Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio vs David Swensen Lazy Portfolio Portfolio Comparison

Simulation Settings
Period: January 1985 - April 2025 (~40 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 30 April 2025
Rebalancing: at every Jan 1st
Currency: USD
Inflation: US
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Results
30 Years
All (since January 1985)
Inflation Adjusted:
Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio
1.00$
Initial Capital
May 1995
8.85$
Final Capital
April 2025
7.54%
Yearly Return
11.80%
Std Deviation
-40.40%
Max Drawdown
40months
Recovery Period
1.00$
Initial Capital
May 1995
4.20$
Final Capital
April 2025
4.90%
Yearly Return
11.80%
Std Deviation
-41.38%
Max Drawdown
63months
Recovery Period
1.00$
Initial Capital
January 1985
33.22$
Final Capital
April 2025
9.07%
Yearly Return
11.67%
Std Deviation
-40.40%
Max Drawdown
40months
Recovery Period
1.00$
Initial Capital
January 1985
10.96$
Final Capital
April 2025
6.12%
Yearly Return
11.67%
Std Deviation
-41.38%
Max Drawdown
63months
Recovery Period
David Swensen Lazy Portfolio
1.00$
Initial Capital
May 1995
10.33$
Final Capital
April 2025
8.09%
Yearly Return
10.90%
Std Deviation
-40.89%
Max Drawdown
38months
Recovery Period
1.00$
Initial Capital
May 1995
4.90$
Final Capital
April 2025
5.44%
Yearly Return
10.90%
Std Deviation
-41.86%
Max Drawdown
40months
Recovery Period
1.00$
Initial Capital
January 1985
37.26$
Final Capital
April 2025
9.38%
Yearly Return
10.73%
Std Deviation
-40.89%
Max Drawdown
38months
Recovery Period
1.00$
Initial Capital
January 1985
12.30$
Final Capital
April 2025
6.42%
Yearly Return
10.73%
Std Deviation
-41.86%
Max Drawdown
40months
Recovery Period

As of April 2025, in the previous 30 Years, the Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio obtained a 7.54% compound annual return, with a 11.80% standard deviation. It suffered a maximum drawdown of -40.40% that required 40 months to be recovered.

As of April 2025, in the previous 30 Years, the David Swensen Lazy Portfolio obtained a 8.09% compound annual return, with a 10.90% standard deviation. It suffered a maximum drawdown of -40.89% that required 38 months to be recovered.

Disclaimer: The simulations on this website are provided in good faith but should NOT be taken as investment advice. We are not liable for any errors or actions based on this information. The authors of the website are not affiliated with the portfolio creators, who are the sole owners of their intellectual property. The translation of asset allocations into ETFs is based on the interpretation of LazyPortfolioETF.com and may not exactly reflect the original intent of the portfolio creators. Content is for informational, educational, illustrative, and entertainment purposes only.
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Asset Allocations and ETFs

The compared portfolios have the following asset allocations.

Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio
Weight
(%)		 ETF
Ticker		 Name
25.00
IJR
iShares Core S&P Small-Cap
25.00
VEU
Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US
25.00
VV
Vanguard Large-Cap
25.00
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond
David Swensen Lazy Portfolio
Weight
(%)		 ETF
Ticker		 Name
30.00
VTI
Vanguard Total Stock Market
20.00
VNQ
Vanguard Real Estate
15.00
VEU
Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US
5.00
EEM
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets
15.00
IEI
iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond
15.00
TIP
iShares TIPS Bond
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Portfolio Returns as of Apr 30, 2025

Returns are calculated in USD, assuming:
  • no fees or capital gain taxes.
  • rebalancing: at every Jan 1st.
  • dividend reinvestment, when applicable.
RETURN COMPARISON
Period: 1 January 1985 - 30 April 2025 (~40 years)
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Return (%) as of Apr 30, 2025
YTD
(4M) 		1M 6M 1Y 5Y 10Y 30Y MAX
(~40Y)
//www.lazyportfolioetf.com/wp-content/themes/dynamico-child/img/author/avatar_bernstein.webp No Brainer Portfolio
Bill Bernstein 		-1.64 -0.19 -0.76 7.77 9.75 6.77 7.54 9.07
//www.lazyportfolioetf.com/wp-content/themes/dynamico-child/img/author/avatar_david_swensen.webp Lazy Portfolio
David Swensen 		1.23 -0.04 0.60 11.66 8.15 6.22 8.09 9.38
Return over 1 year are annualized.
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Capital Growth as of Apr 30, 2025

Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio: an investment of 1$, since May 1995, now would be worth 8.85$, with a total return of 784.59% (7.54% annualized).

David Swensen Lazy Portfolio: an investment of 1$, since May 1995, now would be worth 10.33$, with a total return of 932.95% (8.09% annualized).


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Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio: an investment of 1$, since January 1985, now would be worth 33.22$, with a total return of 3221.78% (9.07% annualized).

David Swensen Lazy Portfolio: an investment of 1$, since January 1985, now would be worth 37.26$, with a total return of 3626.24% (9.38% annualized).


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Portfolio Metrics as of Apr 30, 2025

The following metrics, updated as of 30 April 2025, provide an overview of performance and risk, with the best value in each row highlighted within the table.

METRIC COMPARISON
Period: 1 May 2024 - 30 April 2025 (1 year)
Period: 1 May 2020 - 30 April 2025 (5 years)
Period: 1 May 2015 - 30 April 2025 (10 years)
Period: 1 May 1995 - 30 April 2025 (30 years)
Period: 1 January 1985 - 30 April 2025 (~40 years)
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No Brainer Portfolio Lazy Portfolio
Author Bill Bernstein David Swensen
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks 75% 70%
Fixed Income 25% 30%
Commodities 0% 0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%) 7.77 11.66
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) 5.58 9.39
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -4.91 -3.50
Start to Recovery (months) 5* 5*
Longest Drawdown Depth (%) -4.91 -3.50
Start to Recovery (months) 5* 5*
Longest Negative Period (months) 9* 7*
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%) 8.70 7.80
Sharpe Ratio 0.34 0.88
Sortino Ratio 0.48 1.09
Ulcer Index 2.28 1.53
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 0.89 1.49
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 1.58 3.33
Metrics calculated over the period 1 May 2024 - 30 April 2025
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No Brainer Portfolio Lazy Portfolio
Author Bill Bernstein David Swensen
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks 75% 70%
Fixed Income 25% 30%
Commodities 0% 0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%) 9.75 8.15
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) 4.99 3.46
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -19.76 -22.43
Start to Recovery (months) 26 31
Longest Drawdown Depth (%) -19.76 -22.43
Start to Recovery (months) 26 31
Longest Negative Period (months) 32 34
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%) 12.20 12.08
Sharpe Ratio 0.59 0.47
Sortino Ratio 0.83 0.62
Ulcer Index 6.62 8.71
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 0.80 0.67
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 0.49 0.36
Metrics calculated over the period 1 May 2020 - 30 April 2025
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No Brainer Portfolio Lazy Portfolio
Author Bill Bernstein David Swensen
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks 75% 70%
Fixed Income 25% 30%
Commodities 0% 0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%) 6.77 6.22
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) 3.58 3.05
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -19.76 -22.43
Start to Recovery (months) 26 31
Longest Drawdown Depth (%) -19.76 -22.43
Start to Recovery (months) 26 31
Longest Negative Period (months) 33 34
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%) 11.83 11.03
Sharpe Ratio 0.42 0.41
Sortino Ratio 0.57 0.54
Ulcer Index 5.80 6.67
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 0.57 0.56
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 0.34 0.28
Metrics calculated over the period 1 May 2015 - 30 April 2025
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No Brainer Portfolio Lazy Portfolio
Author Bill Bernstein David Swensen
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks 75% 70%
Fixed Income 25% 30%
Commodities 0% 0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%) 7.54 8.09
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) 4.90 5.44
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -40.40 -40.89
Start to Recovery (months) 40 38
Longest Drawdown Depth (%) -24.46 -40.89
Start to Recovery (months) 45 38
Longest Negative Period (months) 110 62
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%) 11.80 10.90
Sharpe Ratio 0.45 0.53
Sortino Ratio 0.58 0.69
Ulcer Index 8.72 7.44
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 0.64 0.74
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 0.19 0.20
Metrics calculated over the period 1 May 1995 - 30 April 2025
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No Brainer Portfolio Lazy Portfolio
Author Bill Bernstein David Swensen
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks 75% 70%
Fixed Income 25% 30%
Commodities 0% 0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%) 9.07 9.38
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) 6.12 6.42
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -40.40 -40.89
Start to Recovery (months) 40 38
Longest Drawdown Depth (%) -24.46 -40.89
Start to Recovery (months) 45 38
Longest Negative Period (months) 110 62
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%) 11.67 10.73
Sharpe Ratio 0.51 0.58
Sortino Ratio 0.66 0.75
Ulcer Index 7.88 6.73
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 0.78 0.87
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 0.22 0.23
Metrics calculated over the period 1 January 1985 - 30 April 2025
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Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

DRAWDOWN COMPARISON
Period: 1 May 1995 - 30 April 2025 (30 years)
Period: 1 January 1985 - 30 April 2025 (~40 years)

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No Brainer Portfolio Lazy Portfolio
Drawdown
(%) 		Recovery
(#Months)		 From
To		 Drawdown
(%) 		Recovery
(#Months)		 From
To
-40.89 38 Nov 2007
Dec 2010
-40.40 40 Nov 2007
Feb 2011
-24.46 45 Apr 2000
Dec 2003
-22.43 31 Jan 2022
Jul 2024
-19.76 26 Jan 2022
Feb 2024
-18.24 8 Jan 2020
Aug 2020
-16.20 17 May 2011
Sep 2012
-14.66 7 Feb 2020
Aug 2020
-13.95 8 May 1998
Dec 1998
-12.40 10 May 2011
Feb 2012
-11.92 14 Sep 2018
Oct 2019
-11.28 9 Apr 1998
Dec 1998
-10.67 33 Sep 2000
May 2003
-9.17 14 Jun 2015
Jul 2016
-8.18 7 Sep 2018
Mar 2019

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No Brainer Portfolio Lazy Portfolio
Drawdown
(%) 		Recovery
(#Months)		 From
To		 Drawdown
(%) 		Recovery
(#Months)		 From
To
-40.89 38 Nov 2007
Dec 2010
-40.40 40 Nov 2007
Feb 2011
-24.46 45 Apr 2000
Dec 2003
-22.43 31 Jan 2022
Jul 2024
-19.76 26 Jan 2022
Feb 2024
-19.71 17 Sep 1987
Jan 1989
-18.24 8 Jan 2020
Aug 2020
-16.20 17 May 2011
Sep 2012
-16.20 16 Sep 1987
Dec 1988
-14.76 14 Jan 1990
Feb 1991
-14.66 7 Feb 2020
Aug 2020
-13.95 8 May 1998
Dec 1998
-12.63 14 Jan 1990
Feb 1991
-12.40 10 May 2011
Feb 2012
-11.92 14 Sep 2018
Oct 2019

Rolling Returns

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the Simulation Settings.

You can explore the Rolling Returns for a single portfolio, or check the return differential, by switching on "Head To Head" toggle.

Rolling Returns Comparison
Annualized Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 January 1985 - 30 April 2025 (~40 years)


Head To Head (Ptf 1 vs Ptf 2):
US Inflation Adjusted:

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Yearly Returns

For each year, the following table provides the return and intra-year drawdown. The highlighted returns represent the highest values for that specific year.

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No Brainer Portfolio Lazy Portfolio
Year Return
(%)		 Drawdown
(%)		 Return
(%)		 Drawdown
(%)
2025
 -1.64 -3.94 1.23 -1.98
2024
 10.84 -3.33 9.78 -3.79
2023
 15.77 -8.55 14.13 -8.59
2022
 -13.89 -19.76 -17.86 -22.43
2021
 15.39 -2.73 17.34 -3.57
2020
 11.61 -18.24 10.56 -14.66
2019
 19.82 -5.15 21.27 -2.73
2018
 -6.41 -11.92 -5.67 -8.18
2017
 15.70 -0.29 13.94 0.00
2016
 11.03 -4.44 7.74 -3.13
2015
 -1.35 -7.81 -0.95 -6.84
2014
 3.78 -3.16 9.97 -3.50
2013
 22.10 -1.89 10.89 -4.57
2012
 12.91 -6.94 13.49 -4.74
2011
 -2.59 -16.20 2.21 -12.40
2010
 14.15 -9.69 15.37 -7.79
2009
 22.80 -15.37 24.86 -16.73
2008
 -26.26 -28.63 -25.53 -30.78
2007
 7.14 -4.50 5.59 -4.67
2006
 15.27 -3.41 17.84 -2.82
2005
 7.66 -4.07 8.97 -2.65
2004
 13.66 -3.04 16.10 -5.90
2003
 27.39 -4.14 26.85 -1.91
2002
 -10.88 -16.92 -3.41 -9.34
2001
 -4.49 -14.84 -1.71 -9.38
2000
 -4.63 -10.08 3.13 -5.95
1999
 18.99 -3.58 12.70 -3.25
1998
 12.24 -13.95 8.13 -11.28
1997
 15.88 -4.06 15.35 -3.79
1996
 12.52 -4.66 15.04 -2.41
1995
 20.57 -1.62 20.31 -1.03
1994
 2.49 -4.18 -2.86 -8.21
1993
 16.21 -3.68 20.71 -3.68
1992
 4.40 -3.33 5.36 -3.21
1991
 24.11 -4.26 29.05 -3.46
1990
 -9.08 -14.76 -6.06 -12.63
1989
 18.78 -2.53 21.59 -1.39
1988
 17.83 -3.06 15.34 -2.25
1987
 8.39 -19.71 2.49 -16.20
1986
 25.39 -4.13 23.31 -3.94
1985
 32.35 -2.40 29.41 -1.92
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Mastering ETF Investing
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