Vanguard Total Stock Market (VTI): Rolling Returns

Data Source: from January 1871 to April 2024 (~153 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 30 April 2024

Holding the Vanguard Total Stock Market (VTI) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to obtain a positive return?

Considering all the available data source (~153 years), the longest period with a negative return lasted 188 months (from November 1916 to June 1932).

This means that every rolling period of 189 months or above has always granted a positive return.

To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the Vanguard Total Stock Market (VTI) ETF: Historical Returns page.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Considering all 10-year rolling periods, is there a relationship between past and future returns, at a given date?

In the following chart, we show how past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis) are related.

Neighboring data is aggregated and occurrences are indicated. It is possible to zoom by clicking or drawing the desired area

VANGUARD TOTAL STOCK MARKET (VTI) ETF
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Updated to April 2024

The annualized return of the last 10 years has been 11.72% (updated at Apr 30, 2024).

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

VANGUARD TOTAL STOCK MARKET (VTI) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 May 1994 - 30 April 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 30 April 2024 (~153 years)
Inflation Adjusted:

Annualized Rolling Returns - 1 Year (12 months)

Swipe left to see all data
Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +11.00% +164.11%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1933
-67.90%
Jul 1931 - Jun 1932
27.01%
494 out of 1829
US Inflation Adjusted +8.95% +182.83%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1933
-64.35%
Jul 1931 - Jun 1932
30.73%
562 out of 1829
1 Year Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
1 Year Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 2 Years (24 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.03% +59.68%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1934
-55.42%
Jun 1930 - May 1932
19.59%
356 out of 1817
US Inflation Adjusted +7.43% +60.87%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1934
-50.48%
Jun 1930 - May 1932
24.77%
450 out of 1817
2 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
2 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 3 Years (36 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.00% +45.34%
Mar 1933 - Feb 1936
-43.81%
Jul 1929 - Jun 1932
15.84%
286 out of 1805
US Inflation Adjusted +7.53% +41.38%
Mar 1933 - Feb 1936
-39.36%
Jul 1929 - Jun 1932
20.66%
373 out of 1805
3 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
3 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 4 Years (48 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +9.78% +43.64%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1936
-29.44%
Jun 1928 - May 1932
12.83%
230 out of 1793
US Inflation Adjusted +7.43% +43.11%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1936
-25.31%
Jun 1928 - May 1932
18.63%
334 out of 1793
4 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
4 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 5 Years (60 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +9.93% +37.25%
Jun 1932 - May 1937
-19.58%
Jun 1927 - May 1932
10.05%
179 out of 1781
US Inflation Adjusted +7.31% +35.89%
Jun 1932 - May 1937
-15.64%
Jun 1927 - May 1932
17.63%
314 out of 1781
5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 6 Years (72 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +9.64% +29.19%
Sep 1923 - Aug 1929
-13.44%
Jul 1926 - Jun 1932
5.82%
103 out of 1769
US Inflation Adjusted +7.36% +28.94%
Sep 1923 - Aug 1929
-10.90%
Oct 1968 - Sep 1974
14.75%
261 out of 1769
6 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
6 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 7 Years (84 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +9.41% +24.63%
Feb 1922 - Jan 1929
-9.49%
Jul 1925 - Jun 1932
4.15%
73 out of 1757
US Inflation Adjusted +7.13% +24.42%
Feb 1922 - Jan 1929
-8.51%
Oct 1967 - Sep 1974
12.64%
222 out of 1757
7 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
7 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 8 Years (96 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.99% +27.00%
Sep 1921 - Aug 1929
-7.94%
Apr 1930 - Mar 1938
3.09%
54 out of 1745
US Inflation Adjusted +6.76% +27.36%
Sep 1921 - Aug 1929
-5.88%
Aug 1912 - Jul 1920
11.17%
195 out of 1745
8 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
8 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 9 Years (108 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.83% +21.87%
Sep 1920 - Aug 1929
-7.16%
Apr 1929 - Mar 1938
2.48%
43 out of 1733
US Inflation Adjusted +7.08% +24.06%
Sep 1920 - Aug 1929
-7.20%
Mar 2000 - Feb 2009
11.37%
197 out of 1733
9 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
9 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 10 Years (120 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.86% +20.50%
Jun 1949 - May 1959
-5.29%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1939
2.91%
50 out of 1721
US Inflation Adjusted +7.06% +19.53%
Sep 1919 - Aug 1929
-4.93%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009
10.05%
173 out of 1721
10 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
10 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 11 Years (132 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.93% +19.24%
Sep 1918 - Aug 1929
-4.59%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1940
2.05%
35 out of 1709
US Inflation Adjusted +7.16% +17.98%
Sep 1918 - Aug 1929
-3.49%
Mar 1998 - Feb 2009
10.18%
174 out of 1709
11 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
11 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 12 Years (144 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.78% +18.79%
Jun 1949 - May 1961
-3.80%
May 1930 - Apr 1942
1.83%
31 out of 1697
US Inflation Adjusted +7.14% +16.61%
Jun 1949 - May 1961
-3.36%
May 1930 - Apr 1942
8.37%
142 out of 1697
12 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
12 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution