Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio vs Bill Schultheis Coffeehouse Portfolio Portfolio Comparison

Simulation Settings
Period: January 1970 - April 2025 (~55 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 30 April 2025
Rebalancing: at every Jan 1st
Currency: USD
Inflation: US
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Results
30 Years
All (since January 1970)
Inflation Adjusted:
Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio
1.00$
Initial Capital
May 1995
8.85$
Final Capital
April 2025
7.54%
Yearly Return
11.80%
Std Deviation
-40.40%
Max Drawdown
40months
Recovery Period
1.00$
Initial Capital
May 1995
4.20$
Final Capital
April 2025
4.90%
Yearly Return
11.80%
Std Deviation
-41.38%
Max Drawdown
63months
Recovery Period
1.00$
Initial Capital
January 1970
146.15$
Final Capital
April 2025
9.43%
Yearly Return
12.03%
Std Deviation
-40.40%
Max Drawdown
40months
Recovery Period
1.00$
Initial Capital
January 1970
17.23$
Final Capital
April 2025
5.28%
Yearly Return
12.03%
Std Deviation
-44.23%
Max Drawdown
95months
Recovery Period
Bill Schultheis Coffeehouse Portfolio
1.00$
Initial Capital
May 1995
8.96$
Final Capital
April 2025
7.58%
Yearly Return
9.83%
Std Deviation
-33.93%
Max Drawdown
36months
Recovery Period
1.00$
Initial Capital
May 1995
4.25$
Final Capital
April 2025
4.94%
Yearly Return
9.83%
Std Deviation
-35.02%
Max Drawdown
38months
Recovery Period
1.00$
Initial Capital
January 1970
153.58$
Final Capital
April 2025
9.52%
Yearly Return
9.98%
Std Deviation
-33.93%
Max Drawdown
36months
Recovery Period
1.00$
Initial Capital
January 1970
18.11$
Final Capital
April 2025
5.37%
Yearly Return
9.98%
Std Deviation
-35.86%
Max Drawdown
69months
Recovery Period

As of April 2025, in the previous 30 Years, the Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio obtained a 7.54% compound annual return, with a 11.80% standard deviation. It suffered a maximum drawdown of -40.40% that required 40 months to be recovered.

As of April 2025, in the previous 30 Years, the Bill Schultheis Coffeehouse Portfolio obtained a 7.58% compound annual return, with a 9.83% standard deviation. It suffered a maximum drawdown of -33.93% that required 36 months to be recovered.

Disclaimer: The simulations on this website are provided in good faith but should NOT be taken as investment advice. We are not liable for any errors or actions based on this information. The authors of the website are not affiliated with the portfolio creators, who are the sole owners of their intellectual property. The translation of asset allocations into ETFs is based on the interpretation of LazyPortfolioETF.com and may not exactly reflect the original intent of the portfolio creators. Content is for informational, educational, illustrative, and entertainment purposes only.
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Asset Allocations and ETFs

The compared portfolios have the following asset allocations.

Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio
Weight
(%)		 Ticker Name
25.00
IJR
iShares Core S&P Small-Cap
25.00
VEU
Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US
25.00
VV
Vanguard Large-Cap
25.00
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond
Bill Schultheis Coffeehouse Portfolio
Weight
(%)		 Ticker Name
10.00
IJR
iShares Core S&P Small-Cap
10.00
IJS
iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value
10.00
VTV
Vanguard Value
10.00
VEU
Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US
10.00
VNQ
Vanguard Real Estate
10.00
VV
Vanguard Large-Cap
40.00
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
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Portfolio Returns as of Apr 30, 2025

Returns are calculated in USD, assuming:
  • no fees or capital gain taxes.
  • rebalancing: at every Jan 1st.
  • dividend reinvestment, when applicable.
RETURN COMPARISON
Period: 1 January 1970 - 30 April 2025 (~55 years)
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Return (%) as of Apr 30, 2025
YTD
(4M) 		1M 6M 1Y 5Y 10Y 30Y MAX
(~55Y)
//www.lazyportfolioetf.com/wp-content/themes/dynamico-child/img/author/avatar_bernstein.webp No Brainer Portfolio
Bill Bernstein 		-1.64 -0.19 -0.76 7.77 9.75 6.77 7.54 9.43
//www.lazyportfolioetf.com/wp-content/themes/dynamico-child/img/author/avatar_bill_schultheis.webp Coffeehouse
Bill Schultheis 		-1.23 -1.14 -1.42 7.90 6.74 5.45 7.58 9.52
Return over 1 year are annualized.
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Capital Growth as of Apr 30, 2025

Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio: an investment of 1$, since May 1995, now would be worth 8.85$, with a total return of 784.59% (7.54% annualized).

Bill Schultheis Coffeehouse Portfolio: an investment of 1$, since May 1995, now would be worth 8.96$, with a total return of 795.73% (7.58% annualized).


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Bill Bernstein No Brainer Portfolio: an investment of 1$, since January 1970, now would be worth 146.15$, with a total return of 14515.02% (9.43% annualized).

Bill Schultheis Coffeehouse Portfolio: an investment of 1$, since January 1970, now would be worth 153.58$, with a total return of 15257.60% (9.52% annualized).


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Portfolio Metrics as of Apr 30, 2025

The following metrics, updated as of 30 April 2025, provide an overview of performance and risk, with the best value in each row highlighted within the table.

METRIC COMPARISON
Period: 1 May 2024 - 30 April 2025 (1 year)
Period: 1 May 2020 - 30 April 2025 (5 years)
Period: 1 May 2015 - 30 April 2025 (10 years)
Period: 1 May 1995 - 30 April 2025 (30 years)
Period: 1 January 1970 - 30 April 2025 (~55 years)
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No Brainer Portfolio Coffeehouse
Author Bill Bernstein Bill Schultheis
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks 75% 60%
Fixed Income 25% 40%
Commodities 0% 0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%) 7.77 7.90
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) 5.58 5.71
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -4.91 -5.44
Start to Recovery (months) 5* 5*
Longest Drawdown Depth (%) -4.91 -5.44
Start to Recovery (months) 5* 5*
Longest Negative Period (months) 9* 9*
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%) 8.70 9.25
Sharpe Ratio 0.34 0.34
Sortino Ratio 0.48 0.46
Ulcer Index 2.28 2.53
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 0.89 0.85
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 1.58 1.45
Metrics calculated over the period 1 May 2024 - 30 April 2025
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No Brainer Portfolio Coffeehouse
Author Bill Bernstein Bill Schultheis
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks 75% 60%
Fixed Income 25% 40%
Commodities 0% 0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%) 9.75 6.74
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) 4.99 2.11
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -19.76 -19.65
Start to Recovery (months) 26 31
Longest Drawdown Depth (%) -19.76 -19.65
Start to Recovery (months) 26 31
Longest Negative Period (months) 32 36
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%) 12.20 11.71
Sharpe Ratio 0.59 0.36
Sortino Ratio 0.83 0.50
Ulcer Index 6.62 7.45
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 0.80 0.58
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 0.49 0.34
Metrics calculated over the period 1 May 2020 - 30 April 2025
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No Brainer Portfolio Coffeehouse
Author Bill Bernstein Bill Schultheis
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks 75% 60%
Fixed Income 25% 40%
Commodities 0% 0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%) 6.77 5.45
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) 3.58 2.31
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -19.76 -19.65
Start to Recovery (months) 26 31
Longest Drawdown Depth (%) -19.76 -19.65
Start to Recovery (months) 26 31
Longest Negative Period (months) 33 36
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%) 11.83 10.64
Sharpe Ratio 0.42 0.35
Sortino Ratio 0.57 0.47
Ulcer Index 5.80 5.86
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 0.57 0.51
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 0.34 0.28
Metrics calculated over the period 1 May 2015 - 30 April 2025
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No Brainer Portfolio Coffeehouse
Author Bill Bernstein Bill Schultheis
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks 75% 60%
Fixed Income 25% 40%
Commodities 0% 0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%) 7.54 7.58
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) 4.90 4.94
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -40.40 -33.93
Start to Recovery (months) 40 36
Longest Drawdown Depth (%) -24.46 -33.93
Start to Recovery (months) 45 36
Longest Negative Period (months) 110 62
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%) 11.80 9.83
Sharpe Ratio 0.45 0.54
Sortino Ratio 0.58 0.70
Ulcer Index 8.72 6.16
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 0.64 0.77
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 0.19 0.22
Metrics calculated over the period 1 May 1995 - 30 April 2025
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No Brainer Portfolio Coffeehouse
Author Bill Bernstein Bill Schultheis
ASSET ALLOCATION
Stocks 75% 60%
Fixed Income 25% 40%
Commodities 0% 0%
PERFORMANCES
Annualized Return (%) 9.43 9.52
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) 5.28 5.37
DRAWDOWN
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -40.40 -33.93
Start to Recovery (months) 40 36
Longest Drawdown Depth (%) -24.46 -33.93
Start to Recovery (months) 45 36
Longest Negative Period (months) 110 62
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%) 12.03 9.98
Sharpe Ratio 0.42 0.51
Sortino Ratio 0.56 0.68
Ulcer Index 7.89 5.55
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 0.78 0.95
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 0.23 0.28
Metrics calculated over the period 1 January 1970 - 30 April 2025
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Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

DRAWDOWN COMPARISON
Period: 1 May 1995 - 30 April 2025 (30 years)
Period: 1 January 1970 - 30 April 2025 (~55 years)

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No Brainer Portfolio Coffeehouse
Drawdown
(%) 		Recovery
(#Months)		 From
To		 Drawdown
(%) 		Recovery
(#Months)		 From
To
-40.40 40 Nov 2007
Feb 2011
-33.93 36 Nov 2007
Oct 2010
-24.46 45 Apr 2000
Dec 2003
-19.76 26 Jan 2022
Feb 2024
-19.65 31 Jan 2022
Jul 2024
-18.24 8 Jan 2020
Aug 2020
-16.20 17 May 2011
Sep 2012
-15.36 11 Jan 2020
Nov 2020
-13.95 8 May 1998
Dec 1998
-11.92 14 Sep 2018
Oct 2019
-11.30 14 May 2002
Jun 2003
-10.79 8 May 1998
Dec 1998
-10.66 9 May 2011
Jan 2012
-9.17 14 Jun 2015
Jul 2016
-9.00 8 Sep 2018
Apr 2019

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No Brainer Portfolio Coffeehouse
Drawdown
(%) 		Recovery
(#Months)		 From
To		 Drawdown
(%) 		Recovery
(#Months)		 From
To
-40.40 40 Nov 2007
Feb 2011
-33.93 36 Nov 2007
Oct 2010
-33.61 37 Jan 1973
Jan 1976
-24.46 45 Apr 2000
Dec 2003
-23.45 31 Dec 1972
Jun 1975
-19.76 26 Jan 2022
Feb 2024
-19.71 17 Sep 1987
Jan 1989
-19.65 31 Jan 2022
Jul 2024
-18.24 8 Jan 2020
Aug 2020
-17.57 13 Jan 1970
Jan 1971
-16.20 17 May 2011
Sep 2012
-15.68 14 Sep 1987
Oct 1988
-15.36 11 Jan 2020
Nov 2020
-14.76 14 Jan 1990
Feb 1991
-13.95 8 May 1998
Dec 1998

Rolling Returns

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the Simulation Settings.

You can explore the Rolling Returns for a single portfolio, or check the return differential, by switching on "Head To Head" toggle.

Rolling Returns Comparison
Annualized Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 January 1970 - 30 April 2025 (~55 years)


Head To Head (Ptf 1 vs Ptf 2):
US Inflation Adjusted:

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Yearly Returns

For each year, the following table provides the return and intra-year drawdown. The highlighted returns represent the highest values for that specific year.

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No Brainer Portfolio Coffeehouse
Year Return
(%)		 Drawdown
(%)		 Return
(%)		 Drawdown
(%)
2025
 -1.64 -3.94 -1.23 -3.35
2024
 10.84 -3.33 7.31 -4.27
2023
 15.77 -8.55 11.65 -9.20
2022
 -13.89 -19.76 -14.38 -19.65
2021
 15.39 -2.73 15.24 -2.68
2020
 11.61 -18.24 7.45 -15.36
2019
 19.82 -5.15 18.99 -3.17
2018
 -6.41 -11.92 -5.19 -9.00
2017
 15.70 -0.29 11.02 -0.14
2016
 11.03 -4.44 11.04 -2.64
2015
 -1.35 -7.81 -0.91 -5.61
2014
 3.78 -3.16 8.90 -2.75
2013
 22.10 -1.89 15.45 -2.56
2012
 12.91 -6.94 11.51 -3.93
2011
 -2.59 -16.20 2.80 -10.66
2010
 14.15 -9.69 14.67 -7.05
2009
 22.80 -15.37 17.77 -15.43
2008
 -26.26 -28.63 -18.65 -23.09
2007
 7.14 -4.50 2.67 -4.24
2006
 15.27 -3.41 15.13 -2.29
2005
 7.66 -4.07 6.39 -2.22
2004
 13.66 -3.04 13.96 -4.05
2003
 27.39 -4.14 23.09 -2.53
2002
 -10.88 -16.92 -4.97 -11.30
2001
 -4.49 -14.84 2.01 -6.90
2000
 -4.63 -10.08 7.25 -3.83
1999
 18.99 -3.58 8.30 -3.23
1998
 12.24 -13.95 7.16 -10.79
1997
 15.88 -4.06 17.88 -2.22
1996
 12.52 -4.66 13.71 -2.62
1995
 20.57 -1.62 22.24 -1.06
1994
 2.49 -4.18 -0.93 -5.85
1993
 16.21 -3.68 15.63 -2.89
1992
 4.40 -3.33 9.77 -1.73
1991
 24.11 -4.26 24.84 -2.96
1990
 -9.08 -14.76 -5.30 -10.73
1989
 18.78 -2.53 17.31 -1.45
1988
 17.83 -3.06 15.77 -1.69
1987
 8.39 -19.71 2.99 -15.68
1986
 25.39 -4.13 20.45 -3.64
1985
 32.35 -2.40 29.40 -1.69
1984
 4.70 -6.54 10.29 -5.60
1983
 21.16 -2.72 19.62 -2.03
1982
 17.74 -8.02 25.69 -2.93
1981
 2.36 -9.62 5.31 -8.17
1980
 24.96 -10.53 18.45 -10.32
1979
 19.11 -7.00 18.67 -8.08
1978
 14.56 -9.37 9.54 -8.29
1977
 6.69 -2.39 6.30 -2.07
1976
 19.98 -3.10 26.24 -1.72
1975
 32.96 -10.04 26.63 -7.71
1974
 -16.80 -24.06 -11.50 -18.00
1973
 -13.98 -14.44 -9.21 -10.07
1972
 17.61 -1.37 11.19 -0.55
1971
 18.87 -5.26 13.35 -5.98
1970
 -0.89 -17.57 7.28 -12.39
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