Vanguard Total International Bond (BNDX): Rolling Returns

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Period: January 1985 - May 2025 (~40 years)
Currency: USD
Inflation: US
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When holding the Vanguard Total International Bond (BNDX) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~40 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 77 months (from August 2016 to December 2022).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 78 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?

The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).

Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.

VANGUARD TOTAL INTERNATIONAL BOND (BNDX) ETF
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Time Period: 1 June 1995 - 31 May 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1985 - 31 May 2025 (~40 years)

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As of May 31, 2025, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 2.02%.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

VANGUARD TOTAL INTERNATIONAL BOND (BNDX) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 June 1995 - 31 May 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1985 - 31 May 2025 (~40 years)
US Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

VANGUARD TOTAL INTERNATIONAL BOND (BNDX) ETF
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 January 1985 - 31 May 2025 (~40 years)
US Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-13.01%
Oct 2021 - Sep 2022
+5.94% +31.75%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1986
12.24%
58 out of 474
-19.60%
Oct 2021 - Sep 2022
+3.20% +29.20%
May 1985 - Apr 1986
26.16%
124 out of 474
-7.67%
Jan 2021 - Dec 2022
+5.88% +22.63%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1987
6.49%
30 out of 462
-13.54%
Jan 2021 - Dec 2022
+3.42% +19.57%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1987
14.94%
69 out of 462
-4.35%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2023
+6.14% +17.37%
Nov 1990 - Oct 1993
7.56%
34 out of 450
-9.52%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2023
+3.68% +14.00%
Nov 1990 - Oct 1993
11.33%
51 out of 450
-2.63%
Oct 2019 - Sep 2023
+6.16% +14.73%
Feb 1990 - Jan 1994
6.85%
30 out of 438
-6.94%
Oct 2019 - Sep 2023
+3.73% +10.86%
Feb 1990 - Jan 1994
10.05%
44 out of 438
-0.52%
Sep 2019 - Aug 2024
+6.26% +13.50%
Jan 1989 - Dec 1993
3.05%
13 out of 426
-4.50%
Sep 2019 - Aug 2024
+3.97% +9.22%
Jan 1989 - Dec 1993
10.33%
44 out of 426
-0.16%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2022
+6.43% +12.92%
Oct 1987 - Sep 1993
0.24%
1 out of 414
-3.53%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2022
+4.04% +8.59%
Oct 1987 - Sep 1993
9.90%
41 out of 414
+0.18%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2023
+6.32% +13.10%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1991
0.00%
0 out of 402
-3.23%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2023
+3.93% +8.82%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1991
10.20%
41 out of 402
+0.78%
Mar 2015 - Feb 2023
+6.30% +13.47%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1993
0.00%
0 out of 390
-2.29%
Mar 2015 - Feb 2023
+3.94% +9.34%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1993
9.74%
38 out of 390
+1.20%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2023
+6.23% +13.33%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1993
0.00%
0 out of 378
-1.68%
May 2015 - Apr 2024
+3.93% +9.28%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1993
10.05%
38 out of 378
+1.47%
Jan 2013 - Dec 2022
+6.18% +11.30%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1995
0.00%
0 out of 366
-1.35%
Apr 2015 - Mar 2025
+3.85% +7.47%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1995
9.84%
36 out of 366
+1.60%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2023
+6.23% +11.96%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1995
0.00%
0 out of 354
-0.98%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2023
+3.79% +8.18%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1995
9.04%
32 out of 354
+2.13%
Apr 2013 - Mar 2025
+6.12% +11.33%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1996
0.00%
0 out of 342
-0.55%
Apr 2013 - Mar 2025
+3.82% +7.59%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1996
6.14%
21 out of 342
+2.48%
Nov 2010 - Oct 2023
+6.20% +10.25%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1998
0.00%
0 out of 330
-0.17%
Oct 2010 - Sep 2023
+3.73% +6.74%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1998
1.21%
4 out of 330
+2.94%
Sep 2010 - Aug 2024
+6.25% +10.60%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1999
0.00%
0 out of 318
+0.28%
Sep 2010 - Aug 2024
+3.74% +7.20%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1999
0.00%
0 out of 318
+3.27%
Jun 2010 - May 2025
+6.20% +9.89%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2000
0.00%
0 out of 306
+0.63%
Jun 2010 - May 2025
+3.81% +6.50%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2000
0.00%
0 out of 306
+3.51%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2024
+6.29% +10.00%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2001
0.00%
0 out of 294
+1.08%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2023
+3.86% +6.59%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2001
0.00%
0 out of 294
+3.52%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023
+6.34% +9.92%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2002
0.00%
0 out of 282
+0.99%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023
+3.83% +6.63%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2002
0.00%
0 out of 282
+3.53%
Oct 2005 - Sep 2023
+6.33% +9.98%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2003
0.00%
0 out of 270
+1.06%
Oct 2005 - Sep 2023
+3.85% +6.69%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2003
0.00%
0 out of 270
+3.65%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2023
+6.36% +9.59%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2004
0.00%
0 out of 258
+1.08%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2023
+3.97% +6.39%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2004
0.00%
0 out of 258
+3.70%
Mar 2003 - Feb 2023
+6.18% +9.35%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2005
0.00%
0 out of 246
+1.11%
Oct 2003 - Sep 2023
+3.87% +6.15%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2005
0.00%
0 out of 246
+4.29%
Nov 1998 - Oct 2023
+6.23% +8.56%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2010
0.00%
0 out of 186
+1.69%
Nov 1998 - Oct 2023
+3.92% +5.50%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2010
0.00%
0 out of 186
+4.58%
Nov 1993 - Oct 2023
+6.73% +8.24%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2015
0.00%
0 out of 126
+2.00%
Nov 1993 - Oct 2023
+4.18% +5.41%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2015
0.00%
0 out of 126
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