Gold Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns

Data Source: from January 1871 to April 2024 (~153 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 30 April 2024
Live Update: May 23 2024, 12:00PM Eastern Time Currency: USD
PORTFOLIO • LIVE PERFORMANCE (USD currency)
1.38%
1 Day
May 23 2024, 12:00PM Eastern Time
2.46%
Current Month
May 2024

The Gold Portfolio is a Very High Risk portfolio and can be implemented with 1 ETF.

It's exposed for 0% on the Stock Market and for 100% on Commodities.

In the last 30 Years, the Gold Portfolio obtained a 5.91% compound annual return, with a 15.50% standard deviation.

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Asset Allocation and ETFs

The Gold Portfolio has the following asset allocation:

0% Stocks
0% Fixed Income
100% Commodities

The Gold Portfolio can be implemented with the following ETFs:

Weight
(%)
Investment Themes (Orig.Currency) ETF
Ticker
ETF
Currency
ETF Name
100.00 Commodity, Gold (USD)
GLD
USD SPDR Gold Trust

Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

Portfolio and ETF Returns as of Apr 30, 2024

The Gold Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.

Returns are calculated in USD, assuming:
  • no fees or capital gain taxes.
  • the actual US Inflation rates.
GOLD PORTFOLIO
Consolidated returns as of 30 April 2024
Live Update: May 23 2024, 12:00PM Eastern Time
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  Chg (%) Return (%) Return (%) as of Apr 30, 2024
  1 Day Time ET(*) May 2024 1M 6M 1Y 5Y 10Y 30Y MAX
(~153Y)
Gold Portfolio -1.38 2.46 2.99 15.09 14.65 11.82 5.48 5.91 2.99
US Inflation Adjusted return 2.67 13.00 10.92 7.33 2.56 3.28 0.85
Returns over 1 year are annualized | Available data source: since Jan 1871
(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)
US Inflation is updated to Apr 2024. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 3.36% , 5Y: 4.18% , 10Y: 2.85% , 30Y: 2.55%

Capital Growth as of Apr 30, 2024

An investment of 1$, since May 1994, now would be worth 5.60$, with a total return of 459.73% (5.91% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 2.63$, with a net total return of 163.06% (3.28% annualized).
An investment of 1$, since January 1871, now would be worth 92.23$, with a total return of 9122.85% (2.99% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 3.67$, with a net total return of 267.45% (0.85% annualized).

Portfolio Metrics as of Apr 30, 2024

Metrics of Gold Portfolio, updated as of 30 April 2024.

Metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:
  • no fees or capital gain taxes.
  • the actual US Inflation rates.
GOLD PORTFOLIO
Advanced Metrics
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 30 April 2024 (~153 years)
Swipe left to see all data
Metrics as of Apr 30, 2024
1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
(~153Y)
Investment Return (%) 2.99 12.43 15.09 14.65 8.55 11.82 5.48 8.82 5.91 2.99
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) details 2.67 11.16 13.00 10.92 2.89 7.33 2.56 6.06 3.28 0.85
US Inflation (%) 0.31 1.14 1.85 3.36 5.50 4.18 2.85 2.60 2.55 2.12
Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized.
DRAWDOWN
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -7.22 -15.91 -18.08 -20.76 -42.91 -42.91 -61.78
Start to Recovery (# months) details 7 12 40 25 107 107 319
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 05 2022 04 2020 08 2014 07 2011 09 2011 09 1980 10
Start to Bottom (# months) 5 7 27 18 52 52 227
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 09 2022 10 2022 10 2015 12 2015 12 2015 12 1999 08
Bottom to End (# months) 2 5 13 7 55 55 92
End (yyyy mm) 2023 11 2023 03 2023 11 2016 07 2020 07 2020 07 2007 04
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest
-18.08
same as
deepest

same as
deepest
-12.20
Start to Recovery (# months) details 40 685
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 05 2022 04 2020 08 2020 08 2011 09 2011 09 1876 01
Start to Bottom (# months) 5 7 27 27 52 52 37
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 09 2022 10 2022 10 2022 10 2015 12 2015 12 1879 01
Bottom to End (# months) 2 5 13 13 55 55 648
End (yyyy mm) 2023 11 2023 03 2023 11 2023 11 2020 07 2020 07 1933 01
Longest negative period (# months) details 6 28 39 61 145 145 744
Period Start (yyyy mm) 2023 05 2021 06 2020 08 2014 05 2011 09 2011 09 1871 01
Period End (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2023 09 2023 10 2019 05 2023 09 2023 09 1932 12
Annualized Return (%) -0.77 -1.68 -0.22 -0.14 -0.30 -0.30 -0.16
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -8.51 -23.25 -28.93 -28.93 -45.71 -45.71 -82.52
Start to Recovery (# months) details 7 35 45* 45* 152* 152* 531*
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 05 2021 06 2020 08 2020 08 2011 09 2011 09 1980 02
Start to Bottom (# months) 5 17 27 27 52 52 254
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 09 2022 10 2022 10 2022 10 2015 12 2015 12 2001 03
Bottom to End (# months) 2 18 18 18 100 100 277
End (yyyy mm) 2023 11 2024 04 - - - - -
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest
-20.94
same as
deepest

same as
deepest
-72.42
Start to Recovery (# months) details 62 929
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 05 2021 06 2020 08 2014 07 2011 09 2011 09 1896 10
Start to Bottom (# months) 5 17 27 18 52 52 886
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 09 2022 10 2022 10 2015 12 2015 12 2015 12 1970 07
Bottom to End (# months) 2 18 18 44 100 100 43
End (yyyy mm) 2023 11 2024 04 - 2019 08 - - 1974 02
Longest negative period (# months) details 10 34 49 102 159 159 1587
Period Start (yyyy mm) 2023 05 2021 05 2019 09 2014 05 2010 07 2010 07 1871 01
Period End (yyyy mm) 2024 02 2024 02 2023 09 2022 10 2023 09 2023 09 2003 03
Annualized Return (%) -0.24 -0.71 -0.15 -0.35 -0.03 -0.03 0.00
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
RISK INDICATORS
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Standard Deviation (%) 12.93 14.10 14.76 14.21 16.67 15.50 12.67
Sharpe Ratio 0.72 0.42 0.67 0.30 0.45 0.23 -0.08
Sortino Ratio 1.14 0.64 1.01 0.45 0.65 0.35 -0.14
Ulcer Index 2.45 5.92 6.97 8.33 19.54 20.47 22.32
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 1.13 0.61 0.80 0.39 0.53 0.38 0.24
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 2.03 0.54 0.65 0.26 0.21 0.14 0.05
% Positive Months details 58% 50% 51% 47% 52% 50% 81%
Positive Months 7 18 31 57 126 183 1498
Negative Months 5 18 29 63 114 177 342
LONG TERM RETURNS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 5.48 12.40 20.54 34.02
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized -1.05 -1.05 -5.99
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 2.56 9.86 17.65 24.69
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized -3.48 -3.48 -10.17
ROLLING PERIODS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Over the latest 30Y
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 54.21 32.87 23.37 20.54 9.95 5.91
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -28.33 -15.02 -8.25 -1.05 4.91
% Positive Periods 61% 67% 70% 96% 100% 100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 82.56 24.17 13.87 6.91 4.90 4.04
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - - 2.11 2.50
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 48.31 30.94 21.04 17.65 7.75 3.28
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -29.40 -15.83 -10.50 -3.48 2.65
% Positive Periods 55% 58% 66% 80% 100% 100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 82.56 24.17 13.87 6.91 4.90 4.04
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - - 2.11 2.50
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Over all the available data source (Jan 1871 - Apr 2024)
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 179.42 70.26 39.62 34.02 15.64 9.81
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -37.71 -15.32 -14.69 -5.99 -4.36 -0.43
% Positive Periods 72% 76% 76% 78% 84% 93%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 72.10 19.10 10.00 4.59 1.73 1.06
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - - - -
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 145.39 55.18 30.97 24.69 10.01 5.44
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -42.05 -20.23 -19.61 -10.17 -7.77 -3.39
% Positive Periods 45% 41% 41% 45% 54% 66%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 72.10 19.10 10.00 4.59 1.73 1.06
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - - - -
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Terms and Definitions
  • Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio.
  • Deepest/Longest Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. The deepest (or maximum) drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained. The longest drawdown is the period observed from a peak to the subsequent peak with the greatest duration.
  • Longest negative period: it's the maximum period for which an overall negative return has been observed.
  • Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean.
  • Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return.
  • Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation).
  • Ulcer Index: it's a measure of downside risk that quantifies the depth and duration of drawdowns in an investment portfolio.
  • Best/Worst 10Y returns: the best and the worst 10-year return over a time frame.
  • Rolling Returns: N-year returns over a time frame, calculated over all the available data source (best, worst, % of positive returns). Each rolling period, longer than the longest negative period, yielded a non-negative minimum return.
  • Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money in any case (money amount withdrawal).
    For instance: Your initial invested capital is 100.000$; withdrawal rate (annualized) is 4%. This means that, in the first month, you will withdraw 100.000 * 4% * 1/12 = 333.33$. The second month, you’ll withdraw 333.33$ plus the inflation monthly rate. You’ll continue adjusting your withdraw monthly for inflation.
  • Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too.

Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

GOLD PORTFOLIO
Drawdown periods
Drawdown periods - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 May 1994 - 30 April 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 30 April 2024 (~153 years)
Inflation Adjusted:
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Rolling Returns

( more details)

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

GOLD PORTFOLIO
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 May 1994 - 30 April 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 30 April 2024 (~153 years)
Inflation Adjusted:

If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Gold Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.

Seasonality

In which months is it better to invest in Gold Portfolio?

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.
For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
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Monthly Returns

This section provides a visual/tabular representation of the performance variability in the Gold Portfolio over time. It illustrates the distribution of monthly returns, showcasing the range and frequency of positive and negative returns.

GOLD PORTFOLIO
Monthly Returns Distribution
Data Source: 1 May 1994 - 30 April 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 30 April 2024 (~153 years)
183 Positive Months (51%) - 177 Negative Months (49%)
1498 Positive Months (81%) - 342 Negative Months (19%)
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(Scroll down to see all data)
Investment Returns, up to December 2004, have been derived using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.
You can find additional information on extended Data Sources here.

In particular, the series derived from equivalent datasets are:
  • GLD - SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), up to December 2004

Portfolio efficiency

The following portfolios granted a higher return over 30 Years and a less severe drawdown at the same time.

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In the following table, you can compare the current portfolio with a list of famous portfolios. Metrics are calculated over the last 30 Years.

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