The Lazy Team Simplified Permanent Portfolio vs Marvin Appel One-Decision Portfolio Portfolio Comparison

Simulation Settings
Period: January 1928 - April 2025 (~97 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 30 April 2025
Rebalancing: at every Jan 1st
Currency: USD
Inflation: US
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Results
30 Years
All (since January 1928)
Inflation Adjusted:
The Lazy Team Simplified Permanent Portfolio
1.00$
Initial Capital
May 1995
8.42$
Final Capital
April 2025
7.36%
Yearly Return
6.92%
Std Deviation
-16.43%
Max Drawdown
27months
Recovery Period
1.00$
Initial Capital
May 1995
4.00$
Final Capital
April 2025
4.73%
Yearly Return
6.92%
Std Deviation
-23.36%
Max Drawdown
52months*
Recovery Period
* in progress
1.00$
Initial Capital
January 1928
703.71$
Final Capital
April 2025
6.97%
Yearly Return
7.31%
Std Deviation
-30.22%
Max Drawdown
46months
Recovery Period
1.00$
Initial Capital
January 1928
38.10$
Final Capital
April 2025
3.81%
Yearly Return
7.31%
Std Deviation
-25.39%
Max Drawdown
35months
Recovery Period
Marvin Appel One-Decision Portfolio
1.00$
Initial Capital
May 1995
7.82$
Final Capital
April 2025
7.09%
Yearly Return
8.51%
Std Deviation
-31.96%
Max Drawdown
41months
Recovery Period
1.00$
Initial Capital
May 1995
3.71$
Final Capital
April 2025
4.47%
Yearly Return
8.51%
Std Deviation
-33.86%
Max Drawdown
47months
Recovery Period
1.00$
Initial Capital
January 1928
890.39$
Final Capital
April 2025
7.23%
Yearly Return
9.38%
Std Deviation
-47.77%
Max Drawdown
83months
Recovery Period
1.00$
Initial Capital
January 1928
48.20$
Final Capital
April 2025
4.06%
Yearly Return
9.38%
Std Deviation
-34.04%
Max Drawdown
45months
Recovery Period

As of April 2025, in the previous 30 Years, the The Lazy Team Simplified Permanent Portfolio obtained a 7.36% compound annual return, with a 6.92% standard deviation. It suffered a maximum drawdown of -16.43% that required 27 months to be recovered.

As of April 2025, in the previous 30 Years, the Marvin Appel One-Decision Portfolio obtained a 7.09% compound annual return, with a 8.51% standard deviation. It suffered a maximum drawdown of -31.96% that required 41 months to be recovered.

Disclaimer: The simulations on this website are provided in good faith but should NOT be taken as investment advice. We are not liable for any errors or actions based on this information. The authors of the website are not affiliated with the portfolio creators, who are the sole owners of their intellectual property. The translation of asset allocations into ETFs is based on the interpretation of LazyPortfolioETF.com and may not exactly reflect the original intent of the portfolio creators. Content is for informational, educational, illustrative, and entertainment purposes only.
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Asset Allocations and ETFs

The compared portfolios have the following asset allocations.

The Lazy Team Simplified Permanent Portfolio
Weight
(%)		 Ticker Name
25.00
VTI
Vanguard Total Stock Market
50.00
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond
25.00
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust
Marvin Appel One-Decision Portfolio
Weight
(%)		 Ticker Name
20.00
SPY
SPDR S&P 500
20.00
VNQ
Vanguard Real Estate
10.00
IJS
iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value
30.00
BIL
SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill
20.00
LQD
iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond
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Portfolio Returns as of Apr 30, 2025

Returns are calculated in USD, assuming:
  • no fees or capital gain taxes.
  • rebalancing: at every Jan 1st.
  • dividend reinvestment, when applicable.
RETURN COMPARISON
Period: 1 January 1928 - 30 April 2025 (~97 years)
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Return (%) as of Apr 30, 2025
YTD
(4M) 		1M 6M 1Y 5Y 10Y 30Y MAX
(~97Y)
//www.lazyportfolioetf.com/wp-content/themes/dynamico-child/img/author/avatar_lzp.webp Simplified Permanent Portfolio
The Lazy Team 		7.42 1.88 6.39 18.49 6.09 6.21 7.36 6.97
//www.lazyportfolioetf.com/wp-content/themes/dynamico-child/img/author/avatar_marvin_appel.webp One-Decision Portfolio
Marvin Appel 		-1.65 -1.15 -1.45 8.32 6.71 5.46 7.09 7.23
Return over 1 year are annualized.
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Capital Growth as of Apr 30, 2025

The Lazy Team Simplified Permanent Portfolio: an investment of 1$, since May 1995, now would be worth 8.42$, with a total return of 742.32% (7.36% annualized).

Marvin Appel One-Decision Portfolio: an investment of 1$, since May 1995, now would be worth 7.82$, with a total return of 681.72% (7.09% annualized).


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The Lazy Team Simplified Permanent Portfolio: an investment of 1$, since January 1928, now would be worth 703.71$, with a total return of 70270.67% (6.97% annualized).

Marvin Appel One-Decision Portfolio: an investment of 1$, since January 1928, now would be worth 890.39$, with a total return of 88939.21% (7.23% annualized).


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Portfolio Metrics as of Apr 30, 2025

The following metrics, updated as of 30 April 2025, provide an overview of performance and risk, with the best value in each row highlighted within the table.

METRIC COMPARISON
Period: 1 May 2024 - 30 April 2025 (1 year)
Period: 1 May 2020 - 30 April 2025 (5 years)
Period: 1 May 2015 - 30 April 2025 (10 years)
Period: 1 May 1995 - 30 April 2025 (30 years)
Period: 1 January 1928 - 30 April 2025 (~97 years)
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Simplified Permanent Portfolio One-Decision Portfolio
Author The Lazy Team Marvin Appel
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks 25% 50%
Fixed Income 50% 50%
Commodities 25% 0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%) 18.49 8.32
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) 16.09 6.12
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -2.24 -4.94
Start to Recovery (months) 2 5*
Longest Drawdown Depth (%) -0.55 -4.94
Start to Recovery (months) 2 5*
Longest Negative Period (months) 3 8*
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%) 5.04 7.63
Sharpe Ratio 2.71 0.46
Sortino Ratio 3.27 0.61
Ulcer Index 0.64 2.15
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 3.67 1.09
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 8.26 1.68
Metrics calculated over the period 1 May 2024 - 30 April 2025
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Simplified Permanent Portfolio One-Decision Portfolio
Author The Lazy Team Marvin Appel
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks 25% 50%
Fixed Income 50% 50%
Commodities 25% 0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%) 6.09 6.71
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) 1.49 2.08
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -16.43 -16.74
Start to Recovery (months) 27 31
Longest Drawdown Depth (%) -16.43 -16.74
Start to Recovery (months) 27 31
Longest Negative Period (months) 40 32
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%) 8.60 10.03
Sharpe Ratio 0.41 0.42
Sortino Ratio 0.56 0.57
Ulcer Index 5.95 6.34
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 0.71 0.67
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 0.37 0.40
Metrics calculated over the period 1 May 2020 - 30 April 2025
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Simplified Permanent Portfolio One-Decision Portfolio
Author The Lazy Team Marvin Appel
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks 25% 50%
Fixed Income 50% 50%
Commodities 25% 0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%) 6.21 5.46
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) 3.04 2.32
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -16.43 -16.74
Start to Recovery (months) 27 31
Longest Drawdown Depth (%) -16.43 -16.74
Start to Recovery (months) 27 31
Longest Negative Period (months) 40 32
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%) 7.28 9.18
Sharpe Ratio 0.61 0.40
Sortino Ratio 0.86 0.54
Ulcer Index 4.45 4.92
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 0.85 0.59
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 0.38 0.33
Metrics calculated over the period 1 May 2015 - 30 April 2025
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Simplified Permanent Portfolio One-Decision Portfolio
Author The Lazy Team Marvin Appel
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks 25% 50%
Fixed Income 50% 50%
Commodities 25% 0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%) 7.36 7.09
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) 4.73 4.47
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -16.43 -31.96
Start to Recovery (months) 27 41
Longest Drawdown Depth (%) -16.43 -31.96
Start to Recovery (months) 27 41
Longest Negative Period (months) 40 64
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%) 6.92 8.51
Sharpe Ratio 0.73 0.57
Sortino Ratio 1.02 0.73
Ulcer Index 3.15 5.55
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 1.06 0.83
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 0.45 0.22
Metrics calculated over the period 1 May 1995 - 30 April 2025
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Simplified Permanent Portfolio One-Decision Portfolio
Author The Lazy Team Marvin Appel
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks 25% 50%
Fixed Income 50% 50%
Commodities 25% 0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%) 6.97 7.23
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) 3.81 4.06
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -30.22 -47.77
Start to Recovery (months) 46 83
Longest Drawdown Depth (%) -30.22 -47.77
Start to Recovery (months) 46 83
Longest Negative Period (months) 63 154
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%) 7.31 9.38
Sharpe Ratio 0.50 0.41
Sortino Ratio 0.73 0.57
Ulcer Index 4.32 7.69
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 0.95 0.77
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 0.23 0.15
Metrics calculated over the period 1 January 1928 - 30 April 2025
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Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

DRAWDOWN COMPARISON
Period: 1 May 1995 - 30 April 2025 (30 years)
Period: 1 January 1928 - 30 April 2025 (~97 years)

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Simplified Permanent Portfolio One-Decision Portfolio
Drawdown
(%) 		Recovery
(#Months)		 From
To		 Drawdown
(%) 		Recovery
(#Months)		 From
To
-31.96 41 Jun 2007
Oct 2010
-16.74 31 Jan 2022
Jul 2024
-16.43 27 Jan 2022
Mar 2024
-13.28 18 Mar 2008
Aug 2009
-13.04 10 Feb 2020
Nov 2020
-8.52 8 Jun 2011
Jan 2012
-8.13 6 Jul 1998
Dec 1998
-7.23 14 Apr 2002
May 2003
-6.99 7 Sep 2018
Mar 2019
-6.69 11 Apr 2013
Feb 2014
-6.23 12 Aug 2016
Jul 2017
-5.27 14 Feb 2015
Mar 2016
-5.09 9 Feb 1999
Oct 1999
-4.94 5* Dec 2024
In progress
-4.79 7 Apr 2004
Oct 2004

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Simplified Permanent Portfolio One-Decision Portfolio
Drawdown
(%) 		Recovery
(#Months)		 From
To		 Drawdown
(%) 		Recovery
(#Months)		 From
To
-47.77 83 Sep 1929
Jul 1936
-31.96 41 Jun 2007
Oct 2010
-30.22 46 Sep 1929
Jun 1933
-23.43 66 Aug 1937
Jan 1943
-18.44 31 Dec 1972
Jun 1975
-16.74 31 Jan 2022
Jul 2024
-16.43 27 Jan 2022
Mar 2024
-14.34 21 Dec 1980
Aug 1982
-13.70 32 Mar 1937
Oct 1939
-13.28 18 Mar 2008
Aug 2009
-13.17 5 Feb 1980
Jun 1980
-13.14 21 May 1969
Jan 1971
-13.04 10 Feb 2020
Nov 2020
-12.38 13 Sep 1987
Sep 1988
-11.37 10 Apr 1974
Jan 1975

Rolling Returns

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the Simulation Settings.

You can explore the Rolling Returns for a single portfolio, or check the return differential, by switching on "Head To Head" toggle.

Rolling Returns Comparison
Annualized Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 January 1928 - 30 April 2025 (~97 years)


Head To Head (Ptf 1 vs Ptf 2):
US Inflation Adjusted:

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Yearly Returns

For each year, the following table provides the return and intra-year drawdown. The highlighted returns represent the highest values for that specific year.

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Simplified Permanent Portfolio One-Decision Portfolio
Year Return
(%)		 Drawdown
(%)		 Return
(%)		 Drawdown
(%)
2025
 7.42 0.00 -1.65 -3.37
2024
 12.30 -2.24 8.40 -3.55
2023
 11.51 -5.16 12.43 -7.22
2022
 -12.67 -16.43 -13.18 -16.74
2021
 3.72 -3.81 16.51 -2.73
2020
 16.46 -3.11 5.32 -13.04
2019
 16.15 -0.99 18.51 -2.02
2018
 -1.29 -3.68 -3.64 -6.99
2017
 9.78 -0.96 8.07 -0.59
2016
 5.72 -6.23 8.52 -3.21
2015
 -1.82 -5.27 -0.25 -4.76
2014
 7.12 -2.59 11.14 -2.54
2013
 -1.76 -6.69 10.43 -2.72
2012
 7.59 -1.89 10.65 -2.81
2011
 10.45 -3.69 3.87 -8.52
2010
 16.36 -0.02 13.01 -6.14
2009
 9.94 -4.96 15.30 -14.35
2008
 0.94 -13.28 -16.74 -22.59
2007
 14.14 -1.50 -0.68 -5.17
2006
 10.82 -2.47 14.45 -1.98
2005
 7.34 -1.60 5.08 -2.36
2004
 6.42 -4.79 12.05 -4.65
2003
 15.31 -2.22 18.87 -1.57
2002
 9.00 -2.60 -2.42 -7.23
2001
 0.15 -3.21 4.32 -3.58
2000
 4.63 -2.98 9.42 -2.13
1999
 2.25 -5.09 4.70 -3.16
1998
 12.93 -4.63 5.32 -8.13
1997
 8.38 -2.87 17.36 -1.24
1996
 4.09 -3.64 15.52 -1.31
1995
 21.97 0.00 19.02 -0.66
1994
 -4.18 -5.67 -1.28 -5.02
1993
 13.56 -1.61 11.41 -1.82
1992
 4.46 -3.11 9.68 -0.89
1991
 15.41 -1.06 23.01 -1.99
1990
 1.55 -5.66 -1.89 -7.50
1989
 15.24 -1.52 15.28 -0.97
1988
 3.97 -2.03 12.57 -1.14
1987
 5.46 -5.83 2.00 -12.38
1986
 19.06 -1.00 13.98 -2.95
1985
 24.24 -2.66 20.92 -1.32
1984
 3.14 -5.27 12.26 -2.55
1983
 2.74 -3.74 19.12 -1.46
1982
 28.65 -5.77 23.18 -1.47
1981
 -6.55 -13.29 6.73 -5.61
1980
 11.44 -13.17 17.14 -6.77
1979
 38.61 -5.94 17.24 -6.81
1978
 11.00 -5.48 7.38 -5.77
1977
 5.09 -3.12 6.67 -0.92
1976
 13.24 -2.32 25.20 -1.17
1975
 6.02 -7.68 21.70 -5.67
1974
 11.61 -11.37 -10.56 -15.06
1973
 15.34 -6.38 -6.39 -6.65
1972
 17.84 -2.23 8.28 -1.29
1971
 14.20 -2.36 8.61 -4.84
1970
 12.20 -5.73 8.28 -8.62
1969
 -9.41 -11.13 -0.95 -4.58
1968
 11.01 -0.78 8.59 -2.35
1967
 5.38 -1.95 11.78 -2.65
1966
 0.48 -4.81 -0.03 -6.32
1965
 4.02 -0.86 7.42 -2.29
1964
 5.99 -0.28 7.72 -0.79
1963
 6.03 -0.83 8.66 -1.64
1962
 0.41 -5.15 -0.86 -9.52
1961
 7.10 -1.25 9.51 -1.97
1960
 6.95 -1.34 3.46 -3.30
1959
 2.64 -2.19 4.93 -3.33
1958
 10.15 -0.76 15.16 -1.24
1957
 0.51 -3.69 -0.23 -5.65
1956
 0.82 -2.90 2.65 -4.39
1955
 5.80 -0.45 8.77 -2.41
1954
 14.04 -1.08 17.75 -2.51
1953
 -0.81 -5.34 3.01 -2.68
1952
 3.54 -1.51 6.69 -2.02
1951
 4.75 -1.88 7.69 -3.72
1950
 6.73 -1.65 12.10 -3.16
1949
 6.56 -1.06 6.86 -3.12
1948
 1.37 -2.71 2.07 -5.48
1947
 3.38 -1.58 5.70 -1.97
1946
 -0.72 -6.02 2.54 -8.87
1945
 13.13 -0.77 17.56 -2.23
1944
 6.27 -0.34 12.01 -0.72
1943
 8.67 -2.39 13.73 -4.78
1942
 5.07 -3.07 7.74 -6.44
1941
 -0.43 -3.99 -3.99 -6.60
1940
 0.90 -6.62 -0.89 -11.63
1939
 2.59 -2.86 -0.68 -7.87
1938
 9.29 -6.59 10.93 -13.41
1937
 -8.08 -9.88 -10.52 -14.62
1936
 11.10 -1.80 13.90 -4.16
1935
 13.72 -1.24 16.78 -6.35
1934
 6.62 -2.89 2.19 -8.93
1933
 29.29 -5.58 21.91 -12.56
1932
 2.29 -9.64 -1.37 -21.80
1931
 -12.31 -16.02 -15.40 -23.17
1930
 -4.80 -9.44 -6.85 -15.85
1929
 -0.60 -8.59 -2.21 -17.97
1928
 10.16 -1.26 12.69 -2.87
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