Craig Israelsen 7Twelve Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns

Data Source: from January 1976 to May 2023 (~47 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 31 May 2023
Live Update: Jun 02 2023
PORTFOLIO • LIVE PERFORMANCE (USD currency)
1.26%
1 Day
Jun 02 2023
2.15%
Current Month
June 2023

The Craig Israelsen 7Twelve Portfolio is a High Risk portfolio and can be implemented with 9 ETFs.

It's exposed for 50% on the Stock Market and for 16.66% on Commodities.

In the last 30 Years, the Craig Israelsen 7Twelve Portfolio obtained a 6.60% compound annual return, with a 9.74% standard deviation.

Asset Allocation and ETFs

The Craig Israelsen 7Twelve Portfolio has the following asset allocation:

50% Stocks
33.34% Fixed Income
16.66% Commodities

The Craig Israelsen 7Twelve Portfolio can be implemented with the following ETFs:

Weight (%) Ticker ETF Name Investment Themes
8.34
VNQ
Vanguard Real Estate Real Estate, U.S.
8.34
VV
Vanguard Large-Cap Equity, U.S., Large Cap
8.33
EFA
iShares MSCI EAFE Equity, EAFE, Large Cap
8.33
EEM
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Equity, Emerging Markets, Large Cap
8.33
IJR
iShares Core S&P Small-Cap Equity, U.S., Small Cap
8.33
VO
Vanguard Mid-Cap Equity, U.S., Mid Cap
25.00
IEI
iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond Bond, U.S., Intermediate-Term
8.34
BIL
SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill Bond, U.S., Ultra Short-Term
16.66
GSG
iShares S&P GSCI Commodity Indexed Trust Commodity, Broad Diversified

Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

Portfolio and ETF Returns as of May 31, 2023

The Craig Israelsen 7Twelve Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.

Portfolio returns are calculated in USD, assuming: June 2023 return is calculated on the hypothesis of a newly built portfolio, with the starting asset allocation.
CRAIG ISRAELSEN 7TWELVE PORTFOLIO
Consolidated returns as of 31 May 2023
Live Update: Jun 02 2023
Swipe left to see all data
    Chg (%) Return (%) Return (%) as of May 31, 2023
    1 Day Time ET(*) Jun 2023 1M 6M 1Y 5Y 10Y 30Y MAX
(~47Y)
Craig Israelsen 7Twelve Portfolio 1.26 2.15 -2.34 -2.59 -7.68 3.63 3.71 6.60 9.16
US Inflation Adjusted return -2.34 -4.40 -11.05 -0.17 1.00 3.99 5.32
Components
VNQ
Vanguard Real Estate 2.44 Jun 02 2023 2.45 -3.96 -6.98 -15.87 4.07 5.34 8.35 6.94
VV
Vanguard Large-Cap 1.46 Jun 02 2023 2.50 0.73 3.57 2.95 10.80 11.85 9.84 8.93
EFA
iShares MSCI EAFE 1.30 Jun 02 2023 2.80 -4.01 5.71 3.63 3.34 4.64 4.67 7.99
EEM
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets 1.72 Jun 02 2023 3.53 -2.40 -1.90 -8.29 -1.39 1.39 5.57 7.36
IJR
iShares Core S&P Small-Cap 4.12 Jun 02 2023 5.01 -1.67 -8.53 -7.27 3.75 8.89 9.76 11.34
VO
Vanguard Mid-Cap 2.13 Jun 02 2023 3.07 -2.63 -5.01 -4.96 7.05 9.41 10.54 10.70
IEI
iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond -0.62 Jun 02 2023 -0.33 -0.93 1.68 -1.33 0.87 0.91 4.24 4.49
BIL
SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill 0.01 Jun 02 2023 0.07 0.38 2.15 3.16 1.33 0.77 2.20 3.99
GSG
iShares S&P GSCI Commodity Indexed Trust 1.89 Jun 02 2023 3.70 -6.23 -13.52 -25.44 1.08 -4.89 1.07 2.08
Returns over 1 year are annualized | Available data source: since Jan 1976
(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)
US Inflation is updated to Apr 2023. Waiting for updates, inflation of May 2023 is set to 0%. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 3.79% , 5Y: 3.81% , 10Y: 2.68% , 30Y: 2.51%
Live update: World Markets and Indexes

In 2022, the Craig Israelsen 7Twelve Portfolio granted a 1.32% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Craig Israelsen 7Twelve Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.

Portfolio Metrics as of May 31, 2023

Metrics of Craig Israelsen 7Twelve Portfolio, updated as of 31 May 2023.

Portfolio metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:
CRAIG ISRAELSEN 7TWELVE PORTFOLIO
Portfolio Metrics
Data Source: 1 January 1976 - 31 May 2023 (~47 years)
Swipe left to see all data
Metrics as of May 31, 2023
1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
(~47Y)
Portfolio Return (%) -2.34 -1.59 -2.59 -7.68 7.85 3.63 3.71 5.75 6.60 9.16
US Inflation (%) 0.00 0.84 1.90 3.79 5.77 3.81 2.68 2.55 2.51 3.65
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) -2.34 -2.40 -4.40 -11.05 1.97 -0.17 1.00 3.12 3.99 5.32
Waiting for updates, inflation of May 2023 is temporarily set to 0%. Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized.
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%) 13.08 10.68 11.76 9.40 10.37 9.74 9.48
Sharpe Ratio -0.83 0.64 0.20 0.31 0.44 0.45 0.55
Sortino Ratio -1.18 0.85 0.25 0.40 0.56 0.58 0.71
MAXIMUM DRAWDOWN
Drawdown Depth (%) -12.12 -13.28 -17.90 -17.90 -37.96 -37.96 -37.96
Start (yyyy mm) 2022 06 2022 04 2020 01 2020 01 2008 06 2008 06 2008 06
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2022 09 2022 09 2020 03 2020 03 2009 02 2009 02 2009 02
Start to Bottom (# months) 4 6 3 3 9 9 9
Start to Recovery (# months) in progress
> 12
> 14
11
11
33
33
33
ROLLING PERIOD RETURNS - Annualized
Best Return (%) 38.69 22.81 20.49 16.25 13.62 12.41
Worst Return (%) -33.99 -7.23 -0.15 2.73 4.91 6.60
% Positive Periods 83% 95% 100% 100% 100% 100%
MONTHS
Positive 0 2 3 6 24 40 79 159 237 386
Negative 1 1 3 6 12 20 41 81 123 183
% Positive 0% 67% 50% 50% 67% 67% 66% 66% 66% 68%
WITHDRAWAL RATES (WR)
Safe WR (%) 39.26 20.80 11.00 8.02 6.93 7.17
Perpetual WR (%) 1.93 0.00 0.99 3.03 3.83 5.05
Terms and Definitions
  • Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio
  • Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean
  • Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return.
  • Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation).
  • Maximum Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.
  • Rolling Returns: returns over a time frame (best, worst, % of positive returns).
  • Pos./Neg. Months: number of months with positive/negative return.
  • Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the original portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money (dollar amount withdrawal).
  • Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year, while retaining the inflation adjusted portfolio balance (percentage withdrawal).

Portfolio Components Correlation

Correlation measures to what degree the returns of the two assets move in relation to each other.

Correlation coefficient is a numerical value between -1 and +1.

If one variable goes up by a certain amount, the correlation coefficient indicates which way the other variable moves and by how much.

Asset correlations are calculated based on monthly returns.
COMPONENTS MONTHLY CORRELATIONS
Monthly correlations as of 31 May 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Asset
VNQ
VV
EFA
EEM
IJR
VO
IEI
BIL
GSG
VNQ
-
0.91
0.91
0.76
0.88
0.95
0.77
-0.10
0.69
VV
0.91
-
0.87
0.64
0.89
0.96
0.72
-0.03
0.76
EFA
0.91
0.87
-
0.85
0.77
0.88
0.81
0.16
0.74
EEM
0.76
0.64
0.85
-
0.50
0.66
0.79
0.22
0.44
IJR
0.88
0.89
0.77
0.50
-
0.96
0.46
-0.26
0.75
VO
0.95
0.96
0.88
0.66
0.96
-
0.63
-0.15
0.79
IEI
0.77
0.72
0.81
0.79
0.46
0.63
-
0.15
0.46
BIL
-0.10
-0.03
0.16
0.22
-0.26
-0.15
0.15
-
0.00
GSG
0.69
0.76
0.74
0.44
0.75
0.79
0.46
0.00
-
Asset
VNQ
VV
EFA
EEM
IJR
VO
IEI
BIL
GSG
VNQ
-
0.84
0.79
0.64
0.79
0.87
0.17
-0.21
0.47
VV
0.84
-
0.88
0.71
0.89
0.96
0.12
-0.16
0.48
EFA
0.79
0.88
-
0.84
0.85
0.89
0.19
-0.08
0.57
EEM
0.64
0.71
0.84
-
0.73
0.74
0.19
-0.09
0.48
IJR
0.79
0.89
0.85
0.73
-
0.94
-0.06
-0.27
0.60
VO
0.87
0.96
0.89
0.74
0.94
-
0.05
-0.23
0.55
IEI
0.17
0.12
0.19
0.19
-0.06
0.05
-
0.22
-0.32
BIL
-0.21
-0.16
-0.08
-0.09
-0.27
-0.23
0.22
-
-0.38
GSG
0.47
0.48
0.57
0.48
0.60
0.55
-0.32
-0.38
-
Asset
VNQ
VV
EFA
EEM
IJR
VO
IEI
BIL
GSG
VNQ
-
0.72
0.64
0.52
0.67
0.76
0.26
-0.16
0.25
VV
0.72
-
0.86
0.69
0.86
0.95
0.03
-0.12
0.42
EFA
0.64
0.86
-
0.82
0.76
0.85
0.11
-0.05
0.51
EEM
0.52
0.69
0.82
-
0.62
0.69
0.14
-0.06
0.44
IJR
0.67
0.86
0.76
0.62
-
0.92
-0.12
-0.22
0.49
VO
0.76
0.95
0.85
0.69
0.92
-
0.00
-0.18
0.45
IEI
0.26
0.03
0.11
0.14
-0.12
0.00
-
0.15
-0.31
BIL
-0.16
-0.12
-0.05
-0.06
-0.22
-0.18
0.15
-
-0.17
GSG
0.25
0.42
0.51
0.44
0.49
0.45
-0.31
-0.17
-
Asset
VNQ
VV
EFA
EEM
IJR
VO
IEI
BIL
GSG
VNQ
-
0.61
0.59
0.51
0.64
0.68
0.03
-0.02
0.26
VV
0.61
-
0.82
0.72
0.82
0.92
-0.11
-0.02
0.34
EFA
0.59
0.82
-
0.80
0.74
0.82
-0.12
-0.04
0.45
EEM
0.51
0.72
0.80
-
0.69
0.75
-0.10
-0.03
0.38
IJR
0.64
0.82
0.74
0.69
-
0.92
-0.20
-0.06
0.39
VO
0.68
0.92
0.82
0.75
0.92
-
-0.15
-0.03
0.40
IEI
0.03
-0.11
-0.12
-0.10
-0.20
-0.15
-
0.18
-0.08
BIL
-0.02
-0.02
-0.04
-0.03
-0.06
-0.03
0.18
-
0.03
GSG
0.26
0.34
0.45
0.38
0.39
0.40
-0.08
0.03
-
Asset
VNQ
VV
EFA
EEM
IJR
VO
IEI
BIL
GSG
VNQ
-
0.61
0.54
0.49
0.66
0.67
0.09
0.00
0.21
VV
0.61
-
0.75
0.71
0.84
0.93
0.09
0.00
0.24
EFA
0.54
0.75
-
0.69
0.67
0.73
0.07
0.01
0.33
EEM
0.49
0.71
0.69
-
0.66
0.72
0.06
-0.03
0.24
IJR
0.66
0.84
0.67
0.66
-
0.93
0.01
-0.01
0.28
VO
0.67
0.93
0.73
0.72
0.93
-
0.08
-0.01
0.28
IEI
0.09
0.09
0.07
0.06
0.01
0.08
-
0.20
-0.06
BIL
0.00
0.00
0.01
-0.03
-0.01
-0.01
0.20
-
0.04
GSG
0.21
0.24
0.33
0.24
0.28
0.28
-0.06
0.04
-

If you want to learn more about historical correlations, you can find out here how the main asset class are correlated to each other.

Readings that may interest you

Capital Growth as of May 31, 2023

An investment of 1000$, since June 1993, now would be worth 6794.40$, with a total return of 579.44% (6.60% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 3229.64$, with a net total return of 222.96% (3.99% annualized).
An investment of 1000$, since January 1976, now would be worth 63892.29$, with a total return of 6289.23% (9.16% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 11689.04$, with a net total return of 1068.90% (5.32% annualized).

Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

CRAIG ISRAELSEN 7TWELVE PORTFOLIO
Drawdown periods
Updated to May 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months
-37.96% Jun 2008 Feb 2009 9 Feb 2011 24 33
-17.90% Jan 2020 Mar 2020 3 Nov 2020 8 11
-14.54% Jul 2014 Feb 2016 20 Jul 2017 17 37
-13.54% Apr 1998 Aug 1998 5 Apr 1999 8 13
-13.50% May 2011 Sep 2011 5 Dec 2012 15 20
-13.28% Apr 2022 Sep 2022 6 in progress 8 14
-10.05% Feb 2001 Sep 2001 8 Apr 2003 19 27
-9.83% Oct 2018 Dec 2018 3 Apr 2019 4 7
-6.66% Feb 1994 Nov 1994 10 May 1995 6 16
-5.06% Apr 2004 Apr 2004 1 Sep 2004 5 6
-4.35% Nov 2007 Jan 2008 3 Apr 2008 3 6
-3.93% May 2019 May 2019 1 Oct 2019 5 6
-3.70% Oct 1997 Jan 1998 4 Mar 1998 2 6
-3.52% Nov 2021 Nov 2021 1 Dec 2021 1 2
-3.44% Oct 2005 Oct 2005 1 Dec 2005 2 3
-3.26% Jul 1996 Jul 1996 1 Sep 1996 2 3
-3.22% Feb 2018 Feb 2018 1 Jul 2018 5 6
-3.19% Nov 1993 Nov 1993 1 Dec 1993 1 2
-2.79% Sep 2000 Nov 2000 3 Jan 2001 2 5
-2.41% May 2006 May 2006 1 Aug 2006 3 4
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months
-37.96% Jun 2008 Feb 2009 9 Feb 2011 24 33
-17.90% Jan 2020 Mar 2020 3 Nov 2020 8 11
-14.54% Jul 2014 Feb 2016 20 Jul 2017 17 37
-13.54% Apr 1998 Aug 1998 5 Apr 1999 8 13
-13.50% May 2011 Sep 2011 5 Dec 2012 15 20
-13.43% Sep 1987 Nov 1987 3 Oct 1988 11 14
-13.28% Apr 2022 Sep 2022 6 in progress 8 14
-10.52% Feb 1980 Mar 1980 2 Jun 1980 3 5
-10.05% Feb 2001 Sep 2001 8 Apr 2003 19 27
-9.83% Oct 2018 Dec 2018 3 Apr 2019 4 7
-8.68% Dec 1980 Sep 1981 10 Sep 1982 12 22
-6.66% Feb 1994 Nov 1994 10 May 1995 6 16
-6.26% Oct 1979 Oct 1979 1 Dec 1979 2 3
-5.84% Oct 1978 Oct 1978 1 Jan 1979 3 4
-5.15% Jan 1990 Apr 1990 4 Jul 1990 3 7
-5.06% Apr 2004 Apr 2004 1 Sep 2004 5 6
-4.35% Nov 2007 Jan 2008 3 Apr 2008 3 6
-3.93% May 2019 May 2019 1 Oct 2019 5 6
-3.70% Oct 1997 Jan 1998 4 Mar 1998 2 6
-3.66% Sep 1986 Sep 1986 1 Jan 1987 4 5

Rolling Returns ( more details)

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

CRAIG ISRAELSEN 7TWELVE PORTFOLIO
Annualized Rolling Returns
Data Source: from January 1976 to May 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Rolling
Period		 Annualized Return (%) Negative
Periods
Average Latest Best Worst
1 Year
 9.73 -7.68 38.69
Jul 1982 - Jun 1983 		-33.99
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009 		16.67%
2 Years
 9.61 -1.70 27.21
Mar 2009 - Feb 2011 		-15.17
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009 		8.97%
3 Years
 9.49 7.85 22.81
Aug 1984 - Jul 1987 		-7.23
Mar 2006 - Feb 2009 		5.24%
5 Years
 9.38 3.63 20.49
Aug 1982 - Jul 1987 		-0.15
Mar 2004 - Feb 2009 		0.39%
7 Years
 9.42 4.95 17.56
Aug 1982 - Jul 1989 		0.86
Apr 2013 - Mar 2020 		0.00%
10 Years
 9.50 3.71 16.25
Aug 1982 - Jul 1992 		2.73
Nov 2007 - Oct 2017 		0.00%
15 Years
 9.47 3.07 14.84
Aug 1982 - Jul 1997 		3.07
Jun 2008 - May 2023 		0.00%
20 Years
 9.53 5.75 13.62
Oct 1977 - Sep 1997 		4.91
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020 		0.00%
30 Years
 9.50 6.60 12.41
Nov 1977 - Oct 2007 		6.60
Jun 1993 - May 2023 		0.00%
Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods

If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Craig Israelsen 7Twelve Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Considering all 10-year rolling periods, is there a relationship between past and future returns, at a given date?

In the following chart, we show how past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis) are related.

Neighboring data is aggregated and occurrences are indicated. It is possible to zoom by clicking or drawing the desired area

CRAIG ISRAELSEN 7TWELVE PORTFOLIO
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Updated to May 2023

The annualized return of the last 10 years has been 3.71% (updated at May 31, 2023).

Seasonality

In which months is it better to invest in Craig Israelsen 7Twelve Portfolio?

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.

For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Gain Frequency
1.83
60%
-0.43
60%
-1.52
80%
1.32
80%
0.08
60%
0.47
80%
1.49
100%
-0.07
60%
-1.72
40%
0.57
60%
1.70
60%
0.55
60%
 Capital Growth on monthly avg returns
100
101.83
101.39
99.85
101.17
101.25
101.73
103.25
103.18
101.41
101.99
103.72
104.29
Best 6.4
2019 		3.4
2021 		1.8
2022 		3.7
2020 		3.9
2020 		3.9
2019 		3.2
2022 		2.4
2020 		1.3
2019 		3.9
2022 		7.8
2020 		3.8
2021
Worst -2.3
2020 		-4.5
2020 		-12.1
2020 		-2.7
2022 		-3.9
2019 		-5.5
2022 		0.0
2019 		-3.1
2022 		-7.0
2022 		-4.9
2018 		-3.5
2021 		-4.7
2018
Monthly Seasonality over the period Jun 2018 - May 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Gain Frequency
0.65
50%
0.15
60%
-0.24
70%
1.16
90%
0.33
70%
0.30
70%
0.95
80%
-0.34
60%
-0.89
50%
0.87
70%
0.90
60%
0.24
60%
 Capital Growth on monthly avg returns
100
100.65
100.80
100.56
101.73
102.06
102.37
103.34
103.00
102.08
102.97
103.90
104.15
Best 6.4
2019 		3.4
2021 		5.1
2016 		3.7
2020 		3.9
2020 		3.9
2019 		3.2
2013 		2.4
2020 		2.5
2013 		3.9
2022 		7.8
2020 		3.8
2021
Worst -3.1
2016 		-4.5
2020 		-12.1
2020 		-2.7
2022 		-3.9
2019 		-5.5
2022 		-1.9
2014 		-3.3
2015 		-7.0
2022 		-4.9
2018 		-3.5
2021 		-4.7
2018
Monthly Seasonality over the period Jun 2013 - May 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Gain Frequency
0.95
58%
0.45
60%
0.83
77%
1.49
83%
0.63
63%
0.53
64%
0.71
62%
0.67
70%
0.17
64%
0.21
62%
1.16
70%
1.44
81%
 Capital Growth on monthly avg returns
100
100.95
101.41
102.25
103.77
104.42
104.97
105.72
106.44
106.62
106.85
108.08
109.63
Best 6.9
1987 		5.0
1991 		5.3
2009 		7.0
2009 		6.8
2009 		4.0
2000 		5.4
2010 		6.0
1984 		6.0
2010 		7.7
2011 		7.8
2020 		7.2
1991
Worst -7.6
2009 		-6.6
2009 		-12.1
2020 		-5.1
2004 		-5.9
2010 		-5.5
2022 		-3.5
2008 		-8.1
1998 		-7.4
2011 		-15.3
2008 		-5.6
2008 		-4.7
2018
Monthly Seasonality over the period Jan 1976 - May 2023

Monthly/Yearly Returns

Craig Israelsen 7Twelve Portfolio data source starts from January 1976: let's focus on monthly and yearly returns.

We are providing two different views:
  • Histogram: it shows the distribution of the returns recorded so far
  • Plain Table: it shows the detailed monthly and yearly returns
MONTHLY RETURNS HISTOGRAM
Jan 1976 - May 2023
386 Positive Months (68%) - 183 Negative Months (32%)
MONTHLY RETURNS TABLE
Jan 1976 - May 2023
(Scroll down to see all data)
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Yearly Return(%)
Monthly Return(%)
Year Total Infl.Adj Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2023
 -0.07 -2.23 4.9 -3.2 0.7 0.1 -2.3
2022
 -7.91 -13.50 -1.2 0.4 1.8 -2.7 1.5 -5.5 3.2 -3.1 -7.0 3.9 3.8 -2.5
2021
 +16.41 +8.75 1.3 3.4 0.9 3.6 1.3 1.4 0.5 0.6 -1.1 3.5 -3.5 3.8
2020
 +3.64 +2.24 -2.3 -4.5 -12.1 3.7 3.9 2.3 3.1 2.4 -1.8 -1.0 7.8 3.5
2019
 +17.04 +14.43 6.4 1.7 1.2 1.9 -3.9 3.9 0.0 -1.2 1.3 1.4 0.8 2.7
2018
 -6.60 -8.35 2.1 -3.2 0.8 0.7 1.3 0.3 0.6 1.0 0.0 -4.9 -0.5 -4.7
2017
 +11.15 +8.86 1.0 1.4 -0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 2.0 0.0 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.2
2016
 +7.88 +5.68 -3.1 -0.4 5.1 1.8 0.5 1.4 0.5 0.0 1.0 -2.0 1.0 2.0
2015
 -6.71 -7.38 -1.0 2.6 -0.6 1.6 -0.4 -1.3 -1.8 -3.3 -1.8 3.1 -1.4 -2.3
2014
 -0.27 -1.02 -1.6 3.3 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.5 -1.9 1.6 -3.5 1.4 -0.7 -2.0
2013
 +9.98 +8.36 2.7 -0.6 1.6 0.8 -1.0 -1.4 3.2 -1.4 2.5 2.0 0.5 0.8
2012
 +9.05 +7.18 4.0 2.6 0.2 -0.1 -5.9 2.5 1.3 2.3 0.7 -1.2 1.0 1.7
2011
 -0.33 -3.20 1.2 2.0 1.1 3.0 -1.3 -2.0 0.1 -3.5 -7.4 7.7 -0.4 -0.1
2010
 +12.87 +11.21 -3.3 2.7 3.7 2.1 -5.9 -1.9 5.4 -2.5 6.0 2.6 -0.3 4.4
2009
 +19.77 +16.60 -7.6 -6.6 5.3 7.0 6.8 -0.7 5.2 2.6 3.1 -1.3 3.6 2.1
2008
 -24.01 -24.08 -2.3 1.6 0.1 3.8 2.5 -1.9 -3.5 -1.3 -5.7 -15.3 -5.6 2.0
2007
 +11.31 +6.95 1.0 0.4 1.2 1.7 1.2 -0.4 -0.6 0.8 4.3 3.4 -2.4 0.3
2006
 +12.08 +9.30 3.9 -1.4 1.5 1.8 -2.4 0.1 1.2 1.2 -0.2 3.3 3.3 -0.7
2005
 +11.36 +7.68 -1.3 3.0 -1.0 -1.0 2.0 1.9 2.8 1.9 1.9 -3.4 2.3 2.0
2004
 +14.33 +10.72 1.9 2.9 1.6 -5.1 1.7 0.8 -1.1 1.6 2.8 2.3 2.7 1.6
2003
 +25.20 +22.90 -0.1 0.8 -1.9 3.7 5.7 0.6 0.4 3.0 1.4 4.0 1.4 4.1
2002
 +4.93 +2.49 -0.7 1.2 4.6 0.8 -1.0 -1.3 -3.1 2.3 -1.4 0.5 2.1 1.1
2001
 -4.66 -6.12 1.4 -3.2 -3.3 4.2 0.0 -1.0 -0.4 -0.4 -6.1 1.2 1.8 1.5
2000
 +11.53 +7.88 -0.6 3.6 1.7 -1.7 0.9 4.0 -1.5 5.2 -1.2 -1.4 -0.2 2.6
1999
 +19.24 +16.12 0.0 -3.0 5.0 5.1 -1.9 3.5 -0.3 0.7 0.6 0.4 3.0 5.0
1998
 -1.40 -2.97 -0.4 2.0 2.0 -0.4 -2.5 -0.5 -2.6 -8.1 5.0 2.5 0.8 1.5
1997
 +7.34 +5.54 0.9 -0.8 -1.5 1.2 3.7 1.7 3.7 -2.1 4.0 -2.5 -1.0 0.2
1996
 +16.09 +12.36 1.6 0.6 1.5 2.3 0.7 0.8 -3.3 2.2 2.9 0.7 4.5 0.7
1995
 +18.64 +15.70 -1.1 1.6 1.5 2.2 2.6 1.0 2.4 0.7 1.4 -0.8 2.4 3.5
1994
 -1.53 -4.09 4.1 -2.5 -3.8 1.3 0.5 -0.5 1.9 1.1 -1.8 0.4 -3.1 1.3
1993
 +17.28 +14.14 3.2 1.6 3.7 0.2 0.0 1.3 1.1 3.1 0.4 1.3 -3.2 3.5
1992
 +5.45 +2.48 1.0 -0.4 -1.4 1.0 3.4 -2.1 2.2 -0.3 0.6 -0.5 1.2 1.0
1991
 +26.17 +22.42 1.9 5.0 2.0 1.4 2.8 -3.3 3.0 2.8 1.6 2.5 -2.8 7.2
1990
 +1.68 -4.17 -3.4 -0.3 0.1 -1.7 4.3 0.6 2.7 -3.3 0.6 0.5 0.6 1.1
1989
 +27.09 +21.45 3.3 1.2 1.0 3.6 2.2 0.7 3.2 2.2 2.8 -1.5 1.8 3.9
1988
 +17.78 +12.79 4.7 3.0 0.6 1.1 -0.2 3.1 -0.4 -1.6 1.6 2.0 0.5 2.4
1987
 +3.08 -1.30 6.9 1.6 0.7 0.6 0.0 1.8 3.1 1.2 -1.3 -11.0 -1.4 2.0
1986
 +16.22 +14.96 -0.4 3.9 4.6 1.5 0.3 2.9 -1.4 5.3 -3.7 1.5 1.7 -0.7
1985
 +24.57 +20.02 5.1 0.4 1.3 0.1 4.2 0.9 0.1 0.3 -0.7 3.8 4.0 2.8
1984
 +8.53 +4.41 0.5 -1.6 1.3 0.2 -2.4 1.1 -1.0 6.0 1.1 1.4 0.5 1.4
1983
 +17.12 +12.84 2.2 2.0 3.3 4.5 0.5 2.2 -1.5 0.4 1.0 -1.2 1.9 0.7
1982
 +15.88 +11.60 -0.1 -2.5 -0.1 3.1 -1.1 -2.6 0.4 5.7 1.5 6.9 3.5 0.8
1981
 -1.36 -9.44 -2.1 -0.2 3.1 -0.9 1.5 -1.2 -0.3 -3.7 -2.8 4.7 3.6 -2.6
1980
 +16.18 +3.26 3.5 -2.4 -8.4 5.3 5.2 3.4 4.1 0.2 1.9 1.7 3.7 -2.2
1979
 +20.37 +6.25 4.4 -0.2 3.5 1.5 -1.1 3.5 0.5 5.8 0.5 -6.3 5.2 2.1
1978
 +13.62 +4.22 -1.6 0.4 4.1 4.2 2.5 -2.0 3.6 3.4 0.9 -5.8 2.8 0.8
1977
 +7.11 +0.38 -1.2 -0.3 0.9 1.8 -0.5 2.6 -1.8 0.2 1.0 -0.9 3.6 1.6
1976
 +15.46 +10.11 6.1 1.9 1.1 0.2 -1.0 2.5 -1.3 0.0 -0.1 -0.8 2.0 4.2

Portofolio Returns, up to December 2007, are simulated. They have been calculated using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.

In particular, it has been used:

  • VNQ - Vanguard Real Estate: simulated historical serie, up to December 2004
  • VV - Vanguard Large-Cap: simulated historical serie, up to December 2004
  • EFA - iShares MSCI EAFE: simulated historical serie, up to December 2001
  • EEM - iShares MSCI Emerging Markets: simulated historical serie, up to December 2003
  • IJR - iShares Core S&P Small-Cap: simulated historical serie, up to December 2000
  • VO - Vanguard Mid-Cap: simulated historical serie, up to December 2004
  • IEI - iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
  • BIL - SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
  • GSG - iShares S&P GSCI Commodity Indexed Trust: simulated historical serie, up to December 2006

Portfolio efficiency

Compared to the Craig Israelsen 7Twelve Portfolio, the following portfolios granted a higher return over 30 Years and a less severe drawdown at the same time.

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30 Years Stats (%)
% Allocation
Portfolio Author Return▾ Dev.Std Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm
Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Momentum +9.28 9.43 -32.52 60 40 0
Stocks/Bonds 60/40 +7.93 9.46 -30.55 60 40 0
Couch Potato Scott Burns +7.88 8.66 -27.04 50 50 0
Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Momentum +7.77 6.87 -21.11 40 60 0
Golden Butterfly Tyler +7.52 7.52 -17.79 40 40 20
Coffeehouse Bill Schultheis +7.42 9.53 -33.93 60 40 0
Robo Advisor 50 Betterment +7.29 9.24 -30.72 49.9 50.1 0
Sheltered Sam 60/40 Bill Bernstein +7.25 9.15 -34.12 58.2 40 1.8
Pinwheel +7.25 10.41 -36.89 65 25 10
Dimensional 2030 Retirement Income DFA +7.25 9.17 -31.78 55.9 44.1 0
Tilt Toward Value Time Inc +7.25 9.29 -34.63 60 40 0
Marc Faber Portfolio Marc Faber +7.20 9.54 -28.82 50 25 25
All Weather Portfolio Ray Dalio +7.19 7.21 -20.19 30 55 15
Edge Select Moderate Merrill Lynch +7.18 8.84 -29.58 53 47 0
Five Fold Scott Burns +7.18 9.64 -37.94 60 40 0
Simple Money Portfolio Tim Maurer +7.08 9.00 -32.39 60 40 0
Sandwich Portfolio Bob Clyatt +7.08 8.23 -28.96 55 45 0
Nano Portfolio John Wasik +7.04 9.55 -36.66 60 40 0
Simple and Cheap Time Inc +7.02 9.29 -34.84 60 40 0
Global Market Portfolio Credit Suisse +6.96 8.14 -25.90 45 55 0
Ultimate Buy&Hold FundAdvice +6.95 9.20 -34.23 60 40 0
Coward's Portfolio Bill Bernstein +6.94 9.02 -32.68 60 40 0
LifeStrategy Moderate Growth Vanguard +6.90 9.43 -33.52 60 40 0
Dynamic 40/60 Income +6.88 8.02 -29.84 40 60 0
Big Rocks Portfolio Larry Swedroe +6.87 9.06 -33.80 60 40 0
One-Decision Portfolio Marvin Appel +6.84 8.25 -31.96 50 50 0
GAA Global Asset Allocation Mebane Faber +6.84 7.93 -24.91 40.5 49.5 10
Stocks/Bonds 40/60 +6.84 6.83 -19.17 40 60 0
Simplified Permanent Portfolio +6.79 6.79 -16.43 25 50 25
Sheltered Sam 50/50 Bill Bernstein +6.77 7.75 -28.23 48.5 50 1.5
Four Square Scott Burns +6.64 8.39 -29.95 50 50 0
7Twelve Portfolio Craig Israelsen +6.60 9.74 -37.96 50 33.3 16.7

Here's a list containing the Best Classic Portfolios, with the highest returns over 30 Years and High Risk categorization.

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30 Years Stats (%)
% Allocation
Portfolio Author Return▾ Dev.Std Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm
Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Momentum +9.28 9.43 -32.52 60 40 0
Simple Path to Wealth JL Collins +8.66 11.60 -38.53 75 25 0
Late Sixties and Beyond Burton Malkiel +8.19 11.57 -41.80 71 29 0
Yale Endowment David Swensen +8.06 10.83 -39.48 70 30 0
Talmud Portfolio Roger Gibson +8.00 10.64 -40.17 66.7 33.3 0