United States Oil Fund (USO): Historical Returns

Data Source: from April 1983 to March 2024 (~41 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 31 March 2024
Live Update: Apr 19 2024, 02:00PM Eastern Time
Category: Commodities
United States Oil Fund (USO) ETF
ETF • LIVE PERFORMANCE (USD currency)
0.41%
1 Day
Apr 19 2024, 02:00PM Eastern Time
0.47%
Current Month
April 2024

In the last 30 Years, the United States Oil Fund (USO) ETF obtained a -0.79% compound annual return, with a 34.58% standard deviation.

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The ETF is related to the following investment themes:

  • Asset Class: Commodity
  • Commodity: Crude Oil

Investment Returns as of Mar 31, 2024

The United States Oil Fund (USO) ETF guaranteed the following returns.

Returns are calculated in USD, assuming:
  • no fees or capital gain taxes.
  • the actual US Inflation rates.
UNITED STATES OIL FUND (USO) ETF
Consolidated returns as of 31 March 2024
Live Update: Apr 19 2024, 02:00PM Eastern Time
Swipe left to see all data
  Chg (%) Return (%) Return (%) as of Mar 31, 2024
  1 Day Time ET(*) Apr 2024 1M 6M 1Y 5Y 10Y 30Y MAX
(~41Y)
United States Oil Fund (USO) ETF 0.41 0.47 7.32 -2.63 18.50 -4.67 -12.31 -0.79 -2.22
US Inflation Adjusted return 6.92 -4.18 14.52 -8.51 -14.73 -3.25 -4.95
Returns over 1 year are annualized | Available data source: since Apr 1983
(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)
US Inflation is updated to Mar 2024. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 3.48% , 5Y: 4.19% , 10Y: 2.84% , 30Y: 2.54%

Capital Growth as of Mar 31, 2024

An investment of 1$, since April 1994, now would be worth 0.79$, with a total return of -21.27% (-0.79% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 0.37$, with a net total return of -62.91% (-3.25% annualized).
An investment of 1$, since April 1983, now would be worth 0.40$, with a total return of -60.22% (-2.22% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 0.12$, with a net total return of -87.50% (-4.95% annualized).

Investment Metrics as of Mar 31, 2024

Metrics of United States Oil Fund (USO) ETF, updated as of 31 March 2024.

Metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:
  • no fees or capital gain taxes.
  • the actual US Inflation rates.
UNITED STATES OIL FUND (USO) ETF
Advanced Metrics
Data Source: 1 April 1983 - 31 March 2024 (~41 years)
Swipe left to see all data
Metrics as of Mar 31, 2024
1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
(~41Y)
Investment Return (%) 7.32 18.12 -2.63 18.50 24.77 -4.67 -12.31 -5.46 -0.79 -2.22
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) details 6.92 16.80 -4.18 14.52 18.12 -8.51 -14.73 -7.85 -3.25 -4.95
US Inflation (%) 0.38 1.13 1.61 3.48 5.63 4.19 2.84 2.59 2.54 2.86
Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized.
DRAWDOWN
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -17.57 -29.06 -82.02 -93.85 -97.90 -97.90 -97.90
Start to Recovery (# months) details 6* 22* 59* 117* 189* 189* 189*
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2022 06 2019 05 2014 07 2008 07 2008 07 2008 07
Start to Bottom (# months) 3 12 12 70 142 142 142
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 12 2023 05 2020 04 2020 04 2020 04 2020 04 2020 04
Bottom to End (# months) 3 10 47 47 47 47 47
End (yyyy mm) - - - - - - -
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest
Start to Recovery (# months) details
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2022 06 2019 05 2014 07 2008 07 2008 07 2008 07
Start to Bottom (# months) 3 12 12 70 142 142 142
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 12 2023 05 2020 04 2020 04 2020 04 2020 04 2020 04
Bottom to End (# months) 3 10 47 47 47 47 47
End (yyyy mm) - - - - - - -
Longest negative period (# months) details 8 23 60* 120* 240* 360* 492*
Period Start (yyyy mm) 2023 05 2022 04 2019 04 2014 04 2004 04 1994 04 1983 04
Period End (yyyy mm) 2023 12 2024 02 2024 03 2024 03 2024 03 2024 03 2024 03
Annualized Return (%) -1.88 -0.54 -4.67 -12.31 -5.46 -0.79 -2.22
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -17.96 -31.87 -82.08 -94.31 -98.21 -98.21 -98.21
Start to Recovery (# months) details 6* 22* 59* 117* 189* 189* 189*
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2022 06 2019 05 2014 07 2008 07 2008 07 2008 07
Start to Bottom (# months) 3 12 12 70 142 142 142
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 12 2023 05 2020 04 2020 04 2020 04 2020 04 2020 04
Bottom to End (# months) 3 10 47 47 47 47 47
End (yyyy mm) - - - - - - -
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest
-78.68
Start to Recovery (# months) details 265
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2022 06 2019 05 2014 07 2008 07 2008 07 1983 08
Start to Bottom (# months) 3 12 12 70 142 142 184
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 12 2023 05 2020 04 2020 04 2020 04 2020 04 1998 11
Bottom to End (# months) 3 10 47 47 47 47 81
End (yyyy mm) - - - - - - 2005 08
Longest negative period (# months) details 9 24 60* 120* 240* 360* 492*
Period Start (yyyy mm) 2023 04 2022 03 2019 04 2014 04 2004 04 1994 04 1983 04
Period End (yyyy mm) 2023 12 2024 02 2024 03 2024 03 2024 03 2024 03 2024 03
Annualized Return (%) -2.60 -0.28 -8.51 -14.73 -7.85 -3.25 -4.95
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
RISK INDICATORS
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Standard Deviation (%) 24.83 26.52 45.94 39.73 35.87 34.58 34.74
Sharpe Ratio 0.54 0.84 -0.14 -0.34 -0.19 -0.09 -0.18
Sortino Ratio 0.73 1.14 -0.18 -0.44 -0.25 -0.12 -0.25
Ulcer Index 8.41 13.99 44.97 71.65 72.92 61.00 59.42
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 0.74 0.93 -0.10 -0.31 -0.15 -0.02 -0.06
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 1.05 0.85 -0.06 -0.13 -0.06 -0.01 -0.02
% Positive Months details 66% 58% 56% 51% 52% 53% 52%
Positive Months 8 21 34 62 126 194 260
Negative Months 4 15 26 58 114 166 232
LONG TERM RETURNS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized -12.31 2.19 25.23 25.23
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized -24.80 -24.80 -24.80
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized -14.73 -0.11 21.65 21.65
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized -26.02 -26.02 -26.02
ROLLING PERIODS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Over the latest 30Y
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 148.00 52.27 34.82 25.23 5.52 -0.79
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -82.02 -38.43 -34.94 -24.80 -10.46
% Positive Periods 53% 46% 41% 51% 23% 0%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 32.09 11.56 6.46 1.76 1.78 2.69
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - - - -
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 140.27 43.97 30.26 21.65 3.05 -3.25
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -82.08 -39.40 -35.99 -26.02 -12.25
% Positive Periods 50% 40% 37% 46% 7% 0%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 32.09 11.56 6.46 1.76 1.78 2.69
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - - - -
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Over all the available data source (Apr 1983 - Mar 2024)
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 148.00 52.27 34.82 25.23 11.53 1.49
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -82.02 -38.43 -34.94 -24.80 -10.46 -7.21
% Positive Periods 49% 45% 41% 53% 60% 22%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 32.09 11.56 6.46 1.76 1.78 1.24
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - - - -
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 140.27 43.97 30.26 21.65 8.17 -1.27
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -82.08 -39.40 -35.99 -26.02 -12.25 -9.27
% Positive Periods 46% 37% 30% 40% 43% 0%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 32.09 11.56 6.46 1.76 1.78 1.24
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - - - -
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Terms and Definitions
  • Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio.
  • Deepest/Longest Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. The deepest (or maximum) drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained. The longest drawdown is the period observed from a peak to the subsequent peak with the greatest duration.
  • Longest negative period: it's the maximum period for which an overall negative return has been observed.
  • Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean.
  • Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return.
  • Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation).
  • Ulcer Index: it's a measure of downside risk that quantifies the depth and duration of drawdowns in an investment portfolio.
  • Best/Worst 10Y returns: the best and the worst 10-year return over a time frame.
  • Rolling Returns: N-year returns over a time frame, calculated over all the available data source (best, worst, % of positive returns). Each rolling period, longer than the longest negative period, yielded a non-negative minimum return.
  • Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money in any case (money amount withdrawal).
    For instance: Your initial invested capital is 100.000$; withdrawal rate (annualized) is 4%. This means that, in the first month, you will withdraw 100.000 * 4% * 1/12 = 333.33$. The second month, you’ll withdraw 333.33$ plus the inflation monthly rate. You’ll continue adjusting your withdraw monthly for inflation.
  • Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too.

Correlations as of Mar 31, 2024

Correlation measures to what degree the returns of the two assets move in relation to each other.

Correlation coefficient is a numerical value between -1 and +1. If one variable goes up by a certain amount, the correlation coefficient indicates which way the other variable moves and by how much.
Asset correlations are calculated based on monthly returns.

Monthly correlations of United States Oil Fund (USO) ETF vs the main Asset Classes, over different timeframes. Columns are sortable (click on table header to sort).

UNITED STATES OIL FUND (USO) ETF
Monthly correlations as of 31 March 2024
Swipe left to see all data
Correlation vs USO
Asset Class 1 Year 5 Years 10 Years 30 Years Since
Jan 1992
VTI
US Total Stock Market
-0.07
0.33
0.33
0.27
0.26
SPY
US Large Cap
-0.07
0.31
0.32
0.25
0.25
IJR
US Small Cap
-0.03
0.42
0.39
0.32
0.31
VNQ
US REITs
-0.20
0.30
0.18
0.15
0.16
QQQ
US Technology
-0.36
0.14
0.18
0.19
0.19
PFF
Preferred Stocks
0.08
0.20
0.20
0.14
0.15
EFA
EAFE Stocks
0.05
0.45
0.44
0.35
0.34
VT
World All Countries
-0.01
0.39
0.40
0.32
0.32
EEM
Emerging Markets
0.11
0.37
0.36
0.32
0.30
VGK
Europe
0.04
0.46
0.45
0.32
0.32
VPL
Pacific
0.01
0.39
0.37
0.34
0.32
FLLA
Latin America
-0.12
0.52
0.44
0.35
0.33
BND
US Total Bond Market
-0.30
-0.11
-0.14
-0.10
-0.09
TLT
Long Term Treasuries
-0.35
-0.34
-0.36
-0.26
-0.25
BIL
US Cash
-0.11
-0.13
-0.03
0.04
0.03
TIP
TIPS
-0.18
0.00
0.01
0.07
0.07
LQD
Invest. Grade Bonds
-0.26
0.07
0.05
0.00
0.01
HYG
High Yield Bonds
-0.12
0.34
0.39
0.24
0.23
CWB
US Convertible Bonds
-0.08
0.33
0.35
0.29
0.28
BNDX
International Bonds
-0.48
-0.08
-0.14
0.01
0.00
EMB
Emerg. Market Bonds
-0.18
0.35
0.31
0.16
0.15
GLD
Gold
-0.13
-0.10
-0.06
0.11
0.09
DBC
Commodities
0.91
0.85
0.86
0.82
0.82

If you want to learn more about historical correlations, you can find out here how the main asset class are correlated to each other.

Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

UNITED STATES OIL FUND (USO) ETF
Drawdown periods
Drawdown periods - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 April 1994 - 31 March 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 April 1983 - 31 March 2024 (~41 years)
Inflation Adjusted:
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Rolling Returns

( more details)

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

UNITED STATES OIL FUND (USO) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 April 1994 - 31 March 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 April 1983 - 31 March 2024 (~41 years)
Inflation Adjusted:

If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the United States Oil Fund (USO) ETF: Rolling Returns page.

Seasonality

In which months is it better to invest in United States Oil Fund (USO) ETF?

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.
For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
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Monthly Returns

This section provides a visual/tabular representation of the performance variability in the United States Oil Fund (USO) ETF over time. It illustrates the distribution of monthly returns, showcasing the range and frequency of positive and negative returns.

UNITED STATES OIL FUND (USO) ETF
Monthly Returns Distribution
Data Source: 1 April 1994 - 31 March 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 April 1983 - 31 March 2024 (~41 years)
194 Positive Months (54%) - 166 Negative Months (46%)
260 Positive Months (53%) - 232 Negative Months (47%)
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(Scroll down to see all data)
Investment Returns, up to December 2006, have been derived using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets.
You can find additional information on extended Data Sources here.

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