Vanguard Total International Bond (BNDX) to EUR Hedged: Rolling Returns

Simulation Settings
Category:
Period: January 1985 - January 2025 (~40 years)
Currency: EUR
BNDX is not denominated in EUR. Returns are simulated using exchange rates or interest rate differentials in case of currency hedging.
Inflation: Eurozone
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This asset allocation includes ETFs not denominated in EUR. Returns are calculated using exchange rates or, if applicable, interest rate differentials for currency hedging.

When holding the Vanguard Total International Bond (BNDX) to EUR Hedged ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~40 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 110 months (from September 2014 to October 2023).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 111 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?

The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).

Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.

VANGUARD TOTAL INTERNATIONAL BOND (BNDX) TO EUR HEDGED ETF
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Time Period: 1 February 1995 - 31 January 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1985 - 31 January 2025 (~40 years)

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As of Jan 31, 2025, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 0.43%.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

VANGUARD TOTAL INTERNATIONAL BOND (BNDX) TO EUR HEDGED ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 February 1995 - 31 January 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1985 - 31 January 2025 (~40 years)
Eurozone Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

VANGUARD TOTAL INTERNATIONAL BOND (BNDX) TO EUR HEDGED ETF
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 January 1985 - 31 January 2025 (~40 years)
Eurozone Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-14.08%
Jan 2022 - Dec 2022
+5.44% +28.70%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1986
16.38%
77 out of 470
-21.78%
Oct 2021 - Sep 2022
+3.37% +28.39%
May 1985 - Apr 1986
28.72%
135 out of 470
-8.60%
Jan 2021 - Dec 2022
+5.31% +23.14%
Aug 1991 - Jul 1993
9.61%
44 out of 458
-14.63%
Jan 2021 - Dec 2022
+3.90% +20.42%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1987
17.69%
81 out of 458
-5.44%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2023
+5.68% +22.33%
Nov 1990 - Oct 1993
8.07%
36 out of 446
-10.63%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2023
+3.84% +18.17%
Nov 1990 - Oct 1993
11.88%
53 out of 446
-3.72%
Oct 2019 - Sep 2023
+5.87% +18.51%
Feb 1990 - Jan 1994
7.83%
34 out of 434
-7.66%
Oct 2019 - Sep 2023
+4.01% +14.29%
Feb 1990 - Jan 1994
10.83%
47 out of 434
-1.69%
Jan 2018 - Dec 2022
+5.98% +15.86%
Jan 1989 - Dec 1993
8.06%
34 out of 422
-5.29%
Sep 2019 - Aug 2024
+4.14% +11.97%
Dec 1990 - Nov 1995
10.66%
45 out of 422
-1.57%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2022
+5.96% +14.30%
May 1990 - Apr 1996
7.32%
30 out of 410
-4.48%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2023
+4.02% +10.93%
Nov 1990 - Oct 1996
9.02%
37 out of 410
-1.28%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2023
+5.99% +13.16%
Jan 1989 - Dec 1995
5.78%
23 out of 398
-4.24%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2023
+3.92% +9.62%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1992
9.30%
37 out of 398
-0.51%
Mar 2015 - Feb 2023
+6.07% +13.30%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1993
5.44%
21 out of 386
-3.23%
Jul 2016 - Jun 2024
+4.03% +10.80%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1993
9.07%
35 out of 386
-0.08%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2023
+6.03% +13.56%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1993
0.27%
1 out of 374
-2.46%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2023
+4.09% +10.94%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1993
9.36%
35 out of 374
+0.41%
Mar 2013 - Feb 2023
+5.98% +11.73%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1995
0.00%
0 out of 362
-2.11%
Feb 2015 - Jan 2025
+4.11% +9.15%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1995
9.12%
33 out of 362
+0.53%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2023
+5.79% +12.27%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1995
0.00%
0 out of 350
-1.53%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2023
+3.98% +9.64%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1995
8.57%
30 out of 350
+1.10%
Jan 2013 - Dec 2024
+5.90% +11.54%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1996
0.00%
0 out of 338
-1.01%
Feb 2013 - Jan 2025
+3.99% +8.96%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1996
8.58%
29 out of 338
+1.65%
Nov 2010 - Oct 2023
+5.96% +10.37%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1998
0.00%
0 out of 326
-0.54%
Nov 2010 - Oct 2023
+3.91% +7.95%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1998
5.21%
17 out of 326
+2.10%
Sep 2010 - Aug 2024
+5.85% +10.62%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1999
0.00%
0 out of 314
-0.11%
Sep 2010 - Aug 2024
+3.97% +8.31%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1999
1.27%
4 out of 314
+2.59%
Feb 2010 - Jan 2025
+6.02% +9.71%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2000
0.00%
0 out of 302
+0.38%
Feb 2010 - Jan 2025
+4.06% +7.43%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2000
0.00%
0 out of 302
+2.98%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2024
+6.00% +9.69%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2001
0.00%
0 out of 290
+0.92%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2023
+4.01% +7.42%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2001
0.00%
0 out of 290
+2.94%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023
+6.11% +9.66%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2002
0.00%
0 out of 278
+0.80%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023
+4.08% +7.38%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2002
0.00%
0 out of 278
+2.85%
Oct 2005 - Sep 2023
+6.09% +9.81%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2003
0.00%
0 out of 266
+0.73%
Oct 2005 - Sep 2023
+4.06% +7.51%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2003
0.00%
0 out of 266
+2.94%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2023
+6.05% +9.48%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2004
0.00%
0 out of 254
+0.81%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2023
+4.17% +7.22%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2004
0.00%
0 out of 254
+3.07%
Oct 2003 - Sep 2023
+5.84% +9.25%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2005
0.00%
0 out of 242
+0.93%
Oct 2003 - Sep 2023
+4.00% +6.99%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2005
0.00%
0 out of 242
+3.65%
Nov 1998 - Oct 2023
+6.16% +8.37%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2010
0.00%
0 out of 182
+1.51%
Nov 1998 - Oct 2023
+4.26% +6.17%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2010
0.00%
0 out of 182
+4.01%
Nov 1993 - Oct 2023
+6.73% +8.12%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2015
0.00%
0 out of 122
+1.89%
Nov 1993 - Oct 2023
+4.64% +6.03%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2015
0.00%
0 out of 122
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