Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns

Data Source: from January 1976 to April 2024 (~48 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 30 April 2024
Live Update: May 23 2024, 11:00AM Eastern Time Currency: USD
PORTFOLIO • LIVE PERFORMANCE (USD currency)
0.55%
1 Day
May 23 2024, 11:00AM Eastern Time
3.95%
Current Month
May 2024

The Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio is a Very High Risk portfolio and can be implemented with 10 ETFs.

It's exposed for 100% on the Stock Market.

In the last 30 Years, the Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio obtained a 8.15% compound annual return, with a 15.73% standard deviation.

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Asset Allocation and ETFs

The Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio has the following asset allocation:

100% Stocks
0% Fixed Income
0% Commodities

The Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio can be implemented with the following ETFs:

Weight
(%)
Investment Themes (Orig.Currency) ETF
Ticker
ETF
Currency
ETF Name
10.00 Equity, Developed Markets, Small Cap, Value (USD)
DLS
USD WisdomTree International SmallCp Div
10.00 Equity, Emerging Markets, Large Cap (USD)
EEM
USD iShares MSCI Emerging Markets
10.00 Equity, U.S., Small Cap (USD)
IJR
USD iShares Core S&P Small-Cap
10.00 Equity, U.S., Small Cap, Value (USD)
IJS
USD iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value
10.00 Equity, U.S., Large Cap (USD)
SPY
USD SPDR S&P 500
10.00 Equity, U.S., Large Cap, Value (USD)
VTV
USD Vanguard Value
10.00 Equity, EAFE, Large Cap (USD)
VEA
USD Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets
10.00 Equity, EAFE, Small Cap (USD)
SCZ
USD iShares MSCI EAFE Small-Cap
10.00 Equity, EAFE, Large Cap, Value (USD)
EFV
USD iShares MSCI EAFE Value
10.00 Real Estate, U.S. (USD)
VNQ
USD Vanguard Real Estate

Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

Portfolio and ETF Returns as of Apr 30, 2024

The Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.

Returns are calculated in USD, assuming: May 2024 return is calculated on the hypothesis of a newly built portfolio, with the starting asset allocation.
PAUL MERRIMAN ULTIMATE BUY AND HOLD STRATEGY PORTFOLIO
Consolidated returns as of 30 April 2024
Live Update: May 23 2024, 11:00AM Eastern Time
Swipe left to see all data
  Chg (%) Return (%) Return (%) as of Apr 30, 2024
  1 Day Time ET(*) May 2024 1M 6M 1Y 5Y 10Y 30Y MAX
(~48Y)
Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio -0.55 3.95 -3.86 16.09 9.11 5.87 6.27 8.15 11.48
US Inflation Adjusted return -4.16 13.99 5.56 1.62 3.33 5.46 7.56
Components
DLS
USD WisdomTree International SmallCp Div -0.16 10:59AM, May 23 2024 2.91 -2.18 16.12 5.44 2.53 3.29 6.40 9.89
EEM
USD iShares MSCI Emerging Markets -0.51 11:00AM, May 23 2024 4.90 -0.22 13.84 7.61 0.91 2.14 4.84 7.44
IJR
USD iShares Core S&P Small-Cap -0.96 11:00AM, May 23 2024 3.78 -5.55 18.10 12.63 7.02 8.43 9.90 12.99
IJS
USD iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value -1.27 10:59AM, May 23 2024 3.42 -6.50 15.66 6.86 6.19 7.28 10.18 14.42
SPY
USD SPDR S&P 500 -0.14 11:00AM, May 23 2024 5.40 -4.03 20.90 22.45 13.11 12.31 10.35 11.48
VTV
USD Vanguard Value -0.70 11:00AM, May 23 2024 3.07 -3.91 18.08 14.28 9.90 9.90 9.48 11.84
VEA
USD Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets -0.13 10:59AM, May 23 2024 4.20 -3.41 16.90 8.25 6.05 4.52 4.92 8.54
SCZ
USD iShares MSCI EAFE Small-Cap -0.16 10:59AM, May 23 2024 4.10 -3.41 15.25 3.67 3.34 4.27 6.45 9.92
EFV
USD iShares MSCI EAFE Value -0.29 11:00AM, May 23 2024 3.87 -1.71 15.35 11.47 5.40 2.91 5.36 9.54
VNQ
USD Vanguard Real Estate -1.14 10:59AM, May 23 2024 3.82 -7.94 10.51 -1.24 1.82 4.89 8.45 11.58
Returns over 1 year are annualized | Available data source: since Jan 1976
(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)
US Inflation is updated to Apr 2024. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 3.36% , 5Y: 4.18% , 10Y: 2.85% , 30Y: 2.55%

In 2023, the Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio granted a 3.05% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.

Capital Growth as of Apr 30, 2024

An investment of 1$, since May 1994, now would be worth 10.49$, with a total return of 948.59% (8.15% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 4.93$, with a net total return of 392.81% (5.46% annualized).
An investment of 1$, since January 1976, now would be worth 190.95$, with a total return of 18995.28% (11.48% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 33.90$, with a net total return of 3289.76% (7.56% annualized).

Portfolio Metrics as of Apr 30, 2024

Metrics of Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio, updated as of 30 April 2024.

Metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:
PAUL MERRIMAN ULTIMATE BUY AND HOLD STRATEGY PORTFOLIO
Advanced Metrics
Data Source: 1 January 1976 - 30 April 2024 (~48 years)
Swipe left to see all data
Metrics as of Apr 30, 2024
1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
(~48Y)
Investment Return (%) -3.86 2.01 16.09 9.11 0.78 5.87 6.27 7.81 8.15 11.48
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) details -4.16 0.86 13.99 5.56 -4.47 1.62 3.33 5.08 5.46 7.56
US Inflation (%) 0.31 1.14 1.85 3.36 5.50 4.18 2.85 2.60 2.55 3.64
Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized.
DRAWDOWN
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -11.48 -24.70 -27.54 -27.54 -57.21 -57.21 -57.21
Start to Recovery (# months) details 5 27 11 11 63 63 63
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 08 2022 01 2020 01 2020 01 2007 11 2007 11 2007 11
Start to Bottom (# months) 3 9 3 3 16 16 16
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2022 09 2020 03 2020 03 2009 02 2009 02 2009 02
Bottom to End (# months) 2 18 8 8 47 47 47
End (yyyy mm) 2023 12 2024 03 2020 11 2020 11 2013 01 2013 01 2013 01
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same as
deepest

same as
deepest
-24.70 -24.70
same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest
Start to Recovery (# months) details 27 27
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 08 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2007 11 2007 11 2007 11
Start to Bottom (# months) 3 9 9 9 16 16 16
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2009 02 2009 02 2009 02
Bottom to End (# months) 2 18 18 18 47 47 47
End (yyyy mm) 2023 12 2024 03 2024 03 2024 03 2013 01 2013 01 2013 01
Longest negative period (# months) details 6 35* 35* 44 68 68 68
Period Start (yyyy mm) 2023 05 2021 06 2021 06 2016 08 2006 02 1997 08 1997 08
Period End (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2024 04 2024 04 2020 03 2011 09 2003 03 2003 03
Annualized Return (%) -11.67 -0.02 -0.02 -0.04 -0.22 -0.14 -0.14
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -12.32 -29.80 -29.80 -29.80 -57.92 -57.92 -57.92
Start to Recovery (# months) details 5 35* 35* 35* 71 71 71
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 08 2021 06 2021 06 2021 06 2007 11 2007 11 2007 11
Start to Bottom (# months) 3 16 16 16 16 16 16
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2009 02 2009 02 2009 02
Bottom to End (# months) 2 19 19 19 55 55 55
End (yyyy mm) 2023 12 - - - 2013 09 2013 09 2013 09
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest
Start to Recovery (# months) details
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 08 2021 06 2021 06 2021 06 2007 11 2007 11 2007 11
Start to Bottom (# months) 3 16 16 16 16 16 16
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2009 02 2009 02 2009 02
Bottom to End (# months) 2 19 19 19 55 55 55
End (yyyy mm) 2023 12 - - - 2013 09 2013 09 2013 09
Longest negative period (# months) details 9* 36* 54 75 78 139 139
Period Start (yyyy mm) 2023 08 2021 05 2019 05 2017 08 2006 05 1997 08 1997 08
Period End (yyyy mm) 2024 04 2024 04 2023 10 2023 10 2012 10 2009 02 2009 02
Annualized Return (%) -0.07 -4.47 -1.12 -0.15 -0.08 -0.10 -0.10
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
RISK INDICATORS
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Standard Deviation (%) 16.25 16.86 18.82 15.41 16.81 15.73 15.40
Sharpe Ratio 0.24 -0.11 0.21 0.32 0.38 0.37 0.49
Sortino Ratio 0.35 -0.16 0.28 0.43 0.50 0.49 0.64
Ulcer Index 4.43 10.15 10.01 7.85 14.09 12.17 10.26
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 0.56 0.05 0.31 0.41 0.46 0.52 0.75
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 0.79 0.03 0.21 0.23 0.14 0.14 0.20
% Positive Months details 50% 47% 55% 60% 62% 62% 64%
Positive Months 6 17 33 73 150 225 374
Negative Months 6 19 27 47 90 135 206
LONG TERM RETURNS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 6.27 14.47 14.47 21.79
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 4.41 3.22 3.22
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 3.33 12.49 12.49 16.31
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 2.43 0.62 0.62
ROLLING PERIODS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Over the latest 30Y
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 68.65 33.96 24.86 14.47 9.96 8.15
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -49.19 -17.09 -3.83 3.22 6.29
% Positive Periods 71% 87% 93% 100% 100% 100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 67.22 22.51 14.45 8.69 7.34 7.10
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - 0.83 4.24 5.66
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 65.10 30.33 21.32 12.49 7.56 5.46
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -49.20 -18.85 -6.31 0.62 4.13
% Positive Periods 67% 79% 86% 100% 100% 100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 67.22 22.51 14.45 8.69 7.34 7.10
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - 0.83 4.24 5.66
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Over all the available data source (Jan 1976 - Apr 2024)
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 68.65 40.49 34.09 21.79 16.46 14.98
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -49.19 -17.09 -3.83 3.22 6.29 7.64
% Positive Periods 77% 92% 96% 100% 100% 100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 67.22 22.51 14.45 8.69 7.34 6.55
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - 0.83 4.24 5.11
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 65.10 36.38 30.01 16.31 11.18 10.34
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -49.20 -18.85 -6.31 0.62 3.78 4.99
% Positive Periods 71% 85% 92% 100% 100% 100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 67.22 22.51 14.45 8.69 7.34 6.55
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - 0.83 4.24 5.11
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Terms and Definitions
  • Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio.
  • Deepest/Longest Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. The deepest (or maximum) drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained. The longest drawdown is the period observed from a peak to the subsequent peak with the greatest duration.
  • Longest negative period: it's the maximum period for which an overall negative return has been observed.
  • Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean.
  • Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return.
  • Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation).
  • Ulcer Index: it's a measure of downside risk that quantifies the depth and duration of drawdowns in an investment portfolio.
  • Best/Worst 10Y returns: the best and the worst 10-year return over a time frame.
  • Rolling Returns: N-year returns over a time frame, calculated over all the available data source (best, worst, % of positive returns). Each rolling period, longer than the longest negative period, yielded a non-negative minimum return.
  • Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money in any case (money amount withdrawal).
    For instance: Your initial invested capital is 100.000$; withdrawal rate (annualized) is 4%. This means that, in the first month, you will withdraw 100.000 * 4% * 1/12 = 333.33$. The second month, you’ll withdraw 333.33$ plus the inflation monthly rate. You’ll continue adjusting your withdraw monthly for inflation.
  • Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too.

Portfolio Components Correlation

Correlation measures to what degree the returns of the two assets move in relation to each other.

Correlation coefficient is a numerical value between -1 and +1. If one variable goes up by a certain amount, the correlation coefficient indicates which way the other variable moves and by how much.
Asset correlations are calculated based on monthly returns.
COMPONENTS MONTHLY CORRELATIONS
Monthly correlations as of 30 April 2024
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If you want to learn more about historical correlations, you can find out here how the main asset class are correlated to each other.

Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

PAUL MERRIMAN ULTIMATE BUY AND HOLD STRATEGY PORTFOLIO
Drawdown periods
Drawdown periods - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 May 1994 - 30 April 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1976 - 30 April 2024 (~48 years)
Inflation Adjusted:
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Rolling Returns

( more details)

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

PAUL MERRIMAN ULTIMATE BUY AND HOLD STRATEGY PORTFOLIO
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 May 1994 - 30 April 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1976 - 30 April 2024 (~48 years)
Inflation Adjusted:

If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.

Seasonality

In which months is it better to invest in Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio?

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.
For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
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Monthly Returns

This section provides a visual/tabular representation of the performance variability in the Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio over time. It illustrates the distribution of monthly returns, showcasing the range and frequency of positive and negative returns.

PAUL MERRIMAN ULTIMATE BUY AND HOLD STRATEGY PORTFOLIO
Monthly Returns Distribution
Data Source: 1 May 1994 - 30 April 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1976 - 30 April 2024 (~48 years)
225 Positive Months (63%) - 135 Negative Months (38%)
374 Positive Months (64%) - 206 Negative Months (36%)
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(Scroll down to see all data)
Investment Returns, up to December 2007, have been derived using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.
You can find additional information on extended Data Sources here.

In particular, the series derived from equivalent datasets are:
  • DLS - WisdomTree International SmallCp Div (DLS), up to December 2006
  • EEM - iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM), up to December 2003
  • IJR - iShares Core S&P Small-Cap (IJR), up to December 2000
  • IJS - iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value (IJS), up to December 2000
  • SPY - SPDR S&P 500 (SPY), up to December 1993
  • VTV - Vanguard Value (VTV), up to December 2004
  • VEA - Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets (VEA), up to December 2007
  • SCZ - iShares MSCI EAFE Small-Cap (SCZ), up to December 2007
  • EFV - iShares MSCI EAFE Value (EFV), up to December 2005
  • VNQ - Vanguard Real Estate (VNQ), up to December 2004

Portfolio efficiency

The following portfolios granted a higher return over 30 Years and a less severe drawdown at the same time.

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In the following table, you can compare the current portfolio with a list of famous portfolios. Metrics are calculated over the last 30 Years.

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