Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio vs Technology Portfolio Portfolio Comparison

Simulation Settings
Period: January 1976 - June 2025 (~50 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 30 June 2025
Initial Amount: 1$
Rebalancing: at every Jan 1st
Currency: USD
Inflation: US
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Results
30 Years
(1995/07 - 2025/06)
All Data
(1976/01 - 2025/06)
Inflation Adjusted:
Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio
1.00$
Invested Capital
July 1995
11.80$
Final Capital
June 2025
8.57%
Yearly Return
15.78%
Std Deviation
-57.21%
Max Drawdown
63months
Recovery Period
1.00$
Invested Capital
July 1995
5.61$
Final Capital
June 2025
5.91%
Yearly Return
15.78%
Std Deviation
-57.92%
Max Drawdown
71months
Recovery Period
1.00$
Invested Capital
January 1976
229.05$
Final Capital
June 2025
11.60%
Yearly Return
15.30%
Std Deviation
-57.21%
Max Drawdown
63months
Recovery Period
1.00$
Invested Capital
January 1976
39.72$
Final Capital
June 2025
7.72%
Yearly Return
15.30%
Std Deviation
-57.92%
Max Drawdown
71months
Recovery Period
Technology Portfolio
1.00$
Invested Capital
July 1995
49.14$
Final Capital
June 2025
13.86%
Yearly Return
24.00%
Std Deviation
-81.08%
Max Drawdown
175months
Recovery Period
1.00$
Invested Capital
July 1995
23.36$
Final Capital
June 2025
11.07%
Yearly Return
24.00%
Std Deviation
-82.10%
Max Drawdown
206months
Recovery Period
1.00$
Invested Capital
January 1976
862.83$
Final Capital
June 2025
14.63%
Yearly Return
22.50%
Std Deviation
-81.08%
Max Drawdown
175months
Recovery Period
1.00$
Invested Capital
January 1976
149.61$
Final Capital
June 2025
10.65%
Yearly Return
22.50%
Std Deviation
-82.10%
Max Drawdown
206months
Recovery Period

As of June 2025, in the previous 30 Years, the Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio obtained a 8.57% compound annual return, with a 15.78% standard deviation. It suffered a maximum drawdown of -57.21% that required 63 months to be recovered.

As of June 2025, in the previous 30 Years, the Technology Portfolio obtained a 13.86% compound annual return, with a 24.00% standard deviation. It suffered a maximum drawdown of -81.08% that required 175 months to be recovered.

Disclaimer: The simulations on this website are provided in good faith but should NOT be taken as investment advice. We are not liable for any errors or actions based on this information. The authors of the website are not affiliated with the portfolio creators, who are the sole owners of their intellectual property. The translation of asset allocations into ETFs is based on the interpretation of LazyPortfolioETF.com and may not exactly reflect the original intent of the portfolio creators. Content is for informational, educational, illustrative, and entertainment purposes only.
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Asset Allocations and ETFs

The compared portfolios have the following asset allocations.

Weight
(%)
Ticker Name
10.00
DLS
WisdomTree International SmallCp Div
10.00
EEM
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets
10.00
IJR
iShares Core S&P Small-Cap
10.00
IJS
iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value
10.00
SPY
SPDR S&P 500
10.00
VTV
Vanguard Value
10.00
VEA
Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets
10.00
SCZ
iShares MSCI EAFE Small-Cap
10.00
EFV
iShares MSCI EAFE Value
10.00
VNQ
Vanguard Real Estate
Weight
(%)
Ticker Name
100.00
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust
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Portfolio Returns as of Jun 30, 2025

Returns are calculated in USD, assuming:
  • no fees or capital gain taxes.
  • rebalancing: at every Jan 1st.
  • dividend reinvestment, when applicable.
Return Comparison
Capital Growth
30 Years
(1995/07 - 2025/06)
All Data
(1976/01 - 2025/06)
Inflation Adjusted:
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Initial Amount $ Final Amount $ Total Return (%) Annualized (%)
Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy
Paul Merriman
1 $ 11.80 $ 1 079.60% 8.57%
Technology
1 $ 49.14 $ 4 814.41% 13.86%

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Initial Amount $ Final Amount $ Total Return (%) Annualized (%)
Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy
Paul Merriman
1 $ 5.61 $ 460.62% 5.91%
Technology
1 $ 23.36 $ 2 235.65% 11.07%

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Initial Amount $ Final Amount $ Total Return (%) Annualized (%)
Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy
Paul Merriman
1 $ 229.05 $ 22 805.04% 11.60%
Technology
1 $ 862.83 $ 86 182.72% 14.63%

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Initial Amount $ Final Amount $ Total Return (%) Annualized (%)
Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy
Paul Merriman
1 $ 39.72 $ 3 871.52% 7.72%
Technology
1 $ 149.61 $ 14 860.64% 10.65%

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Return (%) as of Jun 30, 2025
YTD
(6M)
1M 6M 1Y 5Y 10Y 30Y MAX
(~50Y)
https://www.lazyportfolioetf.com/wp-content/themes/dynamico-child/img/author/avatar_paul_merriman.webp Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy
Paul Merriman
10.59 4.00 10.59 15.64 11.69 7.75 8.57 11.60
https://www.lazyportfolioetf.com/wp-content/themes/dynamico-child/img/author/avatar_us_author.webp Technology
-- Market Benchmark
8.19 6.39 8.19 15.79 18.07 18.71 13.86 14.63
Returns over 1 year are annualized.
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Portfolio Metrics as of Jun 30, 2025

The following metrics, updated as of 30 June 2025, provide an overview of performance and risk, with the best value in each row highlighted within the table.

METRIC COMPARISON
Period: 1 July 2024 - 30 June 2025 (1 year)
Period: 1 July 2020 - 30 June 2025 (5 years)
Period: 1 July 2015 - 30 June 2025 (10 years)
Period: 1 July 1995 - 30 June 2025 (30 years)
Period: 1 January 1976 - 30 June 2025 (~50 years)
1 Year
5 Years
10 Years
30 Years
All (1976/01 - 2025/06)
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Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Technology
Author Paul Merriman
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks 100% 100%
Fixed Income 0% 0%
Commodities 0% 0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%) 15.64 15.79
Infl. Adjusted (%) 12.89 13.04
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -4.57 -10.08
Start to Recovery (months) 6 5
Longest Drawdown Depth (%) -4.57 -10.08
Start to Recovery (months) 6 5
Longest Negative Period (months) 8 10
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%) 10.55 14.70
Sharpe Ratio 1.04 0.76
Sortino Ratio 1.34 1.06
Ulcer Index 2.09 3.83
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 1.48 1.07
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 3.42 1.57
Metrics calculated over the period 1 July 2024 - 30 June 2025
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Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Technology
Author Paul Merriman
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks 100% 100%
Fixed Income 0% 0%
Commodities 0% 0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%) 11.69 18.07
Infl. Adjusted (%) 6.85 12.96
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -24.70 -32.58
Start to Recovery (months) 27 24
Longest Drawdown Depth (%) -24.70 -32.58
Start to Recovery (months) 27 24
Longest Negative Period (months) 34 28
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%) 15.76 20.50
Sharpe Ratio 0.57 0.75
Sortino Ratio 0.81 1.01
Ulcer Index 7.98 12.52
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 0.74 0.88
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 0.47 0.55
Metrics calculated over the period 1 July 2020 - 30 June 2025
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Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Technology
Author Paul Merriman
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks 100% 100%
Fixed Income 0% 0%
Commodities 0% 0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%) 7.75 18.71
Infl. Adjusted (%) 4.57 15.21
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -27.54 -32.58
Start to Recovery (months) 11 24
Longest Drawdown Depth (%) -24.70 -32.58
Start to Recovery (months) 27 24
Longest Negative Period (months) 44 28
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%) 15.58 18.75
Sharpe Ratio 0.38 0.90
Sortino Ratio 0.50 1.22
Ulcer Index 7.74 9.48
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 0.50 1.00
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 0.28 0.57
Metrics calculated over the period 1 July 2015 - 30 June 2025
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Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Technology
Author Paul Merriman
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks 100% 100%
Fixed Income 0% 0%
Commodities 0% 0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%) 8.57 13.86
Infl. Adjusted (%) 5.91 11.07
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -57.21 -81.08
Start to Recovery (months) 63 175
Longest Drawdown Depth (%) -57.21 -81.08
Start to Recovery (months) 63 175
Longest Negative Period (months) 68 174
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%) 15.78 24.00
Sharpe Ratio 0.40 0.48
Sortino Ratio 0.52 0.66
Ulcer Index 12.16 39.57
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 0.54 0.58
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 0.15 0.17
Metrics calculated over the period 1 July 1995 - 30 June 2025
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Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Technology
Author Paul Merriman
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks 100% 100%
Fixed Income 0% 0%
Commodities 0% 0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%) 11.60 14.63
Infl. Adjusted (%) 7.72 10.65
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -57.21 -81.08
Start to Recovery (months) 63 175
Longest Drawdown Depth (%) -57.21 -81.08
Start to Recovery (months) 63 175
Longest Negative Period (months) 68 174
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%) 15.30 22.50
Sharpe Ratio 0.48 0.46
Sortino Ratio 0.63 0.63
Ulcer Index 10.14 31.52
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 0.76 0.65
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 0.20 0.18
Metrics calculated over the period 1 January 1976 - 30 June 2025
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Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

DRAWDOWN COMPARISON
Period: 1 July 1995 - 30 June 2025 (30 years)
Period: 1 January 1976 - 30 June 2025 (~50 years)
30 Years
(1995/07 - 2025/06)

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Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Technology
Drawdown
(%)
Recovery
(#Months)
From
To
Drawdown
(%)
Recovery
(#Months)
From
To
-81.08 175 Apr 2000
Oct 2014
-57.21 63 Nov 2007
Jan 2013
-32.58 24 Jan 2022
Dec 2023
-27.54 11 Jan 2020
Nov 2020
-24.70 27 Jan 2022
Mar 2024
-20.46 13 Apr 1998
Apr 1999
-20.10 30 Feb 2001
Jul 2003
-17.20 3 Aug 1998
Oct 1998
-16.96 8 Sep 2018
Apr 2019
-15.11 22 Feb 2018
Nov 2019
-13.51 4 Feb 1997
May 1997
-12.90 3 Feb 2020
Apr 2020
-12.10 14 Jun 2015
Jul 2016
-10.50 7 Aug 1997
Feb 1998
-10.08 5 Feb 2025
Jun 2025

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Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Technology
Drawdown
(%)
Recovery
(#Months)
From
To
Drawdown
(%)
Recovery
(#Months)
From
To
-81.08 175 Apr 2000
Oct 2014
-57.21 63 Nov 2007
Jan 2013
-34.57 21 Sep 1987
May 1989
-32.58 24 Jan 2022
Dec 2023
-27.93 29 Jul 1983
Nov 1985
-27.64 8 Jul 1990
Feb 1991
-27.54 11 Jan 2020
Nov 2020
-25.26 17 Sep 1987
Jan 1989
-25.11 18 Jun 1981
Nov 1982
-24.70 27 Jan 2022
Mar 2024
-21.87 17 Jan 1990
May 1991
-20.46 13 Apr 1998
Apr 1999
-20.10 30 Feb 2001
Jul 2003
-19.82 18 Jun 1981
Nov 1982
-19.01 6 Feb 1980
Jul 1980

Rolling Returns

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the Simulation Settings.

You can explore the Rolling Returns for a single portfolio, or check the return differential, by switching on "Head To Head" toggle.

Rolling Returns Comparison
Annualized Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 January 1976 - 30 June 2025 (~50 years)


Head To Head (Ptf 1 vs Ptf 2):
US Inflation Adjusted:

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Yearly Returns

For each year, the following table provides the return and intra-year drawdown. The highlighted returns represent the highest values for that specific year.

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Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Technology
Year Return
(%)
Drawdown
(%)
Return
(%)
Drawdown
(%)
2025
10.59 -1.54 8.19 -10.08
2024
8.12 -4.57 25.58 -4.37
2023
15.12 -11.49 54.86 -8.42
2022
-15.37 -24.70 -32.58 -32.58
2021
19.37 -3.67 27.42 -5.68
2020
6.40 -27.54 48.40 -12.90
2019
23.62 -6.09 38.96 -8.23
2018
-11.86 -15.11 -0.12 -16.96
2017
21.78 -0.19 32.66 -2.32
2016
12.36 -6.13 7.10 -8.37
2015
-1.21 -10.45 9.45 -8.88
2014
3.86 -4.78 19.18 -3.04
2013
24.33 -3.16 36.63 -2.39
2012
18.52 -9.57 18.12 -8.13
2011
-6.03 -21.49 3.47 -10.79
2010
17.95 -12.96 20.14 -12.93
2009
32.93 -22.58 54.68 -7.43
2008
-39.47 -43.68 -41.73 -43.03
2007
3.86 -8.69 19.02 -6.83
2006
25.26 -4.59 7.14 -11.54
2005
14.55 -4.36 1.57 -12.37
2004
24.50 -4.95 10.54 -9.86
2003
45.35 -4.40 49.67 -2.90
2002
-8.70 -19.82 -37.37 -46.75
2001
-4.24 -16.27 -33.34 -54.93
2000
-0.62 -8.65 -36.11 -46.69
1999
20.93 -3.33 101.95 -9.49
1998
4.55 -20.46 85.30 -17.20
1997
7.53 -6.22 20.63 -13.51
1996
14.79 -4.92 42.54 -8.14
1995
16.47 -2.82 42.54 -3.77
1994
-2.37 -7.70 1.50 -12.97
1993
30.62 -3.22 10.58 -8.26
1992
7.12 -3.87 8.86 -13.48
1991
32.16 -5.51 64.99 -8.89
1990
-15.66 -21.87 -10.41 -27.64
1989
27.73 -3.75 26.17 -4.64
1988
25.20 -2.71 13.54 -10.50
1987
6.29 -25.26 10.50 -34.57
1986
33.82 -4.97 6.89 -15.73
1985
40.18 -2.65 35.61 -6.97
1984
7.34 -6.12 -11.31 -17.55
1983
26.91 -2.38 19.87 -13.85
1982
9.42 -16.41 18.67 -14.55
1981
-0.23 -10.99 -3.21 -19.44
1980
24.58 -12.52 33.88 -19.01
1979
19.34 -9.15 28.11 -9.91
1978
21.17 -9.46 12.31 -17.69
1977
13.48 -1.92 7.33 -3.83
1976
22.54 -3.46 26.10 -2.85
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