Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio vs Warren Buffett Portfolio Portfolio Comparison

Simulation Settings

Period: January 1976 - April 2025 (~49 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 30 April 2025

Rebalancing: at every Jan 1^st

Currency: USD

Inflation: US

(Change Settings)

Results

30 Years

All (since January 1976)

Inflation Adjusted:

Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio

1.00$
Initial Capital
May 1995
11.13$
Final Capital
April 2025
8.36%
Yearly Return
15.76%
Std Deviation
-57.21%
Max Drawdown
63months
Recovery Period

1.00$
Initial Capital
May 1995
5.28$
Final Capital
April 2025
5.71%
Yearly Return
15.76%
Std Deviation
-57.92%
Max Drawdown
71months
Recovery Period

1.00$
Initial Capital
January 1976
210.74$
Final Capital
April 2025
11.46%
Yearly Return
15.32%
Std Deviation
-57.21%
Max Drawdown
63months
Recovery Period

1.00$
Initial Capital
January 1976
36.65$
Final Capital
April 2025
7.57%
Yearly Return
15.32%
Std Deviation
-57.92%
Max Drawdown
71months
Recovery Period

Warren Buffett Portfolio

1.00$
Initial Capital
May 1995
16.48$
Final Capital
April 2025
9.79%
Yearly Return
13.70%
Std Deviation
-45.52%
Max Drawdown
42months
Recovery Period

1.00$
Initial Capital
May 1995
7.82$
Final Capital
April 2025
7.10%
Yearly Return
13.70%
Std Deviation
-47.08%
Max Drawdown
149months
Recovery Period

1.00$
Initial Capital
January 1976
180.05$
Final Capital
April 2025
11.10%
Yearly Return
13.60%
Std Deviation
-45.52%
Max Drawdown
42months
Recovery Period

1.00$
Initial Capital
January 1976
31.31$
Final Capital
April 2025
7.23%
Yearly Return
13.60%
Std Deviation
-47.08%
Max Drawdown
149months
Recovery Period

As of April 2025, in the previous 30 Years, the Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio obtained a 8.36% compound annual return, with a 15.76% standard deviation. It suffered a maximum drawdown of -57.21% that required 63 months to be recovered.

As of April 2025, in the previous 30 Years, the Warren Buffett Portfolio obtained a 9.79% compound annual return, with a 13.70% standard deviation. It suffered a maximum drawdown of -45.52% that required 42 months to be recovered.

Disclaimer: The simulations on this website are provided in good faith but should NOT be taken as investment advice. We are not liable for any errors or actions based on this information. The authors of the website are not affiliated with the portfolio creators, who are the sole owners of their intellectual property. The translation of asset allocations into ETFs is based on the interpretation of LazyPortfolioETF.com and may not exactly reflect the original intent of the portfolio creators. Content is for informational, educational, illustrative, and entertainment purposes only.

Resources & Extras

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Asset Allocations and ETFs

The compared portfolios have the following asset allocations.

Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio

Weight (%)	Ticker	Name
10.00	DLS	WisdomTree International SmallCp Div
10.00	EEM	iShares MSCI Emerging Markets
10.00	IJR	iShares Core S&P Small-Cap
10.00	IJS	iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value
10.00	SPY	SPDR S&P 500
10.00	VTV	Vanguard Value
10.00	VEA	Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets
10.00	SCZ	iShares MSCI EAFE Small-Cap
10.00	EFV	iShares MSCI EAFE Value
10.00	VNQ	Vanguard Real Estate

Warren Buffett Portfolio

Weight (%)	Ticker	Name
90.00	VV	Vanguard Large-Cap
10.00	SHY	iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond

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Portfolio Returns as of Apr 30, 2025

Returns are calculated in USD, assuming:

no fees or capital gain taxes.
rebalancing: at every Jan 1^st.
dividend reinvestment, when applicable.

RETURN COMPARISON

Period: 1 January 1976 - 30 April 2025 (~49 years)

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		Return (%) as of Apr 30, 2025
		YTD (4M)	1M	6M	1Y	5Y	10Y	30Y	MAX (~49Y)
	Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Paul Merriman	1.75	0.18	0.66	10.21	11.38	6.65	8.36	11.46
	Warren Buffett Portfolio Warren Buffett	-4.28	-0.52	-1.07	11.94	14.13	11.23	9.79	11.10
Return over 1 year are annualized.

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Capital Growth as of Apr 30, 2025

Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio: an investment of 1$, since May 1995, now would be worth 11.13$, with a total return of 1012.65% (8.36% annualized).

Warren Buffett Portfolio: an investment of 1$, since May 1995, now would be worth 16.48$, with a total return of 1547.55% (9.79% annualized).

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Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio: an investment of 1$, since January 1976, now would be worth 210.74$, with a total return of 20974.05% (11.46% annualized).

Warren Buffett Portfolio: an investment of 1$, since January 1976, now would be worth 180.05$, with a total return of 17904.94% (11.10% annualized).

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Portfolio Metrics as of Apr 30, 2025

The following metrics, updated as of 30 April 2025, provide an overview of performance and risk, with the best value in each row highlighted within the table.

METRIC COMPARISON

Period: 1 May 2024 - 30 April 2025 (1 year)

Period: 1 May 2020 - 30 April 2025 (5 years)

Period: 1 May 2015 - 30 April 2025 (10 years)

Period: 1 May 1995 - 30 April 2025 (30 years)

Period: 1 January 1976 - 30 April 2025 (~49 years)

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	Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy	Warren Buffett Portfolio
Author	Paul Merriman	Warren Buffett
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks	100%	90%
Fixed Income	0%	10%
Commodities	0%	0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%)	10.21	11.94
Infl. Adjusted Return (%)	7.97	9.67
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%)	-4.57	-6.82
Start to Recovery (months)	5*	3*
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)	-4.57	-6.82
Start to Recovery (months)	5*	3*
Longest Negative Period (months)	8*	7*
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%)	10.25	10.26
Sharpe Ratio	0.53	0.70
Sortino Ratio	0.71	0.93
Ulcer Index	2.10	2.69
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation	1.00	1.16
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown	2.23	1.75
Metrics calculated over the period 1 May 2024 - 30 April 2025

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	Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy	Warren Buffett Portfolio
Author	Paul Merriman	Warren Buffett
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks	100%	90%
Fixed Income	0%	10%
Commodities	0%	0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%)	11.38	14.13
Infl. Adjusted Return (%)	6.55	9.18
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%)	-24.70	-23.08
Start to Recovery (months)	27	24
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)	-24.70	-23.08
Start to Recovery (months)	27	24
Longest Negative Period (months)	34	28
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%)	15.72	14.68
Sharpe Ratio	0.56	0.79
Sortino Ratio	0.79	1.06
Ulcer Index	7.98	7.97
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation	0.72	0.96
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown	0.46	0.61
Metrics calculated over the period 1 May 2020 - 30 April 2025

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	Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy	Warren Buffett Portfolio
Author	Paul Merriman	Warren Buffett
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks	100%	90%
Fixed Income	0%	10%
Commodities	0%	0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%)	6.65	11.23
Infl. Adjusted Return (%)	3.47	7.91
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%)	-27.54	-23.08
Start to Recovery (months)	11	24
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)	-24.70	-23.08
Start to Recovery (months)	27	24
Longest Negative Period (months)	44	28
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%)	15.52	13.93
Sharpe Ratio	0.32	0.68
Sortino Ratio	0.42	0.91
Ulcer Index	7.86	6.35
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation	0.43	0.81
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown	0.24	0.49
Metrics calculated over the period 1 May 2015 - 30 April 2025

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	Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy	Warren Buffett Portfolio
Author	Paul Merriman	Warren Buffett
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks	100%	90%
Fixed Income	0%	10%
Commodities	0%	0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%)	8.36	9.79
Infl. Adjusted Return (%)	5.71	7.10
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%)	-57.21	-45.52
Start to Recovery (months)	63	42
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)	-57.21	-39.67
Start to Recovery (months)	63	73
Longest Negative Period (months)	68	132
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%)	15.76	13.70
Sharpe Ratio	0.39	0.55
Sortino Ratio	0.50	0.72
Ulcer Index	12.16	12.59
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation	0.53	0.71
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown	0.15	0.22
Metrics calculated over the period 1 May 1995 - 30 April 2025

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	Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy	Warren Buffett Portfolio
Author	Paul Merriman	Warren Buffett
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks	100%	90%
Fixed Income	0%	10%
Commodities	0%	0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%)	11.46	11.10
Infl. Adjusted Return (%)	7.57	7.23
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%)	-57.21	-45.52
Start to Recovery (months)	63	42
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)	-57.21	-39.67
Start to Recovery (months)	63	73
Longest Negative Period (months)	68	132
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%)	15.32	13.60
Sharpe Ratio	0.47	0.51
Sortino Ratio	0.62	0.68
Ulcer Index	10.16	10.50
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation	0.75	0.82
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown	0.20	0.24
Metrics calculated over the period 1 January 1976 - 30 April 2025

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Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

DRAWDOWN COMPARISON

Period: 1 May 1995 - 30 April 2025 (30 years)

Period: 1 January 1976 - 30 April 2025 (~49 years)

Chart Table

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Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy			Warren Buffett Portfolio
Drawdown (%)	Recovery (#Months)	From To	Drawdown (%)	Recovery (#Months)	From To
-57.21	63	Nov 2007 Jan 2013
			-45.52	42	Nov 2007 Apr 2011
			-39.67	73	Sep 2000 Sep 2006
-27.54	11	Jan 2020 Nov 2020
-24.70	27	Jan 2022 Mar 2024
			-23.08	24	Jan 2022 Dec 2023
-20.46	13	Apr 1998 Apr 1999
-20.10	30	Feb 2001 Jul 2003
			-17.49	6	Feb 2020 Jul 2020
-15.11	22	Feb 2018 Nov 2019
			-15.04	10	May 2011 Feb 2012
			-13.83	5	Jul 1998 Nov 1998
-12.10	14	Jun 2015 Jul 2016
			-12.09	7	Oct 2018 Apr 2019
-8.65	5	Sep 2000 Jan 2001

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Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy			Warren Buffett Portfolio
Drawdown (%)	Recovery (#Months)	From To	Drawdown (%)	Recovery (#Months)	From To
-57.21	63	Nov 2007 Jan 2013
			-45.52	42	Nov 2007 Apr 2011
			-39.67	73	Sep 2000 Sep 2006
-27.54	11	Jan 2020 Nov 2020
			-27.35	21	Sep 1987 May 1989
-25.26	17	Sep 1987 Jan 1989
-24.70	27	Jan 2022 Mar 2024
			-23.08	24	Jan 2022 Dec 2023
-21.87	17	Jan 1990 May 1991
-20.46	13	Apr 1998 Apr 1999
-20.10	30	Feb 2001 Jul 2003
-19.82	18	Jun 1981 Nov 1982
			-17.49	6	Feb 2020 Jul 2020
-15.11	22	Feb 2018 Nov 2019
			-15.04	10	May 2011 Feb 2012

Rolling Returns

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the Simulation Settings.

You can explore the Rolling Returns for a single portfolio, or check the return differential, by switching on "Head To Head" toggle.

Rolling Returns Comparison

Annualized Rolling Returns Chart

Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted

Time Period: 1 January 1976 - 30 April 2025 (~49 years)

Rolling Period:

Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy
Warren Buffett Portfolio

Head To Head (Ptf 1 vs Ptf 2):

US Inflation Adjusted:

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Yearly Returns

For each year, the following table provides the return and intra-year drawdown. The highlighted returns represent the highest values for that specific year.

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	Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy		Warren Buffett Portfolio
Year	Return (%)	Drawdown (%)	Return (%)	Drawdown (%)
2025	1.75	-1.54	-4.28	-6.82
2024	8.12	-4.57	23.12	-3.67
2023	15.12	-11.49	24.86	-7.55
2022	-15.37	-24.70	-18.29	-23.08
2021	19.37	-3.67	24.59	-4.32
2020	6.40	-27.54	19.19	-17.49
2019	23.62	-6.09	28.46	-5.73
2018	-11.86	-15.11	-3.84	-12.09
2017	21.78	-0.19	19.83	0.00
2016	12.36	-6.13	10.69	-4.87
2015	-1.21	-10.45	0.96	-7.73
2014	3.86	-4.78	12.08	-2.97
2013	24.33	-3.16	29.44	-2.62
2012	18.52	-9.57	14.59	-6.10
2011	-6.03	-21.49	1.43	-15.04
2010	17.95	-12.96	14.55	-11.71
2009	32.93	-22.58	24.66	-16.03
2008	-39.47	-43.68	-32.35	-33.45
2007	3.86	-8.69	6.30	-4.37
2006	25.26	-4.59	14.32	-2.48
2005	14.55	-4.36	5.58	-3.97
2004	24.50	-4.95	9.73	-2.96
2003	45.35	-4.40	25.87	-3.66
2002	-8.70	-19.82	-19.13	-24.82
2001	-4.24	-16.27	-10.04	-20.31
2000	-0.62	-8.65	-7.27	-11.55
1999	20.93	-3.33	19.15	-5.59
1998	4.55	-20.46	26.49	-13.83
1997	7.53	-6.22	30.52	-5.15
1996	14.79	-4.92	21.03	-3.99
1995	16.47	-2.82	34.91	-0.25
1994	-2.37	-7.70	1.01	-6.47
1993	30.62	-3.22	9.53	-2.10
1992	7.12	-3.87	7.36	-2.36
1991	32.16	-5.51	28.35	-4.14
1990	-15.66	-21.87	-2.00	-12.77
1989	27.73	-3.75	29.38	-2.30
1988	25.20	-2.71	15.17	-3.40
1987	6.29	-25.26	4.71	-27.35
1986	33.82	-4.97	17.29	-7.59
1985	40.18	-2.65	29.49	-3.46
1984	7.34	-6.12	6.99	-6.07
1983	26.91	-2.38	19.96	-3.02
1982	9.42	-16.41	21.09	-7.70
1981	-0.23	-10.99	-3.26	-10.93
1980	24.58	-12.52	29.60	-8.82
1979	19.34	-9.15	17.05	-6.17
1978	21.17	-9.46	5.62	-8.58
1977	13.48	-1.92	-6.77	-10.10
1976	22.54	-3.46	22.58	-1.97

The first official book of

Mastering ETF Investing

Build wealth
with Lazy Portfolios and Passive Investing

Buy now
English book

Buy now
Italian book

Table of contents

Resources & Extras

Asset Allocations and ETFs

Portfolio Returns as of Apr 30, 2025

Capital Growth as of Apr 30, 2025

Portfolio Metrics as of Apr 30, 2025

Drawdowns

Rolling Returns

Yearly Returns