Vanguard S&P 500 CAD-hedged (VSP.TO): Rolling Returns

Simulation Settings
Category:
Period: January 1960 - June 2025 (~66 years)
Initial Amount: 1$
Currency: CAD
Inflation: Canada
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When holding the Vanguard S&P 500 CAD-hedged (VSP.TO) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~66 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 141 months (from January 2000 to September 2011).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 142 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?

The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).

Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.

VANGUARD S&P 500 CAD-HEDGED (VSP.TO) ETF
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Time Period: 1 July 1995 - 30 June 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1960 - 30 June 2025 (~66 years)
30 Years
(1995/07 - 2025/06)
All Data
(1960/01 - 2025/06)

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As of Jun 30, 2025, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 12.04%.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

VANGUARD S&P 500 CAD-HEDGED (VSP.TO) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 July 1995 - 30 June 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1960 - 30 June 2025 (~66 years)
30 Years
(1995/07 - 2025/06)
All Data
(1960/01 - 2025/06)
Canada Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

VANGUARD S&P 500 CAD-HEDGED (VSP.TO) ETF
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 January 1960 - 30 June 2025 (~66 years)
Over Time
Histogram
Canada Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-43.00%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009
+14.15% +64.01%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1983
20.90%
162 out of 775
-46.99%
Oct 1973 - Sep 1974
+10.51% +55.54%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1983
25.68%
199 out of 775
-25.95%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009
+12.52% +40.60%
Oct 1985 - Sep 1987
11.93%
91 out of 763
-30.26%
Oct 1972 - Sep 1974
+8.67% +34.77%
Oct 1985 - Sep 1987
22.41%
171 out of 763
-16.23%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2003
+11.89% +36.28%
Aug 1984 - Jul 1987
11.85%
89 out of 751
-18.59%
Oct 1971 - Sep 1974
+8.35% +30.72%
Aug 1984 - Jul 1987
19.31%
145 out of 751
-10.22%
Mar 2005 - Feb 2009
+12.44% +30.74%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1986
10.55%
78 out of 739
-11.86%
Mar 2005 - Feb 2009
+8.37% +27.72%
Feb 1995 - Jan 1999
19.62%
145 out of 739
-6.97%
Mar 2004 - Feb 2009
+12.12% +32.04%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1987
8.53%
62 out of 727
-10.13%
Oct 1969 - Sep 1974
+8.00% +26.41%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1987
22.97%
167 out of 727
-4.95%
Oct 1968 - Sep 1974
+11.58% +26.21%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1987
2.66%
19 out of 715
-10.25%
Oct 1968 - Sep 1974
+7.81% +21.69%
Apr 1994 - Mar 2000
18.32%
131 out of 715
-3.82%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2009
+11.68% +25.48%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1989
1.71%
12 out of 703
-8.00%
Oct 1967 - Sep 1974
+7.62% +20.08%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1989
15.08%
106 out of 703
-4.49%
Mar 2001 - Feb 2009
+10.76% +23.61%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1990
1.88%
13 out of 691
-6.40%
Mar 2001 - Feb 2009
+6.49% +19.66%
Feb 1991 - Jan 1999
17.37%
120 out of 691
-5.20%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2009
+10.38% +22.94%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1991
2.36%
16 out of 679
-7.12%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2009
+6.90% +19.46%
Nov 1990 - Oct 1999
18.70%
127 out of 679
-3.53%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009
+10.50% +22.28%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1992
3.60%
24 out of 667
-5.60%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009
+7.09% +17.92%
Jan 1989 - Dec 1998
17.24%
115 out of 667
-1.70%
Mar 1998 - Feb 2009
+10.25% +21.23%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1993
1.53%
10 out of 655
-3.68%
Mar 1998 - Feb 2009
+7.36% +17.79%
Jan 1989 - Dec 1999
17.40%
114 out of 655
+0.50%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2011
+10.45% +20.70%
Dec 1987 - Nov 1999
0.00%
0 out of 643
-1.81%
Mar 1966 - Feb 1978
+7.55% +17.74%
Dec 1987 - Nov 1999
14.15%
91 out of 643
+1.65%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2012
+10.44% +21.11%
Aug 1984 - Jul 1997
0.00%
0 out of 631
-1.94%
Jun 1969 - May 1982
+7.13% +17.46%
Aug 1984 - Jul 1997
9.19%
58 out of 631
+2.84%
Jan 1999 - Dec 2012
+10.43% +20.84%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1998
0.00%
0 out of 619
-1.83%
Jul 1968 - Jun 1982
+6.98% +17.36%
Aug 1984 - Jul 1998
6.14%
38 out of 619
+3.87%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2015
+10.11% +21.74%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1997
0.00%
0 out of 607
-1.45%
Aug 1967 - Jul 1982
+6.66% +17.83%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1997
1.98%
12 out of 607
+3.96%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2016
+9.84% +21.46%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1998
0.00%
0 out of 595
-0.67%
Mar 1966 - Feb 1982
+6.36% +17.71%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1998
1.85%
11 out of 595
+4.40%
Feb 1999 - Jan 2016
+9.85% +21.46%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1999
0.00%
0 out of 583
-0.61%
Aug 1965 - Jul 1982
+6.25% +17.79%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1999
1.37%
8 out of 583
+5.07%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2018
+10.04% +20.79%
Apr 1982 - Mar 2000
0.00%
0 out of 571
-0.32%
Aug 1964 - Jul 1982
+6.09% +17.01%
Apr 1982 - Mar 2000
0.35%
2 out of 571
+4.62%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2018
+10.45% +20.00%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1999
0.00%
0 out of 559
+0.84%
Aug 1963 - Jul 1982
+6.40% +15.43%
Sep 1981 - Aug 2000
0.00%
0 out of 559
+4.46%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020
+9.98% +19.87%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000
0.00%
0 out of 547
+1.27%
Apr 1962 - Mar 1982
+6.58% +15.17%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000
0.00%
0 out of 547
+6.85%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2025
+11.26% +19.02%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1999
0.00%
0 out of 487
+3.91%
Jan 1960 - Dec 1984
+7.50% +13.34%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1999
0.00%
0 out of 487
+9.10%
Oct 1992 - Sep 2022
+12.02% +15.94%
Jul 1970 - Jun 2000
0.00%
0 out of 427
+5.60%
Dec 1961 - Nov 1991
+8.11% +10.19%
Jan 1975 - Dec 2004
0.00%
0 out of 427
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