Bill Bernstein Sheltered Sam 100/0 Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns

Data Source: from January 1976 to May 2023 (~47 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 31 May 2023
Live Update: Jun 02 2023
PORTFOLIO • LIVE PERFORMANCE (USD currency)
2.22%
1 Day
Jun 02 2023
3.17%
Current Month
June 2023

The Bill Bernstein Sheltered Sam 100/0 Portfolio is a Very High Risk portfolio and can be implemented with 10 ETFs.

It's exposed for 97% on the Stock Market and for 3% on Commodities.

In the last 30 Years, the Bill Bernstein Sheltered Sam 100/0 Portfolio obtained a 8.92% compound annual return, with a 15.16% standard deviation.

Asset Allocation and ETFs

The Bill Bernstein Sheltered Sam 100/0 Portfolio has the following asset allocation:

97% Stocks
0% Fixed Income
3% Commodities

The Bill Bernstein Sheltered Sam 100/0 Portfolio can be implemented with the following ETFs:

Weight (%) Ticker ETF Name Investment Themes
25.00
VTV
Vanguard Value Equity, U.S., Large Cap, Value
20.00
VV
Vanguard Large-Cap Equity, U.S., Large Cap
15.00
IJS
iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value Equity, U.S., Small Cap, Value
10.00
VNQ
Vanguard Real Estate Real Estate, U.S.
7.00
EFV
iShares MSCI EAFE Value Equity, EAFE, Large Cap, Value
5.00
IJR
iShares Core S&P Small-Cap Equity, U.S., Small Cap
5.00
EEM
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Equity, Emerging Markets, Large Cap
5.00
VGK
Vanguard FTSE Europe Equity, Developed Europe, Large Cap
5.00
VPL
Vanguard FTSE Pacific Equity, Developed Asia Pacific, Large Cap
3.00
GLTR
Aberdeen Standard Physical Precious Metals Basket Shares Commodity, Broad Precious Metals

Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

Portfolio and ETF Returns as of May 31, 2023

The Bill Bernstein Sheltered Sam 100/0 Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.

Portfolio returns are calculated in USD, assuming: June 2023 return is calculated on the hypothesis of a newly built portfolio, with the starting asset allocation.
BILL BERNSTEIN SHELTERED SAM 100/0 PORTFOLIO
Consolidated returns as of 31 May 2023
Live Update: Jun 02 2023
Swipe left to see all data
    Chg (%) Return (%) Return (%) as of May 31, 2023
    1 Day Time ET(*) Jun 2023 1M 6M 1Y 5Y 10Y 30Y MAX
(~47Y)
Bill Bernstein Sheltered Sam 100/0 Portfolio 2.22 3.17 -2.79 -2.65 -3.60 6.07 8.14 8.92 11.93
US Inflation Adjusted return -2.79 -4.46 -7.11 2.17 5.32 6.25 7.99
Components
VTV
Vanguard Value 1.97 Jun 02 2023 2.64 -4.12 -6.58 -3.93 8.08 9.73 9.03 9.87
VV
Vanguard Large-Cap 1.46 Jun 02 2023 2.50 0.73 3.57 2.95 10.80 11.85 9.84 8.93
IJS
iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value 4.49 Jun 02 2023 5.32 -3.66 -9.53 -8.86 3.20 8.10 10.13 12.72
VNQ
Vanguard Real Estate 2.44 Jun 02 2023 2.45 -3.96 -6.98 -15.87 4.07 5.34 8.35 6.94
EFV
iShares MSCI EAFE Value 1.61 Jun 02 2023 3.17 -5.22 3.57 0.31 1.52 3.09 5.45 9.87
IJR
iShares Core S&P Small-Cap 4.12 Jun 02 2023 5.01 -1.67 -8.53 -7.27 3.75 8.89 9.76 11.34
EEM
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets 1.72 Jun 02 2023 3.53 -2.40 -1.90 -8.29 -1.39 1.39 5.57 7.36
VGK
Vanguard FTSE Europe 1.18 Jun 02 2023 2.37 -5.12 7.20 4.26 4.15 5.05 7.11 8.65
VPL
Vanguard FTSE Pacific 1.82 Jun 02 2023 3.85 -1.16 3.07 -0.43 1.34 4.54 2.62 8.21
GLTR
Aberdeen Standard Physical Precious Metals Basket Shares -1.07 Jun 02 2023 0.14 -3.62 3.86 1.74 7.14 1.81 5.98 8.47
Returns over 1 year are annualized | Available data source: since Jan 1976
(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)
US Inflation is updated to Apr 2023. Waiting for updates, inflation of May 2023 is set to 0%. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 3.79% , 5Y: 3.81% , 10Y: 2.68% , 30Y: 2.51%

In 2022, the Bill Bernstein Sheltered Sam 100/0 Portfolio granted a 2.02% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Bill Bernstein Sheltered Sam 100/0 Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.

Portfolio Metrics as of May 31, 2023

Metrics of Bill Bernstein Sheltered Sam 100/0 Portfolio, updated as of 31 May 2023.

Portfolio metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:
BILL BERNSTEIN SHELTERED SAM 100/0 PORTFOLIO
Portfolio Metrics
Data Source: 1 January 1976 - 31 May 2023 (~47 years)
Swipe left to see all data
Metrics as of May 31, 2023
1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
(~47Y)
Portfolio Return (%) -2.79 -2.24 -2.65 -3.60 11.37 6.07 8.14 8.96 8.92 11.93
US Inflation (%) 0.00 0.84 1.90 3.79 5.77 3.81 2.68 2.55 2.51 3.65
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) -2.79 -3.05 -4.46 -7.11 5.29 2.17 5.32 6.25 6.25 7.99
Waiting for updates, inflation of May 2023 is temporarily set to 0%. Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized.
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%) 20.46 16.61 18.14 14.48 15.82 15.16 14.82
Sharpe Ratio -0.33 0.62 0.26 0.51 0.49 0.44 0.54
Sortino Ratio -0.49 0.88 0.35 0.68 0.64 0.57 0.70
MAXIMUM DRAWDOWN
Drawdown Depth (%) -14.86 -21.73 -25.40 -25.40 -54.91 -54.91 -54.91
Start (yyyy mm) 2022 06 2022 01 2020 01 2020 01 2007 11 2007 11 2007 11
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2022 09 2022 09 2020 03 2020 03 2009 02 2009 02 2009 02
Start to Bottom (# months) 4 9 3 3 16 16 16
Start to Recovery (# months) in progress
8
> 17
11
11
62
62
62
ROLLING PERIOD RETURNS - Annualized
Best Return (%) 64.80 35.58 31.56 21.52 17.56 14.92
Worst Return (%) -47.55 -16.64 -4.85 1.21 6.03 8.79
% Positive Periods 79% 92% 97% 100% 100% 100%
MONTHS
Positive 0 1 2 5 21 37 80 162 238 379
Negative 1 2 4 7 15 23 40 78 122 190
% Positive 0% 33% 33% 42% 58% 62% 67% 68% 66% 67%
WITHDRAWAL RATES (WR)
Safe WR (%) 43.21 22.40 14.45 9.99 8.51 10.73
Perpetual WR (%) 5.03 2.13 5.05 5.88 5.89 7.40
Terms and Definitions
  • Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio
  • Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean
  • Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return.
  • Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation).
  • Maximum Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.
  • Rolling Returns: returns over a time frame (best, worst, % of positive returns).
  • Pos./Neg. Months: number of months with positive/negative return.
  • Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the original portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money (dollar amount withdrawal).
  • Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year, while retaining the inflation adjusted portfolio balance (percentage withdrawal).

Portfolio Components Correlation

Correlation measures to what degree the returns of the two assets move in relation to each other.

Correlation coefficient is a numerical value between -1 and +1.

If one variable goes up by a certain amount, the correlation coefficient indicates which way the other variable moves and by how much.

Asset correlations are calculated based on monthly returns.
COMPONENTS MONTHLY CORRELATIONS
Monthly correlations as of 31 May 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Asset
VTV
VV
IJS
VNQ
EFV
IJR
EEM
VGK
VPL
GLTR
VTV
-
0.89
0.89
0.82
0.87
0.88
0.58
0.89
0.78
0.29
VV
0.89
-
0.86
0.91
0.80
0.89
0.64
0.87
0.86
0.32
IJS
0.89
0.86
-
0.87
0.78
0.99
0.50
0.79
0.70
0.03
VNQ
0.82
0.91
0.87
-
0.86
0.88
0.76
0.89
0.90
0.36
EFV
0.87
0.80
0.78
0.86
-
0.76
0.81
0.98
0.92
0.53
IJR
0.88
0.89
0.99
0.88
0.76
-
0.50
0.79
0.72
0.03
EEM
0.58
0.64
0.50
0.76
0.81
0.50
-
0.79
0.93
0.67
VGK
0.89
0.87
0.79
0.89
0.98
0.79
0.79
-
0.93
0.55
VPL
0.78
0.86
0.70
0.90
0.92
0.72
0.93
0.93
-
0.64
GLTR
0.29
0.32
0.03
0.36
0.53
0.03
0.67
0.55
0.64
-
Asset
VTV
VV
IJS
VNQ
EFV
IJR
EEM
VGK
VPL
GLTR
VTV
-
0.92
0.90
0.81
0.89
0.91
0.70
0.89
0.83
0.25
VV
0.92
-
0.85
0.84
0.80
0.89
0.71
0.88
0.85
0.31
IJS
0.90
0.85
-
0.76
0.85
0.99
0.72
0.82
0.81
0.15
VNQ
0.81
0.84
0.76
-
0.72
0.79
0.64
0.79
0.73
0.30
EFV
0.89
0.80
0.85
0.72
-
0.83
0.81
0.96
0.90
0.30
IJR
0.91
0.89
0.99
0.79
0.83
-
0.73
0.84
0.83
0.18
EEM
0.70
0.71
0.72
0.64
0.81
0.73
-
0.81
0.86
0.45
VGK
0.89
0.88
0.82
0.79
0.96
0.84
0.81
-
0.91
0.39
VPL
0.83
0.85
0.81
0.73
0.90
0.83
0.86
0.91
-
0.35
GLTR
0.25
0.31
0.15
0.30
0.30
0.18
0.45
0.39
0.35
-
Asset
VTV
VV
IJS
VNQ
EFV
IJR
EEM
VGK
VPL
GLTR
VTV
-
0.93
0.88
0.68
0.85
0.88
0.66
0.84
0.78
0.15
VV
0.93
-
0.82
0.72
0.79
0.86
0.69
0.85
0.81
0.21
IJS
0.88
0.82
-
0.65
0.76
0.99
0.62
0.73
0.73
0.07
VNQ
0.68
0.72
0.65
-
0.57
0.67
0.52
0.63
0.61
0.25
EFV
0.85
0.79
0.76
0.57
-
0.75
0.79
0.96
0.88
0.22
IJR
0.88
0.86
0.99
0.67
0.75
-
0.62
0.74
0.74
0.08
EEM
0.66
0.69
0.62
0.52
0.79
0.62
-
0.77
0.86
0.39
VGK
0.84
0.85
0.73
0.63
0.96
0.74
0.77
-
0.86
0.29
VPL
0.78
0.81
0.73
0.61
0.88
0.74
0.86
0.86
-
0.25
GLTR
0.15
0.21
0.07
0.25
0.22
0.08
0.39
0.29
0.25
-
Asset
VTV
VV
IJS
VNQ
EFV
IJR
EEM
VGK
VPL
GLTR
VTV
-
0.95
0.85
0.64
0.81
0.80
0.70
0.83
0.67
0.37
VV
0.95
-
0.82
0.61
0.78
0.82
0.72
0.84
0.69
0.38
IJS
0.85
0.82
-
0.68
0.75
0.96
0.67
0.74
0.61
0.38
VNQ
0.64
0.61
0.68
-
0.61
0.64
0.51
0.59
0.49
0.38
EFV
0.81
0.78
0.75
0.61
-
0.72
0.77
0.94
0.84
0.47
IJR
0.80
0.82
0.96
0.64
0.72
-
0.69
0.74
0.64
0.40
EEM
0.70
0.72
0.67
0.51
0.77
0.69
-
0.77
0.75
0.61
VGK
0.83
0.84
0.74
0.59
0.94
0.74
0.77
-
0.73
0.44
VPL
0.67
0.69
0.61
0.49
0.84
0.64
0.75
0.73
-
0.49
GLTR
0.37
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.47
0.40
0.61
0.44
0.49
-
Asset
VTV
VV
IJS
VNQ
EFV
IJR
EEM
VGK
VPL
GLTR
VTV
-
0.95
0.86
0.64
0.84
0.82
0.69
0.80
0.60
0.29
VV
0.95
-
0.83
0.61
0.83
0.84
0.71
0.81
0.62
0.29
IJS
0.86
0.83
-
0.70
0.77
0.96
0.64
0.71
0.54
0.29
VNQ
0.64
0.61
0.70
-
0.60
0.66
0.49
0.57
0.44
0.30
EFV
0.84
0.83
0.77
0.60
-
0.75
0.73
0.90
0.74
0.37
IJR
0.82
0.84
0.96
0.66
0.75
-
0.66
0.72
0.56
0.30
EEM
0.69
0.71
0.64
0.49
0.73
0.66
-
0.71
0.62
0.40
VGK
0.80
0.81
0.71
0.57
0.90
0.72
0.71
-
0.71
0.37
VPL
0.60
0.62
0.54
0.44
0.74
0.56
0.62
0.71
-
0.38
GLTR
0.29
0.29
0.29
0.30
0.37
0.30
0.40
0.37
0.38
-

If you want to learn more about historical correlations, you can find out here how the main asset class are correlated to each other.

Capital Growth as of May 31, 2023

An investment of 1000$, since June 1993, now would be worth 12981.11$, with a total return of 1198.11% (8.92% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 6170.42$, with a net total return of 517.04% (6.25% annualized).
An investment of 1000$, since January 1976, now would be worth 208986.77$, with a total return of 20798.68% (11.93% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 38233.95$, with a net total return of 3723.40% (7.99% annualized).

Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

BILL BERNSTEIN SHELTERED SAM 100/0 PORTFOLIO
Drawdown periods
Updated to May 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months
-54.91% Nov 2007 Feb 2009 16 Dec 2012 46 62
-25.69% Feb 2001 Sep 2002 20 Oct 2003 13 33
-25.40% Jan 2020 Mar 2020 3 Nov 2020 8 11
-21.73% Jan 2022 Sep 2022 9 in progress 8 17
-19.86% May 1998 Aug 1998 4 Apr 1999 8 12
-13.05% Sep 2018 Dec 2018 4 Jul 2019 7 11
-10.21% Jun 2015 Feb 2016 9 Jul 2016 5 14
-7.66% Sep 2000 Nov 2000 3 Jan 2001 2 5
-7.23% Feb 1994 Mar 1994 2 Apr 1995 13 15
-6.09% Jun 2007 Jul 2007 2 Oct 2007 3 5
-5.22% Feb 2018 Mar 2018 2 Jul 2018 4 6
-4.88% Jan 2000 Feb 2000 2 Mar 2000 1 3
-4.83% Oct 1997 Oct 1997 1 Feb 1998 4 5
-4.76% Jun 1996 Jul 1996 2 Sep 1996 2 4
-4.74% Apr 2004 Apr 2004 1 Jun 2004 2 3
-4.45% Jul 1999 Sep 1999 3 Dec 1999 3 6
-4.34% Mar 2005 Apr 2005 2 Jun 2005 2 4
-3.93% Aug 1997 Aug 1997 1 Sep 1997 1 2
-3.80% May 2006 May 2006 1 Sep 2006 4 5
-3.76% Sep 2014 Sep 2014 1 Nov 2014 2 3
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months
-54.91% Nov 2007 Feb 2009 16 Dec 2012 46 62
-25.69% Feb 2001 Sep 2002 20 Oct 2003 13 33
-25.44% Sep 1987 Nov 1987 3 Jan 1989 14 17
-25.40% Jan 2020 Mar 2020 3 Nov 2020 8 11
-21.73% Jan 2022 Sep 2022 9 in progress 8 17
-19.86% May 1998 Aug 1998 4 Apr 1999 8 12
-17.87% Jan 1990 Sep 1990 9 Mar 1991 6 15
-14.00% Jul 1981 Jul 1982 13 Oct 1982 3 16
-13.05% Sep 2018 Dec 2018 4 Jul 2019 7 11
-12.26% Feb 1980 Mar 1980 2 Jun 1980 3 5
-10.21% Jun 2015 Feb 2016 9 Jul 2016 5 14
-9.70% Oct 1978 Oct 1978 1 Mar 1979 5 6
-8.19% Oct 1979 Oct 1979 1 Dec 1979 2 3
-7.66% Sep 2000 Nov 2000 3 Jan 2001 2 5
-7.23% Feb 1994 Mar 1994 2 Apr 1995 13 15
-6.32% Feb 1984 Jul 1984 6 Aug 1984 1 7
-6.09% Jun 2007 Jul 2007 2 Oct 2007 3 5
-5.31% Dec 1980 Jan 1981 2 Mar 1981 2 4
-5.22% Feb 2018 Mar 2018 2 Jul 2018 4 6
-4.93% Sep 1986 Sep 1986 1 Nov 1986 2 3

Rolling Returns ( more details)

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

BILL BERNSTEIN SHELTERED SAM 100/0 PORTFOLIO
Annualized Rolling Returns
Data Source: from January 1976 to May 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Rolling
Period
Annualized Return (%) Negative
Periods
Average Latest Best Worst
1 Year
13.01 -3.60 64.80
Mar 2009 - Feb 2010
-47.55
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009
20.97%
2 Years
12.54 -3.40 43.95
Mar 2009 - Feb 2011
-29.60
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009
9.16%
3 Years
12.32 11.37 35.58
Aug 1984 - Jul 1987
-16.64
Mar 2006 - Feb 2009
8.24%
5 Years
12.08 6.07 31.56
Aug 1982 - Jul 1987
-4.85
Mar 2004 - Feb 2009
2.75%
7 Years
12.02 8.39 24.56
Aug 1982 - Jul 1989
-0.40
Mar 2002 - Feb 2009
0.41%
10 Years
11.91 8.14 21.52
Sep 1977 - Aug 1987
1.21
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009
0.00%
15 Years
11.39 6.83 19.18
Aug 1982 - Jul 1997
5.08
Mar 1994 - Feb 2009
0.00%
20 Years
11.41 8.96 17.56
Apr 1978 - Mar 1998
6.03
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020
0.00%
30 Years
11.41 8.92 14.92
Jun 1977 - May 2007
8.79
Apr 1990 - Mar 2020
0.00%
Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods

If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Bill Bernstein Sheltered Sam 100/0 Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Considering all 10-year rolling periods, is there a relationship between past and future returns, at a given date?

In the following chart, we show how past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis) are related.

Neighboring data is aggregated and occurrences are indicated. It is possible to zoom by clicking or drawing the desired area

BILL BERNSTEIN SHELTERED SAM 100/0 PORTFOLIO
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Updated to May 2023

The annualized return of the last 10 years has been 8.14% (updated at May 31, 2023).

Seasonality

In which months is it better to invest in Bill Bernstein Sheltered Sam 100/0 Portfolio?

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.

For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Gain Frequency
2.18
60%
-1.13
40%
-2.04
60%
2.28
80%
-0.36
60%
0.08
60%
2.84
100%
0.43
60%
-2.71
20%
1.53
60%
4.27
80%
0.23
60%
 Capital Growth on monthly avg returns
100
102.18
101.02
98.96
101.22
100.85
100.93
103.79
104.24
101.41
102.96
107.35
107.60
Best 8.7
2019
4.7
2021
4.4
2021
10.2
2020
3.8
2020
6.3
2019
6.3
2022
4.8
2020
3.1
2019
8.6
2022
12.8
2020
5.4
2021
Worst -3.6
2022
-8.3
2020
-16.7
2020
-6.2
2022
-6.1
2019
-8.1
2022
0.0
2021
-4.0
2022
-9.2
2022
-6.8
2018
-2.8
2021
-8.3
2018
Monthly Seasonality over the period Jun 2018 - May 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Gain Frequency
0.61
50%
0.14
50%
-0.23
60%
1.52
90%
0.27
80%
0.17
60%
2.38
90%
-0.42
50%
-1.22
40%
2.10
70%
3.12
90%
0.45
70%
 Capital Growth on monthly avg returns
100
100.61
100.76
100.53
102.06
102.34
102.51
104.96
104.51
103.24
105.41
108.70
109.19
Best 8.7
2019
4.7
2014
7.8
2016
10.2
2020
3.8
2020
6.3
2019
6.3
2022
4.8
2020
4.5
2013
8.6
2022
12.8
2020
5.4
2021
Worst -5.0
2016
-8.3
2020
-16.7
2020
-6.2
2022
-6.1
2019
-8.1
2022
-1.9
2014
-5.9
2015
-9.2
2022
-6.8
2018
-2.8
2021
-8.3
2018
Monthly Seasonality over the period Jun 2013 - May 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Gain Frequency
1.39
63%
0.49
60%
1.22
71%
2.11
81%
0.82
67%
0.58
60%
1.14
62%
0.50
60%
-0.37
60%
0.39
62%
2.02
74%
2.11
81%
 Capital Growth on monthly avg returns
100
101.39
101.89
103.14
105.32
106.18
106.80
108.03
108.56
108.16
108.58
110.78
113.12
Best 12.9
1976
7.5
1991
8.5
2009
14.6
2009
7.4
1990
6.3
2019
9.3
2009
11.2
1982
8.9
2010
11.8
2011
12.8
2020
10.0
1991
Worst -11.9
2009
-12.3
2009
-16.7
2020
-6.2
2022
-8.3
2010
-8.7
2008
-10.5
2002
-15.4
1998
-9.8
2001
-21.1
1987
-9.8
2008
-8.3
2018
Monthly Seasonality over the period Jan 1976 - May 2023

Monthly/Yearly Returns

Bill Bernstein Sheltered Sam 100/0 Portfolio data source starts from January 1976: let's focus on monthly and yearly returns.

We are providing two different views:
  • Histogram: it shows the distribution of the returns recorded so far
  • Plain Table: it shows the detailed monthly and yearly returns
MONTHLY RETURNS HISTOGRAM
Jan 1976 - May 2023
379 Positive Months (67%) - 190 Negative Months (33%)
MONTHLY RETURNS TABLE
Jan 1976 - May 2023
(Scroll down to see all data)
Swipe left to see all data
Yearly Return(%)
Monthly Return(%)
Year Total Infl.Adj Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2023
+1.39 -0.81 7.3 -3.3 -0.2 0.8 -2.8
2022
-12.59 -17.89 -3.6 -1.3 2.1 -6.2 0.9 -8.1 6.3 -4.0 -9.2 8.6 7.1 -4.0
2021
+23.26 +15.16 0.9 4.7 4.4 3.6 2.4 0.0 0.0 1.9 -3.7 4.7 -2.8 5.4
2020
+7.92 +6.47 -2.4 -8.3 -16.7 10.2 3.8 2.0 4.4 4.8 -3.3 -1.2 12.8 5.1
2019
+25.10 +22.31 8.7 2.6 0.2 3.0 -6.1 6.3 0.5 -2.1 3.1 2.3 2.1 2.9
2018
-8.54 -10.26 3.6 -4.7 -0.6 0.7 1.6 0.2 3.0 1.5 -0.4 -6.8 2.2 -8.3
2017
+18.07 +15.63 1.4 2.7 0.2 0.8 0.5 1.4 2.0 -0.3 3.0 1.5 2.6 1.1
2016
+14.96 +12.63 -5.0 0.0 7.8 1.3 0.5 1.3 4.1 0.1 0.3 -2.4 4.1 2.6
2015
-2.58 -3.28 -1.6 4.3 -0.6 0.5 0.5 -2.1 0.5 -5.9 -2.6 7.0 0.1 -2.0
2014
+8.93 +8.11 -3.2 4.7 1.1 0.5 1.5 2.4 -1.9 2.9 -3.8 3.3 1.2 0.1
2013
+25.60 +23.74 4.9 0.5 3.1 2.3 0.4 -1.7 5.0 -3.1 4.5 4.0 1.8 1.6
2012
+16.72 +14.73 5.9 3.2 2.2 -1.0 -7.2 5.0 0.6 2.5 2.5 -0.9 0.7 2.8
2011
-1.94 -4.76 1.6 4.0 0.2 3.9 -1.7 -1.9 -1.8 -6.4 -9.6 11.8 -0.9 0.7
2010
+18.03 +16.29 -3.8 3.0 7.1 2.4 -8.3 -5.2 8.0 -4.4 8.9 3.8 -0.7 7.7
2009
+28.40 +25.00 -11.9 -12.3 8.5 14.6 7.2 -0.8 9.3 4.8 4.5 -3.5 5.5 3.2
2008
-36.97 -37.02 -5.1 -2.2 0.3 4.8 1.6 -8.7 -0.9 0.6 -7.7 -20.7 -9.8 5.8
2007
+2.63 -1.39 2.1 -1.3 1.4 3.2 3.4 -2.0 -4.2 1.4 4.1 2.6 -5.7 -1.7
2006
+22.83 +19.78 5.9 0.0 3.2 1.9 -3.8 0.8 0.6 2.3 1.3 4.4 2.9 1.6
2005
+11.09 +7.42 -2.9 3.7 -2.4 -2.0 3.2 2.2 4.5 -0.3 2.4 -2.9 4.0 1.5
2004
+19.02 +15.27 1.9 2.1 0.8 -4.7 1.8 3.1 -2.8 1.7 2.4 2.3 6.2 3.4
2003
+37.23 +34.70 -2.8 -2.2 -0.3 8.2 7.1 2.3 3.2 3.1 0.2 6.3 2.4 5.2
2002
-13.43 -15.44 -0.9 0.0 5.9 -1.0 0.3 -5.1 -10.5 0.7 -9.0 4.0 5.6 -3.0
2001
-5.06 -6.51 3.8 -5.8 -5.1 7.0 1.1 -0.9 -1.9 -2.5 -9.8 1.5 6.2 2.8
2000
+2.19 -1.16 -4.3 -0.6 5.7 -1.6 -1.1 2.1 0.3 4.3 -2.0 -1.0 -4.8 6.1
1999
+17.38 +14.31 0.7 -3.4 3.4 7.8 -1.7 4.6 -1.6 -1.6 -1.3 2.4 1.7 5.7
1998
+8.80 +7.07 0.2 6.2 4.3 0.6 -2.9 0.3 -2.8 -15.4 5.2 7.0 4.8 3.2
1997
+20.21 +18.19 2.3 1.0 -2.8 1.8 6.5 4.4 5.3 -3.9 6.1 -4.8 1.4 2.0
1996
+19.51 +15.67 2.7 1.0 1.6 2.0 1.8 -0.6 -4.2 2.9 3.4 1.4 5.7 0.5
1995
+25.90 +22.78 -0.7 2.8 2.7 2.9 2.9 1.5 4.0 0.2 2.5 -2.4 3.9 3.1
1994
-1.11 -3.68 4.3 -2.6 -4.7 2.0 0.5 -1.9 2.6 3.7 -2.5 0.9 -4.4 1.6
1993
+25.63 +22.27 3.1 2.5 5.0 0.2 2.0 1.2 2.1 3.4 0.0 2.5 -3.1 4.6
1992
+9.73 +6.64 1.8 1.0 -1.8 2.3 2.6 -2.5 2.8 -1.6 0.6 -0.4 2.8 2.0
1991
+31.84 +27.92 5.1 7.5 2.3 1.1 3.9 -4.6 3.8 2.1 0.2 1.9 -4.3 10.0
1990
-11.83 -16.91 -5.9 0.2 0.6 -3.3 7.4 -0.6 0.2 -9.9 -7.1 0.3 4.8 2.1
1989
+26.34 +20.72 5.8 -0.7 1.1 4.2 2.8 -0.3 6.5 2.5 0.9 -3.6 2.1 2.8
1988
+20.88 +15.77 4.9 5.0 -0.5 1.5 0.0 4.9 0.0 -2.7 3.0 2.2 -0.7 1.8
1987
+3.74 -0.67 11.5 3.7 2.8 0.1 -0.2 3.3 4.6 3.2 -1.4 -21.1 -4.1 5.1
1986
+26.09 +24.72 2.2 7.3 6.1 0.1 3.1 2.6 -3.5 7.3 -4.9 3.1 2.1 -1.3
1985
+35.09 +30.14 7.8 2.2 1.3 0.7 5.3 2.0 0.4 -0.2 -2.9 4.4 6.0 4.0
1984
+7.75 +3.66 0.8 -2.7 1.2 0.5 -4.7 1.6 -2.2 10.1 1.5 0.2 -0.2 2.2
1983
+26.03 +21.43 4.2 2.3 4.5 7.6 0.9 2.8 -1.9 1.0 1.3 -1.3 2.8 -0.3
1982
+18.67 +14.30 -2.1 -4.0 -0.9 3.7 -3.1 -2.4 -2.2 11.2 1.5 11.3 4.5 1.2
1981
-0.04 -8.23 -2.5 1.7 4.5 -0.7 0.8 0.1 -0.8 -4.8 -5.0 5.2 4.4 -2.2
1980
+28.25 +13.98 7.2 0.0 -12.2 4.7 5.8 4.2 5.9 1.9 1.9 2.5 7.9 -2.9
1979
+25.49 +10.77 5.2 -2.1 6.2 0.8 -1.1 5.1 2.2 6.8 0.4 -8.2 5.5 3.3
1978
+14.91 +5.41 -3.9 0.4 4.2 6.9 2.1 -0.6 5.5 4.9 0.3 -9.7 2.6 2.4
1977
+7.35 +0.61 -1.2 -0.5 0.0 1.6 -0.4 5.0 -0.6 -1.1 0.9 -2.3 4.5 1.4
1976
+29.03 +23.04 12.9 1.7 1.9 -0.7 -1.8 4.4 -0.4 -0.1 2.4 -1.7 1.6 6.5

Portofolio Returns, up to December 2010, are simulated. They have been calculated using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.

In particular, it has been used:

  • VTV - Vanguard Value: simulated historical serie, up to December 2004
  • VV - Vanguard Large-Cap: simulated historical serie, up to December 2004
  • IJS - iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value: simulated historical serie, up to December 2000
  • VNQ - Vanguard Real Estate: simulated historical serie, up to December 2004
  • EFV - iShares MSCI EAFE Value: simulated historical serie, up to December 2005
  • IJR - iShares Core S&P Small-Cap: simulated historical serie, up to December 2000
  • EEM - iShares MSCI Emerging Markets: simulated historical serie, up to December 2003
  • VGK - Vanguard FTSE Europe: simulated historical serie, up to December 2005
  • VPL - Vanguard FTSE Pacific: simulated historical serie, up to December 2005
  • GLTR - Aberdeen Standard Physical Precious Metals Basket Shares: simulated historical serie, up to December 2010

Portfolio efficiency

Compared to the Bill Bernstein Sheltered Sam 100/0 Portfolio, the following portfolios granted a higher return over 30 Years and a less severe drawdown at the same time.

Swipe left to see all data
30 Years Stats (%)
% Allocation
Portfolio Author Return Dev.Std Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm
US Stocks Momentum +11.80 15.15 -53.85 100 0 0
Stocks/Bonds 80/20 Momentum +10.63 12.22 -43.61 80 20 0
US Stocks +9.70 15.36 -50.84 100 0 0
US Stocks Minimum Volatility +9.47 13.67 -43.27 100 0 0
Warren Buffett Portfolio Warren Buffett +9.33 13.50 -45.52 90 10 0
Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Momentum +9.28 9.43 -32.52 60 40 0
Sheltered Sam 100/0 Bill Bernstein +8.92 15.16 -54.91 97 0 3

Here's a list containing the Best Classic Portfolios, with the highest returns over 30 Years and Very High Risk categorization.

Swipe left to see all data
30 Years Stats (%)
% Allocation
Portfolio Author Return Dev.Std Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm
Technology +13.50 23.92 -81.08 100 0 0
US Stocks Momentum +11.80 15.15 -53.85 100 0 0
Stocks/Bonds 80/20 Momentum +10.63 12.22 -43.61 80 20 0
US Stocks +9.70 15.36 -50.84 100 0 0
US Stocks Value +9.50 15.19 -55.41 100 0 0