Data Source: from January 1871 to November 2023 (~153 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 30 November 2023
Live Update: Dec 01 2023
Consolidated Returns as of 30 November 2023
Live Update: Dec 01 2023
PORTFOLIO • LIVE PERFORMANCE (USD currency)
1.11%
1 Day
Dec 01 2023
1.11%
Current Month
December 2023
The Simplified Permanent Portfolio is a Medium Risk portfolio and can be implemented with 3 ETFs.
It's exposed for 25% on the Stock Market and for 25% on Commodities.
In the last 30 Years, the Simplified Permanent Portfolio obtained a 6.75% compound annual return, with a 6.88% standard deviation.
Table of contents
Asset Allocation and ETFs
The Simplified Permanent Portfolio has the following asset allocation:
25% Stocks
50% Fixed Income
25% Commodities
The Simplified Permanent Portfolio can be implemented with the following ETFs:
| Weight (%) | Ticker | Currency | ETF Name | Investment Themes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25.00 |
VTI
|
USD | Vanguard Total Stock Market | Equity, U.S., Large Cap |
| 50.00 |
IEF
|
USD | iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond | Bond, U.S., Intermediate-Term |
| 25.00 |
GLD
|
USD | SPDR Gold Trust | Commodity, Gold |
Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.
Portfolio and ETF Returns as of Nov 30, 2023
The Simplified Permanent Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.
Returns are calculated in USD, assuming:
- no fees or capital gain taxes.
- a rebalancing of the components at every January 1st. How do returns change with different rebalancing strategies?
- the reinvestment of dividends.
SIMPLIFIED PERMANENT PORTFOLIO
Consolidated returns as of 30 November 2023
Live Update: Dec 01 2023
Swipe left to see all data
| Chg (%) | Return (%) | Return (%) as of Nov 30, 2023 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Day | Time ET(*) | Dec 2023 | 1M | 6M | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | 30Y |
MAX
(~153Y) |
|||
| Simplified Permanent Portfolio | 1.11 | 1.11 | 5.32 | 1.88 | 6.25 | 5.73 | 4.66 | 6.75 | 5.79 | |||
| US Inflation Adjusted return | 5.32 | 0.71 | 2.81 | 1.60 | 1.79 | 4.12 | 3.59 | |||||
| Components | ||||||||||||
|
VTI
|
USD | Vanguard Total Stock Market | 0.84 | Dec 01 2023 | 0.84 | 9.42 | 10.04 | 12.72 | 11.71 | 11.16 | 9.90 | 9.08 |
|
IEF
|
USD | iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond | 0.94 | Dec 01 2023 | 0.94 | 4.55 | -3.28 | -1.61 | 0.01 | 0.99 | 4.59 | 4.52 |
|
GLD
|
USD | SPDR Gold Trust | 1.73 | Dec 01 2023 | 1.73 | 2.53 | 3.53 | 14.53 | 10.31 | 4.57 | 5.55 | 2.93 |
Returns over 1 year are annualized | Available data source: since Jan 1871
(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)
US Inflation is updated to Oct 2023.
Waiting for updates, inflation of Nov 2023 is set to 0%.
Current inflation (annualized) is
1Y: 3.35%
, 5Y: 4.07%
, 10Y: 2.82%
, 30Y: 2.52%
Live update: World Markets and Indexes
In 2022, the Simplified Permanent Portfolio granted a 1.14% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Simplified Permanent Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.
Capital Growth as of Nov 30, 2023
An investment of 1$, since December 1993,
now would be worth 7.09$, with a total return of 608.93% (6.75% annualized).
The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 3.36$, with a net total return of 235.95% (4.12% annualized).
The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 3.36$, with a net total return of 235.95% (4.12% annualized).
An investment of 1$, since January 1871,
now would be worth 5458.58$, with a total return of 545758.16% (5.79% annualized).
The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 221.29$, with a net total return of 22029.44% (3.59% annualized).
The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 221.29$, with a net total return of 22029.44% (3.59% annualized).
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Portfolio Metrics as of Nov 30, 2023
Metrics of Simplified Permanent Portfolio, updated as of 30 November 2023.
Metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:
- no fees or capital gain taxes.
- a rebalancing of the components at every January 1st. How do returns change with different rebalancing strategies?
- the reinvestment of dividends.
SIMPLIFIED PERMANENT PORTFOLIO
Advanced Metrics
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 30 November 2023 (~153 years)
Swipe left to see all data
| Metrics as of Nov 30, 2023 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | 20Y | 30Y |
MAX
(~153Y) |
|
| Investment Return (%) | 5.32 | 1.28 | 1.88 | 6.25 | 0.12 | 5.73 | 4.66 | 6.58 | 6.75 | 5.79 |
| Infl. Adjusted Return (%) details | 5.32 | 1.07 | 0.71 | 2.81 | -5.32 | 1.60 | 1.79 | 3.88 | 4.12 | 3.59 |
| US Inflation (%) | 0.00 | 0.21 | 1.17 | 3.35 | 5.74 | 4.07 | 2.82 | 2.59 | 2.52 | 2.12 |
| Waiting for updates, inflation of Nov 2023 is temporarily set to 0%. Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized. | ||||||||||
|
DRAWDOWN
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
|
1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | 20Y | 30Y | MAX | |||
| Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) | -5.16 | -16.43 | -16.43 | -16.43 | -16.43 | -16.43 | -30.22 | |||
| Start to Recovery (# months) details | 4 | 23* | 23* | 23* | 23* | 23* | 46 | |||
| Start (yyyy mm) | 2023 08 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 1929 09 | |||
| Start to Bottom (# months) | 2 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 33 | |||
| Bottom (yyyy mm) | 2023 09 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 1932 05 | |||
| Bottom to End (# months) | 2 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 13 | |||
| End (yyyy mm) | 2023 11 | - | - | - | - | - | 1933 06 | |||
| Longest Drawdown Depth (%) |
same as deepest |
same as deepest |
same as deepest |
same as deepest |
same as deepest |
same as deepest |
same as deepest |
|||
| Start to Recovery (# months) details | ||||||||||
| Start (yyyy mm) | 2023 08 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 1929 09 | |||
| Start to Bottom (# months) | 2 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 33 | |||
| Bottom (yyyy mm) | 2023 09 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 1932 05 | |||
| Bottom to End (# months) | 2 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 13 | |||
| End (yyyy mm) | 2023 11 | - | - | - | - | - | 1933 06 | |||
| Longest negative period (# months) details | 9 | 35 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 80 | |||
| Period Start (yyyy mm) | 2023 02 | 2020 12 | 2020 06 | 2020 06 | 2020 06 | 2020 06 | 1925 11 | |||
| Period End (yyyy mm) | 2023 10 | 2023 10 | 2023 09 | 2023 09 | 2023 09 | 2023 09 | 1932 06 | |||
| Annualized Return (%) | -3.43 | -1.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||
| Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress | ||||||||||
| Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) | -5.80 | -23.93 | -23.93 | -23.93 | -23.93 | -23.93 | -49.37 | |||
| Start to Recovery (# months) details | 4* | 35* | 35* | 35* | 35* | 35* | 191 | |||
| Start (yyyy mm) | 2023 08 | 2021 01 | 2021 01 | 2021 01 | 2021 01 | 2021 01 | 1911 07 | |||
| Start to Bottom (# months) | 2 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 108 | |||
| Bottom (yyyy mm) | 2023 09 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 1920 06 | |||
| Bottom to End (# months) | 2 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 83 | |||
| End (yyyy mm) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1927 05 | |||
| Longest Drawdown Depth (%) |
same as deepest |
same as deepest |
same as deepest |
same as deepest |
same as deepest |
same as deepest |
same as deepest |
|||
| Start to Recovery (# months) details | ||||||||||
| Start (yyyy mm) | 2023 08 | 2021 01 | 2021 01 | 2021 01 | 2021 01 | 2021 01 | 1911 07 | |||
| Start to Bottom (# months) | 2 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 108 | |||
| Bottom (yyyy mm) | 2023 09 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 1920 06 | |||
| Bottom to End (# months) | 2 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 83 | |||
| End (yyyy mm) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1927 05 | |||
| Longest negative period (# months) details | 11 | 36* | 57 | 87 | 87 | 87 | 405 | |||
| Period Start (yyyy mm) | 2022 12 | 2020 12 | 2019 02 | 2016 08 | 2016 08 | 2016 08 | 1886 11 | |||
| Period End (yyyy mm) | 2023 10 | 2023 11 | 2023 10 | 2023 10 | 2023 10 | 2023 10 | 1920 07 | |||
| Annualized Return (%) | -2.60 | -5.32 | -0.14 | -0.06 | -0.06 | -0.06 | -0.01 | |||
| Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress | ||||||||||
|
RISK INDICATORS
|
1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | 20Y | 30Y | MAX | |||
| Standard Deviation (%) | 10.25 | 9.56 | 8.63 | 7.18 | 7.23 | 6.88 | 6.24 | |||
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.13 | -0.19 | 0.47 | 0.50 | 0.73 | 0.65 | 0.29 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.20 | -0.27 | 0.66 | 0.72 | 1.01 | 0.91 | 0.43 | |||
| Ulcer Index | 2.30 | 7.56 | 5.92 | 4.53 | 3.68 | 3.24 | 3.79 | |||
| Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation | 0.61 | 0.01 | 0.66 | 0.65 | 0.91 | 0.98 | 0.93 | |||
| Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown | 1.21 | 0.01 | 0.35 | 0.28 | 0.40 | 0.41 | 0.19 | |||
| % Positive Months details | 58% | 50% | 60% | 58% | 61% | 61% | 62% | |||
| Positive Months | 7 | 18 | 36 | 70 | 148 | 223 | 1154 | |||
| Negative Months | 5 | 18 | 24 | 50 | 92 | 137 | 681 | |||
|
LONG TERM RETURNS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
|
1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | 20Y | 30Y | MAX | |||
| Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized | 4.66 | 8.87 | 10.42 | 15.78 | ||||||
| Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized | 3.16 | 3.16 | 1.46 | |||||||
| Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized | 1.79 | 6.49 | 7.78 | 9.54 | ||||||
| Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized | 0.63 | 0.63 | -5.19 | |||||||
|
ROLLING PERIOD RETURNS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
|
1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | 20Y | 30Y | MAX | |||
| Over the latest 30Y | ||||||||||
| Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | 23.00 | 16.78 | 11.77 | 10.42 | 8.38 | 6.75 | ||||
| Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | -14.62 | -1.62 | 2.76 | 3.16 | 6.36 | |||||
| % Positive Periods | 88% | 98% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||||
| Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | 19.75 | 15.06 | 9.41 | 7.78 | 6.02 | 4.12 | ||||
| Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | -20.76 | -6.96 | -0.40 | 0.63 | 3.69 | |||||
| % Positive Periods | 78% | 93% | 99% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||||
| Over all the available data source (Jan 1871 - Nov 2023) | ||||||||||
| Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | 48.12 | 22.17 | 18.07 | 15.78 | 12.21 | 10.89 | ||||
| Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | -21.03 | -9.97 | -2.38 | 1.46 | 2.12 | 2.65 | ||||
| % Positive Periods | 82% | 96% | 99% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||||
| Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | 58.61 | 17.08 | 14.40 | 9.54 | 7.58 | 6.60 | ||||
| Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | -22.63 | -13.46 | -11.23 | -5.19 | -2.19 | -0.29 | ||||
| % Positive Periods | 69% | 83% | 86% | 88% | 93% | 99% | ||||
|
WITHDRAWAL RATES (WR)
|
1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | 20Y | 30Y | MAX | |||
| Safe WR (%) | 31.27 | 22.75 | 11.47 | 8.01 | 6.17 | 4.60 | ||||
| Perpetual WR (%) | 0.00 | 1.57 | 1.76 | 3.74 | 3.96 | 3.47 | ||||
- Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio
- Deepest/Longest Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. The deepest (or maximum) drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained. The longest drawdown is the period observed from a peak to the subsequent peak with the greatest duration.
- Longest negative period: it's the maximum period for which an overall negative return has been observed
- Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean
- Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return
- Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation)
- Ulcer Index: it's a measure of downside risk that quantifies the depth and duration of drawdowns in an investment portfolio
- Best/Worst 10Y returns: the best and the worst 10-year return over a time frame
- Rolling Returns: N-year returns over a time frame, calculated over all the available data source (best, worst, % of positive returns). Each rolling period, longer than the longest negative period, yielded a non-negative minimum return.
- Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the original portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money (dollar amount withdrawal).
- Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year, while retaining the inflation adjusted portfolio balance (percentage withdrawal).
Analyze your Portfolio: Backtest Now!
Explore historical data since 1871 and fine-tune your investment strategy for better results.
Explore historical data since 1871 and fine-tune your investment strategy for better results.
Portfolio Components Correlation
Correlation measures to what degree the returns of the two assets move in relation to each other.
Correlation coefficient is a numerical value between -1 and +1. If one variable goes up by a certain amount, the correlation coefficient indicates which way the other variable moves and by how much.
Asset correlations are calculated based on monthly returns.
Asset correlations are calculated based on monthly returns.
COMPONENTS MONTHLY CORRELATIONS
Monthly correlations as of 30 November 2023
Swipe left to see all data
| Asset |
VTI
|
IEF
|
GLD
|
|---|---|---|---|
|
VTI
|
-
|
0.74
|
0.27
|
|
IEF
|
0.74
|
-
|
0.63
|
|
GLD
|
0.27
|
0.63
|
-
|
| Asset |
VTI
|
IEF
|
GLD
|
|---|---|---|---|
|
VTI
|
-
|
0.17
|
0.20
|
|
IEF
|
0.17
|
-
|
0.45
|
|
GLD
|
0.20
|
0.45
|
-
|
| Asset |
VTI
|
IEF
|
GLD
|
|---|---|---|---|
|
VTI
|
-
|
0.05
|
0.09
|
|
IEF
|
0.05
|
-
|
0.46
|
|
GLD
|
0.09
|
0.46
|
-
|
| Asset |
VTI
|
IEF
|
GLD
|
|---|---|---|---|
|
VTI
|
-
|
-0.11
|
0.06
|
|
IEF
|
-0.11
|
-
|
0.25
|
|
GLD
|
0.06
|
0.25
|
-
|
| Asset |
VTI
|
IEF
|
GLD
|
|---|---|---|---|
|
VTI
|
-
|
0.10
|
0.02
|
|
IEF
|
0.10
|
-
|
0.07
|
|
GLD
|
0.02
|
0.07
|
-
|
If you want to learn more about historical correlations, you can find out here how the main asset class are correlated to each other.
Drawdowns
A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.
SIMPLIFIED PERMANENT PORTFOLIO
Drawdown periods
Drawdown periods - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 December 1993 - 30 November 2023 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 30 November 2023 (~153 years)
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period |
Recovery period |
Total |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drawdown | Start | Bottom | #Months | End | #Months | #Months | Ulcer Index |
| -16.43% | Jan 2022 | Sep 2022 | 9 | in progress | 14 | 23 | 9.30 |
| -13.28% | Mar 2008 | Oct 2008 | 8 | Aug 2009 | 10 | 18 | 5.20 |
| -6.69% | Apr 2013 | Jun 2013 | 3 | Feb 2014 | 8 | 11 | 3.22 |
| -6.23% | Aug 2016 | Dec 2016 | 5 | Jul 2017 | 7 | 12 | 3.09 |
| -5.67% | Feb 1994 | Jun 1994 | 5 | Mar 1995 | 9 | 14 | 4.01 |
| -5.27% | Feb 2015 | Dec 2015 | 11 | Mar 2016 | 3 | 14 | 3.18 |
| -5.09% | Feb 1999 | Aug 1999 | 7 | Oct 1999 | 2 | 9 | 3.00 |
| -4.79% | Apr 2004 | Apr 2004 | 1 | Oct 2004 | 6 | 7 | 3.04 |
| -4.63% | Jul 1998 | Aug 1998 | 2 | Sep 1998 | 1 | 3 | 2.40 |
| -3.81% | Jan 2021 | Mar 2021 | 3 | May 2021 | 2 | 5 | 2.20 |
| -3.73% | Dec 1996 | Mar 1997 | 4 | May 1997 | 2 | 6 | 1.90 |
| -3.69% | Sep 2011 | Sep 2011 | 1 | Nov 2011 | 2 | 3 | 1.87 |
| -3.68% | Feb 2018 | Oct 2018 | 9 | Jan 2019 | 3 | 12 | 2.08 |
| -3.64% | Feb 1996 | Jul 1996 | 6 | Oct 1996 | 3 | 9 | 2.20 |
| -3.46% | Sep 2000 | Mar 2001 | 7 | Sep 2001 | 6 | 13 | 1.81 |
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period |
Recovery period |
Total |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drawdown | Start | Bottom | #Months | End | #Months | #Months | Ulcer Index |
| -23.93% | Jan 2021 | Sep 2022 | 21 | in progress | 14 | 35 | 14.47 |
| -15.24% | Mar 2008 | Oct 2008 | 8 | Sep 2009 | 11 | 19 | 6.29 |
| -7.81% | Feb 1994 | Nov 1994 | 10 | May 1995 | 6 | 16 | 5.20 |
| -7.52% | Oct 2012 | Jun 2013 | 9 | Jun 2014 | 12 | 21 | 3.03 |
| -6.68% | Feb 1999 | Aug 1999 | 7 | Aug 2000 | 12 | 19 | 3.24 |
| -6.55% | Aug 2016 | Dec 2016 | 5 | Dec 2017 | 12 | 17 | 3.21 |
| -6.49% | Feb 2015 | Sep 2015 | 8 | Apr 2016 | 7 | 15 | 4.36 |
| -5.59% | Feb 2018 | Oct 2018 | 9 | Mar 2019 | 5 | 14 | 3.14 |
| -5.33% | Sep 2000 | Mar 2001 | 7 | May 2002 | 14 | 21 | 2.95 |
| -5.28% | Apr 2004 | May 2004 | 2 | Nov 2004 | 6 | 8 | 3.55 |
| -5.24% | Feb 1996 | Jul 1996 | 6 | Nov 1996 | 4 | 10 | 3.28 |
| -4.87% | Jul 1998 | Aug 1998 | 2 | Sep 1998 | 1 | 3 | 2.52 |
| -4.57% | Dec 1996 | Mar 1997 | 4 | Jun 1997 | 3 | 7 | 2.25 |
| -3.83% | Sep 2011 | Sep 2011 | 1 | Nov 2011 | 2 | 3 | 1.93 |
| -3.40% | Dec 2009 | Jan 2010 | 2 | Apr 2010 | 3 | 5 | 2.05 |
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period |
Recovery period |
Total |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drawdown | Start | Bottom | #Months | End | #Months | #Months | Ulcer Index |
| -30.22% | Sep 1929 | May 1932 | 33 | Jun 1933 | 13 | 46 | 15.45 |
| -16.43% | Jan 2022 | Sep 2022 | 9 | in progress | 14 | 23 | 9.30 |
| -14.34% | Dec 1980 | Sep 1981 | 10 | Aug 1982 | 11 | 21 | 8.76 |
| -13.70% | Mar 1937 | Mar 1938 | 13 | Oct 1939 | 19 | 32 | 5.72 |
| -13.28% | Mar 2008 | Oct 2008 | 8 | Aug 2009 | 10 | 18 | 5.20 |
| -13.17% | Feb 1980 | Mar 1980 | 2 | Jun 1980 | 3 | 5 | 6.15 |
| -13.14% | May 1969 | May 1970 | 13 | Jan 1971 | 8 | 21 | 7.88 |
| -11.98% | Jan 1876 | Jun 1877 | 18 | May 1879 | 23 | 41 | 6.59 |
| -11.37% | Apr 1974 | Sep 1974 | 6 | Jan 1975 | 4 | 10 | 5.96 |
| -9.64% | Oct 1906 | Nov 1907 | 14 | Nov 1908 | 12 | 26 | 4.84 |
| -7.68% | Jul 1975 | Sep 1975 | 3 | Feb 1976 | 5 | 8 | 3.55 |
| -7.59% | May 1983 | May 1984 | 13 | Oct 1984 | 5 | 18 | 3.64 |
| -7.31% | Sep 1892 | Aug 1893 | 12 | Feb 1895 | 18 | 30 | 2.88 |
| -7.14% | Oct 1895 | Aug 1896 | 11 | Jan 1897 | 5 | 16 | 3.32 |
| -6.69% | Apr 2013 | Jun 2013 | 3 | Feb 2014 | 8 | 11 | 3.22 |
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period |
Recovery period |
Total |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drawdown | Start | Bottom | #Months | End | #Months | #Months | Ulcer Index |
| -49.37% | Jul 1911 | Jun 1920 | 108 | May 1927 | 83 | 191 | 23.82 |
| -25.58% | Feb 1980 | Jun 1982 | 29 | Dec 1982 | 6 | 35 | 15.03 |
| -25.01% | Feb 1946 | Sep 1948 | 32 | Nov 1955 | 86 | 118 | 16.72 |
| -23.93% | Jan 2021 | Sep 2022 | 21 | in progress | 14 | 35 | 14.47 |
| -19.68% | Sep 1968 | Jun 1970 | 22 | Jan 1972 | 19 | 41 | 9.97 |
| -16.84% | Mar 1974 | Sep 1974 | 7 | Aug 1978 | 47 | 54 | 7.75 |
| -16.58% | Nov 1905 | Oct 1907 | 24 | Feb 1911 | 40 | 64 | 8.21 |
| -15.27% | Dec 1940 | Apr 1942 | 17 | Apr 1945 | 36 | 53 | 8.48 |
| -15.24% | Mar 2008 | Oct 2008 | 8 | Sep 2009 | 11 | 19 | 6.29 |
| -14.30% | Jul 1876 | Jan 1877 | 7 | Jan 1878 | 12 | 19 | 8.73 |
| -13.97% | Jul 1901 | Feb 1904 | 32 | Aug 1905 | 18 | 50 | 8.11 |
| -13.70% | Mar 1937 | Mar 1938 | 13 | May 1939 | 14 | 27 | 6.93 |
| -13.11% | Jul 1931 | May 1932 | 11 | Aug 1932 | 3 | 14 | 7.93 |
| -12.42% | Feb 1899 | Dec 1899 | 11 | Feb 1901 | 14 | 25 | 7.73 |
| -12.33% | Jul 1892 | Feb 1893 | 8 | Feb 1894 | 12 | 20 | 7.29 |
Rolling Returns
( more details)
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
SIMPLIFIED PERMANENT PORTFOLIO
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 December 1993 - 30 November 2023 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 30 November 2023 (~153 years)
Swipe left to see all data
| Rolling Period |
Worst Period |
15th Percentile |
50th Percentile |
85th Percentile |
Best Period |
Latest | Negative Periods |
|||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ann. Return |
From To |
Growth of 1$ |
Ann. Return |
Growth of 1$ |
Ann. Return |
Growth of 1$ |
Ann. Return |
Growth of 1$ |
Ann. Return |
From To |
Growth of 1$ |
|||
| 1Y | -14.62 |
11/2021 10/2022 |
0.85$ | 0.82 | 1.00$ | 6.66 | 1.06$ | 14.25 | 1.14$ | 23.00 |
02/1995 01/1996 |
1.23$ | 6.25 | 11.46% |
| 2Y | -5.51 |
10/2020 09/2022 |
0.89$ | 2.78 | 1.05$ | 7.40 | 1.15$ | 11.52 | 1.24$ | 18.93 |
11/2008 10/2010 |
1.41$ | -2.24 | 5.34% |
| 3Y | -1.62 |
10/2020 09/2023 |
0.95$ | 3.60 | 1.11$ | 7.68 | 1.24$ | 10.50 | 1.34$ | 16.78 |
11/2008 10/2011 |
1.59$ | 0.12 | 1.23% |
| 5Y | 2.76 |
02/2012 01/2017 |
1.14$ | 4.51 | 1.24$ | 7.19 | 1.41$ | 9.80 | 1.59$ | 11.77 |
03/2003 02/2008 |
1.74$ | 5.73 | 0.00% |
| 7Y | 3.15 |
11/2011 10/2018 |
1.24$ | 5.07 | 1.41$ | 7.10 | 1.61$ | 9.32 | 1.86$ | 10.92 |
09/2004 08/2011 |
2.06$ | 5.23 | 0.00% |
| 10Y | 3.16 |
10/2012 09/2022 |
1.36$ | 6.05 | 1.80$ | 7.51 | 2.06$ | 8.75 | 2.31$ | 10.42 |
02/2002 01/2012 |
2.69$ | 4.66 | 0.00% |
| 15Y | 5.26 |
03/2008 02/2023 |
2.15$ | 7.00 | 2.75$ | 7.77 | 3.07$ | 8.27 | 3.29$ | 8.98 |
09/1996 08/2011 |
3.63$ | 6.30 | 0.00% |
| 20Y | 6.36 |
11/2003 10/2023 |
3.43$ | 6.83 | 3.74$ | 7.38 | 4.15$ | 7.92 | 4.59$ | 8.38 |
02/1995 01/2015 |
5.00$ | 6.58 | 0.00% |
| 30Y | 6.75 |
12/1993 11/2023 |
7.08$ | 6.75 | 7.08$ | 6.75 | 7.08$ | 6.75 | 7.08$ | 6.75 |
12/1993 11/2023 |
7.08$ | 6.75 | 0.00% |
| Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods | ||||||||||||||
Swipe left to see all data
| Rolling Period |
Worst Period |
15th Percentile |
50th Percentile |
85th Percentile |
Best Period |
Latest | Negative Periods |
|||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ann. Return |
From To |
Growth of 1$ |
Ann. Return |
Growth of 1$ |
Ann. Return |
Growth of 1$ |
Ann. Return |
Growth of 1$ |
Ann. Return |
From To |
Growth of 1$ |
|||
| 1Y | -20.76 |
11/2021 10/2022 |
0.79$ | -1.40 | 0.98$ | 4.06 | 1.04$ | 11.54 | 1.11$ | 19.75 |
11/2008 10/2009 |
1.19$ | 2.81 | 21.49% |
| 2Y | -11.52 |
10/2020 09/2022 |
0.78$ | 0.85 | 1.01$ | 4.94 | 1.10$ | 8.97 | 1.18$ | 18.35 |
11/2008 10/2010 |
1.40$ | -7.08 | 10.98% |
| 3Y | -6.96 |
10/2020 09/2023 |
0.80$ | 1.62 | 1.04$ | 5.33 | 1.16$ | 7.96 | 1.25$ | 15.06 |
11/2008 10/2011 |
1.52$ | -5.32 | 6.15% |
| 5Y | -0.40 |
11/2017 10/2022 |
0.98$ | 2.34 | 1.12$ | 4.64 | 1.25$ | 7.16 | 1.41$ | 9.41 |
11/2008 10/2013 |
1.56$ | 1.60 | 0.66% |
| 7Y | 0.10 |
10/2016 09/2023 |
1.00$ | 2.98 | 1.22$ | 4.78 | 1.38$ | 6.64 | 1.56$ | 8.40 |
11/2005 10/2012 |
1.75$ | 1.65 | 0.00% |
| 10Y | 0.63 |
10/2012 09/2022 |
1.06$ | 4.12 | 1.49$ | 5.06 | 1.63$ | 6.30 | 1.84$ | 7.78 |
08/2002 07/2012 |
2.11$ | 1.79 | 0.00% |
| 15Y | 2.82 |
03/2008 02/2023 |
1.51$ | 4.65 | 1.97$ | 5.45 | 2.21$ | 5.90 | 2.36$ | 6.36 |
09/1996 08/2011 |
2.52$ | 3.70 | 0.00% |
| 20Y | 3.69 |
11/2003 10/2023 |
2.06$ | 4.41 | 2.37$ | 5.10 | 2.70$ | 5.60 | 2.97$ | 6.02 |
02/1995 01/2015 |
3.21$ | 3.88 | 0.00% |
| 30Y | 4.12 |
12/1993 11/2023 |
3.35$ | 4.12 | 3.35$ | 4.12 | 3.35$ | 4.12 | 3.35$ | 4.12 |
12/1993 11/2023 |
3.35$ | 4.12 | 0.00% |
| Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods | ||||||||||||||
Swipe left to see all data
| Rolling Period |
Worst Period |
15th Percentile |
50th Percentile |
85th Percentile |
Best Period |
Latest | Negative Periods |
|||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ann. Return |
From To |
Growth of 1$ |
Ann. Return |
Growth of 1$ |
Ann. Return |
Growth of 1$ |
Ann. Return |
Growth of 1$ |
Ann. Return |
From To |
Growth of 1$ |
|||
| 1Y | -21.03 |
07/1931 06/1932 |
0.78$ | -0.60 | 0.99$ | 5.23 | 1.05$ | 12.64 | 1.12$ | 48.12 |
07/1932 06/1933 |
1.48$ | 6.25 | 17.54% |
| 2Y | -14.88 |
06/1930 05/1932 |
0.72$ | 1.09 | 1.02$ | 5.44 | 1.11$ | 10.53 | 1.22$ | 29.39 |
07/1978 06/1980 |
1.67$ | -2.24 | 9.33% |
| 3Y | -9.97 |
07/1929 06/1932 |
0.72$ | 1.91 | 1.05$ | 5.34 | 1.16$ | 9.95 | 1.32$ | 22.17 |
07/1970 06/1973 |
1.82$ | 0.12 | 3.94% |
| 5Y | -2.38 |
06/1927 05/1932 |
0.88$ | 2.44 | 1.12$ | 5.22 | 1.28$ | 9.57 | 1.57$ | 18.07 |
04/1982 03/1987 |
2.29$ | 5.73 | 0.62% |
| 7Y | 0.56 |
07/1925 06/1932 |
1.04$ | 2.83 | 1.21$ | 5.17 | 1.42$ | 9.32 | 1.86$ | 15.09 |
02/1973 01/1980 |
2.67$ | 5.23 | 0.00% |
| 10Y | 1.46 |
09/1886 08/1896 |
1.15$ | 3.32 | 1.38$ | 5.10 | 1.64$ | 8.92 | 2.34$ | 15.78 |
07/1970 06/1980 |
4.32$ | 4.66 | 0.00% |
| 15Y | 2.01 |
01/1906 12/1920 |
1.34$ | 3.67 | 1.71$ | 4.97 | 2.07$ | 8.94 | 3.61$ | 13.37 |
09/1971 08/1986 |
6.56$ | 6.30 | 0.00% |
| 20Y | 2.12 |
07/1901 06/1921 |
1.52$ | 3.56 | 2.01$ | 5.02 | 2.66$ | 8.93 | 5.53$ | 12.21 |
06/1970 05/1990 |
10.02$ | 6.58 | 0.00% |
| 30Y | 2.65 |
06/1902 05/1932 |
2.19$ | 3.84 | 3.09$ | 5.00 | 4.32$ | 9.24 | 14.17$ | 10.89 |
07/1970 06/2000 |
22.20$ | 6.75 | 0.00% |
| Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods | ||||||||||||||
Swipe left to see all data
| Rolling Period |
Worst Period |
15th Percentile |
50th Percentile |
85th Percentile |
Best Period |
Latest | Negative Periods |
|||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ann. Return |
From To |
Growth of 1$ |
Ann. Return |
Growth of 1$ |
Ann. Return |
Growth of 1$ |
Ann. Return |
Growth of 1$ |
Ann. Return |
From To |
Growth of 1$ |
|||
| 1Y | -22.63 |
10/1980 09/1981 |
0.77$ | -4.29 | 0.95$ | 3.85 | 1.03$ | 11.81 | 1.11$ | 58.61 |
07/1932 06/1933 |
1.58$ | 2.81 | 30.59% |
| 2Y | -15.92 |
12/1916 11/1918 |
0.70$ | -1.32 | 0.97$ | 3.84 | 1.07$ | 9.41 | 1.19$ | 25.26 |
06/1932 05/1934 |
1.56$ | -7.08 | 22.02% |
| 3Y | -13.46 |
02/1917 01/1920 |
0.64$ | -0.41 | 0.98$ | 3.66 | 1.11$ | 8.41 | 1.27$ | 17.08 |
07/1932 06/1935 |
1.60$ | -5.32 | 16.33% |
| 5Y | -11.23 |
07/1915 06/1920 |
0.55$ | 0.30 | 1.01$ | 3.78 | 1.20$ | 7.36 | 1.42$ | 14.40 |
07/1982 06/1987 |
1.95$ | 1.60 | 13.34% |
| 7Y | -8.12 |
06/1913 05/1920 |
0.55$ | 0.32 | 1.02$ | 4.04 | 1.31$ | 7.12 | 1.61$ | 10.67 |
08/1920 07/1927 |
2.03$ | 1.65 | 12.33% |
| 10Y | -5.19 |
12/1910 11/1920 |
0.58$ | 0.50 | 1.05$ | 3.97 | 1.47$ | 6.51 | 1.87$ | 9.54 |
06/1920 05/1930 |
2.48$ | 1.79 | 11.83% |
| 15Y | -3.95 |
08/1905 07/1920 |
0.54$ | 0.80 | 1.12$ | 3.74 | 1.73$ | 5.90 | 2.36$ | 9.15 |
08/1920 07/1935 |
3.71$ | 3.70 | 8.76% |
| 20Y | -2.19 |
07/1900 06/1920 |
0.64$ | 1.28 | 1.28$ | 3.59 | 2.02$ | 5.53 | 2.93$ | 7.58 |
08/1920 07/1940 |
4.31$ | 3.88 | 6.89% |
| 30Y | -0.29 |
07/1890 06/1920 |
0.91$ | 1.49 | 1.55$ | 3.27 | 2.62$ | 4.94 | 4.24$ | 6.60 |
07/1982 06/2012 |
6.80$ | 4.12 | 0.41% |
| Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods | ||||||||||||||
If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Simplified Permanent Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.
Seasonality
In which months is it better to invest in Simplified Permanent Portfolio?
Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.
For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
Swipe left to see all data
| Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return (%) | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
| Average Gain Frequency |
1.31
60% |
-0.96
40% |
0.62
40% |
0.80
80% |
0.52
60% |
0.56
60% |
2.23
100% |
0.02
60% |
-2.99
0% |
0.57
80% |
2.36
60% |
0.91
80% |
| Best |
5.0 2023 |
0.8 2022 |
4.5 2023 |
4.6 2020 |
2.1 2021 |
4.4 2019 |
4.6 2020 |
3.3 2019 |
-1.0 2019 |
2.1 2021 |
5.3 2023 |
2.9 2020 |
| Worst |
-3.0 2022 |
-3.6 2023 |
-1.2 2020 |
-4.8 2022 |
-0.9 2023 |
-2.8 2022 |
0.4 2019 |
-3.6 2022 |
-5.3 2022 |
-1.3 2020 |
-0.1 2019 |
-1.3 2022 |
Monthly Seasonality over the period Feb 1871 - Nov 2023
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| Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return (%) | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
| Average Gain Frequency |
1.64
80% |
0.04
50% |
0.32
40% |
0.63
70% |
0.36
70% |
0.61
50% |
1.21
80% |
0.29
60% |
-1.92
10% |
0.22
70% |
1.01
60% |
0.41
60% |
| Best |
5.0 2023 |
3.6 2016 |
4.5 2023 |
4.6 2020 |
2.1 2021 |
4.4 2019 |
4.6 2020 |
3.3 2019 |
0.4 2016 |
2.1 2015 |
5.3 2023 |
2.9 2020 |
| Worst |
-3.0 2022 |
-3.6 2023 |
-1.2 2020 |
-4.8 2022 |
-1.4 2016 |
-2.8 2022 |
-1.5 2014 |
-3.6 2022 |
-5.3 2022 |
-2.1 2016 |
-3.3 2016 |
-1.3 2022 |
Monthly Seasonality over the period Feb 1871 - Nov 2023
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| Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return (%) | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
| Average Gain Frequency |
0.78
67% |
0.39
60% |
0.28
63% |
0.52
62% |
0.39
59% |
0.39
60% |
0.47
62% |
0.53
65% |
0.28
61% |
0.33
61% |
0.73
66% |
0.74
69% |
| Best |
15.2 1933 |
6.7 1974 |
4.8 1986 |
8.6 1980 |
7.7 1973 |
7.4 1980 |
7.1 1932 |
10.4 1982 |
7.5 1979 |
8.1 1982 |
6.0 2009 |
9.6 1979 |
| Worst |
-4.7 1981 |
-4.3 1980 |
-9.3 1980 |
-4.8 2022 |
-6.5 1940 |
-4.2 1930 |
-2.7 1973 |
-3.8 1973 |
-7.1 1931 |
-8.3 2008 |
-5.2 1978 |
-3.7 1931 |
Monthly Seasonality over the period Feb 1871 - Nov 2023
Monthly Returns
This section provides a visual/tabular representation of the performance variability in the Simplified Permanent Portfolio over time. It illustrates the distribution of monthly returns, showcasing the range and frequency of positive and negative returns.
SIMPLIFIED PERMANENT PORTFOLIO
Monthly Returns Distribution
Data Source: 1 December 1993 - 30 November 2023 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 30 November 2023 (~153 years)
223 Positive Months (62%) - 137 Negative Months (38%)
1154 Positive Months (63%) - 681 Negative Months (37%)
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(Scroll down to see all data)
Investment Returns, up to December 2004, are simulated.
They have been derived using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.
In particular, the series derived from equivalent datasets are:
They have been derived using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.
In particular, the series derived from equivalent datasets are:
- VTI - Vanguard Total Stock Market, up to December 2001
- IEF - iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond, up to December 2002
- GLD - SPDR Gold Trust, up to December 2004
Portfolio efficiency
No other portfolio in our database granted a higher return over 30 Years and a less severe drawdown at the same time.
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30 Years Stats (%) |
% Allocation |
|||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | Return▾ | Dev.Std | Drawdown | Stocks | Bonds | Comm | ||
| Simplified Permanent Portfolio | +6.75 | 6.88 | -16.43 | 25 | 50 | 25 | ||
The following portfolios share asset allocation strategy and/or similar asset weights.
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5 Years Stats (%) |
% Allocation |
|||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | Return▾ | Dev.Std | Drawdown | Stocks | Bonds | Comm | ||
| Permanent Portfolio with Bitcoin | +7.42 | 9.21 | -16.88 | 25 | 50 | 25 | ||
| Simplified Permanent Portfolio 2x Leveraged | +6.91 | 16.89 | -31.96 | 25 | 50 | 25 | ||
| All Weather Portfolio 2x Leveraged | +6.32 | 21.42 | -37.02 | 37.5 | 55 | 7.5 | ||
| All Weather Portfolio with Bitcoin | +6.28 | 10.75 | -21.81 | 30 | 55 | 15 | ||
| Permanent Portfolio | +5.76 | 8.53 | -15.92 | 25 | 50 | 25 | ||
| Simplified Permanent Portfolio | +5.73 | 8.63 | -16.43 | 25 | 50 | 25 | ||
| All Weather Portfolio | +4.70 | 10.06 | -20.58 | 30 | 55 | 15 | ||
Here's a list containing the Best Classic Portfolios, with the highest returns over 30 Years and Medium Risk categorization.
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30 Years Stats (%) |
% Allocation |
|||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | Return▾ | Dev.Std | Drawdown | Stocks | Bonds | Comm | ||
| Couch Potato | +7.83 | 8.76 | -27.04 | 50 | 50 | 0 | ||
| Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Momentum | +7.75 | 6.99 | -21.11 | 40 | 60 | 0 | ||
| All Weather Portfolio | +7.19 | 7.39 | -20.58 | 30 | 55 | 15 | ||
| Robo Advisor 50 | +7.16 | 9.32 | -30.72 | 49.9 | 50.1 | 0 | ||
| One-Decision Portfolio | +6.85 | 8.38 | -31.96 | 50 | 50 | 0 | ||
Analyze your Portfolio: Backtest Now!
Explore historical data since 1871 and fine-tune your investment strategy for better results.
Explore historical data since 1871 and fine-tune your investment strategy for better results.
