Gold Portfolio vs Craig Israelsen 7Twelve Portfolio Portfolio Comparison

Simulation Settings
Period: January 1976 - April 2025 (~49 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 30 April 2025
Rebalancing: at every Jan 1st
Currency: USD
Inflation: US
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Results
30 Years
All (since January 1976)
Inflation Adjusted:
Gold Portfolio
1.00$
Initial Capital
May 1995
7.75$
Final Capital
April 2025
7.06%
Yearly Return
15.69%
Std Deviation
-42.91%
Max Drawdown
107months
Recovery Period
1.00$
Initial Capital
May 1995
3.68$
Final Capital
April 2025
4.44%
Yearly Return
15.69%
Std Deviation
-45.71%
Max Drawdown
158months
Recovery Period
1.00$
Initial Capital
January 1976
21.54$
Final Capital
April 2025
6.42%
Yearly Return
18.33%
Std Deviation
-61.78%
Max Drawdown
319months
Recovery Period
1.00$
Initial Capital
January 1976
3.75$
Final Capital
April 2025
2.71%
Yearly Return
18.33%
Std Deviation
-82.52%
Max Drawdown
542months
Recovery Period
Craig Israelsen 7Twelve Portfolio
1.00$
Initial Capital
May 1995
7.21$
Final Capital
April 2025
6.81%
Yearly Return
9.77%
Std Deviation
-37.96%
Max Drawdown
33months
Recovery Period
1.00$
Initial Capital
May 1995
3.42$
Final Capital
April 2025
4.19%
Yearly Return
9.77%
Std Deviation
-37.23%
Max Drawdown
35months
Recovery Period
1.00$
Initial Capital
January 1976
74.89$
Final Capital
April 2025
9.14%
Yearly Return
9.42%
Std Deviation
-37.96%
Max Drawdown
33months
Recovery Period
1.00$
Initial Capital
January 1976
13.02$
Final Capital
April 2025
5.34%
Yearly Return
9.42%
Std Deviation
-37.23%
Max Drawdown
35months
Recovery Period

As of April 2025, in the previous 30 Years, the Gold Portfolio obtained a 7.06% compound annual return, with a 15.69% standard deviation. It suffered a maximum drawdown of -42.91% that required 107 months to be recovered.

As of April 2025, in the previous 30 Years, the Craig Israelsen 7Twelve Portfolio obtained a 6.81% compound annual return, with a 9.77% standard deviation. It suffered a maximum drawdown of -37.96% that required 33 months to be recovered.

Disclaimer: The simulations on this website are provided in good faith but should NOT be taken as investment advice. We are not liable for any errors or actions based on this information. The authors of the website are not affiliated with the portfolio creators, who are the sole owners of their intellectual property. The translation of asset allocations into ETFs is based on the interpretation of LazyPortfolioETF.com and may not exactly reflect the original intent of the portfolio creators. Content is for informational, educational, illustrative, and entertainment purposes only.
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Asset Allocations and ETFs

The compared portfolios have the following asset allocations.

Gold Portfolio
Weight
(%)		 Ticker Name
100.00
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust
Craig Israelsen 7Twelve Portfolio
Weight
(%)		 Ticker Name
8.34
VNQ
Vanguard Real Estate
8.34
VV
Vanguard Large-Cap
8.33
EEM
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets
8.33
EFA
iShares MSCI EAFE
8.33
IJR
iShares Core S&P Small-Cap
8.33
VO
Vanguard Mid-Cap
25.00
IEI
iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond
8.34
BIL
SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill
16.66
GSG
iShares S&P GSCI Commodity Indexed Trust
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Portfolio Returns as of Apr 30, 2025

Returns are calculated in USD, assuming:
  • no fees or capital gain taxes.
  • rebalancing: at every Jan 1st.
  • dividend reinvestment, when applicable.
RETURN COMPARISON
Period: 1 January 1976 - 30 April 2025 (~49 years)
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Return (%) as of Apr 30, 2025
YTD
(4M) 		1M 6M 1Y 5Y 10Y 30Y MAX
(~49Y)
//www.lazyportfolioetf.com/wp-content/themes/dynamico-child/img/author/avatar_gold.webp Gold
-- Market Benchmark 		25.46 5.42 19.83 43.38 13.85 10.35 7.06 6.42
//www.lazyportfolioetf.com/wp-content/themes/dynamico-child/img/author/avatar_craig_israelsen.webp 7Twelve Portfolio
Craig Israelsen 		0.08 -1.47 0.03 6.16 8.85 4.50 6.81 9.14
Return over 1 year are annualized.
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Capital Growth as of Apr 30, 2025

Gold Portfolio: an investment of 1$, since May 1995, now would be worth 7.75$, with a total return of 675.13% (7.06% annualized).

Craig Israelsen 7Twelve Portfolio: an investment of 1$, since May 1995, now would be worth 7.21$, with a total return of 621.11% (6.81% annualized).


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Gold Portfolio: an investment of 1$, since January 1976, now would be worth 21.54$, with a total return of 2054.05% (6.42% annualized).

Craig Israelsen 7Twelve Portfolio: an investment of 1$, since January 1976, now would be worth 74.89$, with a total return of 7388.53% (9.14% annualized).


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Portfolio Metrics as of Apr 30, 2025

The following metrics, updated as of 30 April 2025, provide an overview of performance and risk, with the best value in each row highlighted within the table.

METRIC COMPARISON
Period: 1 May 2024 - 30 April 2025 (1 year)
Period: 1 May 2020 - 30 April 2025 (5 years)
Period: 1 May 2015 - 30 April 2025 (10 years)
Period: 1 May 1995 - 30 April 2025 (30 years)
Period: 1 January 1976 - 30 April 2025 (~49 years)
Swipe left to see all data
Gold 7Twelve Portfolio
Author Craig Israelsen
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks 0% 50%
Fixed Income 0% 33.34%
Commodities 100% 16.66%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%) 43.38 6.16
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) 40.46 4.00
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -4.49 -2.38
Start to Recovery (months) 3 5*
Longest Drawdown Depth (%) -4.49 -2.38
Start to Recovery (months) 3 5*
Longest Negative Period (months) 3 8*
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%) 12.01 5.67
Sharpe Ratio 3.21 0.24
Sortino Ratio 4.47 0.31
Ulcer Index 1.52 1.05
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 3.61 1.09
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 9.66 2.59
Metrics calculated over the period 1 May 2024 - 30 April 2025
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Gold 7Twelve Portfolio
Author Craig Israelsen
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks 0% 50%
Fixed Income 0% 33.34%
Commodities 100% 16.66%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%) 13.85 8.85
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) 8.91 4.13
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -18.08 -13.28
Start to Recovery (months) 40 23
Longest Drawdown Depth (%) -18.08 -13.28
Start to Recovery (months) 40 23
Longest Negative Period (months) 39 30
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%) 14.73 9.67
Sharpe Ratio 0.77 0.65
Sortino Ratio 1.14 0.88
Ulcer Index 6.97 4.03
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 0.94 0.91
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 0.77 0.67
Metrics calculated over the period 1 May 2020 - 30 April 2025
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Gold 7Twelve Portfolio
Author Craig Israelsen
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks 0% 50%
Fixed Income 0% 33.34%
Commodities 100% 16.66%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%) 10.35 4.50
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) 7.06 1.38
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -18.08 -17.90
Start to Recovery (months) 40 11
Longest Drawdown Depth (%) -18.08 -13.28
Start to Recovery (months) 40 23
Longest Negative Period (months) 41 59
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%) 14.10 9.62
Sharpe Ratio 0.61 0.29
Sortino Ratio 0.91 0.37
Ulcer Index 6.65 4.93
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 0.73 0.47
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 0.57 0.25
Metrics calculated over the period 1 May 2015 - 30 April 2025
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Gold 7Twelve Portfolio
Author Craig Israelsen
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks 0% 50%
Fixed Income 0% 33.34%
Commodities 100% 16.66%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%) 7.06 6.81
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) 4.44 4.19
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -42.91 -37.96
Start to Recovery (months) 107 33
Longest Drawdown Depth (%) -42.91 -14.54
Start to Recovery (months) 107 37
Longest Negative Period (months) 145 73
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%) 15.69 9.77
Sharpe Ratio 0.31 0.46
Sortino Ratio 0.45 0.60
Ulcer Index 20.47 7.03
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 0.45 0.70
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 0.16 0.18
Metrics calculated over the period 1 May 1995 - 30 April 2025
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Gold 7Twelve Portfolio
Author Craig Israelsen
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks 0% 50%
Fixed Income 0% 33.34%
Commodities 100% 16.66%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%) 6.42 9.14
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) 2.71 5.34
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -61.78 -37.96
Start to Recovery (months) 319 33
Longest Drawdown Depth (%) -61.78 -14.54
Start to Recovery (months) 319 37
Longest Negative Period (months) 329 73
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%) 18.33 9.42
Sharpe Ratio 0.12 0.52
Sortino Ratio 0.18 0.68
Ulcer Index 35.07 5.75
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 0.35 0.97
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 0.10 0.24
Metrics calculated over the period 1 January 1976 - 30 April 2025
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Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

DRAWDOWN COMPARISON
Period: 1 May 1995 - 30 April 2025 (30 years)
Period: 1 January 1976 - 30 April 2025 (~49 years)

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Gold 7Twelve Portfolio
Drawdown
(%) 		Recovery
(#Months)		 From
To		 Drawdown
(%) 		Recovery
(#Months)		 From
To
-42.91 107 Sep 2011
Jul 2020
-37.96 33 Jun 2008
Feb 2011
-37.17 95 Feb 1996
Dec 2003
-25.83 15 Mar 2008
May 2009
-18.08 40 Aug 2020
Nov 2023
-17.90 11 Jan 2020
Nov 2020
-14.54 37 Jul 2014
Jul 2017
-13.54 13 Apr 1998
Apr 1999
-13.50 20 May 2011
Dec 2012
-13.28 23 Apr 2022
Feb 2024
-10.05 27 Feb 2001
Apr 2003
-9.83 7 Oct 2018
Apr 2019
-8.64 10 Dec 2004
Sep 2005
-8.63 10 May 2006
Feb 2007
-8.37 6 Dec 2009
May 2010

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Gold 7Twelve Portfolio
Drawdown
(%) 		Recovery
(#Months)		 From
To		 Drawdown
(%) 		Recovery
(#Months)		 From
To
-61.78 319 Oct 1980
Apr 2007
-42.91 107 Sep 2011
Jul 2020
-37.96 33 Jun 2008
Feb 2011
-25.85 14 Jan 1976
Feb 1977
-25.83 15 Mar 2008
May 2009
-24.27 5 Feb 1980
Jun 1980
-20.28 4 Nov 1978
Feb 1979
-18.08 40 Aug 2020
Nov 2023
-17.90 11 Jan 2020
Nov 2020
-14.54 37 Jul 2014
Jul 2017
-13.54 13 Apr 1998
Apr 1999
-13.50 20 May 2011
Dec 2012
-13.43 14 Sep 1987
Oct 1988
-13.28 23 Apr 2022
Feb 2024
-10.52 5 Feb 1980
Jun 1980

Rolling Returns

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the Simulation Settings.

You can explore the Rolling Returns for a single portfolio, or check the return differential, by switching on "Head To Head" toggle.

Rolling Returns Comparison
Annualized Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 January 1976 - 30 April 2025 (~49 years)


Head To Head (Ptf 1 vs Ptf 2):
US Inflation Adjusted:

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Yearly Returns

For each year, the following table provides the return and intra-year drawdown. The highlighted returns represent the highest values for that specific year.

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Gold 7Twelve Portfolio
Year Return
(%)		 Drawdown
(%)		 Return
(%)		 Drawdown
(%)
2025
 25.46 0.00 0.08 -2.26
2024
 26.66 -4.49 7.60 -2.38
2023
 12.69 -7.22 8.76 -6.62
2022
 -0.77 -15.91 -7.91 -13.28
2021
 -4.15 -10.32 16.41 -3.52
2020
 24.81 -10.12 3.64 -17.90
2019
 17.86 -4.10 17.04 -3.93
2018
 -1.94 -11.66 -6.60 -9.83
2017
 12.81 -4.09 11.15 -0.23
2016
 8.03 -15.02 7.88 -3.46
2015
 -10.67 -17.81 -6.71 -8.96
2014
 -2.19 -12.44 -0.27 -5.11
2013
 -28.33 -28.33 9.98 -2.34
2012
 6.60 -10.45 9.05 -5.96
2011
 9.57 -14.48 -0.33 -13.50
2010
 29.27 -5.09 12.87 -7.69
2009
 24.03 -7.20 19.77 -13.75
2008
 4.92 -25.83 -24.01 -29.50
2007
 30.45 -4.20 11.31 -2.37
2006
 22.55 -8.63 12.08 -2.41
2005
 17.76 -4.91 11.36 -3.44
2004
 4.65 -8.31 14.33 -5.06
2003
 19.89 -8.88 25.20 -1.95
2002
 25.57 -6.72 4.93 -5.27
2001
 0.75 -6.10 -4.66 -10.05
2000
 -5.44 -9.93 11.53 -2.79
1999
 0.85 -11.47 19.24 -3.02
1998
 -0.83 -12.01 -1.40 -13.54
1997
 -21.41 -21.41 7.34 -3.49
1996
 -4.59 -8.95 16.09 -3.26
1995
 0.98 -2.46 18.64 -1.07
1994
 -2.17 -3.91 -1.53 -6.66
1993
 17.68 -11.51 17.28 -3.19
1992
 -5.73 -6.97 5.45 -2.13
1991
 -8.56 -10.05 26.17 -3.31
1990
 -3.11 -15.14 1.68 -5.15
1989
 -2.84 -12.30 27.09 -1.51
1988
 -15.26 -18.05 17.78 -2.03
1987
 24.53 -1.97 3.08 -13.43
1986
 18.96 -8.14 16.22 -3.66
1985
 6.00 -6.67 24.57 -0.68
1984
 -19.38 -21.80 8.53 -2.58
1983
 -16.31 -23.52 17.12 -1.50
1982
 14.94 -20.13 15.88 -3.72
1981
 -32.60 -32.60 -1.36 -7.83
1980
 15.19 -24.27 16.18 -10.52
1979
 126.55 -4.46 20.37 -6.26
1978
 37.01 -20.28 13.62 -5.84
1977
 22.64 -4.00 7.11 -1.81
1976
 -4.10 -25.85 15.46 -2.12
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