Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns

Simulation Settings

Period: January 1976 - April 2025 (~49 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 30 April 2025
Live Update available for May 2025

Rebalancing: at every Jan 1^st

Currency: USD

Inflation: US

(Change Settings)

Results

30 Years

All (since January 1976)

Live

Inflation Adjusted:

Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio

1.00$
Initial Capital
May 1995
11.13$
Final Capital
April 2025
8.36%
Yearly Return
15.76%
Std Deviation
-57.21%
Max Drawdown
63months
Recovery Period

1.00$
Initial Capital
May 1995
5.27$
Final Capital
April 2025
5.70%
Yearly Return
15.76%
Std Deviation
-57.92%
Max Drawdown
71months
Recovery Period

1.00$
Initial Capital
January 1976
210.74$
Final Capital
April 2025
11.46%
Yearly Return
15.32%
Std Deviation
-57.21%
Max Drawdown
63months
Recovery Period

1.00$
Initial Capital
January 1976
36.57$
Final Capital
April 2025
7.57%
Yearly Return
15.32%
Std Deviation
-57.92%
Max Drawdown
71months
Recovery Period

---

1 Day: ---

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Month: ---

The Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio can be implemented with 10 ETFs. This portfolio has a very high risk, meaning it can experience significant fluctuations in value. It is suitable for investors with a high risk tolerance who are seeking substantial returns and can withstand large drawdowns.

The portfolio asset allocation is: 100% on the Stock Market, 0% on Fixed Income, 0% on Commodities. In general, bonds are useful for mitigating overall portfolio risk, especially if they are issued by national entities or highly reliable companies. This portfolio has a 0% allocation to bonds, leading to its classification as very high risk.

As of April 2025, in the previous 30 Years, the Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio obtained a 8.36% compound annual return, with a 15.76% standard deviation. It suffered a maximum drawdown of -57.21% that required 63 months to be recovered.

Disclaimer: The simulations on this website are provided in good faith but should NOT be taken as investment advice. We are not liable for any errors or actions based on this information. The authors of the website are not affiliated with the portfolio creators, who are the sole owners of their intellectual property. The translation of asset allocations into ETFs is based on the interpretation of LazyPortfolioETF.com and may not exactly reflect the original intent of the portfolio creators. Content is for informational, educational, illustrative, and entertainment purposes only.

Resources & Extras

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Asset Allocation and ETFs

To effectively implement the asset allocation of the Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio, investors can utilize the following selection of ETFs. These ETFs have been chosen specifically for their ability to represent each asset class within the portfolio and facilitate ease of management.

          100% Stocks
        
          0% Fixed Income
        
          0% Commodities

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Weight (%)	ETF Ticker	ETF Currency	ETF Name	Investment Themes (Orig.Currency)
10.00	DLS	USD	WisdomTree International SmallCp Div	Equity, Developed Markets, Small Cap, Value (USD)
10.00	EEM	USD	iShares MSCI Emerging Markets	Equity, Emerging Markets, Large Cap (USD)
10.00	IJR	USD	iShares Core S&P Small-Cap	Equity, U.S., Small Cap (USD)
10.00	IJS	USD	iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value	Equity, U.S., Small Cap, Value (USD)
10.00	SPY	USD	SPDR S&P 500	Equity, U.S., Large Cap (USD)
10.00	VTV	USD	Vanguard Value	Equity, U.S., Large Cap, Value (USD)
10.00	VEA	USD	Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets	Equity, EAFE, Large Cap (USD)
10.00	SCZ	USD	iShares MSCI EAFE Small-Cap	Equity, EAFE, Small Cap (USD)
10.00	EFV	USD	iShares MSCI EAFE Value	Equity, EAFE, Large Cap, Value (USD)
10.00	VNQ	USD	Vanguard Real Estate	Real Estate, U.S. (USD)

Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

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Portfolio and ETF Returns as of Apr 30, 2025

The Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.

Returns are calculated in USD, assuming:

no fees or capital gain taxes.
rebalancing: at every January 1^st. How do returns change with different rebalancing strategies?
dividend reinvestment, when applicable.
the actual US Inflation rates.

PAUL MERRIMAN ULTIMATE BUY AND HOLD STRATEGY PORTFOLIO

1 January 1976 - 30 April 2025 (~49 years)

Live Update: May 2025

Swipe left to see all data

			Chg (%)		Return (%)	Return (%) as of Apr 30, 2025
			1 Day	Time ET^(*)	---	YTD (4M)	1M	6M	1Y	5Y	10Y	30Y	MAX (~49Y)
Investment Return			---		---	1.75	0.18	0.66	10.21	11.38	6.65	8.36	11.46
US Inflation Adjusted Return						0.88	-0.04	-0.90	7.73	6.51	3.45	5.70	7.57
*Components*
DLS	USD	WisdomTree International SmallCp Div	---	---	---	10.11	4.59	8.46	12.79	9.92	4.65	6.70	9.96
EEM	USD	iShares MSCI Emerging Markets	---	---	---	4.64	0.14	0.11	9.31	5.91	2.44	5.58	7.47
IJR	USD	iShares Core S&P Small-Cap	---	---	---	-12.83	-4.25	-11.02	-2.11	11.32	7.26	9.54	12.66
IJS	USD	iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value	---	---	---	-15.15	-5.81	-12.47	-2.66	11.75	6.27	9.73	14.04
SPY	USD	SPDR S&P 500	---	---	---	-5.10	-0.87	-1.86	11.88	15.48	12.21	10.17	11.49
VTV	USD	Vanguard Value	---	---	---	-1.09	-3.62	-2.17	8.88	13.88	9.77	9.31	11.78
VEA	USD	Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets	---	---	---	11.07	4.01	7.61	12.59	11.50	5.62	5.35	8.62
SCZ	USD	iShares MSCI EAFE Small-Cap	---	---	---	9.47	4.67	6.87	12.45	9.05	5.33	6.72	9.97
EFV	USD	iShares MSCI EAFE Value	---	---	---	16.18	3.43	12.98	19.26	14.62	4.94	5.95	9.73
VNQ	USD	Vanguard Real Estate	---	---	---	0.18	-2.44	-4.30	15.55	7.01	5.21	9.24	11.67
Returns over 1 year are annualized
(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)
The live monthly return is calculated by assuming, for each asset, the weight defined by the base asset allocation.
US Inflation is updated to Apr 2025. Inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 2.30% , 5Y: 4.58% , 10Y: 3.10% , 30Y: 2.52%

In 2024, the Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio granted a 2.97% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.

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Capital Growth as of Apr 30, 2025

An investment of 1$, from May 1995 to April 2025, would be worth 11.13$, with a total return of 1012.65% (8.36% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital would be 5.27$, with a net total return of 427.15% (5.70% annualized).

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An investment of 1$, from January 1976 to April 2025, would be worth 210.74$, with a total return of 20974.05% (11.46% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital would be 36.57$, with a net total return of 3557.00% (7.57% annualized).

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Portfolio Metrics as of Apr 30, 2025

Metrics of Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio, updated as of 30 April 2025, provide a comprehensive overview of the portfolio's performance and risk characteristics.

These metrics include detailed data on returns, volatility, drawdowns and other key performance indicators. By examining them, you can gain insights into how the portfolio has performed over various time periods and understand its risk profile.

Metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:

no fees or capital gain taxes.
rebalancing: at every January 1^st. How do returns change with different rebalancing strategies?
dividend reinvestment, when applicable.
the actual US Inflation rates.

PAUL MERRIMAN ULTIMATE BUY AND HOLD STRATEGY PORTFOLIO

Advanced Metrics

1 January 1976 - 30 April 2025 (~49 years)

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	Metrics as of Apr 30, 2025
	YTD (4M)	1M	3M	6M	1Y	3Y	5Y	10Y	20Y	30Y	MAX (~49Y)
Investment Return (%)	1.75	0.18	-1.14	0.66	10.21	6.24	11.38	6.65	7.39	8.36	11.46
Growth of 1$	1.02	1.00	0.99	1.01	1.10	1.20	1.71	1.90	4.16	11.13	210.74
Infl. Adjusted Return (%)	0.88	-0.04	-1.52	-0.90	7.73	2.62	6.51	3.45	4.72	5.70	7.57
US Inflation (%)	0.86	0.22	0.39	1.57	2.30	3.53	4.58	3.10	2.55	2.52	3.61
Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized.
DRAWDOWN Inflation Adjusted: Inflation Adjusted:				Current	1Y	3Y	5Y	10Y	20Y	30Y	MAX
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%)				-2.91	-4.57	-16.55	-24.70	-27.54	-57.21	-57.21	-57.21
Start to Recovery (# months)				5*	5*	8	27	11	63	63	63
Start (yyyy mm)					2024 12	2022 06	2022 01	2020 01	2007 11	2007 11	2007 11
Start to Bottom (# months)					1	4	9	3	16	16	16
Bottom (yyyy mm)					2024 12	2022 09	2022 09	2020 03	2009 02	2009 02	2009 02
Bottom to End (# months)					4	4	18	8	47	47	47
End (yyyy mm)					-	2023 01	2024 03	2020 11	2013 01	2013 01	2013 01
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)					same	same	same	-24.70	same	same	same
Start to Recovery (# months)					same	same	same	27	same	same	same
Start (yyyy mm)					2024 12	2022 06	2022 01	2022 01	2007 11	2007 11	2007 11
Start to Bottom (# months)					1	4	9	9	16	16	16
Bottom (yyyy mm)					2024 12	2022 09	2022 09	2022 09	2009 02	2009 02	2009 02
Bottom to End (# months)					4	4	18	18	47	47	47
End (yyyy mm)					-	2023 01	2024 03	2024 03	2013 01	2013 01	2013 01
Longest negative period (# months)					8*	18	34	44	68	68	68
Start (yyyy mm)					2024 09	2022 05	2021 01	2016 08	2006 02	1997 08	1997 08
End (yyyy mm)					2025 04	2023 10	2023 10	2020 03	2011 09	2003 03	2003 03
Annualized Return (%)					-1.17	-4.32	-0.05	-0.04	-0.22	-0.14	-0.14
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%)				-7.58	-5.44	-17.95	-29.80	-29.80	-57.92	-57.92	-57.92
Start to Recovery (# months)				47*	7*	14	47*	47*	71	71	71
Start (yyyy mm)					2024 10	2022 06	2021 06	2021 06	2007 11	2007 11	2007 11
Start to Bottom (# months)					3	4	16	16	16	16	16
Bottom (yyyy mm)					2024 12	2022 09	2022 09	2022 09	2009 02	2009 02	2009 02
Bottom to End (# months)					4	10	31	31	55	55	55
End (yyyy mm)					-	2023 07	-	-	2013 09	2013 09	2013 09
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)					same	same	same	same	same	same	same
Start to Recovery (# months)					same	same	same	same	same	same	same
Start (yyyy mm)					2024 10	2022 06	2021 06	2021 06	2007 11	2007 11	2007 11
Start to Bottom (# months)					3	4	16	16	16	16	16
Bottom (yyyy mm)					2024 12	2022 09	2022 09	2022 09	2009 02	2009 02	2009 02
Bottom to End (# months)					4	10	31	31	55	55	55
End (yyyy mm)					-	2023 07	-	-	2013 09	2013 09	2013 09
Longest negative period (# months)					9*	21	50*	75	78	139	139
Start (yyyy mm)					2024 08	2022 05	2021 03	2017 08	2006 05	1997 08	1997 08
End (yyyy mm)					2025 04	2024 01	2025 04	2023 10	2012 10	2009 02	2009 02
Annualized Return (%)					-1.55	-0.40	-0.10	-0.15	-0.08	-0.10	-0.10
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
RISK INDICATORS					1Y	3Y	5Y	10Y	20Y	30Y	MAX
Standard Deviation (%)					10.25	16.54	15.72	15.52	16.79	15.76	15.32
Sharpe Ratio					0.53	0.12	0.56	0.32	0.35	0.39	0.47
Sortino Ratio					0.71	0.17	0.79	0.42	0.46	0.50	0.62
Ulcer Index					2.10	5.04	7.98	7.86	14.09	12.16	10.16
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation					1.00	0.38	0.72	0.43	0.44	0.53	0.75
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown					2.23	0.38	0.46	0.24	0.13	0.15	0.20
Positive Months (%)					66.66	55.55	58.33	61.66	62.50	62.50	64.52
Positive Months					8	20	35	74	150	225	382
Negative Months					4	16	25	46	90	135	210
LONG TERM RETURNS Inflation Adjusted: Inflation Adjusted:					1Y	3Y	5Y	10Y	20Y	30Y	MAX
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized								6.65	14.47	14.47	21.79
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized								6.65	4.41	3.22	3.22
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized								3.45	12.49	12.49	16.31
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized								3.45	2.43	0.62	0.62
TIMEFRAMES Inflation Adjusted: Inflation Adjusted:		1M	3M	6M	1Y	3Y	5Y	10Y	20Y	30Y	MAX
··· As of Apr 2025 - Over the previous 30Y
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized					68.65	33.96	24.86	14.47	9.96	8.36
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized					-49.19	-17.09	-3.83	3.22	6.29	8.36
Positive Periods (%)					71.3	87.3	93.6	100.0	100.0	100.0
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized					65.10	30.33	21.32	12.49	7.56	5.70
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized					-49.20	-18.85	-6.31	0.62	4.13	5.70
Positive Periods (%)					67.3	77.5	86.7	100.0	100.0	100.0
95% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative		6.71	10.63	13.67	15.37	18.39	3.26	0.00	0.00
95% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%)		8.59	13.90	18.29	31.59	26.77	7.88	0.00	0.00
99% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative		9.81	16.00	21.26	45.02	35.54	11.89	0.00	0.00
99% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%)		11.78	19.42	26.09	47.15	41.55	16.18	0.00	0.00
Short term VaRs: analytical \| 1+ year VaRs: historical data
Safe Withdrawal Rate (%)					67.22	22.51	14.45	8.69	7.34	7.47
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%)					---	---	---	0.83	4.24	6.05
% based on initial capital, inflation-adj. monthly withdrawals afterwards \| Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
··· All available data (Jan 1976 - Apr 2025)
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized					68.65	40.49	34.09	21.79	16.46	14.98
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized					-49.19	-17.09	-3.83	3.22	6.29	7.64
Positive Periods (%)					77.7	92.6	96.4	100.0	100.0	100.0
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized					65.10	36.38	30.01	16.31	11.18	10.34
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized					-49.20	-18.85	-6.31	0.62	3.78	4.99
Positive Periods (%)					71.7	84.7	92.3	100.0	100.0	100.0
95% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative		6.27	9.57	11.77	13.88	13.12	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
95% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%)		8.10	12.75	16.27	24.90	22.07	3.78	0.00	0.00	0.00
99% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative		9.28	14.79	19.15	39.47	26.02	8.41	0.00	0.00	0.00
99% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%)		11.20	18.11	23.85	45.12	35.95	13.31	0.00	0.00	0.00
Short term VaRs: analytical \| 1+ year VaRs: historical data
Safe Withdrawal Rate (%)					67.22	22.51	14.45	8.69	7.34	6.55
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%)					---	---	---	0.83	4.24	5.11
% based on initial capital, inflation-adj. monthly withdrawals afterwards \| Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com

Terms and Definitions

Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio.
Deepest/Longest Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. The deepest (or maximum) drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained. The longest drawdown is the period observed from a peak to the subsequent peak with the greatest duration.
Longest negative period: it's the maximum period for which an overall negative return has been observed.
Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean.
Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return.
Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation).
Ulcer Index: it's a measure of downside risk that quantifies the depth and duration of drawdowns in an investment portfolio.
Best/Worst 10Y returns: the best and the worst 10-year return over a time frame.
Rolling Returns: N-year returns over a time frame, calculated over all the available data source (best, worst, % of positive returns). Each rolling period, longer than the longest negative period, yielded a non-negative minimum return.
Value at Risk (VaR): it's an evaluation of a cumulative worst-case loss (in absolute value), associated with a probability (95%-99%) and a time horizon. For short term, it's calculated based on the expected return and standard deviation, assuming a normal distribution of monthly returns. For long term is retrieved by the historical rolling return data.
Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR): it represents the average expected loss if that worst-case threshold (95%-99%) is ever crossed.
Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money in any case (money amount withdrawal).
For instance: Your initial invested capital is 100.000$; withdrawal rate (annualized) is 4%. This means that, in the first month, you will withdraw 100.000 * 4% * 1/12 = 333.33$. The second month, you’ll withdraw 333.33$ plus the inflation monthly rate. You’ll continue adjusting your withdraw monthly for inflation.
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too.

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Portfolio Components Correlation

Correlation measures to what degree the returns of two assets move in relation to each other. It is a statistical measure that describes the extent to which the returns of one asset are related to the returns of another asset.

COMPONENTS MONTHLY CORRELATIONS

Monthly correlations as of 30 April 2025

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Terms and Definitions

Correlation values range between -1 and +1

A correlation of +1 indicates that the returns of the two assets move in perfect synchrony; when one asset's returns go up, the other asset's returns also go up by the same percentage, and vice versa. This perfect positive correlation implies that the assets perform similarly in different market conditions.
A correlation of -1 indicates a perfect inverse relationship between the returns of the two assets. When one asset's returns go up, the other asset's returns go down by the same percentage. This perfect negative correlation suggests that the assets move in opposite directions, providing a diversification benefit by reducing overall portfolio risk.
A correlation of 0 means that there is no linear relationship between the returns of the two assets. The returns of one asset do not predict the returns of the other.

Learn about historical correlations here: see how the main asset classes relate to each other.

Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

PAUL MERRIMAN ULTIMATE BUY AND HOLD STRATEGY PORTFOLIO

Drawdown periods

Drawdown periods - Inflation Adjusted

1 May 1995 - 30 April 2025 (30 Years)

1 January 1976 - 30 April 2025 (~49 years)

Inflation Adjusted:

Chart Table Range

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Rolling Returns

For a detailed rolling return analysis, click here
Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio: Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

PAUL MERRIMAN ULTIMATE BUY AND HOLD STRATEGY PORTFOLIO

Annualized Rolling Returns

Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted

1 May 1995 - 30 April 2025 (30 Years)

1 January 1976 - 30 April 2025 (~49 years)

Inflation Adjusted:

Return Chart Capital Chart Table

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The values shown for the rolling periods represent key statistical points: the minimum, maximum, median, and the 15th and 85th percentiles. These percentiles give insight into the distribution of the data, indicating the range within which the central 70% of the values lie, while the median represents the middle value.

Seasonality

In which months is it better to invest in Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio?

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past. They are retrieved considering the time period from January 1976 to April 2025.

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For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.

Monthly Returns

This section provides a visual/tabular representation of the performance variability in the Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio over time. It illustrates the distribution of monthly returns, showcasing the range and frequency of positive and negative returns.

PAUL MERRIMAN ULTIMATE BUY AND HOLD STRATEGY PORTFOLIO

Monthly Returns Distribution

1 May 1995 - 30 April 2025 (30 Years)

1 January 1976 - 30 April 2025 (~49 years)

225 Positive Months (63%) - 135 Negative Months (38%)

382 Positive Months (65%) - 210 Negative Months (35%)

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Methodology

Returns, up to December 2007, have been derived using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.
You can find additional information on extended Data Sources here.

In particular, the series derived from equivalent datasets are:

WisdomTree International SmallCp Div (DLS), up to December 2006
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM), up to December 2003
iShares Core S&P Small-Cap (IJR), up to December 2000
iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value (IJS), up to December 2000
SPDR S&P 500 (SPY), up to December 1993
Vanguard Value (VTV), up to December 2004
Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets (VEA), up to December 2007
iShares MSCI EAFE Small-Cap (SCZ), up to December 2007
iShares MSCI EAFE Value (EFV), up to December 2005
Vanguard Real Estate (VNQ), up to December 2004

Portfolio efficiency

Compare Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio performance and efficiency against top portfolios to identify strengths and areas for improvement.

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Build wealth
with Lazy Portfolios and Passive Investing

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