Gold Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns

Data Source: from January 1871 to February 2024 (~153 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 29 February 2024
Live Update: Mar 01 2024
PORTFOLIO • LIVE PERFORMANCE (USD currency)
1.89%
1 Day
Mar 01 2024
1.89%
Current Month
March 2024

The Gold Portfolio is a Very High Risk portfolio and can be implemented with 1 ETF.

It's exposed for 0% on the Stock Market and for 100% on Commodities.

In the last 30 Years, the Gold Portfolio obtained a 5.46% compound annual return, with a 15.44% standard deviation.

Table of contents
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Asset Allocation and ETFs

The Gold Portfolio has the following asset allocation:

0% Stocks
0% Fixed Income
100% Commodities

The Gold Portfolio can be implemented with the following ETFs:

Weight (%) Ticker Currency ETF Name Investment Themes
100.00
GLD
USD SPDR Gold Trust Commodity, Gold

Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

Portfolio and ETF Returns as of Feb 29, 2024

The Gold Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.

Returns are calculated in USD, assuming:
  • no fees or capital gain taxes.
  • the actual US Inflation rates.
GOLD PORTFOLIO
Consolidated returns as of 29 February 2024
Live Update: Mar 01 2024
Swipe left to see all data
  Chg (%) Return (%) Return (%) as of Feb 29, 2024
  1 Day Time ET(*) Mar 2024 1M 6M 1Y 5Y 10Y 30Y MAX
(~153Y)
Gold Portfolio 1.89 1.89 0.46 5.16 11.50 8.83 4.02 5.46 2.92
US Inflation Adjusted return 0.46 3.97 8.56 4.55 1.21 2.87 0.79
Returns over 1 year are annualized | Available data source: since Jan 1871
(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)
US Inflation is updated to Jan 2024. Pending updates, the monthly inflation is set at 0% for the subsequent periods. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 2.71% , 5Y: 4.10% , 10Y: 2.77% , 30Y: 2.52%

Capital Growth as of Feb 29, 2024

An investment of 1$, since March 1994, now would be worth 4.93$, with a total return of 393.44% (5.46% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 2.34$, with a net total return of 133.75% (2.87% annualized).
An investment of 1$, since January 1871, now would be worth 82.41$, with a total return of 8140.80% (2.92% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 3.32$, with a net total return of 232.06% (0.79% annualized).

Portfolio Metrics as of Feb 29, 2024

Metrics of Gold Portfolio, updated as of 29 February 2024.

Metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:
  • no fees or capital gain taxes.
  • the actual US Inflation rates.
GOLD PORTFOLIO
Advanced Metrics
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 29 February 2024 (~153 years)
Swipe left to see all data
Metrics as of Feb 29, 2024
1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
(~153Y)
Investment Return (%) 0.46 0.30 5.16 11.50 5.37 8.83 4.02 8.11 5.46 2.92
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) details 0.46 -0.24 3.97 8.56 -0.14 4.55 1.21 5.41 2.87 0.79
US Inflation (%) 0.00 0.54 1.14 2.71 5.52 4.10 2.77 2.56 2.52 2.12
Pending updates, the monthly inflation after Jan 2024 is set at 0%. Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized.
DRAWDOWN
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -7.22 -15.91 -18.08 -20.76 -42.91 -42.91 -61.78
Start to Recovery (# months) details 7 12 40 25 107 107 319
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 05 2022 04 2020 08 2014 07 2011 09 2011 09 1980 10
Start to Bottom (# months) 5 7 27 18 52 52 227
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 09 2022 10 2022 10 2015 12 2015 12 2015 12 1999 08
Bottom to End (# months) 2 5 13 7 55 55 92
End (yyyy mm) 2023 11 2023 03 2023 11 2016 07 2020 07 2020 07 2007 04
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest
-18.08
same as
deepest

same as
deepest
-12.20
Start to Recovery (# months) details 40 685
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 05 2022 04 2020 08 2020 08 2011 09 2011 09 1876 01
Start to Bottom (# months) 5 7 27 27 52 52 37
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 09 2022 10 2022 10 2022 10 2015 12 2015 12 1879 01
Bottom to End (# months) 2 5 13 13 55 55 648
End (yyyy mm) 2023 11 2023 03 2023 11 2023 11 2020 07 2020 07 1933 01
Longest negative period (# months) details 6 28 39 63 145 145 744
Period Start (yyyy mm) 2023 04 2021 06 2020 08 2014 03 2011 09 2011 09 1871 01
Period End (yyyy mm) 2023 09 2023 09 2023 10 2019 05 2023 09 2023 09 1932 12
Annualized Return (%) -12.44 -1.68 -0.22 -0.65 -0.30 -0.30 -0.16
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -8.51 -23.25 -28.93 -28.93 -45.71 -45.71 -82.52
Start to Recovery (# months) details 7 33* 43* 43* 150* 150* 529*
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 05 2021 06 2020 08 2020 08 2011 09 2011 09 1980 02
Start to Bottom (# months) 5 17 27 27 52 52 254
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 09 2022 10 2022 10 2022 10 2015 12 2015 12 2001 03
Bottom to End (# months) 2 16 16 16 98 98 275
End (yyyy mm) 2023 11 - - - - - -
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest
-21.24
same as
deepest

same as
deepest
-72.42
Start to Recovery (# months) details 66 929
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 05 2021 06 2020 08 2014 03 2011 09 2011 09 1896 10
Start to Bottom (# months) 5 17 27 22 52 52 886
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 09 2022 10 2022 10 2015 12 2015 12 2015 12 1970 07
Bottom to End (# months) 2 16 16 44 98 98 43
End (yyyy mm) 2023 11 - - 2019 08 - - 1974 02
Longest negative period (# months) details 9 36* 49 104 159 159 1587
Period Start (yyyy mm) 2023 05 2021 03 2019 09 2014 03 2010 07 2010 07 1871 01
Period End (yyyy mm) 2024 01 2024 02 2023 09 2022 10 2023 09 2023 09 2003 03
Annualized Return (%) -0.29 -0.14 -0.15 -0.70 -0.03 -0.03 0.00
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
RISK INDICATORS
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Standard Deviation (%) 12.37 13.39 14.38 14.00 16.75 15.44 12.66
Sharpe Ratio 0.51 0.22 0.49 0.20 0.40 0.21 -0.08
Sortino Ratio 0.82 0.35 0.75 0.31 0.58 0.31 -0.15
Ulcer Index 2.45 5.92 6.98 8.35 19.57 20.47 22.33
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 0.93 0.40 0.61 0.29 0.48 0.35 0.23
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 1.59 0.34 0.49 0.19 0.19 0.13 0.05
% Positive Months details 58% 47% 48% 46% 52% 50% 81%
Positive Months 7 17 29 56 125 182 1496
Negative Months 5 19 31 64 115 178 342
LONG TERM RETURNS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 4.02 12.40 20.54 34.02
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized -1.05 -1.05 -5.99
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 1.21 9.86 17.65 24.69
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized -3.48 -3.48 -10.17
ROLLING PERIODS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Over the latest 30Y
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 54.21 32.87 23.37 20.54 9.95 5.46
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -28.33 -15.02 -8.25 -1.05 4.91
% Positive Periods 61% 66% 69% 96% 100% 100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 82.56 24.17 13.87 6.91 4.83 3.96
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - - 2.11 2.27
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 48.31 30.94 21.04 17.65 7.75 2.87
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -29.40 -15.83 -10.50 -3.48 2.65
% Positive Periods 54% 57% 65% 79% 100% 100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 82.56 24.17 13.87 6.91 4.83 3.96
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - - 2.11 2.27
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Over all the available data source (Jan 1871 - Feb 2024)
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 179.42 70.26 39.62 34.02 15.64 9.81
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -37.71 -15.32 -14.69 -5.99 -4.36 -0.43
% Positive Periods 72% 76% 76% 78% 84% 93%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 72.10 19.10 10.00 4.59 1.73 1.06
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - - - -
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 145.39 55.18 30.97 24.69 10.01 5.44
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -42.05 -20.23 -19.61 -10.17 -7.77 -3.39
% Positive Periods 45% 41% 41% 45% 53% 66%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 72.10 19.10 10.00 4.59 1.73 1.06
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - - - -
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Terms and Definitions
  • Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio.
  • Deepest/Longest Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. The deepest (or maximum) drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained. The longest drawdown is the period observed from a peak to the subsequent peak with the greatest duration.
  • Longest negative period: it's the maximum period for which an overall negative return has been observed.
  • Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean.
  • Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return.
  • Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation).
  • Ulcer Index: it's a measure of downside risk that quantifies the depth and duration of drawdowns in an investment portfolio.
  • Best/Worst 10Y returns: the best and the worst 10-year return over a time frame.
  • Rolling Returns: N-year returns over a time frame, calculated over all the available data source (best, worst, % of positive returns). Each rolling period, longer than the longest negative period, yielded a non-negative minimum return.
  • Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money in any case (money amount withdrawal).
    For instance: Your initial invested capital is 100.000$; withdrawal rate (annualized) is 4%. This means that, in the first month, you will withdraw 100.000 * 4% * 1/12 = 333.33$. The second month, you’ll withdraw 333.33$ plus the inflation monthly rate. You’ll continue adjusting your withdraw monthly for inflation.
  • Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too.

Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

GOLD PORTFOLIO
Drawdown periods
Drawdown periods - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 March 1994 - 29 February 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 29 February 2024 (~153 years)
Inflation Adjusted:
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months Ulcer Index
-42.91% Sep 2011 Dec 2015 52 Jul 2020 55 107 28.29
-37.17% Feb 1996 Aug 1999 43 Dec 2003 52 95 24.75
-25.83% Mar 2008 Oct 2008 8 May 2009 7 15 10.74
-18.08% Aug 2020 Oct 2022 27 Nov 2023 13 40 8.45
-8.64% Dec 2004 May 2005 6 Sep 2005 4 10 5.30
-8.63% May 2006 Sep 2006 5 Feb 2007 5 10 4.31
-8.37% Dec 2009 Jan 2010 2 May 2010 4 6 5.13
-8.31% Apr 2004 Apr 2004 1 Oct 2004 6 7 5.49
-6.38% Jan 2011 Jan 2011 1 Mar 2011 2 3 3.21
-5.22% Jun 2009 Jun 2009 1 Sep 2009 3 4 2.98
-5.09% Jul 2010 Jul 2010 1 Aug 2010 1 2 2.94
-5.05% Oct 1994 Jan 1995 4 Jan 1996 12 16 2.75
-4.90% Jan 2004 Feb 2004 2 Mar 2004 1 3 3.15
-4.20% May 2007 Jun 2007 2 Sep 2007 3 5 2.14
-4.18% May 2011 Jun 2011 2 Jul 2011 1 3 2.27
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown (DD)
Occurrencies (EOM)
Drawdown (DD)
Range #Num Every (Avg) Frequency Cumulative Frequency
All Time High (DD=0%) 39 9.3 Months 10.80%
 
DD = 0% 10.80%
 
0% < DD <= -5% 80 4.5 Months 22.16%
 
DD <= -5% 32.96%
 
-5% < DD <= -10% 54 6.7 Months 14.96%
 
DD <= -10% 47.92%
 
-10% < DD <= -15% 30 12.0 Months 8.31%
 
DD <= -15% 56.23%
 
-15% < DD <= -20% 19 19.0 Months 5.26%
 
DD <= -20% 61.50%
 
-20% < DD <= -25% 14 25.8 Months 3.88%
 
DD <= -25% 65.37%
 
-25% < DD <= -30% 41 8.8 Months 11.36%
 
DD <= -30% 76.73%
 
-30% < DD <= -35% 60 6.0 Months 16.62%
 
DD <= -35% 93.35%
 
-35% < DD <= -40% 21 17.2 Months 5.82%
 
DD <= -40% 99.17%
 
-40% < DD <= -45% 3 120.3 Months 0.83%
 
DD <= -45% 100.00%
 
-45% < DD <= -50% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -50% 100.00%
 
-50% < DD <= -55% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -55% 100.00%
 
-55% < DD <= -60% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -60% 100.00%
 
-60% < DD <= -65% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -65% 100.00%
 
-65% < DD <= -70% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -70% 100.00%
 
-70% < DD <= -100% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -100% 100.00%
 
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months Ulcer Index
-45.71% Sep 2011 Dec 2015 52 in progress 98 150 30.32
-44.69% Apr 1994 Mar 2001 84 Jan 2006 58 142 26.91
-27.30% Mar 2008 Oct 2008 8 Sep 2009 11 19 10.55
-9.58% May 2006 Sep 2006 5 Feb 2007 5 10 4.97
-8.48% Dec 2009 Jan 2010 2 May 2010 4 6 5.18
-6.68% Jan 2011 Jan 2011 1 Apr 2011 3 4 3.06
-5.26% Jul 2010 Jul 2010 1 Sep 2010 2 3 2.63
-4.82% May 2007 Jun 2007 2 Sep 2007 3 5 2.61
-4.48% May 2011 Jun 2011 2 Jul 2011 1 3 2.48
-2.42% Nov 2007 Nov 2007 1 Dec 2007 1 2 1.40
-1.62% Mar 2007 Mar 2007 1 Apr 2007 1 2 0.94
-1.16% Feb 2006 Feb 2006 1 Mar 2006 1 2 0.67
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown (DD)
Occurrencies (EOM)
Drawdown (DD)
Range #Num Every (Avg) Frequency Cumulative Frequency
All Time High (DD=0%) 24 15.0 Months 6.65%
 
DD = 0% 6.65%
 
0% < DD <= -5% 43 8.4 Months 11.91%
 
DD <= -5% 18.56%
 
-5% < DD <= -10% 41 8.8 Months 11.36%
 
DD <= -10% 29.92%
 
-10% < DD <= -15% 21 17.2 Months 5.82%
 
DD <= -15% 35.73%
 
-15% < DD <= -20% 29 12.4 Months 8.03%
 
DD <= -20% 43.77%
 
-20% < DD <= -25% 38 9.5 Months 10.53%
 
DD <= -25% 54.29%
 
-25% < DD <= -30% 27 13.4 Months 7.48%
 
DD <= -30% 61.77%
 
-30% < DD <= -35% 50 7.2 Months 13.85%
 
DD <= -35% 75.62%
 
-35% < DD <= -40% 56 6.4 Months 15.51%
 
DD <= -40% 91.14%
 
-40% < DD <= -45% 30 12.0 Months 8.31%
 
DD <= -45% 99.45%
 
-45% < DD <= -50% 2 180.5 Months 0.55%
 
DD <= -50% 100.00%
 
-50% < DD <= -55% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -55% 100.00%
 
-55% < DD <= -60% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -60% 100.00%
 
-60% < DD <= -65% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -65% 100.00%
 
-65% < DD <= -70% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -70% 100.00%
 
-70% < DD <= -100% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -100% 100.00%
 
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months Ulcer Index
-61.78% Oct 1980 Aug 1999 227 Apr 2007 92 319 44.50
-44.24% Jan 1975 Aug 1976 20 Jul 1978 23 43 22.42
-42.91% Sep 2011 Dec 2015 52 Jul 2020 55 107 28.29
-25.83% Mar 2008 Oct 2008 8 May 2009 7 15 10.74
-24.27% Feb 1980 Mar 1980 2 Jun 1980 3 5 14.98
-20.49% Jul 1973 Oct 1973 4 Jan 1974 3 7 13.59
-20.28% Nov 1978 Nov 1978 1 Feb 1979 3 4 9.71
-19.77% May 1969 Jan 1970 9 Dec 1971 23 32 12.66
-18.25% Jan 1948 Jan 1955 85 Mar 1969 170 255 15.35
-18.08% Aug 2020 Oct 2022 27 Nov 2023 13 40 8.45
-16.62% Apr 1974 Jun 1974 3 Nov 1974 5 8 9.02
-12.20% Jan 1876 Jan 1879 37 Jan 1933 648 685 12.05
-8.37% Dec 2009 Jan 2010 2 May 2010 4 6 5.13
-6.88% Aug 1972 Nov 1972 4 Feb 1973 3 7 4.42
-6.38% Jan 2011 Jan 2011 1 Mar 2011 2 3 3.21
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown (DD)
Occurrencies (EOM)
Drawdown (DD)
Range #Num Every (Avg) Frequency Cumulative Frequency
All Time High (DD=0%) 240 7.7 Months 13.05%
 
DD = 0% 13.05%
 
0% < DD <= -5% 140 13.1 Months 7.61%
 
DD <= -5% 20.66%
 
-5% < DD <= -10% 128 14.4 Months 6.96%
 
DD <= -10% 27.62%
 
-10% < DD <= -15% 712 2.6 Months 38.72%
 
DD <= -15% 66.34%
 
-15% < DD <= -20% 213 8.6 Months 11.58%
 
DD <= -20% 77.92%
 
-20% < DD <= -25% 21 87.6 Months 1.14%
 
DD <= -25% 79.06%
 
-25% < DD <= -30% 30 61.3 Months 1.63%
 
DD <= -30% 80.70%
 
-30% < DD <= -35% 63 29.2 Months 3.43%
 
DD <= -35% 84.12%
 
-35% < DD <= -40% 64 28.7 Months 3.48%
 
DD <= -40% 87.60%
 
-40% < DD <= -45% 86 21.4 Months 4.68%
 
DD <= -45% 92.28%
 
-45% < DD <= -50% 57 32.3 Months 3.10%
 
DD <= -50% 95.38%
 
-50% < DD <= -55% 35 52.5 Months 1.90%
 
DD <= -55% 97.28%
 
-55% < DD <= -60% 41 44.9 Months 2.23%
 
DD <= -60% 99.51%
 
-60% < DD <= -65% 9 204.3 Months 0.49%
 
DD <= -65% 100.00%
 
-65% < DD <= -70% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -70% 100.00%
 
-70% < DD <= -100% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -100% 100.00%
 
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months Ulcer Index
-82.52% Feb 1980 Mar 2001 254 in progress 275 529 57.38
-72.42% Oct 1896 Jul 1970 886 Feb 1974 43 929 49.21
-49.85% Apr 1974 Aug 1976 29 Feb 1979 30 59 26.35
-23.39% Jul 1879 Aug 1882 38 Jun 1885 34 72 15.01
-12.11% Aug 1876 Jan 1877 6 Nov 1877 10 16 5.79
-11.89% Jul 1892 Feb 1893 8 Aug 1893 6 14 6.68
-10.15% Jul 1886 Jan 1888 19 Nov 1891 46 65 5.30
-9.52% Sep 1871 Feb 1873 18 Nov 1873 9 27 5.78
-6.67% Aug 1894 Jun 1895 11 Feb 1896 8 19 3.36
-5.59% Jan 1871 Mar 1871 3 May 1871 2 5 3.02
-5.41% Mar 1979 Mar 1979 1 May 1979 2 3 3.46
-5.18% Sep 1893 Oct 1893 2 Jan 1894 3 5 2.90
-4.86% Oct 1979 Oct 1979 1 Nov 1979 1 2 2.81
-4.49% Jan 1876 Jan 1876 1 Jun 1876 5 6 3.24
-3.43% Nov 1885 Dec 1885 2 Apr 1886 4 6 1.49
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown (DD)
Occurrencies (EOM)
Drawdown (DD)
Range #Num Every (Avg) Frequency Cumulative Frequency
All Time High (DD=0%) 73 25.2 Months 3.97%
 
DD = 0% 3.97%
 
0% < DD <= -5% 142 13.0 Months 7.72%
 
DD <= -5% 11.69%
 
-5% < DD <= -10% 96 19.2 Months 5.22%
 
DD <= -10% 16.91%
 
-10% < DD <= -15% 55 33.4 Months 2.99%
 
DD <= -15% 19.90%
 
-15% < DD <= -20% 57 32.3 Months 3.10%
 
DD <= -20% 23.00%
 
-20% < DD <= -25% 150 12.3 Months 8.16%
 
DD <= -25% 31.16%
 
-25% < DD <= -30% 120 15.3 Months 6.53%
 
DD <= -30% 37.68%
 
-30% < DD <= -35% 83 22.2 Months 4.51%
 
DD <= -35% 42.20%
 
-35% < DD <= -40% 146 12.6 Months 7.94%
 
DD <= -40% 50.14%
 
-40% < DD <= -45% 69 26.7 Months 3.75%
 
DD <= -45% 53.89%
 
-45% < DD <= -50% 80 23.0 Months 4.35%
 
DD <= -50% 58.24%
 
-50% < DD <= -55% 74 24.9 Months 4.02%
 
DD <= -55% 62.26%
 
-55% < DD <= -60% 79 23.3 Months 4.30%
 
DD <= -60% 66.56%
 
-60% < DD <= -65% 302 6.1 Months 16.42%
 
DD <= -65% 82.98%
 
-65% < DD <= -70% 161 11.4 Months 8.75%
 
DD <= -70% 91.73%
 
-70% < DD <= -100% 152 12.1 Months 8.27%
 
DD <= -100% 100.00%
 

Rolling Returns

( more details)

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

GOLD PORTFOLIO
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 March 1994 - 29 February 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 29 February 2024 (~153 years)
Inflation Adjusted:
Swipe left to see all data
Rolling
Period
Worst Period
15th Percentile
50th Percentile
85th Percentile
Best Period
Latest Negative
Periods
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
1Y -28.33 01/2013
12/2013
0.71$ -8.65 0.91$ 4.46 1.04$ 23.69 1.23$ 54.21 06/2005
05/2006
1.54$ 11.50 38.68%
2Y -17.83 12/2012
11/2014
0.67$ -7.75 0.85$ 5.88 1.12$ 19.60 1.43$ 37.94 09/2009
08/2011
1.90$ 3.02 33.83%
3Y -15.02 12/2012
11/2015
0.61$ -6.98 0.80$ 6.13 1.19$ 18.65 1.67$ 32.87 11/2008
10/2011
2.34$ 5.37 33.23%
5Y -8.25 04/1996
03/2001
0.65$ -5.33 0.76$ 6.81 1.39$ 18.76 2.36$ 23.37 11/2005
10/2010
2.85$ 8.83 30.56%
7Y -6.20 09/2011
08/2018
0.63$ -2.16 0.85$ 5.51 1.45$ 18.16 3.21$ 23.33 09/2004
08/2011
4.33$ 6.83 23.10%
10Y -1.05 10/2012
09/2022
0.89$ 1.22 1.12$ 6.26 1.83$ 15.29 4.15$ 20.54 09/2001
08/2011
6.47$ 4.02 3.32%
15Y 3.86 03/2008
02/2023
1.76$ 6.28 2.49$ 8.84 3.56$ 10.48 4.45$ 12.12 12/1997
11/2012
5.56$ 4.88 0.00%
20Y 4.91 01/1996
12/2015
2.60$ 5.56 2.95$ 7.56 4.29$ 9.33 5.95$ 9.95 08/2000
07/2020
6.66$ 8.11 0.00%
30Y 5.46 03/1994
02/2024
4.93$ 5.46 4.93$ 5.46 4.93$ 5.46 4.93$ 5.46 03/1994
02/2024
4.93$ 5.46 0.00%
Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods
Swipe left to see all data
Rolling
Period
Worst Period
15th Percentile
50th Percentile
85th Percentile
Best Period
Latest Negative
Periods
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
1Y -29.40 01/2013
12/2013
0.70$ -11.60 0.88$ 2.03 1.02$ 21.44 1.21$ 48.31 06/2005
05/2006
1.48$ 8.56 45.56%
2Y -18.90 10/2012
09/2014
0.65$ -10.43 0.80$ 3.11 1.06$ 17.13 1.37$ 35.71 11/2008
10/2010
1.84$ -1.25 43.03%
3Y -15.83 12/2012
11/2015
0.59$ -8.93 0.75$ 3.09 1.09$ 15.70 1.54$ 30.94 11/2008
10/2011
2.24$ -0.14 42.46%
5Y -10.50 04/1996
03/2001
0.57$ -7.09 0.69$ 4.09 1.22$ 15.84 2.08$ 21.04 11/2005
10/2010
2.59$ 4.55 34.22%
7Y -8.11 04/1994
03/2001
0.55$ -3.85 0.75$ 3.11 1.23$ 15.19 2.69$ 20.23 09/2004
08/2011
3.63$ 3.25 28.88%
10Y -3.48 10/2012
09/2022
0.70$ -1.16 0.88$ 4.06 1.48$ 12.61 3.27$ 17.65 09/2001
08/2011
5.07$ 1.21 20.33%
15Y 1.47 03/2008
02/2023
1.24$ 3.82 1.75$ 6.62 2.61$ 8.05 3.19$ 9.48 12/1997
11/2012
3.89$ 2.29 0.00%
20Y 2.65 01/1996
12/2015
1.68$ 3.34 1.92$ 5.18 2.74$ 6.93 3.81$ 7.75 08/2000
07/2020
4.45$ 5.41 0.00%
30Y 2.87 03/1994
02/2024
2.33$ 2.87 2.33$ 2.87 2.33$ 2.87 2.33$ 2.87 03/1994
02/2024
2.33$ 2.87 0.00%
Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods
Swipe left to see all data
Rolling
Period
Worst Period
15th Percentile
50th Percentile
85th Percentile
Best Period
Latest Negative
Periods
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
1Y -37.71 04/1981
03/1982
0.62$ -2.75 0.97$ 0.00 1.00$ 11.50 1.11$ 179.42 02/1979
01/1980
2.79$ 11.50 27.20%
2Y -30.30 07/1980
06/1982
0.48$ -2.32 0.95$ 0.00 1.00$ 9.76 1.20$ 92.76 02/1978
01/1980
3.71$ 3.02 26.83%
3Y -15.32 11/1980
10/1983
0.60$ -1.61 0.95$ 0.00 1.00$ 10.55 1.35$ 70.26 02/1977
01/1980
4.93$ 5.37 23.85%
5Y -14.69 03/1980
02/1985
0.45$ -1.66 0.91$ 0.00 1.00$ 11.11 1.69$ 39.62 01/1970
12/1974
5.30$ 8.83 23.72%
7Y -6.75 02/1980
01/1987
0.61$ -1.32 0.91$ 0.00 1.00$ 7.81 1.69$ 38.74 02/1973
01/1980
9.89$ 6.83 22.11%
10Y -5.99 07/1980
06/1990
0.53$ -0.76 0.92$ 0.00 1.00$ 9.08 2.38$ 34.02 02/1970
01/1980
18.69$ 4.02 21.99%
15Y -3.63 02/1980
01/1995
0.57$ -0.50 0.92$ 0.05 1.00$ 9.18 3.73$ 21.61 10/1965
09/1980
18.80$ 4.88 21.28%
20Y -4.36 10/1980
09/2000
0.41$ 0.00 0.99$ 0.79 1.16$ 8.14 4.78$ 15.64 10/1960
09/1980
18.29$ 8.11 15.70%
30Y -0.43 02/1875
01/1905
0.87$ 0.00 1.00$ 1.89 1.75$ 7.27 8.21$ 9.81 10/1950
09/1980
16.58$ 5.46 6.56%
Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods
Swipe left to see all data
Rolling
Period
Worst Period
15th Percentile
50th Percentile
85th Percentile
Best Period
Latest Negative
Periods
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
1Y -42.05 10/1980
09/1981
0.57$ -9.09 0.90$ -0.93 0.99$ 11.36 1.11$ 145.39 02/1979
01/1980
2.45$ 8.56 54.08%
2Y -35.72 07/1980
06/1982
0.41$ -7.13 0.86$ -1.00 0.98$ 9.57 1.20$ 75.99 04/1972
03/1974
3.09$ -1.25 57.52%
3Y -20.23 10/1980
09/1983
0.50$ -5.81 0.83$ -0.86 0.97$ 8.27 1.26$ 55.18 04/1971
03/1974
3.73$ -0.14 58.46%
5Y -19.61 03/1980
02/1985
0.33$ -4.65 0.78$ -1.01 0.95$ 7.88 1.46$ 30.97 01/1970
12/1974
3.85$ 4.55 58.57%
7Y -11.37 02/1980
01/1987
0.42$ -4.44 0.72$ -1.11 0.92$ 8.57 1.77$ 27.30 02/1973
01/1980
5.41$ 3.25 56.70%
10Y -10.17 07/1980
06/1990
0.34$ -4.35 0.64$ -1.01 0.90$ 7.52 2.06$ 24.69 02/1970
01/1980
9.08$ 1.21 54.39%
15Y -7.76 02/1980
01/1995
0.29$ -3.75 0.56$ -0.07 0.98$ 6.11 2.43$ 14.26 02/1965
01/1980
7.38$ 2.29 50.45%
20Y -7.77 10/1980
09/2000
0.19$ -3.30 0.51$ 0.72 1.15$ 4.95 2.62$ 10.01 02/1960
01/1980
6.74$ 5.41 46.03%
30Y -3.39 07/1896
06/1926
0.35$ -2.53 0.46$ 0.32 1.09$ 2.70 2.22$ 5.44 02/1950
01/1980
4.89$ 2.87 33.27%
Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods

If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Gold Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.

Seasonality

In which months is it better to invest in Gold Portfolio?

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.
For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Gain Frequency
0.79
40%
-1.14
40%
1.25
40%
1.79
60%
1.48
60%
-0.04
40%
2.61
80%
0.66
20%
-3.69
0%
1.82
60%
0.34
40%
3.64
100%
Best 5.8
2023
6.1
2022
7.9
2023
7.3
2020
7.7
2021
8.0
2019
10.8
2020
7.9
2019
-2.9
2022
7.4
2023
8.5
2022
7.0
2020
Worst -3.2
2021
-6.3
2021
-1.6
2019
-2.1
2022
-3.3
2022
-7.1
2021
-2.6
2022
-2.9
2022
-4.8
2023
-1.8
2022
-5.4
2020
1.3
2023
Monthly Seasonality over the period Feb 1871 - Feb 2024
Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Gain Frequency
2.96
70%
-0.02
40%
0.03
30%
1.52
60%
-0.25
40%
0.78
40%
0.48
60%
0.62
40%
-2.98
10%
0.68
50%
-1.32
40%
2.42
80%
Best 8.7
2015
10.9
2016
7.9
2023
7.3
2020
7.7
2021
9.0
2016
10.8
2020
7.9
2019
0.7
2016
7.4
2023
8.5
2022
7.0
2020
Worst -3.2
2021
-6.3
2021
-3.1
2014
-2.1
2022
-6.1
2016
-7.1
2021
-6.6
2015
-3.3
2016
-6.2
2014
-3.1
2014
-8.4
2016
-1.9
2016
Monthly Seasonality over the period Feb 1871 - Feb 2024
Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Gain Frequency
1.00
69%
0.39
84%
-0.10
80%
0.31
83%
0.36
81%
-0.06
80%
0.22
84%
0.26
84%
0.44
83%
0.05
80%
0.26
84%
0.47
84%
Best 56.4
1933
28.8
1973
14.4
1985
12.9
1982
26.5
1973
22.0
1980
10.8
2020
20.0
1982
26.1
1979
11.7
1978
12.8
2009
23.2
1979
Worst -14.1
1981
-18.2
1983
-22.4
1980
-8.3
2004
-10.0
1982
-11.1
1981
-9.1
1976
-10.5
1973
-11.6
1975
-16.1
2008
-20.3
1978
-10.7
2011
Monthly Seasonality over the period Feb 1871 - Feb 2024

Monthly Returns

This section provides a visual/tabular representation of the performance variability in the Gold Portfolio over time. It illustrates the distribution of monthly returns, showcasing the range and frequency of positive and negative returns.

GOLD PORTFOLIO
Monthly Returns Distribution
Data Source: 1 March 1994 - 29 February 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 29 February 2024 (~153 years)
182 Positive Months (51%) - 178 Negative Months (49%)
1496 Positive Months (81%) - 342 Negative Months (19%)
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(Scroll down to see all data)
Investment Returns, up to December 2004, have been derived using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.
You can find additional information on extended Data Sources here.

In particular, the series derived from equivalent datasets are:
  • GLD - SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), up to December 2004

Portfolio efficiency

The following portfolios granted a higher return over 30 Years and a less severe drawdown at the same time.

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30 Years Stats (%)
% Allocation
Portfolio Author Return Dev.Std Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm
Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Momentum +9.77 9.60 -32.52 60 40 0
Stocks/Bonds 80/20 +9.29 12.51 -41.09 80 20 0
Simple Path to Wealth JL Collins +9.04 11.77 -38.53 75 25 0
Shield Strategy Aim Ways +8.74 8.84 -19.36 42 38 20
Stocks/Bonds 60/40 +8.22 9.62 -30.55 60 40 0
Talmud Portfolio Roger Gibson +8.20 10.85 -40.17 66.7 33.3 0
Late Sixties and Beyond Burton Malkiel +8.20 11.68 -41.80 71 29 0
Weird Portfolio Value Stock Geek +8.09 10.84 -32.97 60 20 20
Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Momentum +8.06 7.02 -21.11 40 60 0
Couch Potato Scott Burns +8.04 8.75 -27.04 50 50 0
Seven Value Scott Burns +8.03 11.31 -41.22 71.5 28.5 0
Edge Select Moderately Aggressive Merrill Lynch +7.90 11.14 -38.23 69 31 0
Yale Endowment David Swensen +7.80 10.83 -40.68 70 30 0
Jane Bryant Quinn Portfolio Jane Bryant Quinn +7.79 10.79 -39.55 70 30 0
Lazy Portfolio David Swensen +7.78 10.88 -40.89 70 30 0
Sheltered Sam 70/30 Bill Bernstein +7.76 10.70 -39.73 67.9 30 2.1
Six Ways from Sunday Scott Burns +7.76 10.91 -39.14 66.7 33.3 0
Gold Pivot Ptf Aim Ways +7.76 8.20 -19.49 22 44 34
In Saecula Saeculorum Fulvio Marchese +7.72 7.83 -20.39 45 45 10
Golden Butterfly Tyler +7.56 7.73 -17.79 40 40 20
Family Taxable Portfolio Ted Aronson +7.56 11.63 -38.46 70 30 0
Coffeehouse Bill Schultheis +7.50 9.72 -33.93 60 40 0
No Brainer Portfolio Bill Bernstein +7.48 11.75 -40.40 75 25 0
Aim comfortable trip Aim Ways +7.42 7.59 -20.15 40 45 15
Tilt Toward Value Time Inc +7.38 9.44 -34.63 60 40 0
All Weather Portfolio Ray Dalio +7.34 7.40 -20.58 30 55 15
Sheltered Sam 60/40 Bill Bernstein +7.28 9.24 -34.12 58.2 40 1.8
Edge Select Moderate Merrill Lynch +7.27 8.96 -29.58 53 47 0
Marc Faber Portfolio Marc Faber +7.25 9.66 -28.82 50 25 25
Five Fold Scott Burns +7.25 9.75 -37.94 60 40 0
Pinwheel +7.20 10.50 -36.89 65 25 10
Margaritaville Scott Burns +7.20 10.82 -38.70 67 33 0
Robo Advisor 50 Betterment +7.19 9.28 -30.72 49.9 50.1 0
Simple and Cheap Time Inc +7.16 9.42 -34.84 60 40 0
Nano Portfolio John Wasik +7.14 9.67 -36.66 60 40 0
Gretchen Tai Portfolio Gretchen Tai +7.11 11.65 -41.80 70 30 0
LifeStrategy Moderate Growth Vanguard +7.06 9.53 -33.52 60 40 0
Simple Money Portfolio Tim Maurer +7.04 9.11 -32.39 60 40 0
Sandwich Portfolio Bob Clyatt +7.03 8.32 -28.96 55 45 0
Stocks/Bonds 40/60 +7.00 6.99 -19.17 40 60 0
PISI Portfolio Davide Pisicchio +7.00 6.48 -18.36 30 60 10
One-Decision Portfolio Marvin Appel +6.99 8.42 -31.96 50 50 0
Coward's Portfolio Bill Bernstein +6.99 9.11 -32.68 60 40 0
Dynamic 60/40 Income +6.98 9.36 -41.44 60 40 0
Dynamic 40/60 Income +6.97 8.12 -29.84 40 60 0
Global Market Portfolio Credit Suisse +6.89 8.28 -25.90 45 55 0
Big Rocks Portfolio Larry Swedroe +6.88 9.17 -33.80 60 40 0
Simplified Permanent Portfolio +6.85 6.88 -16.43 25 50 25
Ultimate Buy&Hold FundAdvice +6.84 9.28 -34.23 60 40 0
GAA Global Asset Allocation Mebane Faber +6.82 8.05 -24.91 40.5 49.5 10
Sheltered Sam 50/50 Bill Bernstein +6.77 7.82 -28.23 48.5 50 1.5
Ideal Index Frank Armstrong +6.70 10.68 -40.11 70 30 0
Four Square Scott Burns +6.69 8.44 -29.95 50 50 0
7Twelve Portfolio Craig Israelsen +6.63 9.77 -37.96 50 33.3 16.7
Ulcer Free Strategy Aim Ways +6.61 5.50 -17.05 7 82 11
Desert Portfolio Gyroscopic Investing +6.60 5.50 -14.72 30 60 10
Edge Select Moderately Conservative Merrill Lynch +6.56 6.85 -20.48 37 63 0
Rob Arnott Portfolio Rob Arnott +6.50 7.22 -24.27 30 60 10
High Yield Bonds Income +6.50 8.82 -23.97 0 100 0
Andrew Tobias Portfolio Andrew Tobias +6.49 9.95 -36.42 66.7 33.3 0
Permanent Portfolio Harry Browne +6.47 6.59 -15.92 25 50 25
Lifepath Fund iShares +6.44 7.01 -21.23 40.4 59.6 0
All Country World 60/40 +6.36 10.07 -36.70 60 40 0
LifeStrategy Conservative Growth Vanguard +6.29 6.89 -21.90 40 60 0
Sheltered Sam 40/60 Bill Bernstein +6.24 6.46 -22.05 38.8 60 1.2
Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Momentum +6.20 4.95 -17.91 20 80 0
All Country World 40/60 +6.10 7.62 -25.16 40 60 0
Paul Boyer Portfolio Paul Boyer +6.03 7.47 -18.04 25 50 25
Larry Portfolio Larry Swedroe +5.83 5.55 -15.96 30 70 0
All Country World 20/80 +5.70 5.63 -17.97 20 80 0
Sheltered Sam 30/70 Bill Bernstein +5.68 5.20 -16.58 29.1 70 0.9
Stocks/Bonds 20/80 +5.66 4.92 -16.57 20 80 0
Gold +5.46 15.44 -42.91 0 0 100

Here's a list containing the Best Classic Portfolios, with the highest returns over 30 Years and Very High Risk categorization.

Swipe left to see all data
30 Years Stats (%)
% Allocation
Portfolio Author Return Dev.Std Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm
Technology +13.98 24.02 -81.08 100 0 0
US Stocks Momentum +12.68 15.38 -53.85 100 0 0
US Stocks Quality +11.77 15.08 -46.25 100 0 0
Stocks/Bonds 80/20 Momentum +11.32 12.42 -43.61 80 20 0
US Stocks +10.22 15.55 -50.84 100 0 0
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