Simulation Settings
Category: Fixed Income
Period: January 2010 - March 2025 (~15 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 31 March 2025
Consolidated Returns as of 31 March 2025
Currency:
USD
Inflation: US
Results
Vanguard Short-Term Treasury Index (VGSH)
1.00$
Initial Capital
April 2015
April 2015
1.15$
Final Capital
March 2025
March 2025
1.42%
Yearly Return
1.62%
Std Deviation
-5.31%
Max Drawdown
37months
Recovery Period
1.00$
Initial Capital
April 2015
April 2015
0.85$
Final Capital
March 2025
March 2025
-1.61%
Yearly Return
1.62%
Std Deviation
-19.18%
Max Drawdown
58months*
Recovery Period
* in progress
* in progress
1.00$
Initial Capital
January 2010
January 2010
1.21$
Final Capital
March 2025
March 2025
1.28%
Yearly Return
1.37%
Std Deviation
-5.31%
Max Drawdown
37months
Recovery Period
1.00$
Initial Capital
January 2010
January 2010
0.83$
Final Capital
March 2025
March 2025
-1.25%
Yearly Return
1.37%
Std Deviation
-22.34%
Max Drawdown
175months*
Recovery Period
* in progress
* in progress
---
1 Day: ---
---
Month: ---
The Vanguard Short-Term Treasury Index (VGSH) ETF covers to the following investment themes:
- Asset Class: Bond
- Region: North America
- Country: U.S.
- Bond - Duration: Short Term
As of March 2025, over the analyzed timeframe, the Vanguard Short-Term Treasury Index (VGSH) ETF obtained a 1.28% compound annual return, with a 1.37% standard deviation. It suffered a maximum drawdown of -5.31% that required 37 months to be recovered.
Disclaimer: The simulations on this website are provided in good faith but should NOT be taken as investment advice. We are not liable for any errors or actions based on this information.
The authors of the website are not affiliated with the ETFs/Assets issuers. Content is for informational, educational, illustrative and entertainment purposes only.
Table of contents
Resources & Extras
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Investment Returns as of Mar 31, 2025
The Vanguard Short-Term Treasury Index (VGSH) ETF guaranteed the following returns.
Returns are calculated in USD, assuming:
- no fees or capital gain taxes.
- dividend reinvestment, when applicable.
VANGUARD SHORT-TERM TREASURY INDEX (VGSH) ETF
1 January 2010 - 31 March 2025 (~15 years)
Live Update: April 2025
Swipe left to see all data
| Chg (%) | Return (%) | Return (%) as of Mar 31, 2025 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Day | Time ET(*) | --- |
YTD (3M) |
1M | 6M | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y |
MAX (~15Y) |
|||
| Investment Return | --- | --- | 1.56 | 0.42 | 1.53 | 5.39 | 1.04 | 1.42 | 1.28 | |||
| Returns over 1 year are annualized | ||||||||||||
| (*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York) | ||||||||||||
| The live monthly return is calculated by assuming, for each asset, the weight defined by the base asset allocation. | ||||||||||||
In 2024, the Vanguard Short-Term Treasury Index (VGSH) ETF granted a 4.19% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Vanguard Short-Term Treasury Index (VGSH) ETF: Dividend Yield page.
Capital Growth as of Mar 31, 2025
An investment of 1$, from April 2015 to March 2025,
would be worth 1.15$, with a total return of 15.18% (1.42% annualized).
The Inflation Adjusted Capital would be 0.85$, with a net total return of -14.98% (-1.61% annualized).
The Inflation Adjusted Capital would be 0.85$, with a net total return of -14.98% (-1.61% annualized).
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An investment of 1$, from January 2010 to March 2025,
would be worth 1.21$, with a total return of 21.48% (1.28% annualized).
The Inflation Adjusted Capital would be 0.83$, with a net total return of -17.41% (-1.25% annualized).
The Inflation Adjusted Capital would be 0.83$, with a net total return of -17.41% (-1.25% annualized).
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Investment Metrics as of Mar 31, 2025
Metrics of Vanguard Short-Term Treasury Index (VGSH) ETF, updated as of 31 March 2025, provide a comprehensive overview of the portfolio's performance and risk characteristics.
These metrics include detailed data on returns, volatility, drawdowns and other key performance indicators. By examining them, you can gain insights into how the portfolio has performed over various time periods and understand its risk profile.
Metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:
- no fees or capital gain taxes.
- dividend reinvestment, when applicable.
VANGUARD SHORT-TERM TREASURY INDEX (VGSH) ETF
Advanced Metrics
1 January 2010 - 31 March 2025 (~15 years)
Swipe left to see all data
| Metrics as of Mar 31, 2025 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
YTD
(3M) |
1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y |
MAX
(~15Y) |
|
| Investment Return (%) | 1.56 | 0.42 | 1.56 | 1.53 | 5.39 | 2.74 | 1.04 | 1.42 | 1.28 |
| Growth of 1$ | 1.02 | 1.00 | 1.02 | 1.02 | 1.05 | 1.08 | 1.05 | 1.15 | 1.21 |
| US Inflation (%) | 0.63 | -0.05 | 0.63 | 1.59 | 2.39 | 3.60 | 4.37 | 3.08 | 2.56 |
| Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized. | |||||||||
|
DRAWDOWN
|
Current | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | MAX | |||
| Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) | 0.00 | -0.57 | -2.26 | -5.31 | -5.31 | -5.31 | |||
| Start to Recovery (# months) | 4 | 11 | 37 | 37 | 37 | ||||
| Start (yyyy mm) | 2024 10 | 2022 06 | 2021 06 | 2021 06 | 2021 06 | ||||
| Start to Bottom (# months) | 1 | 5 | 17 | 17 | 17 | ||||
| Bottom (yyyy mm) | 2024 10 | 2022 10 | 2022 10 | 2022 10 | 2022 10 | ||||
| Bottom to End (# months) | 3 | 6 | 20 | 20 | 20 | ||||
| End (yyyy mm) | 2025 01 | 2023 04 | 2024 06 | 2024 06 | 2024 06 | ||||
| Longest Drawdown Depth (%) |
same |
same |
same |
same |
same |
||||
| Start to Recovery (# months) | |||||||||
| Start (yyyy mm) | 2024 10 | 2022 06 | 2021 06 | 2021 06 | 2021 06 | ||||
| Start to Bottom (# months) | 1 | 5 | 17 | 17 | 17 | ||||
| Bottom (yyyy mm) | 2024 10 | 2022 10 | 2022 10 | 2022 10 | 2022 10 | ||||
| Bottom to End (# months) | 3 | 6 | 20 | 20 | 20 | ||||
| End (yyyy mm) | 2025 01 | 2023 04 | 2024 06 | 2024 06 | 2024 06 | ||||
| Longest negative period (# months) | 3 | 16 | 49 | 49 | 49 | ||||
| Start (yyyy mm) | 2024 10 | 2022 04 | 2020 04 | 2020 04 | 2020 04 | ||||
| End (yyyy mm) | 2024 12 | 2023 07 | 2024 04 | 2024 04 | 2024 04 | ||||
| Annualized Return (%) | -0.13 | -0.21 | -0.11 | -0.11 | -0.11 | ||||
| Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) | -19.11 | -1.05 | -6.35 | -19.18 | -19.18 | -22.34 | |||
| Start to Recovery (# months) | 175* | 6* | 36* | 58* | 58* | 175* | |||
| Start (yyyy mm) | 2024 10 | 2022 04 | 2020 06 | 2020 06 | 2010 09 | ||||
| Start to Bottom (# months) | 4 | 18 | 40 | 40 | 157 | ||||
| Bottom (yyyy mm) | 2025 01 | 2023 09 | 2023 09 | 2023 09 | 2023 09 | ||||
| Bottom to End (# months) | 2 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | ||||
| End (yyyy mm) | - | - | - | - | - | ||||
| Longest Drawdown Depth (%) |
same |
same |
same |
same |
same |
||||
| Start to Recovery (# months) | |||||||||
| Start (yyyy mm) | 2024 10 | 2022 04 | 2020 06 | 2020 06 | 2010 09 | ||||
| Start to Bottom (# months) | 4 | 18 | 40 | 40 | 157 | ||||
| Bottom (yyyy mm) | 2025 01 | 2023 09 | 2023 09 | 2023 09 | 2023 09 | ||||
| Bottom to End (# months) | 2 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | ||||
| End (yyyy mm) | - | - | - | - | - | ||||
| Longest negative period (# months) | 6* | 36* | 60* | 120* | 183* | ||||
| Start (yyyy mm) | 2024 10 | 2022 04 | 2020 04 | 2015 04 | 2010 01 | ||||
| End (yyyy mm) | 2025 03 | 2025 03 | 2025 03 | 2025 03 | 2025 03 | ||||
| Annualized Return (%) | -0.13 | -0.83 | -3.19 | -1.61 | -1.25 | ||||
| Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress | |||||||||
|
RISK INDICATORS
|
1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | MAX | ||||
| Standard Deviation (%) | 1.68 | 2.23 | 1.96 | 1.62 | 1.37 | ||||
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.29 | -0.64 | -0.72 | -0.18 | 0.13 | ||||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.37 | -0.87 | -1.03 | -0.27 | 0.20 | ||||
| Ulcer Index | 0.21 | 0.76 | 2.22 | 1.59 | 1.29 | ||||
| Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation | 3.22 | 1.23 | 0.53 | 0.88 | 0.94 | ||||
| Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown | 9.38 | 1.21 | 0.20 | 0.27 | 0.24 | ||||
| Positive Months (%) | 83.33 | 66.66 | 58.33 | 59.16 | 61.74 | ||||
| Positive Months | 10 | 24 | 35 | 71 | 113 | ||||
| Negative Months | 2 | 12 | 25 | 49 | 70 | ||||
|
LONG TERM RETURNS
|
1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | MAX | ||||
| Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized | 1.42 | 1.42 | |||||||
| Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized | 0.52 | ||||||||
| Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized | -1.61 | -0.31 | |||||||
| Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized | -2.01 | ||||||||
|
TIMEFRAMES
|
1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | MAX | |
| ··· As of Mar 2025 - Over the previous 10Y | |||||||||
| Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | 6.73 | 2.83 | 1.84 | 1.42 | |||||
| Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | -5.04 | -1.20 | 0.49 | ||||||
| Positive Periods (%) | 70.6 | 74.1 | 100.0 | 100.0 | |||||
| Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | 4.92 | 1.01 | 0.25 | -1.61 | |||||
| Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | -12.24 | -6.58 | -3.23 | ||||||
| Positive Periods (%) | 37.6 | 21.1 | 8.1 | 0.0 | |||||
| 95% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative | 0.65 | 0.97 | 1.17 | ||||||
| 95% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%) | 0.84 | 1.31 | 1.64 | ||||||
| 99% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative | 0.97 | 1.52 | 1.95 | ||||||
| 99% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%) | 1.17 | 1.87 | 2.44 | ||||||
| Short term VaRs: analytical | |||||||||
| Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) | 93.88 | 29.51 | 17.46 | 9.26 | |||||
| Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) | --- | --- | --- | --- | |||||
| % based on initial capital, inflation-adj. monthly withdrawals afterwards | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com | |||||||||
| ··· All available data (Jan 2010 - Mar 2025) | |||||||||
| Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | 6.73 | 2.83 | 1.84 | 1.42 | |||||
| Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | -5.04 | -1.20 | 0.39 | 0.52 | |||||
| Positive Periods (%) | 80.8 | 85.1 | 100.0 | 100.0 | |||||
| Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | 4.92 | 1.01 | 0.25 | -0.31 | |||||
| Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | -12.24 | -6.58 | -3.23 | -2.01 | |||||
| Positive Periods (%) | 30.8 | 12.8 | 4.0 | 0.0 | |||||
| 95% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative | 0.54 | 0.80 | 0.95 | 3.12 | 2.82 | 0.00 | |||
| 95% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%) | 0.71 | 1.09 | 1.35 | 4.05 | 3.17 | 0.00 | |||
| 99% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative | 0.81 | 1.27 | 1.61 | 4.88 | 3.56 | 0.00 | |||
| 99% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%) | 0.98 | 1.57 | 2.03 | 5.04 | 3.56 | 0.00 | |||
| Short term VaRs: analytical | 1+ year VaRs: historical data | |||||||||
| Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) | 93.88 | 29.51 | 17.46 | 9.25 | |||||
| Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) | --- | --- | --- | --- | |||||
| % based on initial capital, inflation-adj. monthly withdrawals afterwards | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com | |||||||||
- Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio.
- Deepest/Longest Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. The deepest (or maximum) drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained. The longest drawdown is the period observed from a peak to the subsequent peak with the greatest duration.
- Longest negative period: it's the maximum period for which an overall negative return has been observed.
- Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean.
- Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return.
- Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation).
- Ulcer Index: it's a measure of downside risk that quantifies the depth and duration of drawdowns in an investment portfolio.
- Best/Worst 10Y returns: the best and the worst 10-year return over a time frame.
- Rolling Returns: N-year returns over a time frame, calculated over all the available data source (best, worst, % of positive returns). Each rolling period, longer than the longest negative period, yielded a non-negative minimum return.
- Value at Risk (VaR): it's an evaluation of a cumulative worst-case loss (in absolute value), associated with a probability (95%-99%) and a time horizon. For short term, it's calculated based on the expected return and standard deviation, assuming a normal distribution of monthly returns. For long term is retrieved by the historical rolling return data.
- Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR): it represents the average expected loss if that worst-case threshold (95%-99%) is ever crossed.
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Correlations as of Mar 31, 2025
Correlation measures to what degree the returns of two assets move in relation to each other. It is a statistical measure that describes the extent to which the returns of one asset are related to the returns of another asset.
The following table shows the monthly correlations of Vanguard Short-Term Treasury Index (VGSH) ETF vs the main Asset Classes, over different timeframes. Columns are sortable (click on table header to sort).
VANGUARD SHORT-TERM TREASURY INDEX (VGSH) ETF
Monthly correlations as of 31 March 2025
Swipe left to see all data
| Correlation vs VGSH | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asset Class | 1 Year | 5 Years | 10 Years | 30 Years | |
|
VTI
|
US Total Stock Market | 0.38 | 0.33 | 0.04 | - |
|
SPY
|
US Large Cap Blend | 0.40 | 0.34 | 0.06 | - |
|
IJH
|
US Mid Cap Blend | 0.36 | 0.25 | -0.03 | - |
|
IJR
|
US Small Cap Blend | 0.41 | 0.26 | -0.04 | - |
|
VNQ
|
US REITs | 0.78 | 0.41 | 0.21 | - |
|
QQQ
|
US Technology | 0.23 | 0.33 | 0.11 | - |
|
PFF
|
US Preferred Stocks | 0.61 | 0.40 | 0.18 | - |
|
EFA
|
EAFE Stocks | 0.76 | 0.49 | 0.15 | - |
|
VT
|
World All Countries | 0.58 | 0.40 | 0.09 | - |
|
EEM
|
Emerging Markets | 0.60 | 0.45 | 0.15 | - |
|
BND
|
US Total Bond Market | 0.92 | 0.81 | 0.76 | - |
|
TLT
|
US Long Term Treasuries | 0.83 | 0.66 | 0.68 | - |
|
BIL
|
US Cash | 0.19 | 0.40 | 0.34 | - |
|
TIP
|
US TIPS | 0.85 | 0.69 | 0.63 | - |
|
LQD
|
US Invest. Grade Bonds | 0.88 | 0.72 | 0.60 | - |
|
HYG
|
US High Yield Bonds | 0.79 | 0.58 | 0.26 | - |
|
CWB
|
US Convertible Bonds | 0.34 | 0.26 | 0.04 | - |
|
BNDX
|
International Bonds | 0.72 | 0.73 | 0.61 | - |
|
EMB
|
Emerg. Market Bonds | 0.82 | 0.58 | 0.33 | - |
|
GLD
|
Gold | 0.06 | 0.38 | 0.37 | - |
|
DBC
|
Commodities | -0.57 | -0.12 | -0.22 | - |
Correlation values range between -1 and +1
- A correlation of +1 indicates that the returns of the two assets move in perfect synchrony; when one asset's returns go up, the other asset's returns also go up by the same percentage, and vice versa. This perfect positive correlation implies that the assets perform similarly in different market conditions.
- A correlation of -1 indicates a perfect inverse relationship between the returns of the two assets. When one asset's returns go up, the other asset's returns go down by the same percentage. This perfect negative correlation suggests that the assets move in opposite directions, providing a diversification benefit by reducing overall portfolio risk.
- A correlation of 0 means that there is no linear relationship between the returns of the two assets. The returns of one asset do not predict the returns of the other.
Learn about historical correlations here: see how the main asset classes relate to each other.
Drawdowns
A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.
VANGUARD SHORT-TERM TREASURY INDEX (VGSH) ETF
Drawdown periods
Drawdown periods - Inflation Adjusted
1 April 2015 - 31 March 2025 (10 Years)
1 January 2010 - 31 March 2025 (~15 years)
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Rolling Returns
For a detailed rolling return analysis, click here
Vanguard Short-Term Treasury Index (VGSH) ETF: Rolling Returns
Vanguard Short-Term Treasury Index (VGSH) ETF: Rolling Returns
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
VANGUARD SHORT-TERM TREASURY INDEX (VGSH) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
1 April 2015 - 31 March 2025 (10 Years)
1 January 2010 - 31 March 2025 (~15 years)
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The values shown for the rolling periods represent key statistical points: the minimum, maximum, median, and the 15th and 85th percentiles. These percentiles give insight into the distribution of the data, indicating the range within which the central 70% of the values lie, while the median represents the middle value.
Seasonality
In which months is it better to invest in Vanguard Short-Term Treasury Index (VGSH) ETF?
Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past. They are retrieved considering the time period from January 2010 to March 2025.
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For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
Monthly Returns
This section provides a visual/tabular representation of the performance variability in the Vanguard Short-Term Treasury Index (VGSH) ETF over time. It illustrates the distribution of monthly returns, showcasing the range and frequency of positive and negative returns.
VANGUARD SHORT-TERM TREASURY INDEX (VGSH) ETF
Monthly Returns Distribution
1 April 2015 - 31 March 2025 (10 Years)
1 January 2010 - 31 March 2025 (~15 years)
71 Positive Months (59%) - 49 Negative Months (41%)
113 Positive Months (62%) - 70 Negative Months (38%)
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The first official book of
Build wealth
with Lazy Portfolios and Passive Investing
with Lazy Portfolios and Passive Investing
