Vanguard Total Bond Market (BND) to EUR Hedged: Rolling Returns

Simulation Settings

Category:

Period: January 1950 - February 2026 (~76 years)

Initial Amount: 1€

Currency: EUR

BND is not denominated in EUR. Returns are simulated using exchange rates or interest rate differentials in case of currency hedging.

Inflation: Eurozone

(Change Settings)

This asset allocation includes ETFs not denominated in EUR. Returns are calculated using exchange rates or, if applicable, interest rate differentials for currency hedging.

When holding the Vanguard Total Bond Market (BND) to EUR Hedged ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~76 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 142 months (from January 2012 to October 2023).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 143 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

For full details, click here
Vanguard Total Bond Market (BND) to EUR Hedged ETF: Historical Returns

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?

The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).

Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.

VANGUARD TOTAL BOND MARKET (BND) TO EUR HEDGED ETF

Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized

Time Period: 1 March 1996 - 28 February 2026 (30 Years)

Time Period: 1 January 1950 - 28 February 2026 (~76 years)

30 Years
(1996/03 - 2026/02)

All Data
(1950/01 - 2026/02)

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As of Feb 28, 2026, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 0.42%.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

VANGUARD TOTAL BOND MARKET (BND) TO EUR HEDGED ETF

Annualized Rolling Returns

Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted

Time Period: 1 March 1996 - 28 February 2026 (30 Years)

Time Period: 1 January 1950 - 28 February 2026 (~76 years)

30 Years
(1996/03 - 2026/02)

All Data
(1950/01 - 2026/02)

Eurozone Inflation Adjusted:

Return Chart Capital Chart Table

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

VANGUARD TOTAL BOND MARKET (BND) TO EUR HEDGED ETF

Rolling Returns Chart

Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted

Time Period: 1 January 1950 - 28 February 2026 (~76 years)

Rolling Period:

Over Time

Histogram

Eurozone Inflation Adjusted:

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Worst	Median	Best	Negative Periods
-16.64% Nov 2021 - Oct 2022	+4.43%	+28.81% Oct 1981 - Sep 1982	19.16% 173 out of 903
-24.64% Nov 2021 - Oct 2022	+2.18%	+25.89% Apr 1985 - Mar 1986	33.33% 301 out of 903
-9.42% Nov 2021 - Oct 2023	+4.78%	+21.58% Jul 1984 - Jun 1986	11.22% 100 out of 891
-15.29% Nov 2020 - Oct 2022	+2.58%	+20.50% Sep 1984 - Aug 1986	26.94% 240 out of 891
-6.66% Nov 2020 - Oct 2023	+4.56%	+17.26% Oct 1990 - Sep 1993	8.30% 73 out of 879
-11.78% Nov 2020 - Oct 2023	+2.45%	+14.23% Jul 1984 - Jun 1987	23.21% 204 out of 879
-3.86% Nov 2019 - Oct 2023	+4.88%	+15.49% Jul 1982 - Jun 1986	7.50% 65 out of 867
-8.02% May 2020 - Apr 2024	+2.00%	+13.39% Jul 1982 - Jun 1986	19.72% 171 out of 867
-2.43% Aug 2020 - Jul 2025	+4.89%	+16.07% Sep 1981 - Aug 1986	6.78% 58 out of 855
-6.33% Aug 2020 - Jul 2025	+2.30%	+13.42% Sep 1981 - Aug 1986	19.77% 169 out of 855
-1.89% Nov 2017 - Oct 2023	+4.76%	+12.72% Sep 1981 - Aug 1987	4.86% 41 out of 843
-5.07% Nov 2017 - Oct 2023	+2.48%	+10.44% Sep 1981 - Aug 1987	21.35% 180 out of 843
-1.69% Nov 2016 - Oct 2023	+4.74%	+11.82% Oct 1981 - Sep 1988	3.61% 30 out of 831
-4.61% Nov 2016 - Oct 2023	+2.53%	+9.75% Oct 1981 - Sep 1988	19.98% 166 out of 831
-1.05% Nov 2015 - Oct 2023	+4.79%	+11.70% Jul 1984 - Jun 1992	4.15% 34 out of 819
-3.68% Nov 2015 - Oct 2023	+2.57%	+9.33% Jul 1984 - Jun 1992	17.95% 147 out of 819
-0.76% Nov 2014 - Oct 2023	+4.75%	+12.38% Jul 1984 - Jun 1993	2.97% 24 out of 807
-3.47% Sep 1972 - Aug 1981	+2.46%	+9.85% Jul 1984 - Jun 1993	14.50% 117 out of 807
-0.34% Nov 2012 - Oct 2022	+4.76%	+11.45% Oct 1981 - Sep 1991	1.26% 10 out of 795
-3.36% Oct 1971 - Sep 1981	+2.52%	+8.82% Jul 1982 - Jun 1992	15.22% 121 out of 795
-0.45% Nov 2012 - Oct 2023	+4.72%	+12.02% Oct 1981 - Sep 1992	0.64% 5 out of 783
-2.51% Apr 1971 - Mar 1982	+2.54%	+9.29% Jul 1982 - Jun 1993	16.99% 133 out of 783
+0.02% Nov 2011 - Oct 2023	+4.75%	+12.32% Oct 1981 - Sep 1993	0.00% 0 out of 771
-2.07% Nov 2011 - Oct 2023	+2.62%	+9.48% Oct 1981 - Sep 1993	17.25% 133 out of 771
+0.42% Aug 2012 - Jul 2025	+4.75%	+11.36% Sep 1981 - Aug 1994	0.00% 0 out of 759
-2.27% Sep 1968 - Aug 1981	+2.65%	+8.50% Sep 1981 - Aug 1994	13.70% 104 out of 759
+0.77% Feb 2012 - Jan 2026	+5.10%	+11.40% Oct 1981 - Sep 1995	0.00% 0 out of 747
-1.87% Oct 1967 - Sep 1981	+2.55%	+8.57% Oct 1981 - Sep 1995	11.91% 89 out of 747
+1.15% Sep 2010 - Aug 2025	+4.93%	+10.90% Oct 1981 - Sep 1996	0.00% 0 out of 735
-1.57% Oct 1966 - Sep 1981	+2.44%	+8.12% Oct 1981 - Sep 1996	11.16% 82 out of 735
+1.58% Feb 2010 - Jan 2026	+4.95%	+10.75% Oct 1981 - Sep 1997	0.00% 0 out of 723
-1.65% Oct 1965 - Sep 1981	+2.34%	+8.04% Oct 1981 - Sep 1997	10.51% 76 out of 723
+1.81% Jan 2009 - Dec 2025	+5.04%	+10.71% Oct 1981 - Sep 1998	0.00% 0 out of 711
-1.60% Oct 1964 - Sep 1981	+2.41%	+8.09% Oct 1981 - Sep 1998	7.88% 56 out of 711
+1.95% Nov 2005 - Oct 2023	+5.14%	+9.94% Oct 1981 - Sep 1999	0.00% 0 out of 699
-1.45% Sep 1963 - Aug 1981	+2.37%	+7.42% Oct 1981 - Sep 1999	6.72% 47 out of 699
+1.83% Nov 2004 - Oct 2023	+5.29%	+9.64% Oct 1981 - Sep 2000	0.00% 0 out of 687
-1.33% Oct 1962 - Sep 1981	+2.46%	+7.11% Oct 1981 - Sep 2000	8.01% 55 out of 687
+2.03% Nov 2003 - Oct 2023	+5.43%	+9.77% Oct 1981 - Sep 2001	0.00% 0 out of 675
-1.12% Oct 1961 - Sep 1981	+2.59%	+7.25% Oct 1981 - Sep 2001	5.63% 38 out of 675
+2.72% Nov 1998 - Oct 2023	+5.85%	+8.63% Oct 1981 - Sep 2006	0.00% 0 out of 615
-0.20% Oct 1956 - Sep 1981	+2.98%	+6.18% Oct 1981 - Sep 2006	0.81% 5 out of 615
+3.25% Feb 1996 - Jan 2026	+6.26%	+8.29% Oct 1981 - Sep 2011	0.00% 0 out of 555
+0.36% Sep 1951 - Aug 1981	+3.41%	+5.90% Oct 1981 - Sep 2011	0.00% 0 out of 555

For full details, click here
Vanguard Total Bond Market (BND) to EUR Hedged ETF: Historical Returns

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