Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns

Data Source: from January 1970 to February 2024 (~54 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 29 February 2024
Live Update: Mar 01 2024
PORTFOLIO • LIVE PERFORMANCE (USD currency)
0.69%
1 Day
Mar 01 2024
0.69%
Current Month
March 2024

The Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio is a High Risk portfolio and can be implemented with 4 ETFs.

It's exposed for 75% on the Stock Market.

In the last 30 Years, the Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio obtained a 7.48% compound annual return, with a 11.75% standard deviation.

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Asset Allocation and ETFs

The Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio has the following asset allocation:

75% Stocks
25% Fixed Income
0% Commodities

The Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio can be implemented with the following ETFs:

Weight (%) Ticker Currency ETF Name Investment Themes
25.00
IJR
USD iShares Core S&P Small-Cap Equity, U.S., Small Cap
25.00
VEU
USD Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Equity, Global ex-US, Large Cap
25.00
VV
USD Vanguard Large-Cap Equity, U.S., Large Cap
25.00
SHY
USD iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond Bond, U.S., Short Term

Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

Portfolio and ETF Returns as of Feb 29, 2024

The Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.

Returns are calculated in USD, assuming: March 2024 return is calculated on the hypothesis of a newly built portfolio, with the starting asset allocation.
BILL BERNSTEIN NO BRAINER PORTFOLIO
Consolidated returns as of 29 February 2024
Live Update: Mar 01 2024
Swipe left to see all data
  Chg (%) Return (%) Return (%) as of Feb 29, 2024
  1 Day Time ET(*) Mar 2024 1M 6M 1Y 5Y 10Y 30Y MAX
(~54Y)
Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio 0.69 0.69 2.81 7.97 13.50 7.50 6.76 7.48 9.50
US Inflation Adjusted return 2.81 6.75 10.50 3.27 3.87 4.84 5.33
Components
IJR
USD iShares Core S&P Small-Cap 0.51 Mar 01 2024 0.51 3.22 7.33 6.39 7.65 8.48 9.83 11.42
VEU
USD Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US 1.14 Mar 01 2024 1.14 3.17 7.74 13.10 5.87 4.30 4.79 8.12
VV
USD Vanguard Large-Cap 0.91 Mar 01 2024 0.91 5.24 14.22 31.09 14.61 12.53 10.42 10.64
SHY
USD iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond 0.20 Mar 01 2024 0.20 -0.39 2.35 4.12 1.03 0.87 3.03 5.58
Returns over 1 year are annualized | Available data source: since Jan 1970
(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)
US Inflation is updated to Jan 2024. Pending updates, the monthly inflation is set at 0% for the subsequent periods. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 2.71% , 5Y: 4.10% , 10Y: 2.77% , 30Y: 2.52%

In 2023, the Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio granted a 2.53% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.

Capital Growth as of Feb 29, 2024

An investment of 1$, since March 1994, now would be worth 8.71$, with a total return of 770.61% (7.48% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 4.12$, with a net total return of 312.42% (4.84% annualized).
An investment of 1$, since January 1970, now would be worth 136.62$, with a total return of 13562.24% (9.50% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 16.63$, with a net total return of 1563.19% (5.33% annualized).

Portfolio Metrics as of Feb 29, 2024

Metrics of Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio, updated as of 29 February 2024.

Metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:
BILL BERNSTEIN NO BRAINER PORTFOLIO
Advanced Metrics
Data Source: 1 January 1970 - 29 February 2024 (~54 years)
Swipe left to see all data
Metrics as of Feb 29, 2024
1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
(~54Y)
Investment Return (%) 2.81 7.77 7.97 13.50 3.86 7.50 6.76 7.07 7.48 9.50
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) details 2.81 7.20 6.75 10.50 -1.57 3.27 3.87 4.40 4.84 5.33
US Inflation (%) 0.00 0.54 1.14 2.71 5.52 4.10 2.77 2.56 2.52 3.96
Pending updates, the monthly inflation after Jan 2024 is set at 0%. Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized.
DRAWDOWN
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -8.54 -19.76 -19.76 -19.76 -40.40 -40.40 -40.40
Start to Recovery (# months) details 5 26 26 26 40 40 40
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 08 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2007 11 2007 11 2007 11
Start to Bottom (# months) 3 9 9 9 16 16 16
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2009 02 2009 02 2009 02
Bottom to End (# months) 2 17 17 17 24 24 24
End (yyyy mm) 2023 12 2024 02 2024 02 2024 02 2011 02 2011 02 2011 02
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest
-24.46 -24.46
Start to Recovery (# months) details 45 45
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 08 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2007 11 2000 04 2000 04
Start to Bottom (# months) 3 9 9 9 16 30 30
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2009 02 2002 09 2002 09
Bottom to End (# months) 2 17 17 17 24 15 15
End (yyyy mm) 2023 12 2024 02 2024 02 2024 02 2011 02 2003 12 2003 12
Longest negative period (# months) details 8 32 32 33 61 110 110
Period Start (yyyy mm) 2023 03 2021 03 2021 03 2017 07 2004 03 2000 01 2000 01
Period End (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2020 03 2009 03 2009 02 2009 02
Annualized Return (%) -2.07 -1.00 -1.00 -0.25 -0.61 -0.27 -0.27
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -9.41 -24.88 -24.88 -24.88 -41.38 -41.38 -44.23
Start to Recovery (# months) details 5 30* 30* 30* 63 63 95
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 08 2021 09 2021 09 2021 09 2007 11 2007 11 1973 01
Start to Bottom (# months) 3 13 13 13 16 16 21
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2009 02 2009 02 1974 09
Bottom to End (# months) 2 17 17 17 47 47 74
End (yyyy mm) 2023 12 - - - 2013 01 2013 01 1980 11
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest
Start to Recovery (# months) details
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 08 2021 09 2021 09 2021 09 2007 11 2007 11 1973 01
Start to Bottom (# months) 3 13 13 13 16 16 21
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2009 02 2009 02 1974 09
Bottom to End (# months) 2 17 17 17 47 47 74
End (yyyy mm) 2023 12 - - - 2013 01 2013 01 1980 11
Longest negative period (# months) details 8 36* 48 69 69 139 139
Period Start (yyyy mm) 2023 03 2021 03 2019 11 2018 02 2018 02 1997 08 1997 08
Period End (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2024 02 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2009 02 2009 02
Annualized Return (%) -4.94 -1.57 -0.12 -0.04 -0.04 -0.18 -0.18
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
RISK INDICATORS
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Standard Deviation (%) 11.59 12.88 13.98 11.64 12.04 11.75 12.09
Sharpe Ratio 0.72 0.12 0.41 0.48 0.48 0.44 0.46
Sortino Ratio 1.07 0.16 0.54 0.64 0.63 0.58 0.61
Ulcer Index 3.08 8.35 7.36 5.76 8.82 8.72 7.97
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 1.16 0.30 0.54 0.58 0.59 0.64 0.79
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 1.58 0.20 0.38 0.34 0.18 0.19 0.24
% Positive Months details 58% 55% 61% 64% 63% 63% 63%
Positive Months 7 20 37 77 153 227 411
Negative Months 5 16 23 43 87 133 239
LONG TERM RETURNS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 6.76 11.57 11.57 19.28
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 4.88 1.74 1.74
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 3.87 9.64 9.64 12.27
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 2.81 -0.83 -0.93
ROLLING PERIODS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Over the latest 30Y
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 46.17 20.22 17.42 11.57 8.18 7.48
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -34.04 -9.55 -1.78 1.74 4.80
% Positive Periods 75% 87% 98% 100% 100% 100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 79.38 26.71 16.97 9.56 5.84 6.58
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - - 2.38 4.98
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 42.44 17.40 15.05 9.64 5.80 4.84
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -34.04 -11.48 -4.31 -0.83 2.66
% Positive Periods 70% 82% 90% 98% 100% 100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 79.38 26.71 16.97 9.56 5.84 6.58
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - - 2.38 4.98
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Over all the available data source (Jan 1970 - Feb 2024)
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 54.85 31.90 27.35 19.28 15.24 13.06
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -34.04 -9.55 -1.78 1.74 4.80 7.07
% Positive Periods 79% 90% 99% 100% 100% 100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 79.38 24.75 15.30 8.35 5.79 5.08
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - - 2.38 3.95
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 51.12 28.04 23.47 12.27 10.43 8.14
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -36.63 -12.86 -6.35 -0.93 2.66 4.43
% Positive Periods 72% 83% 89% 97% 100% 100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 79.38 24.75 15.30 8.35 5.79 5.08
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - - 2.38 3.95
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Terms and Definitions
  • Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio.
  • Deepest/Longest Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. The deepest (or maximum) drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained. The longest drawdown is the period observed from a peak to the subsequent peak with the greatest duration.
  • Longest negative period: it's the maximum period for which an overall negative return has been observed.
  • Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean.
  • Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return.
  • Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation).
  • Ulcer Index: it's a measure of downside risk that quantifies the depth and duration of drawdowns in an investment portfolio.
  • Best/Worst 10Y returns: the best and the worst 10-year return over a time frame.
  • Rolling Returns: N-year returns over a time frame, calculated over all the available data source (best, worst, % of positive returns). Each rolling period, longer than the longest negative period, yielded a non-negative minimum return.
  • Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money in any case (money amount withdrawal).
    For instance: Your initial invested capital is 100.000$; withdrawal rate (annualized) is 4%. This means that, in the first month, you will withdraw 100.000 * 4% * 1/12 = 333.33$. The second month, you’ll withdraw 333.33$ plus the inflation monthly rate. You’ll continue adjusting your withdraw monthly for inflation.
  • Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too.

Portfolio Components Correlation

Correlation measures to what degree the returns of the two assets move in relation to each other.

Correlation coefficient is a numerical value between -1 and +1. If one variable goes up by a certain amount, the correlation coefficient indicates which way the other variable moves and by how much.
Asset correlations are calculated based on monthly returns.
COMPONENTS MONTHLY CORRELATIONS
Monthly correlations as of 29 February 2024
Swipe left to see all data
Asset
IJR
VEU
VV
SHY
IJR
-
0.80
0.77
0.07
VEU
0.80
-
0.91
0.35
VV
0.77
0.91
-
0.23
SHY
0.07
0.35
0.23
-
Asset
IJR
VEU
VV
SHY
IJR
-
0.86
0.87
0.00
VEU
0.86
-
0.88
0.21
VV
0.87
0.88
-
0.14
SHY
0.00
0.21
0.14
-
Asset
IJR
VEU
VV
SHY
IJR
-
0.77
0.85
-0.07
VEU
0.77
-
0.86
0.12
VV
0.85
0.86
-
0.04
SHY
-0.07
0.12
0.04
-
Asset
IJR
VEU
VV
SHY
IJR
-
0.76
0.82
-0.18
VEU
0.76
-
0.83
-0.14
VV
0.82
0.83
-
-0.13
SHY
-0.18
-0.14
-0.13
-
Asset
IJR
VEU
VV
SHY
IJR
-
0.70
0.85
0.06
VEU
0.70
-
0.78
0.10
VV
0.85
0.78
-
0.12
SHY
0.06
0.10
0.12
-

If you want to learn more about historical correlations, you can find out here how the main asset class are correlated to each other.

Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

BILL BERNSTEIN NO BRAINER PORTFOLIO
Drawdown periods
Drawdown periods - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 March 1994 - 29 February 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1970 - 29 February 2024 (~54 years)
Inflation Adjusted:
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months Ulcer Index
-40.40% Nov 2007 Feb 2009 16 Feb 2011 24 40 18.40
-24.46% Apr 2000 Sep 2002 30 Dec 2003 15 45 13.30
-19.76% Jan 2022 Sep 2022 9 Feb 2024 17 26 9.75
-18.24% Jan 2020 Mar 2020 3 Aug 2020 5 8 8.70
-16.20% May 2011 Sep 2011 5 Sep 2012 12 17 6.47
-13.95% May 1998 Aug 1998 4 Dec 1998 4 8 6.45
-11.92% Sep 2018 Dec 2018 4 Oct 2019 10 14 4.83
-9.17% Jun 2015 Feb 2016 9 Jul 2016 5 14 4.70
-4.66% Jun 1996 Jul 1996 2 Sep 1996 2 4 2.42
-4.07% Mar 2005 Apr 2005 2 Jul 2005 3 5 1.92
-4.06% Oct 1997 Oct 1997 1 Feb 1998 4 5 2.29
-3.74% Sep 1994 Nov 1994 3 Mar 1995 4 7 2.03
-3.58% Feb 1999 Feb 1999 1 Apr 1999 2 3 1.84
-3.45% Feb 2018 Mar 2018 2 Jul 2018 4 6 2.24
-3.41% May 2006 Jul 2006 3 Oct 2006 3 6 2.17
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown (DD)
Occurrencies (EOM)
Drawdown (DD)
Range #Num Every (Avg) Frequency Cumulative Frequency
All Time High (DD=0%) 123 2.9 Months 34.07%
 
DD = 0% 34.07%
 
0% < DD <= -5% 124 2.9 Months 34.35%
 
DD <= -5% 68.42%
 
-5% < DD <= -10% 48 7.5 Months 13.30%
 
DD <= -10% 81.72%
 
-10% < DD <= -15% 30 12.0 Months 8.31%
 
DD <= -15% 90.03%
 
-15% < DD <= -20% 20 18.1 Months 5.54%
 
DD <= -20% 95.57%
 
-20% < DD <= -25% 7 51.6 Months 1.94%
 
DD <= -25% 97.51%
 
-25% < DD <= -30% 4 90.3 Months 1.11%
 
DD <= -30% 98.61%
 
-30% < DD <= -35% 2 180.5 Months 0.55%
 
DD <= -35% 99.17%
 
-35% < DD <= -40% 2 180.5 Months 0.55%
 
DD <= -40% 99.72%
 
-40% < DD <= -45% 1 361.0 Months 0.28%
 
DD <= -45% 100.00%
 
-45% < DD <= -50% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -50% 100.00%
 
-50% < DD <= -55% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -55% 100.00%
 
-55% < DD <= -60% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -60% 100.00%
 
-60% < DD <= -65% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -65% 100.00%
 
-65% < DD <= -70% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -70% 100.00%
 
-70% < DD <= -100% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -100% 100.00%
 
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months Ulcer Index
-41.38% Nov 2007 Feb 2009 16 Jan 2013 47 63 16.90
-29.43% Apr 2000 Mar 2003 36 Dec 2004 21 57 15.30
-24.88% Sep 2021 Sep 2022 13 in progress 17 30 14.70
-18.08% Jan 2020 Mar 2020 3 Nov 2020 8 11 7.39
-14.58% May 1998 Aug 1998 4 Dec 1998 4 8 6.94
-12.31% Sep 2018 Dec 2018 4 Nov 2019 11 15 5.28
-9.30% Jun 2015 Feb 2016 9 Aug 2016 6 15 4.86
-5.03% Jun 1996 Jul 1996 2 Nov 1996 4 6 2.28
-4.71% Mar 2005 Apr 2005 2 Jul 2005 3 5 2.31
-4.46% May 2006 Jul 2006 3 Oct 2006 3 6 2.83
-4.25% Sep 1994 Nov 1994 3 Apr 1995 5 8 2.45
-4.24% Oct 1997 Oct 1997 1 Feb 1998 4 5 2.51
-3.72% Feb 2018 Mar 2018 2 Jul 2018 4 6 2.62
-3.61% Mar 1994 Mar 1994 1 Aug 1994 5 6 2.49
-3.58% Jan 2000 Jan 2000 1 Feb 2000 1 2 2.07
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown (DD)
Occurrencies (EOM)
Drawdown (DD)
Range #Num Every (Avg) Frequency Cumulative Frequency
All Time High (DD=0%) 94 3.8 Months 26.04%
 
DD = 0% 26.04%
 
0% < DD <= -5% 123 2.9 Months 34.07%
 
DD <= -5% 60.11%
 
-5% < DD <= -10% 43 8.4 Months 11.91%
 
DD <= -10% 72.02%
 
-10% < DD <= -15% 38 9.5 Months 10.53%
 
DD <= -15% 82.55%
 
-15% < DD <= -20% 32 11.3 Months 8.86%
 
DD <= -20% 91.41%
 
-20% < DD <= -25% 16 22.6 Months 4.43%
 
DD <= -25% 95.84%
 
-25% < DD <= -30% 8 45.1 Months 2.22%
 
DD <= -30% 98.06%
 
-30% < DD <= -35% 4 90.3 Months 1.11%
 
DD <= -35% 99.17%
 
-35% < DD <= -40% 2 180.5 Months 0.55%
 
DD <= -40% 99.72%
 
-40% < DD <= -45% 1 361.0 Months 0.28%
 
DD <= -45% 100.00%
 
-45% < DD <= -50% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -50% 100.00%
 
-50% < DD <= -55% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -55% 100.00%
 
-55% < DD <= -60% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -60% 100.00%
 
-60% < DD <= -65% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -65% 100.00%
 
-65% < DD <= -70% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -70% 100.00%
 
-70% < DD <= -100% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -100% 100.00%
 
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months Ulcer Index
-40.40% Nov 2007 Feb 2009 16 Feb 2011 24 40 18.40
-33.61% Jan 1973 Sep 1974 21 Jan 1976 16 37 15.36
-24.46% Apr 2000 Sep 2002 30 Dec 2003 15 45 13.30
-19.76% Jan 2022 Sep 2022 9 Feb 2024 17 26 9.75
-19.71% Sep 1987 Nov 1987 3 Jan 1989 14 17 9.28
-18.24% Jan 2020 Mar 2020 3 Aug 2020 5 8 8.70
-17.57% Jan 1970 Jun 1970 6 Jan 1971 7 13 8.92
-16.20% May 2011 Sep 2011 5 Sep 2012 12 17 6.47
-14.76% Jan 1990 Sep 1990 9 Feb 1991 5 14 7.56
-13.95% May 1998 Aug 1998 4 Dec 1998 4 8 6.45
-11.92% Sep 2018 Dec 2018 4 Oct 2019 10 14 4.83
-10.53% Feb 1980 Mar 1980 2 Jun 1980 3 5 4.89
-9.99% Jun 1981 Jul 1982 14 Oct 1982 3 17 5.65
-9.37% Sep 1978 Oct 1978 2 Mar 1979 5 7 4.42
-9.17% Jun 2015 Feb 2016 9 Jul 2016 5 14 4.70
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown (DD)
Occurrencies (EOM)
Drawdown (DD)
Range #Num Every (Avg) Frequency Cumulative Frequency
All Time High (DD=0%) 234 2.8 Months 35.94%
 
DD = 0% 35.94%
 
0% < DD <= -5% 225 2.9 Months 34.56%
 
DD <= -5% 70.51%
 
-5% < DD <= -10% 91 7.2 Months 13.98%
 
DD <= -10% 84.49%
 
-10% < DD <= -15% 50 13.0 Months 7.68%
 
DD <= -15% 92.17%
 
-15% < DD <= -20% 28 23.3 Months 4.30%
 
DD <= -20% 96.47%
 
-20% < DD <= -25% 9 72.3 Months 1.38%
 
DD <= -25% 97.85%
 
-25% < DD <= -30% 8 81.4 Months 1.23%
 
DD <= -30% 99.08%
 
-30% < DD <= -35% 3 217.0 Months 0.46%
 
DD <= -35% 99.54%
 
-35% < DD <= -40% 2 325.5 Months 0.31%
 
DD <= -40% 99.85%
 
-40% < DD <= -45% 1 651.0 Months 0.15%
 
DD <= -45% 100.00%
 
-45% < DD <= -50% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -50% 100.00%
 
-50% < DD <= -55% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -55% 100.00%
 
-55% < DD <= -60% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -60% 100.00%
 
-60% < DD <= -65% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -65% 100.00%
 
-65% < DD <= -70% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -70% 100.00%
 
-70% < DD <= -100% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -100% 100.00%
 
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months Ulcer Index
-44.23% Jan 1973 Sep 1974 21 Nov 1980 74 95 20.16
-41.38% Nov 2007 Feb 2009 16 Jan 2013 47 63 16.90
-29.43% Apr 2000 Mar 2003 36 Dec 2004 21 57 15.30
-24.88% Sep 2021 Sep 2022 13 in progress 17 30 14.70
-20.48% Sep 1987 Nov 1987 3 Jul 1989 20 23 9.61
-19.91% Jan 1970 Jun 1970 6 Mar 1971 9 15 10.40
-18.94% Dec 1980 Jul 1982 20 Nov 1982 4 24 10.12
-18.77% Oct 1989 Sep 1990 12 Oct 1991 13 25 8.32
-18.08% Jan 2020 Mar 2020 3 Nov 2020 8 11 7.39
-14.58% May 1998 Aug 1998 4 Dec 1998 4 8 6.94
-12.31% Sep 2018 Dec 2018 4 Nov 2019 11 15 5.28
-10.91% Jul 1983 May 1984 11 Jan 1985 8 19 5.38
-9.30% Jun 2015 Feb 2016 9 Aug 2016 6 15 4.86
-6.43% May 1971 Jul 1971 3 Dec 1971 5 8 3.57
-5.33% Feb 1994 Nov 1994 10 Apr 1995 5 15 3.38
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown (DD)
Occurrencies (EOM)
Drawdown (DD)
Range #Num Every (Avg) Frequency Cumulative Frequency
All Time High (DD=0%) 154 4.2 Months 23.66%
 
DD = 0% 23.66%
 
0% < DD <= -5% 204 3.2 Months 31.34%
 
DD <= -5% 54.99%
 
-5% < DD <= -10% 88 7.4 Months 13.52%
 
DD <= -10% 68.51%
 
-10% < DD <= -15% 71 9.2 Months 10.91%
 
DD <= -15% 79.42%
 
-15% < DD <= -20% 63 10.3 Months 9.68%
 
DD <= -20% 89.09%
 
-20% < DD <= -25% 37 17.6 Months 5.68%
 
DD <= -25% 94.78%
 
-25% < DD <= -30% 16 40.7 Months 2.46%
 
DD <= -30% 97.24%
 
-30% < DD <= -35% 10 65.1 Months 1.54%
 
DD <= -35% 98.77%
 
-35% < DD <= -40% 4 162.8 Months 0.61%
 
DD <= -40% 99.39%
 
-40% < DD <= -45% 4 162.8 Months 0.61%
 
DD <= -45% 100.00%
 
-45% < DD <= -50% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -50% 100.00%
 
-50% < DD <= -55% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -55% 100.00%
 
-55% < DD <= -60% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -60% 100.00%
 
-60% < DD <= -65% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -65% 100.00%
 
-65% < DD <= -70% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -70% 100.00%
 
-70% < DD <= -100% 0 - 0.00%
 
DD <= -100% 100.00%
 

Rolling Returns

( more details)

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

BILL BERNSTEIN NO BRAINER PORTFOLIO
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 March 1994 - 29 February 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1970 - 29 February 2024 (~54 years)
Inflation Adjusted:
Swipe left to see all data
Rolling
Period
Worst Period
15th Percentile
50th Percentile
85th Percentile
Best Period
Latest Negative
Periods
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
1Y -34.04 03/2008
02/2009
0.65$ -4.63 0.95$ 10.36 1.10$ 19.40 1.19$ 46.17 04/2020
03/2021
1.46$ 13.50 24.93%
2Y -18.55 03/2007
02/2009
0.66$ -1.38 0.97$ 9.25 1.19$ 15.57 1.33$ 30.92 03/2009
02/2011
1.71$ 3.58 18.40%
3Y -9.55 03/2006
02/2009
0.73$ 2.06 1.06$ 8.38 1.27$ 13.55 1.46$ 20.22 04/2003
03/2006
1.73$ 3.86 12.62%
5Y -1.78 03/2004
02/2009
0.91$ 3.18 1.16$ 6.56 1.37$ 11.58 1.72$ 17.42 03/2009
02/2014
2.23$ 7.50 1.33%
7Y 1.23 03/2002
02/2009
1.08$ 5.19 1.42$ 6.83 1.58$ 8.81 1.80$ 11.75 03/2009
02/2016
2.17$ 7.38 0.00%
10Y 1.74 03/1999
02/2009
1.18$ 5.39 1.69$ 7.42 2.04$ 8.64 2.28$ 11.57 03/2009
02/2019
2.98$ 6.76 0.00%
15Y 4.83 03/1994
02/2009
2.02$ 5.80 2.32$ 6.72 2.65$ 7.50 2.96$ 10.20 03/2009
02/2024
4.29$ 10.20 0.00%
20Y 4.80 04/2000
03/2020
2.55$ 6.23 3.34$ 7.07 3.92$ 7.88 4.56$ 8.18 07/1994
06/2014
4.82$ 7.07 0.00%
30Y 7.48 03/1994
02/2024
8.70$ 7.48 8.70$ 7.48 8.70$ 7.48 8.70$ 7.48 03/1994
02/2024
8.70$ 7.48 0.00%
Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods
Swipe left to see all data
Rolling
Period
Worst Period
15th Percentile
50th Percentile
85th Percentile
Best Period
Latest Negative
Periods
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
1Y -34.04 03/2008
02/2009
0.65$ -7.47 0.92$ 7.55 1.07$ 16.73 1.16$ 42.44 04/2020
03/2021
1.42$ 10.50 29.23%
2Y -20.19 03/2007
02/2009
0.63$ -4.57 0.91$ 6.67 1.13$ 12.90 1.27$ 28.18 03/2009
02/2011
1.64$ -0.71 23.15%
3Y -11.48 03/2006
02/2009
0.69$ -1.21 0.96$ 5.99 1.19$ 10.78 1.35$ 17.40 03/2009
02/2012
1.61$ -1.57 17.85%
5Y -4.31 03/2004
02/2009
0.80$ 0.63 1.03$ 4.59 1.25$ 9.15 1.54$ 15.05 03/2009
02/2014
2.01$ 3.27 9.63%
7Y -1.32 03/2002
02/2009
0.91$ 2.79 1.21$ 4.14 1.32$ 6.87 1.59$ 10.01 03/2009
02/2016
1.95$ 3.78 1.08%
10Y -0.83 03/1999
02/2009
0.92$ 3.16 1.36$ 5.04 1.63$ 6.44 1.86$ 9.64 03/2009
02/2019
2.50$ 3.87 1.24%
15Y 2.26 03/1994
02/2009
1.39$ 3.41 1.65$ 4.35 1.89$ 5.20 2.13$ 7.47 03/2009
02/2024
2.94$ 7.47 0.00%
20Y 2.66 04/2000
03/2020
1.69$ 3.98 2.18$ 4.70 2.50$ 5.45 2.88$ 5.80 03/1995
02/2015
3.08$ 4.40 0.00%
30Y 4.84 03/1994
02/2024
4.12$ 4.84 4.12$ 4.84 4.12$ 4.84 4.12$ 4.84 03/1994
02/2024
4.12$ 4.84 0.00%
Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods
Swipe left to see all data
Rolling
Period
Worst Period
15th Percentile
50th Percentile
85th Percentile
Best Period
Latest Negative
Periods
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
1Y -34.04 03/2008
02/2009
0.65$ -2.84 0.97$ 11.33 1.11$ 22.44 1.22$ 54.85 07/1982
06/1983
1.54$ 13.50 20.50%
2Y -18.55 03/2007
02/2009
0.66$ 1.60 1.03$ 11.23 1.23$ 17.44 1.37$ 35.14 10/1985
09/1987
1.82$ 3.58 12.76%
3Y -9.55 03/2006
02/2009
0.73$ 3.67 1.11$ 10.09 1.33$ 16.27 1.57$ 31.90 08/1984
07/1987
2.29$ 3.86 9.11%
5Y -1.78 03/2004
02/2009
0.91$ 4.34 1.23$ 9.89 1.60$ 15.56 2.06$ 27.35 08/1982
07/1987
3.34$ 7.50 0.85%
7Y 1.23 03/2002
02/2009
1.08$ 6.06 1.50$ 8.88 1.81$ 15.24 2.69$ 21.87 04/1980
03/1987
3.99$ 7.38 0.00%
10Y 1.74 03/1999
02/2009
1.18$ 6.39 1.85$ 9.29 2.43$ 14.97 4.03$ 19.28 09/1977
08/1987
5.83$ 6.76 0.00%
15Y 4.83 03/1994
02/2009
2.02$ 6.37 2.52$ 9.16 3.72$ 14.33 7.45$ 17.95 10/1974
09/1989
11.89$ 10.20 0.00%
20Y 4.80 04/2000
03/2020
2.55$ 7.00 3.87$ 9.51 6.15$ 13.81 13.28$ 15.24 10/1974
09/1994
17.05$ 7.07 0.00%
30Y 7.07 11/1993
10/2023
7.75$ 7.87 9.69$ 10.11 17.97$ 12.06 30.46$ 13.06 07/1970
06/2000
39.77$ 7.48 0.00%
Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods
Swipe left to see all data
Rolling
Period
Worst Period
15th Percentile
50th Percentile
85th Percentile
Best Period
Latest Negative
Periods
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
1Y -36.63 10/1973
09/1974
0.63$ -6.47 0.93$ 7.15 1.07$ 17.68 1.17$ 51.12 07/1982
06/1983
1.51$ 10.50 27.70%
2Y -23.44 01/1973
12/1974
0.58$ -2.10 0.95$ 6.58 1.13$ 13.31 1.28$ 31.20 10/1985
09/1987
1.72$ -0.71 19.94%
3Y -12.86 10/1971
09/1974
0.66$ -0.62 0.98$ 6.10 1.19$ 11.51 1.38$ 28.04 08/1984
07/1987
2.09$ -1.57 16.42%
5Y -6.35 01/1970
12/1974
0.72$ 0.78 1.03$ 5.78 1.32$ 10.59 1.65$ 23.47 08/1982
07/1987
2.86$ 3.27 11.00%
7Y -1.43 04/1973
03/1980
0.90$ 2.72 1.20$ 5.77 1.48$ 9.96 1.94$ 17.64 08/1982
07/1989
3.11$ 3.78 3.70%
10Y -0.93 08/1972
07/1982
0.91$ 3.37 1.39$ 5.93 1.77$ 9.67 2.51$ 12.27 08/1982
07/1992
3.18$ 3.87 2.07%
15Y 2.26 03/1994
02/2009
1.39$ 3.94 1.78$ 5.93 2.37$ 9.07 3.67$ 12.03 08/1982
07/1997
5.49$ 7.47 0.00%
20Y 2.66 04/2000
03/2020
1.69$ 4.53 2.42$ 5.78 3.07$ 8.55 5.15$ 10.43 04/1980
03/2000
7.27$ 4.40 0.00%
30Y 4.43 11/1993
10/2023
3.67$ 5.22 4.60$ 6.43 6.48$ 7.31 8.29$ 8.14 01/1975
12/2004
10.47$ 4.84 0.00%
Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods

If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.

Seasonality

In which months is it better to invest in Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio?

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.
For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Gain Frequency
0.24
40%
-0.68
40%
-1.65
80%
1.41
80%
-0.11
60%
1.37
80%
2.42
80%
-0.45
40%
-2.81
20%
1.52
60%
4.48
80%
2.50
80%
Best 6.4
2023
3.2
2021
2.3
2021
7.5
2020
3.4
2020
5.2
2019
5.4
2022
4.0
2020
2.0
2019
5.5
2022
10.1
2020
5.7
2023
Worst -4.1
2022
-5.8
2020
-11.7
2020
-6.0
2022
-5.2
2019
-6.1
2022
-0.4
2021
-3.3
2022
-7.2
2022
-2.7
2023
-2.0
2021
-3.6
2022
Monthly Seasonality over the period Feb 1970 - Feb 2024
Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Gain Frequency
0.70
50%
0.14
50%
-0.17
70%
1.02
80%
0.41
80%
0.91
70%
1.76
80%
-0.28
50%
-1.67
30%
0.79
60%
3.00
90%
0.61
60%
Best 6.6
2019
4.3
2015
5.8
2016
7.5
2020
3.4
2020
5.2
2019
5.4
2022
4.0
2020
2.8
2017
5.5
2022
10.1
2020
5.7
2023
Worst -4.1
2016
-5.8
2020
-11.7
2020
-6.0
2022
-5.2
2019
-6.1
2022
-2.1
2014
-4.8
2015
-7.2
2022
-6.5
2018
-2.0
2021
-6.4
2018
Monthly Seasonality over the period Feb 1970 - Feb 2024
Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Gain Frequency
1.08
60%
0.69
60%
0.93
70%
1.34
74%
0.49
61%
0.56
54%
0.78
52%
0.28
61%
-0.29
52%
0.53
61%
1.72
76%
1.73
78%
Best 12.2
1975
7.6
1991
6.5
1986
9.8
2009
7.2
1990
5.2
2019
7.1
2009
8.8
1982
7.7
2010
11.4
1974
10.1
2020
6.9
1971
Worst -8.3
2009
-7.7
2009
-11.7
2020
-8.5
1970
-6.5
2010
-6.1
2022
-7.4
2002
-11.5
1998
-7.6
2001
-16.1
1987
-9.0
1973
-6.4
2018
Monthly Seasonality over the period Feb 1970 - Feb 2024

Monthly Returns

This section provides a visual/tabular representation of the performance variability in the Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio over time. It illustrates the distribution of monthly returns, showcasing the range and frequency of positive and negative returns.

BILL BERNSTEIN NO BRAINER PORTFOLIO
Monthly Returns Distribution
Data Source: 1 March 1994 - 29 February 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1970 - 29 February 2024 (~54 years)
227 Positive Months (63%) - 133 Negative Months (37%)
411 Positive Months (63%) - 239 Negative Months (37%)
Swipe left to see all data
(Scroll down to see all data)
Investment Returns, up to December 2007, have been derived using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.
You can find additional information on extended Data Sources here.

In particular, the series derived from equivalent datasets are:
  • IJR - iShares Core S&P Small-Cap (IJR), up to December 2000
  • VEU - Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US (VEU), up to December 2007
  • VV - Vanguard Large-Cap (VV), up to December 2004
  • SHY - iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond (SHY), up to December 2002

Portfolio efficiency

The following portfolios granted a higher return over 30 Years and a less severe drawdown at the same time.

Swipe left to see all data
30 Years Stats (%)
% Allocation
Portfolio Author Return Dev.Std Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm
Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Momentum +9.77 9.60 -32.52 60 40 0
Simple Path to Wealth JL Collins +9.04 11.77 -38.53 75 25 0
Shield Strategy Aim Ways +8.74 8.84 -19.36 42 38 20
Stocks/Bonds 60/40 +8.22 9.62 -30.55 60 40 0
Talmud Portfolio Roger Gibson +8.20 10.85 -40.17 66.7 33.3 0
Weird Portfolio Value Stock Geek +8.09 10.84 -32.97 60 20 20
Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Momentum +8.06 7.02 -21.11 40 60 0
Couch Potato Scott Burns +8.04 8.75 -27.04 50 50 0
Edge Select Moderately Aggressive Merrill Lynch +7.90 11.14 -38.23 69 31 0
Jane Bryant Quinn Portfolio Jane Bryant Quinn +7.79 10.79 -39.55 70 30 0
Sheltered Sam 70/30 Bill Bernstein +7.76 10.70 -39.73 67.9 30 2.1
Six Ways from Sunday Scott Burns +7.76 10.91 -39.14 66.7 33.3 0
Gold Pivot Ptf Aim Ways +7.76 8.20 -19.49 22 44 34
In Saecula Saeculorum Fulvio Marchese +7.72 7.83 -20.39 45 45 10
Golden Butterfly Tyler +7.56 7.73 -17.79 40 40 20
Family Taxable Portfolio Ted Aronson +7.56 11.63 -38.46 70 30 0
Coffeehouse Bill Schultheis +7.50 9.72 -33.93 60 40 0
No Brainer Portfolio Bill Bernstein +7.48 11.75 -40.40 75 25 0

Here's a list containing the Best Classic Portfolios, with the highest returns over 30 Years and High Risk categorization.

Swipe left to see all data
30 Years Stats (%)
% Allocation
Portfolio Author Return Dev.Std Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm
Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Momentum +9.77 9.60 -32.52 60 40 0
Simple Path to Wealth JL Collins +9.04 11.77 -38.53 75 25 0
Shield Strategy Aim Ways +8.74 8.84 -19.36 42 38 20
Aim Bold Strategy Aim Ways +8.30 9.92 -30.09 45 40 15
Stocks/Bonds 60/40 +8.22 9.62 -30.55 60 40 0
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