Rick Ferri Core Four Portfolio vs Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio Portfolio Comparison

Simulation Settings

Period: January 1976 - July 2025 (~50 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 31 July 2025

Initial Amount: 1$

Rebalancing: at every Jan 1^st

Currency: USD

Inflation: US

(Change Settings)

Results

30 Years
(1995/08 - 2025/07)

All Data
(1976/01 - 2025/07)

Inflation Adjusted:

Rick Ferri Core Four Portfolio

1.00$
Invested Capital
August 1995
10.83$
Final Capital
July 2025
8.27%
Yearly Return
12.27%
Std Deviation
-44.44%
Max Drawdown
40months
Recovery Period

1.00$
Invested Capital
August 1995
5.14$
Final Capital
July 2025
5.61%
Yearly Return
12.27%
Std Deviation
-45.36%
Max Drawdown
63months
Recovery Period

1.00$
Invested Capital
January 1976
134.48$
Final Capital
July 2025
10.39%
Yearly Return
12.00%
Std Deviation
-44.44%
Max Drawdown
40months
Recovery Period

1.00$
Invested Capital
January 1976
23.25$
Final Capital
July 2025
6.55%
Yearly Return
12.00%
Std Deviation
-45.36%
Max Drawdown
63months
Recovery Period

Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio

1.00$
Invested Capital
August 1995
11.37$
Final Capital
July 2025
8.44%
Yearly Return
15.77%
Std Deviation
-57.21%
Max Drawdown
63months
Recovery Period

1.00$
Invested Capital
August 1995
5.40$
Final Capital
July 2025
5.78%
Yearly Return
15.77%
Std Deviation
-57.92%
Max Drawdown
71months
Recovery Period

1.00$
Invested Capital
January 1976
229.81$
Final Capital
July 2025
11.59%
Yearly Return
15.29%
Std Deviation
-57.21%
Max Drawdown
63months
Recovery Period

1.00$
Invested Capital
January 1976
39.73$
Final Capital
July 2025
7.71%
Yearly Return
15.29%
Std Deviation
-57.92%
Max Drawdown
71months
Recovery Period

As of July 2025, in the previous 30 Years, the Rick Ferri Core Four Portfolio obtained a 8.27% compound annual return, with a 12.27% standard deviation. It suffered a maximum drawdown of -44.44% that required 40 months to be recovered.

As of July 2025, in the previous 30 Years, the Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio obtained a 8.44% compound annual return, with a 15.77% standard deviation. It suffered a maximum drawdown of -57.21% that required 63 months to be recovered.

Disclaimer: The simulations on this website are provided in good faith but should NOT be taken as investment advice. We are not liable for any errors or actions based on this information. The authors of the website are not affiliated with the portfolio creators, who are the sole owners of their intellectual property. The translation of asset allocations into ETFs is based on the interpretation of LazyPortfolioETF.com and may not exactly reflect the original intent of the portfolio creators. Content is for informational, educational, illustrative, and entertainment purposes only.

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Asset Allocations and ETFs

The compared portfolios have the following asset allocations.

Rick Ferri Core Four Portfolio

Weight (%)	Ticker	Name
48.00	VTI	Vanguard Total Stock Market
24.00	VEU	Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US
8.00	VNQ	Vanguard Real Estate
20.00	BND	Vanguard Total Bond Market

Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio

Weight (%)	Ticker	Name
10.00	DLS	WisdomTree International SmallCp Div
10.00	EEM	iShares MSCI Emerging Markets
10.00	IJR	iShares Core S&P Small-Cap
10.00	IJS	iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value
10.00	SPY	SPDR S&P 500
10.00	VTV	Vanguard Value
10.00	VEA	Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets
10.00	SCZ	iShares MSCI EAFE Small-Cap
10.00	EFV	iShares MSCI EAFE Value
10.00	VNQ	Vanguard Real Estate

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Portfolio Returns as of Jul 31, 2025

Returns are calculated in USD, assuming:

no fees or capital gain taxes.
rebalancing: at every Jan 1^st.
dividend reinvestment, when applicable.

Return Comparison

Capital Growth

30 Years
(1995/08 - 2025/07)

All Data
(1976/01 - 2025/07)

Inflation Adjusted:

Swipe left to see all data

	Initial Amount $	Final Amount $	Total Return (%)	Annualized (%)
Core Four Rick Ferri	1 $	10.83 $	983.25%	8.27%
Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Paul Merriman	1 $	11.37 $	1 037.42%	8.44%
	Aug 1995	Jul 2025

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	Initial Amount $	Final Amount $	Total Return (%)	Annualized (%)
Core Four Rick Ferri	1 $	5.14 $	414.03%	5.61%
Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Paul Merriman	1 $	5.40 $	439.74%	5.78%
	Aug 1995	Jul 2025

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	Initial Amount $	Final Amount $	Total Return (%)	Annualized (%)
Core Four Rick Ferri	1 $	134.48 $	13 347.94%	10.39%
Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Paul Merriman	1 $	229.81 $	22 880.88%	11.59%
	Jan 1976	Jul 2025

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	Initial Amount $	Final Amount $	Total Return (%)	Annualized (%)
Core Four Rick Ferri	1 $	23.25 $	2 225.08%	6.55%
Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Paul Merriman	1 $	39.73 $	3 873.27%	7.71%
	Jan 1976	Jul 2025

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		Return (%) as of Jul 31, 2025
		YTD (7M)	1M	6M	1Y	5Y	10Y	30Y	MAX (~50Y)
	Core Four Rick Ferri	8.88	0.79	6.19	12.01	9.89	8.67	8.27	10.39
	Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Paul Merriman	10.95	0.33	7.80	10.14	10.97	7.76	8.44	11.59
Returns over 1 year are annualized.

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Portfolio Metrics as of Jul 31, 2025

The following metrics, updated as of 31 July 2025, provide an overview of performance and risk, with the best value in each row highlighted within the table.

METRIC COMPARISON

Period: 1 August 2024 - 31 July 2025 (1 year)

Period: 1 August 2020 - 31 July 2025 (5 years)

Period: 1 August 2015 - 31 July 2025 (10 years)

Period: 1 August 1995 - 31 July 2025 (30 years)

Period: 1 January 1976 - 31 July 2025 (~50 years)

1 Year

5 Years

10 Years

30 Years

All (1976/01 - 2025/07)

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	Core Four	Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy
Author	Rick Ferri	Paul Merriman
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks	80%	100%
Fixed Income	20%	0%
Commodities	0%	0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%)	12.01	10.14
Infl. Adjusted (%)	9.20	7.38
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%)	-3.23	-4.57
Start to Recovery (months)	6	6
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)	-3.23	-4.57
Start to Recovery (months)	6	6
Longest Negative Period (months)	7	8
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%)	8.55	9.66
Sharpe Ratio	0.87	0.58
Sortino Ratio	1.14	0.75
Ulcer Index	1.63	2.09
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation	1.41	1.05
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown	3.72	2.22
Metrics calculated over the period 1 August 2024 - 31 July 2025

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	Core Four	Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy
Author	Rick Ferri	Paul Merriman
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks	80%	100%
Fixed Income	20%	0%
Commodities	0%	0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%)	9.89	10.97
Infl. Adjusted (%)	5.19	6.22
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%)	-23.46	-24.70
Start to Recovery (months)	26	27
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)	-23.46	-24.70
Start to Recovery (months)	26	27
Longest Negative Period (months)	34	34
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%)	13.23	15.72
Sharpe Ratio	0.54	0.52
Sortino Ratio	0.73	0.74
Ulcer Index	8.32	7.98
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation	0.75	0.70
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown	0.42	0.44
Metrics calculated over the period 1 August 2020 - 31 July 2025

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	Core Four	Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy
Author	Rick Ferri	Paul Merriman
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks	80%	100%
Fixed Income	20%	0%
Commodities	0%	0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%)	8.67	7.76
Infl. Adjusted (%)	5.45	4.56
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%)	-23.46	-27.54
Start to Recovery (months)	26	11
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)	-23.46	-24.70
Start to Recovery (months)	26	27
Longest Negative Period (months)	34	44
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%)	12.46	15.58
Sharpe Ratio	0.55	0.38
Sortino Ratio	0.72	0.50
Ulcer Index	6.56	7.74
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation	0.70	0.50
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown	0.37	0.28
Metrics calculated over the period 1 August 2015 - 31 July 2025

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	Core Four	Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy
Author	Rick Ferri	Paul Merriman
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks	80%	100%
Fixed Income	20%	0%
Commodities	0%	0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%)	8.27	8.44
Infl. Adjusted (%)	5.61	5.78
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%)	-44.44	-57.21
Start to Recovery (months)	40	63
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)	-27.90	-57.21
Start to Recovery (months)	42	63
Longest Negative Period (months)	116	68
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%)	12.27	15.77
Sharpe Ratio	0.49	0.39
Sortino Ratio	0.64	0.51
Ulcer Index	9.88	12.16
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation	0.67	0.54
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown	0.19	0.15
Metrics calculated over the period 1 August 1995 - 31 July 2025

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	Core Four	Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy
Author	Rick Ferri	Paul Merriman
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks	80%	100%
Fixed Income	20%	0%
Commodities	0%	0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%)	10.39	11.59
Infl. Adjusted (%)	6.55	7.71
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%)	-44.44	-57.21
Start to Recovery (months)	40	63
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)	-27.90	-57.21
Start to Recovery (months)	42	63
Longest Negative Period (months)	116	68
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%)	12.00	15.29
Sharpe Ratio	0.51	0.48
Sortino Ratio	0.68	0.63
Ulcer Index	8.10	10.13
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation	0.87	0.76
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown	0.23	0.20
Metrics calculated over the period 1 January 1976 - 31 July 2025

Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

DRAWDOWN COMPARISON

Period: 1 August 1995 - 31 July 2025 (30 years)

Period: 1 January 1976 - 31 July 2025 (~50 years)

30 Years
(1995/08 - 2025/07)

Chart Table

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Core Four			Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy
Drawdown (%)	Recovery (#Months)	From To	Drawdown (%)	Recovery (#Months)	From To
			-57.21	63	Nov 2007 Jan 2013
-44.44	40	Nov 2007 Feb 2011
-27.90	42	Sep 2000 Feb 2004
			-27.54	11	Jan 2020 Nov 2020
			-24.70	27	Jan 2022 Mar 2024
-23.46	26	Jan 2022 Feb 2024
			-20.46	13	Apr 1998 Apr 1999
			-20.10	30	Feb 2001 Jul 2003
-17.12	7	Jan 2020 Jul 2020
-15.17	11	May 2011 Mar 2012
			-15.11	22	Feb 2018 Nov 2019
-12.55	5	Jul 1998 Nov 1998
			-12.10	14	Jun 2015 Jul 2016
-10.12	8	Sep 2018 Apr 2019
			-8.65	5	Sep 2000 Jan 2001

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Core Four			Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy
Drawdown (%)	Recovery (#Months)	From To	Drawdown (%)	Recovery (#Months)	From To
			-57.21	63	Nov 2007 Jan 2013
-44.44	40	Nov 2007 Feb 2011
-27.90	42	Sep 2000 Feb 2004
			-27.54	11	Jan 2020 Nov 2020
			-25.26	17	Sep 1987 Jan 1989
			-24.70	27	Jan 2022 Mar 2024
-23.46	26	Jan 2022 Feb 2024
			-21.87	17	Jan 1990 May 1991
			-20.46	13	Apr 1998 Apr 1999
			-20.10	30	Feb 2001 Jul 2003
			-19.82	18	Jun 1981 Nov 1982
-19.07	17	Sep 1987 Jan 1989
-17.12	7	Jan 2020 Jul 2020
-15.17	11	May 2011 Mar 2012
			-15.11	22	Feb 2018 Nov 2019

Rolling Returns

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the Simulation Settings.

You can explore the Rolling Returns for a single portfolio, or check the return differential, by switching on "Head To Head" toggle.

Rolling Returns Comparison

Annualized Rolling Returns Chart

Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted

Time Period: 1 January 1976 - 31 July 2025 (~50 years)

Rolling Period:

Core Four
Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy

Head To Head (Ptf 1 vs Ptf 2):

US Inflation Adjusted:

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Yearly Returns

For each year, the following table provides the return and intra-year drawdown. The highlighted returns represent the highest values for that specific year.

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	Core Four		Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy
Year	Return (%)	Drawdown (%)	Return (%)	Drawdown (%)
2025	8.88	-2.87	10.95	-1.54
2024	13.43	-3.81	8.12	-4.57
2023	18.34	-8.99	15.12	-11.49
2022	-17.83	-23.46	-15.37	-24.70
2021	17.18	-3.72	19.37	-3.67
2020	13.93	-17.12	6.40	-27.54
2019	24.04	-4.20	23.62	-6.09
2018	-6.41	-10.12	-11.86	-15.11
2017	17.86	0.00	21.78	-0.19
2016	8.53	-4.54	12.36	-6.13
2015	-0.67	-7.93	-1.21	-10.45
2014	8.52	-2.80	3.86	-4.78
2013	19.22	-2.72	24.33	-3.16
2012	14.47	-6.30	18.52	-9.57
2011	-0.63	-15.17	-6.03	-21.49
2010	14.71	-9.66	17.95	-12.96
2009	26.02	-16.84	32.93	-22.58
2008	-29.77	-33.12	-39.47	-43.68
2007	6.37	-4.87	3.86	-8.69
2006	17.60	-2.92	25.26	-4.59
2005	8.20	-2.68	14.55	-4.36
2004	14.45	-3.58	24.50	-4.95
2003	28.09	-3.31	45.35	-4.40
2002	-11.49	-17.29	-8.70	-19.82
2001	-7.43	-16.02	-4.24	-16.27
2000	-4.44	-9.70	-0.62	-8.65
1999	18.14	-2.86	20.93	-3.33
1998	15.32	-12.55	4.55	-20.46
1997	18.08	-4.11	7.53	-6.22
1996	14.61	-3.35	14.79	-4.92
1995	22.74	-1.10	16.47	-2.82
1994	1.06	-5.04	-2.37	-7.70
1993	15.79	-3.96	30.62	-3.22
1992	3.42	-3.82	7.12	-3.87
1991	23.73	-4.00	32.16	-5.51
1990	-8.36	-14.61	-15.66	-21.87
1989	20.02	-2.01	27.73	-3.75
1988	17.02	-2.82	25.20	-2.71
1987	8.59	-19.07	6.29	-25.26
1986	26.76	-4.50	33.82	-4.97
1985	33.14	-2.36	40.18	-2.65
1984	6.41	-6.59	7.34	-6.12
1983	20.06	-2.93	26.91	-2.38
1982	17.46	-9.28	9.42	-16.41
1981	-0.58	-10.04	-0.23	-10.99
1980	24.04	-10.43	24.58	-12.52
1979	17.81	-7.52	19.34	-9.15
1978	12.62	-7.80	21.17	-9.46
1977	4.23	-3.09	13.48	-1.92
1976	19.80	-2.37	22.54	-3.46

Table of contents

Resources & Extras

Asset Allocations and ETFs

Portfolio Returns as of Jul 31, 2025

Portfolio Metrics as of Jul 31, 2025

Drawdowns

Rolling Returns

Yearly Returns