Marvin Appel One-Decision Portfolio granted a 3.73% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Marvin Appel One-Decision Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.

Capital Growth as of Feb 29, 2024

An investment of 1$, since March 1994, now would be worth 7.59$, with a total return of 658.76% (6.99% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 3.59$, with a net total return of 259.43% (4.36% annualized).
An investment of 1$, since January 1928, now would be worth 836.91$, with a total return of 83591.36% (7.25% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 46.77$, with a net total return of 4577.27% (4.08% annualized).

Portfolio Metrics as of Feb 29, 2024

Metrics of Marvin Appel One-Decision Portfolio, updated as of 29 February 2024.

Metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:
MARVIN APPEL ONE-DECISION PORTFOLIO
Advanced Metrics
Data Source: 1 January 1928 - 29 February 2024 (~96 years)
Swipe left to see all data
Metrics as of Feb 29, 2024
1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
(~96Y)
Investment Return (%) 1.43 5.39 6.03 9.54 3.77 5.81 5.66 5.97 6.99 7.25
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) details 1.43 4.83 4.84 6.65 -1.66 1.64 2.81 3.33 4.36 4.08
US Inflation (%) 0.00 0.54 1.14 2.71 5.52 4.10 2.77 2.56 2.52 3.04
Pending updates, the monthly inflation after Jan 2024 is set at 0%. Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized.
DRAWDOWN
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -7.22 -16.74 -16.74 -16.74 -31.96 -31.96 -47.77
Start to Recovery (# months) details 5 26* 26* 26* 41 41 83
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 08 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2007 06 2007 06 1929 09
Start to Bottom (# months) 3 9 9 9 21 21 33
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2009 02 2009 02 1932 05
Bottom to End (# months) 2 17 17 17 20 20 50
End (yyyy mm) 2023 12 - - - 2010 10 2010 10 1936 07
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest
Start to Recovery (# months) details
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 08 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2007 06 2007 06 1929 09
Start to Bottom (# months) 3 9 9 9 21 21 33
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2009 02 2009 02 1932 05
Bottom to End (# months) 2 17 17 17 20 20 50
End (yyyy mm) 2023 12 - - - 2010 10 2010 10 1936 07
Longest negative period (# months) details 8 32 32 32 61 64 154
Period Start (yyyy mm) 2023 03 2021 03 2021 03 2021 03 2004 03 2003 11 1929 09
Period End (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2009 03 2009 02 1942 06
Annualized Return (%) -3.81 -0.23 -0.23 -0.23 -0.92 -0.07 -0.08
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -8.09 -21.11 -21.11 -21.11 -33.86 -33.86 -34.04
Start to Recovery (# months) details 5 26* 26* 26* 47 47 45
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 08 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2007 06 2007 06 1929 09
Start to Bottom (# months) 3 9 9 9 21 21 33
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2009 02 2009 02 1932 05
Bottom to End (# months) 2 17 17 17 26 26 12
End (yyyy mm) 2023 12 - - - 2011 04 2011 04 1933 05
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest
-25.75
Start to Recovery (# months) details 96
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 08 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2007 06 2007 06 1937 03
Start to Bottom (# months) 3 9 9 9 21 21 62
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2009 02 2009 02 1942 04
Bottom to End (# months) 2 17 17 17 26 26 34
End (yyyy mm) 2023 12 - - - 2011 04 2011 04 1945 02
Longest negative period (# months) details 8 36* 56 72 72 116 173
Period Start (yyyy mm) 2023 03 2021 03 2019 03 2017 11 2017 11 1999 07 1965 11
Period End (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2024 02 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2009 02 1980 03
Annualized Return (%) -6.63 -1.66 -0.61 -0.04 -0.04 -0.12 -0.03
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
RISK INDICATORS
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Standard Deviation (%) 10.27 11.10 10.91 8.92 9.37 8.42 9.39
Sharpe Ratio 0.42 0.13 0.36 0.50 0.49 0.56 0.35
Sortino Ratio 0.66 0.18 0.48 0.67 0.64 0.73 0.47
Ulcer Index 2.58 8.00 6.64 4.91 6.61 5.55 7.73
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 0.93 0.34 0.53 0.63 0.64 0.83 0.77
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 1.32 0.22 0.35 0.34 0.19 0.22 0.15
% Positive Months details 58% 55% 65% 68% 67% 69% 65%
Positive Months 7 20 39 82 163 250 760
Negative Months 5 16 21 38 77 110 394
LONG TERM RETURNS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 5.66 10.00 10.19 15.47
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 4.82 3.02 -0.03
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 2.81 8.10 8.10 10.11
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 1.98 0.42 -1.86
ROLLING PERIODS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Over the latest 30Y
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 36.76 18.23 14.69 10.19 8.26 6.99
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -26.73 -7.87 -1.50 3.02 5.73
% Positive Periods 84% 93% 99% 100% 100% 100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 85.05 28.37 17.87 10.19 6.76 6.58
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - 0.50 3.27 4.75
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 33.70 15.47 12.38 8.10 5.83 4.36
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -26.74 -9.83 -4.03 0.42 3.08
% Positive Periods 80% 85% 95% 100% 100% 100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 85.05 28.37 17.87 10.19 6.76 6.58
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - 0.50 3.27 4.75
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Over all the available data source (Jan 1928 - Feb 2024)
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 60.03 22.71 20.24 15.47 13.00 11.95
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -34.89 -17.20 -5.17 -0.03 3.03 4.74
% Positive Periods 81% 91% 95% 99% 100% 100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 84.74 27.02 16.61 8.87 5.10 4.00
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - - 1.26 1.98
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 71.38 18.57 16.58 10.11 8.29 7.18
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -27.71 -10.63 -5.11 -1.86 1.15 1.95
% Positive Periods 71% 82% 88% 94% 100% 100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 84.74 27.02 16.61 8.87 5.10 4.00
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - - 1.26 1.98
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Terms and Definitions
  • Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio.
  • Deepest/Longest Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. The deepest (or maximum) drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained. The longest drawdown is the period observed from a peak to the subsequent peak with the greatest duration.
  • Longest negative period: it's the maximum period for which an overall negative return has been observed.
  • Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean.
  • Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return.
  • Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation).
  • Ulcer Index: it's a measure of downside risk that quantifies the depth and duration of drawdowns in an investment portfolio.
  • Best/Worst 10Y returns: the best and the worst 10-year return over a time frame.
  • Rolling Returns: N-year returns over a time frame, calculated over all the available data source (best, worst, % of positive returns). Each rolling period, longer than the longest negative period, yielded a non-negative minimum return.
  • Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money in any case (money amount withdrawal).
    For instance: Your initial invested capital is 100.000$; withdrawal rate (annualized) is 4%. This means that, in the first month, you will withdraw 100.000 * 4% * 1/12 = 333.33$. The second month, you’ll withdraw 333.33$ plus the inflation monthly rate. You’ll continue adjusting your withdraw monthly for inflation.
  • Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too.

Portfolio Components Correlation

Correlation measures to what degree the returns of the two assets move in relation to each other.

Correlation coefficient is a numerical value between -1 and +1. If one variable goes up by a certain amount, the correlation coefficient indicates which way the other variable moves and by how much.
Asset correlations are calculated based on monthly returns.
COMPONENTS MONTHLY CORRELATIONS
Monthly correlations as of 29 February 2024
Swipe left to see all data
Asset
SPY
VNQ
IJS
BIL
LQD
SPY
-
0.86
0.76
0.25
0.77
VNQ
0.86
-
0.93
0.33
0.80
IJS
0.76
0.93
-
0.25
0.61
BIL
0.25
0.33
0.25
-
0.19
LQD
0.77
0.80
0.61
0.19
-
Asset
SPY
VNQ
IJS
BIL
LQD
SPY
-
0.85
0.83
-0.04
0.67
VNQ
0.85
-
0.78
-0.11
0.72
IJS
0.83
0.78
-
-0.16
0.50
BIL
-0.04
-0.11
-0.16
-
0.06
LQD
0.67
0.72
0.50
0.06
-
Asset
SPY
VNQ
IJS
BIL
LQD
SPY
-
0.75
0.82
-0.01
0.57
VNQ
0.75
-
0.69
-0.09
0.69
IJS
0.82
0.69
-
-0.12
0.42
BIL
-0.01
-0.09
-0.12
-
0.04
LQD
0.57
0.69
0.42
0.04
-
Asset
SPY
VNQ
IJS
BIL
LQD
SPY
-
0.61
0.81
-0.01
0.33
VNQ
0.61
-
0.69
-0.01
0.44
IJS
0.81
0.69
-
-0.03
0.26
BIL
-0.01
-0.01
-0.03
-
0.00
LQD
0.33
0.44
0.26
0.00
-
Asset
SPY
VNQ
IJS
BIL
LQD
SPY
-
0.82
0.92
-0.03
0.20
VNQ
0.82
-
0.83
0.00
0.23
IJS
0.92
0.83
-
-0.02
0.18
BIL
-0.03
0.00
-0.02
-
0.10
LQD
0.20
0.23
0.18
0.10
-

If you want to learn more about historical correlations, you can find out here how the main asset class are correlated to each other.

Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

MARVIN APPEL ONE-DECISION PORTFOLIO
Drawdown periods
Drawdown periods - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 March 1994 - 29 February 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1928 - 29 February 2024 (~96 years)
Inflation Adjusted:
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months Ulcer Index
-31.96% Jun 2007 Feb 2009 21 Oct 2010 20 41 13.28
-16.74% Jan 2022 Sep 2022 9 in progress 17 26 9.35
-13.04% Feb 2020 Mar 2020 2 Nov 2020 8 10 5.40
-8.52% Jun 2011 Sep 2011 4 Jan 2012 4 8 3.61
-8.13% Jul 1998 Aug 1998 2 Dec 1998 4 6 3.91
-7.23% Apr 2002 Sep 2002 6 May 2003 8 14 4.72
-6.99% Sep 2018 Dec 2018 4 Mar 2019 3 7 3.10
-4.76% Apr 2015 Sep 2015 6 Mar 2016 6 12 2.77
-4.65% Apr 2004 Apr 2004 1 Aug 2004 4 5 2.49
-3.90% Mar 1994 Nov 1994 9 Feb 1995 3 12 2.27
-3.58% Aug 2001 Sep 2001 2 Dec 2001 3 5 1.96
-3.49% Feb 2001 Mar 2001 2 Jun 2001 3 5 1.77
-3.21% Aug 2016 Oct 2016 3 Jan 2017 3 6 1.52
-3.16% Jul 1999 Sep 1999 3 Dec 1999 3 6 1.88
-3.06% Feb 2018 Feb 2018 1 Jun 2018 4 5 1.96
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown (DD)
Occurrencies (EOM)
Drawdown (DD)
Range #Num Every (Avg) Frequency Cumulative Frequency
All Time High (DD=0%) 159 2.3 Months 44.04%
 
DD = 0% 44.04%
 
0% < DD <= -5% 141 2.6 Months 39.06%
 
DD <= -5% 83.10%
 
-5% < DD <= -10% 33 10.9 Months 9.14%
 
DD <= -10% 92.24%
 
-10% < DD <= -15% 17 21.2 Months 4.71%
 
DD <= -15% 96.95%
 
-15% < DD <= -20% 2 180.5 Months 0.55%
 
DD <= -20% 97.51%
 
-20% < DD <= -25% 5 72.2 Months 1.39%
 
DD <= -25% 98.89%
 
-25% < DD <= -30% 3 120.3 Months 0.83%
 
DD <= -30% 99.72%
 
-30% < DD <= -35% 1 361.0 Months 0.28%
 
DD <= -35% 100.00%
 
-35% < DD <= -40% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -40% 100.00%
 
-40% < DD <= -45% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -45% 100.00%
 
-45% < DD <= -50% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -50% 100.00%
 
-50% < DD <= -55% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -55% 100.00%
 
-55% < DD <= -60% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -60% 100.00%
 
-60% < DD <= -65% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -65% 100.00%
 
-65% < DD <= -70% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -70% 100.00%
 
-70% < DD <= -100% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -100% 100.00%
 
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months Ulcer Index
-33.86% Jun 2007 Feb 2009 21 Apr 2011 26 47 14.76
-21.11% Jan 2022 Sep 2022 9 in progress 17 26 14.73
-12.79% Feb 2020 Mar 2020 2 Nov 2020 8 10 5.11
-9.41% May 2011 Sep 2011 5 Jan 2012 4 9 4.05
-9.15% Apr 2002 Feb 2003 11 Jul 2003 5 16 5.79
-8.62% Apr 1998 Aug 1998 5 Apr 1999 8 13 3.20
-7.40% Sep 2018 Dec 2018 4 Mar 2019 3 7 3.37
-5.89% Mar 1994 Nov 1994 9 May 1995 6 15 3.16
-5.61% Mar 2015 Aug 2015 6 Mar 2016 7 13 3.27
-4.80% Apr 2004 Apr 2004 1 Oct 2004 6 7 2.57
-4.42% Aug 2005 Oct 2005 3 Jan 2006 3 6 2.19
-4.20% Jul 1999 Sep 1999 3 Apr 2000 7 10 2.57
-3.96% Aug 2001 Sep 2001 2 Dec 2001 3 5 2.11
-3.87% Aug 2016 Oct 2016 3 Feb 2017 4 7 1.92
-3.76% Feb 2001 Mar 2001 2 Jul 2001 4 6 1.85
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown (DD)
Occurrencies (EOM)
Drawdown (DD)
Range #Num Every (Avg) Frequency Cumulative Frequency
All Time High (DD=0%) 126 2.9 Months 34.90%
 
DD = 0% 34.90%
 
0% < DD <= -5% 153 2.4 Months 42.38%
 
DD <= -5% 77.29%
 
-5% < DD <= -10% 36 10.0 Months 9.97%
 
DD <= -10% 87.26%
 
-10% < DD <= -15% 18 20.1 Months 4.99%
 
DD <= -15% 92.24%
 
-15% < DD <= -20% 16 22.6 Months 4.43%
 
DD <= -20% 96.68%
 
-20% < DD <= -25% 7 51.6 Months 1.94%
 
DD <= -25% 98.61%
 
-25% < DD <= -30% 3 120.3 Months 0.83%
 
DD <= -30% 99.45%
 
-30% < DD <= -35% 2 180.5 Months 0.55%
 
DD <= -35% 100.00%
 
-35% < DD <= -40% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -40% 100.00%
 
-40% < DD <= -45% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -45% 100.00%
 
-45% < DD <= -50% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -50% 100.00%
 
-50% < DD <= -55% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -55% 100.00%
 
-55% < DD <= -60% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -60% 100.00%
 
-60% < DD <= -65% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -65% 100.00%
 
-65% < DD <= -70% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -70% 100.00%
 
-70% < DD <= -100% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -100% 100.00%
 
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months Ulcer Index
-47.77% Sep 1929 May 1932 33 Jul 1936 50 83 23.27
-31.96% Jun 2007 Feb 2009 21 Oct 2010 20 41 13.28
-23.43% Aug 1937 Mar 1938 8 Jan 1943 58 66 10.09
-18.44% Dec 1972 Sep 1974 22 Jun 1975 9 31 8.48
-16.74% Jan 2022 Sep 2022 9 in progress 17 26 9.35
-13.04% Feb 2020 Mar 2020 2 Nov 2020 8 10 5.40
-12.38% Sep 1987 Nov 1987 3 Sep 1988 10 13 5.77
-10.40% Dec 1968 Jun 1970 19 Nov 1970 5 24 4.31
-9.56% Dec 1961 Jun 1962 7 Jan 1963 7 14 4.62
-8.87% Jun 1946 Sep 1946 4 Apr 1948 19 23 4.38
-8.52% Jun 2011 Sep 2011 4 Jan 2012 4 8 3.61
-8.13% Jul 1998 Aug 1998 2 Dec 1998 4 6 3.91
-7.50% Jul 1990 Oct 1990 4 Jan 1991 3 7 4.35
-7.23% Apr 2002 Sep 2002 6 May 2003 8 14 4.72
-6.99% Sep 2018 Dec 2018 4 Mar 2019 3 7 3.10
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown (DD)
Occurrencies (EOM)
Drawdown (DD)
Range #Num Every (Avg) Frequency Cumulative Frequency
All Time High (DD=0%) 461 2.5 Months 39.91%
 
DD = 0% 39.91%
 
0% < DD <= -5% 443 2.6 Months 38.35%
 
DD <= -5% 78.27%
 
-5% < DD <= -10% 118 9.8 Months 10.22%
 
DD <= -10% 88.48%
 
-10% < DD <= -15% 53 21.8 Months 4.59%
 
DD <= -15% 93.07%
 
-15% < DD <= -20% 26 44.4 Months 2.25%
 
DD <= -20% 95.32%
 
-20% < DD <= -25% 28 41.3 Months 2.42%
 
DD <= -25% 97.75%
 
-25% < DD <= -30% 7 165.0 Months 0.61%
 
DD <= -30% 98.35%
 
-30% < DD <= -35% 8 144.4 Months 0.69%
 
DD <= -35% 99.05%
 
-35% < DD <= -40% 5 231.0 Months 0.43%
 
DD <= -40% 99.48%
 
-40% < DD <= -45% 4 288.8 Months 0.35%
 
DD <= -45% 99.83%
 
-45% < DD <= -50% 2 577.5 Months 0.17%
 
DD <= -50% 100.00%
 
-50% < DD <= -55% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -55% 100.00%
 
-55% < DD <= -60% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -60% 100.00%
 
-60% < DD <= -65% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -65% 100.00%
 
-65% < DD <= -70% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -70% 100.00%
 
-70% < DD <= -100% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -100% 100.00%
 
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months Ulcer Index
-34.04% Sep 1929 May 1932 33 May 1933 12 45 15.99
-33.86% Jun 2007 Feb 2009 21 Apr 2011 26 47 14.76
-31.70% Dec 1972 Dec 1974 25 Aug 1979 56 81 15.11
-25.75% Mar 1937 Apr 1942 62 Feb 1945 34 96 12.10
-25.14% Jun 1946 Feb 1948 21 Jan 1954 71 92 14.92
-21.11% Jan 2022 Sep 2022 9 in progress 17 26 14.73
-18.25% Dec 1968 Jun 1970 19 Apr 1972 22 41 7.95
-16.44% Jul 1933 Mar 1935 21 Oct 1935 7 28 10.00
-13.26% Sep 1979 Mar 1980 7 Sep 1982 30 37 5.28
-13.22% Sep 1987 Nov 1987 3 Apr 1989 17 20 5.95
-12.79% Feb 2020 Mar 2020 2 Nov 2020 8 10 5.11
-12.63% Sep 1989 Oct 1990 14 Mar 1991 5 19 5.95
-10.25% Dec 1961 Jun 1962 7 Apr 1963 10 17 4.87
-9.41% May 2011 Sep 2011 5 Jan 2012 4 9 4.05
-9.15% Apr 2002 Feb 2003 11 Jul 2003 5 16 5.79
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Drawdown (DD)
Occurrencies (EOM)
Drawdown (DD)
Range #Num Every (Avg) Frequency Cumulative Frequency
All Time High (DD=0%) 295 3.9 Months 25.54%
 
DD = 0% 25.54%
 
0% < DD <= -5% 400 2.9 Months 34.63%
 
DD <= -5% 60.17%
 
-5% < DD <= -10% 215 5.4 Months 18.61%
 
DD <= -10% 78.79%
 
-10% < DD <= -15% 106 10.9 Months 9.18%
 
DD <= -15% 87.97%
 
-15% < DD <= -20% 65 17.8 Months 5.63%
 
DD <= -20% 93.59%
 
-20% < DD <= -25% 56 20.6 Months 4.85%
 
DD <= -25% 98.44%
 
-25% < DD <= -30% 11 105.0 Months 0.95%
 
DD <= -30% 99.39%
 
-30% < DD <= -35% 7 165.0 Months 0.61%
 
DD <= -35% 100.00%
 
-35% < DD <= -40% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -40% 100.00%
 
-40% < DD <= -45% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -45% 100.00%
 
-45% < DD <= -50% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -50% 100.00%
 
-50% < DD <= -55% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -55% 100.00%
 
-55% < DD <= -60% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -60% 100.00%
 
-60% < DD <= -65% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -65% 100.00%
 
-65% < DD <= -70% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -70% 100.00%
 
-70% < DD <= -100% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -100% 100.00%
 

Rolling Returns

( more details)

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

MARVIN APPEL ONE-DECISION PORTFOLIO
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 March 1994 - 29 February 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1928 - 29 February 2024 (~96 years)
Inflation Adjusted:
Swipe left to see all data
Rolling
Period
Worst Period
15th Percentile
50th Percentile
85th Percentile
Best Period
Latest Negative
Periods
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
1Y -26.73 03/2008
02/2009
0.73$ -0.34 0.99$ 7.73 1.07$ 15.42 1.15$ 36.76 04/2009
03/2010
1.36$ 9.54 15.47%
2Y -16.61 03/2007
02/2009
0.69$ 2.17 1.04$ 7.59 1.15$ 11.95 1.25$ 25.43 03/2009
02/2011
1.57$ 1.63 8.61%
3Y -7.87 03/2006
02/2009
0.78$ 3.87 1.12$ 7.05 1.22$ 11.41 1.38$ 18.23 03/2009
02/2012
1.65$ 3.77 6.77%
5Y -1.50 03/2004
02/2009
0.92$ 3.90 1.21$ 7.11 1.41$ 10.00 1.61$ 14.69 03/2009
02/2014
1.98$ 5.81 0.66%
7Y 1.40 03/2002
02/2009
1.10$ 5.06 1.41$ 6.77 1.58$ 8.47 1.76$ 11.50 04/2009
03/2016
2.14$ 5.45 0.00%
10Y 3.02 03/1999
02/2009
1.34$ 5.43 1.69$ 6.49 1.87$ 8.84 2.33$ 10.19 01/1995
12/2004
2.63$ 5.66 0.00%
15Y 4.80 10/2007
09/2022
2.02$ 5.83 2.34$ 6.48 2.56$ 7.22 2.84$ 8.59 03/2009
02/2024
3.44$ 8.59 0.00%
20Y 5.73 11/2003
10/2023
3.04$ 6.21 3.33$ 6.66 3.63$ 7.52 4.25$ 8.26 12/1994
11/2014
4.89$ 5.97 0.00%
30Y 6.99 03/1994
02/2024
7.58$ 6.99 7.58$ 6.99 7.58$ 6.99 7.58$ 6.99 03/1994
02/2024
7.58$ 6.99 0.00%
Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods
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Rolling
Period
Worst Period
15th Percentile
50th Percentile
85th Percentile
Best Period
Latest Negative
Periods
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
1Y -26.74 03/2008
02/2009
0.73$ -2.08 0.97$ 5.20 1.05$ 12.34 1.12$ 33.70 04/2009
03/2010
1.33$ 6.65 19.20%
2Y -18.29 03/2007
02/2009
0.66$ -0.31 0.99$ 5.06 1.10$ 9.49 1.19$ 22.80 03/2009
02/2011
1.50$ -2.59 15.73%
3Y -9.83 03/2006
02/2009
0.73$ 0.13 1.00$ 4.87 1.15$ 8.79 1.28$ 15.47 03/2009
02/2012
1.53$ -1.66 14.46%
5Y -4.03 03/2004
02/2009
0.81$ 1.16 1.05$ 4.81 1.26$ 7.36 1.42$ 12.38 03/2009
02/2014
1.79$ 1.64 4.98%
7Y -1.15 03/2002
02/2009
0.92$ 2.60 1.19$ 4.64 1.37$ 6.12 1.51$ 9.70 04/2009
03/2016
1.91$ 1.92 0.72%
10Y 0.42 03/1999
02/2009
1.04$ 3.06 1.35$ 4.21 1.51$ 6.31 1.84$ 8.10 03/2009
02/2019
2.17$ 2.81 0.00%
15Y 2.37 10/2007
09/2022
1.42$ 3.63 1.70$ 4.20 1.85$ 4.77 2.01$ 5.90 03/2009
02/2024
2.36$ 5.90 0.00%
20Y 3.08 11/2003
10/2023
1.83$ 3.83 2.12$ 4.35 2.34$ 5.17 2.74$ 5.83 02/1995
01/2015
3.10$ 3.33 0.00%
30Y 4.36 03/1994
02/2024
3.59$ 4.36 3.59$ 4.36 3.59$ 4.36 3.59$ 4.36 03/1994
02/2024
3.59$ 4.36 0.00%
Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods
Swipe left to see all data
Rolling
Period
Worst Period
15th Percentile
50th Percentile
85th Percentile
Best Period
Latest Negative
Periods
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
1Y -34.89 07/1931
06/1932
0.65$ -1.17 0.98$ 7.88 1.07$ 16.28 1.16$ 60.03 07/1932
06/1933
1.60$ 9.54 18.55%
2Y -24.62 06/1930
05/1932
0.56$ 1.80 1.03$ 7.45 1.15$ 13.97 1.29$ 25.43 03/2009
02/2011
1.57$ 1.63 10.08%
3Y -17.20 07/1929
06/1932
0.56$ 2.95 1.09$ 7.38 1.23$ 12.35 1.41$ 22.71 07/1982
06/1985
1.84$ 3.77 8.22%
5Y -5.17 04/1928
03/1933
0.76$ 4.07 1.22$ 7.12 1.41$ 11.58 1.72$ 20.24 08/1982
07/1987
2.51$ 5.81 4.02%
7Y -0.37 04/1928
03/1935
0.97$ 4.78 1.38$ 7.11 1.61$ 10.83 2.05$ 18.16 04/1980
03/1987
3.21$ 5.45 0.09%
10Y -0.03 09/1929
08/1939
0.99$ 5.33 1.68$ 6.96 1.95$ 10.96 2.83$ 15.47 01/1975
12/1984
4.21$ 5.66 0.10%
15Y 1.95 09/1929
08/1944
1.33$ 5.74 2.31$ 6.97 2.74$ 11.65 5.22$ 14.71 10/1974
09/1989
7.83$ 8.59 0.00%
20Y 3.03 09/1929
08/1949
1.81$ 6.18 3.31$ 7.22 4.03$ 11.09 8.19$ 13.00 03/1978
02/1998
11.52$ 5.97 0.00%
30Y 4.74 10/1929
09/1959
4.00$ 6.38 6.38$ 8.03 10.15$ 10.45 19.74$ 11.95 01/1975
12/2004
29.54$ 6.99 0.00%
Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods
Swipe left to see all data
Rolling
Period
Worst Period
15th Percentile
50th Percentile
85th Percentile
Best Period
Latest Negative
Periods
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
1Y -27.71 07/1931
06/1932
0.72$ -4.52 0.95$ 4.66 1.04$ 13.18 1.13$ 71.38 07/1932
06/1933
1.71$ 6.65 28.17%
2Y -18.29 03/2007
02/2009
0.66$ -1.53 0.96$ 4.33 1.08$ 10.32 1.21$ 24.85 06/1932
05/1934
1.55$ -2.59 21.66%
3Y -10.63 07/1929
06/1932
0.71$ -0.59 0.98$ 4.26 1.13$ 8.85 1.28$ 18.57 07/1982
06/1985
1.66$ -1.66 17.16%
5Y -5.11 10/1969
09/1974
0.76$ 0.47 1.02$ 4.30 1.23$ 7.45 1.43$ 16.58 08/1982
07/1987
2.15$ 1.64 11.60%
7Y -4.14 10/1967
09/1974
0.74$ 1.17 1.08$ 4.43 1.35$ 7.03 1.60$ 12.67 08/1982
07/1989
2.30$ 1.92 8.68%
10Y -1.86 01/1965
12/1974
0.82$ 1.26 1.13$ 4.10 1.49$ 7.08 1.98$ 10.11 08/1982
07/1992
2.62$ 2.81 5.02%
15Y 0.17 01/1960
12/1974
1.02$ 1.73 1.29$ 4.15 1.84$ 6.58 2.59$ 9.78 08/1982
07/1997
4.05$ 5.90 0.00%
20Y 1.15 01/1955
12/1974
1.25$ 2.36 1.59$ 4.10 2.23$ 6.36 3.43$ 8.29 04/1982
03/2002
4.91$ 3.33 0.00%
30Y 1.95 12/1945
11/1975
1.78$ 3.07 2.47$ 4.04 3.28$ 5.90 5.58$ 7.18 01/1975
12/2004
7.99$ 4.36 0.00%
Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods

If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Marvin Appel One-Decision Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.

Seasonality

In which months is it better to invest in Marvin Appel One-Decision Portfolio?

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.
For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Gain Frequency
0.15
60%
-0.89
40%
-0.81
80%
1.28
80%
-0.15
40%
1.02
80%
2.34
100%
-0.24
60%
-2.63
20%
0.98
60%
3.36
80%
1.85
80%
Best 5.7
2023
1.9
2021
2.3
2021
6.0
2020
2.0
2020
3.6
2023
5.0
2022
1.5
2020
1.3
2019
3.5
2021
6.7
2023
5.2
2023
Worst -3.9
2022
-3.7
2020
-9.7
2020
-4.5
2022
-2.0
2019
-4.6
2022
0.9
2019
-3.1
2022
-6.2
2022
-2.1
2023
-1.0
2021
-2.8
2022
Monthly Seasonality over the period Feb 1928 - Feb 2024
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Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Gain Frequency
0.59
70%
-0.34
60%
0.13
80%
0.67
80%
0.35
70%
0.86
80%
1.71
90%
-0.12
50%
-1.56
20%
0.67
60%
2.23
90%
0.73
70%
Best 5.9
2019
1.9
2021
5.0
2016
6.0
2020
2.0
2020
3.6
2023
5.0
2022
2.3
2014
1.3
2019
3.5
2014
6.7
2023
5.2
2023
Worst -3.9
2022
-3.7
2020
-9.7
2020
-4.5
2022
-2.0
2019
-4.6
2022
-0.8
2014
-3.1
2015
-6.2
2022
-3.5
2018
-1.0
2021
-4.3
2018
Monthly Seasonality over the period Feb 1928 - Feb 2024
Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Gain Frequency
1.00
70%
0.23
62%
0.57
71%
0.89
68%
0.17
66%
0.80
66%
1.12
70%
0.65
61%
-0.28
51%
0.28
64%
0.81
66%
1.23
77%
Best 8.2
1975
6.5
1931
5.0
2016
19.7
1933
9.1
1933
11.8
1938
14.3
1932
17.0
1932
6.9
1939
7.1
1982
6.9
1928
6.2
2008
Worst -6.8
2009
-9.6
1933
-13.4
1938
-8.8
1932
-11.6
1940
-8.0
1930
-5.7
1933
-6.1
1998
-13.1
1931
-12.1
2008
-5.9
1929
-4.9
1931
Monthly Seasonality over the period Feb 1928 - Feb 2024

Monthly Returns

This section provides a visual/tabular representation of the performance variability in the Marvin Appel One-Decision Portfolio over time. It illustrates the distribution of monthly returns, showcasing the range and frequency of positive and negative returns.

MARVIN APPEL ONE-DECISION PORTFOLIO
Monthly Returns Distribution
Data Source: 1 March 1994 - 29 February 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1928 - 29 February 2024 (~96 years)
250 Positive Months (69%) - 110 Negative Months (31%)
760 Positive Months (66%) - 394 Negative Months (34%)
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(Scroll down to see all data)
Investment Returns, up to December 2007, have been derived using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.
You can find additional information on extended Data Sources here.

In particular, the series derived from equivalent datasets are:
  • SPY - SPDR S&P 500 (SPY), up to December 1993
  • VNQ - Vanguard Real Estate (VNQ), up to December 2004
  • IJS - iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value (IJS), up to December 2000
  • BIL - SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill (BIL), up to December 2007
  • LQD - iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD), up to December 2002

Portfolio efficiency

The following portfolios granted a higher return over 30 Years and a less severe drawdown at the same time.

Swipe left to see all data
30 Years Stats (%)
% Allocation
Portfolio Author Return Dev.Std Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm
Shield Strategy Aim Ways +8.74 8.84 -19.36 42 38 20
Stocks/Bonds 60/40 +8.22 9.62 -30.55 60 40 0
Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Momentum +8.06 7.02 -21.11 40 60 0
Couch Potato Scott Burns +8.04 8.75 -27.04 50 50 0
Gold Pivot Ptf Aim Ways +7.76 8.20 -19.49 22 44 34
In Saecula Saeculorum Fulvio Marchese +7.72 7.83 -20.39 45 45 10
Golden Butterfly Tyler +7.56 7.73 -17.79 40 40 20
Aim comfortable trip Aim Ways +7.42 7.59 -20.15 40 45 15
All Weather Portfolio Ray Dalio +7.34 7.40 -20.58 30 55 15
Edge Select Moderate Merrill Lynch +7.27 8.96 -29.58 53 47 0
Marc Faber Portfolio Marc Faber +7.25 9.66 -28.82 50 25 25
Robo Advisor 50 Betterment +7.19 9.28 -30.72 49.9 50.1 0
Sandwich Portfolio Bob Clyatt +7.03 8.32 -28.96 55 45 0
Stocks/Bonds 40/60 +7.00 6.99 -19.17 40 60 0
PISI Portfolio Davide Pisicchio +7.00 6.48 -18.36 30 60 10
One-Decision Portfolio Marvin Appel +6.99 8.42 -31.96 50 50 0

Here's a list containing the Best Classic Portfolios, with the highest returns over 30 Years and Medium Risk categorization.

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30 Years Stats (%)
% Allocation
Portfolio Author Return Dev.Std Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm
Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Momentum +8.06 7.02 -21.11 40 60 0
Couch Potato Scott Burns +8.04 8.75 -27.04 50 50 0
All Weather Portfolio Ray Dalio +7.34 7.40 -20.58 30 55 15
Robo Advisor 50 Betterment +7.19 9.28 -30.72 49.9 50.1 0
Stocks/Bonds 40/60 +7.00 6.99 -19.17 40 60 0
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