When holding the Xtrackers S&P 500 Equal Weight (XDEW.DE) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?
Over the selected period (~54 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 132 months (from March 1998 to February 2009).
This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 133 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.
Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.
Xtrackers S&P 500 Equal Weight (XDEW.DE) ETF: Historical Returns
Previous vs subsequent Returns
Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?
The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).
Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.
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As of Sep 30, 2024, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 11.75%.
Rolling Returns
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
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Rolling Period Analysis
By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.
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Worst | Median | Best | Negative Periods |
---|---|---|---|
-37.45%
Jan 2008 - Dec 2008 |
+12.20% |
+88.49%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1983 |
23.50%
149 out of 634 |
-38.43%
Jan 2008 - Dec 2008 |
+9.10% |
+83.25%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1983 |
29.65%
188 out of 634 |
-28.98%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009 |
+12.74% |
+51.22%
Feb 1982 - Jan 1984 |
17.36%
108 out of 622 |
-32.30%
Jan 1973 - Dec 1974 |
+10.36% |
+46.31%
Feb 1982 - Jan 1984 |
22.99%
143 out of 622 |
-19.99%
Mar 2006 - Feb 2009 |
+13.34% |
+49.14%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1983 |
15.74%
96 out of 610 |
-23.16%
Oct 1971 - Sep 1974 |
+10.17% |
+42.31%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1983 |
19.34%
118 out of 610 |
-11.54%
Jan 1971 - Dec 1974 |
+12.79% |
+41.62%
Jan 1980 - Dec 1983 |
10.03%
60 out of 598 |
-16.82%
Jan 1971 - Dec 1974 |
+9.75% |
+35.05%
Jan 1980 - Dec 1983 |
17.22%
103 out of 598 |
-7.65%
Mar 2004 - Feb 2009 |
+12.50% |
+39.42%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1985 |
3.58%
21 out of 586 |
-9.58%
Mar 2004 - Feb 2009 |
+9.70% |
+33.91%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1985 |
14.16%
83 out of 586 |
-2.26%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2008 |
+12.20% |
+36.92%
Mar 1979 - Feb 1985 |
2.26%
13 out of 574 |
-4.78%
Nov 1972 - Oct 1978 |
+9.42% |
+31.14%
Mar 1979 - Feb 1985 |
11.32%
65 out of 574 |
-7.04%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2009 |
+12.38% |
+32.76%
Mar 1978 - Feb 1985 |
2.67%
15 out of 562 |
-8.95%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2009 |
+9.55% |
+27.44%
Mar 1978 - Feb 1985 |
9.43%
53 out of 562 |
-5.34%
Mar 2001 - Feb 2009 |
+12.60% |
+27.67%
Nov 1978 - Oct 1986 |
4.00%
22 out of 550 |
-7.33%
Mar 2001 - Feb 2009 |
+10.45% |
+23.39%
Nov 1978 - Oct 1986 |
8.18%
45 out of 550 |
-4.02%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2009 |
+12.57% |
+28.70%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1983 |
2.79%
15 out of 538 |
-6.02%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2009 |
+10.38% |
+23.24%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1983 |
6.13%
33 out of 538 |
-0.87%
Apr 1999 - Mar 2009 |
+12.98% |
+27.94%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1984 |
0.95%
5 out of 526 |
-2.92%
Apr 1999 - Mar 2009 |
+10.77% |
+22.72%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1984 |
5.51%
29 out of 526 |
-0.42%
Mar 1998 - Feb 2009 |
+13.44% |
+25.45%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1985 |
0.39%
2 out of 514 |
-2.35%
Mar 1998 - Feb 2009 |
+10.92% |
+20.70%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1985 |
2.33%
12 out of 514 |
+2.13%
Mar 1997 - Feb 2009 |
+13.54% |
+23.31%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1986 |
0.00%
0 out of 502 |
+0.04%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2012 |
+10.94% |
+18.93%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1986 |
0.00%
0 out of 502 |
+3.67%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2013 |
+13.42% |
+23.84%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1987 |
0.00%
0 out of 490 |
+1.58%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2013 |
+10.73% |
+19.74%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1987 |
0.00%
0 out of 490 |
+4.72%
Oct 1997 - Sep 2011 |
+13.55% |
+21.14%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1988 |
0.00%
0 out of 478 |
+2.68%
Oct 1997 - Sep 2011 |
+10.60% |
+17.29%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1988 |
0.00%
0 out of 478 |
+5.19%
Mar 1994 - Feb 2009 |
+12.96% |
+21.72%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1989 |
0.00%
0 out of 466 |
+3.14%
Mar 1994 - Feb 2009 |
+10.01% |
+17.89%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1989 |
0.00%
0 out of 466 |
+5.88%
Mar 1993 - Feb 2009 |
+12.33% |
+18.66%
Feb 1978 - Jan 1994 |
0.00%
0 out of 454 |
+3.75%
Mar 1993 - Feb 2009 |
+9.32% |
+15.68%
Apr 1982 - Mar 1998 |
0.00%
0 out of 454 |
+6.19%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2017 |
+11.54% |
+19.94%
Aug 1980 - Jul 1997 |
0.00%
0 out of 442 |
+4.41%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2017 |
+9.09% |
+16.72%
Aug 1980 - Jul 1997 |
0.00%
0 out of 442 |
+6.29%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2020 |
+11.19% |
+20.22%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1998 |
0.00%
0 out of 430 |
+4.64%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2020 |
+8.81% |
+17.02%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1998 |
0.00%
0 out of 430 |
+6.51%
Apr 2001 - Mar 2020 |
+11.16% |
+19.84%
Mar 1979 - Feb 1998 |
0.00%
0 out of 418 |
+4.80%
Apr 2001 - Mar 2020 |
+8.80% |
+16.44%
Mar 1979 - Feb 1998 |
0.00%
0 out of 418 |
+6.25%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2020 |
+11.37% |
+20.00%
Sep 1980 - Aug 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 406 |
+4.56%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020 |
+8.75% |
+17.00%
Sep 1980 - Aug 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 406 |
+7.98%
Feb 1984 - Jan 2009 |
+11.58% |
+19.26%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1999 |
0.00%
0 out of 346 |
+5.73%
Mar 1984 - Feb 2009 |
+9.40% |
+15.83%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1999 |
0.00%
0 out of 346 |
+10.30%
Sep 1983 - Aug 2013 |
+12.01% |
+16.39%
Oct 1974 - Sep 2004 |
0.00%
0 out of 286 |
+8.02%
Sep 1983 - Aug 2013 |
+9.67% |
+13.15%
Oct 1974 - Sep 2004 |
0.00%
0 out of 286 |
Xtrackers S&P 500 Equal Weight (XDEW.DE) ETF: Historical Returns