Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio vs Bill Bernstein Sheltered Sam 90/10 Portfolio Portfolio Comparison

Simulation Settings

Period: January 1985 - June 2025 (~41 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 30 June 2025

Initial Amount: 1$

Rebalancing: at every Jan 1^st

Currency: USD

Inflation: US

(Change Settings)

Results

30 Years
(1995/07 - 2025/06)

All Data
(1985/01 - 2025/06)

Inflation Adjusted:

Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio

1.00$
Invested Capital
July 1995
11.80$
Final Capital
June 2025
8.57%
Yearly Return
15.78%
Std Deviation
-57.21%
Max Drawdown
63months
Recovery Period

1.00$
Invested Capital
July 1995
5.61$
Final Capital
June 2025
5.91%
Yearly Return
15.78%
Std Deviation
-57.92%
Max Drawdown
71months
Recovery Period

1.00$
Invested Capital
January 1985
61.48$
Final Capital
June 2025
10.70%
Yearly Return
15.51%
Std Deviation
-57.21%
Max Drawdown
63months
Recovery Period

1.00$
Invested Capital
January 1985
20.23$
Final Capital
June 2025
7.71%
Yearly Return
15.51%
Std Deviation
-57.92%
Max Drawdown
71months
Recovery Period

Bill Bernstein Sheltered Sam 90/10 Portfolio

1.00$
Invested Capital
July 1995
12.83$
Final Capital
June 2025
8.88%
Yearly Return
13.80%
Std Deviation
-50.12%
Max Drawdown
42months
Recovery Period

1.00$
Invested Capital
July 1995
6.10$
Final Capital
June 2025
6.21%
Yearly Return
13.80%
Std Deviation
-50.94%
Max Drawdown
65months
Recovery Period

1.00$
Invested Capital
January 1985
58.56$
Final Capital
June 2025
10.57%
Yearly Return
13.48%
Std Deviation
-50.12%
Max Drawdown
42months
Recovery Period

1.00$
Invested Capital
January 1985
19.27$
Final Capital
June 2025
7.58%
Yearly Return
13.48%
Std Deviation
-50.94%
Max Drawdown
65months
Recovery Period

As of June 2025, in the previous 30 Years, the Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio obtained a 8.57% compound annual return, with a 15.78% standard deviation. It suffered a maximum drawdown of -57.21% that required 63 months to be recovered.

As of June 2025, in the previous 30 Years, the Bill Bernstein Sheltered Sam 90/10 Portfolio obtained a 8.88% compound annual return, with a 13.80% standard deviation. It suffered a maximum drawdown of -50.12% that required 42 months to be recovered.

Disclaimer: The simulations on this website are provided in good faith but should NOT be taken as investment advice. We are not liable for any errors or actions based on this information. The authors of the website are not affiliated with the portfolio creators, who are the sole owners of their intellectual property. The translation of asset allocations into ETFs is based on the interpretation of LazyPortfolioETF.com and may not exactly reflect the original intent of the portfolio creators. Content is for informational, educational, illustrative, and entertainment purposes only.

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Asset Allocations and ETFs

The compared portfolios have the following asset allocations.

Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio

Weight (%)	Ticker	Name
10.00	DLS	WisdomTree International SmallCp Div
10.00	EEM	iShares MSCI Emerging Markets
10.00	IJR	iShares Core S&P Small-Cap
10.00	IJS	iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value
10.00	SPY	SPDR S&P 500
10.00	VTV	Vanguard Value
10.00	VEA	Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets
10.00	SCZ	iShares MSCI EAFE Small-Cap
10.00	EFV	iShares MSCI EAFE Value
10.00	VNQ	Vanguard Real Estate

Bill Bernstein Sheltered Sam 90/10 Portfolio

Weight (%)	Ticker	Name
22.50	VTV	Vanguard Value
18.00	VV	Vanguard Large-Cap
13.50	IJS	iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value
9.00	VNQ	Vanguard Real Estate
6.30	EFV	iShares MSCI EAFE Value
4.50	EEM	iShares MSCI Emerging Markets
4.50	IJR	iShares Core S&P Small-Cap
4.50	VGK	Vanguard FTSE Europe
4.50	VPL	Vanguard FTSE Pacific
6.00	SHY	iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond
4.00	TIP	iShares TIPS Bond
2.70	GLTR	Aberdeen Standard Physical Precious Metals Basket Shares

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Portfolio Returns as of Jun 30, 2025

Returns are calculated in USD, assuming:

no fees or capital gain taxes.
rebalancing: at every Jan 1^st.
dividend reinvestment, when applicable.

Return Comparison

Capital Growth

30 Years
(1995/07 - 2025/06)

All Data
(1985/01 - 2025/06)

Inflation Adjusted:

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	Initial Amount $	Final Amount $	Total Return (%)	Annualized (%)
Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Paul Merriman	1 $	11.80 $	1 079.60%	8.57%
Sheltered Sam 90/10 Bill Bernstein	1 $	12.83 $	1 182.54%	8.88%
	Jul 1995	Jun 2025

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	Initial Amount $	Final Amount $	Total Return (%)	Annualized (%)
Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Paul Merriman	1 $	5.61 $	460.62%	5.91%
Sheltered Sam 90/10 Bill Bernstein	1 $	6.10 $	509.55%	6.21%
	Jul 1995	Jun 2025

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	Initial Amount $	Final Amount $	Total Return (%)	Annualized (%)
Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Paul Merriman	1 $	61.48 $	6 048.19%	10.70%
Sheltered Sam 90/10 Bill Bernstein	1 $	58.56 $	5 755.94%	10.57%
	Jan 1985	Jun 2025

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	Initial Amount $	Final Amount $	Total Return (%)	Annualized (%)
Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Paul Merriman	1 $	20.23 $	1 922.79%	7.71%
Sheltered Sam 90/10 Bill Bernstein	1 $	19.27 $	1 826.64%	7.58%
	Jan 1985	Jun 2025

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		Return (%) as of Jun 30, 2025
		YTD (6M)	1M	6M	1Y	5Y	10Y	30Y	MAX (~41Y)
	Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Paul Merriman	10.59	4.00	10.59	15.64	11.69	7.75	8.57	10.70
	Sheltered Sam 90/10 Bill Bernstein	6.48	3.50	6.48	12.98	11.92	8.55	8.88	10.57
Returns over 1 year are annualized.

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Portfolio Metrics as of Jun 30, 2025

The following metrics, updated as of 30 June 2025, provide an overview of performance and risk, with the best value in each row highlighted within the table.

METRIC COMPARISON

Period: 1 July 2024 - 30 June 2025 (1 year)

Period: 1 July 2020 - 30 June 2025 (5 years)

Period: 1 July 2015 - 30 June 2025 (10 years)

Period: 1 July 1995 - 30 June 2025 (30 years)

Period: 1 January 1985 - 30 June 2025 (~41 years)

1 Year

5 Years

10 Years

30 Years

All (1985/01 - 2025/06)

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	Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy	Sheltered Sam 90/10
Author	Paul Merriman	Bill Bernstein
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks	100%	87.3%
Fixed Income	0%	10%
Commodities	0%	2.7%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%)	15.64	12.98
Infl. Adjusted (%)	12.89	10.30
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%)	-4.57	-5.28
Start to Recovery (months)	6	7
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)	-4.57	-5.28
Start to Recovery (months)	6	7
Longest Negative Period (months)	8	8
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%)	10.55	10.12
Sharpe Ratio	1.04	0.82
Sortino Ratio	1.34	1.07
Ulcer Index	2.09	2.47
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation	1.48	1.28
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown	3.42	2.46
Metrics calculated over the period 1 July 2024 - 30 June 2025

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	Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy	Sheltered Sam 90/10
Author	Paul Merriman	Bill Bernstein
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks	100%	87.3%
Fixed Income	0%	10%
Commodities	0%	2.7%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%)	11.69	11.92
Infl. Adjusted (%)	6.85	7.08
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%)	-24.70	-20.42
Start to Recovery (months)	27	24
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)	-24.70	-20.42
Start to Recovery (months)	27	24
Longest Negative Period (months)	34	31
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%)	15.76	14.07
Sharpe Ratio	0.57	0.66
Sortino Ratio	0.81	0.92
Ulcer Index	7.98	6.21
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation	0.74	0.85
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown	0.47	0.58
Metrics calculated over the period 1 July 2020 - 30 June 2025

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	Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy	Sheltered Sam 90/10
Author	Paul Merriman	Bill Bernstein
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks	100%	87.3%
Fixed Income	0%	10%
Commodities	0%	2.7%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%)	7.75	8.55
Infl. Adjusted (%)	4.57	5.35
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%)	-27.54	-22.65
Start to Recovery (months)	11	11
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)	-24.70	-20.42
Start to Recovery (months)	27	24
Longest Negative Period (months)	44	37
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%)	15.58	13.70
Sharpe Ratio	0.38	0.49
Sortino Ratio	0.50	0.65
Ulcer Index	7.74	5.90
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation	0.50	0.62
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown	0.28	0.38
Metrics calculated over the period 1 July 2015 - 30 June 2025

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	Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy	Sheltered Sam 90/10
Author	Paul Merriman	Bill Bernstein
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks	100%	87.3%
Fixed Income	0%	10%
Commodities	0%	2.7%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%)	8.57	8.88
Infl. Adjusted (%)	5.91	6.21
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%)	-57.21	-50.12
Start to Recovery (months)	63	42
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)	-57.21	-50.12
Start to Recovery (months)	63	42
Longest Negative Period (months)	68	102
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%)	15.78	13.80
Sharpe Ratio	0.40	0.48
Sortino Ratio	0.52	0.62
Ulcer Index	12.16	9.89
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation	0.54	0.64
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown	0.15	0.18
Metrics calculated over the period 1 July 1995 - 30 June 2025

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	Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy	Sheltered Sam 90/10
Author	Paul Merriman	Bill Bernstein
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks	100%	87.3%
Fixed Income	0%	10%
Commodities	0%	2.7%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%)	10.70	10.57
Infl. Adjusted (%)	7.71	7.58
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%)	-57.21	-50.12
Start to Recovery (months)	63	42
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)	-57.21	-50.12
Start to Recovery (months)	63	42
Longest Negative Period (months)	68	102
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%)	15.51	13.48
Sharpe Ratio	0.49	0.55
Sortino Ratio	0.63	0.71
Ulcer Index	10.97	8.96
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation	0.69	0.78
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown	0.19	0.21
Metrics calculated over the period 1 January 1985 - 30 June 2025

Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

DRAWDOWN COMPARISON

Period: 1 July 1995 - 30 June 2025 (30 years)

Period: 1 January 1985 - 30 June 2025 (~41 years)

30 Years
(1995/07 - 2025/06)

Chart Table

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Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy			Sheltered Sam 90/10
Drawdown (%)	Recovery (#Months)	From To	Drawdown (%)	Recovery (#Months)	From To
-57.21	63	Nov 2007 Jan 2013
			-50.12	42	Nov 2007 Apr 2011
-27.54	11	Jan 2020 Nov 2020
-24.70	27	Jan 2022 Mar 2024
			-22.65	11	Jan 2020 Nov 2020
			-21.79	33	Feb 2001 Oct 2003
-20.46	13	Apr 1998 Apr 1999
			-20.42	24	Jan 2022 Dec 2023
-20.10	30	Feb 2001 Jul 2003
			-17.83	11	May 2011 Mar 2012
			-17.68	12	May 1998 Apr 1999
-15.11	22	Feb 2018 Nov 2019
-12.10	14	Jun 2015 Jul 2016
			-11.79	8	Sep 2018 Apr 2019
			-9.22	13	Jun 2015 Jun 2016

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Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy			Sheltered Sam 90/10
Drawdown (%)	Recovery (#Months)	From To	Drawdown (%)	Recovery (#Months)	From To
-57.21	63	Nov 2007 Jan 2013
			-50.12	42	Nov 2007 Apr 2011
-27.54	11	Jan 2020 Nov 2020
-25.26	17	Sep 1987 Jan 1989
-24.70	27	Jan 2022 Mar 2024
			-23.28	17	Sep 1987 Jan 1989
			-22.65	11	Jan 2020 Nov 2020
-21.87	17	Jan 1990 May 1991
			-21.79	33	Feb 2001 Oct 2003
-20.46	13	Apr 1998 Apr 1999
			-20.42	24	Jan 2022 Dec 2023
-20.10	30	Feb 2001 Jul 2003
			-17.83	11	May 2011 Mar 2012
			-17.68	12	May 1998 Apr 1999
			-15.69	14	Jan 1990 Feb 1991

Rolling Returns

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the Simulation Settings.

You can explore the Rolling Returns for a single portfolio, or check the return differential, by switching on "Head To Head" toggle.

Rolling Returns Comparison

Annualized Rolling Returns Chart

Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted

Time Period: 1 January 1985 - 30 June 2025 (~41 years)

Rolling Period:

Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy
Sheltered Sam 90/10

Head To Head (Ptf 1 vs Ptf 2):

US Inflation Adjusted:

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Yearly Returns

For each year, the following table provides the return and intra-year drawdown. The highlighted returns represent the highest values for that specific year.

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	Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy		Sheltered Sam 90/10
Year	Return (%)	Drawdown (%)	Return (%)	Drawdown (%)
2025	10.59	-1.54	6.48	-3.63
2024	8.12	-4.57	11.59	-4.65
2023	15.12	-11.49	14.38	-9.69
2022	-15.37	-24.70	-12.09	-20.42
2021	19.37	-3.67	21.12	-3.42
2020	6.40	-27.54	7.74	-22.65
2019	23.62	-6.09	23.13	-5.49
2018	-11.86	-15.11	-7.66	-11.79
2017	21.78	-0.19	16.40	-0.25
2016	12.36	-6.13	13.70	-4.40
2015	-1.21	-10.45	-2.36	-9.00
2014	3.86	-4.78	8.20	-3.50
2013	24.33	-3.16	22.71	-2.88
2012	18.52	-9.57	15.32	-7.26
2011	-6.03	-21.49	-1.13	-17.83
2010	17.95	-12.96	16.61	-11.68
2009	32.93	-22.58	25.94	-20.63
2008	-39.47	-43.68	-32.87	-36.25
2007	3.86	-8.69	3.28	-6.37
2006	25.26	-4.59	20.79	-3.44
2005	14.55	-4.36	10.17	-3.80
2004	24.50	-4.95	17.49	-4.53
2003	45.35	-4.40	33.96	-4.59
2002	-8.70	-19.82	-10.94	-19.49
2001	-4.24	-16.27	-3.78	-15.07
2000	-0.62	-8.65	3.21	-6.55
1999	20.93	-3.33	15.58	-3.98
1998	4.55	-20.46	8.73	-17.68
1997	7.53	-6.22	19.08	-4.29
1996	14.79	-4.92	17.88	-4.19
1995	16.47	-2.82	24.96	-2.05
1994	-2.37	-7.70	-1.28	-6.92
1993	30.62	-3.22	24.08	-2.86
1992	7.12	-3.87	9.51	-2.08
1991	32.16	-5.51	30.09	-4.21
1990	-15.66	-21.87	-9.73	-15.69
1989	27.73	-3.75	25.02	-3.04
1988	25.20	-2.71	19.40	-2.48
1987	6.29	-25.26	3.64	-23.28
1986	33.82	-4.97	24.84	-4.63
1985	40.18	-2.65	33.45	-2.68

Table of contents

Resources & Extras

Asset Allocations and ETFs

Portfolio Returns as of Jun 30, 2025

Portfolio Metrics as of Jun 30, 2025

Drawdowns

Rolling Returns

Yearly Returns