Ben Stein Long Term Portfolio vs Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio Portfolio Comparison

Simulation Settings

Period: January 1976 - May 2025 (~49 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 31 May 2025

Initial Amount: 1$

Rebalancing: at every Jan 1^st

Currency: USD

Inflation: US

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Results

30 Years
(1995/06 - 2025/05)

All Data
(1976/01 - 2025/05)

Inflation Adjusted:

Ben Stein Long Term Portfolio

1.00$
Invested Capital
June 1995
9.27$
Final Capital
May 2025
7.71%
Yearly Return
12.46%
Std Deviation
-45.92%
Max Drawdown
42months
Recovery Period

1.00$
Invested Capital
June 1995
4.40$
Final Capital
May 2025
5.06%
Yearly Return
12.46%
Std Deviation
-46.81%
Max Drawdown
66months
Recovery Period

1.00$
Invested Capital
January 1976
121.23$
Final Capital
May 2025
10.20%
Yearly Return
12.12%
Std Deviation
-45.92%
Max Drawdown
42months
Recovery Period

1.00$
Invested Capital
January 1976
21.02$
Final Capital
May 2025
6.36%
Yearly Return
12.12%
Std Deviation
-46.81%
Max Drawdown
66months
Recovery Period

Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio

1.00$
Invested Capital
June 1995
9.05$
Final Capital
May 2025
7.62%
Yearly Return
11.82%
Std Deviation
-40.40%
Max Drawdown
40months
Recovery Period

1.00$
Invested Capital
June 1995
4.29$
Final Capital
May 2025
4.98%
Yearly Return
11.82%
Std Deviation
-41.38%
Max Drawdown
63months
Recovery Period

1.00$
Invested Capital
January 1976
115.20$
Final Capital
May 2025
10.08%
Yearly Return
11.75%
Std Deviation
-40.40%
Max Drawdown
40months
Recovery Period

1.00$
Invested Capital
January 1976
19.97$
Final Capital
May 2025
6.25%
Yearly Return
11.75%
Std Deviation
-41.38%
Max Drawdown
63months
Recovery Period

As of May 2025, in the previous 30 Years, the Ben Stein Long Term Portfolio obtained a 7.71% compound annual return, with a 12.46% standard deviation. It suffered a maximum drawdown of -45.92% that required 42 months to be recovered.

As of May 2025, in the previous 30 Years, the Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio obtained a 7.62% compound annual return, with a 11.82% standard deviation. It suffered a maximum drawdown of -40.40% that required 40 months to be recovered.

Disclaimer: The simulations on this website are provided in good faith but should NOT be taken as investment advice. We are not liable for any errors or actions based on this information. The authors of the website are not affiliated with the portfolio creators, who are the sole owners of their intellectual property. The translation of asset allocations into ETFs is based on the interpretation of LazyPortfolioETF.com and may not exactly reflect the original intent of the portfolio creators. Content is for informational, educational, illustrative, and entertainment purposes only.

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Asset Allocations and ETFs

The compared portfolios have the following asset allocations.

Ben Stein Long Term Portfolio

Weight (%)	Ticker	Name
30.00	VTI	Vanguard Total Stock Market
20.00	EFA	iShares MSCI EAFE
10.00	EEM	iShares MSCI Emerging Markets
10.00	IJS	iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value
10.00	VNQ	Vanguard Real Estate
20.00	BIL	SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill

Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio

Weight (%)	Ticker	Name
25.00	IJR	iShares Core S&P Small-Cap
25.00	VEU	Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US
25.00	VV	Vanguard Large-Cap
25.00	SHY	iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond

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Portfolio Returns as of May 31, 2025

Returns are calculated in USD, assuming:

no fees or capital gain taxes.
rebalancing: at every Jan 1^st.
dividend reinvestment, when applicable.

Return Comparison

Capital Growth

30 Years
(1995/06 - 2025/05)

All Data
(1976/01 - 2025/05)

Inflation Adjusted:

Swipe left to see all data

	Initial Amount $	Final Amount $	Total Return (%)	Annualized (%)
Long Term Portfolio Ben Stein	1 $	9.27 $	827.10%	7.71%
No Brainer Portfolio Bill Bernstein	1 $	9.05 $	805.15%	7.62%
	Jun 1995	May 2025

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	Initial Amount $	Final Amount $	Total Return (%)	Annualized (%)
Long Term Portfolio Ben Stein	1 $	4.40 $	339.75%	5.06%
No Brainer Portfolio Bill Bernstein	1 $	4.29 $	329.34%	4.98%
	Jun 1995	May 2025

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	Initial Amount $	Final Amount $	Total Return (%)	Annualized (%)
Long Term Portfolio Ben Stein	1 $	121.23 $	12 022.92%	10.20%
No Brainer Portfolio Bill Bernstein	1 $	115.20 $	11 420.03%	10.08%
	Jan 1976	May 2025

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	Initial Amount $	Final Amount $	Total Return (%)	Annualized (%)
Long Term Portfolio Ben Stein	1 $	21.02 $	2 002.00%	6.36%
No Brainer Portfolio Bill Bernstein	1 $	19.97 $	1 897.47%	6.25%
	Jan 1976	May 2025

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		Return (%) as of May 31, 2025
		YTD (5M)	1M	6M	1Y	5Y	10Y	30Y	MAX (~49Y)
	Long Term Portfolio Ben Stein	3.81	3.82	0.50	9.79	10.24	7.07	7.71	10.20
	No Brainer Portfolio Bill Bernstein	2.24	3.94	-1.17	8.05	9.87	7.13	7.62	10.08
Returns over 1 year are annualized.

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Portfolio Metrics as of May 31, 2025

The following metrics, updated as of 31 May 2025, provide an overview of performance and risk, with the best value in each row highlighted within the table.

METRIC COMPARISON

Period: 1 June 2024 - 31 May 2025 (1 year)

Period: 1 June 2020 - 31 May 2025 (5 years)

Period: 1 June 2015 - 31 May 2025 (10 years)

Period: 1 June 1995 - 31 May 2025 (30 years)

Period: 1 January 1976 - 31 May 2025 (~49 years)

1 Year

5 Years

10 Years

30 Years

All (1976/01 - 2025/05)

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	Long Term Portfolio	No Brainer Portfolio
Author	Ben Stein	Bill Bernstein
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks	80%	75%
Fixed Income	20%	25%
Commodities	0%	0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%)	9.79	8.05
Infl. Adjusted (%)	7.24	5.54
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%)	-3.19	-4.91
Start to Recovery (months)	6	6*
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)	-3.19	-4.91
Start to Recovery (months)	6	6*
Longest Negative Period (months)	8	9
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%)	7.84	8.80
Sharpe Ratio	0.65	0.38
Sortino Ratio	0.85	0.53
Ulcer Index	1.64	2.30
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation	1.25	0.91
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown	3.07	1.64
Metrics calculated over the period 1 June 2024 - 31 May 2025

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	Long Term Portfolio	No Brainer Portfolio
Author	Ben Stein	Bill Bernstein
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks	80%	75%
Fixed Income	20%	25%
Commodities	0%	0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%)	10.24	9.87
Infl. Adjusted (%)	5.37	5.02
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%)	-20.52	-19.76
Start to Recovery (months)	26	26
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)	-20.52	-19.76
Start to Recovery (months)	26	26
Longest Negative Period (months)	32	32
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%)	12.43	12.23
Sharpe Ratio	0.61	0.59
Sortino Ratio	0.85	0.83
Ulcer Index	6.73	6.62
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation	0.82	0.81
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown	0.50	0.50
Metrics calculated over the period 1 June 2020 - 31 May 2025

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	Long Term Portfolio	No Brainer Portfolio
Author	Ben Stein	Bill Bernstein
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks	80%	75%
Fixed Income	20%	25%
Commodities	0%	0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%)	7.07	7.13
Infl. Adjusted (%)	3.88	3.94
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%)	-20.52	-19.76
Start to Recovery (months)	26	26
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)	-20.52	-19.76
Start to Recovery (months)	26	26
Longest Negative Period (months)	34	33
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%)	12.10	11.87
Sharpe Ratio	0.44	0.45
Sortino Ratio	0.58	0.60
Ulcer Index	5.94	5.80
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation	0.58	0.60
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown	0.34	0.36
Metrics calculated over the period 1 June 2015 - 31 May 2025

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	Long Term Portfolio	No Brainer Portfolio
Author	Ben Stein	Bill Bernstein
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks	80%	75%
Fixed Income	20%	25%
Commodities	0%	0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%)	7.71	7.62
Infl. Adjusted (%)	5.06	4.98
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%)	-45.92	-40.40
Start to Recovery (months)	42	40
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)	-45.92	-24.46
Start to Recovery (months)	42	45
Longest Negative Period (months)	110	110
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%)	12.46	11.82
Sharpe Ratio	0.44	0.45
Sortino Ratio	0.57	0.59
Ulcer Index	9.47	8.72
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation	0.62	0.64
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown	0.17	0.19
Metrics calculated over the period 1 June 1995 - 31 May 2025

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	Long Term Portfolio	No Brainer Portfolio
Author	Ben Stein	Bill Bernstein
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks	80%	75%
Fixed Income	20%	25%
Commodities	0%	0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%)	10.20	10.08
Infl. Adjusted (%)	6.36	6.25
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%)	-45.92	-40.40
Start to Recovery (months)	42	40
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)	-45.92	-24.46
Start to Recovery (months)	42	45
Longest Negative Period (months)	110	110
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%)	12.12	11.75
Sharpe Ratio	0.49	0.50
Sortino Ratio	0.64	0.66
Ulcer Index	7.83	7.26
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation	0.84	0.86
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown	0.22	0.25
Metrics calculated over the period 1 January 1976 - 31 May 2025

Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

DRAWDOWN COMPARISON

Period: 1 June 1995 - 31 May 2025 (30 years)

Period: 1 January 1976 - 31 May 2025 (~49 years)

30 Years
(1995/06 - 2025/05)

Chart Table

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Long Term Portfolio			No Brainer Portfolio
Drawdown (%)	Recovery (#Months)	From To	Drawdown (%)	Recovery (#Months)	From To
-45.92	42	Nov 2007 Apr 2011
			-40.40	40	Nov 2007 Feb 2011
			-24.46	45	Apr 2000 Dec 2003
-23.11	39	Sep 2000 Nov 2003
-20.52	26	Jan 2022 Feb 2024
			-19.76	26	Jan 2022 Feb 2024
-19.33	11	Jan 2020 Nov 2020
			-18.24	8	Jan 2020 Aug 2020
-16.94	19	May 2011 Nov 2012
			-16.20	17	May 2011 Sep 2012
-15.80	11	May 1998 Mar 1999
			-13.95	8	May 1998 Dec 1998
			-11.92	14	Sep 2018 Oct 2019
-10.70	8	Sep 2018 Apr 2019
-9.84	14	Jun 2015 Jul 2016

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Long Term Portfolio			No Brainer Portfolio
Drawdown (%)	Recovery (#Months)	From To	Drawdown (%)	Recovery (#Months)	From To
-45.92	42	Nov 2007 Apr 2011
			-40.40	40	Nov 2007 Feb 2011
			-24.46	45	Apr 2000 Dec 2003
-23.11	39	Sep 2000 Nov 2003
-20.52	26	Jan 2022 Feb 2024
-20.11	17	Sep 1987 Jan 1989
			-19.76	26	Jan 2022 Feb 2024
			-19.71	17	Sep 1987 Jan 1989
-19.33	11	Jan 2020 Nov 2020
			-18.24	8	Jan 2020 Aug 2020
-16.94	19	May 2011 Nov 2012
			-16.20	17	May 2011 Sep 2012
-15.80	11	May 1998 Mar 1999
-15.40	14	Jan 1990 Feb 1991
			-14.76	14	Jan 1990 Feb 1991

Rolling Returns

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the Simulation Settings.

You can explore the Rolling Returns for a single portfolio, or check the return differential, by switching on "Head To Head" toggle.

Rolling Returns Comparison

Annualized Rolling Returns Chart

Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted

Time Period: 1 January 1976 - 31 May 2025 (~49 years)

Rolling Period:

Long Term Portfolio
No Brainer Portfolio

Head To Head (Ptf 1 vs Ptf 2):

US Inflation Adjusted:

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Yearly Returns

For each year, the following table provides the return and intra-year drawdown. The highlighted returns represent the highest values for that specific year.

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	Long Term Portfolio		No Brainer Portfolio
Year	Return (%)	Drawdown (%)	Return (%)	Drawdown (%)
2025	3.81	-2.48	2.24	-3.94
2024	10.74	-3.34	10.84	-3.33
2023	16.02	-8.92	15.77	-8.55
2022	-14.26	-20.52	-13.89	-19.76
2021	16.72	-3.20	15.39	-2.73
2020	9.40	-19.33	11.61	-18.24
2019	21.13	-4.75	19.82	-5.15
2018	-7.39	-10.70	-6.41	-11.92
2017	16.88	0.00	15.70	-0.29
2016	9.22	-4.80	11.03	-4.44
2015	-2.18	-8.57	-1.35	-7.81
2014	5.91	-3.45	3.78	-3.16
2013	18.10	-2.66	22.10	-1.89
2012	14.19	-7.09	12.91	-6.94
2011	-3.35	-16.94	-2.59	-16.20
2010	13.80	-10.43	14.15	-9.69
2009	26.25	-17.28	22.80	-15.37
2008	-30.51	-33.62	-26.26	-28.63
2007	5.66	-5.92	7.14	-4.50
2006	19.42	-3.62	15.27	-3.41
2005	10.21	-3.30	7.66	-4.07
2004	15.66	-4.29	13.66	-3.04
2003	30.79	-3.98	27.39	-4.14
2002	-10.67	-17.62	-10.88	-16.92
2001	-4.80	-15.85	-4.49	-14.84
2000	-2.79	-8.99	-4.63	-10.08
1999	21.76	-2.43	18.99	-3.58
1998	7.54	-15.80	12.24	-13.95
1997	13.81	-4.54	15.88	-4.06
1996	15.37	-3.55	12.52	-4.66
1995	16.95	-1.90	20.57	-1.62
1994	-0.18	-6.15	2.49	-4.18
1993	23.87	-3.66	16.21	-3.68
1992	3.67	-3.34	4.40	-3.33
1991	31.77	-4.13	24.11	-4.26
1990	-8.84	-15.40	-9.08	-14.76
1989	25.31	-2.86	18.78	-2.53
1988	19.53	-2.49	17.83	-3.06
1987	2.59	-20.11	8.39	-19.71
1986	22.75	-4.06	25.39	-4.13
1985	30.54	-2.54	32.35	-2.40
1984	8.43	-3.82	4.70	-6.54
1983	22.02	-2.01	21.16	-2.72
1982	10.55	-11.34	17.74	-8.02
1981	1.38	-8.32	2.36	-9.62
1980	22.39	-9.78	24.96	-10.53
1979	19.59	-7.08	19.11	-7.00
1978	14.86	-7.96	14.56	-9.37
1977	8.12	-1.77	6.69	-2.39
1976	20.36	-2.40	19.98	-3.10

Table of contents

Resources & Extras

Asset Allocations and ETFs

Portfolio Returns as of May 31, 2025

Portfolio Metrics as of May 31, 2025

Drawdowns

Rolling Returns

Yearly Returns