Bogleheads Three Funds Portfolio vs Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio Portfolio Comparison

Simulation Settings
Period: January 1976 - July 2025 (~50 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 31 July 2025
Initial Amount: 1$
Rebalancing: at every Jan 1st
Currency: USD
Inflation: US
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Results
30 Years
(1995/08 - 2025/07)
All Data
(1976/01 - 2025/07)
Inflation Adjusted:
Bogleheads Three Funds Portfolio
1.00$
Invested Capital
August 1995
10.07$
Final Capital
July 2025
8.00%
Yearly Return
12.43%
Std Deviation
-43.68%
Max Drawdown
42months
Recovery Period
1.00$
Invested Capital
August 1995
4.78$
Final Capital
July 2025
5.35%
Yearly Return
12.43%
Std Deviation
-44.61%
Max Drawdown
63months
Recovery Period
1.00$
Invested Capital
January 1976
121.57$
Final Capital
July 2025
10.17%
Yearly Return
12.28%
Std Deviation
-43.68%
Max Drawdown
42months
Recovery Period
1.00$
Invested Capital
January 1976
21.02$
Final Capital
July 2025
6.33%
Yearly Return
12.28%
Std Deviation
-44.61%
Max Drawdown
63months
Recovery Period
Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio
1.00$
Invested Capital
August 1995
11.37$
Final Capital
July 2025
8.44%
Yearly Return
15.77%
Std Deviation
-57.21%
Max Drawdown
63months
Recovery Period
1.00$
Invested Capital
August 1995
5.40$
Final Capital
July 2025
5.78%
Yearly Return
15.77%
Std Deviation
-57.92%
Max Drawdown
71months
Recovery Period
1.00$
Invested Capital
January 1976
229.81$
Final Capital
July 2025
11.59%
Yearly Return
15.29%
Std Deviation
-57.21%
Max Drawdown
63months
Recovery Period
1.00$
Invested Capital
January 1976
39.73$
Final Capital
July 2025
7.71%
Yearly Return
15.29%
Std Deviation
-57.92%
Max Drawdown
71months
Recovery Period

As of July 2025, in the previous 30 Years, the Bogleheads Three Funds Portfolio obtained a 8.00% compound annual return, with a 12.43% standard deviation. It suffered a maximum drawdown of -43.68% that required 42 months to be recovered.

As of July 2025, in the previous 30 Years, the Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio obtained a 8.44% compound annual return, with a 15.77% standard deviation. It suffered a maximum drawdown of -57.21% that required 63 months to be recovered.

Disclaimer: The simulations on this website are provided in good faith but should NOT be taken as investment advice. We are not liable for any errors or actions based on this information. The authors of the website are not affiliated with the portfolio creators, who are the sole owners of their intellectual property. The translation of asset allocations into ETFs is based on the interpretation of LazyPortfolioETF.com and may not exactly reflect the original intent of the portfolio creators. Content is for informational, educational, illustrative, and entertainment purposes only.
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Asset Allocations and ETFs

The compared portfolios have the following asset allocations.

Bogleheads Three Funds Portfolio
Weight
(%)		 Ticker Name
50.00
VTI
Vanguard Total Stock Market
30.00
VEU
Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US
20.00
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio
Weight
(%)		 Ticker Name
10.00
DLS
WisdomTree International SmallCp Div
10.00
EEM
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets
10.00
IJR
iShares Core S&P Small-Cap
10.00
IJS
iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value
10.00
SPY
SPDR S&P 500
10.00
VTV
Vanguard Value
10.00
VEA
Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets
10.00
SCZ
iShares MSCI EAFE Small-Cap
10.00
EFV
iShares MSCI EAFE Value
10.00
VNQ
Vanguard Real Estate
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Portfolio Returns as of Jul 31, 2025

Returns are calculated in USD, assuming:
  • no fees or capital gain taxes.
  • rebalancing: at every Jan 1st.
  • dividend reinvestment, when applicable.
Return Comparison
Capital Growth
30 Years
(1995/08 - 2025/07)
All Data
(1976/01 - 2025/07)
Inflation Adjusted:
Swipe left to see all data
Initial Amount $ Final Amount $ Total Return (%) Annualized (%)
Bogleheads Three Funds
Bogleheads 		1 $ 10.07 $ 907.26% 8.00%
Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy
Paul Merriman 		1 $ 11.37 $ 1 037.42% 8.44%
Aug 1995 Jul 2025

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Initial Amount $ Final Amount $ Total Return (%) Annualized (%)
Bogleheads Three Funds
Bogleheads 		1 $ 4.78 $ 377.97% 5.35%
Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy
Paul Merriman 		1 $ 5.40 $ 439.74% 5.78%
Aug 1995 Jul 2025

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Initial Amount $ Final Amount $ Total Return (%) Annualized (%)
Bogleheads Three Funds
Bogleheads 		1 $ 121.57 $ 12 057.14% 10.17%
Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy
Paul Merriman 		1 $ 229.81 $ 22 880.88% 11.59%
Jan 1976 Jul 2025

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Initial Amount $ Final Amount $ Total Return (%) Annualized (%)
Bogleheads Three Funds
Bogleheads 		1 $ 21.02 $ 2 001.90% 6.33%
Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy
Paul Merriman 		1 $ 39.73 $ 3 873.27% 7.71%
Jan 1976 Jul 2025

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Return (%) as of Jul 31, 2025
YTD
(7M) 		1M 6M 1Y 5Y 10Y 30Y MAX
(~50Y)
https://www.lazyportfolioetf.com/wp-content/themes/dynamico-child/img/author/avatar_bogleheads.webp Three Funds
Bogleheads 		9.90 0.76 7.05 13.02 10.24 8.85 8.00 10.17
https://www.lazyportfolioetf.com/wp-content/themes/dynamico-child/img/author/avatar_paul_merriman.webp Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy
Paul Merriman 		10.95 0.33 7.80 10.14 10.97 7.76 8.44 11.59
Returns over 1 year are annualized.
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Portfolio Metrics as of Jul 31, 2025

The following metrics, updated as of 31 July 2025, provide an overview of performance and risk, with the best value in each row highlighted within the table.

METRIC COMPARISON
Period: 1 August 2024 - 31 July 2025 (1 year)
Period: 1 August 2020 - 31 July 2025 (5 years)
Period: 1 August 2015 - 31 July 2025 (10 years)
Period: 1 August 1995 - 31 July 2025 (30 years)
Period: 1 January 1976 - 31 July 2025 (~50 years)
1 Year
5 Years
10 Years
30 Years
All (1976/01 - 2025/07)
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Three Funds Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy
Author Bogleheads Paul Merriman
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks 80% 100%
Fixed Income 20% 0%
Commodities 0% 0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%) 13.02 10.14
Infl. Adjusted (%) 10.19 7.38
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -2.75 -4.57
Start to Recovery (months) 3 6
Longest Drawdown Depth (%) -2.68 -4.57
Start to Recovery (months) 3 6
Longest Negative Period (months) 7 8
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%) 8.41 9.66
Sharpe Ratio 1.01 0.58
Sortino Ratio 1.34 0.75
Ulcer Index 1.36 2.09
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 1.55 1.05
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 4.73 2.22
Metrics calculated over the period 1 August 2024 - 31 July 2025
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Three Funds Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy
Author Bogleheads Paul Merriman
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks 80% 100%
Fixed Income 20% 0%
Commodities 0% 0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%) 10.24 10.97
Infl. Adjusted (%) 5.52 6.22
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -23.18 -24.70
Start to Recovery (months) 26 27
Longest Drawdown Depth (%) -23.18 -24.70
Start to Recovery (months) 26 27
Longest Negative Period (months) 34 34
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%) 13.03 15.72
Sharpe Ratio 0.58 0.52
Sortino Ratio 0.78 0.74
Ulcer Index 7.90 7.98
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 0.79 0.70
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 0.44 0.44
Metrics calculated over the period 1 August 2020 - 31 July 2025
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Three Funds Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy
Author Bogleheads Paul Merriman
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks 80% 100%
Fixed Income 20% 0%
Commodities 0% 0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%) 8.85 7.76
Infl. Adjusted (%) 5.62 4.56
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -23.18 -27.54
Start to Recovery (months) 26 11
Longest Drawdown Depth (%) -23.18 -24.70
Start to Recovery (months) 26 27
Longest Negative Period (months) 34 44
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%) 12.42 15.58
Sharpe Ratio 0.56 0.38
Sortino Ratio 0.75 0.50
Ulcer Index 6.36 7.74
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 0.71 0.50
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 0.38 0.28
Metrics calculated over the period 1 August 2015 - 31 July 2025
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Three Funds Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy
Author Bogleheads Paul Merriman
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks 80% 100%
Fixed Income 20% 0%
Commodities 0% 0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%) 8.00 8.44
Infl. Adjusted (%) 5.35 5.78
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -43.68 -57.21
Start to Recovery (months) 42 63
Longest Drawdown Depth (%) -33.38 -57.21
Start to Recovery (months) 57 63
Longest Negative Period (months) 118 68
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%) 12.43 15.77
Sharpe Ratio 0.46 0.39
Sortino Ratio 0.60 0.51
Ulcer Index 10.83 12.16
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 0.64 0.54
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 0.18 0.15
Metrics calculated over the period 1 August 1995 - 31 July 2025
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Three Funds Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy
Author Bogleheads Paul Merriman
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks 80% 100%
Fixed Income 20% 0%
Commodities 0% 0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%) 10.17 11.59
Infl. Adjusted (%) 6.33 7.71
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -43.68 -57.21
Start to Recovery (months) 42 63
Longest Drawdown Depth (%) -33.38 -57.21
Start to Recovery (months) 57 63
Longest Negative Period (months) 118 68
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%) 12.28 15.29
Sharpe Ratio 0.48 0.48
Sortino Ratio 0.64 0.63
Ulcer Index 8.86 10.13
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 0.83 0.76
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 0.23 0.20
Metrics calculated over the period 1 January 1976 - 31 July 2025
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Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

DRAWDOWN COMPARISON
Period: 1 August 1995 - 31 July 2025 (30 years)
Period: 1 January 1976 - 31 July 2025 (~50 years)
30 Years
(1995/08 - 2025/07)

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Three Funds Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy
Drawdown
(%) 		Recovery
(#Months)		 From
To		 Drawdown
(%) 		Recovery
(#Months)		 From
To
-57.21 63 Nov 2007
Jan 2013
-43.68 42 Nov 2007
Apr 2011
-33.38 57 Apr 2000
Dec 2004
-27.54 11 Jan 2020
Nov 2020
-24.70 27 Jan 2022
Mar 2024
-23.18 26 Jan 2022
Feb 2024
-20.46 13 Apr 1998
Apr 1999
-20.10 30 Feb 2001
Jul 2003
-17.01 7 Jan 2020
Jul 2020
-15.77 17 May 2011
Sep 2012
-15.11 22 Feb 2018
Nov 2019
-12.46 5 Jul 1998
Nov 1998
-12.10 14 Jun 2015
Jul 2016
-10.53 15 Feb 2018
Apr 2019
-9.88 14 Jun 2015
Jul 2016

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Three Funds Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy
Drawdown
(%) 		Recovery
(#Months)		 From
To		 Drawdown
(%) 		Recovery
(#Months)		 From
To
-57.21 63 Nov 2007
Jan 2013
-43.68 42 Nov 2007
Apr 2011
-33.38 57 Apr 2000
Dec 2004
-27.54 11 Jan 2020
Nov 2020
-25.26 17 Sep 1987
Jan 1989
-24.70 27 Jan 2022
Mar 2024
-23.18 26 Jan 2022
Feb 2024
-21.87 17 Jan 1990
May 1991
-20.46 13 Apr 1998
Apr 1999
-20.10 30 Feb 2001
Jul 2003
-19.82 18 Jun 1981
Nov 1982
-19.21 17 Sep 1987
Jan 1989
-17.01 7 Jan 2020
Jul 2020
-15.77 17 May 2011
Sep 2012
-15.31 14 Jan 1990
Feb 1991

Rolling Returns

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You can explore the Rolling Returns for a single portfolio, or check the return differential, by switching on "Head To Head" toggle.

Rolling Returns Comparison
Annualized Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 January 1976 - 31 July 2025 (~50 years)


Head To Head (Ptf 1 vs Ptf 2):
US Inflation Adjusted:

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Yearly Returns

For each year, the following table provides the return and intra-year drawdown. The highlighted returns represent the highest values for that specific year.

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Three Funds Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy
Year Return
(%)		 Drawdown
(%)		 Return
(%)		 Drawdown
(%)
2025
 9.90 -2.75 10.95 -1.54
2024
 13.85 -3.44 8.12 -4.57
2023
 18.86 -8.74 15.12 -11.49
2022
 -17.06 -23.18 -15.37 -24.70
2021
 14.95 -3.53 19.37 -3.67
2020
 15.39 -17.01 6.40 -27.54
2019
 23.65 -4.68 23.62 -6.09
2018
 -6.89 -10.53 -11.86 -15.11
2017
 19.54 0.00 21.78 -0.19
2016
 8.39 -4.82 12.36 -6.13
2015
 -1.14 -8.74 -1.21 -10.45
2014
 6.07 -3.01 3.86 -4.78
2013
 20.56 -2.36 24.33 -3.16
2012
 14.53 -7.09 18.52 -9.57
2011
 -2.14 -15.77 -6.03 -21.49
2010
 13.50 -9.82 17.95 -12.96
2009
 26.45 -15.70 32.93 -22.58
2008
 -30.15 -33.07 -39.47 -43.68
2007
 8.73 -4.35 3.86 -8.69
2006
 16.69 -3.08 25.26 -4.59
2005
 8.30 -3.34 14.55 -4.36
2004
 13.49 -2.83 24.50 -4.95
2003
 28.27 -3.88 45.35 -4.40
2002
 -13.11 -18.90 -8.70 -19.82
2001
 -9.84 -18.61 -4.24 -16.27
2000
 -7.69 -11.84 -0.62 -8.65
1999
 20.73 -2.88 20.93 -3.33
1998
 18.03 -12.46 4.55 -20.46
1997
 17.15 -4.61 7.53 -6.22
1996
 12.60 -3.77 14.79 -4.92
1995
 22.72 -1.03 16.47 -2.82
1994
 2.31 -4.84 -2.37 -7.70
1993
 16.23 -4.16 30.62 -3.22
1992
 1.54 -4.66 7.12 -3.87
1991
 22.09 -4.27 32.16 -5.51
1990
 -8.74 -15.31 -15.66 -21.87
1989
 20.64 -2.08 27.73 -3.75
1988
 17.83 -3.20 25.20 -2.71
1987
 10.76 -19.21 6.29 -25.26
1986
 29.32 -4.89 33.82 -4.97
1985
 35.27 -2.34 40.18 -2.65
1984
 4.95 -7.57 7.34 -6.12
1983
 19.49 -2.98 26.91 -2.38
1982
 16.05 -10.52 9.42 -16.41
1981
 -1.38 -10.40 -0.23 -10.99
1980
 24.15 -10.43 24.58 -12.52
1979
 15.99 -7.03 19.34 -9.15
1978
 13.84 -7.76 21.17 -9.46
1977
 3.33 -3.91 13.48 -1.92
1976
 16.66 -2.66 22.54 -3.46
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